Saturday 22nd & Sunday 23rd April 2017
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Re: Saturday 22nd & Sunday 23rd April 2017
https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... t-closures" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
BHS crash sets trend for a chain of closures on UK high streets
BHS crash sets trend for a chain of closures on UK high streets
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Re: Saturday 22nd & Sunday 23rd April 2017
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/201 ... gland-rare" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Rare parchment manuscript of US Declaration of Independence found in England
Rare parchment manuscript of US Declaration of Independence found in England
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Re: Saturday 22nd & Sunday 23rd April 2017
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/201 ... orth-korea" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Mike Pence in Australia says US and allies ready to tackle North Korea
Mike Pence in Australia says US and allies ready to tackle North Korea
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Re: Saturday 22nd & Sunday 23rd April 2017
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Tiangong-2: China's first cargo spacecraft docks with orbiting space lab
Tiangong-2: China's first cargo spacecraft docks with orbiting space lab
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Re: Saturday 22nd & Sunday 23rd April 2017
Not hard to see why, traditional retail chain stores increasingly look like they have had their day. Even clothing, which you would expect to be more high street friendly seems to be suffering.HindleA wrote:https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... t-closures
BHS crash sets trend for a chain of closures on UK high streets
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Re: Saturday 22nd & Sunday 23rd April 2017
I think that is peak Tory, and I think both are overstated. Fieldwork on 19th-20th Lets ssee hat things look like after a week of campaigning. It really has not gone well for Theresa May. Dissapointing green scores too, but we could get squeezed by the libdem resurgence.
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Re: Saturday 22nd & Sunday 23rd April 2017
FWIW our BHS now TJHughes,personally I have an aversion to shopping unnecessarilly and would be quite happy never to buy any more clothes again,not that I ever had,luckilly others do/have done.I don't call it scruffygititis but extreme lack of vanity at least as far as appearance goes.
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Re: Saturday 22nd & Sunday 23rd April 2017
This is going to be a theme I suspect. However Labour Eoin assures me there will be a Labour majority of 100.SpinningHugo wrote:CON: 45% (+7)
LAB: 26% (-3)
LDEM: 11% (+4)
UKIP: 9% (-5)
GRN: 3% (-2)
(via Opinium / 19 - 20 Apr)
Truth somewhere between the two i expect. No way the Tories are on 50%
The interesting thing in those polls is that the Lib Dems have added 50% to their vote in one and are flatlining in the other.
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Re: Saturday 22nd & Sunday 23rd April 2017
Fairly obvious too that Opinium have changed their methodology so that they can "herd" with the others.
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Re: Saturday 22nd & Sunday 23rd April 2017
Presumably just as soon as they have worked out how to teleport battle fleets around the world in response to Donald Trump's random threatening tweets.HindleA wrote:https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/201 ... orth-korea
Mike Pence in Australia says US and allies ready to tackle North Korea
I was struck by this line in the article.
So we can now desire modes of war. How about one where everybody has to use water pistols?North Korea’s deputy UN ambassador Kim In-ryong this week said “if the US dare opt for a military action”, North Korea was “ready to react to any mode of war desired by the US”.
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Re: Saturday 22nd & Sunday 23rd April 2017
Maybe, or maybe sampling error in their previous poll.AnatolyKasparov wrote:Fairly obvious too that Opinium have changed their methodology so that they can "herd" with the others.
One interesting sanity check will arrive in the locals (not sure I remember locals before a general election before, but it must have happened). There is a reasonably established methodology for adjusting locals with the old National Equivalent Vote thingy. So if the polls are massively out there should be a clue.
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Re: Saturday 22nd & Sunday 23rd April 2017
Polling really is all over the place...
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MAIL ON SUNDAY: Tory lead slashed in half after tax U-Turn #tomorrowspaperstoday
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Re: Saturday 22nd & Sunday 23rd April 2017
I'm basing that supposition on UKIP and the LibDems effectively swapping places more than the Tory lead, tbh.TechnicalEphemera wrote:Maybe, or maybe sampling error in their previous pollAnatolyKasparov wrote:Fairly obvious too that Opinium have changed their methodology so that they can "herd" with the others.
