Friday 24th June 2016

[howsillyofme1]

Corbyn's Islington: 75% Remain
Average Labour vote: 63%
Bradshaw's Exeter: 55% Remain
Coffey's Stockport: 52% Remain
Hodge's Barking and Dagenham: 38% Remain
Mann's Bassetlaw: 32% Remain

Clearly all Corbyn's fault.

Edited to add avg. Labour vote. Tell me again, who was it who failed to get the Labour message across to their supporters?

On the other hand, maybe they understand why Labour's message is failing because they're at the sharp end. Corbyn seems to be in a pretty safe Labour seat. Bradshaw had his work cut out holding on to Exeter. It's the only non-Tory constituency south west of Bristol. I can't just ignore that. We need people who can win these places in the Labour party. We need people who can win seats off the Tories. Otherwise what's the point?

And how do you do that when people are so damaged by austerity and are blaming immigration?

Do we pander to their anti-immigrant beliefs or try to point out that austerity is a policy of the Tories and of the Brexiteers? I think that latter one has been tried a lot but undermined by the actions of certain senior Labour politicians since 2010.

Do you think that these numbers would have changed massively with another leader....really?

Coffey and Hodge both voted for Iraq, both voted against an inquiry into Iraq,both for attacking Syria and both for the welfare bill

Please tell me how that would help?......not sure about Bradshaw but guess he was pretty much the same

[utopiandreams]

I'm too fucking angry to feel much hope in a fools' paradise. There's still the matter of an illegitimate government, Dave, that could be resolved before article 50 and current legislation rolled back. I gather you've spoken to Queenie today but wonder whether your mother would advise you do the honourable thing and make amends.

I'm still aghast that one that would be good at the job with an Oxford First in PPE has gotten us into this mess. Shame on you.

[citizenJA]

Goodnight, everyone.
I love you.
cJA

[ohsocynical]

Stephen Kinnock MP @SKinnock
Due to unforeseen circumstances I have had to withdraw from this year’s Swansea Half Marathon. Very best wishes to all running on Sunday!

I was a JSA claimant Retweeted Stephen Kinnock MP
Is that because you are planning to depose Jeremy Corbyn and need the weekend to organise a successor? #KeepCorbynI was a JSA claimant added,

[JonnyT1234]

Corbyn's Islington: 75% Remain
Average Labour vote: 63%
Bradshaw's Exeter: 55% Remain
Coffey's Stockport: 52% Remain
Hodge's Barking and Dagenham: 38% Remain
Mann's Bassetlaw: 32% Remain

Clearly all Corbyn's fault.

Edited to add avg. Labour vote. Tell me again, who was it who failed to get the Labour message across to their supporters?

On the other hand, maybe they understand why Labour's message is failing because they're at the sharp end. Corbyn seems to be in a pretty safe Labour seat. Bradshaw had his work cut out holding on to Exeter. It's the only non-Tory constituency south west of Bristol. I can't just ignore that. We need people who can win these places in the Labour party. We need people who can win seats off the Tories. Otherwise what's the point?

My point was more that Bradshaw etc can't absolve themselves of responsibility for the Leave vote when they've all underperformed in their areas. Is Labour just one man, Corbyn, or is it a party? If they believed Corbyn was underperforming, where the hell were they getting the message out loud and clear?

And we had Mandelson, Blair, Brown, Miliband, Darling, Harman, Campbell, etc doing their thing. Did it help or did it hinder?

[ohsocynical]

Michael Sylvain ‏@onebuttonmonkey 11h11 hours ago

The sole reason David Cameron isn't the worst Prime Minister in our history is he's about to be followed by the only person worse than him.

[daydreamer]

Goodnight, everyone.
I love you.
cJA

Goodnight

[NonOxCol]

Well, I've been re-watching The League of Gentlemen this year and have three episodes left, so tonight is probably the night I suppose.

" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[TobyLatimer]

When asked just now by Adam Boulton why Corbyn hasn't had much prescence on the campaign to remain, Ken Livingstone states live on Sky News, "the media were obsessed by Cameron and Johnson gnawing at each other's testicles

[ohsocynical]

In less than 24 hours. 97,667 Pretty good going eh? It's as much a protest against the Lab right stirrers as it is support for Corbyn. I hope the message gets through that people have had a gutful of wheeling dealing politicians.

[ohsocynical]

Well, I've been re-watching The League of Gentlemen this year and have three episodes left, so tonight is probably the night I suppose.

" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Early night for me with a soothing, bland whodunnit.

