Thursday 23rd June 2016

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Thu 23 Jun, 2016 10:57 am

RobertSnozers wrote:
StephenDolan wrote:
PaulfromYorkshire wrote:Yet of course the usual suspects are saying that Corbyn has had a dreadful campaign.
Which leader of a party is likely to carry 2/3 of its supporters?

Farage. Yes.
Corbyn. Highly likely.
Sturgeon. Yes.
Farron. Yes.
Cameron. Probably not.

What time is the 1922 meetup? The revolver, whisky tumbler and knives need prepping.
Not sure Sturgeon can rely on 2/3. There are a hefty number of nationalists who will either vote out or not at all.

I'm not sure LibDem voters can be divided in to 2/3.

I think we are just counting those who actually vote here?

ohsocynical · Post by **ohsocynical** » Thu 23 Jun, 2016 10:58 am

ScarletGas wrote:
PorFavor wrote:
PaulfromYorkshire wrote:Btw can anyone remember what Dave's "deal" was?

I do remember that he dealt us a pretty crap hand, as usual. Referendum was trumps as I recall.
Dave tells us he will stay (may not be his choice) whatever the result and will negotiate the terms if its Brexit. So if this comes to pass why would you what someone who has patently failed in a previous negotiation negotiating on your behalf again? Isn't that Einstein's definition of madness?

We're doomed, doomed I tell ye ... And I reckon Einstein would have agreed.

ohsocynical · Post by **ohsocynical** » Thu 23 Jun, 2016 10:59 am

The weather forecast for our neck of the woods today...

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weat ... /gcpkqzuj9" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

ohsocynical · Post by **ohsocynical** » Thu 23 Jun, 2016 11:02 am

And it's starting to rain again.

StephenDolan · Post by **StephenDolan** » Thu 23 Jun, 2016 11:05 am

4am seems to be when it starts getting interesting. Think I'll give ITV a go.

The thought of late night political coverage and posting reminds me of LadyC.

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Thu 23 Jun, 2016 11:16 am

PaulfromYorkshire wrote:Do we already have a playlist?

I found this one

Brexit party playlist

The Final Countdown – Europe
Never Forget – Take That
Leave Right Now – Will Young
Never Gonna Give You Up – Rick Astley
Don’t Look Back in Anger – Oasis
Irreplaceable – Beyoncé
I Will Survive – Gloria Gaynor
Stay Another Day – East 17
Should I Stay Or Should I Go? – The Clash
Stay with Me – Shakespeare’s Sister
Don’t You Want Me? – Human League
Don’t Leave Me This Way – The Communards
Please Don’t Go – Haddaway

So Happy Together - The Turtles

(I know I posted it yesterday. Apologies for no new fresh material. I really like the tune.)

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Thu 23 Jun, 2016 11:17 am

StephenDolan wrote:4am seems to be when it starts getting interesting. Think I'll give ITV a go.

The thought of late night political coverage and posting reminds me of LadyC.

I miss her.

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Thu 23 Jun, 2016 11:20 am

Final poll from MORI - 52-48 to remain. They had it as 53-47 leave last week.

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Thu 23 Jun, 2016 11:20 am

ohsocynical wrote:The weather forecast for our neck of the woods today...

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weat ... /gcpkqzuj9" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Sunny and warm forecast for us - no rain

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weat ... /gcqmw2y12" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

mbc1955 · Post by **mbc1955** » Thu 23 Jun, 2016 11:31 am

Well, ladies and gents all, the time is here. I shall shortly be leaving my pokey little flat in the direction of the bus stop. I shall, however, ignore my stop and walk on down the road, to my polling station, from where, having voted to Remain exactly as I did 41 years ago, I shall continue to the next stop and go to work, until 9.00pm.

As for tonight, in the immortal words of B.H. (Calcutta - failed), " I fair dreads it".

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Thu 23 Jun, 2016 11:33 am

Temulkar wrote:I voted in although like OhSo I have wavered a lot. I do have an awful sense of foreboding though.

'There is a tide in the affairs of men, Which taken at the flood, leads on to fortune. Omitted, all the voyage of their life is bound in shallows and in miseries. On such a full sea are we now afloat. And we must take the current when it serves, or lose our ventures.'

It's lately been an unsettled, angry, ambivalent and tragic time. Feelings of impending dread may be caused by these past events.
I take presentiments seriously though. They're often accurate.

