Tuesday 15th November 2016

[HindleA]

https://www.ifs.org.uk/publications/8730" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;


The fall in sterling: who is hit by the rise in inflation?

IFS

[Willow904]

Re the above discussion - yes, Sanders might not have won (one possible factor not mentioned is his age - at 75 even older than Clinton/Trump)

But this does not take away from HRC being a deeply flawed candidate whose campaign exacerbated her shortcomings rather than easing them.

And some of the stuff coming out now about the strategic missteps of her team is genuinely eye-popping.

Ultimately, it comes back to the vast and unjustified sense of entitlement a certain type of "liberal centrist" possesses both in the US and elsewhere (very much including here)

What if the "unjustified sense of entitlement a certain type of 'liberal centrist' possesses" isn't a significant factor for the majority of people who voted for Brexit or Trump, though? I can't help thinking the average Trump voter would struggle to understand what that means, let alone have it as a main concern when casting their vote. Obama's second term was disappointing as he became more and more hemmed in and restricted. How much were voters driven by the usual inclination to give the other guys a go? All the questions and factors discussed above are important for the left to explore and consider. Especially given the natural conclusion of the "outsider" argument is government forever dominated by inexperienced, unknowledgeable, incompetent amateurs who don't have a clue what they're doing. The mess Cameron made ("what a lightweight!"), and the mess Trump is likely to make, is part of what makes me uneasy about supporting a backbencher who hasn't even taken a bill through parliament, let alone run a department, to become PM.

[ScarletGas]

So Farage has just told Sky News that " we are run by people that have never worked in the real world"

This from a product of Dulwich College and Commodity trading.

Tells me a whole lot about his total lack of self awareness that he believes that his privileged background is the real world

[JonnyT1234]

Good job the US has just picked Donald 'from the real world of a multi-billionaire family' Trump to run the country. Because I was getting a bit worried there.

[PorFavor]

So Farage has just told Sky News that " we are run by people that have never worked in the real world"

This from a product of Dulwich College and Commodity trading.

Tells me a whole lot about his total lack of self awareness that he believes that his privileged background is the real world

I was struck by Nigel Farage's criticism of the insults levelled at Donald Trump by some British politicians. Not very professional, he implied. What a short memory he has when he chooses to. His insulting remarks to fellow MEPs (in their presence) spring to mind.

Of course, no mainstream media outlet reminded him.

[citizenJA]

Good-afternoon, everyone.

[HindleA]

‘Reforming’ ESA: the final frontier and the last moral boundary


https://kittysjones.wordpress.com/2016/ ... -boundary/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[AnatolyKasparov]

Re the above discussion - yes, Sanders might not have won (one possible factor not mentioned is his age - at 75 even older than Clinton/Trump)

But this does not take away from HRC being a deeply flawed candidate whose campaign exacerbated her shortcomings rather than easing them.

And some of the stuff coming out now about the strategic missteps of her team is genuinely eye-popping.

Ultimately, it comes back to the vast and unjustified sense of entitlement a certain type of "liberal centrist" possesses both in the US and elsewhere (very much including here)

What if the "unjustified sense of entitlement a certain type of 'liberal centrist' possesses" isn't a significant factor for the majority of people who voted for Brexit or Trump, though? I can't help thinking the average Trump voter would struggle to understand what that means, let alone have it as a main concern when casting their vote. Obama's second term was disappointing as he became more and more hemmed in and restricted. How much were voters driven by the usual inclination to give the other guys a go? All the questions and factors discussed above are important for the left to explore and consider. Especially given the natural conclusion of the "outsider" argument is government forever dominated by inexperienced, unknowledgeable, incompetent amateurs who don't have a clue what they're doing. The mess Cameron made ("what a lightweight!"), and the mess Trump is likely to make, is part of what makes me uneasy about supporting a backbencher who hasn't even taken a bill through parliament, let alone run a department, to become PM.

I would say it is something a lot of people feel even if they can't articulate it as such.

