Tuesday, 18th April 2017

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Tue 18 Apr, 2017 8:09 am

Good morfternoon.

NonOxCol · Post by **NonOxCol** » Tue 18 Apr, 2017 8:36 am

Morning.

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Thread combining Brexit xenophobia with state of the NHS, just to cheer everyone up after Easter...

Bonnylad · Post by **Bonnylad** » Tue 18 Apr, 2017 8:40 am

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... -fisheries" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

NonOxCol · Post by **NonOxCol** » Tue 18 Apr, 2017 9:50 am

This man is standing as a Tory MP again in 2020 apparently.

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HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Tue 18 Apr, 2017 9:56 am

Where's the money coming from cry those that happily spent a fair few years worth in failing attempt to specifically to continue to include CA in the cap and shortly,despite SC loss in like a spoilt child DWP further pissing away in attempts to deny in continued court action.

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Tue 18 Apr, 2017 9:57 am

09:54
Theresa May to make statement in Downing Street at 11.15

The BBC’s Laura Kuenssberg has tweeted this.

Laura Kuenssberg (@bbclaurak)

PM making a statement in Downing Street at 1115 - only normally used for most serious moments
April 18, 2017

(Politics Live, Guardian)

RogerOThornhill · Post by **RogerOThornhill** » Tue 18 Apr, 2017 10:07 am

PorFavor wrote:
09:54
Theresa May to make statement in Downing Street at 11.15

The BBC’s Laura Kuenssberg has tweeted this.

Laura Kuenssberg (@bbclaurak)

PM making a statement in Downing Street at 1115 - only normally used for most serious moments
April 18, 2017

(Politics Live, Guardian)

"I have decided that to give us a clear mandate for change I am calling a General Election"
"But Prime Minister we have a Fixed Term Parliament"
"We do? Damn. Sorry everyone, off you go then"

RogerOThornhill · Post by **RogerOThornhill** » Tue 18 Apr, 2017 10:13 am

So...either:

1. Quick repeal of the Fixed term parliament Act or
2. Have her own backbenchers vote against her government to force the election.

Post by **PaulfromYorkshire** » Tue 18 Apr, 2017 10:17 am

I haven't been following Northern Ireland closely, but there has been talk about returning to direct rule.

Anyway, I guess we may as well just wait and see.....

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Tue 18 Apr, 2017 10:18 am

https://mainlymacro.blogspot.co.uk/2017 ... verty.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Inequality or poverty
Mainlymacro

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Tue 18 Apr, 2017 10:19 am

Vote Norris

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Tue 18 Apr, 2017 10:21 am

HindleA wrote:Vote Norris

I hear Ena will stand against him, though.

RogerOThornhill · Post by **RogerOThornhill** » Tue 18 Apr, 2017 10:24 am

PaulfromYorkshire wrote:I haven't been following Northern Ireland closely, but there has been talk about returning to direct rule.

Anyway, I guess we may as well just wait and see.....

Yes, that's more likely.

FTPA needs 2/3rds majority to overturn i.e. needing Labour support*, and would make the Tories look slightly ridiculous given that they only legislated for it in the last Parliament.

* anti-Corbynites might well go for it to oust him early after a crushing defeat and make a route back to power far quicker than leaving it until after 2020.

RogerOThornhill · Post by **RogerOThornhill** » Tue 18 Apr, 2017 10:28 am

gilsey · Post by **gilsey** » Tue 18 Apr, 2017 10:29 am

RogerOThornhill wrote: FTPA needs 2/3rds majority to overturn i.e. needing Labour support*, and would make the Tories look ~~slightly~~ ridiculous given that they only legislated for it in the last Parliament.

FTFY

Temulkar · Post by **Temulkar** » Tue 18 Apr, 2017 10:35 am

I cant think why she would call a GE before the boundary changes, and whilst she has corbyn where she wants him. TM is not a gambler, so if she is calling a GE, something horrid that could bring down the govt is on the horizon and she heeds a bigger majority.

gilsey · Post by **gilsey** » Tue 18 Apr, 2017 10:51 am

Carl Gardner is your man on the FTPA.
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RogerOThornhill · Post by **RogerOThornhill** » Tue 18 Apr, 2017 10:59 am

Jo Maugham wonders about resignation due to ill-health.

