Saturday 23rd & Sunday 24th April 2016

[ohsocynical]

Veteran BBC journalist slams broadcaster’s bias on doctors’ strike, and much more

http://www.thecanary.co/2016/02/18/vete ... rike-much/

[ephemerid]

I've put a thing on Welfare and Benefits about the leaked document on in-work conditionality.

[ohsocynical]

While Michael Crick of Channel 4 News has been focusing on the RoadTrip 2015 aspects of the Tories’ last General Election campaign, and the possibility that spending limits had been breached, in and around London, the party’s use of University students as evening canvassers may have been in contravention of the Representation of the People Act 1983, which specifically outlaws payment or inducement for canvassing.

http://zelo-street.blogspot.co.uk/2016/ ... grows.html

[ephemerid]

New post on Zelo Street on the Tories breaking electoral regulations.....which state that canvassers should not be paid or offered inducements.

This time, it's about students helping with canvassing in many different places. The ads put out to get them to join in offered free food, drinks, and after-canvassing get-togethers in pubs where the bar bill "will be paid by the party".

In contrast, Tim provides the guidance for Labour canvassers. Organisers are told to be careful not to break the rules, and only occasionally offer a coffee or whatever making it clear that it's given in appreciation of support only.

The Tories may well argue that if they're bussing people around to canvass for them, the least they can do is make sure they're fed - but advertising aimed at students for the Roadtrip, offering a free bar, smacks of inducement to me.
On top of all the other allegations regarding the Roadtrip, plus the 20 seats (allegedly) where the Tories spent well over what they were allowed, it's beginning too smell a lot like corruption. I don't know many students who wouldn't take a free bar if offered.

The Tories have a 12-seat majority. Most if not all of the over-budget spending, and a lot of the Roadtrip activity, was in marginals. The West Country in particular lost seats to the Tories; in many places the voting was very close.
Bearing in mind that the polls and the betting favoured a Labour win, even allowing for the SNP success in Scotland, it's beginning to look to me as though Cameron bought his second term.

This should be thoroughly investigated, IMHO.

[ephemerid]

Snap, OhSo!

[mbc1955]

1. La Mensch and her obsession with anti-Semitism......and Lo! it came to pass (again). See today's Zelo Street.....there could be ructions!
She is beginning to sound unhinged. Generally, not just in relation to this issue.

Beginning?

Mensch is heading at high speed, and I suspect quite deliberately, for full-on Ann Coulter or Pamela Geller status. There's a nice and (not so) little earner to be made in the States if you're a vocal, photogenic woman with barking mad knee-jerk right wing tendencies.

Tim (Zelo Street) Fenton suggests that La Mensch may have overstepped the mark in a dangerous manner, by tweeting clearly libellous (and lying) material about a billionaire with ample means to wipe her out via a defamation suit.

Whilst I wouldn't normally applaud the vindictive use of libel actions to silence an individual's voice, I'd be more than happy to applaud this one. I'd even chip in with an extra tenner, if the guy's running a bit short...

[RogerOThornhill]

Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB 2h2 hours ago

William Hill say there's been seen a surge of bets for a IN bets following Obama’s comments. Price slashed from 4/9 to 2/7

Oh?

Toby Young Retweeted
UK News ‏@UK__News 9h9 hours ago
Obama's intervention has made it 'just that little bit more likely' that we will vote to leave, says @toadmeister.



Consistently wrong about everything.

[ephemerid]

This is excellent -

tomlondon.blogspot.co.uk/2016/04/if-you-really-want-to-get-tories-out.html

[mbc1955]

This is excellent -

tomlondon.blogspot.co.uk/2016/04/if-you-really-want-to-get-tories-out.html

Can you check the link, please? If I paste it in, I get nothing.

[ohsocynical]

Off topic but this sort of thing fascinates me. I'd have gone into archaeology if we'd had the money.

Romsey Abbey: The mystery of the hair in the coffin

http://zelo-street.blogspot.co.uk/2016/ ... grows.html

[Willow904]

This is excellent -

tomlondon.blogspot.co.uk/2016/04/if-you-really-want-to-get-tories-out.html

Can you check the link, please? If I paste it in, I get nothing.

http://tomdlondon.blogspot.co.uk/2016/0 ... s-out.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[ohsocynical]

If you really want to get the Tories out, don't undermine Jeremy Corbyn
I support Jeremy Corbyn. I am not “hard left”.


http://tomdlondon.blogspot.co.uk/2016/0 ... l?spref=tw

[ohsocynical]

If you really want to get the Tories out, don't undermine Jeremy Corbyn
I support Jeremy Corbyn. I am not “hard left”.


http://tomdlondon.blogspot.co.uk/2016/0 ... l?spref=tw

Snap. But worth reading a second time

[ohsocynical]

There has been an overwhelming response after This Writer offered to launch a petition calling for last year’s general election to be declared void.

http://voxpoliticalonline.com/2016/04/2 ... overnment/

[RogerOThornhill]

George Eaton ‏@georgeeaton 9h9 hours ago
Farage just distanced himself from Boris on Sky News - not a great place to be.

Whoops.

I'd say that Boris' chances of becoming PM are vanishing rapidly...GO must be smiling quietly in the background and keeping well out of the way right now.

