Tuesday 17th January 2017

Tubby Isaacs · Post by **Tubby Isaacs** » Tue 17 Jan, 2017 3:14 pm

Ye Gods, that's dreadful.

What's his qualification to be taken seriously on the issues of the day? That some people pitched tents outside his church 5 years ago?

Tubby Isaacs · Post by **Tubby Isaacs** » Tue 17 Jan, 2017 3:17 pm

Burnham reiterates his freedom of movement drivel, though toned down a bit, Then reminds you that he has some ability.

The Prime Minister’s speech today makes specific mention of protecting the interests of Cardiff, Edinburgh, Belfast and the City of London. But there was no mention at all of the north west of England, Greater Manchester or any English region.

Rather than leaving these crucial decision to a London-centric right-wing clique around the prime minister, it is time to open up the debate, give Greater Manchester a voice in it and establish a Brexit committee of the nations and regions.

I'm not a fan of the "Boo, London!" strain in British politics generally, but "London-centric rightwing clique" is dead on. This really needs to be fleshed out, given where we are with Euroscepticism in English regions.

And given that it's true of course. I mean fleshed out as matter of political urgency.

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Tue 17 Jan, 2017 3:36 pm

Tubby Isaacs wrote:Ye Gods, that's dreadful.

What's his qualification to be taken seriously on the issues of the day? That some people pitched tents outside his church 5 years ago?

He's still feeding and giving shelter to people in his church. There's more of them five years on. What he thinks Tory government 'Brexit' is going to do to help anyone, I don't know.

AngryAsWell · Post by **AngryAsWell** » Tue 17 Jan, 2017 3:49 pm

A C GraylingVerified account
‏@acgrayling A C Grayling Retweeted The Independent
This is the most extraordinary contempt of Parliament & our democracy. It is in fact incredible that May said this. Incredible.

" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

The Independent ‏@Independent 21m21 minutes ago
Britain will leave the EU even if Parliament votes against Brexit, Downing Street confirms http://ind.pn/2jkmT0p" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

SpinningHugo · Post by **SpinningHugo** » Tue 17 Jan, 2017 3:55 pm

citizenJA wrote:
Tubby Isaacs wrote:Ye Gods, that's dreadful.

What's his qualification to be taken seriously on the issues of the day? That some people pitched tents outside his church 5 years ago?
He's still feeding and giving shelter to people in his church. There's more of them five years on. What he thinks Tory government 'Brexit' is going to do to help anyone, I don't know.

If you're dealing with the really poor and desperate, then Brexit seems a remote issue. Unfortunately, it is vitally important if we are ever going to generate the wealth to tackle the kind of problem he sees daily.

SpinningHugo · Post by **SpinningHugo** » Tue 17 Jan, 2017 3:58 pm

http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics ... 42906.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Tubby Isaacs · Post by **Tubby Isaacs** » Tue 17 Jan, 2017 4:03 pm

The markets might be interested in that.

Well done, Nick Timothy.

Tubby Isaacs · Post by **Tubby Isaacs** » Tue 17 Jan, 2017 4:06 pm

The Brains Trust are in town.

John Mann ✔ @JohnMannMP
Not possible forPM to call snap election this year- needs threat/ opportunity of calling election if Parliament votes down negotiated deal

How's Brexit looking, John?

Tubby Isaacs · Post by **Tubby Isaacs** » Tue 17 Jan, 2017 4:08 pm

SpinningHugo wrote:
citizenJA wrote:
Tubby Isaacs wrote:Ye Gods, that's dreadful.

What's his qualification to be taken seriously on the issues of the day? That some people pitched tents outside his church 5 years ago?
He's still feeding and giving shelter to people in his church. There's more of them five years on. What he thinks Tory government 'Brexit' is going to do to help anyone, I don't know.

If you're dealing with the really poor and desperate, then Brexit seems a remote issue. Unfortunately, it is vitally important if we are ever going to generate the wealth to tackle the kind of problem he sees daily.

Brexit's less remote than ruminating on Mrs Thatcher and international markets, as he's doing there.

SpinningHugo · Post by **SpinningHugo** » Tue 17 Jan, 2017 4:14 pm

Labour has arguments of two kinds

1. Process. may should have given the speech in Parliament. We want more detail. Basically trivia.

2. The kind of Britain we have after a Hard Brexit. So Corbyn and McDonnell will go on about Britain becoming a tax haven etc. This is an argument about what happens after Hard Brexit, not about Brexit itself.

Irrelevant stuff.

Tubby Isaacs · Post by **Tubby Isaacs** » Tue 17 Jan, 2017 4:15 pm

Tim Farron to call out that we'll get a worse deal. I can understand why Labour doesn't go for the second referendum yet, but I don't get why they won't make this point.