Which could be "ill-health" as in "Sick of this, I'm surrounded by clowns so I'm off"

Willow904 · Post by **Willow904** » Tue 18 Apr, 2017 11:01 am

HindleA wrote:https://mainlymacro.blogspot.co.uk/2017 ... verty.html

Inequality or poverty
Mainlymacro

Really good explanation of what happened under Thatcher and Reagan and how poisonous it still is to the function of productive capitalism.

I still feel Brexit is at least partially about protecting UK dependent tax havens from EU scrutiny. Which is why I feel Labour should support continued membership of the single market and help the EU shine a light on their activities, rather than support a withdrawal from close co-operation.

Willow904 · Post by **Willow904** » Tue 18 Apr, 2017 11:08 am

RogerOThornhill wrote:Jo Maugham wonders about resignation due to ill-health.

Which could be "ill-health" as in "Sick of this, I'm surrounded by clowns so I'm off"

Ummm....

Turn on the TV. She's never looked healthier.

GE it is, then.

RogerOThornhill · Post by **RogerOThornhill** » Tue 18 Apr, 2017 11:10 am

So it's GE because all of our opponents on Brexit are utter bastards and we can't cope with it.

Willow904 · Post by **Willow904** » Tue 18 Apr, 2017 11:11 am

June 8th.

With France and Germany also occupied with elections, it possibly doesn't cost too much in terms of negotiations, which the civil service can continue to prepare for.

Corbyn has said he'd vote for an election. Anyone think May could fail to get one? Or is she right to be confident?

StephenDolan · Post by **StephenDolan** » Tue 18 Apr, 2017 11:12 am

Well then. Things just got really interesting.

NonOxCol · Post by **NonOxCol** » Tue 18 Apr, 2017 11:14 am

Well, this is going to make the anti-Miliband stuff in the press look like a teddy bear's picnic. A worse Labour leader, who might as well have a "kick me" sign on his rear end, and a more bellicose, patriotic, Brexit-embracing Tory.

One party state then, just as predicted.

StephenDolan · Post by **StephenDolan** » Tue 18 Apr, 2017 11:18 am

I wonder how the various warchests are stocked up?

How does this impact on the Brexit negotiations btw?

RogerOThornhill · Post by **RogerOThornhill** » Tue 18 Apr, 2017 11:23 am

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and

Richard Adams‏Verified account @RichardA 1m1 minute ago
More
Replying to @RichardA
But: grammar schools policy gets put in the Conservative manifesto. Then the Lords can't fight it, post-election.

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Tue 18 Apr, 2017 11:24 am

Good-morning, everyone.

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Tue 18 Apr, 2017 11:25 am

NonOxCol wrote:Well, this is going to make the anti-Miliband stuff in the press look like a teddy bear's picnic. A worse Labour leader, who might as well have a "kick me" sign on his rear end, and a more bellicose, patriotic, Brexit-embracing Tory.

One party state then, just as predicted.

Vote Labour or it's Tory 'Brexit'

TechnicalEphemera · Post by **TechnicalEphemera** » Tue 18 Apr, 2017 11:25 am

StephenDolan wrote:I wonder how the various warchests are stocked up?

How does this impact on the Brexit negotiations btw?

Labour have cash.

Dream result, Corbyn hammered on 4th May (a certainty), snap resignation, unopposed unity candidate (Starmer), knife fight in June.

Most likely utter and total Corbyn meltdown in June, Tory majority 140.

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Tue 18 Apr, 2017 11:26 am

https://makingrightsmakesense.wordpress ... uld-do-it/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Care crisis, what crisis? £10 a week should do it….

"Care and support needs to be recognized as part of the public infrastructure, linking together goals of health and wellbeing, increasing employment, promoting good family life and stronger communities. , it needs to be viewed not as a cost, but as an investment. Until then the crisis will not be averted, it will just continue to be ignored."

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Tue 18 Apr, 2017 11:27 am

Assuming that this all goes to Theresa May's plan, I'm afraid that any vestige of hope I might have entertained that Jeremy Corbyn would be gone before the next General Election has just gone up in smoke.

Willow904 · Post by **Willow904** » Tue 18 Apr, 2017 11:32 am

Here is Tim Farron, the Lib Dem leader, on the announcement.

This election is your chance to change the direction of our country.

If you want to avoid a disastrous hard Brexit. If you want to keep Britain in the single market. If you want a Britain that is open, tolerant and united, this is your chance.