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Thu 23 Jun, 2016 11:39 am

PaulfromYorkshire wrote:Useful piece on when the results will be known

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06 ... ow-the-wi/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Looks like getting a few hours kip and setting an early alarm may be a sensible strategy. Who will be here at 4.00 am?

I doubt I'll be online because I don't want to disturb Mr citizen's sleep. We'll see. He may stay up, we'll see.

gilsey · Post by **gilsey** » Thu 23 Jun, 2016 11:47 am

Temulkar wrote: 'There is a tide in the affairs of men, Which taken at the flood, leads on to fortune. Omitted, all the voyage of their life is bound in shallows and in miseries. On such a full sea are we now afloat. And we must take the current when it serves, or lose our ventures.'

Re our life borne in shallows and miseries, more on the increase in death rate and fall in life expectancy, I think there were preliminary reports a while ago.
http://visual.ons.gov.uk/dementiaalzhei ... the-1960s/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Provisional analysis of death registrations in England and Wales show a 5.6% increase in deaths in 2015; the biggest year-on-year percentage increase seen since 1967-68, when deaths were up by 6.3% on the previous year............
An extra 28,189 deaths were registered in 2015 compared with 12 months earlier, increasing from 501,424 deaths in 2014 to 529,613 in 2015.

There were 24,065 more deaths registered in the first three months of 2015 compared with the same period in 2014, with 11,865 of these extra deaths registered in January alone, when flu was circulating at its highest levels.

The number of death registrations remained much higher than average until June 2015, before dropping in the rest of the year to nearer the five-year average (deaths in 2010-14).

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Thu 23 Jun, 2016 11:50 am

PaulfromYorkshire wrote:
letsskiptotheleft wrote:News from my polling station, so close I can almost spit the distance is that it is extremely busy..

Detached from politics to a certain degree, this referendum could make me more detached, or invigorate?

But, the malicious side of me wants numpties like Mike Read, Keith Chegwin, that clown who owns Weatherspoons, Dyson cleaners and anti-establishment-member of the establishment Farage put back in their box.

Oh yes, hasn't Gary Lineker turned out to be a good 'un...
I hadn't realised there will be twelve regional counts, each with its own result.

They won't all be Remain I reckon

Yeah, that may make things awkward
"[enter REGION here] VOTED [enter IN or OUT here]! [enter EPITHET here], ALL OF THEM!"

StephenDolan · Post by **StephenDolan** » Thu 23 Jun, 2016 11:50 am

Private good, public bad.

http://www.theatlantic.com/news/archive ... wn/488306/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Willow904 · Post by **Willow904** » Thu 23 Jun, 2016 11:57 am

From the Guardian live blog:

Mike Smithson, an election analyst at politicalbetting.com points out that all the final phone polls showed Remain in the lead, whereas all but one of the online polls show Leave in the lead. One of the methods was wrong, we just don’t know which yet.

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Thu 23 Jun, 2016 12:00 pm

“I run a polling station and it is very noticeable how many voters today are bringing their own pens and even sharpies to register their vote rather than use the pencils provided in the booth. Worrying lack of trust in the counting system and I assume someone has put out some sort of rumour that votes made in pencil can be erased, which as you know is ridiculous. (Politics Live, Guardian)

We could have a new way of doing exit polls here. Support for "Out" being roughly measured by the number of imported writing implements.

Post by **PaulfromYorkshire** » Thu 23 Jun, 2016 12:13 pm

Salford at 1.30 am looks like an interesting count.

It appears to be a 50:50 ish area.

ohsocynical · Post by **ohsocynical** » Thu 23 Jun, 2016 12:24 pm

That's it. My vote in.

Had to laugh. Two women, mother and daughter, made a great fuss about extracting a pen from mother's handbag in order to vote.

Raised eyebrows and a couple of smirks all round.

Ooooh the conspiracy theorists are going to be out in force tomorrow.

Willow904 · Post by **Willow904** » Thu 23 Jun, 2016 12:26 pm

I somehow ended up following "Vote Leave" on Twitter. I don't remember doing that. I just 'unfollowed' them, whoever they are, and took a small amount of pleasure in doing so on polling day!

ohsocynical · Post by **ohsocynical** » Thu 23 Jun, 2016 12:29 pm

StephenDolan wrote:4am seems to be when it starts getting interesting. Think I'll give ITV a go.

The thought of late night political coverage and posting reminds me of LadyC.

She would have had plenty to keep us informed about. London Mayor election, the by election at Tooting, The Police Commissioner debacle, and now the Referendum.