[daydreamer]

Night all,

Thanks for being here on what has proved to be another shit day in our nations history.

[ohsocynical]

Night all,

Thanks for being here on what has proved to be another shit day in our nations history.

It's been a pleasure to have you. Please come again

[ohsocynical]

I wonder what tomorrow will bring? Night all.....

[Willow904]

Corbyn's Islington: 75% Remain
Average Labour vote: 63%
Bradshaw's Exeter: 55% Remain
Coffey's Stockport: 52% Remain
Hodge's Barking and Dagenham: 38% Remain
Mann's Bassetlaw: 32% Remain

Clearly all Corbyn's fault.

Edited to add avg. Labour vote. Tell me again, who was it who failed to get the Labour message across to their supporters?

On the other hand, maybe they understand why Labour's message is failing because they're at the sharp end. Corbyn seems to be in a pretty safe Labour seat. Bradshaw had his work cut out holding on to Exeter. It's the only non-Tory constituency south west of Bristol. I can't just ignore that. We need people who can win these places in the Labour party. We need people who can win seats off the Tories. Otherwise what's the point?

My point was more that Bradshaw etc can't absolve themselves of responsibility for the Leave vote when they've all underperformed in their areas. Is Labour just one man, Corbyn, or is it a party? If they believed Corbyn was underperforming, where the hell were they getting the message out loud and clear?

And we had Mandelson, Blair, Brown, Miliband, Darling, Harman, Campbell, etc doing their thing. Did it help or did it hinder?

I'm just pointing out that much of London was pro-remain. It doesn't mean Corbyn did anything special or different than the others. I'm not particularly unhappy with Corbyn's referendum campaign, I just don't really get why everyone's so desperate to hang on to him. If there's a snap election, I'd be very doubtful of Labour's chances with him as leader. I'm trying to be patient, his attempts to reform the party could be positive, but what if we get an election sooner rather than later? I think we'd lose, because Corbyn hasn't said or done anything to reassure me that Labour have a vision for fixing this mess. I've seen evidence of both Sturgeon and Lucas talking to their members and voters, leading their parties in this time of crisis, but no sense of Corbyn being there for Labour supporters. He's just way too absent. There's not enough heartfelt leadership for me. I'll be happy to see him gone, whenever it may be, I'm afraid.

[TechnicalEphemera]

Corbyn's Islington: 75% Remain
Average Labour vote: 63%
Bradshaw's Exeter: 55% Remain
Coffey's Stockport: 52% Remain
Hodge's Barking and Dagenham: 38% Remain
Mann's Bassetlaw: 32% Remain

Clearly all Corbyn's fault.

Edited to add avg. Labour vote. Tell me again, who was it who failed to get the Labour message across to their supporters?

On the other hand, maybe they understand why Labour's message is failing because they're at the sharp end. Corbyn seems to be in a pretty safe Labour seat. Bradshaw had his work cut out holding on to Exeter. It's the only non-Tory constituency south west of Bristol. I can't just ignore that. We need people who can win these places in the Labour party. We need people who can win seats off the Tories. Otherwise what's the point?

My point was more that Bradshaw etc can't absolve themselves of responsibility for the Leave vote when they've all underperformed in their areas. Is Labour just one man, Corbyn, or is it a party? If they believed Corbyn was underperforming, where the hell were they getting the message out loud and clear?

And we had Mandelson, Blair, Brown, Miliband, Darling, Harman, Campbell, etc doing their thing. Did it help or did it hinder?

When a party can't reach out beyond a shrinking core you blame the leader, simply because it is always the leaders responsibility.

My feeling is that it was only when Watson and Brown got involved that Labour even looked like they were fighting. Until then it was shambolic, which is characteristic of the leaders campaign team.

All of which misses the key point, can Corbyn reach out to ex Tories and Brexiters and can he realistically compete with Boris?

Nobody here has credibly put forward any argument that he can.

Incidentally as I pointed out Boris will struggle to govern with his small majority, especially handling Brexit where the Tory block is massively split.

He will trigger an election against Corbyn at the first chance he gets, because he needs a bigger majority. If you look at the mechanisms of the fixed term act I believe if he no-confidences himself he can do it.

Basically Labour need a competitive leader before October.

[NonOxCol]

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... te-cartoon" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

He had them nailed from the very start.

[howsillyofme1]

On the other hand, maybe they understand why Labour's message is failing because they're at the sharp end. Corbyn seems to be in a pretty safe Labour seat. Bradshaw had his work cut out holding on to Exeter. It's the only non-Tory constituency south west of Bristol. I can't just ignore that. We need people who can win these places in the Labour party. We need people who can win seats off the Tories. Otherwise what's the point?