Tubby Isaacs · Post by **Tubby Isaacs** » Tue 17 Jan, 2017 4:21 pm

SpinningHugo wrote:Labour has arguments of two kinds

1. Process. may should have given the speech in Parliament. We want more detail. Basically trivia.

2. The kind of Britain we have after a Hard Brexit. So Corbyn and McDonnell will go on about Britain becoming a tax haven etc. This is an argument about what happens after Hard Brexit, not about Brexit itself.

Irrelevant stuff.

With some skill, the two points could be brought together. "Call that a plan? Tax haven?" They've got enough to oppose Article 50 on if they want to.

SpinningHugo · Post by **SpinningHugo** » Tue 17 Jan, 2017 4:21 pm

Tubby Isaacs wrote:Tim Farron to call out that we'll get a worse deal. I can understand why Labour doesn't go for the second referendum yet, but I don't get why they won't make this point.

Because the leadership favour Brexit. Lots of opportunities for the (far) left. People like Corbyn/McDonnell are much happier if the fight becomes one between their Bennite Trabant future and Singapore writ large.

Tubby Isaacs · Post by **Tubby Isaacs** » Tue 17 Jan, 2017 4:23 pm

SpinningHugo wrote:
Tubby Isaacs wrote:Tim Farron to call out that we'll get a worse deal. I can understand why Labour doesn't go for the second referendum yet, but I don't get why they won't make this point.

Because the leadership favour Brexit. Lots of opportunities for the (far) left. People like Corbyn/McDonnell are much happier if the fight becomes one between their Bennite Trabant future and Singapore writ large.

Others could make it though. Nia Griffiths and Emily Thornberry this week told Jez and Milne to get stuffed over NATO.

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Tue 17 Jan, 2017 4:30 pm

Theresa May has said her offer to guarantee the rights of EU citizens in the UK has been snubbed by “one or two” European leaders.

“We want to guarantee the rights of EU citizens who are already living in Britain and the rights of Britons in other member states
as early as we can,” she said. “I have told EU leaders we could do that now,” she said. “Many of them favour such an agreement,
one or two others do not,” she said.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... referendum" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

(cJA emphasis)

'EU leaders'?
Who?
There's no 'EU leader' with authority to agree or refuse to agree with T May about guaranteed rights of EU citizens in the UK or other member states.

Is she referring to the leaders of EU countries? UK citizens are still EU citizens. There's nothing to discuss with individual leaders of EU nations.
Leaders of other EU nations have UK nationals with EU citizenship living/working in their countries right now.
How on earth can they agree to whatever she claims she's asked?

SpinningHugo · Post by **SpinningHugo** » Tue 17 Jan, 2017 4:38 pm

Labour's ferocious opposition

‘For many months, we in Labour have been demanding fullest possible access to the single market, emphasising the risks of leaving the customs union, arguing for a collaborative relationship with our EU partners, emphasising the need for transitional arrangements and the entrenchment of workers’ rights. Today the Prime Minister has rightly accepted these in her plan and I acknowledge that.’

-K Starmer 17/1

Tubby Isaacs · Post by **Tubby Isaacs** » Tue 17 Jan, 2017 4:40 pm

She's probably got a point there. The other EU leaders have to reciprocate. It does them no harm to wait because they're not the ones looking like nationalist loons.

Starmer was good on this. It's for the UK to start its process properly.

Tubby Isaacs · Post by **Tubby Isaacs** » Tue 17 Jan, 2017 4:41 pm

SpinningHugo wrote:Labour's ferocious opposition

‘For many months, we in Labour have been demanding fullest possible access to the single market, emphasising the risks of leaving the customs union, arguing for a collaborative relationship with our EU partners, emphasising the need for transitional arrangements and the entrenchment of workers’ rights. Today the Prime Minister has rightly accepted these in her plan and I acknowledge that.’

-K Starmer 17/1

Dead sheep.

He does mean Customs Union. Not even prepared to hold the Tories to promising the Single Market in their manifesto.

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Tue 17 Jan, 2017 4:55 pm

Tubby Isaacs wrote:She's probably got a point there. The other EU leaders have to reciprocate. It does them no harm to wait because they're not the ones looking like nationalist loons.

Starmer was good on this. It's for the UK to start its process properly.

