Saturday 28th & Sunday 29th January 2017

seeingclearly · Post by **seeingclearly** » Sun 29 Jan, 2017 9:39 am

Would like to thank HindleA for ongoing efforts to point in the direction of genuinely informative material.

BTW, H. did you see the raw statistics on death rates for the UK? If you have already posted, my apologies. Very concerning from 2013 on.

Edited to say, drawn from the office of statistics annual records, for some reason I cannot copy link or post, but if you have not seen them, they are there. Someone has made a table of the raw data, it shows a doubling of the death rate from 2013, a little more than that in Scotland NI and Wales, and has as yet not uncovered any data collection change that would account for it. Is asking whether anyone knows of any. But also asking about what social changes could have caused it. An open mind on this at present. Nevertheless the data is there.

NonOxCol · Post by **NonOxCol** » Sun 29 Jan, 2017 9:51 am

Hadley Freeman's Twitter feed has a Trump hot take from Tony Parsons. Has to be seen to be believed, really, even from the man who thought Josef Fritzl proved that Germany never came to terms with Nazism.

yahyah · Post by **yahyah** » Sun 29 Jan, 2017 9:55 am

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulation ... ables/2015" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulation ... ges/deaths" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

These links SeeingClearly ?

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Sun 29 Jan, 2017 9:57 am

NonOxCol wrote:The world according to Marr, apparently:

"The consensus is that Theresa May is on a roll."

Not making this up. See Twitter.

Yes. I had the misfortune to see it. Although it struck me that it was unconvincing. Rather like Donald Trump's, "It's all going very well" (or words to that effect). Andrew Marr, of course, went along with it without question.

seeingclearly · Post by **seeingclearly** » Sun 29 Jan, 2017 10:04 am

yahyah wrote:
These links SeeingClearly ?

I think so, yes. But the differences only emerge when you overlay the statistics from 2010 through to 2015. Up tp 2013 they are approximately half of what they are from 2013 onwards. As they are presented as annual statistics the difference is not visible. The individual whose post I read had taken all of those years, and had been surprised by the difference. I would like clarity myself as It is not something I would normally look at, and if they are significant then it is very worrying.

seeingclearly · Post by **seeingclearly** » Sun 29 Jan, 2017 10:07 am

Double post

yahyah · Post by **yahyah** » Sun 29 Jan, 2017 10:14 am

The ONS statistician quoted in the mortality reports has a twitter account.
If you don't tweet yourself it may be worth asking someone to tweet her your question SC ?

https://twitter.com/StatsLiz?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

NonOxCol · Post by **NonOxCol** » Sun 29 Jan, 2017 10:16 am

Oh. Just realised the link between my posts.

Parsons was on the Marr panel, praising May of course, and presented - without challenge - as a "lifelong Labour supporter".

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Sun 29 Jan, 2017 10:17 am

"President Trump’s ban on refugees and immigrants from certain countries is shameful and cruel.

The USA has a proud history of welcoming and resettling refugees. The President can’t just turn his back on this global crisis - all countries need to play their part.

While every country has the right to set its own immigration policies, this new policy flies in the face of the values of freedom and tolerance that the USA was built upon.

I’m pleased that the Prime Minister has now said she and the government do not agree with President Trump’s policy, which will affect many British citizens who have dual nationality, including Londoners born in countries affected by the ban.

I will work with the government on behalf of Londoners affected.

As a nation that, like the USA, values tolerance, diversity and freedom, we cannot just shrug our shoulders and say: ‘It’s not our problem’."

S.Kahn

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Sun 29 Jan, 2017 10:32 am

Some of Tony's articles,for those interested.

http://viz.co.uk/category/features/tony-parsehole/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Post by **PaulfromYorkshire** » Sun 29 Jan, 2017 10:33 am

Wow Corbyn and Umunna pretty much united in putting pressure on the Tories.

More please!

tinybgoat · Post by **tinybgoat** » Sun 29 Jan, 2017 10:36 am

SpinningHugo wrote:How many years of systemic over optimism are necessary to make some face up to reality.