More importantly though, it is a major factor in why politicians of this type have made such bad - and tone-deaf - decisions in recent years.

It explains why HRC ignored well-placed warnings (including, reportedly, from her husband) that her "firewall" was in danger due to flagging support in the "rust belt". Not to mention so many of the tactical misjudgements of Labour "moderates" in the last 18 months.

[StephenDolan]

Re the above discussion - yes, Sanders might not have won (one possible factor not mentioned is his age - at 75 even older than Clinton/Trump)

But this does not take away from HRC being a deeply flawed candidate whose campaign exacerbated her shortcomings rather than easing them.

And some of the stuff coming out now about the strategic missteps of her team is genuinely eye-popping.

Ultimately, it comes back to the vast and unjustified sense of entitlement a certain type of "liberal centrist" possesses both in the US and elsewhere (very much including here)

What if the "unjustified sense of entitlement a certain type of 'liberal centrist' possesses" isn't a significant factor for the majority of people who voted for Brexit or Trump, though? I can't help thinking the average Trump voter would struggle to understand what that means, let alone have it as a main concern when casting their vote. Obama's second term was disappointing as he became more and more hemmed in and restricted. How much were voters driven by the usual inclination to give the other guys a go? All the questions and factors discussed above are important for the left to explore and consider. Especially given the natural conclusion of the "outsider" argument is government forever dominated by inexperienced, unknowledgeable, incompetent amateurs who don't have a clue what they're doing. The mess Cameron made ("what a lightweight!"), and the mess Trump is likely to make, is part of what makes me uneasy about supporting a backbencher who hasn't even taken a bill through parliament, let alone run a department, to become PM.

I would say it is something a lot of people feel even if they can't articulate it as such.

More importantly though, it is a major factor in why politicians of this type have made such bad - and tone-deaf - decisions in recent years.

It explains why HRC ignored well-placed warnings (including, reportedly, from her husband) that her "firewall" was in danger due to flagging support in the "rust belt". Not to mention so many of the tactical misjudgements of Labour "moderates" in the last 18 months.

Indeed. Here's a thought. Campaign in Michigan!

[HindleA]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37981840" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;


HS2: North West and Yorkshire routes confirmed


Contains a misprint the correct name of the shopping centre is Meadowhell.

[HindleA]

High court orders prison officers back to work

[PorFavor]

High Court orders halt to prison protests

The High Court has ordered prison officers to end a 24-hour protest and go back to work following legal action brought by the government.

Up to 10,000 prison officers in England and Wales have stopped work over claims of a "surge in violence" in jails.

It is illegal for the profession to strike, but the Prison Officers Association says "protest action" was needed to keep staff and inmates safe. (BBC News website)

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-37984479

[Willow904]

What if the "unjustified sense of entitlement a certain type of 'liberal centrist' possesses" isn't a significant factor for the majority of people who voted for Brexit or Trump, though? I can't help thinking the average Trump voter would struggle to understand what that means, let alone have it as a main concern when casting their vote. Obama's second term was disappointing as he became more and more hemmed in and restricted. How much were voters driven by the usual inclination to give the other guys a go? All the questions and factors discussed above are important for the left to explore and consider. Especially given the natural conclusion of the "outsider" argument is government forever dominated by inexperienced, unknowledgeable, incompetent amateurs who don't have a clue what they're doing. The mess Cameron made ("what a lightweight!"), and the mess Trump is likely to make, is part of what makes me uneasy about supporting a backbencher who hasn't even taken a bill through parliament, let alone run a department, to become PM.

I would say it is something a lot of people feel even if they can't articulate it as such.

More importantly though, it is a major factor in why politicians of this type have made such bad - and tone-deaf - decisions in recent years.

It explains why HRC ignored well-placed warnings (including, reportedly, from her husband) that her "firewall" was in danger due to flagging support in the "rust belt". Not to mention so many of the tactical misjudgements of Labour "moderates" in the last 18 months.

Indeed. Here's a thought. Campaign in Michigan!

