FlyTheNest

SpinningHugo

Top betting tip Labour minority government, 13/8 http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/next-government" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; Miliband's rejection of any deals with the SNP, along with Clegg's rejection of any deal with anyon...

SpinningHugo

Top betting tip Labour minority government, 13/8 http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/next-government" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; Miliband's rejection of any deals with the SNP, along with Clegg's rejection of any deal with anyone...

SpinningHugo

The Bristol West number is v good. Lib Dems doing worse than they would hope.

The Tory numbers less good. Around a 3% swing. Around GB average but would hope for better in Eng.

SpinningHugo

Can someone do the (un-)weighting on these polls? What were the scores before all the magic jiggery pokery they do? Remember. With the SNP winning all or nearly all Scottish seats, the numbers that matter are in ENGLAND ONLY. Scotland is gone. If there is an England swing of 4%, EM is comfortably P...

SpinningHugo

Can someone do the (un-)weighting on these polls? What were the scores before all the magic jiggery pokery they do? Remember. With the SNP winning all or nearly all Scottish seats, the numbers that matter are in ENGLAND ONLY. Scotland is gone. If there is an England swing of 4%, EM is comfortably PM...

SpinningHugo

Of course there is a mens rea requirement. I don't mean to be rude, but this is stuff I know about. No there isn't. Wikipedia will do on whether there is always a mens rea requirement: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strict_liability_%28criminal%29" onclick="window.open(this.href);return fal...

SpinningHugo

But, I think it is arguable that by tweeting pictures of completed postal ballots saying "isn't this great" you induce others to do the same (ie post pictures of their completed ballots). And that is an offence. Equally, it could be argued that it is not inducement, so it is not an offenc...

SpinningHugo

Oops. Dan Hodges retweeted Chris Terry @CJTerry · 22m 22 minutes ago Chris Terry retweeted BuzzFeed UK Politics @DPJHodges @MarkReckless https://twitter.com/BuzzFeedUKPol/status/591192542865129472" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; … Fear the Electoral Commission might have ru...

SpinningHugo

I think it is now obvious that, barring something almost unimaginable, the SNP are going to make big gains. But there are a striking number of anecdotal accounts from north of the border re "shy unionists" and non-SNP people preferring to keep their heads down rather than risk abuse, it i...

SpinningHugo

I fear another factor than the SNP could defeat Labour, and that's voter registration. It could well lose Labour the handful of marginals it needs to squeak past the Conservatives as largest party. That is a big risk. The voter registration scandal, and it is a scandal, will deliver the Tories some...

SpinningHugo

I remain a tad sceptical of the Scottish polling, but if the SNP *do* get a (near) clean sweep next month then I think a PM Miliband could do worse than give Scotland FFA and be done with it. Let's see how well Nat support holds up when they, finally, can't blame everybody but themselves for *every...

SpinningHugo

doubled.

SpinningHugo

I've been toying with the idea of a bet on a Labour majority, you can get 25-1 out to 33-1 with quite a few of the betting sites. Could be worth a punt? You can get 47/1 on betfair http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/overall-majority" onclick="win...

SpinningHugo

Best odds, if seriously considering a bet, are now evens http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/prime-minister-after-general-election" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; I took 5/4 last week, but plan no further investment. The odds market...

SpinningHugo

Best odds, if seriously considering a bet, are now evens http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/prime-minister-after-general-election" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; I took 5/4 last week, but plan no further investment. The odds market ...

SpinningHugo

I see our friend Hugo has turned up as a character in an Asimov SF novel with the same initials... I have indeed Rog. I'll probably last about two minutes as the Graun no longer allows you to post using a VPN, so I cannot hide. Once you report me, I'll be gone. So, tonight is the debate that I told...

SpinningHugo

There's nothing 'competitive' , good, necessary or desirable about for-profit enterprises driving off choices by monopolising the playing field using the economy everyone has to use leaving customers who need a product or service having one or a few at most monster corporations delivering that for-...

SpinningHugo

There's nothing 'competitive' , good, necessary or desirable about for-profit enterprises driving off choices by monopolising the playing field using the economy everyone has to use leaving customers who need a product or service having one or a few at most monster corporations delivering that for-...

SpinningHugo

Hugo, I hope you don't feel ganged up on, that certainly was not my intent with my simplistic post. I've found it an interesting thought provoking discussion, the kind friends sit down in the pub with a pint and toss around between them. Sorry if it's not come across like that to all. Not at all. S...

SpinningHugo

What they shared, however, was much more important, and one thing was a market based pragmatism. I think Balls accepts that too. It is that view that I still hold to. I think we should pursue this another day but feel the need to make a point. Market based pragmatism, not just in the UK, led to the...

SpinningHugo

Yes, its all been a slow and tortuous process but that is the price that has had to be paid for keeping the party basically united. (again, this was all true with Thatcher pre-1979 as well) That really is a very very good piece by Behr indeed - though it maybe could have mentioned Balls totally tan...

SpinningHugo

I agree we can't just return to the 1970s/80s, but TE's analysis is fundamentally correct. 2008 and its fallout has wiped out the platform from with New Labour governed (and often very successfully, I'm certainly not going to disagree with you there) We need something new and Ed realises that. The ...

SpinningHugo

Okay SpinningHugo, I appreciate some of your argument but you appear to be forgetting a major factor, i.e. ease of entry to a market. Where it's difficult or requires huge start-up costs then you're likely to see cartels. Even in more easily entered markets larger corporations are prone to undercut...

SpinningHugo

Aldi and Lidl are new entrants to the cartel. You or I couldn't start up an international supermarket chain. They are large players expanding to get their share of the cartel action in the UK. Tesco and others are suffering because they are being undercut, not be free market competition, but by oth...

