Friday 10th.June 2016
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Welcome to FTN. New posters are welcome to join the conversation. You can follow us on Twitter @FlythenestHaven You are responsible for the content you post. This is a public forum. Treat it as if you are speaking in a crowded room. Site admin and Moderators are volunteers who will respond as quickly as they are able to when made aware of any complaints. Please do not post copyrighted material without the original authors permission.
Friday 10th.June 2016
Good morning, everyone.
Toby - good to see you back. Even if only in parts like the curates' egg.
Seeingclearly - ditto. I've been a bit concerned. Hope you're on the mend.
I hereby announce that gallstones are the absolute pits. Owcher!
Reading the posts from yesterday.....Cameron will be going, if not straight after the referendum (whatever happens there), and possibly not when he promised (and we all know what his promises mean, don't we, children?). I do not think any of the obvious contenders right now will lead the Tories after he's gone.
Boris is good for a laugh at times; but he is as inconsistent as he is incoherent. The public aren't daft, and I doubt they really take him seriously. Osborn is too unpopular, and is looking more and more like the useless git many of us have known him to be for ages. Gove is just too weird. Weirdy Mc.Weirdface.
May is being very quiet and I think the Tory high command will see her as a safe pair of hands. I've thought for a very long time that Mr.Burns (a.k.a. Philip Hammond) is one to watch. He's clever, he's done some big jobs, and he's positioning himself nicely. He's my bet; I can't take anyone other than him and May seriously.
I'm still voting Remain. I cannot see a viable way of leaving the EU without serious damage to this country - especially when you consider that the Tories will still be in charge for another four years after the vote, unless something rally dramatic happens......
.....like, for example, some serious election fraud allegations becoming charges with all the shenanigans they'd imply.
Toby - good to see you back. Even if only in parts like the curates' egg.
Seeingclearly - ditto. I've been a bit concerned. Hope you're on the mend.
I hereby announce that gallstones are the absolute pits. Owcher!
Reading the posts from yesterday.....Cameron will be going, if not straight after the referendum (whatever happens there), and possibly not when he promised (and we all know what his promises mean, don't we, children?). I do not think any of the obvious contenders right now will lead the Tories after he's gone.
Boris is good for a laugh at times; but he is as inconsistent as he is incoherent. The public aren't daft, and I doubt they really take him seriously. Osborn is too unpopular, and is looking more and more like the useless git many of us have known him to be for ages. Gove is just too weird. Weirdy Mc.Weirdface.
May is being very quiet and I think the Tory high command will see her as a safe pair of hands. I've thought for a very long time that Mr.Burns (a.k.a. Philip Hammond) is one to watch. He's clever, he's done some big jobs, and he's positioning himself nicely. He's my bet; I can't take anyone other than him and May seriously.
I'm still voting Remain. I cannot see a viable way of leaving the EU without serious damage to this country - especially when you consider that the Tories will still be in charge for another four years after the vote, unless something rally dramatic happens......
.....like, for example, some serious election fraud allegations becoming charges with all the shenanigans they'd imply.
"Poverty is the worst form of violence" - Mahatma Gandhi
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Re: Friday 10th.June 2016
Morning.
Good to see you back Ephie, I was thinking of you yesterday. Sorry to hear the gallstones are causing so much pain and discomfort.
Also relieved to hear from seeingclearly.
We only watched about 15 minutes of the debate last night.
But have to admit, despite all the flak Amber Rudd often deserves she was very good last night.
Eagle, Rudd & Sturgeon made a good team. In what we saw Sturgeon didn't dominate/outshine her team either. They seemed to have the momentum when we had to stop watching when the hard disc recorder switched to record two series we are following.
What did make me feel depressed was the Leave political broadcast on Radio 4.
I didn't agree with it but could see its raw power to bring disaffected voters or the less informed undecideds on board.
Good to see you back Ephie, I was thinking of you yesterday. Sorry to hear the gallstones are causing so much pain and discomfort.
Also relieved to hear from seeingclearly.
We only watched about 15 minutes of the debate last night.
But have to admit, despite all the flak Amber Rudd often deserves she was very good last night.
Eagle, Rudd & Sturgeon made a good team. In what we saw Sturgeon didn't dominate/outshine her team either. They seemed to have the momentum when we had to stop watching when the hard disc recorder switched to record two series we are following.
What did make me feel depressed was the Leave political broadcast on Radio 4.