I feel compelled to point out that Hillary hasn't actually lost Michigan yet, although it does look likely

[PorFavor]

@HindleA

Snap!

[adam]

I feel compelled to point out that Hillary hasn't actually lost Michigan yet, although it does look likely

Politoco's live count page says that he's won by about 12,000 with 100% reporting. The Detroit Free Press say it's just a formality now.

[PorFavor]

Revealed: temp agencies' tax avoidance scheme costs 'hundreds of millions'

Asked about the ethics of profiting at the expense of the taxpayer, the Guardian footage shows Griffin[Patrick Griffin of Premier Payco, a provider of the schemes] saying: “All I can do is explain to you what our product does. It’s right for some businesses and it’s wrong for other businesses. I’ve sat where you’re sat and you make your own judgments and decisions on that. All I can do is present to you the case that what we’re doing is effective, it works and it complies with all of the laws as they’re currently written.”

He added: “I never like to comment on morals because everyone’s moral compass is different, isn’t it?” (Guardian - my emphasis)

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/201 ... f-millions

[Womble44]

http://www.cracked.com/blog/what-this-e ... ut-myself/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

An article I found interesting on the US election from an online columnist's point of view.

That site also had this article, which is the first I've read that articulated the feelings over Trump in a way that gives me some understanding of the emotions involved:

http://www.cracked.com/blog/a-letter-to ... -election/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[SpinningHugo]

Brexit an "enormous opportunity" and those opposing it are "backing corporate interests"

http://www.politics.co.uk/news/2016/11/ ... ty-britain" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Hardly a surprise that this long term opponent of the EU thinks that. One reason, among many, why I don't belong to that party any longer.

[NonOxCol]

Raheem Kassam is finally held to account.....

" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[citizenJA]

https://www.ifs.org.uk/publications/8730


The fall in sterling: who is hit by the rise in inflation?

IFS

From the report:

"...those at the upper end of the expenditure distribution are more affected by rises in vehicle, holiday, and furniture costs...
...those at the lower end are more affected by rises in food, telephone, and utility costs (because these account for a relatively
large share of their budgets).

Put these effects together and we find that essentially all major demographic and income groups are affected similarly."

(my emphasis)

No. People aren't 'affected similarly'. People worrying about getting enough to eat and keep warm is a wholly different life experience
from others' having to put off redecorating the country house. Wealthy and not wealthy don't exist in separate economies, I know that.
I understand wealthier people not spending means another's income may be reduced as a consequence. I'm not denigrating IFS' work.
I'm not entirely comfortable with my anger with the some of the wording in the IFS report. I'm uninterested in appropriating any of my
wealthier neighbours' possessions. There is no other reason than greed and lack of political will for some people left with not enough.

[citizenJA]

[John McDonnell] "It is time we all were more positive about Brexit," he said.

McDonnell was asked how Labour could have any influence over the Brexit process when he had just ruled out voting against it,
or seeking to block it. "I think it's the moral pressure that we'll be able to exert… I don't think it will come down to parliamentary
procedures…No government can resist (the moral pressure)."

http://www.politics.co.uk/news/2016/11/ ... ty-britain" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[citizenJA]

http://www.cracked.com/blog/what-this-e ... ut-myself/

An article I found interesting on the US election from an online columnist's point of view.

That site also had this article, which is the first I've read that articulated the feelings over Trump in a way that gives me some understanding of the emotions involved:

http://www.cracked.com/blog/a-letter-to ... -election/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Good link, the blog entry very moving.

[ScarletGas]

Raheem Kassam is finally held to account.....

" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Murnaghan has form here I am afraid. Remember the Emily Thornbury interview of a couple of months ago. I think there was a 50/50 split of opinion as to whether he was being incisive or silly.

With that in mind and not being a member of the twitter community I am wondering whether Kassam made any comment on the Thornbury interview at the time. I am sure we can guess which side of the fence he came down on if he did, indeed, comment!