SpinningHugo

The supermarkets were declared not to be a cartel by the captured regulator. How can any sane person see three or four large companies dominating high percentages of total trade and not see monopoly? That's the blooming definition, fgs! Also, we used to have a powerful Monopolies and Mergers commis...

SpinningHugo

Fixing the price of things has been tried before, in lots of times and places. It doesn't work. It is not a free market as described by ideologues. They simply ignore what they don't want to see : five or six companies control food sales and distribution, four or five banks control the retail banki...

SpinningHugo

Predistribution and price fixing. The classic examples of predistribution that Labour has (tentatively) put forward that were not the policy of the last Labour government, are. (i) The energy price freeze. (ii) A rail price freeze for a year, with a fare cap to come. (iii) Tax rebates to employers p...

SpinningHugo

The Long Read at the Guardian. The making of Ed Miliband http://gu.com/p/47g3z" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; It is a very good profile. It is unbiased, I think, and allows people who don't think he is very good as leader (eg me) to nod along, as well as those who take a d...

SpinningHugo

The Long Read at the Guardian. The making of Ed Miliband http://gu.com/p/47g3z" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; It is a very good profile. It is unbiased, I think, and allows people who don't think he is very good as leader (eg me) to nod along, as well as those who take a d...

SpinningHugo

Nice punchy explanation of the stupidity of latest 'right to buy' foolishness

http://www.housing.org.uk/media/blog/ex ... tractions/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

A free pony policy if ever I saw one.

SpinningHugo

Not something that will bother most, but the manifesto is full of typos. It isn't a long document, takes no time to read, and so should have been proof read to a much higher standard. Looks like this was being written right up to the last minute.

SpinningHugo

yahyah wrote:Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB ·
PaddyPower: http://bit.ly/I8PkIO" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; Poll boost for LAB sees odds of Edm being returned PM fall from 5/4 to Evens over 24 hours

So money's going on Ed ?

Mine is. I just got Ed M to be PM after the election at 5/4.

SpinningHugo

How and why do Tories think that Miliband's ability to pull women more attractive than he is, before he was married, reflects badly on him? Bizarre. Not only bizarre, but incompetent. Their campaign is shockingly bad. These people are useless. It never ceases to amaze. (I'd be a great Tory, before a...

SpinningHugo

If we get either Rees-Mogg or Morgan we'll be doing well.

I hope, but don't expect.

SpinningHugo

frightful_oik wrote:There's going to be a lot riding on getting the vote out. Am I correct in thinking that Labour has a better organisation for this than the others?

Factored in as this is a factor that remains constant (unless we think Labour's organisation is better significantly than in 2010?)

SpinningHugo

Soubry is bound to go, but I don't think she is high profile.

What about Charlotte Leslie?

SpinningHugo

http://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/find-information-by-subject/elections-and-referendums/upcoming-elections-and-referendums Counting arrangements (preliminary). Now I need to work out when the perfect time for a couple of hours kip is without missing notable Portillos. Are there many Tory Portil...

SpinningHugo

"Remember the relief we felt when Scotland voted no. Why was that? Because towards the end, having paid only intermittent attention to the enormity of the decision, we awoke to it and realised – I think with shock – how close we had come to relegating ourselves from the Premier League of nation...

SpinningHugo

Stunningly naive piece by the execrable Zoe Williams on today's Graun. Why would she,and others purportedly of the left, think the SNP has any interest in a successful United Kingdom government of the left? I don't believe Sturgeon has the slightest interest in a bigger UK picture. But then, I thin...

SpinningHugo

Stunningly naive piece by the execrable Zoe Williams on today's Graun. Why would she,and others purportedly of the left, think the SNP has any interest in a successful United Kingdom government of the left?

SpinningHugo

NB the last line of the Sturgeon memo

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politic ... -memo.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

SpinningHugo

This on the Tory tactic of boosting the Nats is interesting, it is written by a Tory http://www.capx.co/the-tories-are-working-for-an-snp-victory/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; It is, I think, prescient as to what May 8th will bring. Cameron will make his big appeal for a ...

SpinningHugo

It doesn't really matter if it is real or not. It is true. True in the sense that the best result for the Nats is a Tory win. The Nats want Scottish independence. All the social democratic stuff is just an add on. They are a nationalist party. That means that the best result for them is another Tory...

SpinningHugo

This is unwatchable.

Everyone loses.

SpinningHugo

AnatolyKasparov wrote:In *some* respects, parliament continues until 5pm today (that is when online services are switched off for HoC employees, for example)

What is illegal about anyone doing a broadcast there? What law is broken?

He can't claim to be an MP (nor can anyone), but where does he do that?

SpinningHugo

"It could be illegal.

Bonnie Greer has Tweeted that Labour is consulting constitutional lawyers - dunno if it's true."

On what possible basis does the UK constitutional expert Greer think this.

Grubby politics it was, but governments always try and use the trappings of office like this.

SpinningHugo

1) Paxman ate Cameron alive. The idea that he was biased is a joke in my view. Cameron got just as tough a time as Miliband and didn't cope with it well. 2) Burley was far more interventionist with Miliband, but the reason was clear. The audience section with Cameron was very flat. He was given blan...

SpinningHugo

frightful_oik wrote:All Paxman did was aim personal insults at Ed. I found the whole thing very biased. Utterly deferential to Cameron; Just a series of ad hominems for EM.

I don't agree.

Paxman ate Cameron and spat out the bones.

SpinningHugo

frightful_oik wrote:All Paxman did was aim personal insults at Ed. I found the whole thing very biased. Utterly deferential to Cameron; Just a series of ad hominems for EM.

I don't agree.

Paxman ate Cameron and spat out the bones.

SpinningHugo

Odds on Labour majority just shrank

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/bri ... l-majority" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

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