FlyTheNest

I know it's not relevant to the outcome as such but what's the score with Alaska? It's got a population the size of Leeds but in 500 days (or however many it's been since the vote) it has has only counted half of its votes. Perhaps Sarah Palin's doing the counting and has run out of fingers and toe...

I know it's not relevant to the outcome as such but what's the score with Alaska? It's got a population the size of Leeds but in 500 days (or however many it's been since the vote) it has has only counted half of its votes. It's too cold for finngerless gloves so it's much more awkward to count the...

Elsewhere, another great quote of the day comes from Cardinal Nichols,head of the Catholic church in the UK, who tells us that a ban on church services is not supported by the science. The Catholic Church are very worried about you all reading The Da Vinci Code. And in fact, in January last year, th...

Or even

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"Well, someone has to tell him" "OK, you do it" "Me? No way!" etc etd Alex Andreou @sturdyAlex This may be the funniest and most terrifying thing, I ever heard reported: White House aides are "scoping possible conduits" in Trump's family/inner circle, effecti...

When Reagan was first elected 40 years ago, Biden had already served 8 years in the Senate.

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If Trump takes Alaska and NC and Biden the rest then the electoral college count - 306/232 - will have flipped from Rep to Dem exactly since last time.

Trump's latest wheeze is to talk about 'suppression polls'- opinion polling making it look bad for him and making his supporters think he was a lost cause so not bothering to vote.

Another nice geeky election fact - from the states last time Clinton won 232 college votes but officially 'scored' 227 because five of her electors in the college chose to vote for somebody else. If Biden ends up on 270, expect to hear more from the Republicans about the opportunities for faithless ...

Am still worried though - Arizona looking scary? Quite right to be worried until it's a done deal but worth saying that the outcome still appears to be Biden. Of course we've been here before when everything needed to go right for Trump to win and then it did, but this time everything needs to go r...

Just to add that some of the same people sneered at Labour supporters for how they reacted to the 2017 GE result...... I look forward to the Republican announcement that despite losing seats and vote share, with a majority in the Senate they have a mandate to govern and Biden had better fall in lin...

Of course if we could give Trump what he wants and stop counting now, then Biden wins Arizona, Nevada, Michigan and Wisconsin, reaches 270 college votes and wins the election. Trump can have the rest and reach 268 and lose.

To be fair, Obama had the white house, the house and a super majority in the Senate in his first two years and there's a lot he didn't get done. Biden is likely to be stumped for doing anything about the Court for the time being. The republicans run the risk of being seen as nay-saying disrupters in...

Nobody's mentioned Minnesota since I posted, so maybe I was hallucinating. It was called last night :) It's is the state that has stayed Democrat for the longest in Presidential elections - last lost in 1972. It's the only state Reagan didn't win in 1984 (by 3000 votes) It was Mondale's home state....

Arizona - 365 (nate silver - ABC) are saying that they think Arizona shouldn't have been called as early as it was BUT that they remain confident Biden is going to win it. In fact from what's left they say... Wisconsin - projected for Biden Michigan - projected for Biden Nevada- not yet projected, b...

There's some chatter on 538 that Arizona might have been called early and might still get tighter although I can't see that coming from anywhere other than the Trump campaign - they need to come up with a route to win and without Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada or Arizona they're screwed. But one to be ...

Wisconsin - Fewer than a thousand votes left to count and Biden has a c20,000 vote lead - so it looks absolutely fine. Michigan appears to be fine, from what I can read about it. Nevada probably but not as clear (which really does mean 'probably' but not prepared to be confident about anything that ...

Wisconsin and Michigan appear to be falling into place - Nevada close but uncounted postal ballots expected to make it safe for Biden - and those three would be 270.

Last post from yesterday Despite Trump's current leads Wisconsin and Michigan are still being talked about at 538 as moving to Biden. With them and Arizona and Nebraska District 2,and with Trump winning Maine District 2,then Biden will reach 270 without Pennsylvania (or NC or Georgia for that matter...

Despite Trump's current leads Wisconsin and Michigan are still being talked about at 538 as moving to Biden. With them and Arizona and Nebraska District 2,and with Trump winning Maine District 2,the Biden will reach 270 without Pennsylvania (or NC or Georgia for that matter).

Fair enough. The positive point being made about Ohio is that it was a comfortable Trump win last time but looks like going to the wire this time,which should be good news for the other midwest states - the three crucial ones - where Trump won by less than 1%point last time. But not taking anything...

Fair enough. The positive point being made about Ohio is that it was a comfortable Trump win last time but looks like going to the wire this time,which should be good news for the other midwest states - the three crucial ones - where Trump won by less than 1%point last time. But not taking anything ...

hmmm. it still at the moment looks like it could come down to wisconsin, michigan and pennsylvania. Ohio still looks very close and arizona hasn't started counting yet. North Carolina also still very close with what 538 say are bellwether counties still counting.