Only the Liberal Democrats can prevent a Conservative majority.

Tim Farron was doing well there until he got to the last line. Utter nonsense. The Libdems might be able to take some seats back from the Tories but they need a strong showing from Labour to prevent a Conservative majority.

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Tue 18 Apr, 2017 11:34 am

NonOxCol wrote:Well, this is going to make the anti-Miliband stuff in the press look like a teddy bear's picnic. A worse Labour leader, who might as well have a "kick me" sign on his rear end, and a more bellicose, patriotic, Brexit-embracing Tory.

One party state then, just as predicted.

I encourage us all to remember it's not over 'til the polls close on 8 June 2017
When is the last day to register to vote in this GE?

howsillyofme1 · Post by **howsillyofme1** » Tue 18 Apr, 2017 11:34 am

Hi

Well well well

A real threat of a huge Tory majority or an opportunity to stop all this nonsense

Shows how things can change quickly

I assume everyone will either be voting Labour or tactically anti-Tory in June.....it is difficult to tell on here sometimes

One thing is certain we are going to see the vilest campaign ever run by the right....

Time to put aside the differences and give these bastards a bloody nose

Temulkar · Post by **Temulkar** » Tue 18 Apr, 2017 11:35 am

Well, I think its a pointless gamble by May which could easily backfire.

StephenDolan · Post by **StephenDolan** » Tue 18 Apr, 2017 11:35 am

Willow904 wrote:
Here is Tim Farron, the Lib Dem leader, on the announcement.

This election is your chance to change the direction of our country.

If you want to avoid a disastrous hard Brexit. If you want to keep Britain in the single market. If you want a Britain that is open, tolerant and united, this is your chance.

Only the Liberal Democrats can prevent a Conservative majority.
Tim Farron was doing well there until he got to the last line. Utter nonsense. The Libdems might be able to take some seats back from the Tories but they need a strong showing from Labour to prevent a Conservative majority.

Lib Dems will have the largest percentage gain though.

gilsey · Post by **gilsey** » Tue 18 Apr, 2017 11:35 am

Too many people won't vote at all.

howsillyofme1 · Post by **howsillyofme1** » Tue 18 Apr, 2017 11:38 am

Time for those who are not Tories to work together

That comment by Farron is not helpful.....

Would a pact in the South with the LD help?

I know, I know - feel sick suggesting it but a May-led right wing Tory party large majority is a vile thought

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Tue 18 Apr, 2017 11:38 am

Willow904 wrote:
Here is Tim Farron, the Lib Dem leader, on the announcement.

This election is your chance to change the direction of our country.
If you want to avoid a disastrous hard Brexit. If you want to keep Britain in the single market. If you want a Britain that is open, tolerant and united, this is your chance.
Only the Liberal Democrats can prevent a Conservative majority.
Tim Farron was doing well there until he got to the last line. Utter nonsense. The Libdems might be able to take some seats back from the Tories but they need a strong showing from Labour to prevent a Conservative majority.

Agreed.

TechnicalEphemera · Post by **TechnicalEphemera** » Tue 18 Apr, 2017 11:38 am

PorFavor wrote:Assuming that this all goes to Theresa May's plan, I'm afraid that any vestige of hope I might have entertained that Jeremy Corbyn would be gone before the next General Election has just gone up in smoke.

There is still time for him to do the honourable thing and resign before then. The PLP would find a decent candidate, utter doom concentrates the mind. Corbyn can avoid going down in history as the worst Labour leader ever.

StephenDolan · Post by **StephenDolan** » Tue 18 Apr, 2017 11:41 am

TechnicalEphemera wrote:
PorFavor wrote:Assuming that this all goes to Theresa May's plan, I'm afraid that any vestige of hope I might have entertained that Jeremy Corbyn would be gone before the next General Election has just gone up in smoke.
There is still time for him to do the honourable thing and resign before then. The PLP would find a decent candidate, utter doom concentrates the mind. Corbyn can avoid going down in history as the worst Labour leader ever.

Dreaming there I'm afraid.

Willow904 · Post by **Willow904** » Tue 18 Apr, 2017 11:42 am

HindleA wrote:https://makingrightsmakesense.wordpress ... uld-do-it/

Care crisis, what crisis? £10 a week should do it….

"Care and support needs to be recognized as part of the public infrastructure, linking together goals of health and wellbeing, increasing employment, promoting good family life and stronger communities. , it needs to be viewed not as a cost, but as an investment. Until then the crisis will not be averted, it will just continue to be ignored."

