FlyTheNest

SpinningHugo

howsillyofme1 wrote:Swindon North has a swing against Labour....think that shows it is all over

Terrible result

Indeed.

It is so bad that it makes a Con majority a remote possibility.

Forget it people. Tonight is over.

Postmortem tomorrow.

SpinningHugo

The YouGov is not an exit poll. A recontact poll.

As someone says on twitter. If you are too ashamed to tell anyone you've voted Tory, you know you are wrong.

SpinningHugo

Yougov exit poll different

CON 284 MPs, LAB 263, LIBS 31, SNP 48, UKIP 2, PLAID 3, GREEN 1

http://www.sunnation.co.uk/up-split-cre ... lls-close/

SpinningHugo

RobertSnozers wrote:Well Hugo's lost his money

A silver lining?

Frankly, I do not understand the country I live in.

As is known, I did and do not approve of our leader, but this looks so disastrous that no leader could have stopped it.

SpinningHugo

Go on twitter, type in pencil and discover hundreds of kippers urging people to vote using a pen so that their vote cannot be changed.

And these people get a vote too.

SpinningHugo

Want to scare yourself? Try http://www.ncpolitics.uk/2015/05/shy-tory-factor-2015.html/ I don't believe it. With regard to the betting, even the bookies don't believe the odds they are offering Labour largest party looks value at 4/1, given the polls. If they are accurate, Labour is largest. http://...

SpinningHugo

YouGov claim the swing in the marginals is only 2.5%, although the basis for this claim is unclear. It may be based on the Midlands sample of their last large poll. This would give the Tories a seats advantage. Kellner and other forecasts are assuming the polls are wrong and the Tories actually hav...

SpinningHugo

Voted, fairly quiet down there. Safe Labour, with only a Green and Labour teller.

I wrote a long post explaining my reasons for voting Labour, and my continued worries and concerns, but decided the latter can wait until 10 pm.

SpinningHugo

Last time, one factor was the incumbency factor. Sitting MPs beat the overall swing. Now, this might be because most sitting MPs attract a certain loyalty, and so will do better than polling suggests. Or it might be that the 'ground war' makes a different, which would mean that Labour should do bett...

SpinningHugo

RobertSnozers wrote:
How does Scotland affect Tory chances of a majority?

Any chance for anyone.

Tory majority has always been far fetched.

SpinningHugo

Evening everyone So everyone, pollsters and election forecasters, are predicting the Tories as biggest party with some even suggesting a majority, not even obtained in 2010! Can someone explains what gives? I can possibly see a narrow seat margin because of the SNP effect but am not at all convince...

SpinningHugo

Evening everyone So everyone, pollsters and election forecasters, are predicting the Tories as biggest party with some even suggesting a majority, not even obtained in 2010! Can someone explains what gives? I can possibly see a narrow seat margin because of the SNP effect but am not at all convince...

SpinningHugo

The betting "men" don't have a clue either. Basically both Dave and Ed are evens with most bookies. Ed was very slight favourite last night with some, this morning it's Dave very slightly ahead. Meaning there should be money to be made. I have EM as PM at 5/4 (now into evens) and Labour m...

SpinningHugo

OK, prediction time just to get it out of the way. I think Labour will win around 40 seats from the Tories and ten from LibDems but lose all 41 Scottish seats, leaving them with around 267-69. The Tories will lose the 40-odd to Labour but gain around five from the LibDems leaving them on 270-72. Th...

SpinningHugo

From last night's ComRes poll for the Daily Mail Con 35% (+2) Lab 32% (-1) LD 9% (+1) UKIP 14% (+1) Green 4% (-3) This would be a poll Ashcroft would be proud of : Low sample size and strange distribution Weighted total 924 of which 189 (19%) didn't know or refused to answer so CON 250 Lab 231 (UKI...

SpinningHugo

I have been trying to understand why the betting market has shifted again: it was moving nicely Labour last week, but we are back to Cameron being very slight odds on to stay. The polls haven't flickered. Now, maybe it is mug punter money. Richer people bet on politics and they bet how they want thi...

