Thursday 19th January 2017

[citizenJA]

Personally I'd like Labour to vote against triggering A50, but only if it's guaranteed the govt will still win the vote.

It seems to me that sentiment is hardening in favour of brexit, not against it. The to-ing and fro-ing on EEA/Customs Union/WTO is just going to get on peoples nerves more and more, tbh I can see where May et al are coming from - hard brexit is easier to deliver and will please a good number of the population in the short term. Five years down the road if/when the economy is tanking, exports have fallen off a cliff and unemployment has doubled, there'll still be many saying it's the EUs fault, or the govt did it wrong, or the US economy's crashed and taken the ROW with it, for different reasons but we can still hold it responsible. In other words they still won't be convinced brexit per se was a crap idea.

If we don't leave, or somehow swing EEA, because parliament voted it down, the number who won't be convinced that brexit was a crap idea will be huge*, and they'll be able to blame Labour. The EU will still be poisoning debate twenty years down the road.

It makes me very sad. I agree with Paul, the only hope is events in the intervening period after A50 is triggered.


*not least because with the tories in charge the economy might be tanking anyway, in or out of the EU.

I think it's legally impossible to do it. I think sending off Article 50 to Brussels taking UK people
and country out of the EU right now is untenable. It leaves Parliament legally compromised.

[yahyah]

Relax. Trump gets the nuclear codes tonight. We might not have to worry about Brexit.

[HindleA]

"Always look at the bright side of life"

[HindleA]

Or death.

[PaulfromYorkshire]

Personally I'd like Labour to vote against triggering A50, but only if it's guaranteed the govt will still win the vote.

It seems to me that sentiment is hardening in favour of brexit, not against it. The to-ing and fro-ing on EEA/Customs Union/WTO is just going to get on peoples nerves more and more, tbh I can see where May et al are coming from - hard brexit is easier to deliver and will please a good number of the population in the short term. Five years down the road if/when the economy is tanking, exports have fallen off a cliff and unemployment has doubled, there'll still be many saying it's the EUs fault, or the govt did it wrong, or the US economy's crashed and taken the ROW with it, for different reasons but we can still hold it responsible. In other words they still won't be convinced brexit per se was a crap idea.

If we don't leave, or somehow swing EEA, because parliament voted it down, the number who won't be convinced that brexit was a crap idea will be huge*, and they'll be able to blame Labour. The EU will still be poisoning debate twenty years down the road.

It makes me very sad. I agree with Paul, the only hope is events in the intervening period after A50 is triggered.


*not least because with the tories in charge the economy might be tanking anyway, in or out of the EU.

I think it's legally impossible to do it. I think sending off Article 50 to Brussels taking UK people
and country out of the EU right now is untenable. It leaves Parliament legally compromised.

I know we have different views on this JA. I'd observe that the EU has always been happy to finesse its treaties when it's suited. Remember Ireland voted no to Lisbon, so Brussels basically said have another go so you can get it right next time. And surely Greece has violated every rule in the book!

But it's true I'm wrong to belittle the symbolic, at very least, nature of the trigger. I certainly wish it wasn't happening!

[PaulfromYorkshire]

And finally for now, you'll all be glad to know , I will only be happy with Labour voting for Article 50 is they've tried very seriously to amend the "plan" around a number of key issues.

Then my feeling is they'll be able to say look we tried. And when things go wrong, they'll be able to say we told you so.

[gilsey]

Tubby, I've said from the beginning, imo there is no good answer for labour over brexit, they've been screwed since day 1.

Corbyn's certainly done nothing to help, but who could have? One of the 'moderates' falling over themselves to be 'concerned about immigration'? No thanks.
Starmer and Lewis might well have a better grasp of the minutiae, which is admirable but goes way over most peoples heads.

Labour failed to stress the positives of EU membership 1997-2010, and voted in favour of holding the EUref. I blame Labour for that, but I don't blame Corbyn otherwise. I don't criticise him much because I see no short-term alternative, so what would be the point?