I didn't agree with it but could see its raw power to bring disaffected voters or the less informed undecideds on board.
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Re: Friday 10th.June 2016
There's a great clip of Eagle on the attack on a Telegraph tweet on Peter Juke's timeline.
Not sure how to link it.
Johnson tries the poor me puppy dog look that might have worked on Matron at public school.
Not sure how to link it.
Johnson tries the poor me puppy dog look that might have worked on Matron at public school.
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Re: Friday 10th.June 2016
Morning
http://www.parliament.uk/business/commi ... hed-15-16/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Government must address incoherent approach to teacher training
PAC Report
http://www.parliament.uk/business/commi ... hed-15-16/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Government must address incoherent approach to teacher training
PAC Report
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Re: Friday 10th.June 2016
Morning all.
Off to a school meeting in a bit so won't be around much (not that I've contributed much lately anyway...)
This on the front page of the BBC.
Will there be a general election before Christmas?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/explainers-36467169
Off to a school meeting in a bit so won't be around much (not that I've contributed much lately anyway...)
This on the front page of the BBC.
Will there be a general election before Christmas?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/explainers-36467169
It is commonly accepted at Westminster that if the UK votes to leave the EU, Prime Minister David Cameron will be toast.
The debate has been whether his smoking, ruined career would last three hours - or just three seconds.
It may be slightly more complex than that.
Senior Leave Tories say, privately as well as publicly, that they would want him to stay on. Weirdly, I believe them.
It would suit them to have, for a while at least, a front man in negotiations with Brussels who was a prisoner of their design.
If there is the short-term economic chaos the prime minister has predicted, there will be those who argue it is his duty to cope with it, rather than spooking the markets even more by piling political uncertainty on top of economic jitters.
So I would expect him to set a date - as early as November or as late as next summer - when there would be a leadership election.
If I'm not here, then I'll be in the library. Or the other library.
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Re: Friday 10th.June 2016
Next Wednesday...
EXCLUSIVE: Michael Wilshaw AND David Carter summoned to answer MP questions together
http://schoolsweek.co.uk/wilshaw-vs-car ... he-knights
EXCLUSIVE: Michael Wilshaw AND David Carter summoned to answer MP questions together
http://schoolsweek.co.uk/wilshaw-vs-car ... he-knights
Two of education’s most prominent figures, Sir David Carter and Sir Michael Wilshaw, will appear side-by-side in front of MPs next week to face a grilling over multi-academy trusts.
The House of Commons education committee decided to call the national schools commissioner and chief inspector to appear together on Wednesday, in a move that could see tensions flare between the two men and the organisations they represent.
For Carter, comments from Wilshaw earlier this year that his regional commissioners were “faceless agents” of the government will have rubbed salt in existing wounds from when he served as RSC for the south west.
For Wilshaw, Carter’s eagerness for the regional commissioners to play a bigger role in school improvement has been taken as the equivalent of him trying to steal a march on Ofsted’s objectives.
Last edited by RogerOThornhill on Fri 10 Jun, 2016 8:10 am, edited 1 time in total.
If I'm not here, then I'll be in the library. Or the other library.
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Re: Friday 10th.June 2016
https://www.gov.uk/government/statistic ... april-2016" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Numbers of ESA Work Capability Assessment mandatory reconsiderations received and cleared by decision type and outcome.
Numbers of ESA Work Capability Assessment mandatory reconsiderations received and cleared by decision type and outcome.
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Re: Friday 10th.June 2016
Hi yahyahyahyah wrote:There's a great clip of Eagle on the attack on a Telegraph tweet on Peter Juke's timeline.
Not sure how to link it.
Johnson tries the poor me puppy dog look that might have worked on Matron at public school.
Is this the clip you're thinking of?
" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
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Re: Friday 10th.June 2016
Ed M on Radio 4 now.
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Re: Friday 10th.June 2016
I'm not sure this bodes well for anything.
Labour lose Laindon Park & Fryerns
Laindon Park and Fryerns - results
Election Candidate Party Votes %
Frank Ferguson UK Independence Party 2034 43% Elected
Gavin Dominic Callaghan Labour 1600 34% Not elected
Gary David Maylin Conservative 878 18% Not elected
Philip William Rackley Green Party 264 6% Not elected
Labour lose Laindon Park & Fryerns
Laindon Park and Fryerns - results
Election Candidate Party Votes %
Frank Ferguson UK Independence Party 2034 43% Elected
Gavin Dominic Callaghan Labour 1600 34% Not elected
Gary David Maylin Conservative 878 18% Not elected
Philip William Rackley Green Party 264 6% Not elected
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Re: Friday 10th.June 2016
That's Basildon way isn't it ? Maybe not surprising ?
