Eric_WLothian wrote:howsillyofme1 wrote:
...As I stated yesterday the 2 year timetable for Exit is very short and that there is little chance of having all things agreed, especially trade by then. There may be a need for an extension and us unnecessary time now will come back and bite us if we have to ask for an extension - unanimity required...
From the Indy:
Even after the issue of the triggering of Article 50 is resolved, the British government must then decide its negotiating position, and decide what sort of relationship they want with the EU in the future. Would they still want access to the single market? What status would they want for the EU citizens currently employed in Britain, and Britons working elsewhere in Europe? What sort of trade deals would they wish to pursue? These proposals would then be put to the other 27 EU member states.
It is a process which European Council President Donald Tusk has warned could take up to seven years, and it is likely to be a bitter fight.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/po ... 00436.html
So it appears there's a good chance of an election somewhere in the middle of negotiations
If, and it a big if on the current state of affairs, the best guess timetable (according to the Vivil Service briefing) would be
2017 A50 and start of Exit negotiation
2019 Exit negotiations complete and start of trade negotiations
2022 EU/UK Trade deal complete (difficult to judge but the more we try to get away from the standard Single Market model the longer)
2027 Global trade deals complete
Looks like 2 elections will be held in this timetable
The EU Commissioner for Trade stated clearly that the EU is forbidden to discuss trade deals with its own members and individual members cannot discuss trade deals with other countries. This would in essence mean us moving to WTO in 2019 but I have a feeling it will not be as clear cut as that....clearly the more we try to get off them the more likely it is there will be the risk of no deal
There is also the fact the EU will develop and evolve over time....I would not be surprised to see a tweaking of free movement of people but that will take time to negotiate and we will not be party to that
This is a little bit conjecture as A50 has never been used before but the information seems to be pretty consistent (although totally ignored by the media.....no-one has asked this or pointed it out to the Leave spokesmen) and so there is no reason to doubt it being about right
Whichever way you look at it there is a shambles in the making...and Leadsom, Gove, May, Duncan-Smith, Letwin and the rest of those incompetent buffoons don't fill one full of confidence