It was a world view that was wrong but plausible in 2007. Now it looks daft.

"The answer my friend is blowin' in the wind
The answer is blowin' in the wind."

pk1 · Post by **pk1** » Sun 29 Jan, 2017 10:36 am

Caught Harriet Harman on Marr. Was never keen on John Prescott but to hear that on Hattie's election to Deputy Leader when asked if he would offer her help & advice, he (insert expletive here) refused !

Corbyn on Peston has confirmed that SC members voting against 3-line whip will be sacked & even worse, has said that even if Labour's tabled amendments are unsuccessful, he will instruct Labour MPs to vote for A50.

He has ridden roughshod over the agreed pro-EU policy. There is no more point to the Labour party.

Oh and just as a point of order on the subject of the media supposedly ignoring Labour - since coming back from the Xmas break, Corbyn has been on Marr, Sophy Ridge on Sunday & now Peston. McDonnell has been on Marr, Sophy Ridge on Sunday & that's before counting the appearances of Thornberry, Starmer & Abbott. This isn't a party ignored by the media.

Post by **PaulfromYorkshire** » Sun 29 Jan, 2017 10:42 am

pk1 wrote:Caught Harriet Harman on Marr. Was never keen on John Prescott but to hear that on Hattie's election to Deputy Leader when asked if he would offer her help & advice, he (insert expletive here) refused !

Corbyn on Peston has confirmed that SC members voting against 3-line whip will be sacked & even worse, has said that even if Labour's tabled amendments are unsuccessful, he will instruct Labour MPs to vote for A50.

He has ridden roughshod over the agreed pro-EU policy. There is no more point to the Labour party.

Oh and just as a point of order on the subject of the media supposedly ignoring Labour - since coming back from the Xmas break, Corbyn has been on Marr, Sophy Ridge on Sunday & now Peston. McDonnell has been on Marr, Sophy Ridge on Sunday & that's before counting the appearances of Thornberry, Starmer & Abbott. This isn't a party ignored by the media.

With respect pk no other than Chuka Umunna seemed to broadly support Corbyn's stance on Article 50. They are clearly focusing on the amendments, where they may be able to win, rather than the actual vote, where they will surely lose and also be, perhaps rightly, accused of going against the Referendum.

I came away from Peston with more hope than I've had for a while. There are some good solid issues here where May will come under enormous pressure, while she's already struggling with the State Visit fiasco.

pk1 · Post by **pk1** » Sun 29 Jan, 2017 10:58 am

Chuka mentioned his amendment to the Leave's campaign pledge of £350m to the NHS bollocks - do you seriously believe the amendment to force May into setting out a plan for making this happen will succeed ?

Of course it won't !

Interesting though that you were more impressed by Chuka than with Corbyn - on that point, I agree

tinyclanger2 · Post by **tinyclanger2** » Sun 29 Jan, 2017 10:59 am

language evolves - and with it ideas.

tinyclanger2 · Post by **tinyclanger2** » Sun 29 Jan, 2017 11:03 am

https://scholar.google.co.uk/scholar?q= ... as_sdt=0,5" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
52,000 references to collective narcissim.
I don't read it as excusing individual behaviour.
I see it as the current term for one possible angle for exploring the dramatic change (shift back to this time 100 years ago) that we are seeing in society just now.

Willow904 · Post by **Willow904** » Sun 29 Jan, 2017 11:05 am

https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/171928" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Petition
Prevent Donald Trump from making a State Visit to the United Kingdom.

It's worth a go, I guess, though TheresatheAppeaser will probably ignore it, at least it registers dissent.

Post by **PaulfromYorkshire** » Sun 29 Jan, 2017 11:09 am

pk1 wrote:Chuka mentioned his amendment to the Leave's campaign pledge of £350m to the NHS bollocks - do you seriously believe the amendment to force May into setting out a plan for making this happen will succeed ?

Of course it won't !

Interesting though that you were more impressed by Chuka than with Corbyn - on that point, I agree

I agree that one is more gimmicky, but it's a good gimmick. Surely Wollaston for example will have to rebel. And what a lovely opportunity to stick it to Boris for example. Either you lied, or you vote with Labour.