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Thu 23 Jun, 2016 12:33 pm

Willow904 wrote:From the Guardian live blog:
Mike Smithson, an election analyst at politicalbetting.com points out that all the final phone polls showed Remain in the lead, whereas all but one of the online polls show Leave in the lead. One of the methods was wrong, we just don’t know which yet.

The online polls only had leave ahead by 1-2 points, however, if they did at all.

There is a final YouGov out shortly after voting ends, btw.

ohsocynical · Post by **ohsocynical** » Thu 23 Jun, 2016 12:34 pm

Willow904 wrote:I somehow ended up following "Vote Leave" on Twitter. I don't remember doing that. I just 'unfollowed' them, whoever they are, and took a small amount of pleasure in doing so on polling day!

I have wrestled with my sense of fair play on Twitter. Some of the people I follow who are devoted Labour supporters have been avid Leavers. I've been scrolling quickly past their Tweets, but a couple have really tried my patience.

I only blocked one. Anyone who starts off with 'For Heaven's sake woman' gets short shrift.

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Thu 23 Jun, 2016 12:44 pm

In maybe their first significant polling intervention since last year's GE, Populus are saying 55-45 to stay in.

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Thu 23 Jun, 2016 12:47 pm

The poll also has some interesting party breakdowns. It shows that 68% of Labour voters intend to vote Remain, but only 43% of those who voted Conservative at the general election intend to back Remain. (Politics Live, Guardian)

I'm sure David Cameron will be his usual gracious and magnanimous self in the event of a "Remain" win.

TobyLatimer · Post by **TobyLatimer** » Thu 23 Jun, 2016 12:48 pm

ohsocynical wrote:
TobyLatimer wrote:Fecking Virgin broadband went down an hour ago Latest update is 2 be back on at 05 30 tonite
Oh no!!!!

Back online.

Stupid feckin Branson with his superhubs.

I can't use the tablet or laptop when the broadband goes awol, I somehow manage to scramble a message or two using an antique candy bar type phone that gets piss poor internet (ie not a smartphone)

Willow904 · Post by **Willow904** » Thu 23 Jun, 2016 12:49 pm

ohsocynical wrote:
Willow904 wrote:I somehow ended up following "Vote Leave" on Twitter. I don't remember doing that. I just 'unfollowed' them, whoever they are, and took a small amount of pleasure in doing so on polling day!
I have wrestled with my sense of fair play on Twitter. Some of the people I follow who are devoted Labour supporters have been avid Leavers. I've been scrolling quickly past their Tweets, but a couple have really tried my patience.

I only blocked one. Anyone who starts off with 'For Heaven's sake woman' gets short shrift.

I've tried not to let my Twitter account get too political or too niche, but it's not always easy. I follow one moderate right winger, who links to blogs he writes, who I actually find quite interesting to read, but most are lefties. I've been reading the 'leave" and "remain" arguments on my feed, but have sat on the fence a bit myself, just linking articles rather than expressing an opinion. The 'catsagainstbrexit' seemed popular in my circle, though, so I seem to be mostly following like-minded types.

TobyLatimer · Post by **TobyLatimer** » Thu 23 Jun, 2016 12:51 pm

PaulfromYorkshire wrote:Do we already have a playlist?

I found this one

Brexit party playlist

The Final Countdown – Europe
Never Forget – Take That
Leave Right Now – Will Young
Never Gonna Give You Up – Rick Astley
Don’t Look Back in Anger – Oasis
Irreplaceable – Beyoncé
I Will Survive – Gloria Gaynor
Stay Another Day – East 17
Should I Stay Or Should I Go? – The Clash
Stay with Me – Shakespeare’s Sister
Don’t You Want Me? – Human League
Don’t Leave Me This Way – The Communards
Please Don’t Go – Haddaway

[youtube]9zYUwY8jGx0[/youtube]

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Thu 23 Jun, 2016 12:51 pm

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... its-system" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Every week Charlotte sees desperation at first hand – outside the job centre
Frances Ryan

mbc1955 · Post by **mbc1955** » Thu 23 Jun, 2016 12:53 pm

Have now voted Remain. The Polling Station was quiet, one leaving as I arrived, one arriving as I left.

The next important decision today is how much to bid for that eBay item just before 8.30pm

TobyLatimer · Post by **TobyLatimer** » Thu 23 Jun, 2016 12:55 pm

Here's one for Mr Gove

Don't panic !

[youtube]mnRIejYv9mo[/youtube]

yahyah · Post by **yahyah** » Thu 23 Jun, 2016 12:59 pm

letsskiptotheleft wrote:News from my polling station, so close I can almost spit the distance is that it is extremely busy..

