FlyTheNest

minch

I know everyone's feeling twitchy. TE's constant jeremiads about Jeremy don't help. I just hope he's as good at predicting lottery tickets as elections. His is also a luxurious position to be in, when there's no way of knowing what would have happened if the someone other than Corbyn had won. This ...

minch

yahyah wrote:Did they spend so much on the new Independent site they can't afford journalists to update the web pages ?

I find it only updates on Firefox if you hit ^R ^R to force a refresh.

minch

Good morning. From the BBC http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/cycling/34385718 Tour de France 2017: London turns down chance to host start Given the upfront costs and the prospect of major cuts to transport spending across the UK later this year , it is understood bosses at TfL and the Greater London Auth...

minch

I presume that as only 308 Conservative MPs voted yesterday the rest were 'paired' with Labour MPs. Can those 'paired' MPs claim that they effectively voted against?

minch

Actually, I have some sympathy with the idea that the threshold for higher rate tax is too low, it follows logically from the taboo on raising the basic rate. Raising it now though, is disgusting, like burning £50 notes in front of a homeless person. In an idle half hour once, I worked out a scheme...

minch

This is worth a read. http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn27847-greece-crisis-better-models-can-show-how-to-stabilise-eurozone.html#.VZzxKvlWIeU Doyne Farmer of the Santa Fe Institute in New Mexico and the University of Oxford says leaders and their economic advisers have no way to work out quanti...

minch

The Telepraph has the statement 'Chancellor set to cut taxes for middle class families with plans to raise the 40p tax threshold'. A quick delve around the net (please correct me if I am wrong) has the percentage of UK who are middleclass at 30% and the percentage who pay higher rate tax at just und...

minch

My only hope is that Cameron and cohorts make such an almighty mess of an event or occasion that in the tide of anger against them, with such a small majority, they'll be brought down. Fair chance that will happen tbh, especially since many Tories seem to think they won with a majority of 120 not 1...

minch

rebeccariots2 wrote:
Jim Pickard ‏@PickardJE 10m10 minutes ago
Cameron to journalists: "You were all too nice to Labour."

Worth a read https://blog.lboro.ac.uk/general-electi ... -report-4/

minch

To try to cheer people up.
Fast forward 4.5 years.
The Conservatives will be having a leadership election while preparing for an election at the same time as (hopefully) their majority in the Commons will have been eroded away.

minch

A few quick observations. 1) The vote for Labour did not collapse – it went up by 1.5% and the Conservatives vote went up by 0.5% 2) The number of votes needed per seat for Conservatives and Labour changed. Labour used to need less votes per seat and now it needs more. 3) The real game changers were...

minch

citizenJA wrote:I'd advise anyone with a polling company to pack it in & find something else to do.

Even the exit poll wasn't that good - it said 316 and it looks like 329. Quite a % error.

minch

For discussion - how many seats per party if split according to votes
Conservatives 36.8% 239
Labour 30.5% 198
UKIP 12.6% 82
LD 7.8% 51
SNP 4.8% 31
Greens 3.8% 25
Others 24

How life would have been different (but still not better)

minch

Perhaps it was DH saying he would vote for Labour that did for us.

minch

Just a thought. I think it is easy to misread things. e.g. LD go down, UKIP goes up therefore LD voters have switched. Things are probably much more complicated and voters from all parties have changed leaving a net effect. There was a little piece early on (on BBC) about (I think) YouGov polling in...

minch

I'm not sure this has been posted
http://blog.lboro.ac.uk/general-electio ... -report-2/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Interesting figures showing how 'fair' the broadcasters are.

minch

PorFavor wrote:@ minch

Project Merlin -

I'd forgotten all about that. As has everybody supposedly involved in it, I think. Bank of Big Society?

Wasn't there a green bank too?

Someone should check how all of these schemes are meeting their goals.

minch

A final thought before some system maintenance; I was notified earlier that both my firewalls were turned off and then Firefox hung, stopping me from posting. I suppose I should turn off scripts for most sites but you do need them on some, especially where you log in. I get particularly annoyed by ...

minch

I think that some of us are sometimes part of a YouGov poll. Say you read the SUN and make your vote count by a factor of 1.3 Some people here say they never get asked who they'll vote for in the election when doing Yougov online surveys, but I've actually had quite a few since Christmas. I did won...

minch

StephenDolan wrote:One of these days I'll read the YouGov polling figures and not see the scum/Star reweighted by at least 35% and the Guardian by at least - 50%.

Today is not that day.

