FlyTheNest

rearofthestore

Oh dear. Seem to be a few duplicates. https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CDmc__zWEAAnWFN.png Well that can't be true because that nice Karen Brady says all the signatures have been verified! Baroness Karren Brady dismissed claims that businesses had been "ambushed" in to signing a letter on the ...

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Re ICM poll They have now published two sets of figures on their website (this week and last week) simultaneously. http://www.icmunlimited.com/data/media/pdf/2015_guardian_campaignpoll3.pdf" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; is this weeks data and is not that remarkable other t...

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BBC News seem to have allocated a sympathetic female reporter to cover the Tory campaign. (Not sure what her name is, older, thin faced blonde/grey hair, she was described as being allocated to the Tory campaign last night). Labour/Ed get the ever-smirking Ian Watson. Carol Walker I think. I once d...

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ICM poll: Tory 3% lead Tories: 35% (+1) Lab: 32% (nc) Ukip: 13% (+2) LD: 9% (-1) Green 5% (nc) Weren't ICM supposed to be the cream of the polling community once. They don't seem to publish their poll data until at least a week after the headline figures are released so it is only possible to scrut...

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Tonight's Mail on Sunday headline the most ludicrous yet
and again to cheer us up

Tim Shipman ‏@ShippersUnbound 3m3 minutes ago
First sign of proper Tory jitters this evening in Sunday Times. Two donors on the record denouncing the campaign, Cam and calling for Boris

rearofthestore

Third night on the run Labour lead by 2 on YouGov

Lord Ashcroft ‏@LordAshcroft 18s19 seconds ago
YouGov/SundayTimes poll LAB 34% CON 32% UKIP 14% LDEM 9% GRN 6%

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Just to add to every-bodies disquiet about polling just seen this exchange between Lord Ashcroft and Smithson about ComRes Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB 25m25 minutes ago Just been called by ComRes for political poll - the 7th time since GE2010 that my wife or I have been contacted by pollster on our ...

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Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB · 2m 2 minutes ago Ashcroft CON hold Britstol NW, Colne Valley, High Peak LAB gain Bristol W Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB · 4m 4 minutes ago Ashcroft: UKIP gain Thurrock but lose Rochester Chart with other seats: https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/591875434029174784&quo...

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For info

Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB 12s12 seconds ago
Tonight’s YouGov poll for the Sun sees LAB retain its 2% lead

Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB 22s22 seconds ago
Tonight’s YouGov figures
CON 33%, LAB 35%, LD 8%, UKIP 13%, GRN 6%

Edit to add figures

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NeilMckt ‏@neilmckt 31 mins31 minutes ago Trying not to get excited about this ENGLAND ONLY data Ipsos-MORI LAB 37 CON 35 UKIP 11 LD 8 6.7% CON to LAB if true massive for Labour Hi OhSo Saw this too but can't find any backup data elsewhere even on the ipsos-mori website. Hope its true though.

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Can someone do the (un-)weighting on these polls? What were the scores before all the magic jiggery pokery they do? Remember. With the SNP winning all or nearly all Scottish seats, the numbers that matter are in ENGLAND ONLY. Scotland is gone. If there is an England swing of 4%, EM is comfortably P...

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So Survation poll tonight suggests that the Labour vote overall is down by nearly 1% since last election.
More garbage.

rearofthestore

Here it is. Smacks of complete rubbish to me Survation. ‏@Survation 1m1 minute ago NEW: Survation/@DailyMirror (chg vs 17/04) CON 33% (-1); LAB 29% (-4); UKIP 18% (+1); LD 10% (+3); SNP 4% (NC); GRE 4% (+1); AP 1% (-1) Lab & Tories neck and neck ... in the north! :rofl: The first question under...

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Here it is. Smacks of complete rubbish to me

Survation. ‏@Survation 1m1 minute ago
NEW: Survation/@DailyMirror (chg vs 17/04) CON 33% (-1); LAB 29% (-4); UKIP 18% (+1); LD 10% (+3); SNP 4% (NC); GRE 4% (+1); AP 1% (-1)

rearofthestore

I wonder what the story is around the disappearing poll

Britain Elects ‏@britainelects 7m7 minutes ago
We've just seen Survation publish their new poll for the Daily Mirror then quickly delete it...Strange.

rearofthestore

Breath again

YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead by one: CON 33%, LAB 34%, LD 7%, UKIP 14%, GRN 5%

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TechnicalEphemera wrote:Suffering the usual bout of pre You Gov poll nerves.