My point was more that Bradshaw etc can't absolve themselves of responsibility for the Leave vote when they've all underperformed in their areas. Is Labour just one man, Corbyn, or is it a party? If they believed Corbyn was underperforming, where the hell were they getting the message out loud and clear?

And we had Mandelson, Blair, Brown, Miliband, Darling, Harman, Campbell, etc doing their thing. Did it help or did it hinder?

When a party can't reach out beyond a shrinking core you blame the leader, simply because it is always the leaders responsibility.

My feeling is that it was only when Watson and Brown got involved that Labour even looked like they were fighting. Until then it was shambolic, which is characteristic of the leaders campaign team.

All of which misses the key point, can Corbyn reach out to ex Tories and Brexiters and can he realistically compete with Boris?

Nobody here has credibly put forward any argument that he can.

Incidentally as I pointed out Boris will struggle to govern with his small majority, especially handling Brexit where the Tory block is massively split.

He will trigger an election against Corbyn at the first chance he gets, because he needs a bigger majority. If you look at the mechanisms of the fixed term act I believe if he no-confidences himself he can do it.

Basically Labour need a competitive leader before October.

The information suggests 63% Labour voters voted remain...almost same as LD and significantly more than the Tories

He doesn't need to attract ex-Tories, he needs to get the vote out of non-voters and the young. Chasing Tories is what got us into this mess in the first place

What evidence, I mean electoral evidence, not opinion polls which are now surely massively discredited, do you have that he cannot reach out. labour had a pretty good electoral record on him despite a completely hostile press, attacks from the right wing of the party

If there was a credible candidate then tell me who it is and I will let you know if I would vote for him over Corbyn. If Starmer stood he would be interesting but I have seen no indication he wants that at the moment...and the rest of the likely candidates are a shower of losers!

Hodge voted for Syria, Iraq and the welfare bill - do you think her voting record is what should be aspired to by a Labour leader?

[TechnicalEphemera]

One point on the single market, Norway type deal. Boris is a pragmatist, faced with the City en-masse telling him unless they keep their access they are leaving, Boris will fold.

The city leaving would cripple our economy and tax intake, especially when combined with a manufacturing exodus.

It will piss off a load of Kippers - in seats that never vote Tory.

Not a hard calculation to make, once you are PM.

[NonOxCol]

" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

"As I've been saying for years, Dave a Lord North-bad PM - complacent, lazy, more short-term than a goldfish's memory. Dave's reputation will go down in History...and down and down and down and down and down and dow"

[howsillyofme1]

One point on the single market, Norway type deal. Boris is a pragmatist, faced with the City en-masse telling him unless they keep their access they are leaving, Boris will fold.

The city leaving would cripple our economy and tax intake, especially when combined with a manufacturing exodus.

It will piss off a load of Kippers - in seats that never vote Tory.

Not a hard calculation to make, once you are PM.

I love the optimism of people who think the UK can throw a big grenade into the EU and then can waltz up and ask for a deal which gives them access to the free market as before

Firstly it doesn't make him a pragmatist it makes him a gold-plated diamond encrusted twat and far more incompetent than your bête-noir Corbyn - to damage so badly the prospects of a country, engender hatred for absolutely fuck all!

Do you not think the matter of Schengen and the Euro may not come up at all?

[gilsey]

I've been to the hairdresser this afternoon, she says she's neutral on the EUref as is probably best for her, so I restricted myself to a rant about how unnecessary it was in the first place, and how, imo, however wonderful the long-term outcome, it wouldn't compensate for the short-term disruption. She thought it would soon settle down, I fear not.

We were agreed that banishment of Farage to the furthest possible destination would improve matters, she's no racist.

She said she thought Cameron had made a good speech this morning. When I'd picked my jaw off the floor, I said that's what he does, he makes speeches, it's just words. Unrelated what he actually does.

She also said the 'they're all the same' thing. No, they're really not.

[danesclose]

On the other hand, maybe they understand why Labour's message is failing because they're at the sharp end. Corbyn seems to be in a pretty safe Labour seat. Bradshaw had his work cut out holding on to Exeter. It's the only non-Tory constituency south west of Bristol. I can't just ignore that. We need people who can win these places in the Labour party. We need people who can win seats off the Tories. Otherwise what's the point?

My point was more that Bradshaw etc can't absolve themselves of responsibility for the Leave vote when they've all underperformed in their areas. Is Labour just one man, Corbyn, or is it a party? If they believed Corbyn was underperforming, where the hell were they getting the message out loud and clear?