Detached from politics to a certain degree, this referendum could make me more detached, or invigorate?

But, the malicious side of me wants numpties like Mike Read, Keith Chegwin, that clown who owns Weatherspoons, Dyson cleaners and anti-establishment-member of the establishment Farage put back in their box.

Oh yes, hasn't Gary Lineker turned out to be a good 'un...

Some Kippers on Cif were whining about Lineker being part of the Establishment.
Their view of what being part of the Establishment seems a bit odd, not sure a footballer comes into the category as it is usually described.

yahyah · Post by **yahyah** » Thu 23 Jun, 2016 1:02 pm

PaulfromYorkshire wrote:Useful piece on when the results will be known

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06 ... ow-the-wi/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Looks like getting a few hours kip and setting an early alarm may be a sensible strategy. Who will be here at 4.00 am?

I will. Maybe earlier if I can't kip.

yahyah · Post by **yahyah** » Thu 23 Jun, 2016 1:05 pm

PaulfromYorkshire wrote:Do we already have a playlist?

I found this one

Brexit party playlist

The Final Countdown – Europe
Never Forget – Take That
Leave Right Now – Will Young
Never Gonna Give You Up – Rick Astley
Don’t Look Back in Anger – Oasis
Irreplaceable – Beyoncé
I Will Survive – Gloria Gaynor
Stay Another Day – East 17
Should I Stay Or Should I Go? – The Clash
Stay with Me – Shakespeare’s Sister
Don’t You Want Me? – Human League
Don’t Leave Me This Way – The Communards
Please Don’t Go – Haddaway

Lies - The Knickerbockers

ohsocynical · Post by **ohsocynical** » Thu 23 Jun, 2016 1:07 pm

yahyah wrote:
letsskiptotheleft wrote:News from my polling station, so close I can almost spit the distance is that it is extremely busy..

Detached from politics to a certain degree, this referendum could make me more detached, or invigorate?

But, the malicious side of me wants numpties like Mike Read, Keith Chegwin, that clown who owns Weatherspoons, Dyson cleaners and anti-establishment-member of the establishment Farage put back in their box.

Oh yes, hasn't Gary Lineker turned out to be a good 'un...
Some Kippers on Cif were whining about Lineker being part of the Establishment.
Their view of what being part of the Establishment seems a bit odd, not sure a footballer comes into the category as it is usually described.

A football manager, can't remember his name, was quoted as saying, getting work permits for a team of footballers is a right pain in the bum ... So we know how he voted!

Post by **PaulfromYorkshire** » Thu 23 Jun, 2016 1:08 pm

mbc1955 wrote:Have now voted Remain. The Polling Station was quiet, one leaving as I arrived, one arriving as I left.

The next important decision today is how much to bid for that eBay item just before 8.30pm

Tousled blond wig, slightly soiled, no longer needed.

ohsocynical · Post by **ohsocynical** » Thu 23 Jun, 2016 1:11 pm

From my local LP Facebook page.

Caroline Egglestone
52 mins
Just got back from telling at Bullbrook with Connor Jake Robinson, 130 people through the door in an hour! Only one shook his head at us, two bothered to stop and say they were in, one was Labour. One lady said she has a foreign surname and her husband an English sounding surname and they both received different Brexit leaflets through the post!

yahyah · Post by **yahyah** » Thu 23 Jun, 2016 1:13 pm

citizenJA wrote:
PaulfromYorkshire wrote:Useful piece on when the results will be known

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06 ... ow-the-wi/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Looks like getting a few hours kip and setting an early alarm may be a sensible strategy. Who will be here at 4.00 am?
I doubt I'll be online because I don't want to disturb Mr citizen's sleep. We'll see. He may stay up, we'll see.

I'm considering kipping on the sofa so as to maintain marital harmony.

fedup59 · Post by **fedup59** » Thu 23 Jun, 2016 1:13 pm

yahyah wrote:
PaulfromYorkshire wrote:Do we already have a playlist?