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Re: Saturday 22nd & Sunday 23rd April 2017
Any goodwill that Toby Young had (not that much) with edu tweeters is rapidly disappearing...
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A peerage beckons I reckon...Toby YoungVerified account
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Replying to @FCDWhittaker @TheIFS
I dunno. Don't think most parents will be up in arms about cuts to their schools. It's an imaginary crisis.
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Re: Saturday 22nd & Sunday 23rd April 2017
RogerOThornhill wrote:Polling really is all over the place...
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MAIL ON SUNDAY: Tory lead slashed in half after tax U-Turn #tomorrowspaperstoday
Indeed.
Are the Tories 25 points ahead or just 10?
So tense!
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Re: Saturday 22nd & Sunday 23rd April 2017
Well, that is a not insignificant difference. At all.
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Re: Saturday 22nd & Sunday 23rd April 2017
Happened in 2005 last i think.TechnicalEphemera wrote:Maybe, or maybe sampling error in their previous poll.AnatolyKasparov wrote:Fairly obvious too that Opinium have changed their methodology so that they can "herd" with the others.
One interesting sanity check will arrive in the locals (not sure I remember locals before a general election before, but it must have happened). There is a reasonably established methodology for adjusting locals with the old National Equivalent Vote thingy. So if the polls are massively out there should be a clue.
Turned out to be a poor guide.
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Re: Saturday 22nd & Sunday 23rd April 2017
Your sarcasm might have more impact if your own chosen party had more than a percentage that could be lost in the rounding...
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Re: Saturday 22nd & Sunday 23rd April 2017
Rare response,up your arse with knobs up,tit.
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Re: Saturday 22nd & Sunday 23rd April 2017
No, the 2005 council elections were on the same day as the GE. This will be the first general election not to coincide with locals since 1992.
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Re: Saturday 22nd & Sunday 23rd April 2017
He's not a Green, but yes that is depressing.RogerOThornhill wrote:Your sarcasm might have more impact if your own chosen party had more than a percentage that could be lost in the rounding...
- TechnicalEphemera
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Re: Saturday 22nd & Sunday 23rd April 2017
Who knows, there seems to be a whole random set of choices being made on methodology. I would have thought herding unlikely.AnatolyKasparov wrote: I'm basing that supposition on UKIP and the LibDems effectively swapping places more than the Tory lead, tbh.
Mike Smithson isn't a Corbyn fan, although I suspect people here knew that. However on the Yougov poll this caught my eye (on his twitter feed).
Mike Smithson Retweeted
2h
Tim Shipman @ShippersUnbound
Most striking aspect of the YouGov/Sunday Times poll is this:
Who would you trust to manage the NHS?
Theresa May 29%
Jeremy Corbyn 26%
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Re: Saturday 22nd & Sunday 23rd April 2017
Ealing Greens won't stand against Labour in Ealing and Acton - good news for Rupa Huq.
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Re: Saturday 22nd & Sunday 23rd April 2017
Blatantly stealing Smithson again.
Different methodology, but similar trends.
So far from the Tory lead being slashed on tax U turn it has increased by 2 points.Survation PHONE poll in Mail on Sunday has very different picture
CON 40 (+2) LAB 29 (=) LD 11 (+1) UKIP 11 (-2)
Different methodology, but similar trends.
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Re: Saturday 22nd & Sunday 23rd April 2017
That is compared with the last public Survation poll, which was a while ago. The headline is based on an unpublished survey of theirs I think?
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Re: Saturday 22nd & Sunday 23rd April 2017
Here's the data for the Survation poll quoted above:
http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads ... 04SWCH.pdf" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads ... 04SWCH.pdf" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
- TechnicalEphemera
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Re: Saturday 22nd & Sunday 23rd April 2017
So what you are telling me here is that the MoS is both clueless and dishonest.AnatolyKasparov wrote:That is compared with the last public Survation poll, which was a while ago. The headline is based on an unpublished survey of theirs I think?