Willow904 · Post by **Willow904** » Sun 29 Jan, 2017 11:14 am

PaulfromYorkshire wrote:
pk1 wrote:Chuka mentioned his amendment to the Leave's campaign pledge of £350m to the NHS bollocks - do you seriously believe the amendment to force May into setting out a plan for making this happen will succeed ?

Of course it won't !

Interesting though that you were more impressed by Chuka than with Corbyn - on that point, I agree
I agree that one is more gimmicky, but it's a good gimmick. Surely Wollaston for example will have to rebel. And what a lovely opportunity to stick it to Boris for example. Either you lied, or you vote with Labour.

This is an angle 38degrees has been following, trying to hold the leave campaign to account and by taking them at face value and demanding they fulfill their promises they are taking a stand against outright lies in politics, which is worthwhile, I think.

tinyclanger2 · Post by **tinyclanger2** » Sun 29 Jan, 2017 11:37 am

Modern Britain: will spend money on deterring homeless people from sleeping on a flat surface, but not on providing them with somewhere safe to sleep.

If you're homeless in Britain, it seems that you deserve sleep deprivation and starvation (cf: Westminster Council outlawing giving food away).

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/ho ... 51136.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

RogerOThornhill · Post by **RogerOThornhill** » Sun 29 Jan, 2017 11:44 am

This is worth a read...

" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Sun 29 Jan, 2017 11:44 am

The Independent (@Independent)

Department of Homeland Security vows to enforce Donald Trump's travel bans, despite court order https://t.co/w35bLryjyb" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
January 29, 2017 (Guardian live blog)

UKIP also in full flow.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/liv ... s-airports

Apologies - a belated good morfternoon.

Willow904 · Post by **Willow904** » Sun 29 Jan, 2017 11:46 am

https://mainlymacro.blogspot.co.uk/2017 ... n-mps.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Why voting for Article 50 may ruin an MP's career
The last time I did something like this was to urge Labour party members to vote for Smith rather than Corbyn, knowing full well that Corbyn was almost certain to win. Being proved right on that occasion is no consolation, because I would rather have been wrong. This is even more futile, but now as then I feel a decision is about to be made that is both disastrous and irreversible.[1] I also want to say something about the longer term interests of MPs that I have not seen said elsewhere.

howsillyofme1 has argued very eloquently why Labour voters shouldn't hold voting for article 50 against Corbyn, but people are emotional as well as logical and some of them surely will. I don't have any idea how many will, I make no predictions, but Simon Wren-Lewis here goes over some of the reasons why Corbyn's stance is a gamble, not a dead cert "right thing to do". I still feel very strongly that if Corbyn had argued passionately for staying in the single market from the start, there would be more trust in him now from remain voters. That was mistake no 1. Mistake no 2 was offering Theresa May a blank cheque from a very early point in time. Clive Lewis' approach was sound, intimating Labour would only vote for article 50 if amendments were won. There is risk in this approach, I admit, but the likelihood is that at least some amendments would have passed and Labour could have voted for article 50 on this basis with far more support from remain voters. The hard choice of voting down (or supporting) an unamended article 50 that gives Theresa May carte blanche to take us out of the single market need never have been faced. Corbyn, however, has made it clear he would vote for article 50 on this completely unacceptable (to many) basis, and will face the inevitable backlash from remain voters, without ever having to do so. These are mistakes in part made by an inexperienced politician, but they are also the positions one would expect from someone who is not at all bothered if we leave the single market and I would suggest that it is the latter that has most eroded Corbyn's support among some Labour members and supporters.

Willow904 · Post by **Willow904** » Sun 29 Jan, 2017 12:04 pm

The petition to prevent Donald Trump making an official state visit and being received by the Queen, which appears to have been launched when he was voted President, is today climbing rapidly with something like 20,000 signatures in the last hour or so. Should easily reach 100,000 by the end of the day at current rate.

