FlyTheNest

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Laura Kuenssberg ‏@bbclaurak 52s52 seconds ago

Swindon North - Conservatives hold this important marginal - Cameron launched campaign in Swindon and tories campaigning hard there

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Ross Hawkins ‏@rosschawkins 2m2 minutes ago

Recount in Bradford W - Galloway tipped to have lost seat

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Mark Ferguson ‏@Markfergusonuk 3m3 minutes ago

Just heard Labour are way ahead in Norwich South, which BBC says is going Green

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Peter Jukes ‏@peterjukes 2m2 minutes ago

Local correspondents now predicting Edinburgh keeps THREE Labour seats. This is madness

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Smaller swing in Washington 2.7% to LAB

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Big swing in Sunderland Central 5.5% to Labour

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Surely swing CON to LAB in Houghton is only 3.9%

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Disaster!!!

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So there all wrong or its goodbye Cameron

Alastair Campbell retweeted
David Clark ‏@David_K_Clark 15m15 minutes ago

For Cameron to have a realistic chance of staying on as PM, every one of the final 11 polls would need to be wrong.

Please let it be so.

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So Ashcroft's last poll which has a huge sample is much more believable. Final Ashcroft National Poll, 3k sample, 5-6 May: CON 33%, LAB 33%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 11%, GRN 6%. I get the feeling that all these polls with big samples (which show the Labour vote increasing or stabilising whilst the Conservati...

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So not so good for the CONS as suggested

Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB 7s7 seconds ago
Sky News says tonight's YouGov is CON 34 LAB 34

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What is your best guess as to the correct figure? Do you think Labour is ahead in vote share? I think Labour is slightly behind, around 1-2% at a guess. That still makes EM PM. Constitutionally, a Labour minority government is perfectly legitimate, and for me getting the Tories out is the primary g...

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From last night's ComRes poll for the Daily Mail Con 35% (+2) Lab 32% (-1) LD 9% (+1) UKIP 14% (+1) Green 4% (-3) This would be a poll Ashcroft would be proud of : Low sample size and strange distribution Weighted total 924 of which 189 (19%) didn't know or refused to answer so CON 250 Lab 231 (UKI...

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In contrast to ComRes today's YouGov has a large sample 2148 (Weighted and Unweighted) Unweighted Labour lead by 1.5% Weighted Labour lead by 0.7% which disappears after likelyhood to vote is taken into account. Sample again disproportionately 60+ Labour lead substantially in every age group except ...

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From last night's ComRes poll for the Daily Mail Con 35% (+2) Lab 32% (-1) LD 9% (+1) UKIP 14% (+1) Green 4% (-3) This would be a poll Ashcroft would be proud of : Low sample size and strange distribution Weighted total 924 of which 189 (19%) didn't know or refused to answer so CON 250 Lab 231 (UKIP...

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Labour unchanged, Tories down 4, still undoubtedly a load of old twaddle. Scope for Labour to squeeze both LibDems and Greens there ;) Useful rounding. Conservatives 168 = 31.5% rounded to 32% Labour 162 = 30.4% rounded to 30% Ashcroft national polls have been consistently poor but this must be the...

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Another tied poll
Lord Ashcroft ‏@LordAshcroft 12m12 minutes ago
Populus Online Poll LAB 34% CON 34% LD EM 10% UKIP 13% GRNS 5%
Edit : Sorry for the repeat Adam but was having site problems.

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Not wanting to bore people but a couple of points about the YouGov that showed a tie CON 33% LAB 33% On unweighted data Labour 2% ahead and interestingly the principal weighting was to increase the number of (age groups)18-24 and 25-39 in the sample because they were as usual under represented. Surp...

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Last nights YouGov poll again showed a 1% CONS lead. For those interested the raw figures show this Biggish poll 1789 respondents Before Weighting CONS lead 2.3% The only anomalies I can see are, as yesterday, unweighted sample skewed to South of England (ex London) 34% of sample and 60+ 33.5% of sa...

