No fewer than a dozen local council byelections last week, and quite eventful overall:
Weymouth and Portland DC - Tory hold with over 60% of the vote, almost unchanged since May this year. This has always been a Tory ward since it elected two councillors for them in the 2004 all-out elections, it was fairly marginal then but has (unlike other areas locally) become much safer for them in recent years (the interesting exception being 2014, when the Greens got quite close in a straight fight) The LibDems last stood here in a previous 2004 by-election, but this time came an albeit distant second - at the expense of Labour who dropped some 10 points since May. Greens last with just under 10% - a far cry from two years ago.
Medway - Tory gain (on a relatively modest 38%, this was a classic 3 way contest) from UKIP, confirming the latters decline not just nationally but locally; this is part of the Rochester/Strood seat that returned only one of two elected UKIP MPs at the 2014 by-election, before the Tories won it back last year. Though on that same day, UKIP managed to beat the Tories in this division by 2 councillors to 1 - prior to that it had split 2Tory/1Lab in both 2011 and 2003 (2007 is the only year a full slate got elected here, 3 Tories) A double figure drop for UKIP meant they dropped not just behind the Tories but Labour (both increased modestly since last year) Other candidates very much also rans - LibDems 4th, Greens 5th and finally the English Democrats (just 1%)
Bracknell Forest - Tory hold, beating Labour in a straight fight with nearly 70% in what has always been a safe ward for them ever since it elected two Tories back in 2003; in fact that was the only election here that was vaguely competitive as a LibDem ran them reasonably close. Though it is mildly interesting that their absence here this time seems to have benefited Labour rather more than the Tories; the former got a double figure increase to make it a modest swing since last year and a slightly bigger one since 2011.
St Albans DC - LibDem hold in a ward that has voted for them every election this millennium; Tories were reasonably close in the coalition years, but the LibDems won easily earlier this year with just over half the vote and advanced on that by another six points now (the swing since GE day last year was over 13 per cent) Tories upped their own vote slightly since May, but are a distant second now. Labour and Greens both down since then to the LibDems benefit, and whilst this is not UKIP territory (they polled poorly here even in their annus mirabilis of 2014, their only previous showing) just 1% and 16 votes in total has to be a bit of an embarrassment.
Braintree DC - two contests here; the first was a straightforward Tory hold of what has always been a very safe ward which voted for them by over 60% in the first post-boundary change election last year, and they upped that to almost 65% now despite increased competition. UKIP came a distant second then and were even more distant now as they dropped by 4 per cent. Labour dropped by 10 points, partly no doubt due to the entrance of both LibDems and Greens (with 4% in last place) The other vacancy, however, was rather different - Labour took it from the Tories with a 7% swing overall in a tight three way contest (this was a Labour leaning area before last year, but the aforementioned changes made it rather less favourable for them) with the Greens, who won an Essex CC seat here in 2013 and managed a modest increase to a quarter of the vote now despite the lively Lab-Tory battle. LibDems last with 3%, more than halved since GE day.
King's Lynn and West Norfolk DC - Independent gain from Tory, something of a surprise given that Tories beat Labour here in straight fights by about 70/30 both last year and in 2011. Though maybe not such a surprise if you go back a bit - Independents won both seats in 2003 before losing one to the Tories in a previous 2004 by-election and the other in 2007, after which they absented the field until now. The winner's score of 38% almost matched the Tory decline since GE day - after that the other candidates all bunched in the 7-8% range; LibDems and UKIP tied for 3rd-4th, just behind them another Indy and just behind them Labour (themselves a full 24 points down)
Kettering DC - Tory gain from Labour, giving them all three seats in this ward for the first time since the 2007 elections as the outgoing Labour member managed to win a seat for them in both 2011 and 2015 (which was a countermanded election, held in June 2015 after the death of the putative UKIP candidate during the campaign) In both 2005 and 2009 the then identical Northants CC division also elected a Tory, which maybe shows they have a natural edge here - but Labour will still be dismayed that a pro-Tory swing since last year of around 5% gave them a comfortable victory with approaching half the vote. UKIP down by 11 points (continuing their decline since they came close in the redrawn CC division, still covering mostly this area, in 2013) whilst Greens were little changed on 5%, just ahead of the LibDems.
Neath/Port Talbot - Plaid Cymru gain from Labour with a swing of over 14%, until now this ward has been a straight Labour/Plaid fight ever since this council was set up in 1995 - even during Labour's annus mirabilis then PC were close, and that was a sign of things to come as Plaid won in 1999 and (decisively) in 2004. However, Labour then (somewhat against the trend) won it back in 2008 and slightly increased their grip in 2012. For the first time other candidates stood here, and Labour came off much worse - PC modestly increased to nearly half the vote but Labour cratered a full 25 points. Independents came third, followed by UKIP with 8% and last and in this case very much least the hapless Tory candidate with a massive *4* (FOUR) votes overall - Theresa May's popular appeal has evidently yet to reach these parts
Conwy - Independent gain from Labour, "sealing the deal" after they narrowly fell short of achieving that feat in a previous 2014 by-election here (the winner then was kicked off for non-attendance, never a promising start to an electoral defence) On that occasion, Labour had won with just a quarter of the vote - their share barely changed since then but they dropped from first to third as the Independents (aided perhaps by the absence of a UKIP candidate this time after they had come a good third two years ago) marshalled their resources more effectively. Though the Independent runner up then also had to be content with that spot now despite upping their personal vote by 5 points, as the winner finished narrowly ahead of them on a still fairly modest 31%. Tories (who won this seat from Labour in 2008 before losing it four years later) last with 16%, up on 2014 but down on 2012.
East Riding of Yorkshire - LibDem gain from Tory, with 40% of the vote and a swing of some 16% since last year. This ward has a varied electoral history, electing 2Indy/1LibDems in 2003 before splitting three ways in 2007 when the Tories took one of the Independent seats. The Tories then took all three seats in 2011 (only just beating the Indie) before consolidating their grip on GE day, though still with a rather low share overall. Then the LibDems came 4th (and only just) but an increase of fully 28 points catapulted them into pole position. Labour thus moved down to third overall, though they actually held their own vote steady - fourth place was taken by the localist Beverley Party who dropped slightly; they seem to have taken some of the previous Independent support as a generic Indy took less than 4% this time (clearly down on GE day) Though that was still enough to beat last placed UKIP, who came 3rd last year but dropped 12 points to 6th and last now.
Middlesbrough - Labour hold with over 70% of the vote, a 22 point increase from the almost precisely half they managed last year (which was the first election here since boundary changes) Whilst this area and its predecessor wards have always voted Labour, Independents have sat times polled decently here, and indeed managed a respectable 30% or so on GE day. That was roughly halved now, however, and the only other party to stand a year ago - UKIP - did not bother this time. Tories and LibDems did, but to modest impact, getting 7% and 5% respectively.
It finally quietens down a bit this week, with three contests.
