Wednesday 15th June 2016

Post by **refitman** » Wed 15 Jun, 2016 7:11 am

Morning all.

yahyah · Post by **yahyah** » Wed 15 Jun, 2016 7:30 am

Morning.

One for cat lovers, Welsh First Minister Carwyn Jones says Leave campaigners have no more power to make funding promises than his family's cat.

http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/polit ... s-11473049" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

yahyah · Post by **yahyah** » Wed 15 Jun, 2016 8:06 am

Oh lord. Norman Smith saying something about ...''looking increasingly like a Brexit government in waiting''

Did anyone hear what Smith actually said to conjure up that nightmare scenario ?

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Wed 15 Jun, 2016 8:09 am

yahyah wrote:Oh lord. Norman Smith saying something about ...''looking increasingly like a Brexit government in waiting''

Did anyone hear what Smith actually said to conjure up that nightmare scenario ?

Oh, God - really? And I was just about to switch on the news. I don't think I'm equal to it, now.

yahyah · Post by **yahyah** » Wed 15 Jun, 2016 8:13 am

An economist's view of how different margins in the referendum result might impact on business and the markets.

He says the worst outcome economically & for businesses would be a 55% Leave win on a 60% turnout, and the pound would get hammered.

http://www.worldfirst.com/uk/blog/econo ... june-2016/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

rebeccariots2 · Post by **rebeccariots2** » Wed 15 Jun, 2016 8:18 am

And my 'Oh God' is bloody Osborne saying he'll carry out an emergency budget and impose extra austerity .... he's playing a really really dangerous game. The Brexit 57 Tory MPs have issued a statement saying they will vote that down in the HoC if he tries it on. And set out their timescale for a withdrawal programme from the EU over 4 years. They say they'll set up a cross party working group to negotiate and plan.

Just when I was coming around to deciding not to vote at all ... the way Osborne is behaving and talking makes me think fuck you - if you want to threaten in this way I might just bloody vote Leave. His days as Chancellor must be numbered - surely - please someone. He's threatening the 'economic chaos' by his own words and actions as much as anything else.

rebeccariots2 · Post by **rebeccariots2** » Wed 15 Jun, 2016 8:20 am

And Osborne has just repeated that the pull factor to the EU is all about people coming here for our very generous welfare .... and that's how they'll deal with too much immigration. GAAAAAH.

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Wed 15 Jun, 2016 8:22 am

rebeccariots2 wrote:And my 'Oh God' is bloody Osborne saying he'll carry out an emergency budget and impose extra austerity .... he's playing a really really dangerous game. The Brexit 57 Tory MPs have issued a statement saying they will vote that down in the HoC if he tries it on. And set out their timescale for a withdrawal programme from the EU over 4 years. They say they'll set up a cross party working group to negotiate and plan.

Just when I was coming around to deciding not to vote at all ... the way Osborne is behaving and talking makes me think fuck you - if you want to threaten in this way I might just bloody vote Leave. His days as Chancellor must be numbered - surely - please someone. He's threatening the 'economic chaos' by his own words and actions as much as anything else.

The whole thing's turning into a rather dangerous version of "Call My Bluff", isn't it? Politicians who think that the future of the country, and the people in it, is their own private game.

rebeccariots2 · Post by **rebeccariots2** » Wed 15 Jun, 2016 8:22 am

And this anger btw is because I think Osborne would impose more cuts on the poorest in society anyway, anytime, anyplace. He's proven himself to be an utter shit on that score.

rebeccariots2 · Post by **rebeccariots2** » Wed 15 Jun, 2016 8:23 am

Robert Oxley ‏@roxley 8s8 seconds ago
Osborne says this is how any Chancellor would respond. Darling faced with an actual crisis in 2008 chose precisely opposite fiscal policies

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Wed 15 Jun, 2016 8:24 am

Good morfternoon.

yahyah · Post by **yahyah** » Wed 15 Jun, 2016 8:24 am

Isn't Alastair Darling saying similar though ?