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I note from poster (The Bishop) on UK Polling Report site that there is a new separate YouGov poll for the Sun on Sunday (no connection with Sunday Times poll) that gives Labour a 1% lead
Lab 35, Con 34, Ukip 12, LD 9, Green 5, SNP/PCy 4

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The full data for last night's YouGov poll (which gave CONS 1% lead over LAB) have now been published Biggish Data sample as always with YouGov - 1967 Things that stand out: Before weighting CON have a slightly larger lead of 1.9% but this is because from the sampling (before weighting) disproportio...

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Last poll tonight

Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB 16s17 seconds ago
YouGov S Times poll
Con 34
Lab 33
Ukip 13
LD 8
GN 5

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An interesting twist on Survation poll

Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB 2m2 minutes ago
LAB 4% ahead with Survation when sample asked to fill in replica ballot forms
CON 28
LAB 32
LD 9.6
UKIP 16.9
GN 6.4

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Even the trend is good

Dr Éoin Clarke ‏@LabourEoin now9 seconds ago
Last 7 polls - 4 have Labour leading. 1 has the Tories 1% ahead.... 2 have both parties level. Latest is Survation to give Labour 3% lead

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Good news

Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB now3 seconds ago
LAB take 3% lead with Survation for MoS

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The Opinium poll for the Observer which shows CON lead of 1% shows a Labour lead of 1.2% on the unweighted polling data both before and after elimination of don't knows.. Biggish sample size of 1956 with an adjusted size of 1569 but after weighting just 10 votes between CONS and LAB so really a dead...

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Ipsos Mori Data is now available, Smithson can't see any problems but I can. Figures based on 750 weighted definitely voting CONS 216 LAB 182 undecided 93 Breakdown Age Group 18-24 CONS lead by 2% Breakdown Regional Greater London CONS 35% LAB 26% plus the issues highlighted by Anatoly earlier , ag...

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Ipsos Mori Data is now available, Smithson can't see any problems but I can. Figures based on 750 weighted definitely voting CONS 216 LAB 182 undecided 93 Breakdown Age Group 18-24 CONS lead by 2% Breakdown Regional Greater London CONS 35% LAB 26% plus the issues highlighted by Anatoly earlier , aga...

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About that 'sensational' Ipsos Mori poll , Smithson thinking what I was Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB 4m4 minutes ago It is now 5 hours since @IpsosMORI published its sensational poll & still no sign of the dataset. From the limited information made available it looked dubious anyway what will the...

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That Conservative idea to legislate to prevent Tax increases, which I assume they thought was a real vote winner is anything but.
YouGov currently polling 45% to 30% with over 11,000 responses that it is a BAD idea.

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Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB 46s46 seconds ago ComRes/Nail Con 35% (-1) Lab 35% (+3) Lib 7% (-1) UKIP 11% (+1) Green 6% (+1) Despite the fact the poll is better than last week its still garbage Scotland LAB 33% SNP 32% (no even in my wildest dream) Total voting intention based on a weighted sample o...

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Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB 18s18 seconds ago ComRes Mail/ITV poll ENGLAND ONLY CON 36 LAB 36 LD 8 UKIP 12 GN 6 A 5.7% CON to LAB swing since GE10 Smithson puts it bluntly Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB 53s54 seconds ago In England 533 seats at GE10 CON had 11.4% lead over LAB.Tonight that is down to ...

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Just saw this (after my previous error re BMG poll probably should have kept quiet)

Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB 25m25 minutes ago
Given the debate of phone/online polls worth emphasising that ComRes most vulnerable CON marginals was by phone.

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The next poll now up

Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB 1m1 minute ago
LAB have 3% lead in CON's 50 most vulnerable seats to LAB according to ComRes/ITV poll. A 3.5% CON to LAB swing

More

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I've seen a fair few posts saying we haven't seen a politician like this for a long time. Good. It's about time - some of us have been saying he has the makings of a ( possibly great, in time) statesman. Nice to see a few more people finally catching on..... I've had that feeling about him from the...