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Sun 29 Jan, 2017 12:07 pm

Eric_WLothian wrote:
Willow904 wrote:
tinyclanger2 wrote:Am, let's say, "disappointed" to discover that having a different view from a bigoted idiot renders me "sneering".
They have no idea how this is coming across, do they?
In support terms, it seems weird (to me) that the LP are chasing a portion of the 17M votes that are already mostly pledged to UKIP & Tories, when they could be chasing a far larger portion of 16M votes.
(Unless they genuinely believe that Brexit will in some way benefit the UK of course).

(cJA bold)

Hear hear

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Sun 29 Jan, 2017 12:08 pm

Good-afternoon, everyone.

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Sun 29 Jan, 2017 12:15 pm

Well done Roger F.

RogerOThornhill · Post by **RogerOThornhill** » Sun 29 Jan, 2017 12:18 pm

HindleA wrote:Well done Roger F.

Amazing - didn't see him being able to win another title.

yahyah · Post by **yahyah** » Sun 29 Jan, 2017 12:25 pm

Telling voters, Remainers or others, what they should think using one's own logic or view, isn't usually successful is it ? 'Emotional' was a word used in the past to enforce the idea women should not be eligible to vote. Anyone who thinks they are operating completely outside of the effect of emotion must be a robot.

Willow904 · Post by **Willow904** » Sun 29 Jan, 2017 12:46 pm

Donald Trump petition is now over 100,000 signatures.

https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/171928" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

It will now be considered for debate by parliament. I'll copy and paste the result when I get it.

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Sun 29 Jan, 2017 12:57 pm

"“I am a British citizen who has lived in America for the past six years - working hard, contributing to society, paying my taxes and bringing up our four children in the place they now call home.

“Now, me and many others like me are being told that we may not be welcome.

“It’s deeply troubling that I will have to tell my children that daddy might not be able to come home - to explain why the president has introduced a policy that comes from a place of ignorance and prejudice.

“I was welcomed into Britain from Somalia at eight years old and given the chance to succeed and realise my dreams.

“I have been proud to represent my country, win medals for the British people and receive the greatest honour of a knighthood.

“My story is an example of what can happen when you follow polices of compassion and understanding, not hate and isolation.”

RogerOThornhill · Post by **RogerOThornhill** » Sun 29 Jan, 2017 12:59 pm

Elsewhere this has been attracting some attention on that Twitter. And yes, it's that school again...

School Detention Director, Brent

https://www.tes.com/jobs/vacancy/school ... ent-461301

We want someone who will analyse data, organise detentions, line-manage staff, be a sergeant major in the detention room, ring parents, be extremely efficient with time and paperwork, have heart-to-heart conversations with pupils and be inspirational.

You do not need any experience, but must be willing to learn on the job. You will need reasonable spoken English, but your written English does not have to be excellent. You must also be hard-working, willing to get stuck in and own the job like it is the most important thing in the world to you.

A full time post? To me it just seems excessive but maybe they hand out detention like confetti. And calling it a "Director" is just silly - but hen this is the school that renamed Teaching assistants "Teaching Fellows"...

pk1 · Post by **pk1** » Sun 29 Jan, 2017 12:59 pm

Excerpt from article in the Sunday Times

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Sun 29 Jan, 2017 1:04 pm

yahyah wrote:Wonder if JA's out and about in Stoke today ?

No, I wasn't. Mr citizen is doing a great job for Labour in Stoke. The Labour candidate, Gareth Snell, is good. A lot of good Labour people in Stoke. It's complicated, why I'm not out and about.

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Sun 29 Jan, 2017 1:08 pm

Willow904 wrote:Donald Trump petition is now over 100,000 signatures.

https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/171928" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

It will now be considered for debate by parliament. I'll copy and paste the result when I get it.

Does that now mean that No 10 has to issue a revision to this:

Number 10 have insisted that Trump’s state visit in the summer will go ahead despite growing calls for it to be cancelled in light of his travel ban for people for several muslim majority countries.

?

Whichever way the vote goes, it's all an embarrassment for Theresa May.

(And as an aside - I'm reading that Donald Trump has said that he doesn't want to meet Charlie Boy (on account of their differences on environmental issues). I didn't realise that state visits were now an à la carte job.)