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Re: Friday 10th.June 2016
Not surprising but disappointing. I'm not liking the "surge" to UKIP around the referendum date.....
Re: Friday 10th.June 2016
I'm getting rather fearful of the outcome. And I've just renewed my passport at considerable expense.PaulfromYorkshire wrote:Not surprising but disappointing. I'm not liking the "surge" to UKIP around the referendum date.....
Which leads me to wonder (or perhaps I haven't been paying enough attention) - what about passports?
Re: Friday 10th.June 2016
Good morfternoon.
Re: Friday 10th.June 2016
HindleA wrote:https://www.gov.uk/government/statistic ... april-2016
Numbers of ESA Work Capability Assessment mandatory reconsiderations received and cleared by decision type and outcome.
Thanks for this, A.
Early days yet - and I notice that although DWP is happy that progressively fewer decisions are revised/allowed, what they don't say is how many of those people go on to a full appeal.
Most of the non-revisions are in the group who are found Fit For Work - only 11% are revised. What's interesting is the groupings - 25,000 people had a grouping they disagreed with and nearly all of them had a revision. It would seem that even when it is agreed that a person has ESA entitlement, the allocated group isn't right.
For the avoidance of any doubt, I AM NOT A "CUSTOMER", DWP. It's not as if I can shop elsewhere, is it?
"Poverty is the worst form of violence" - Mahatma Gandhi
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Re: Friday 10th.June 2016
"The customer is always right"-hah
Re: Friday 10th.June 2016
Morning everyone, just wanted to let you know Corbyn is on channel 4's the Last Leg tonight.
Re: Friday 10th.June 2016
That's just what DWP wants everyone to think.ephemerid wrote:For the avoidance of any doubt, I AM NOT A "CUSTOMER", DWP. It's not as if I can shop elsewhere, is it?
If you don't like it, go somewhere else.
Re: Friday 10th.June 2016
Good-morning, everyone.
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Re: Friday 10th.June 2016
Hi all
Well seems like momentum is moving towards 'Leave' but mainly on the grounds that the Great British People are inexcusably lazy and stupid
Just to make my point clear - I am not a rabid Europhile and I also know there are some good arguments for considering Leave
I know that the EU is too technocratic and can lack a sense of empathy. I know also that it can be tortuous in its decisions and that it doesn't respond quickly when needed. It is also poor at communicating. It is also a tool that supports globalization and corporate power but that is not always the case and it can also be used as a balwark. There is also the Skinner view that the EU defaults to a capitalist model and that it would act to prevent a socialist approach - that is arguable
Few are making these arguments though and we are also not deciding whether to join or not - it is to disentagle 40 years of one of the pillars of our state
There are 3 options for us post Brexit as I see it
EEA
Norway Option
If you want some sovereignty back then this could be an option. It is not a big change though in most areas and the penalty is 'taxation without representation'. Still need to demonstrate Free Movement and also still have access to the Single market with all the rules so applied.
This option would minimise economic effect (apart from run on the pound just after), make no difference for immigration and, for me, would ask why bother?
Not sure many people voting Leave are thinking of this option though
EFTA
Switzerland Option
EFTA is an odd one as most countries are members of the EU and EEA as well...only Switzerland seems to sit outside and so has to have bilateral treaties with the EU. essentially it is a place for the pig-headed Swiss to be without admitting they are linked to the EU so strongly. It also means they are more vulnerable to the EU using them as an example as has been shown when they tried to restric free movement after 2014 referendum and there is a risk all the bilaterals will fail.....something that is worrying them a lot over here.
Again to have access to the market there has to me Free Movement, and agreement to be part of Schengen. By not signing up to all the EEA/EU structures there is a price demanded of free movement.