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pk1 wrote:Sheffield Hallam:

Labour way ahead of Clegg before adjustment

Table 2
Q.2 If there was a general election tomorrow, which party would you vote for?
Base: All respondents

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May2015 Election ‏@May2015NS 10m10 minutes ago New exclusive May2015/BMG Research poll: Conservative: 35% Labour: 32% Ukip: 14% Lib Dems: 11% SNP: 4% Greens: 3% Are this lot any good? This is their first political poll & as yet, aren't members of the BPC so shouldn't be included in any 'poll of...

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May2015 Election ‏@May2015NS 10m10 minutes ago New exclusive May2015/BMG Research poll: Conservative: 35% Labour: 32% Ukip: 14% Lib Dems: 11% SNP: 4% Greens: 3% Are this lot any good? Lib Dems: 11%. No. Appears to be an outfit that uses telephone polling and telephone polls have tended to favour th...

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Labour back in the lead with YouGov

Lord Ashcroft ‏@LordAshcroft 4m4 minutes ago
YouGov/Sun poll LAB 35% CON 34% UKIP 12% LDEM 9% GRN 4%

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Its OK for some of course who seem to get away with murder and come out smelling of roses The entrepreneur Emma Harrison has made £20m from the sale of her controversial welfare-to-work business A4e. She sold the Sheffield business to Staffline Group in a deal worth £34.5m. The new owners said the A...

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New Statesman say Ed has been snapped leaving Russell Brand's flat, speculating that he may have gained Brand's support. Well I do hope Russell's dug into his well stocked wallet and given a big donation even if no public endorsement. Would a Brand endorsement be good for Labour anyway ? Might help...

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@rearofthestore Thanks for the good news. But does support of a policy translate to votes ? My husband applied for Osborne's pensioner bribe, sorry high interest bonds, yesterday as he turned 65 at the weekend. But we will not be voting Tory, much as we appreciate the 4% interest rate. Does the pol...

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Today, Our Ed is all about housing. Good. The dreaded words for all Tories and rentier classes "rent controls" have been uttered and a jolly good thing too. We are currently spending nearly £25 Billion a year on Housing Benefit and the Local Housing Allowance. Attempts by the Tories to cl...

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The YouGov poll results from last night for those who did not catch it CON edges to 1% lead in latest YouGov poll for the Sun CON 35 (+2) LAB 34 (=) LD 9 (+1) UKIP 12 (-2) GRN 5 (=) (Mike Smithson) The detailed figures are almost exactly a tie (6 votes in it) with little weighting and Labour leads i...

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Sorry Ohso. Once again I'm trailing in your wake.

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I don't use [or understand] Facebook but have just been told Diverse Cymru have issued a statement about it on there. Could someone be kind enough to cut and paste it, or provide an accessable link ? Here is the statement Diverse Cymru 20 mins · Diverse Cymru is a registered charity and would like ...

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Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB 40 secs41 seconds ago CON move to 6% lead in @LordAshcroft national poll CON 36+2 LAB 30= LD 9-1 UKIP 11-2 GN 7+3 I really should have put a tenner accumulator on my poll prediction from this morning :D So looking at it CON lead LAB age group 18-24 31% to 26% CON lead LA...

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Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB 40 secs41 seconds ago CON move to 6% lead in @LordAshcroft national poll CON 36+2 LAB 30= LD 9-1 UKIP 11-2 GN 7+3 I really should have put a tenner accumulator on my poll prediction from this morning :D So looking at it CON lead LAB age group 18-24 31% to 26% CON lead LA...

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I don't just want to disbelieve it , I really do disbelieve it especially given the marginal polling that have appeared at the same time

Lord Ashcroft ‏@LordAshcroft 47s48 seconds ago
Ashcroft National Poll, 24-26 April: CON 36%, LAB 30%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 11%, GRN 7%. Full details on @ConHome, 4pm

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Steffan John ‏@steffanjohn 14 mins14 minutes ago @MSmithsonPB Btw, the average sample size of polls since April 16th giving Lab lead is 1828. The Con lead ones is 1325. All 2000+ are Lab. That says it all really. The largest the sample size (and therefore the smaller the margin of error) the more l...

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