FlyTheNest

howsillyofme1

Well tbf one argument in favour of masks is that their widespread use might make some concerned people more willing to go out of their homes. what if it also increases symptomatic people to leave their houses because it is safe to do so if you are wearing a mask? it's not safe I know that, you know...

howsillyofme1

I am not making that argument but the data on asymptomatic people is even weaker than those for symptomatic i a playing devil's advocate here just to be clear and I have no problems wearing a mask but I think we need to be also very open with the fact that the 'science' is not at all conclusive, tha...

howsillyofme1

Well yes, I have said before their main drawback is that they might draw some into a false sense of security. But the from other countries is that they can have a net positive effect. Not a panacea, though. and nobody should imagine otherwise. No real problem with this sentiment but the comments of...

howsillyofme1

AnatolyKasparov wrote:Well tbf one argument in favour of masks is that their widespread use might make some concerned people more willing to go out of their homes.

what if it also increases symptomatic people to leave their houses because it is safe to do so if you are wearing a mask?

howsillyofme1

@ howsillyofme1 But is there a downside or any risk attached to wearing a face-covering? If they do not work well then they could well stop people social distancing. Gives a false sense of security. Also, the potential for contamination Most of the downsides are behavioural rather than scientific b...

howsillyofme1

twat https://twitter.com/mrjamesob/status/1282939106293620737" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; this is what I am talking about! Of course that is a silly sweeping generalisation, and yet......I too have noticed a bit of overlap with anti-vaxxers in particular. The health ben...

howsillyofme1

twat

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this is what I am talking about!

howsillyofme1

Hi all Finding the discourse between maskers and anti-maskers profoundly depressing on social media today The excuses for not wearing one are pretty lame but the invective and ridiculous comments from the other side don't help things with their sense of superiority - especially from people who have ...

howsillyofme1

Good morning all I have attached a link to the report that is getting mentioned in the news today on potential risk in the winter season https://acmedsci.ac.uk/file-download/51353957" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; As with much of this subject the reporting is sensationalist...

howsillyofme1

AnatolyKasparov wrote:I always like reading howsilly's contributions here even if I do not always agree.

That's all

likewise...and I don't always agree with myself....so much conflicting info!

howsillyofme1

Great post Willow - can't disagree with any of it! We over here are similar to Germany and to be honest wearing masks here is not causing too many issues (although it only applies to two Cantons for shops so we have a big experiment going on!). The Government here is seen as performing pretty well -...

howsillyofme1

I don't think I'd find a sincere apology after a drunken rant to be offensive, but there you go ! This is interesting, and begs more questions on the detail ? A “Covid party” is a gathering held by somebody diagnosed with coronavirus to see if the virus is real and to see if anyone gets infected, s...

howsillyofme1

A pretty good summary of where science is at the moment - this one being an argument about masks and their efficacy.....! https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/06/controversy-covid-19-mask-study-spotlights-messiness-science-during" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; A...

howsillyofme1

Good morning I would like to respond that rather offensive post about me last night, which I think sums up the problems we have There seems to be almost an accepted truth to everything that any attempt to nuance or bring another view on is not accepted. In this some people who like to see themselves...

howsillyofme1

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jul/12/immunity-to-covid-19-could-be-lost-in-months-uk-study-suggests Immunity to Covid-19 could be lost in months, UK study suggests there seems to be a bit of a battle going on between virologists and immunologists at the moment - the immunologists are takin...

howsillyofme1

How many deaths will be saved by face coverings though? We have had lockdown off since 11 May here, including schools, nightclubs, bars and restaurants. Deaths since then have been <20 and none in the last 7 days Facemasks were made compulsory last week because uptake had been low despite advice fro...

howsillyofme1

Exhorting people to wear face coverings is pretty pointless though, most people should know by now that wearing one yourself isn't useful unless, say, 90% of other people are wearing them. You're never going to get anywhere near that level without making it compulsory. Not for the first time, I'm n...