I cannot see why this would be a sensible option - the EEA would be much better - as it leaves a deal of uncertainty with no real benefits
Again, don't see the Leave lot looking to this
Custom Arrangement/Complete Break
As immigration seems to be the be all and end all for virtually all the Brexit mob despite what they try to say then this is the only option. Massive uncertainty, collapse of inward investment and a run on the pound are almost guaranteed I think....the markets do not like surprises and uncertainty.....and, as there is no Brexit strategy, this will be the only option
The focus on here is Free Movement - the only way to curb free movement is to work from the inside and have the overall EU rules change...if you are outside and try to block it you will have no access to the Single Market with all the implications of that - and also the introduction of visas and border controls to move abroad
The reason I am so angry with most, but not all, Brexiters is that they are blaming the EU for problems caused by our own Government. They also demonstarte extreme arrogance in assuming we can block Free Movement with no consequences to the economy. If you are so focused on immigration that you are prepared to wreck the economy in the short and medium term then that is at least logical but crazy
Anyone from the left who is considering out I would say your reasons may be logical - and there are logical reasons for believing what you do - but I would suggest you follow the road of Corbyn because it will not be your desired UK that will be the result. It will be one where the focus is on cutting immigration as the one and only objective - what will happen to the required focus on climate change and other important subjects under a country whose people have just voted to separate from our nearest neighbours because they don't like foreigners very much!
I am sorry for the rant but this is all I am hearing from family and colleagues who want to leave.....there are too many foreigners and they are destroying our culture and the NHS and the schools and everything else! But at the same time we are so important that there will be no consequences from us leaving!
I just hope that 'fear' does prevail over what they are intending to do because the consequences both economically and as a society will be grave - if they are not already!
Well seems like momentum is moving towards 'Leave' but mainly on the grounds that the Great British People are inexcusably lazy and stupid
Just to make my point clear - I am not a rabid Europhile and I also know there are some good arguments for considering Leave
I know that the EU is too technocratic and can lack a sense of empathy. I know also that it can be tortuous in its decisions and that it doesn't respond quickly when needed. It is also poor at communicating. It is also a tool that supports globalization and corporate power but that is not always the case and it can also be used as a balwark. There is also the Skinner view that the EU defaults to a capitalist model and that it would act to prevent a socialist approach - that is arguable
Few are making these arguments though and we are also not deciding whether to join or not - it is to disentagle 40 years of one of the pillars of our state
There are 3 options for us post Brexit as I see it
EEA
Norway Option
If you want some sovereignty back then this could be an option. It is not a big change though in most areas and the penalty is 'taxation without representation'. Still need to demonstrate Free Movement and also still have access to the Single market with all the rules so applied.
This option would minimise economic effect (apart from run on the pound just after), make no difference for immigration and, for me, would ask why bother?
Not sure many people voting Leave are thinking of this option though
EFTA
Switzerland Option
EFTA is an odd one as most countries are members of the EU and EEA as well...only Switzerland seems to sit outside and so has to have bilateral treaties with the EU. essentially it is a place for the pig-headed Swiss to be without admitting they are linked to the EU so strongly. It also means they are more vulnerable to the EU using them as an example as has been shown when they tried to restric free movement after 2014 referendum and there is a risk all the bilaterals will fail.....something that is worrying them a lot over here.
Again to have access to the market there has to me Free Movement, and agreement to be part of Schengen. By not signing up to all the EEA/EU structures there is a price demanded of free movement.
I cannot see why this would be a sensible option - the EEA would be much better - as it leaves a deal of uncertainty with no real benefits
Again, don't see the Leave lot looking to this
Custom Arrangement/Complete Break
As immigration seems to be the be all and end all for virtually all the Brexit mob despite what they try to say then this is the only option. Massive uncertainty, collapse of inward investment and a run on the pound are almost guaranteed I think....the markets do not like surprises and uncertainty.....and, as there is no Brexit strategy, this will be the only option
The focus on here is Free Movement - the only way to curb free movement is to work from the inside and have the overall EU rules change...if you are outside and try to block it you will have no access to the Single Market with all the implications of that - and also the introduction of visas and border controls to move abroad
The reason I am so angry with most, but not all, Brexiters is that they are blaming the EU for problems caused by our own Government. They also demonstarte extreme arrogance in assuming we can block Free Movement with no consequences to the economy. If you are so focused on immigration that you are prepared to wreck the economy in the short and medium term then that is at least logical but crazy
Anyone from the left who is considering out I would say your reasons may be logical - and there are logical reasons for believing what you do - but I would suggest you follow the road of Corbyn because it will not be your desired UK that will be the result. It will be one where the focus is on cutting immigration as the one and only objective - what will happen to the required focus on climate change and other important subjects under a country whose people have just voted to separate from our nearest neighbours because they don't like foreigners very much!