SpinningHugo

Willow904 wrote: He probably won't lose his seat,.

Well...

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/bri ... ning-party" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Very tight.

SpinningHugo

Hmmm. Clegg I never expected us to take that. Lovely to do so, as it would have killed off a Con and LD coalition but the gap is too big, and if you know Sheffield Hallam you'll know it is Tory territory really. But. That is quite a big gap, and not very encouraging. It also shows Con + LD tactical ...

SpinningHugo

The Health and Social Care Act doesn't apply in Scotland. Health is devolved.

SpinningHugo

So while our "impartial" media do the conservatives job for them by banging on interminably about the Scot Nats..................Dave and the orange tory have obviously worked out a fall back position prior to the election. No arrogance or sense of entitlement there then! The curious thin...

SpinningHugo

SNP and budgets.

My guess (and this is all it is) is that the SNP will find any excuse they can to vote against Labour's budget. It will all be part of their narrative of opposing austerity and standing up for Scotland.

Don't vote Nat.

SpinningHugo

rebeccariots2 wrote:Humphrys 'interviewing' Miliband on Radio 4. Grrrrrh.

Interruption after interruption after interruption.

I listen to radio 3 in the mornings now.

It improves the quality of my life immeasurably.

SpinningHugo

. And in terms of people making offensive remarks, I'm often amazed at the utterly innocuous comments that other posters become enraged at. This is without a doubt the most polite, friendly online community that I have EVER been a part of. Everyone tries so hard not to offend each other and to resp...

SpinningHugo

Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB 11 hrs11 hours ago Poll of Polls from Prof John Curtice in S Tel has CON 1% - which would lead to CON 274 seats LAB 292 seats http://bit.ly/1GQuwBe" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; If people are interested in betting, my view is that Smithson is r...

SpinningHugo

The thing with the stone is the media has to talk about Labours policies to mock it. Finally shut the tossers up about the SNP and post election wrangling. Talking of which, if Cameron can't secure a majority without SNP/Labour, the second the SNP state they will vote his government down he has to ...

SpinningHugo

What are we all doing on Thursday night then? I'll be staying in quietly watching the results on TV. The Labour part post-election party I went to in 92 (in a marginal we managed to win) was so depressing that I have no attended one since. For the avoidance of doubt, this won't be 92. EM will be PM.

SpinningHugo

Mind you, it does look a bit like a tombstone. And that isn't a good look.

SpinningHugo

It is not so much the stone as the pledges I object to. They are hopelessly open textured (compare the 97 pledge list). They are just we pledge 'more loveliness'.

SpinningHugo

Good blog post from the LSE on why the Fixed Term Parliament Act introduced by the Coalition has made it quite possible for Labour to run a minority Government if necessary and why the many threats and predictions of doom from various sources are unlikely to happen. http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsa...

SpinningHugo

Corrected ;) AK, I don't think that is true. As soon as the Lib Dems went into coalition the tone of the Graun changed. You know as well as me that there are lots and lots of stupid people writing for the Graun who dislike the compromises government brought and wanted a leftie alternative. The kind...

SpinningHugo

All those snide Wintour and Watt articles about "weird Ed", the complete output of John Harris for five years, the constant use of that bloody bacon sandwich picture and the "In Praise of .... yet another flipping Tory" were just a ruse to throw us off balance then? Well, succee...

SpinningHugo

It was obvious the Graun was going to back Labour, and has been for years. All those snide Wintour and Watt articles about "weird Ed", the complete output of John Harris for five years, the constant use of that bloody bacon sandwich picture and the "In Praise of .... yet another flip...

SpinningHugo

It was obvious the Graun was going to back Labour, and has been for a few months Corrected ;) AK, I don't think that is true. As soon as the Lib Dems went into coalition the tone of the Graun changed. You know as well as me that there are lots and lots of stupid people writing for the Graun who dis...