[HindleA]

Not buying the "he bought the election" line,I don't have such a low opinion of others to be so easilly persuaded and it is a secret ballot,so who would know,in any case.As much as it may bring comfort that it was thickos not voting the way you wanted.For the first time in my memory there was a massive Tory billboard in my village,funny enough I didn't instantly vote for them,nor indeed did many others it probably had the reverse effect.

[mbc1955]

This is excellent -

tomlondon.blogspot.co.uk/2016/04/if-you-really-want-to-get-tories-out.html

Can you check the link, please? If I paste it in, I get nothing.

http://tomdlondon.blogspot.co.uk/2016/0 ... s-out.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Thank you. Both excellent and entirely reasonable. Should be used as a litmus test for Labour MPs: any who disagree should be expelled.

[PaulfromYorkshire]

Not buying the "he bought the election" line,I don't have such a low opinion of others to be so easilly persuaded and it is a secret ballot,so who would know,in any case.As much as it may bring comfort that it was thickos not voting the way you wanted.For the first time in my memory there was a massive Tory billboard in my village,funny enough I didn't instantly vote for them,nor indeed did many others it probably had the reverse effect.

I do see what you mean A, but the rationale when I've been campaigning is not that you change peoples' minds, rather you firm up their decision and make them more likely to vote.

In your scenario, the billboard might just remind a flakey Tory voter that it's a marginal seat where every vote counts and persuade them to the polling station.

[ohsocynical]

EXCLUSIVE:
Labour MP accuses Cameron of ‘showing his true colours’ over Trump 'U-turn'

http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/ ... lip-Siddiq

[ohsocynical]

How 1MDB's Stolen Money Funded Top UK Private Schools

Documents acquired by Sarawak Report reveal that the two men are the secret funders behind the self proclaimed entrepreneur, Marwan Naja, who acts as Chairman of Bellevue Education, a fast growing business, which has acquired 12 lucrative schools since 2010.

http://www.sarawakreport.org/2016/04/ho ... e-schools/

[RogerOThornhill]

How 1MDB's Stolen Money Funded Top UK Private Schools

Documents acquired by Sarawak Report reveal that the two men are the secret funders behind the self proclaimed entrepreneur, Marwan Naja, who acts as Chairman of Bellevue Education, a fast growing business, which has acquired 12 lucrative schools since 2010.

http://www.sarawakreport.org/2016/04/ho ... e-schools/

Not only private schools - this was in SW only this week.

http://schoolsweek.co.uk/bellevue-place ... -are-they/

Bellevue Place Education Trust (BPET) is the third largest free school owner, with seven primary schools in and around London, writes John Dickens.

But it has operated until recently out of the spotlight shared by some of the other major players such as Ark and Harris.

The trust featured in a Sunday Times article this month, which reported Saudi Arabian oil tycoon Tarek Obaid was a key investor in the private education firm that helped to set up the trust. The connection came to light after the Panama Papers data release.

He is the largest shareholder, via a British Virgin Islands company, of Bellevue Education – a private education firm that runs 13 independent schools in the UK and Switzerland.

[ohsocynical]

TV presenter Terry Nutkins, famous for appearances on BBC nature programmes like Animal Magic and The Really Wild Show, has died at the age of 66.

[RogerOThornhill]

Story in The Times tomorrow that Nicky Morgan is preparing to do a u-turn on forced academisation.

Brilliant if true...if it is then Wednesday's select committee might be interesting. Shame it's in the afternoon...normally go swimming when I;m at home!

[refitman]

TV presenter Terry Nutkins, famous for appearances on BBC nature programmes like Animal Magic and The Really Wild Show, has died at the age of 66.

He died in 2012. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-19520824" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[Hobiejoe]

TV presenter Terry Nutkins, famous for appearances on BBC nature programmes like Animal Magic and The Really Wild Show, has died at the age of 66.

He died in 2012. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-19520824" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

I rather suspect that the infamous Facebook algorithm is going to need yet more tweaking, given the number of random celeb death reports it throws up on peoples timelines/feeds/whatever they're called after you comment, share &tc. on a deceacelebrity.

[tinybgoat]

Found this from last year:

https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg ... -election/

The 2012 US presidential election, which Barack Obama won in part due to the Democrats’ ability to target certain voters, showed the power of having a solid data team as part of the campaign.
“There is a lot of opportunity to be increasingly clever,” says Andrew Whitehurst of Wess, a London-based firm that runs digital campaigns for all three major UK parties. His colleague watched both sides in the last US presidential campaign drumming up support on the same street. “The Romney camp knocked on every single door, and the Obama camp knocked on about seven.”

Replicating this in the UK is harder, as campaign spending restrictions and data protection laws limit what parties can do. What’s more, the multiparty nature of UK politics makes such modelling a headache.

Having already got around spending restrictions, maybe conservatives would somehow also be able to target voters more accurately?
All seats had a large increase in unregistered voters, and there was a drive to increase registration before the election.
I think the figure quoted for marginals was a drop of up to 11000 voters, probably with more being lost proprtionally by Labour.
Would it have then have been possible for conservatives to identify & target newly registered voters to canvass?
Thereby having a reasonably reliable way of swinging the vote in marginals.