I agree that what Osborne is saying, and the way it is being headlined, by the Times for example, will likely make people take an adolescent 'up yours mate' knee jerk response. Which would be a shame.
Trying to stay in 'adult', not 'rebellious child' (ref psychologist Eric Berne) is what is needed in such difficult situations.

yahyah · Post by **yahyah** » Wed 15 Jun, 2016 8:26 am

Have just seen your post with Oxley's tweet....yet am sure Radio 4 lumped Darling in with 'Brexit will mean an emergency budget' or financial cutbacks'

yahyah · Post by **yahyah** » Wed 15 Jun, 2016 8:32 am

As usual, a search engine is my friend.

Darling & Osborne are appearing together today, there's a brief report of what they will say here :

https://www.politicshome.com/news/europ ... -emergency" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Darling does appear to agree that there will be duty increases and tax rises.
We'll have to wait until the actual event of course.

rebeccariots2 · Post by **rebeccariots2** » Wed 15 Jun, 2016 8:33 am

Osborne is the worst cheerleader for Remain IMO ... on Newsnight last night they told us that No 10 had decided firmly to stick with scaring us witless about the economy for the last 10 days of the campaign. A kind of prolonged Crosby firestorm tactic.

I don't feel adolescent in my response to this yahyah. I actually feel my intelligence is being insulted by the tactics. Osborne is going to mete out as much punishment as he can to the most vulnerable in his budgets regardless of what happens. He's got form. He was positively gloating about his 12bn of welfare cuts before the last election in his campaign. Now he wants to scare us ...

The three voters Radio 4 just asked about their response to his words weren't impressed either.

Post by **PaulfromYorkshire** » Wed 15 Jun, 2016 8:36 am

rebeccariots2 wrote:And my 'Oh God' is bloody Osborne saying he'll carry out an emergency budget and impose extra austerity .... he's playing a really really dangerous game. The Brexit 57 Tory MPs have issued a statement saying they will vote that down in the HoC if he tries it on. And set out their timescale for a withdrawal programme from the EU over 4 years. They say they'll set up a cross party working group to negotiate and plan.

Just when I was coming around to deciding not to vote at all ... the way Osborne is behaving and talking makes me think fuck you - if you want to threaten in this way I might just bloody vote Leave. His days as Chancellor must be numbered - surely - please someone. He's threatening the 'economic chaos' by his own words and actions as much as anything else.

He really is playing with fire RR2.

As I just tweeted, if Brexit is such a threat to national security and the economy, what on Earth were Cameron and Osborne doing calling the sodding referendum in the first place?

It's a full on omnishambolic mess.

rebeccariots2 · Post by **rebeccariots2** » Wed 15 Jun, 2016 8:37 am

Tory MPs Fight Back Over Osborne Brexit Budget
Nearly 60 MPs sign a letter saying they will vote down the "punishment budget" George Osborne is threatening if UK votes Brexit.http://news.sky.com/story/1712072/tory- ... xit-budget" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

rebeccariots2 · Post by **rebeccariots2** » Wed 15 Jun, 2016 8:42 am

: Portes on post Brexit Austerity Budget.jpg (64.83 KiB) Viewed 16313 times

ephemerid · Post by **ephemerid** » Wed 15 Jun, 2016 8:50 am

Morning all.

Osborne has no chance of doing what he says he'll do if Brexit happens. He and Cameron will either be forced out or whatever they think they can do now will be voted down in the event. As Ms.Riots says, Osborne would impose cuts on anyone if he thought it was expedient for one G.Osborne.....and yes, I often feel like saying "fuck you" to him and Camron, but the stakes are too high.

The thought of those two crowing about their victory is sickening, even though I want to remain; but the thought of the likes of Johnson, Gove, Grayling, IDS, et al in charge scares me rigid.

NHS England. What a bloody performance we've had. Show is at long last ensconced in the day case unit at Hereford - it has taken 2 years to get there. Outpatients appointments cancelled 3 times, booked surgery cancelled twice.
During that time, the nasal polyp he needs to have removed has grown to the extent that it's now in his throat. I'm just hoping the surgeon can excise it without any complications. Which wouldn't be an issue if it had been done 2 years ago.....

The parking at the hospital (and in town) is so expensive it's actually cheaper for me to make the 50-mile-plus round trip twice. When I dropped him off, nobody had a clue how long he'd be there or where he was on the list.
He's just texted to say he's first; so if all goes well I can pick him up at lunchtime. I hope the ran eases off a bit. Driving conditions are atrocious, and I'm not a very confident driver at the best of times.....

rebeccariots2 · Post by **rebeccariots2** » Wed 15 Jun, 2016 9:07 am

Hope it all goes OK at the hospital Ephie. Yes, parking charges are outrageous. We've still got them at Carmarthen.