T May saying a couple 'EU leaders' have denied her overtures of reciprocal citizenship protections agreements is not credible.
Other 'EU leaders' or leaders of countries belonging to the EU, cannot legally agree or disagree with her right now.

yahyah · Post by **yahyah** » Tue 17 Jan, 2017 5:47 pm

Carwyn Jones' response to Leanne Wood about Brexit today

http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/polit ... y-12467827" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Tubby Isaacs · Post by **Tubby Isaacs** » Tue 17 Jan, 2017 5:48 pm

citizenJA wrote:
Tubby Isaacs wrote:She's probably got a point there. The other EU leaders have to reciprocate. It does them no harm to wait because they're not the ones looking like nationalist loons.

Starmer was good on this. It's for the UK to start its process properly.
T May saying a couple 'EU leaders' have denied her overtures of reciprocal citizenship protections agreements is not credible.
Other 'EU leaders' or leaders of countries belonging to the EU, cannot legally agree or disagree with her right now.

That's what Juncker and the Commission are for. To bring together what the member state governments think. Instead of phoning round 27 countries, she phones them. They might or might not give her a straight answer seeing we've made ourselves into a laughing stock.

Of course she could well be bullshitting. But equally I can see why a couple of countries might not be taking their time, shall we say. It's us that look stupid and upsetting people we need to stay, not them.

Tubby Isaacs · Post by **Tubby Isaacs** » Tue 17 Jan, 2017 5:50 pm

yahyah wrote:Carwyn Jones' response to Leanne Wood about Brexit today

http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/polit ... y-12467827" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

I can there that Jones is close to saying Single Market, but wary of saying it. That's not great, but it's better than UK Labour.

Tubby Isaacs · Post by **Tubby Isaacs** » Tue 17 Jan, 2017 5:52 pm

Taking back control!

Sam Coates Times ‏@SamCoatesTimes 25 minutes ago
The Parliamentary votes in 2019 likely to force MPs to chose between her free trade deal or no deal at all (WTO rules / disorder)

I don't see how it can force that, but anyway.

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Tue 17 Jan, 2017 6:03 pm

https://www.theguardian.com/society/pic ... other-name" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Disability by another name

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Tue 17 Jan, 2017 6:07 pm

https://www.theguardian.com/society/201 ... -provision" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Councils get £48m to expand homelessness provision
LGA says costs associated with new legislation on issue are hard to predict and calls for review in two years’ time

yahyah · Post by **yahyah** » Tue 17 Jan, 2017 6:21 pm

Desperate stuff from Mike Sivier.

http://voxpoliticalonline.com/2017/01/1 ... ic-oppose/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Corbynite Ultras like him usually snarl at anyone who mentions polling, yet he pipes up about an online vote on his own website.

''This attracted 12 votes....this attracted 18 votes'' ''Six of you voted...''

GetYou · Post by **GetYou** » Tue 17 Jan, 2017 6:25 pm

HindleA wrote:https://www.theguardian.com/society/201 ... -provision

Councils get £48m to expand homelessness provision
LGA says costs associated with new legislation on issue are hard to predict and calls for review in two years’ time

In the grand scheme of things that's sweet FA. We're trying to avoid a £7m shortfall in our TA budget caused by Home Counties cost rises and LHA issues.

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Tue 17 Jan, 2017 6:28 pm

Tubby Isaacs wrote:
citizenJA wrote:
Tubby Isaacs wrote:She's probably got a point there. The other EU leaders have to reciprocate. It does them no harm to wait because they're not the ones looking like nationalist loons.

Starmer was good on this. It's for the UK to start its process properly.
T May saying a couple 'EU leaders' have denied her overtures of reciprocal citizenship protections agreements is not credible.
Other 'EU leaders' or leaders of countries belonging to the EU, cannot legally agree or disagree with her right now.
That's what Juncker and the Commission are for. To bring together what the member state governments think. Instead of phoning round 27 countries, she phones them. They might or might not give her a straight answer seeing we've made ourselves into a laughing stock.

No. The UK nationals living/working in the EU are UK/EU citizens. Why would a country's leader relay that information? There's no ball in the EU court. In fact, the greatest threat to May is their magnanimity. May trying fobbing off talk of some 'EU leader' bad guys preventing her doing right by EU nationals in the UK and in other EU nations is obnoxious and chilling. She's managed to convince people EU nations' leaders actually have decision-making power now. They don't. She's willing to submit millions of people to insecurity arguing someone else is the bad guy.

Tubby Isaacs wrote:Of course she could well be bullshitting. But equally I can see why a couple of countries might not be taking their time, shall we say. It's us that look stupid and upsetting people we need to stay, not them.

It's not any other leaders taking their time, time and Article 50 are the UK's alone right now. It's impossible for EU nations' leaders to 'take their time'. Take their time doing what? Those UK citizens are EU citizens. The UK hasn't altered that fact yet. There's nothing EU leaders can do.