SpinningHugo

It was obvious the Graun was going to back Labour, and has been for years.

SpinningHugo

I know people dislike this about politics, but one of the key political skills is to be able not to answer any question asked. Whilst I agree, Hugo, that this is one of the "key political skills", it shouldn't be - diplomacy with people is one thing, but there is a huge gap between being ...

SpinningHugo

I am not as happy as some here about the ruling out of any 'deal'. Probably because I fully expect EM to be PM (now only available at 4/6, get on Lab minority at 7/4.) We already knew there was going to be no coalition, both have ruled it out. We already know the SNP will support Labour in any budge...

SpinningHugo

Legitimacy If Lab + SNP were a majority, and Labour formed a minority government (still, despite today's polls, the most likely outcome in my view) would that be a legitimate government? Of course it would be. Those are the rules, and so long as we have a United Kingdom the Scottish MPs get as much ...

SpinningHugo

The Green figure certainly looks rogue. Not bothered at all by the Scotland being out of line: Scotland is a tiny share.
Overall it is the trend that matters, and the trend is squeaky bum.

Does anyone live in a Lab target marginal?

SpinningHugo

diGriz wrote: The New Statesman's election endorsement: why it has to be Labour
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/20 ... -be-labour

That is a bollocks endorsement.

Fools.

There are times and places to be critical. Not now.

SpinningHugo

Are this lot any good? Lib Dems: 11%. No. Appears to be an outfit that uses telephone polling and telephone polls have tended to favour the Cons. They are online pollsters. As this is their first poll, we have no idea about them. Pattern of journals not getting the results they want from inhouse po...

SpinningHugo

Ed the story

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i am not quite sure it is wholly accurate to only describe the author of the State in Capitalist Society as a removals man.

SpinningHugo

StephenDolan wrote:A preview of the Brand Miliband meeting.
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"Hard yards".

American Ed is back.

SpinningHugo

it is one of life's oddities that the Tories cling to a voting system that screws them over. More fool them. They're not clinging to it - they'd have gerrymandered the boundaries if it weren't for their backbenchers short-sightedly (for them) torpedoing Lords reform (which, admittedly, was a good t...

SpinningHugo

On PR, this by Skinner on election night 1992 about the liberals and PR is very good, if not seen

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he wasn't wrong.

SpinningHugo

The system is fine, it is dealing with a very strange use case and it still stands up. Cameron is PM, until he believes he cannot form a government. Then Miliband gets to try and form a government. Whether Cameron tries to get his queens speech through or gives up earlier depends on how close to th...

SpinningHugo

@fedup59 - A lot to agree with there, thanks for taking the time to set all that out. I wonder what happens if the Tories are the largest party but cannot get the numbers for a majority? Even if, under those circumstances, Labour can form a minority government, the media and a chunk of the populati...

SpinningHugo

I'm wondering if Owen Jones' pragmatic 'Labour aren't radical enough but we must get the Tories out now' viewpoint being expressed will become reflected by Russell Brand? I shouldn't put too much faith in Brand. If his following of young people listened to him about not voting, there's a strong pos...

SpinningHugo

Looks like an outlier, and the individual seats look more consistent with the national swing in other polls.

Polls are of GB, not UK, and in GB Labour got 30% in 2010. Nobody but nobody thinks there will be no improvement on that, and so this is just rubbish.

SpinningHugo

If that ICM poll is true, it is in many ways bad for the Tories. The Tories have two, last, faint hopes. The first is either 'shy Tories' (now adjusted for in polling) or a 1992 style late swing. Neither very likely. The second is winning back the kippers. The Kippers only got 3% in 2010, and dispr...

SpinningHugo

If that ICM poll is true, it is in many ways bad for the Tories. The Tories have two, last, faint hopes. The first is either 'shy Tories' (now adjusted for in polling) or a 1992 style late swing. Neither very likely. The second is winning back the kippers. The Kippers only got 3% in 2010, and dispro...

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