Hot Diggity I need to wire that info straight over to the BBC so they can advise people of this fact.
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Re: Saturday 22nd & Sunday 23rd April 2017
Its maybe a useful reminder that pollsters do quite a few surveys that don't get published, though.
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Re: Saturday 22nd & Sunday 23rd April 2017
But surely if you baseline from an unpublished survey you need to publish it.AnatolyKasparov wrote:Its maybe a useful reminder that pollsters do quite a few surveys that don't get published, though.
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Re: Saturday 22nd & Sunday 23rd April 2017
Wow Labour ahead in 2 out of the 3 age groups. Its the grey vote that gives iit to the tories. I wonder if that triple lock pension might be safe after all, whoever wins.pk1 wrote:Here's the data for the Survation poll quoted above:
http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads ... 04SWCH.pdf" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
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Re: Saturday 22nd & Sunday 23rd April 2017
https://www.theguardian.com/society/201 ... se-smokers" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Smokers and obese patients face more curbs on NHS surgery
Smokers and obese patients face more curbs on NHS surgery
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Re: Saturday 22nd & Sunday 23rd April 2017
https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... retail-bhs" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Working mothers face pay and childcare challenges, reports find
Rising cost of childcare, especially in big cities such as London, means some families effectively ‘pay to work’, says IPPR
Working mothers face pay and childcare challenges, reports find
Rising cost of childcare, especially in big cities such as London, means some families effectively ‘pay to work’, says IPPR
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Re: Saturday 22nd & Sunday 23rd April 2017
http://southendnewsnetwork.com/actualne ... ews-story/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
SOUTHEND NEWS NETWORK JUST FOOLED THE S*N INTO PUBLISHING A FAKE NEWS STORY
SOUTHEND NEWS NETWORK JUST FOOLED THE S*N INTO PUBLISHING A FAKE NEWS STORY
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Re: Saturday 22nd & Sunday 23rd April 2017
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... ion-brexit" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Mansfield.
Mansfield.
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Re: Saturday 22nd & Sunday 23rd April 2017
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/ofco ... -appointed" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
News story
Ofcom Board Member appointed
News story
Ofcom Board Member appointed
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Re: Saturday 22nd & Sunday 23rd April 2017
It was the "spring lambs frolicking" that did it for. me. She probably took one home to have with mint sauce. And they "nearby rushing streams" made me think she really is taking the piss.....Willow904 wrote:Walking around Cregennan Lakes and taking in the views of the Mawddach Estuary is absolutely charming, but it's never moved me to call a snap election, I have to say. I think her brain must be wired differently than mine.citizenJA wrote:I'm disgusted with this fictional story.'The walks give clarity': how Wales hike helped PM decide on next step
...it was during her five-day holiday in north Wales two weeks ago that she was able to discuss the prospect with
her closest confidant, her husband Philip.
With two security guards trailing behind them, the couple took a two-and-a-half-mile hike in the hills and woods
above Dolgellau.... They walked past spring lambs frolicking in green pastures, with only the sound of nearby
rushing streams to accompany them.
And that, May said, is when she had her epiphany. “I thought about this long and hard,” she explained later,
“and came to the decision that to provide that stability and certainty for the future, this was the way to do
it – to have an election.”
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Re: Saturday 22nd & Sunday 23rd April 2017
YouGov
Con 48% (-)
Lab 25% (+1)
LD 12% (-)
Ukip 5% (-2)
Scottish Westminster voting intention:
SNP: 44% (-3)
CON: 33% (+5)
LAB: 13% (-1)
LDEM: 5% (+1)
(via Panelbase)
Chgs. w/ Jan 2017
Scottish #GE2017 Survation poll for @Sunday_Post
SNP 43.1% (50% in 2015)
Tories 27.9% (14.9%)
Labour 17.8% (24.3%)
Lib Dems 8.8% (7.5%)
The pattern is clear. Ukips are being squeezed by the Tories. Labour slipping slightly. Every poll the same. Survation the outlier on size of Tory lead (just 11) but they show the same pattern.