Right, plan ... read/doze for an hour or so and then see where we are.

Nate Silver says the first interesting county they've seen actual votes for in Florida looks good for Biden. (Edit - actually he says 'promising' - Trump won last time by about a point - flipping that - yes, yes, just in one county - would be close to the proportionate margin for the state last time...

Homeowner Arlene Hopkins, 66, a retired pharmaceutical saleswoman, praised Trump for his handling of the economy. Hopkins is however fundamentally a single-issue voter: “The main reason I would never vote for Joe Biden is because I am a practicing Catholic and abortion is considered intrinsically e...

This is interesting from 538- a video going through the 'what if' of polling being as wrong as last time. Short answer - Biden still wins. Tweak it a point fiurther wrong than last time - Biden still wins, by a whisker.

Biden's 'Kinnock Plagiariasm' Controversy - 1988 I started thinking as I was coming over here, why is it that Joe Biden is the first in his family ever to go to a university? [Pointing to his wife in the audience:] Why is it that my wife who is sitting out there in the audience is the first in her ...

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But last time.

The polling is generally good and overwhelmingly more than good enough, and generally moving Biden's way, but last time.

The court rulings have generally been in Biden's favour, but last time.

This is fun in a much more trivial but still, y'know, shocked etc... fashion One third of Tory MPs in ‘blue collar conservatives’ group went to private school A group of Tory MPs claiming to be “blue collar” workers is in fact packed with politicians who went to private school, it has emerged. Aroun...

Somebody btl on the guardian linked to this the other day, it's very good... A room, a bar and a classroom: how the coronavirus is spread through the air The risk of contagion is highest in indoor spaces but can be reduced by applying all available measures to combat infection via aerosols. Here is ...

It would appear that someone didn't look at the rugby scheduling... 4pm > 5pm > 6:30pm! If they'd said this morning something like 'as is clear, we need to announce new measures because of deteriorating situation but we need to get all of the detail right so the announcement will be at....' then th...

adam wrote:I think that Starmer will bow to every demand made about this, regardless of where it's coming from, and then they'll move on to attacking him again.

RogerOThornhill wrote:Gove being Gove has decided that Starmer has "questions to answer".

I thank you.

I like fivethirtyeight's winding path to victory. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/?cid=rrpromo" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; I've been continuing to play the simulation on 270 to win. On my 'every state I've ever seen turn blue' map the only th...

Not sure how they can make this stick - even if they apply it only to staff working on news & politics. Benjamin Butterworth @benjaminbutter Exclusive: BBC staff have been banned from attending LGBT pride events and told they could be suspended if they breach the new rules. David Jordan, the he...

For those looking for other distractions - I wouldn't dream of making predictions about next Tuesday but it's possible to think about what's necessary. If Biden holds what Clinton won (and I wouldn't predict even that but there's nothing in polling to seriously suggest otherwise) then he needs to wi...

The whole thing is too depressing for words. The G trots out the old story about Berger needing police protection at conference, which I thought had been comprehensively debunked at the time. BBC talking to Hodge and Smeeth. Leaders office interfering in the process! shock! horror!, no mention that...

Sky'sGoneOut wrote:How times have changed.

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Thanks to the work of Mr Feargal Sharkey in legitimisting YouTube streams by feeding money from them back to music labels.

The Undertones once told me to stop sharing one of their songs in a blog post. Oh do tell. That's basically it, to be honest. I wrote a music blog, I did a post called 'three minute heroes' with about half a dozen songs that were exactly 3 minutes long, one of which was 'Chain of Love' by The Under...

Sky'sGoneOut wrote:
Has anyone here ever been told off for committing acts of internet thievery?

The Undertones once told me to stop sharing one of their songs in a blog post.

Should probably have this one too

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Quick change of pace

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[youtube]LAhkeJz1ZhY[/youtube]

(A friend who is a huge huge REM fan says this is the definitive version of this song)

[youtube]31epnYBOMWA[/youtube]

I think I've had one message, once, related to the contact tracing app because something popped up on my phone saying 'NHS Test and Trace Good News You Have Not' and when I touched it it dissappeared. There is no notifications or messages section within the app and the message didn't go anywhere el...

When the Conservatives won a landslide majority in December last year, Justina Smyth, 35, was “more than happy”. Standing in the drizzle outside the Polish shop Baltic on Heywood high street in Greater Manchester on Friday, she recalled how she “had been surprised what help they seemed to be offeri...

I think I've had one message, once, related to the contact tracing app because something popped up on my phone saying 'NHS Test and Trace Good News You Have Not' and when I touched it it dissappeared. There is no notifications or messages section within the app and the message didn't go anywhere els...

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