Without questioning such an upstanding pillar of the community I would love to know if he really did donate £300 to the British Legion as claimed. I freely admit to being biased here but it seemed to splutter from his mouth when under pressure and seemed such a random figure. I guess there is no way of finding out unless he decides for himself to publish something that proves his truthfulness.

I think,however,his reputation built up over some considerable time for lying (or is it "post truth") leads me to some doubt as to the veracity of his spur of the moment claim. Or is just my overly suspicious mind.........

[Willow904]

It just occurred to me that the elephant, through no fault of its own, is a symbol of the Republican party. Not an image I really want to be conveying right now! It was time for a change, anyway.

[AnatolyKasparov]

Can't say I am thrilled by McDonnell's comments (I agree with blocking Brexit not being a realistic option, but he doesn't have to sound so pleased about it)

Just as well that Starmer is in charge of this stuff, I suppose

[Willow904]

I feel compelled to point out that Hillary hasn't actually lost Michigan yet, although it does look likely

Politoco's live count page says that he's won by about 12,000 with 100% reporting. The Detroit Free Press say it's just a formality now.

Yes, I know. I was being pedantic.

[PorFavor]

East Midlands site gets green light for shale gas exploration

Nottinghamshire council approves iGas planning application to drill two wells at Misson, the third UK site to be approved for exploration this year (Guardian)

https://www.theguardian.com/environment ... xploration

[gilsey]

http://www.cracked.com/blog/what-this-e ... ut-myself/

An article I found interesting on the US election from an online columnist's point of view.

That site also had this article, which is the first I've read that articulated the feelings over Trump in a way that gives me some understanding of the emotions involved:

http://www.cracked.com/blog/a-letter-to ... -election/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

It really is a foreign country, quote from the first article

I want to make clear what I mean when I talk about the fear Trump creates. This has nothing to do with politics as usual. Rolling back gun control, limiting abortion, and lower taxes are all things I disagree with but respect as part of the political discourse.

I'm grateful that gun control and limiting abortion aren't part of political discourse here, except on the extreme periphery.
A tiny crumb of comfort.

[RogerOThornhill]

I'm out to a gig but this sounds interesting...



He's a bit in the firing line right now as he was in charge of the Tory by-election campaign which Farage failed to win...and made a slightly injudicious remark about Trump before he went into No 10.

[AnatolyKasparov]

Which "by-election" campaign was that - or do you mean Thanet S?

[HindleA]

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... g#comments" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;


Wheelchairs have come a long way – shame the NHS hasn’t
Lucy Webster



As usual some of the comments are vile.Never understood the seething resentment,never will.

[HindleA]

Of course I do understand,but don't want to believe that so many are of fascistic persuasion.

[RogerOThornhill]

Which "by-election" campaign was that - or do you mean Thanet S?

Yes, sorry, I meant Thanet South in 2015.

[RogerOThornhill]

Chris Cook ‏@xtophercook 4h4 hours ago

So @Nigel_Farage is having a go at "ghastly little apparatchiks" around the prime minister https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... ays-farage" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; … (1/2)

In unrelated news, person who ran Tory Thanet South campaign in 2015 that beat @Nigel_Farage is @NickJTimothy, PM's co-chief of staff (2/2)

[tinybgoat]

Can't say I am thrilled by McDonnell's comments (I agree with blocking Brexit not being a realistic option, but he doesn't have to sound so pleased about it)

Just as well that Starmer is in charge of this stuff, I suppose

Strangely, It was the " No government can resist (the moral pressure)." bit that I found most disturbing.

[SpinningHugo]

Can't say I am thrilled by McDonnell's comments (I agree with blocking Brexit not being a realistic option, but he doesn't have to sound so pleased about it)

Just as well that Starmer is in charge of this stuff, I suppose

Yeah.

"we'll vote for Art 50 come what may, but will apply 'moral pressure' on the government."

What a tough stance he's taken there.

Not laughable at all.

[Womble44]

Moral pressure? On a Tory government?!