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Wed 15 Jun, 2016 9:07 am

Morning

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-365 ... nel=social&" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Free childcare plans 'in jeopardy'

http://www.parliament.uk/business/commi ... hed-16-17/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

rebeccariots2 · Post by **rebeccariots2** » Wed 15 Jun, 2016 9:08 am

Paul Waugh ‏@paulwaugh 5m5 minutes ago
So watch for Nigel Adams and David Nuttall for their PMQs. Eurosceptics really furious over BrexitBudget threat to tear up Tory manifesto

So it's PMQs today - had forgotten that. Sounds as though there might be a bit of blue on blue.

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Wed 15 Jun, 2016 9:18 am

I wouldn't vote "Out" (it's too late for me in any case since I've already cast my vote) purely as a means of getting at David Cameron and George Osborne, momentarily tempting as it may be. However, I am now getting rather worried about how buoyed up and confident they will be if "Remain" prevails. Will they (particularly George Osborne) take success in the referendum as a free pass to slash and burn? That's what they've always wanted to do, after all. One way or another, there now doesn't seem to be a "safe" option whatever stripe of Conservative we end up with.

RogerOThornhill · Post by **RogerOThornhill** » Wed 15 Jun, 2016 9:47 am

rebeccariots2 wrote:
Robert Oxley ‏@roxley 8s8 seconds ago
Osborne says this is how any Chancellor would respond. Darling faced with an actual crisis in 2008 chose precisely opposite fiscal policies

Quite.

Darling didn't have an emergency budget - the first time anyone was aware of the hit to public finances was the budget in April 2009.

Post by **PaulfromYorkshire** » Wed 15 Jun, 2016 9:55 am

Nice to see Jo Johnson campaigning against his brother. In a kind of "stabbing his brother in the back" sort of way......

StephenDolan · Post by **StephenDolan** » Wed 15 Jun, 2016 10:33 am

So, PMQs.

What questions are we hoping for?

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Wed 15 Jun, 2016 10:35 am

Ballsed link up see ohso's link later.

Brexit flotilla’s star trawler was involved in £63m fishing fraud

"Give us your ####ing boat"

gilsey · Post by **gilsey** » Wed 15 Jun, 2016 10:39 am

I watched a bit of Newsnight last night as they were just up the road in Middlesbrough, although I don't think it makes much difference where they are. Lots of leavers giving garbled lists of reasons, nearly all of which had nothing at all to do with the EU and everything to do with the current and last UK govt.
I'm guessing these were the same people who 14 months ago would have said 'they're all the same' and not bothered turning out to vote.
Why then do they accept a message from one bunch of tories rather than another? They really are all the same.

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Wed 15 Jun, 2016 10:52 am

John McDonnell, the shadow chancellor, said the party would never support such an emergency budget and disowned Alistair Darling’s backing for the approach.

This maybe a natural Tory approach but no Labour chancellor would respond to an economic shock in this manner. And neither did Alistair Darling in 2008. Any credible economist would tell you that raising taxes or cutting spending or both in response to an economic shock is the wrong thing to do.

It’s deeply worryingly that this suggests the current Tory chancellor thinks this is a sensible response. But it highlights what is on offer under a Tory Brexit as George Osborne is only saying what those Tories campaigning for a Tory Brexit truly believe deep down. (Politics Live, Guardian - my emphasis)

Yes - but my point above (rather incoherently made, I think) is that, even if we vote to "Remain", I fear that this is what a buoyed up, victorious George Osborne will do anyway.

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Wed 15 Jun, 2016 11:09 am

https://www.theguardian.com/business/ec ... referendum" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

George Osborne's Brexit budget would guarantee a recession

There is, in other words, not the remotest chance that a leave vote will lead to a £30bn austerity budget. It is a scare tactic, the last roll of the dice from a desperate chancellor.

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Wed 15 Jun, 2016 11:12 am

StephenDolan wrote:So, PMQs.

What questions are we hoping for?

Would the Prime Minister like to pick his teeth up off the ground here or in the Men's toilet?