And we had Mandelson, Blair, Brown, Miliband, Darling, Harman, Campbell, etc doing their thing. Did it help or did it hinder?

When a party can't reach out beyond a shrinking core you blame the leader, simply because it is always the leaders responsibility.

My feeling is that it was only when Watson and Brown got involved that Labour even looked like they were fighting. Until then it was shambolic, which is characteristic of the leaders campaign team.

All of which misses the key point, can Corbyn reach out to ex Tories and Brexiters and can he realistically compete with Boris?

Nobody here has credibly put forward any argument that he can.

Incidentally as I pointed out Boris will struggle to govern with his small majority, especially handling Brexit where the Tory block is massively split.

He will trigger an election against Corbyn at the first chance he gets, because he needs a bigger majority. If you look at the mechanisms of the fixed term act I believe if he no-confidences himself he can do it.

Basically Labour need a competitive leader before October.

For Labour to reach out to the ex-Tories & Brexiteers means disenfranchising their core vote. Are you suggesting they should do that with a "New New Labour" manifesto, because by your definition, these people are to the right of the mainstream of the Labour party.
What you are not mentioning is that Corbyn has tried to reach out to the party. It's not his fault that these people won't serve in the Shadow Cabinet, but rather would spend their time covertly & overtly undermining the democratically elected leader.

There are a lot of rumours that the Tories will have a concerted effort to prevent Johnson's leadership. Whilst the Tories are ripping themselves apart, surely it is the time for Labour to unite and fight for the people who need them, those suffering from the government's policies, and who are likely to suffer even more under the likely next government.
You say that Labour need a competitive leader, yet you don't have any suggestions as to who. Care to share who you think it should be?

Apologies for the rambling. In the spirits of European unity, I'm midway down the 2nd bottle of Burgundy, and am in the mood for more

[TechnicalEphemera]

My point was more that Bradshaw etc can't absolve themselves of responsibility for the Leave vote when they've all underperformed in their areas. Is Labour just one man, Corbyn, or is it a party? If they believed Corbyn was underperforming, where the hell were they getting the message out loud and clear?

And we had Mandelson, Blair, Brown, Miliband, Darling, Harman, Campbell, etc doing their thing. Did it help or did it hinder?

When a party can't reach out beyond a shrinking core you blame the leader, simply because it is always the leaders responsibility.

My feeling is that it was only when Watson and Brown got involved that Labour even looked like they were fighting. Until then it was shambolic, which is characteristic of the leaders campaign team.

All of which misses the key point, can Corbyn reach out to ex Tories and Brexiters and can he realistically compete with Boris?

Nobody here has credibly put forward any argument that he can.

Incidentally as I pointed out Boris will struggle to govern with his small majority, especially handling Brexit where the Tory block is massively split.

He will trigger an election against Corbyn at the first chance he gets, because he needs a bigger majority. If you look at the mechanisms of the fixed term act I believe if he no-confidences himself he can do it.

Basically Labour need a competitive leader before October.

The information suggests 63% Labour voters voted remain...almost same as LD and significantly more than the Tories

He doesn't need to attract ex-Tories, he needs to get the vote out of non-voters and the young. Chasing Tories is what got us into this mess in the first place

What evidence, I mean electoral evidence, not opinion polls which are now surely massively discredited, do you have that he cannot reach out. labour had a pretty good electoral record on him despite a completely hostile press, attacks from the right wing of the party

If there was a credible candidate then tell me who it is and I will let you know if I would vote for him over Corbyn. If Starmer stood he would be interesting but I have seen no indication he wants that at the moment...and the rest of the likely candidates are a shower of losers!

Hodge voted for Syria, Iraq and the welfare bill - do you think her voting record is what should be aspired to by a Labour leader?

It should be blindly obvious by now that your statement about not needing to attract Tories, just the young and non voters is incorrect.

This is based not on opinion polls but actual polls. Corbyn does well with the young, but they aren't growing Labour vote share and the non voters are Kippers. Just look what happens in high turnout "Labour" areas.

You also need to consider the opportunities offered by pissed off soft Tories and ex Lib Dems who crave a steady hand and while happy with Cameron won't support a government of Brexeteers. The imperative is to find a way of stopping Boris gaining unrestrained power.

Starmer would stand I think if asked. Nobody, including Hodge, is suggesting she stand herself.

Her voting record on foreign wars is more defensible than Corbyn's - Iraq being the obvious mistake on her part.