Social care was pretty high up the agenda, with the Dilnott report. I really couldn't believe how easily the Tories were able to jettison their manifesto promises once they won their majority. Now with Brexit it's hard to see how to get it back to centre stage, but I'd definitely like to see something concrete from Labour on this in preference to blank cheques for the triple lock, which, with rising inflation, will hoover up money that could be spent more effectively elsewhere.

Temulkar · Post by **Temulkar** » Tue 18 Apr, 2017 11:44 am

howsillyofme1 wrote:Hi

Well well well

A real threat of a huge Tory majority or an opportunity to stop all this nonsense

Shows how things can change quickly

I assume everyone will either be voting Labour or tactically anti-Tory in June.....it is difficult to tell on here sometimes

One thing is certain we are going to see the vilest campaign ever run by the right....

Time to put aside the differences and give these bastards a bloody nose

Ahem,

I shall be voting Green. But yes, its going to be vile, Corbyn is goinng to have more knives in his back by the end of the campaign than Caligula.

The polls will harrow with purdah, though, and the lib dems are going to win seats in lib/tory marginals - may's sure thing landslide may come back to bite her...

What Im going to be watching with interest is claims of Putinbot/russian influence if Labour do better than is assumed by the bitterite commentariat.

NonOxCol · Post by **NonOxCol** » Tue 18 Apr, 2017 11:45 am

And unelected members of the House of Lords have vowed to fight us every step of the way.

Should I not be worried that the PM saw fit to include this in her statement?

TechnicalEphemera · Post by **TechnicalEphemera** » Tue 18 Apr, 2017 11:46 am

howsillyofme1 wrote:Time for those who are not Tories to work together

That comment by Farron is not helpful.....

Would a pact in the South with the LD help?

I know, I know - feel sick suggesting it but a May-led right wing Tory party large majority is a vile thought

The Tories can run a vote Farron get Corbyn campaign if there is a pact. Besides Labour voters in the South will mostly vote Lib Dem where they haven't got a sitting Labour MP.

Realistically the challenge is avoiding wipeout in the Midlands and bits of the Labour heartlands.

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Tue 18 Apr, 2017 11:46 am

Willow904 wrote:June 8th.

With France and Germany also occupied with elections, it possibly doesn't cost too much in terms of negotiations, which the civil service can continue to prepare for.

Corbyn has said he'd vote for an election. Anyone think May could fail to get one? Or is she right to be confident?

"Corbyn confirms Labour will vote for early election"

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/bl ... ec04f02028" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

TechnicalEphemera · Post by **TechnicalEphemera** » Tue 18 Apr, 2017 11:48 am

StephenDolan wrote:
TechnicalEphemera wrote:
PorFavor wrote:Assuming that this all goes to Theresa May's plan, I'm afraid that any vestige of hope I might have entertained that Jeremy Corbyn would be gone before the next General Election has just gone up in smoke.
There is still time for him to do the honourable thing and resign before then. The PLP would find a decent candidate, utter doom concentrates the mind. Corbyn can avoid going down in history as the worst Labour leader ever.
Dreaming there I'm afraid.

Yes highly likely. I continually live in hope this supposed man of principles has a shred of decency. One day I hope he will surprise me.

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Tue 18 Apr, 2017 11:49 am

NonOxCol wrote:
And unelected members of the House of Lords have vowed to fight us every step of the way.
Should I not be worried that the PM saw fit to include this in her statement?

Sounds like she's been talking with the Donald, I think

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Tue 18 Apr, 2017 11:51 am

Temulkar wrote:Well, I think its a pointless gamble by May which could easily backfire.

Me too

TechnicalEphemera · Post by **TechnicalEphemera** » Tue 18 Apr, 2017 11:54 am

citizenJA wrote:
Willow904 wrote:June 8th.

With France and Germany also occupied with elections, it possibly doesn't cost too much in terms of negotiations, which the civil service can continue to prepare for.

Corbyn has said he'd vote for an election. Anyone think May could fail to get one? Or is she right to be confident?
"Corbyn confirms Labour will vote for early election"

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/bl ... ec04f02028" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Well there you have it, conclusive and final proof that Turkeys will vote for Christmas.

At least try and make it difficult for her. Running a no confidence vote in her own government would have been funny.