No Smithson/Newton Dunn teasers so far tonight so I can't put the wind up everybody.

rearofthestore

I thought he might start to distance himself from Shapps

Labour Press Team retweeted
Ben Glaze ‏@benglaze 3m3 minutes ago
#Cameron dodges "full confidence" question over Grant #Shapps #GE2015 #Tory

rearofthestore

As I suggested last night re 'exiting' YouGov poll, look at the detail and it doesn't stack up. Voting Intention Age Group 18-24 Conservative 32% Labour 30% (Yes really!) Voting Intention Midlands /Wales Conservative 40% Labour 32% (Seems Unlikely) Bullshit poll I think. It depends entirely on the ...

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As I suggested last night re 'exiting' YouGov poll, look at the detail and it doesn't stack up.
Voting Intention Age Group 18-24 Conservative 32% Labour 30% (Yes really!)
Voting Intention Midlands /Wales Conservative 40% Labour 32% (Seems Unlikely)
Bullshit poll I think.

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frightful_oik wrote:YouGov:
CON – 35% (+1)
LAB – 34% (-1)
UKIP – 13% (-)
LDEM – 7% (-)
GRN – 5% (-)

Well hardly that exiting!

rearofthestore

rebeccariots2 wrote:Sorry rearofthestore. We seem to be in the same news space yet again ... not deliberately copying you, honest.

I believe you. Honest I do.

rearofthestore

Just to cheer everybody up.

Andrew Neil ‏@afneil 5m5 minutes ago
Spoke to major Tory donor tonight. "Tory campaign useless. Cameron's heart not in it. Not looking good".

rearofthestore

frightful_oik wrote:If it's exciting the yougov is probably an outlier.

Absolutely right.
Funny how YouGov polls only tend to be 'exciting' (in the eyes of the Sun) if they show a Tory lead!

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Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB 29 mins29 minutes ago @mcollinsucl The daily YouGov is usually Tweeted at about 10.30pm - though could be earlier if the Sun politics team is excited Jeez. I wonder what that poll is going to say. No, no, don't tell me. Given what's gone on previously a detailed analysis...

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ohsocynical wrote:
Pollster @Nye_Rick:

Ed Miliband becomes Prime Minister in "eight out of ten" scenarios

http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p02pdmyp …
I'm sticking with this.

So am I!

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Bad news tonight I think.

Tom Newton DunnVerified account
‏@tnewtondunn

Could fears of a Labour-SNP power sharing deal be the big #GE2015 game changer? We have an interesting @YouGov poll later.

rearofthestore

Well you can't argue with this

Laura Kuenssberg ‏@bbclaurak 30m30 minutes ago
Tebbit suggests Cameron is unlike politicians of previous generations who were 'real men' ...OUCH!

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First of the day

Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB 17m17 minutes ago
LAB retakes the lead with TNS

LAB 34% (+2), CON 32% (-2), LD 8% (-1), UKIP 15% (+1), GREEN 5% (0), OTHER 6% (+1

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Lord Ashcroft Ashcroft National Poll, 17-19 April: CON 34%, LAB 30%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 13%, GRN 4%. Details on @ConHome, 4pm: Yeah, right! :lol: Labour on the same percentage as the last GE - indeed, a likely story (not) I notice on the Vote UK forum a couple of LibDem posters getting really excited b...

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Second Labour lead of the day

Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB 2m2 minutes ago

LAB moves to 2% lead with Populus
Lab 34 (nc) Con 32 (-1) LD 9 (nc) UKIP 15 (+1)

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and there's more.... Dr Éoin Clarke ‏@LabourEoin 2m2 minutes ago #Breaking..... Labour race into a 3% lead with YouGov tonight. 36% is their joint highest YouGov score for 200 days Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB 3m3 minutes ago The entire fieldwork for the S Times YouGov poll took place after Thursday'...

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More like it, I think I want to believe this one.