[Rebecca]

My point was more that Bradshaw etc can't absolve themselves of responsibility for the Leave vote when they've all underperformed in their areas. Is Labour just one man, Corbyn, or is it a party? If they believed Corbyn was underperforming, where the hell were they getting the message out loud and clear?

And we had Mandelson, Blair, Brown, Miliband, Darling, Harman, Campbell, etc doing their thing. Did it help or did it hinder?

When a party can't reach out beyond a shrinking core you blame the leader, simply because it is always the leaders responsibility.

My feeling is that it was only when Watson and Brown got involved that Labour even looked like they were fighting. Until then it was shambolic, which is characteristic of the leaders campaign team.

All of which misses the key point, can Corbyn reach out to ex Tories and Brexiters and can he realistically compete with Boris?

Nobody here has credibly put forward any argument that he can.

Incidentally as I pointed out Boris will struggle to govern with his small majority, especially handling Brexit where the Tory block is massively split.

He will trigger an election against Corbyn at the first chance he gets, because he needs a bigger majority. If you look at the mechanisms of the fixed term act I believe if he no-confidences himself he can do it.

Basically Labour need a competitive leader before October.

For Labour to reach out to the ex-Tories & Brexiteers means disenfranchising their core vote. Are you suggesting they should do that with a "New New Labour" manifesto, because by your definition, these people are to the right of the mainstream of the Labour party.
What you are not mentioning is that Corbyn has tried to reach out to the party. It's not his fault that these people won't serve in the Shadow Cabinet, but rather would spend their time covertly & overtly undermining the democratically elected leader.

There are a lot of rumours that the Tories will have a concerted effort to prevent Johnson's leadership. Whilst the Tories are ripping themselves apart, surely it is the time for Labour to unite and fight for the people who need them, those suffering from the government's policies, and who are likely to suffer even more under the likely next government.
You say that Labour need a competitive leader, yet you don't have any suggestions as to who. Care to share who you think it should be?

Apologies for the rambling. In the spirits of European unity, I'm midway down the 2nd bottle of Burgundy, and am in the mood for more

Blimey,well done!I'm on my third glass of Lidl cabernet,but that's enough for me.

[NonOxCol]

Did we do this one?

" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[gilsey]

How could you look at eg. Jo Cox and Boris Johnson and say 'they're all the same'?

[howsillyofme1]

When a party can't reach out beyond a shrinking core you blame the leader, simply because it is always the leaders responsibility.

My feeling is that it was only when Watson and Brown got involved that Labour even looked like they were fighting. Until then it was shambolic, which is characteristic of the leaders campaign team.

All of which misses the key point, can Corbyn reach out to ex Tories and Brexiters and can he realistically compete with Boris?

Nobody here has credibly put forward any argument that he can.

Incidentally as I pointed out Boris will struggle to govern with his small majority, especially handling Brexit where the Tory block is massively split.

He will trigger an election against Corbyn at the first chance he gets, because he needs a bigger majority. If you look at the mechanisms of the fixed term act I believe if he no-confidences himself he can do it.

Basically Labour need a competitive leader before October.

The information suggests 63% Labour voters voted remain...almost same as LD and significantly more than the Tories

He doesn't need to attract ex-Tories, he needs to get the vote out of non-voters and the young. Chasing Tories is what got us into this mess in the first place

What evidence, I mean electoral evidence, not opinion polls which are now surely massively discredited, do you have that he cannot reach out. labour had a pretty good electoral record on him despite a completely hostile press, attacks from the right wing of the party

If there was a credible candidate then tell me who it is and I will let you know if I would vote for him over Corbyn. If Starmer stood he would be interesting but I have seen no indication he wants that at the moment...and the rest of the likely candidates are a shower of losers!

Hodge voted for Syria, Iraq and the welfare bill - do you think her voting record is what should be aspired to by a Labour leader?

It should be blindly obvious by now that your statement about not needing to attract Tories, just the young and non voters is incorrect.

This is based not on opinion polls but actual polls. Corbyn does well with the young, but they aren't growing Labour vote share and the non voters are Kippers. Just look what happens in high turnout "Labour" areas.

You also need to consider the opportunities offered by pissed off soft Tories and ex Lib Dems who crave a steady hand and while happy with Cameron won't support a government of Brexeteers. The imperative is to find a way of stopping Boris gaining unrestrained power.

Starmer would stand I think if asked. Nobody, including Hodge, is suggesting she stand herself.

Her voting record on foreign wars is more defensible than Corbyn's - Iraq being the obvious mistake on her part.