I am sorry for the rant but this is all I am hearing from family and colleagues who want to leave.....there are too many foreigners and they are destroying our culture and the NHS and the schools and everything else! But at the same time we are so important that there will be no consequences from us leaving!
I just hope that 'fear' does prevail over what they are intending to do because the consequences both economically and as a society will be grave - if they are not already!
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Re: Friday 10th.June 2016
Labour's loss in Basildon was not unexpected. They easily held a seat in Lincs that UKIP had won two years ago, though.
What *did* come out of the blue yesterday was the Greens almost winning a previously safe Labour seat in Lambeth. This is partly explained by the (deeply unpopular) library closures that the (*extremely* Progess dominated) Labour council have been carrying out, but also shenanigans over the selection of their candidate.
What *did* come out of the blue yesterday was the Greens almost winning a previously safe Labour seat in Lambeth. This is partly explained by the (deeply unpopular) library closures that the (*extremely* Progess dominated) Labour council have been carrying out, but also shenanigans over the selection of their candidate.
"IS TONTY BLAIR BEHIND THIS???!!!!111???!!!"
Re: Friday 10th.June 2016
I can't answer your passport question, I'm afraid, but nothing's going to change in a hurry. Besides, having a full passport will be handy if we vote out. Always better to be over-documented than under-documented, I would have thought. As to the potential result, it really is very difficult to call.PorFavor wrote:I'm getting rather fearful of the outcome. And I've just renewed my passport at considerable expense.PaulfromYorkshire wrote:Not surprising but disappointing. I'm not liking the "surge" to UKIP around the referendum date.....
Which leads me to wonder (or perhaps I haven't been paying enough attention) - what about passports?
The Indyref was very different, with "No" being comfortably ahead much of the time in the years leading up to it. In fact it's testament to how hopeless and toxic Cameron was that it ever got so close towards the end. Ultimately, however, the final result was more reflective of longer term trends than polls immediately before the vote. All of which leaves a big question mark over the EU vote, because longer term trends are all over the place. A few years back during the Euro crisis "leave" had some big leads, whereas 6 months ago "remain" was firmly ahead.
I just read a comment btl at the G from Swalby, though, which made the point about how all our problems are home grown and it was very compelling. Although the EU offers some protections and I feel the goal of similar neighbouring countries working together is an admirable one, contrary to popular opinion the EU really doesn't have that much influence on our day to day lives. This vote is important, but not half as important as the one just gone and the one to come in 2020. I want "in" to win, but I'm trying not to view "out" as a disaster, just in case. Unravelling our relationship will take time and then they'll be another general election where the views of those now voting "in" will play a part in shaping what comes next if we have gone for "out" (if you see what I mean. Not very eloquent this morning, I'm afraid.)
I share your concerns, though.
"Fall seven times, get up eight" - Japanese proverb
Re: Friday 10th.June 2016
I've never read such ugly posts below the line at the other place. Ever. Years I've been reading there.
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Re: Friday 10th.June 2016
Its their only really good result in recent weeks, though. They might actually have hoped to do better in other contests since the May elections.PaulfromYorkshire wrote:Not surprising but disappointing. I'm not liking the "surge" to UKIP around the referendum date.....
"IS TONTY BLAIR BEHIND THIS???!!!!111???!!!"
Re: Friday 10th.June 2016
@Willow904
Thanks for your response.
And yes - over-documented is definitely better, as you say. I might even be forced to use my passport if the worst happens!
I'm very much in favour of "Remain". Not least because of the make-up, mentality, and motivation of most of the "Out" political proponents as for any other reason. I find the thought of a majority voting for the ideals of that set of people the most worrying aspect of the whole thing. I wonder how many of those of the "Out" voters really know who and what they are aligning with. In the event of an "Out" I think many who voted that way are in for a rude and painful awakening. I think a lot of them believe that they are taking part in a whimsical and sentimental "Passport to Pimlico" scenario. Only the ending will be very different.
Edited to add an "of"
Thanks for your response.
And yes - over-documented is definitely better, as you say. I might even be forced to use my passport if the worst happens!