I found this one

Brexit party playlist

The Final Countdown – Europe
Never Forget – Take That
Leave Right Now – Will Young
Never Gonna Give You Up – Rick Astley
Don’t Look Back in Anger – Oasis
Irreplaceable – Beyoncé
I Will Survive – Gloria Gaynor
Stay Another Day – East 17
Should I Stay Or Should I Go? – The Clash
Stay with Me – Shakespeare’s Sister
Don’t You Want Me? – Human League
Don’t Leave Me This Way – The Communards
Please Don’t Go – Haddaway

Lies - The Knickerbockers

She ain't goin nowhere she's just leaving - guy Clarke

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Thu 23 Jun, 2016 1:14 pm

yahyah wrote:
citizenJA wrote:
PaulfromYorkshire wrote:Useful piece on when the results will be known

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06 ... ow-the-wi/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Looks like getting a few hours kip and setting an early alarm may be a sensible strategy. Who will be here at 4.00 am?
I doubt I'll be online because I don't want to disturb Mr citizen's sleep. We'll see. He may stay up, we'll see.

I'm considering kipping on the sofa so as to maintain marital harmony.

You've turned "Kipper" at this late stage in the game?

Post by **PaulfromYorkshire** » Thu 23 Jun, 2016 1:14 pm

yahyah wrote:
citizenJA wrote:
PaulfromYorkshire wrote:Useful piece on when the results will be known

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06 ... ow-the-wi/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Looks like getting a few hours kip and setting an early alarm may be a sensible strategy. Who will be here at 4.00 am?
I doubt I'll be online because I don't want to disturb Mr citizen's sleep. We'll see. He may stay up, we'll see.

I'm considering kipping on the sofa so as to maintain marital harmony.

I had thought there were only regional announcements, but it seems each area will do so? So I'll probably just stay up. Like you yahyah I'll be in a spare room

Post by **PaulfromYorkshire** » Thu 23 Jun, 2016 1:15 pm

Are there any by-elections today?

yahyah · Post by **yahyah** » Thu 23 Jun, 2016 1:15 pm

PorFavor wrote:
“I run a polling station and it is very noticeable how many voters today are bringing their own pens and even sharpies to register their vote rather than use the pencils provided in the booth. Worrying lack of trust in the counting system and I assume someone has put out some sort of rumour that votes made in pencil can be erased, which as you know is ridiculous. (Politics Live, Guardian)
We could have a new way of doing exit polls here. Support for "Out" being roughly measured by the number of imported writing implements.

That's that Kippers, they were on about it before the last election.

yahyah · Post by **yahyah** » Thu 23 Jun, 2016 1:18 pm

ohsocynical wrote:That's it. My vote in.

Had to laugh. Two women, mother and daughter, made a great fuss about extracting a pen from mother's handbag in order to vote.

Raised eyebrows and a couple of smirks all round.

Ooooh the conspiracy theorists are going to be out in force tomorrow.

Did you remind them to sign it and make a comment about what they think of the EUSSR

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Thu 23 Jun, 2016 1:19 pm

PaulfromYorkshire wrote:Are there any by-elections today?

One, in Windsor/Maidenhead.

It was claimed any by-elections today would have to have totally separate arrangements from the referendum, but not sure if this is actually happening.

mbc1955 · Post by **mbc1955** » Thu 23 Jun, 2016 1:20 pm

PaulfromYorkshire wrote:
mbc1955 wrote:Have now voted Remain. The Polling Station was quiet, one leaving as I arrived, one arriving as I left.

The next important decision today is how much to bid for that eBay item just before 8.30pm
Tousled blond wig, slightly soiled, no longer needed.

Nah, something useful and wanted.

And very very English as it happens.

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Thu 23 Jun, 2016 1:22 pm

North Wiltshire Tory MP James Gray (a passionate leave supporter) says if people vote to remain he will accept “the democratic will of the people”, but only if it is a “reasonable majority” suggestion around 60-40.

Are the Leave campaigners paving the way for the next wave of campaigning if they lose? (Politics Live, Guardian)

That's not very democratic, now, is it? Especially as I presume he was happy to accept the General Election result.

ohsocynical · Post by **ohsocynical** » Thu 23 Jun, 2016 1:22 pm

I wonder how the percentage of numbers voting is holding up? Reports that Polling stations are busy.

yahyah · Post by **yahyah** » Thu 23 Jun, 2016 1:24 pm

AnatolyKasparov wrote:In maybe their first significant polling intervention since last year's GE, Populus are saying 55-45 to stay in.

Fingers, legs, everything crossed they are right. We need a significant win.

TechnicalEphemera · Post by **TechnicalEphemera** » Thu 23 Jun, 2016 1:25 pm

AnatolyKasparov wrote:In maybe their first significant polling intervention since last year's GE, Populus are saying 55-45 to stay in.

That one is interesting because it is online. Has anybody worked out if the (I think 2 million) expats are polled. I believe they aren't (Gib is included), they will break very heavily remain.