Anyone who was happy with Cameron is someone who will take Labour in a direction that they should not be going in.....he has been one of the most right-wing PM (in actions not his words) and has probably managed to destroy the UK

Miliband was the type of person you were talking about and it did not help him either did it?

You make an assertion about Starmer - you know him personally do you? If he stands then he may be an option but as far as I can tell the noises are being made the same old contemptible lot as before

[TechnicalEphemera]

Danesclose above - sorry lost the will on nesting.

I am not sure New New Labour is what is needed. A calm hand, authority and an inclusive approach yes; but the policies would be much more interventionist than New Labour. They have to be because of the need to take firm action to fix a (by then) very screwed up economy.

I would also suggest not to confuse Labour members with their core vote. Labour members are far to the left of most Labour voters. I think a more muscular Milibandism shorn of the Ed Balls leash would be about right.

[TechnicalEphemera]

Above.

Labour has to find a way to win back reluctant Cameron voters. Otherwise no election will ever be winnable. The upside here is Boris will push them to Labour it just has to catch them.

If you want an unelectable very left wing party TUSC is available.

[howsillyofme1]

Above.

Labour has to find a way to win back reluctant Cameron voters. Otherwise no election will ever be winnable. The upside here is Boris will push them to Labour it just has to catch them.

If you want an unelectable very left wing party TUSC is available.

There is nothing very left wing about the Labour Party really is there?

The problems that caused the voters to vote for Brexit, austerity, lack of job security, lack of social mobility, unavailability of public services etc are not going to be answered by a PLP that supported further welfare cuts, wants to waste billions on trident and believes that privatisation is the answer to public service issues are they?

The only solutions I could accept will come from what would have been considered soft left in the past - the policies of a Jenkins and a Wilson. More social housing, fairer tax, investment in public services, fairer voting, internationalism etc.

You seem to want to go back to failed policies that have failed to resolve the problems in society and have led to swathes of the disempowered voting for completely the wrong solution

None of this is Corbyn's fault and is the fault of people who think that the PLP is the mainstream and the answer to their problems.

The way you are going you will force me away from the party as well, but never mind I am just a thick far-lefty. Much better to go after those type of people who are 'happy with Cameron' - I tell you I know of no-one I have any respect for who is 'happy with Cameron' - those who are, are selfish self-centred ignorami

35% of people don't vote......that is the indictment of the UK democracy

Woe betide anyone tries anything differently

[TR'sGhost]

One point on the single market, Norway type deal. Boris is a pragmatist, faced with the City en-masse telling him unless they keep their access they are leaving, Boris will fold.

The city leaving would cripple our economy and tax intake, especially when combined with a manufacturing exodus.

It will piss off a load of Kippers - in seats that never vote Tory.

Not a hard calculation to make, once you are PM.

The City isn't sitting in isolation, there are other players involved.

It seems likely to me that the rest of the EU has been considering what a UK exit might mean and how to address it for some time. The antics of Thatcher, Major's bastards, Cameron, Johnsons, Farrage and most of the British media are unlikely to have endeared the UK as a political entity to its "partners". Oddly perhaps, they do seem to find the input of sensible people from the UK quite welcome when it comes to the day-to-day stuff, but we last had a sensible leader in April 2010.

Right now there are senior politicians across Europe saying if the UK wants to go then it should be told to **** off as brutally and rapidly as possible via an accelerated process if the lawyers can come up with one. There is somewhere between very little and no indication that the rest of the EU are inclined to give the UK free access to anything much. And it won't look very good if HMG ends up having to go to the European Court to argue our expedited exit is illegal under EU treaty law and demanding to be allowed to stay in the EU for a while longer until it suits the UK to make the final break.

Paris or Berlin could do very nicely thank you out of the City or a big chunk of it moving to either or both of them. Traders in Euro-based assets are very unlikely to want to stay in London if they can get better, cheaper access elsewhere and Sterling isn't what it was this time yesterday.

And as yet we have no idea whether Boris "in, no, out, no, in, no, out....errm... buller buller buller anyone, what?" Johnson will end up as Tory leader. If he's any sense he'll avoid the job because it's going to be a nightmare and whoever gets to try to do it is probably going to end up damaged beyond repair just like Dave. Few opportunities for flamboyantly quiffed brilliance on offer there.

[danesclose]

For a bit of light relief. Give that cameraman a knighthood!

2016-06-24_220313.jpg (37.67 KiB) Viewed 6593 times

[PaulfromYorkshire]

Brexit – the Long View

Like all of us I’ve been reflecting a great deal today.