Edited - tidy up

yahyah · Post by **yahyah** » Sun 29 Jan, 2017 1:11 pm

@JA Did you see the pic of Corbyn, his wife, and Ruth Smeeth eating oat cakes in a cafe ?
Not strictly baked goods, but nearly.

Post by **PaulfromYorkshire** » Sun 29 Jan, 2017 1:13 pm

This isn't going to be a popular posts here, but I've just been reading about Labour's proposed amendments and I realised the central importance of committing to Article 50. It gives Labour's amendments very much more force by removing the "you're only doing it to stop Brexit" argument.

We want impediment free access to the Single Market then means just that, not Remain by stealth. It stops the argument being Leave vs. Remain and moves it instead onto the merits of the Single Market.

Post by **PaulfromYorkshire** » Sun 29 Jan, 2017 1:15 pm

pk1 wrote:Excerpt from article in the Sunday Times

So why doesn't she just throw her weight behind the single market amendment. There's a chance it might be accepted!

yahyah · Post by **yahyah** » Sun 29 Jan, 2017 1:24 pm

Where have you been reading about it Paul ?

yahyah · Post by **yahyah** » Sun 29 Jan, 2017 1:26 pm

Carwyn Jones' statement on Trump.
https://twitter.com/fmwales" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Good to hear Corbyn, Farron and other leaders in agreement on postponing/cancelling the state visit.

seeingclearly · Post by **seeingclearly** » Sun 29 Jan, 2017 1:28 pm

tinyclanger2 wrote:https://scholar.google.co.uk/scholar?q= ... as_sdt=0,5
52,000 references to collective narcissim.
I don't read it as excusing individual behaviour.
I see it as the current term for one possible angle for exploring the dramatic change (shift back to this time 100 years ago) that we are seeing in society just now.

You confirm the point I made about how things pass into common usage. Language is not benign. These days it is used to promote some pretty odd ideas. The fifty two thousand references does not impress, it means that rather than being a social definition that brings clarity, it is something that will be used against groups. I have experienced narcissism at first hand, ; collective narcissism, why not just call it by a simpler definition, long used and understood, collective madness, people are different their reasoning might be faulty but their motivations diverse? We have hundreds of instances of that, possibly thousands, going back through time.To me the current times are no different.

But of course everyone is free to help themselves to words, and choose what they want. The point is does it actually help. The selfish individualism of the last few decades is decaying into highly polarised positions, yet what we need is to have strong individuals with broad understanding and a sense of responsibility. Snd some kind of way to express their views outside of the inevitable epithets. It is akin to loonie left, rabid right but can be applied by any definable group by any other group, and sounds posher.

Also not to undermine anyone for using it, but to point out the dangers.

In my personal life I am more likely to call the purveyors of damaging ideologies fascist bastards, and their followers gullible. Not so polite, I know. At least in time most gullibity is curable, narcissism isn't, and these often large swathes of people are our fellow human beings being led down blind alleys.

Willow904 · Post by **Willow904** » Sun 29 Jan, 2017 1:30 pm

PorFavor wrote:
Willow904 wrote:Donald Trump petition is now over 100,000 signatures.

https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/171928" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

It will now be considered for debate by parliament. I'll copy and paste the result when I get it.

Does that now mean that No 10 has to issue a revision to this:

Number 10 have insisted that Trump’s state visit in the summer will go ahead despite growing calls for it to be cancelled in light of his travel ban for people for several muslim majority countries.
?

Whichever way the vote goes, it's all an embarrassment for Theresa May.

(And as an aside - I'm reading that Donald Trump has said that he doesn't want to meet Charlie Boy (on account of their differences on environmental issues). I didn't realise that state visits were now an à la carte job).

Edited - tidy up

It means it will be considered for debate. If it's not chosen for debate, there has to be at least some kind of stab at a justification, which is why I said I would post the response when I get it

The petition is still growing. I doubt May will be shaken from her resolve to welcome Trump with open arms, but I'm hoping if an impressive enough number sign it, it might just make international news and the rest of the world will at least see that the rest of the country is slightly less keen on Trump than our PM.