[Willow904]

Can't say I am thrilled by McDonnell's comments (I agree with blocking Brexit not being a realistic option, but he doesn't have to sound so pleased about it)

Just as well that Starmer is in charge of this stuff, I suppose

Strangely, It was the " No government can resist (the moral pressure)." bit that I found most disturbing.

I just found it bemusing. The moral pressure to do what, exactly? Most of the choices related to Brexit are economic and political. Where does morality come into it?

[gilsey]

https://labourpainsblog.com/2016/11/15/etfeesevidence/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
This is good, despite being something else to be mad at the govt about.

we also know that the government’s review of employment tribunal (ET) fees has been ongoing for 17 months because “it is important that full and careful consideration is given to all the relevant evidence”. Say what you like, but there are no cobwebs at the Ministry of Injustice.

But what exactly is this ‘relevant evidence’? How long has the Ministry had it? What does it tell us? Is there more such evidence to come? And what is the point of Liz Truss?

In this post, I will try to answer (most of) these questions.

First, a few essential facts. The justice-denying ET fees of up to £1,200 were introduced on 29 July 2013. And Liz Truss, believe it or not, is Lord Chancellor and Secretary of State for Justice. Far more than the fact that we import two-thirds of our cheese, that is a disgrace.

[SpinningHugo]

https://labourpainsblog.com/2016/11/15/etfeesevidence/
This is good, despite being something else to be mad at the govt about.

we also know that the government’s review of employment tribunal (ET) fees has been ongoing for 17 months because “it is important that full and careful consideration is given to all the relevant evidence”. Say what you like, but there are no cobwebs at the Ministry of Injustice.

But what exactly is this ‘relevant evidence’? How long has the Ministry had it? What does it tell us? Is there more such evidence to come? And what is the point of Liz Truss?

In this post, I will try to answer (most of) these questions.

First, a few essential facts. The justice-denying ET fees of up to £1,200 were introduced on 29 July 2013. And Liz Truss, believe it or not, is Lord Chancellor and Secretary of State for Justice. Far more than the fact that we import two-thirds of our cheese, that is a disgrace.

Yep. This is an absolute disgrace.

[Willow904]

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... discipline" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

“There are no easy options,” McDonnell said of a planned Labour approach. “There is no proverbial magic money tree.”

The party needed “an absolute and unbreakable commitment to fiscal discipline” in government, he said, adding: “There is nothing leftwing about running an excessive deficit. There is nothing progressive about running up excessive debts.”....


....McDonnell reiterated his call for the chancellor, Philip Hammond, to use the autumn statement to formally announce an end to an approach of austerity, calling it “a political choice, not an economic necessity” made by Hammond’s predecessor George Osborne.

Maybe this will play well politicallly, I don't know, but economically I'm not sure it makes much sense. Surely the thing he is pledging, fiscal consolidation, is the same as the thing as he is condemning, fiscal austerity?!

One assumes by "austerity" he really means spending cuts, but the commitment to reducing the deficit suggests tax rises and although there are advantages to doing it that way, it's still austerity with many of the drawbacks. Unless he's just talking about borrowing to invest in an attempt to grow the economy, in which case it would be better not to bring fiscal consolidation into it as it just confuses things. Well, it confuses me, anyway.

[tinybgoat]

I'm trying to convince myself that Labour could be positioning themselves as the guardian of the true spirit of brexit, ready to point out how Tories are betraying the peoples will..
but sadly it's not working.
Beverages may be needed.

[SpinningHugo]

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... discipline

“There are no easy options,” McDonnell said of a planned Labour approach. “There is no proverbial magic money tree.”

The party needed “an absolute and unbreakable commitment to fiscal discipline” in government, he said, adding: “There is nothing leftwing about running an excessive deficit. There is nothing progressive about running up excessive debts.”....


....McDonnell reiterated his call for the chancellor, Philip Hammond, to use the autumn statement to formally announce an end to an approach of austerity, calling it “a political choice, not an economic necessity” made by Hammond’s predecessor George Osborne.