For all the talk of Boris this, Nigel that, Jeremy the other, it’s my view that David Cameron had this coming from day 1. He very nearly averted the disaster, but ultimately his fate caught up with him.

What do I mean? Well, and this is probably still captured in some of my early CiF ramblings, Dave was fatally flawed from the very start.

Go back in time to the leadership election that Dave didn’t win (well not on FPTP anyway). How did he win? A key plank of his appeal to the Tory faithful was a pledge to withdraw the Tories from the centre right coalition in the EU Parliament and align instead with a ragtag bunch of pretty far right parties instead.

Once elected Tory leader, true to his word (for once) he realised his pledge. In this one act, in my view, he reduced his influence in the EU to approximately zero. The die was cast and the rest is history.

That signature Dave PR move to attract the vote of Eurosceptic Tories to secure the leadership has haunted him ever since. His traction in Brussels has always been limited and ultimately when he sought his “deal” for the Referendum, he had no allies.

And now we have Brexit. Dave’s cupboard was bare. Who can even remember the concessions he secured from his protracted negotiations? What was the “emergency brake” in the end?

No, Flashman lost and dragged us all with him. He knew, I knew, folk on CiF knew that his compromise with the Eurosceptic devil was hugely dangerous.

And here we are.

[NonOxCol]

You can still find gold BTL at the Guardian:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... t-77167687" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[TR'sGhost]

On the other hand, maybe they understand why Labour's message is failing because they're at the sharp end. Corbyn seems to be in a pretty safe Labour seat. Bradshaw had his work cut out holding on to Exeter. It's the only non-Tory constituency south west of Bristol. I can't just ignore that. We need people who can win these places in the Labour party. We need people who can win seats off the Tories. Otherwise what's the point?

My point was more that Bradshaw etc can't absolve themselves of responsibility for the Leave vote when they've all underperformed in their areas. Is Labour just one man, Corbyn, or is it a party? If they believed Corbyn was underperforming, where the hell were they getting the message out loud and clear?

And we had Mandelson, Blair, Brown, Miliband, Darling, Harman, Campbell, etc doing their thing. Did it help or did it hinder?

I'm just pointing out that much of London was pro-remain. It doesn't mean Corbyn did anything special or different than the others. I'm not particularly unhappy with Corbyn's referendum campaign, I just don't really get why everyone's so desperate to hang on to him. If there's a snap election, I'd be very doubtful of Labour's chances with him as leader. I'm trying to be patient, his attempts to reform the party could be positive, but what if we get an election sooner rather than later? I think we'd lose, because Corbyn hasn't said or done anything to reassure me that Labour have a vision for fixing this mess. I've seen evidence of both Sturgeon and Lucas talking to their members and voters, leading their parties in this time of crisis, but no sense of Corbyn being there for Labour supporters. He's just way too absent. There's not enough heartfelt leadership for me. I'll be happy to see him gone, whenever it may be, I'm afraid.

If there's a snap election it probably won't matter who the Labour leader is. Odds on we get a Tory/UKIP coalition led by God knows who riding the Brexit "FREEDOM!" wave and huge Labour losses. I can sketch out one way to spin for that result if you like.

Labour, the losers of the referendum who want to take away the people's victory.
Labour, the lefty control freaks who want to stop you saying what you think.
Labour, the party of dinosaurs, who hate a free people.
Labour, the party that supports the SNP, SF and immigration, who given a chance will sabotage the democratic decision of the British people.
Labour, the party for layabed scroungers, not the hard working families we need to build our greatness again.
Labour, the party of untried, inexperienced children in a grown-up world and hard-bitten cynical Blairites who backstab their own leaders.
Tax cuts, get your lovely tax cuts here!

British politics have become infinitely nastier over the last couple of months and they were already pretty nasty. There is no business as usual any more. The divisions are deep, bitter and very likely to get more so.

[NonOxCol]

I realised today that I've been on the winning side in elections/referenda just once since 2005 (a local council this May, where the Tory candidate was an 18-year-old woman).

[AngryAsWell]

Hello all
Not been around for a while but thought I'd pop in and say that as Cameron has resigned (and went to see the queen to confirm it so its official) and is just staying there to keep an eye on things till October or there about, and we don't have a deputy PM, who has the authority to sign and send the A50 needed to set off the negotiations?
Just a thought.
Hope all health problems are on the mend.

Oh & I got heckled today for being "an old bat, taking us out of EU" I didn't hang around but felt very uncomfortable - 3 year 11 teenagers were a bit intimidating, even though I've watch them grow up. Old v. Young divide and rule well underway

[PaulfromYorkshire]

Nice to see you here AAW

[AnatolyKasparov]

Re the above comment - I sadly expect prejudice against older people to become more prevalent after this week. Along with much else, of course.