I'm very much in favour of "Remain". Not least because of the make-up, mentality, and motivation of most of the "Out" political proponents as for any other reason. I find the thought of a majority voting for the ideals of that set of people the most worrying aspect of the whole thing. I wonder how many of those of the "Out" voters really know who and what they are aligning with. In the event of an "Out" I think many who voted that way are in for a rude and painful awakening. I think a lot of them believe that they are taking part in a whimsical and sentimental "Passport to Pimlico" scenario. Only the ending will be very different.
Edited to add an "of"
Last edited by PorFavor on Fri 10 Jun, 2016 11:44 am, edited 1 time in total.
Re: Friday 10th.June 2016
12m ago 11:16
Germany has said that, if the UK leaves the EU, it will not be able to retain access to the single market.
Here’s our story. (Politics Live, Guardian)
Re: Friday 10th.June 2016
Can't say as I've noticed. Bloody-minded-ness and pig-headed-ness maybe.What Germany admires about UK - nonchalance, progress, inner independence and 'anti-authoritarian, defiant tendencies' (Politics Live, Guardian)
Re: Friday 10th.June 2016
The Quing's having her second birthday bash (at the tax payer's expense).
I had to laugh hollowly at David Cameron reading the "lilies in the field" passage in which we're exhorted not to be bothered about "raiment". What would David Cameron's mother say?
Edited to add -
It's her second "bash" - not her second birthday - for the avoidance of any doubt!
I had to laugh hollowly at David Cameron reading the "lilies in the field" passage in which we're exhorted not to be bothered about "raiment". What would David Cameron's mother say?
Edited to add -
It's her second "bash" - not her second birthday - for the avoidance of any doubt!
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Re: Friday 10th.June 2016
Thanks for your continued optimism AnatolyAnatolyKasparov wrote:Its their only really good result in recent weeks, though. They might actually have hoped to do better in other contests since the May elections.PaulfromYorkshire wrote:Not surprising but disappointing. I'm not liking the "surge" to UKIP around the referendum date.....
But it's exactly that I'm worried about. A Brexit surge? I guess best not to read too much into one by-election.
Look forward to your round-up later
Re: Friday 10th.June 2016
Took the words right out of my mouthPorFavor wrote:Can't say as I've noticed. Bloody-minded-ness and pig-headed-ness maybe.What Germany admires about UK - nonchalance, progress, inner independence and 'anti-authoritarian, defiant tendencies' (Politics Live, Guardian)
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Re: Friday 10th.June 2016
Oops, too big, here's the pic link instead
Late swings to the status quo vote at previous referendums
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CkaVc9OXIAAsDTg.jpg" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Late swings to the status quo vote at previous referendums
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CkaVc9OXIAAsDTg.jpg" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
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Re: Friday 10th.June 2016
EU referendum: Voters should blame government cuts instead of immigration, say Ed Miliband and Nicola Sturgeon
The former Labour leader has said Brexit campaigners are using EU immigration as an 'alibi'
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/po ... 74076.html
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Re: Friday 10th.June 2016
This is why they say leave needs to be well ahead to win, I take it.yahyah wrote:Oops, too big, here's the pic link instead
Late swings to the status quo vote at previous referendums
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CkaVc9OXIAAsDTg.jpg" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
"Fall seven times, get up eight" - Japanese proverb
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Re: Friday 10th.June 2016
Tweeted by Alex Andreou.
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Re: Friday 10th.June 2016
Yes, that's exactly it. Of course its *possible* this referendum won't follow the usual course, but nobody should bet their house on it.Willow904 wrote:This is why they say leave needs to be well ahead to win, I take it.yahyah wrote:Oops, too big, here's the pic link instead
Late swings to the status quo vote at previous referendums
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CkaVc9OXIAAsDTg.jpg" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
"IS TONTY BLAIR BEHIND THIS???!!!!111???!!!"
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- First Secretary of State
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Re: Friday 10th.June 2016
yahyah wrote:
Tweeted by Alex Andreou.
Would've saved me a lot of writing....although I don't think it emphasises the weakness ofthe Swiss position enough
If we were thinking of joining there is a different question and things to be asked.....it is not at all relevant although some Brexiteers keep asking 'would you join?' - I am not fond of hypothetical questions that are totally meaningless
What has turned me off completely against Brexit is the lack of any strategic clarity on what we aim to have.....you can argue that for Remain as well but I think it is less critical as a decision to stay is less terminal as a decision to quit
I have yet to understand which of the three options we want to go for above, and as the main focus is on immigration it can only be the worst case one.