Lookit - circumstances rarely offer up one side being so utterly wrong and another blameless but this is one of those times. As desperately as Tory government want someone other than the UK to be blamed for acrimonious action, it truly is only the UK's fault in this case. May isn't just bullshitting. Her amateur maligning of EU nation leaders this way unbelievable and stupid, too.

Tubby Isaacs · Post by **Tubby Isaacs** » Tue 17 Jan, 2017 6:41 pm

It's not any other leaders taking their time, time and Article 50 are the UK's alone right now. It's impossible for EU nations' leaders to 'take their time'. Take their time doing what? Those UK citizens are EU citizens. The UK hasn't altered that fact yet. There's nothing EU leaders can do.

Take their time taking their time. They don't have to do anything. Not even give Theresa May or the Commission an answer about whether they want to sort the issue out. The "bargaining chip" thing hasn't gone down well in Britain- even Farage didn't go for it.

I would expect the Home Office visa stories we read are being read in the home country too. They make us look stupid and will strengthen collective resolve against us. It's not that they're being bad guys or even hardballing this point. Everybody expects us to make the first move. They don't look bad, we do.

SpinningHugo · Post by **SpinningHugo** » Tue 17 Jan, 2017 6:57 pm

yahyah wrote:Desperate stuff from Mike Sivier.

http://voxpoliticalonline.com/2017/01/1 ... ic-oppose/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Corbynite Ultras like him usually snarl at anyone who mentions polling, yet he pipes up about an online vote on his own website.

''This attracted 12 votes....this attracted 18 votes'' ''Six of you voted...''

That cheered me up, thanks.

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Tue 17 Jan, 2017 6:59 pm

Tubby Isaacs wrote:
It's not any other leaders taking their time, time and Article 50 are the UK's alone right now. It's impossible for EU nations' leaders to 'take their time'. Take their time doing what? Those UK citizens are EU citizens. The UK hasn't altered that fact yet. There's nothing EU leaders can do.
Take their time taking their time. They don't have to do anything. Not even give Theresa May or the Commission an answer about whether they want to sort the issue out. The "bargaining chip" thing hasn't gone down well in Britain- even Farage didn't go for it.

I would expect the Home Office visa stories we read are being read in the home country too. They make us look stupid and will strengthen collective resolve against us. It's not that they're being bad guys or even hardballing this point. Everybody expects us to make the first move. They don't look bad, we do.

Quite.

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Tue 17 Jan, 2017 7:08 pm

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/busin ... 31391.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Theresa May Brexit Speech: Economic experts react

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Tue 17 Jan, 2017 7:31 pm

https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... s-southern" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

No guarantee of help for disabled passengers, says Southern
Train maps no longer specify stations where passengers needing assistance can turn up and travel

RogerOThornhill · Post by **RogerOThornhill** » Tue 17 Jan, 2017 7:36 pm

Evening all.

Long day out of the office today...

What makes the votes in both houses on this interesting is the fact that usually the Commons can simply bypass the Lords by invoking the "it was in the manifesto!".

But on this occasion what was in the manifesto, as I keep reminding people, was this:

So, the Lords (and Commons for that matter) could rightly vote down any deal on the grounds that leaving the single market wasn't in the manifesto.

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Tue 17 Jan, 2017 7:45 pm

"...both sides in the referendum campaign made it clear that a vote to leave the EU would be a vote to leave the Single Market."

- from Theresa May's speech setting out the plan for Brexit negotiations
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/ho ... 31361.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Not true.

RogerOThornhill · Post by **RogerOThornhill** » Tue 17 Jan, 2017 7:50 pm

citizenJA wrote:
"...both sides in the referendum campaign made it clear that a vote to leave the EU would be a vote to leave the Single Market."

- from Theresa May's speech setting out the plan for Brexit negotiations
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/ho ... 31361.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Not true.

No it isn't true at all - there's a video going round with the main players all claiming that there is no intention of leaving the single market.

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Tue 17 Jan, 2017 7:51 pm

https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... -tuc-talks" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Southern rail strikes suspended as two sides agree to TUC talks

StephenDolan · Post by **StephenDolan** » Tue 17 Jan, 2017 7:58 pm

RogerOThornhill wrote:
citizenJA wrote:
"...both sides in the referendum campaign made it clear that a vote to leave the EU would be a vote to leave the Single Market."

- from Theresa May's speech setting out the plan for Brexit negotiations
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/ho ... 31361.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Not true.
No it isn't true at all - there's a video going round with the main players all claiming that there is no intention of leaving the single market.

Have you got a link to that, Dr R?