[StephenDolan]

Labour cannot descend into infighting at this critical moment

http://gu.com/p/4my79" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;


This, this this!

[PaulfromYorkshire]

Labour cannot descend into infighting at this critical moment

http://gu.com/p/4my79" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;


This, this this!

I would dearly love Corbyn to pass the leadership somehow to McDonnell

[howsillyofme1]

Nice to see you here AAW

seconded....missed a lot

[utopiandreams]

Dry your eyes, Samantha, at least they've stopped talking of pigs.

[NonOxCol]

Anyway, if this isn't the worst speech and these aren't the worst quotes of 20-bloodyawful-16, then we really will have invited the apocalypse in for tea.

"Dare to dream that the dawn is breaking on an independent United Kingdom. This, if the predictions now are right, this will be a victory for real people, a victory for ordinary people, a victory for decent people. We have fought against the multinationals, we have fought against the big merchant banks, we have fought against big politics, we have fought against lies, corruption and deceit. And today honesty, decency and belief in nation, I think now is going to win. And we will have done it without having to fight, without a single bullet being fired, we'd have done it by damned hard work on the ground. And we'll have done it not just for ourselves, we'll have done it for the whole of Europe. I hope this victory brings down this failed project and leads us to a Europe of sovereign nation states, trading together, being friends together, cooperating together, and let's get rid of the flag, the anthem, Brussels, and all that has gone wrong. Let June 23 go down in our history as our independence day."

And that's me done for the day. Thanks, goodnight, and to Brendan, Cuillin and Lejla Cox, well.... truly sorry.

[Temulkar]

Whatever the blairites want, corbyn is going nowhere. They would have to persuade him to not stand, and that isnt going to happen. Look at twitter, look at the petition. If they force a leadership election he just gets re-elected by the members.

Corbyn commected with labour voters as well as farron and sturgeon wiith lib dems and SNP - this is a manufactured crisis and coup attempt, nothing more, and it will end badly for the 'moderates'. The people who have failed to understand the british electorate are the very people driving the coup now, and it just shows how disconnected they are from their voters.

About this nov last year I predicted Brexit, An enviromental disaster, a trump presidency and corbyn for pm.

We're two down, Trump is the republican candidate and it's looking like a general electioin this year with our very own churchillian Boris in pole positon.

The thing that I have been thinking about a lot with Boris, is that in 1945, despite winning the war and being up against the dull schoolmasterly Atlee, the British voted Labour in a shock landslide.

This is a turning point in history, but its got some time to play out yet. I jokingly pointed out that the UK has not been this divided for 350 years on twitter, but actually that's true. All the old political certainties are out of the window and after Jo Cox's murder last week so is the passivity of british democracy.

Did anyone see that NSPCC video of a kid fleeing civil war in the UK to highligght the pllight of Syrian refugees? Makes you think doesn't it.

[howsillyofme1]

Hi Tem,

Just started reading your book - very good so far....chapeau to the writer

[Temulkar]

Hi Tem,

Just started reading your book - very good so far....chapeau to the writer

Ooh cheers, I hope you enjoy it - Amazon reviews are very welcome, even if you didnt!

It's frightening how much they control book sales with their algorithm

[thatchersorphan]

https://constitution-unit.com/2016/06/2 ... 2%80%afeu/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; The road to Brexit: 16 things you need to know about the process of leaving the EU

[Hobiejoe]

Evenin' night owls, and particularly the shade of LadyC.

Had my mind taken off the horrors of the last 24 hours by an evening of, somewhat appropriately, some awesome Delta blues in the pub by a guy from southern Georgia by the name of Kent Duchaine and Leadbessie, his 1934 steel guitar. I have to try and avoid saying he's from South Georgia, because that's a very different kettle of penguins.

I'm constantly amazed by the quality of musicians touring little venues in out of the way places like ourselves, but he loves it, touring the UK twice a year for five weeks at a time, living out a hire car (don't tell Avis) and covering 5000 miles criss-crossing the country in that time. He left us at midnight to drive up to Oxford. And a really, really nice bloke.

Didn't manage to film him, and not much on youtube etc, although this is a pretty good video. Loves and lives the blues, and a very much a bloke for Robert Johnson - he talks and plays his way through Johnson's scurrilous life and murder at the age of twenty seven. Brilliant night.

[youtube]5UvEWGPeRU8[/youtube]