I also think 'Project Fear' is justified in that situation because the option we are moving towards is bloody catastrophic.....why are people so unopen to discussion of the risk of potential scenaria....I work in risk management and to me it is obvious.
If we vote to leave my guess the reality will be (based also on no clear view on what UK position will be in 2020
Short-Term
Immediate run on the pound
Capital outflow
BoE spend billions on protecting the pound
Market attacks the pound
Interest rate hike
Medium Term
Investment reduction
Closure of some assets based on expectation outside EU
Some recovery based on weak pound but limited as have no industry left to exploit it
Housing market crash
EU crisis
Long-term
Who knows!!!
There may be a long-term benefit but who can say as we have no idea what the outcome of the negotiations will be but I can see absolutely no upsides in the medium term -up to when negotiations are complete due to the uncertainty - and plenty of downsides. If the pound does crash we may get some slight benefit but this will be out-weighed by the bad
I have yet to see a convincing argument as to why this is not a likely scenario
Re: Friday 10th.June 2016
JustMom wrote:Morning everyone, just wanted to let you know Corbyn is on channel 4's the Last Leg tonight.
With Russell Crowe.
Re: Friday 10th.June 2016
What - the real Russell Crowe or Stephen Crabb? (I seem to remember that David Cameron thinks they're alike, or the same person or something.)Maeght wrote:JustMom wrote:Morning everyone, just wanted to let you know Corbyn is on channel 4's the Last Leg tonight.
With Russell Crowe.
Re: Friday 10th.June 2016
The sort of argument goes both ways, doesn't it?The Labour MP Frank Field has said Labour’s EU stance could cost the party 1m votes. (See 12.30pm.) (Politics Live, Guardian)
Re: Friday 10th.June 2016
Yes, the real Russell Crowe.PorFavor wrote:What - the real Russell Crowe or Stephen Crabb? (I seem to remember that David Cameron thinks they're alike, or the same person or something.)Maeght wrote:JustMom wrote:Morning everyone, just wanted to let you know Corbyn is on channel 4's the Last Leg tonight.
With Russell Crowe.
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Re: Friday 10th.June 2016
Of course it does. These people shout "half of Labour working class voters back Brexit!" which means that half don't, and unsurprisingly the middle class elements in the party's "coalition" are overwhelmingly in favour of staying in. And the "they have nowhere else to go" shtick doesn't work anymore, still less after Scotland post-2014.PorFavor wrote:The sort of argument goes both ways, doesn't it?The Labour MP Frank Field has said Labour’s EU stance could cost the party 1m votes. (See 12.30pm.) (Politics Live, Guardian)
"IS TONTY BLAIR BEHIND THIS???!!!!111???!!!"
- rebeccariots2
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Re: Friday 10th.June 2016
Afternoon all. The EU referendum discussion has become a bit more interesting with the various interventions from Labour. I have some sympathy with those MPs who are saying Labour should have got out more and listened to the views and concerns of many more people re the EU and immigration in particular - and that the assumption that most previous Labour voters can be persuaded to vote Remain may be just that - an assumption. That certainly rings true for around here. I could say more about that, but won't.
What I haven't seen much attention paid to - or discussion of - is the emerging suggestions by various Labour politicians that the way free movement is put into practice in the EU in future should be up for grabs for reform should the UK vote to remain in the EU. I saw the other day that Ed Balls is the latest person to suggest this is necessary. I've seen one suggestion that free movement of workers from new member countries should only apply once their economies achieve relative parity with other members. Not sure how that would go down. Or how the discussion re reform gets underway. (Juncker is waiting in the wings with his pre prepared proposal for an EU army - deferred until after the UK referendum - and will no doubt want that to go first).
I thought the MP for Dudley who spoke on Radio 4 this morning had a lot of strength in his argument about Labour being much more forthright about addressing concerns about immigration - and his list of what could and should be done whilst remaining in the EU was impressive. We need more clarity such as that.
What I haven't seen much attention paid to - or discussion of - is the emerging suggestions by various Labour politicians that the way free movement is put into practice in the EU in future should be up for grabs for reform should the UK vote to remain in the EU. I saw the other day that Ed Balls is the latest person to suggest this is necessary. I've seen one suggestion that free movement of workers from new member countries should only apply once their economies achieve relative parity with other members. Not sure how that would go down. Or how the discussion re reform gets underway. (Juncker is waiting in the wings with his pre prepared proposal for an EU army - deferred until after the UK referendum - and will no doubt want that to go first).