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Wed 15 Jun, 2016 11:14 am

@rebeccariots2
Outstanding posts this morning, thank you.
I saw part of Osborne's threats in an article late last night.

Eric_WLothian · Post by **Eric_WLothian** » Wed 15 Jun, 2016 11:17 am

After my comments on the Brexit leaflet I received yesterday, it's perhaps worth mentioning the "remain" leaflet delivered to my daughter today.

Whereas the "leave" leaflet had all sorts of misinformation, that certainly can't be said of the "remain" one. Just a simple message - "vote in, don't let Farage speak for you".
Yep - that's it. No economic argument, no rebuttal of the millions of Turks waiting on the doorstep, nothing!

Not that I don't agree with the sentiment - but if this is the best the "remainers" can do, I'm not surprised they're (allegedly) losing the campaign.

Maeght · Post by **Maeght** » Wed 15 Jun, 2016 11:17 am

He might, but I don't think he will last long enough to have the opportunity.

One thing I did note in the ' Brexit Budget' was the fact that he mentioned tax increases. This is unusual and normally a real no no for the Tories. Wonder if this will make certain people reconsider?

Also pondering on the possibility of a very close Remain win, a vote of no confidence in Cameron's government , all hell breaking loose (not sure if it could be worse than now ) before a General Election.

That Chinese phrase about 'interesting times' causing me even more brain ache than usual.

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Wed 15 Jun, 2016 11:18 am

PorFavor wrote:I wouldn't vote "Out" (it's too late for me in any case since I've already cast my vote) purely as a means of getting at David Cameron and George Osborne, momentarily tempting as it may be. However, I am now getting rather worried about how buoyed up and confident they will be if "Remain" prevails. Will they (particularly George Osborne) take success in the referendum as a free pass to slash and burn? That's what they've always wanted to do, after all. One way or another, there now doesn't seem to be a "safe" option whatever stripe of Conservative we end up with.

Absolutely no chance of that IMO. It will be a phyrric victory for them even if "remain" prevails, they won't shrug this one off the way they did the Scottish referendum.

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Wed 15 Jun, 2016 11:18 am

@yahyah
I love you dearly and always love reading your words - we're especially connected, I think, we're alike in some ways. That's a compliment to us both.

Maeght · Post by **Maeght** » Wed 15 Jun, 2016 11:19 am

Sorry my post was in response to Por Favor earlier. I'm just not quick enough!

gilsey · Post by **gilsey** » Wed 15 Jun, 2016 11:21 am

Eric_WLothian wrote:After my comments on the Brexit leaflet I received yesterday, it's perhaps worth mentioning the "remain" leaflet delivered to my daughter today.

Whereas the "leave" leaflet had all sorts of misinformation, that certainly can't be said of the "remain" one. Just a simple message - "vote in, don't let Farage speak for you".
Yep - that's it. No economic argument, no rebuttal of the millions of Turks waiting on the doorstep, nothing!

Not that I don't agree with the sentiment - but if this is the best the "remainers" can do, I'm not surprised they're (allegedly) losing the campaign.

Actually, I think that's better than the ones we got, which were full of detailed arguments but you had to look carefully to see which side they were on.

Eric_WLothian · Post by **Eric_WLothian** » Wed 15 Jun, 2016 11:28 am

gilsey wrote:
Eric_WLothian wrote:After my comments on the Brexit leaflet I received yesterday, it's perhaps worth mentioning the "remain" leaflet delivered to my daughter today.

Whereas the "leave" leaflet had all sorts of misinformation, that certainly can't be said of the "remain" one. Just a simple message - "vote in, don't let Farage speak for you".
Yep - that's it. No economic argument, no rebuttal of the millions of Turks waiting on the doorstep, nothing!

Not that I don't agree with the sentiment - but if this is the best the "remainers" can do, I'm not surprised they're (allegedly) losing the campaign.
Actually, I think that's better than the ones we got, which were full of detailed arguments but you had to look carefully to see which side they were on.

Was that the government-sponsored one that was supposed to go to every household? (We're still waiting for that one)!

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Wed 15 Jun, 2016 11:28 am

@Ephemerid
Drive safe, my dear friend, hold me close to you. Give my love to Show, please - may his passages be clear and his health good.