howsillyofme1

specifically on facemasks

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howsillyofme1

Good morning/afternoon On masks I have some concerns. The WHO website itself has tucked away a report highlighting the lack of evidence as to their efficacy to prevent airborne diseases (in this case the flu) https://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/handle/10665/329439/WHO-WHE-IHM-GIP-2019.1-eng.pdf?ua=1...

howsillyofme1

Good morning In reply to Gilsey from last night is no, I have never been to NZ and dioubt I ever will now. I am not sure what the reklevance is though as I am justpointing out that there are risks to their approach and we shoulod not just jump to praise them as CV-19 is not the only risk that countr...

howsillyofme1

Afternoon all I am probably going to make myself unpopular but I am reticent to join in the Ardern love-in as I am concerned she is putting herself in a position that it may be difficult to get out of She is in essence saying complete and utter elimination of CV-19 in NZ and no tolerance of any chan...

howsillyofme1

AK Yes other countries have suppressed it more quickly and that makes a big difference - the risk of rapid suppression is the prevalence of the 'S' in the SEIR model if it does hit again but, as you say, that has thankfully not come to fruition. The Swedes are a big loser from that as well because t...

howsillyofme1

Evening all Looking at the dat it is reasonable to be at Lvl 3 in the UK - cases are still dropping albeit very slowly. Please also don't get overly focused on track and trace - we don't have it here either to be honest. Still pretty weak and app not yet released here either and indications that it ...

howsillyofme1

Hi all Hope all are well and don't mind me popping by I have the fortune to live in a country that is starting to normalise. Daily cases are stabilising around 10-20 and deaths at around 5ish a week and have been pretty much since the end of April Schools are open as are hairdressers, shops, restaur...

howsillyofme1

Evening all I have shared this before but will do so again as it is very useful as a data source https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; This gives an idea of the excess death rates across a number of European countries and the comparison wit...

howsillyofme1

It will have taken a long time because difficult and politically sensitive. The implication you have made that it has been deliberately held back by dark forces because insufficiently critical of Labour, is precisely the kind of conspiratorial nonsense that has bedevilled Labour from the start of t...

howsillyofme1

@ Howsillyofme and @ Frog222 Thanks for the info about what's happening elsewhere, I know the info is out there, but it's nice to hear first hand experiences. It confirms my impression that schools are being re-opened alongside other easing, not ahead of everyone else. The main issue, of course, is...

howsillyofme1

adam wrote:She was one of ours.

I went to the school down the road with the maroon uniform! Used to stand out like a sore thumb!

howsillyofme1

To be honest it makes no sense to rush back to school but the whole attitude of UKG makes no sense. I would have thought that instead of loosening shutdown they should have gone harder for next few weeks and drive down the numbers of cases to as low as possible whilst setting up the infrastructure t...

howsillyofme1

And as I have said before, the "elephant in the room" here is that the government can insist schools "officially" reopen on a set date - but as long as a significant number of parents don't believe they are actually safe, a lot of kids still won't be going there...... One of my ...

howsillyofme1

Dowden says for majority of people 'staying alert' means staying at home (Politics Live, Guardian) Whilst returning to the workplace and school? Does anyone know if many countries lifting lockdown started with schools? The few I've seen details for seem to have allowed non-essential shops to open b...

howsillyofme1

Being unemployed here is considered to be a 'job' - have to ask for holidays and permission just like from employer. The main focus is getting you back into work asap so have to show willing and also they send you on loads of courses to help improve skills. If you still unemployed after 2 years then...

howsillyofme1

Let us not allow despair at the Gment prevent us from putting up some proposals looking at other countries as a guide There is a risk in the summer that the UK is still pissing about with semi-lockdown and more polarised and non-productive rhetoric whilst the continent is moving to the new normal a...

howsillyofme1

'Furloughing' is well known here (and in France/Germany too). It is called 'chômage technique' here There are two main reasons; firstly, it keeps employees linked to employer during temporary downturns and allows the rapid retooling afterwards. On my site a couple of companies have used it to tide o...