[citizenJA]

As one Labour MP from a remain constituency tells me: “Unless there’s a cast-iron guarantee the British people will get a say on the
final deal, I won’t vote to trigger article 50. If it’s irreversible as the government says then I can’t – given May’s stated hard Brexit
objectives and her party’s political track record – trigger article 50 on such terms.”

- Labour is in a unique bind over article 50
Owen Jones

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... orbyn-vote" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

No kidding, babe, good for you, sincerely.
'Given May's stated Brexit objectives and her party's political track record'
I'm not taking the UK out of the EU with the b******s in government.

[yahyah]

Thanks for that link about potential problems for Welsh farmers AngryAsWell.

Just reading the Welsh press about it.
The area I live in is sheep farming territory. The farms are family farms, not big concerns, the farmers don't live in luxury farmhouses or drive expensive cars. They work long hard hours, their sheep are their lives.

It is hard to even start to contemplate what the effects could be on this community if Brexit deals wreck their livelihoods. There's a little tourism but not much else to provide incomes.

[HindleA]

http://www.disabilitynewsservice.com/de ... -warnings/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;


Department of Health ignores NHS continuing healthcare human rights warnings

[Willow904]

There's a bit in the film "Stuart Little 2" when the dad realises that Stuart is missing and thinks his brother George knows something about it. George says that he made a promise to Stuart not to tell where he went and it would be wrong to break that promise. The dad wryly observes that it was wrong to make a promise that involved lying to his father in the first place.

This, I think, is the crux of where many Labour MPs find themselves. The argument that it would be wrong to thwart the result of the referendum is a sound one and I understand where people are coming from on this. However, and it's a big however, it was wrong to promise to abide by the result of a poorly thought through referendum, with no caveats or thresholds and no thoughts to the damage it would inflict on the union if some of the kingdoms voted differently from others, in the first place.

George, realising that his mouse brother Stuart could be in real danger, broke his promise and told his dad where he went. There's some great tunes and an exciting battle between Stuart in a little plane and a nasty falcon which finally gets its comeuppance and they all go home to supper. Unfortunately, here in the real world, I suspect the aftermath to the article 50 bill, whichever way it goes, isn't going to be anywhere near as jolly, but I'm still hoping the nasty Tories get their comeuppance eventually, one way or another.

[citizenJA]

"...there is an obvious inconsistency in the prime minister calling for a bigger role for the state to ensure globalisation works for those who voted for Brexit;
and the chancellor saying that if the worst came to the worst Britain could slash taxes, have a bonfire of regulations and be western Europe’s Hong Kong."

- May and Hammond fail to win new fans among tough Davos crowd
Larry Elliott

https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... -pm-europe" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[Eric_WLothian]

So

the parties of the 52% are the Tories and Ukip

the parties of the 48% are the Lib Dems, SNP, Greens and PC.

the party of the 0% is Labour.

Not so long ago it was conventional wisdom that the EU would destroy the Tory party.....

Not true.

The SNP do not represent the views of the 48% (or the Scottish proportion thereof). The SNP are just campaigning for a better Brexit deal for Scotland. (which is, imo, a non-starter but gives them an opportunity to whinge about any Westminster deal).

The Greens back independence and therefore effectively resigning from the EU.

When Jo Maugham said that:

11. Nicola Sturgeon on Marr committed Scotland to an Independence Referendum if it is taken out of the Single Market.

he was missing the point that Sturgeon cannot commit Scotland to another independence referendum - It's not within her power. A UK bill is required. It may be possible for her to hold an advisory referendum (Where have I heard that before?) but it would have no legal weight whatsoever. I would guess that such a referendum would attract the SNP acolytes, but most Unionists wouldn't bother to take part.

So that leaves the Lib Dems. (Don't know about PC).