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Tue 17 Jan, 2017 8:01 pm

https://secondreading.uk/brexit/brexit- ... r-no-deal/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Second Reading
the House of Commons Library blog

Brexit and Parliament: deal or no deal?

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Tue 17 Jan, 2017 8:08 pm

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/201 ... ance-costs" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Repealing Obamacare would leave 32m without health coverage, analysis finds

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Tue 17 Jan, 2017 8:09 pm

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/201 ... nsin-texas" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Healthcare without Planned Parenthood: Wisconsin and Texas point to dark future

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Tue 17 Jan, 2017 8:10 pm

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/ ... ion-access" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

US abortion rate is lowest since Roe v Wade – but contraception access may go
Study finds strong indication contraception access linked to abortion fall
Republican Affordable Care Act repeal would end easier access to birth control

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Tue 17 Jan, 2017 8:14 pm

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-n ... bt-debacle" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Labor pushes for Senate inquiry into Centrelink robo-debt 'debacle'
Opposition says thousands of innocent people are being pursued for debts they don’t owe and an inquiry is needed into the system

(Australia)

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Tue 17 Jan, 2017 8:17 pm

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/ ... tion-split" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

C of E archbishops call on Christians to repent for Reformation split

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Tue 17 Jan, 2017 8:19 pm

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/ ... mp-waxwork" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Femen activist reportedly held on to statue’s crotch shouting ‘grab patriarchy by the balls’

AngryAsWell · Post by **AngryAsWell** » Tue 17 Jan, 2017 8:29 pm

Damon
‏@damocrat
If #TheresaMay thinks that other #EU nations will give us what she wants, she should take note of this French MEP.

" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Post by **PaulfromYorkshire** » Tue 17 Jan, 2017 8:37 pm

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... priorities" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

tory-backbenchers-white-paper-theresa-may-brexit-priorities

howsillyofme1 · Post by **howsillyofme1** » Tue 17 Jan, 2017 8:50 pm

Evening - just a small intervention

Whatever the Parliamentary vote is in 2019 it will not be WTO vs a useless deal from May

The A50 invocation starts negotiations for Exit and not on trade, although in reality there will be some parallel discussions, the idea there will be a trade deal agreed by then is stretching credibility to the limit. The UK will have enough trouble identifying which of the 3 million EU residents can be converted to Permanent Residence when we have no idea who is actually residing in the UK at any one time, by 2019

The EU comments today have included this today but, as it is not on the agenda wanted to be followed by the Tories and their media pals, they are being pretty much ignored

There are two options to help us as I see it:

Do not invoke A50 (if Labour votes against this then they are dead.....to ignore the referendum is, in my view, suicidal for the party)
UK revokes A50 (ECJ?)
There is an extension to A50 to cover the trade negotiation timeline (unanimous EU27?)

Willow904 · Post by **Willow904** » Tue 17 Jan, 2017 9:04 pm

howsillyofme1 wrote:Evening - just a small intervention

Whatever the Parliamentary vote is in 2019 it will not be WTO vs a useless deal from May

The A50 invocation starts negotiations for Exit and not on trade, although in reality there will be some parallel discussions, the idea there will be a trade deal agreed by then is stretching credibility to the limit. The UK will have enough trouble identifying which of the 3 million EU residents can be converted to Permanent Residence when we have no idea who is actually residing in the UK at any one time, by 2019

The EU comments today have included this today but, as it is not on the agenda wanted to be followed by the Tories and their media pals, they are being pretty much ignored

There are two options to help us as I see it:

Do not invoke A50 (if Labour votes against this then they are dead.....to ignore the referendum is, in my view, suicidal for the party)
UK revokes A50 (ECJ?)
There is an extension to A50 to cover the trade negotiation timeline (unanimous EU27?)

As far as I can tell from what Theresa May said, parliament will have the opportunity to vote on the exit deal, but if they vote against it we will leave without one. I think it would be pretty irresponsible to leave without one, so the vote doesn't represent any kind of choice or say in the matter at all, really. I think it was presented deliberately in a way to suggest parliament would be consulted, when the reality is they will not.

Therefore I see little likelihood of being able to prevent us leaving both the EU and the single market as a result, once article 50 is triggered. There is no way a new trade relationship will be negotiated before the next election, however, and I see no reason why the EU wouldn't be willing to allow us to re-join the single market under a new government. The real question is whether any party capable of winning an election would offer that option.

AngryAsWell · Post by **AngryAsWell** » Tue 17 Jan, 2017 9:10 pm

Nick Reeves - 48%
‏@nickreeves9876
/ @GuyVerhofstadt showing more concern for the 48% and the British people as a whole than our tax haven craving government.

" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;