Lord Ashcroft ‏@LordAshcroft 16s16 seconds ago

YouGov/Sunday Times poll LAB 36% CON 33% UKIP 13% LDEM 8% GRNS 5%

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NumbrCrunchrPolitics ‏@NCPoliticsUK 19 mins19 minutes ago Opinium/Observer: CON 36 (=) LAB 32 (-2) LIB 8 (+1) UKIP 13 (+2) GRN 5 (-1) Fieldwork 16th-17th Tabs http://ourinsight.opinium.co.uk/survey-results/political-polling-16th-april-2015" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; … ...

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For @YahYah Lib Dems give up in South Tyneside – no candidates stand in council elections http://www.shieldsgazette.com/news/local-news/lib-dems-give-up-in-south-tyneside-no-candidates-stand-in-council-elections-1-7209756 Thanks OhSo. Have to admit though that my Lib Dem obsession has eased a tad o...

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Interesting tweet from Kevin Maguire of the Mirror

Kevin Maguire ‏@Kevin_Maguire Apr 10

Told George Osborne's elbowed his way onto Sunday's Andrew Marr show to try and revive the Tory campaign

That worked well then!

rearofthestore

Next poll now up Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB 4m4 minutes ago Tonight's YouGov for the Sunday Times Con 34% Lab 34% LD 7% UKIP 13% Greens 6% SNP 5% with this finding Mike Smithson retweeted charles hymas ‏@charleshymas 6m6 minutes ago #sundaytimes #yougov Tories widely disliked for going negative; mo...

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More reasons to suspect Opinium poll Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB 34m34 minutes ago Fieldwork for tonight's Opinium poll took place before latest YouGov poll & at exactly same as Populus & Survation which both had LAB leads and Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB 33m33 minutes ago What's really weird...

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Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB 34m34 minutes ago ENGLAND & WALES ONLY figures from today's Opinium poll CON 38.16% LAB 34.05% LD 7.42% UKIP 11.66% A CON to LAB swing of 3% since GE10 This suggests Conservative vote down less than 1% since 2010 (in fact 0.68%) which just does not seem to ring true ...

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The best laid plans eh!

Alastair Campbell ‏@campbellclaret 48s49 seconds ago

Hold on!!! According to @LyntonKCrosby plans this was the day the TORIES go into double digit poll leads. Oops http://www.alastaircampbell.org" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

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Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB 6m6 minutes ago

Ed overtakes Dave in Survation approval ratings

Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB 2m2 minutes ago

Methinks that Mr. Milband can expect even more ferocious attacks on him

Methinks he might be right!

rearofthestore

This is definately a trend

Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB 39s39 seconds ago

Mirror Survation poll has LAB lead up to 4% Changes on April 3rd LAB 35%+2 CON 31% -1 UKIP 15% -3 LD 9% = GRN 4% +2

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Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB 2m2 minutes ago

LAB takes 6% lead wth Panelbase LAB 37% (+4%), CON 31% (-2%), UKIP 16% (-1%), LD 8% (+1%), GRN 4% (-1%
5 retweets 1 favorite

I do hope this trend continues. What will NickyB make of it?

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So Nick Clegg says

Let’s look at maybe ending non-dom status after a certain period of time.

Obviously 215 years isn't long enough!

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The BBC have tweeted at least four times in quick succession about the new Labour Non-Dom policy contradicting what Ed Balls said in January. Jonny Dymond the BBC correspondent following Cameron has even said this. BBC Politics retweeted Jonny Dymond ‏@JonnyDymond 43m43 minutes ago Gosh. This not-ve...

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James Maxwell @jamesmaxwell86
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Sturgeon looking uncharacteristically uncomfortable here. Labour strategists in the spin room are delighted with Murphy's performance.

Just maybe Labour made the right choice of Scottish Leader.

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Paul Waugh ‏@paulwaugh 10m10 minutes ago What does it say about current Labour party that Tony Blair is not making his 'Brexit' warning speech tday in a marginal seat? It says Labour has moved well on from his days - that the party has got its own people, plans and activities in place in the margin...

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Mirror Politics ‏@MirrorPolitics 4m4 minutes ago Ed Miliband's support surges to new high after victory in BOTH TV debates http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/ed-milibands-support-surges-new-5454911" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; … I'm assuming this must be the Survation ...

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AS Q: Some of the firms quoted in your FT advert, Siemens, Kellogg’s and Nomura, are unhappy about being quoted by you. Miliband says Labour has just quoted what they said in public. What a fuss over nothing ! Business leader says something in public. Business leader then complains when their publi...

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