Maybe this will play well politicallly, I don't know, but economically I'm not sure it makes much sense. Surely the thing he is pledging, fiscal consolidation, is the same as the thing as he is condemning, fiscal austerity?!

One assumes by "austerity" he really means spending cuts, but the commitment to reducing the deficit suggests tax rises and although there are advantages to doing it that way, it's still austerity with many of the drawbacks. Unless he's just talking about borrowing to invest in an attempt to grow the economy, in which case it would be better not to bring fiscal consolidation into it as it just confuses things. Well, it confuses me, anyway.

It is gibberish.

Not that it matters as i dont think people are listening to what Labour is saying, because nobody thinks will ever matter.

They might be wrong of course (see Trump) but I dont think it likely

[yahyah]

I resigned from the Labour party about ten days ago. So did my husband.
I didn't say anything because I'd get it in the neck from all sides.
Hearing John McDonnell today we both feel that we did the right thing.

Will of the British people ?

Gut feeling may not be scientific, but anyone who had a stomach knew where he and Corbyn really stood on Brexit.

Caroline Lucas is someone I'll be listening to a lot more from now on. Her response today to McDonnell was good. Premature capitulation she called it. Spot on.

[yahyah]

Lesson learned again. Needs relearning every couple of years.

Never trust anyone who touts themselves as the New Honest Politics.

[Womble44]

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... discipline

“There are no easy options,” McDonnell said of a planned Labour approach. “There is no proverbial magic money tree.”

The party needed “an absolute and unbreakable commitment to fiscal discipline” in government, he said, adding: “There is nothing leftwing about running an excessive deficit. There is nothing progressive about running up excessive debts.”....


....McDonnell reiterated his call for the chancellor, Philip Hammond, to use the autumn statement to formally announce an end to an approach of austerity, calling it “a political choice, not an economic necessity” made by Hammond’s predecessor George Osborne.

Maybe this will play well politicallly, I don't know, but economically I'm not sure it makes much sense. Surely the thing he is pledging, fiscal consolidation, is the same as the thing as he is condemning, fiscal austerity?!

One assumes by "austerity" he really means spending cuts, but the commitment to reducing the deficit suggests tax rises and although there are advantages to doing it that way, it's still austerity with many of the drawbacks. Unless he's just talking about borrowing to invest in an attempt to grow the economy, in which case it would be better not to bring fiscal consolidation into it as it just confuses things. Well, it confuses me, anyway.

It is gibberish.

Not that it matters as i dont think people are listening to what Labour is saying, because nobody thinks will ever matter.

They might be wrong of course (see Trump) but I dont think it likely

It's not 'gibberish' it's quite possible to oppose austerity as it's understood in common parlance (spending less on public services) and still understand you can't just do what you want. Ultimately it means tax rises, which in economic terms may have the same impacts on consumer spending etc, but it's a very different demographic that has to cut back.

i really don't think you understand why you were wrong about Trump. Try stopping the passive aggressive asides, and you might convince more people to listen to you. Insulting those that disagree with you is poisonous to constructive dialogue.

[yahyah]

It was rather odd to see McDonnell use the say there is ''no money tree''.

That's a phrase that's been used by a million right wingers to attack Labour since 2010.

[Womble44]

Lesson learned again. Needs relearning every couple of years.

Never trust anyone who touts themselves as the New Honest Politics.

I've tried not to rise to it, but who is this post aimed at?

[Womble44]

It was rather odd to see McDonnell use the say there is ''no money tree''.

That's a phrase that's been used by a million right wingers to attack Labour since 2010.

But there isn't; the budget needs to be controlled.

[PorFavor]

The dangerous fantasy behind Trump’s normalisation

Boris Johnson has urged people to ‘snap out of the doom and gloom’. Yet this situation is not normal. Convincing ourselves the president-elect doesn’t mean everything he says is a fantasy that stops us seeing Trumpism for the barbarism it is (Guardian)

Do read it. (It's by Zoe Williams, by the way.)

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/201 ... -barbarism