[PorFavor]

Trump's treasury secretary pick failed to disclose nearly $100m in assets

Steven Mnuchin didn’t tell the Senate finance committee that he was a director of an investment fund incorporated in a tax haven and omitted other assets

“I assure you that these forms were very complicated,” he said. “When I certified those forms I thought it was correct.” Mnuchin said he may have erred in giving the forms in early and should have waited and that his lawyer had assured him he had filled the forms in correctly. (Guardian)

And he's going to be the Treasury Secretary?

Apart from his inability to understand the forms, he sounds, from the rest of the article, to be a veritable saint.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/201 ... n-treasury

[tinyclanger2]

But the argument - from many people, not just Corbyn supporters - is that voting for A50 is about "recognising the will of the people" and not in any way supporting May's "plan", a hard Brexit or whatever. Added to this, of course, is the question of whether triggering A50 is as irreversible as some claim. It is fair to say legal opinion is divided.

Deranged though it was, the referendum was about neither leaving the single market or limiting immigration. It was about leaving the "EU". So triggering A50 on these grounds is not in any way the expressed will of the people; it is the will of those people who want to interpret it that way.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Have we had this.


https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... y-election" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Labour will only let Theresa May trigger the process for leaving the European Union if she agrees to the party’s “Brexit bottom line”, Jeremy Corbyn has said in an interview.

The opposition will join forces with Conservative remain supporters and other parties to block article 50 if the prime minister does not guarantee access to the single market, the Labour leader told the Sunday Mirror.

The paper said that Corbyn’s four bottom lines were:

UK access to 500 million customers in Europe’s single market.
No watering down of EU workplace rights.
Guarantees on safeguarding consumers and the environment.
A promise that Britain will pick up the tab for any EU capital investment lost as a result of Brexit.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Tubby, I've said from the beginning, imo there is no good answer for labour over brexit, they've been screwed since day 1.

Corbyn's certainly done nothing to help, but who could have? One of the 'moderates' falling over themselves to be 'concerned about immigration'? No thanks.
Starmer and Lewis might well have a better grasp of the minutiae, which is admirable but goes way over most peoples heads.

Labour failed to stress the positives of EU membership 1997-2010, and voted in favour of holding the EUref. I blame Labour for that, but I don't blame Corbyn otherwise. I don't criticise him much because I see no short-term alternative, so what would be the point?

They already came up with something that can unite the "concerned about immigration" crowd. Customs Union option.

It's not minutiae. See what Corbyn said in November.

This shit isn't getting any better for Corbyn.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... y-election" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Labour will only let Theresa May trigger the process for leaving the European Union if she agrees to the party’s “Brexit bottom line”, Jeremy Corbyn has said in an interview.

The opposition will join forces with Conservative remain supporters and other parties to block article 50 if the prime minister does not guarantee access to the single market, the Labour leader told the Sunday Mirror.

The paper said that Corbyn’s four bottom lines were:

UK access to 500 million customers in Europe’s single market.
No watering down of EU workplace rights.
Guarantees on safeguarding consumers and the environment.
A promise that Britain will pick up the tab for any EU capital investment lost as a result of Brexit.

May couldn't have ruled out 3 and 4 more strongly.

He's therefore not blocking Brexit.

[Tubby Isaacs]

I know we have different views on this JA. I'd observe that the EU has always been happy to finesse its treaties when it's suited. Remember Ireland voted no to Lisbon, so Brussels basically said have another go so you can get it right next time. And surely Greece has violated every rule in the book!

But it's true I'm wrong to belittle the symbolic, at very least, nature of the trigger. I certainly wish it wasn't happening!

This is dead right. A way is found when it has to be.

In defence of the "second referendum" thing, the alternative to it is one country having a permanent veto on 27 others. That's surely not on. So the fudge, second referendum with concessions and clarifications happens.

It's by far the best solution.

[AngryAsWell]

Londoner's Diary: Simon Danczuk left in limbo by Labour
In today's Diary: G&Ts with Simon Danczuk | The only May in the Little Britain village | Dylan Hartley's hearing suit | Lionel Barber names a date for his Legion d'honneur | Brexit: the Musical hits Parliament

“This seems unfair, and while I remain supportive of Keith it does appear that I’ve been treated very differently.” The Londoner tried to draw Danczuk on whether he would now defect to another party — he didn’t say yes and he didn’t say no: “I’m weighing up my options at this point.”

http://www.standard.co.uk/news/londoner ... 43561.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Waiting to see how UKIP do in the upcoming by-elections ?