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Wed 15 Jun, 2016 11:33 am

@RobertSnozers
I'm deeply disappointed in Darling and hope to discover Osborne misappropriated the former Chancellor.
Darling may not be everyone's favourite but he knows a thing about successfully salvaging economic systems during a crisis.
His standing with Osborne is, I hope, not entirely true.

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Wed 15 Jun, 2016 11:34 am

Good-morning, everyone.

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Wed 15 Jun, 2016 11:52 am

Whatever else he's done, George Osborne has now given "Out" the opportunity to present themselves as the good guys wading in to defend the masses. I think he may well be the one who will be pointed at as responsible for a "Brexit" victory (other than the idiot David Cameron who called the bloody referendum in the first place).

Tubby Isaacs · Post by **Tubby Isaacs** » Wed 15 Jun, 2016 12:06 pm

Do we know all the cuts and tax rises would be this year? That would make no sense.

For them to come in gradually though after being announced in an emergency budget, I could see that.

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Wed 15 Jun, 2016 12:11 pm

RobertSnozers wrote:
citizenJA wrote:@RobertSnozers
I'm deeply disappointed in Darling and hope to discover Osborne misappropriated the former Chancellor.
Darling may not be everyone's favourite but he knows a thing about successfully salvaging economic systems during a crisis.
His standing with Osborne is, I hope, not entirely true.
I suppose it's possible he was bounced into this and wasn't aware that Osborne was going to announce this fiscal punishment beating - he's being very cagey about what Labour would do. But he ought to know what Osborne is capable of well enough by now.

I agree with you completely. No defence of Darling - here's the thing - did Darling agreed to it because he's scared as hell?

RogerOThornhill · Post by **RogerOThornhill** » Wed 15 Jun, 2016 12:13 pm

Just off to the British Museum to see the Sicily exhibition but this is odd...

School heavyweights join board as CentreForum becomes Education Policy Institute

http://schoolsweek.co.uk/school-heavywe ... institute/

A prominent think tank set up by the Liberal Democrats will abandon its political links and focus exclusively on education following a landmark name change and the recruitment of three top trustees from across the sector.

CentreForum, which has existed in its current guise since the mid-2000s, has today become the Education Policy Institute in a move that has completed the think tank’s shift in focus towards education, which began with the appointment of former schools minister David Laws as its executive chair last August.

Except that the three have been on the Board of Centre Forum for some time* - the author of the piece is going to ask the question of why they're pretending that these are new appointments.

* Taking a snapshot of the webpage for the Board in Jan 2016 for a different purpose was a smart move...

yahyah · Post by **yahyah** » Wed 15 Jun, 2016 12:15 pm

Eric_WLothian wrote:After my comments on the Brexit leaflet I received yesterday, it's perhaps worth mentioning the "remain" leaflet delivered to my daughter today.

Whereas the "leave" leaflet had all sorts of misinformation, that certainly can't be said of the "remain" one. Just a simple message - "vote in, don't let Farage speak for you".
Yep - that's it. No economic argument, no rebuttal of the millions of Turks waiting on the doorstep, nothing!

Not that I don't agree with the sentiment - but if this is the best the "remainers" can do, I'm not surprised they're (allegedly) losing the campaign.

We had that Remain one too. But at least it was clearly a political campaign leaflet in its colour and style. The Vote Leave one we had was black and white with a little bit of red text. It was headed that it was 'an official communication', obviously trying to make people think that the fact is was 'official' meant it was therefore true.

yahyah · Post by **yahyah** » Wed 15 Jun, 2016 12:19 pm

The British Medical Journal editorial is pretty frank, and tells doctors why they should vote remain.
The article explains why they intervening.

http://www.bmj.com/content/353/bmj.i3302" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Edited to remove pic of part of the BMJ editorial text, it made the page too wide.

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Wed 15 Jun, 2016 12:21 pm

http://www.communitycare.co.uk/2016/06/ ... principle/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

High Court allows first legal challenge over Care Act wellbeing principle
Luke Davey, 39, claims Oxfordshire council has breached statutory duties with cuts to his care package

Tubby Isaacs · Post by **Tubby Isaacs** » Wed 15 Jun, 2016 12:24 pm

I'm more inclined to be kind to Osborne and Darling than most here.

If it's on the economy, Leave have good chance. If it's on immigration, they're done for. Interventions like "lose x by 2030 didn't work. Cuts and tax rises coming right up, that might.