I thought the MP for Dudley who spoke on Radio 4 this morning had a lot of strength in his argument about Labour being much more forthright about addressing concerns about immigration - and his list of what could and should be done whilst remaining in the EU was impressive. We need more clarity such as that.
Working on the wild side.
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Re: Friday 10th.June 2016
Afternoon folks,
Not seeing any of the rain that keeps getting forecasted. After the wettest winter on record, the ground is now drier than a witches t*ts.
Which is not why I logged in. Best wishes to all the the less than fully fit nesters and Ladbrokes have 'Remain' at 73%. I assume they base their odds on more than licking a finger and sticking it in the air.
Not seeing any of the rain that keeps getting forecasted. After the wettest winter on record, the ground is now drier than a witches t*ts.
Which is not why I logged in. Best wishes to all the the less than fully fit nesters and Ladbrokes have 'Remain' at 73%. I assume they base their odds on more than licking a finger and sticking it in the air.
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- Prime Minister
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Re: Friday 10th.June 2016
This made me sit up and think!Fall in number of full-time roads policing officers
The number of full-time roads policing officers in England and Wales has fallen for another year, new figures show.
http://home.bt.com/news/uk-news/fall-in ... ign=buffer
I can't remember the last time I saw a police officer on a motorbike. Nor can Mr Ohso...
We hang the petty thieves and appoint the great ones to public office. – Aesop
- rebeccariots2
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Re: Friday 10th.June 2016
No bonfire of labour laws following a Brexit vote
Written by: Stephen Taylor, Senior Lecturer in Human Resource ManagementUniversity of Exeter Posted On: 10th June 2016
Exeter University Business School's Senior Lecturer, Stephen Taylor, writes that 19,000 EU regulations affecting workers' rights cannot be repealed - in the event of a Leave vote - until any future government chooses to do so.
https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/ec ... rexit-vote" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Working on the wild side.
Re: Friday 10th.June 2016
The last time I recall regularly seeing law enforcement personnel on motorbikes was in 2005.ohsocynical wrote:This made me sit up and think!Fall in number of full-time roads policing officers
The number of full-time roads policing officers in England and Wales has fallen for another year, new figures show.
http://home.bt.com/news/uk-news/fall-in ... ign=buffer
I can't remember the last time I saw a police officer on a motorbike. Nor can Mr Ohso...
- rebeccariots2
- Prime Minister
- Posts: 14038
- Joined: Mon 25 Aug, 2014 8:20 pm
Re: Friday 10th.June 2016
I ended up reading that previous post on the non likelihood of mass repeal of labour laws post Brexit having gone to take a look at who this Tory minister could possibly be ....
Ros Altmann - to save you the bother. She's got some very unappealing views - obviously didn't achieve the usual level of self censorship and let some of them slip through.PoliticsHome @politicshome 11m11 minutes ago
Tory minister forced to apologise for attack on 'undemocratic' Brexit voters: http://bit.ly/1Uascfi" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Working on the wild side.
Re: Friday 10th.June 2016
(my emphasis)rebeccariots2 wrote:No bonfire of labour laws following a Brexit vote
Written by: Stephen Taylor, Senior Lecturer in Human Resource ManagementUniversity of Exeter Posted On: 10th June 2016
Exeter University Business School's Senior Lecturer, Stephen Taylor, writes that 19,000 EU regulations affecting workers' rights cannot be repealed - in the event of a Leave vote - until any future government chooses to do so.
https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/ec ... rexit-vote" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
This is the worry right there.
Forgive me, friends, I'm frightened of the UK voting to leave the EU.
I apologise for allowing my anxiety to lead me to post with haste and rudeness.
I ask your pardon.
Re: Friday 10th.June 2016
I saw loads a few weeks ago...... accompanying the Tour de Yorkshire.ohsocynical wrote:This made me sit up and think!Fall in number of full-time roads policing officers
The number of full-time roads policing officers in England and Wales has fallen for another year, new figures show.
http://home.bt.com/news/uk-news/fall-in ... ign=buffer
I can't remember the last time I saw a police officer on a motorbike. Nor can Mr Ohso...
One world, like it or not - John Martyn
Re: Friday 10th.June 2016
Ice cream is a wonderful food. It's improved my mood tremendously. May I get everyone some?