[HindleA]

https://www.theguardian.com/football/20 ... ms-the-den" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;


Millwall stadium controversy intensifies as false funding claims revealed

[AngryAsWell]

38 degrees immigration survey - https://speakout.38degrees.org.uk/surve ... rce=member" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; …

[AngryAsWell]

Jerry Hogg
‏@jerryhogg
But WHY didn't May use EU laws to control immigration?
Because it makes UK money, not costs it. Denial of that is Tory-UKIP Coalition lies

" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Interesting - why didn't May use these EU immigration powers when she was at the home Office?

[HindleA]

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... SApp_Other" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;



Lives torn apart and assets lost: this is what a Labour privatisation would mean
Aditya Chakrabortty

[AngryAsWell]

It's Welsh Year of Legends 2017 and I just entered a competition to win a weekend break ! - lol
Promotions look wonderful though

http://www.visitwales.com/latest-news/2 ... gends-2017" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[tinyclanger2]

Mr Steel

Even North Korea has some sort of arrangement with its neighbours but that’s because Kim Jong-un is a member of the liberal metropolitan elite, eh Theresa May
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/the ... 36081.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[tinyclanger2]

At last we’re ruled by a politician who can show a touch of humility. Because Theresa May insists Britain will be richer and more free and glorious once we’ve left the EU – but she supported staying in the EU until the referendum result. So presumably there must have been a section of her speech this week – perhaps I missed it – that went, “It’s now clear that for many years, everything I said was utter bollocks. Thank Christ most of you took no notice of me, otherwise we’d still be in this institution I now describe as a rancid pile of yak mess."

[tinyclanger2]

Before the vote, the Prime Minister informed us “44 per cent of our exports go to the EU, but only eight per cent of the EU’s exports are to Britain. Remaining in the EU makes us more prosperous.” Some people have cruelly interpreted that as meaning she believed remaining in the EU makes us more prosperous, which shows how deceitful the Remain side could be.

[Tubby Isaacs]

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... SApp_Other



Lives torn apart and assets lost: this is what a Labour privatisation would mean
Aditya Chakrabortty

It's possible to make things sound worse than they are- lots of the "council" places are sold already, so it's fewer social units than it sounds. And you can look at bedspaces as well as properties. If they replace a load of 1 beds with family houses, that could be positive.

But it sounds way over the line. I've heard before that this is a dodgy council.

[tinyclanger2]

At last kettles can be eight miles wide because we’re no longer shackled to the EU’s monstrous stifling filthy rules that she once insisted we had to remain within as they made us more prosperous.

[tinyclanger2]

Soon the anti-EU press will complain it’s been eight months since the referendum in which the British people clearly voted to collect a tanker full of teenagers’ vomit collected from city centres on Friday nights and dump it in fountains at the Place de la Concord.

[tinyclanger2]

In any case, the EU will offer us a lovely deal now they’ve heard how Theresa May is going to be tough.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Before the vote, the Prime Minister informed us “44 per cent of our exports go to the EU, but only eight per cent of the EU’s exports are to Britain. Remaining in the EU makes us more prosperous.” Some people have cruelly interpreted that as meaning she believed remaining in the EU makes us more prosperous, which shows how deceitful the Remain side could be.

Ha ha.

[PaulfromYorkshire]

At last kettles can be eight miles wide because we’re no longer shackled to the EU’s monstrous stifling filthy rules that she once insisted we had to remain within as they made us more prosperous.

And my word am I looking forward to buying curved bananas in any denomination of bunch I want

[HindleA]

Gillian Troughton will be the candidate for Labour in the Copeland bye election

[citizenJA]

Before the vote, the Prime Minister informed us “44 per cent of our exports go to the EU, but only eight per cent of the EU’s exports are to Britain. Remaining in the EU makes us more prosperous.” Some people have cruelly interpreted that as meaning she believed remaining in the EU makes us more prosperous, which shows how deceitful the Remain side could be.