howsillyofme1

Wren-Lewis does a good job there - what we need to try and does what has been the focus on the continent which is to get the cases down to a low enough level so a track, trace and isolate protocol can be used to maintain a control at an acceptable level. The track and trace bit is already a well-kno...

howsillyofme1

Always good to see howsilly's contributions here. Thankyou AK I know I am a bit non-regular and sometimes go on a bit of a rant but I hope that it sparks some debate Still missing Mr H as well....used to come just to read his musings....I am sure he would have provided some unique insight into this

howsillyofme1

I would much rather see resources being spent on data gathering, rapid local responses and a true community response to this including the protection of vulnerable people and PPE rather than harsh lockdown conditions that seem to be creating a lot of hidden damage to our wellbeing and may actually ...

howsillyofme1

Rory Kinnear. My sister died of coronavirus. She needed care, but her life was not disposable Maybe we might transfer our common sense of purpose, our shared determination to “defeat” an “enemy” that “preys” on the needy, once “the fight against coronavirus” has been “won”, to invest – financially ...

howsillyofme1

I am not sure if this has been shared here yet but this is an interesting link to the EUROMOMO site which looks at death rates (morbid I know) and how they compare to the norm As we can see there is a massive spike due to CV that has now moved down so shows that in these circumstances the lockdown i...

howsillyofme1

Also when Prof Stephen Powis was asked by someone from LBC why the model that predicted the lockdown could keep deaths down to 7-20000 had been so wrong his answer was utterly misleading. He did a Boris Johnson and said half a million deaths were originaly predicted. But that of course was a predic...

howsillyofme1

Also, I am continually intrigued at this selling of the 2nd wave as 'deadly' - why will it be more deadly than the first? It's because they're afraid it will happen in Winter on top of flu and all the other seasonal maladies which stretch the NHS at that time of year. Radio 5 had an epidemiologist ...

howsillyofme1

I think I may have been unfair to Germany in that last post as they have a target I think 50 cases per 100000 people over a week would lead to a response (can argue if too low or two high). The have this as their lag measure and their lead measure seems to be a measure of R but this is a tricky one ...

howsillyofme1

Let's get at least one thing clear right away - Sweden is not just doing nothing and letting "herd immunity" take its natural course. Hi all Absolutely agree - the Swedish approach is based on a different assumption and one that is proposed by a very distinguished epidemiologist. The idea...

howsillyofme1

Good morning everyone Just to remind people to go back and look at Sky's contribution last night - hope you are keeping well Sky as this has clearly been a difficult few days but there are some lovely anecdotes about Adrian which are comforting to read. I know it cannot be easy to write about him bu...

howsillyofme1

Good morning all Although, it is clearly not as good a morning as I would wish as I have just heard the sad news about Mr Hindle. A true gent and stalwart of this forum - quirky and charming in his own inimitable way My sympathies with his family and friends and I will raise a glass to his memory - ...

howsillyofme1

Just one last point on this report We know there was a legal impediment to release to the EHRe - I accept that there may have been some GDPR sensitivities but am sure that would have been able to be worked out via redactions etc although I assume referencing them would have been acceptable as long a...

howsillyofme1

Hi how silly I’m not sure that Starmer is right to be cautious. It was just a general observation on caution! Hi Paul okay, sorry - I am not averse to caution.....just both Corbyn and Miliband were in their own way. Much better than reckless but I think the word is 'overly' and that is a judgement ...

howsillyofme1

Caution can be good if one has a clear end point in mind. We shall see. In general terms and all things being equal I would agree but they are not in this day and age - I really want to like Starmer as I have extreme respect for him but i am fearful that his lack of ability to take risk will be a c...

howsillyofme1

It might be worth remembering that the EHRC report was originally meant to appear back in January. I can't definitively say why there has been this apparent delay, but can certainly speculate...... As for the initially cautious Starmer/Labour response to this leak, it has been speculated this may a...

howsillyofme1

just as a follow up to that last post I haver read that report and I am sorry that it has leaked with people's details in it. That is not acceptable and shows a real breakdown in data security, although we do not know the full circumstances as to why it was released. If there is any evidence that th...

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