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Sun 29 Jan, 2017 1:41 pm

Willow904 wrote:
PorFavor wrote:
Willow904 wrote:Donald Trump petition is now over 100,000 signatures.

https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/171928" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

It will now be considered for debate by parliament. I'll copy and paste the result when I get it.

Does that now mean that No 10 has to issue a revision to this:

Number 10 have insisted that Trump’s state visit in the summer will go ahead despite growing calls for it to be cancelled in light of his travel ban for people for several muslim majority countries.
?

Whichever way the vote goes, it's all an embarrassment for Theresa May.

(And as an aside - I'm reading that Donald Trump has said that he doesn't want to meet Charlie Boy (on account of their differences on environmental issues). I didn't realise that state visits were now an à la carte job).

Edited - tidy up
It means it will be considered for debate. If it's not chosen for debate, there has to be at least some kind of stab at a justification, which is why I said I would post the response when I get it

The petition is still growing. I doubt May will be shaken from her resolve to welcome Trump with open arms, but I'm hoping if an impressive enough number sign it, it might just make international news and the rest of the world will at least see that the rest of the country is slightly less keen on Trump than our PM.

Thanks for the reply. I just thought that, in the light of the size of the petition, No 10's words should be tweaked. Otherwise they suggest that the petition has either already been ruled out for debate or that, if it does go to debate, any adverse (for the government) outcome will be disregarded and they'll plough on.

Post by **PaulfromYorkshire** » Sun 29 Jan, 2017 1:47 pm

yahyah wrote:Where have you been reading about it Paul ?

Here yahyah

http://press.labour.org.uk/post/1564045 ... article-50" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Hardly unbiased presentation. But I found it useful.

I really want to be optimistic about these amendments. You'd hope Starmer would have an idea or two about how to word them well!

yahyah · Post by **yahyah** » Sun 29 Jan, 2017 1:50 pm

Thanks.

Post by **PaulfromYorkshire** » Sun 29 Jan, 2017 1:53 pm

More prosaically I now have a nervous couple of hours while Leeds play non-league Sutton in the FA Cup :-s

SpinningHugo · Post by **SpinningHugo** » Sun 29 Jan, 2017 1:55 pm

PaulfromYorkshire wrote:This isn't going to be a popular posts here, but I've just been reading about Labour's proposed amendments and I realised the central importance of committing to Article 50. It gives Labour's amendments very much more force by removing the "you're only doing it to stop Brexit" argument.

We want impediment free access to the Single Market then means just that, not Remain by stealth. It stops the argument being Leave vs. Remain and moves it instead onto the merits of the Single Market.

Labour's commitment to vote for Art 50 regardless of whether any of its amendments pass guarantees that none of them will. The government doesn't need to make any concessions secure in the knowledge that the opposition will back it come what may.

Labour's policy is identical to the Tories.

I think that Labour and the Tories have got this wrong. The SNP, PC, Lib Dems and Greens are right.

Post by **PaulfromYorkshire** » Sun 29 Jan, 2017 1:58 pm

SpinningHugo wrote:
PaulfromYorkshire wrote:This isn't going to be a popular posts here, but I've just been reading about Labour's proposed amendments and I realised the central importance of committing to Article 50. It gives Labour's amendments very much more force by removing the "you're only doing it to stop Brexit" argument.

We want impediment free access to the Single Market then means just that, not Remain by stealth. It stops the argument being Leave vs. Remain and moves it instead onto the merits of the Single Market.

Labour's commitment to vote for Art 50 regardless of whether any of its amendments pass guarantees that none of them will. The government doesn't need to make any concessions secure in the knowledge that the opposition will back it come what may.

Labour's policy is identical to the Tories.

I think that Labour and the Tories have got this wrong. The SNP, PC, Lib Dems and Greens are right.

We shall see

tinyclanger2 · Post by **tinyclanger2** » Sun 29 Jan, 2017 1:59 pm

many words - but I'm yet to understand the point.