Your post will get lifted and posted as gospel elsewhere, you know.

[AngryAsWell]

This is the proposal for how a £1.2bn City Deal will change south east Wales
Council cabinets will next week approve a report which lays out aims for the City Deal

http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/local ... l-12478427" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[AnatolyKasparov]

Gillian Troughton will be the candidate for Labour in the Copeland bye election

A slight surprise to some, but all three hopefuls were strong candidates in their own right.

Before anyone asks, I wasn't able to attend tonight's meeting and hadn't arranged a proxy vote. It was proving a pretty difficult choice anyway

[PorFavor]

At last kettles can be eight miles wide because we’re no longer shackled to the EU’s monstrous stifling filthy rules that she once insisted we had to remain within as they made us more prosperous.

And my word am I looking forward to buying curved bananas in any denomination of bunch I want

I bought some bananas the other day. I was heartened when I discovered that, rather than the straight ones that I usually get, these ones were pleasingly curved. So, we're already making progress. British initiative at its very best. There'll be no stopping us if we can make these sorts of strides in such a short time.

[AngryAsWell]

Brexit Postings for Bankers May Hinge on School for the Kids

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... r-the-kids" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Splendid opportunity for forward thinking MATs I would say...

[tinyclanger2]

It's all so grim.

[AngryAsWell]

It's all so grim.

Seconded..

[Tubby Isaacs]

Gillian Troughton will be the candidate for Labour in the Copeland bye election

Heck. No Rachel Holliday then? Is that an upset?

[AngryAsWell]

Old News, but just interested in why didn't we go for maglev trains instead of HS2?
First passengers on Japanese maglev train travel at speeds of 311 mph

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world ... 63173.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[AngryAsWell]

Old News, but just interested in why didn't we go for maglev trains instead of HS2?
First passengers on Japanese maglev train travel at speeds of 311 mph

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world ... 63173.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Or even the Hyperloop

http://www.pocket-lint.com/news/132405- ... -explained" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[SpinningHugo]

Gillian Troughton will be the candidate for Labour in the Copeland bye election

Heck. No Rachel Holliday then? Is that an upset?

Predicted

http://uk.businessinsider.com/labour-to ... ion-2017-1" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[HindleA]

They binned intention to abolish Attendance Allowance,what can happen when 1.being vigilant,they hid it under DCLG business rate retention 2.being organised and effective in opposing.

It was an obvious thin end of a very large wedge attempt ie.national right according to agreed eligibility versus discretionary under the localism bollox.

An easy hit?Possibly because it was an incredibly stupid idea with obvious intent.Of course that hasn't stopped them before.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Old News, but just interested in why didn't we go for maglev trains instead of HS2?
First passengers on Japanese maglev train travel at speeds of 311 mph

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world ... 63173.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

HS2 is primarily about capacity. The speed bit is secondary, and despite what you read, it was when the work really started in 2009. It also connects with existing track, which Maglev can't.

I think too that fast Maglev tends to be outside city centres.

[adam]

It's all so grim.

Seconded..

We are all aware, aren't we, that because of the monoculture of agribusiness and a new and particularly nasty virus it seems quite likely that bananas will be extinct as a commercially viable product in the next few years?

Have we really voted to leave the EU for nothing?

[AngryAsWell]

Old News, but just interested in why didn't we go for maglev trains instead of HS2?
First passengers on Japanese maglev train travel at speeds of 311 mph

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world ... 63173.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

HS2 is primarily about capacity. The speed bit is secondary, and despite what you read, it was when the work really started in 2009. It also connects with existing track, which Maglev can't.

I think too that fast Maglev tends to be outside city centres.

Thanks Tubby, knew you'd have the reason
I like the look of the Hyperloop though

[HindleA]

Attempting to grow my own.