I think that some of us are sometimes part of a YouGov poll. Say you read the SUN and make your vote count by a factor of 1.3

minch

David Cameron just said that saving £1 in £100 was no problem (general phrase used in most interviews this morning). But this is not a correct statement as a lot of each £100 is ring fenced. Or is he now saying that he could cut from anywhere? He's continually allowed to get away without such clari...

minch

David Cameron just said that saving £1 in £100 was no problem (general phrase used in most interviews this morning).
But this is not a correct statement as a lot of each £100 is ring fenced.
Or is he now saying that he could cut from anywhere?

minch

Observations. 1. Dave trotted out the same line that Sam Gyimah used on Tuesday, that they'd banned exclusive zerohours contracts. Have they? Did I blink and miss it? The best I can find is http://www.personneltoday.com/hr/zero-hours-contracts-exclusivity-clause-ban-moves-step-closer/ The last line...

minch

Observations. 1. Dave trotted out the same line that Sam Gyimah used on Tuesday, that they'd banned exclusive zerohours contracts. Have they? Did I blink and miss it? The best I can find is http://www.personneltoday.com/hr/zero-hours-contracts-exclusivity-clause-ban-moves-step-closer/ The last line...

minch

Hi there everyone. I read everyday but I am a bit shy about posting so I don't normally log in. Some thoughts on polls. Remember that if a poll has a quoted error margin of +-3% then, 19 times out of 20, the real value is within the given value +-3%. If a poll has Labour on 31% and Conservatives on ...

minch

A simple question.
If the next election is on the 7th of May and today is the 6th of Jan shouldn't the countdown at the top say 4 months and 1 day?

minch

I was alerted to this over at the Guardian - UKIP is investigating after its official website disappeared - with the UKIP.org address linking through to a domain hosting page. The problems were reported by political blogger Guido Fawkes who speculated that UKIP had "forgotten to renew the doma...

minch

OpenSeas has just posted this on AS Incredible to see the FlyTheNest brigade 'rolling on the floor laughing' at the net migration figures of +260,000 while the official Labour party is trying to tackle their vote leakage to UKIP with a series of (admittedly lip service) measures, to discourage EU mi...

minch

According to the BBC David Cameron is unwavering (or glossy and unbending, or something) in his support for Fiona Woolf. The legal representative of the survivors was interviewed and was very good. Apologies if I make more errors than usual. I've somehow reduced the font-size to microscopic and don...

minch

Does the latest YouGov have Labour ahead in the raw figures, like the last two? No - unweighted is 483 to 459 out of a sample of 1739, which goes to weighted numbers of 479 to 456. I think one of the problems is that too much attention is made to the headline figure. What the polls are actually say...

minch

Gawd, if only that were a national poll! Although I can't see how the figures balance - am I missing something? They add up to 100% (strange) Also sadly we missed the national one http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2014/10/ashcroft-national-poll-con-32-lab-30-lib-dem-7-ukip-17-green-7/" onclick=&quo...

minch

Is Ashcroft publishing a national poll today, or just a Heywood & Middleton one? http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2014/10/labour-set-clear-win-heywood-middleton/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=labour-set-clear-win-heywood-middleton&utm_source=Lord+Ashcroft+Polls&utm_camp...

minch

Ignoring the rights or wrongs of English votes for English 'things' can anyone think of a single case where not allowing Scotish MPs to vote would have made any difference? You would probably have to go back to the seventies. I think Blair/Brown always had enough MPs without their Scottish MPs. Unl...

minch

Ignoring the rights or wrongs of English votes for English 'things' can anyone think of a single case where not allowing Scotish MPs to vote would have made any difference?

minch

I woke up expecting delayed counts and its all over! So after all the worries the polls were about right. I notice that suddenly the talk is all about reducing the voice of Scottish MPs in Westminster (I'm not commenting on whether this is right or wrong) rather than all the other pledges. The best ...

minch

Perhaps someone has mentioned this before but is Clegg OK to sign a pledge for a policy which hasn't been voted for in their conference? Well, he usually ignores the results of the votes at Conference anyway (they've been voting against Bedroom Tax for a couple of years now) so it would be in keepi...

minch

Perhaps someone has mentioned this before but is Clegg OK to sign a pledge for a policy which hasn't been voted for in their conference?

minch

Ed Miliband's speech in Scotland is apparently being broadcast on BBC News24 at 2pm today. Whether it will be covered in full, though, I know not. They'll probably cut away and put on a week old edition of ''Click'' or something, Brown's speech Monday night wasn't covered in full, pathetic. Cant fi...

minch

Is it me or is this, from Clegg, just silly. Q: Why is there not a Commons statement on the agreement offering Scotland more devolution? Because that’s an agreement between three parties, he says. It is not a government announcement. That’s because the election purdah rules apply. Q: So why didn’t ...

minch

Is it me or is this, from Clegg, just silly. Q: Why is there not a Commons statement on the agreement offering Scotland more devolution? Because that’s an agreement between three parties, he says. It is not a government announcement. That’s because the election purdah rules apply. Q: So why didn’t y...

minch

In the beginning there was a suggestion of a 3 way vote (with Devomax). This was rejected in favour of just a yes and no (with the implication that a no vote was to continue as now). Now that the no camp are saying that a no vote devolves more powers how do you vote if you want things to stay the s...

minch

In the beginning there was a suggestion of a 3 way vote (with Devomax). This was rejected in favour of just a yes and no (with the implication that a no vote was to continue as now). Now that the no camp are saying that a no vote devolves more powers how do you vote if you want things to stay the sa...

minch

I notice that with the new car tax changes you cannot transfer the tax disc to the new owner (the new owner has to pay for their own). You can claim back whole months of tax but this (on average) will raise 2 weeks of extra car tax every time a car is sold compared to the current system? I wonder if...

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