But Tem is right about one thing. The Green vote has been squeezed by Labour, just as Corbyn said he would. The problem is there are so few.
Con 48% (-)
Lab 25% (+1)
LD 12% (-)
Ukip 5% (-2)
Scottish Westminster voting intention:
SNP: 44% (-3)
CON: 33% (+5)
LAB: 13% (-1)
LDEM: 5% (+1)
(via Panelbase)
Chgs. w/ Jan 2017
Scottish #GE2017 Survation poll for @Sunday_Post
SNP 43.1% (50% in 2015)
Tories 27.9% (14.9%)
Labour 17.8% (24.3%)
Lib Dems 8.8% (7.5%)
The pattern is clear. Ukips are being squeezed by the Tories. Labour slipping slightly. Every poll the same. Survation the outlier on size of Tory lead (just 11) but they show the same pattern.
But Tem is right about one thing. The Green vote has been squeezed by Labour, just as Corbyn said he would. The problem is there are so few.
Re: Saturday 22nd & Sunday 23rd April 2017
Hi.
Just learned from Twitter that Thursday's Newsnight ran a fawning profile of May's husband for a quarter of the running time. This after a tough interview with Labour. Emily Maitlis tweeted about a possible Labour coup, but smiled after the Mr May profile. The profile was the work of Nicholas Anagram, by the way. Chris Mason of the BBC told complainers on Twitter to "grow up". All this on the same day as Robinson's tweet.
Out of control.
Just learned from Twitter that Thursday's Newsnight ran a fawning profile of May's husband for a quarter of the running time. This after a tough interview with Labour. Emily Maitlis tweeted about a possible Labour coup, but smiled after the Mr May profile. The profile was the work of Nicholas Anagram, by the way. Chris Mason of the BBC told complainers on Twitter to "grow up". All this on the same day as Robinson's tweet.
Out of control.
Re: Saturday 22nd & Sunday 23rd April 2017
Meanwhile Nuttall is on Marr, and Arron Banks will be on SP. The latter "on editorial grounds" according to Tory Robbie Gibb.
Re: Saturday 22nd & Sunday 23rd April 2017
BBC denies obsession with UKIP...
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Re: Saturday 22nd & Sunday 23rd April 2017
Maybe a certain poster could give us their views on the obvious BBC bias rather than telling us poll results that we already know?
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Re: Saturday 22nd & Sunday 23rd April 2017
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39658426" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
General election 2017: Can parties select candidates in time?
So Guido Fawkes was wrong about the Tory selection process kicking off early?"Inevitably it has to be a somewhat shorter process than we usually use," says a leaked letter to would-be Tory candidates published by Conservative Home.
Wow. The Tories have time to invite people to submit applications, draw up lists of 3 candidates and hold local party elections to choose from them, all starting last Tuesday?! While other parties scramble around in a panic. The Tories are indeed blessed with superlative organisational skills and an absolute surfeit of candidates willing to put themselves forward at the drop of a hat with no notice.In target seats and those where MPs are standing down, local party members will get to choose from a shortlist of three candidates drawn up by the party's central office, according to Conservative Home.
"Fall seven times, get up eight" - Japanese proverb
Re: Saturday 22nd & Sunday 23rd April 2017
Presumably because they had nothing better to do.The Liberal Democrats
The party selected 326 candidates last year and 70 or so before the snap election was announced.
"Fall seven times, get up eight" - Japanese proverb
Re: Saturday 22nd & Sunday 23rd April 2017
Good morfternoon.
Edited to tidy up
From the article, this (the final paragraph):The poor get poorer and the rich won’t admit it
David Mitchell (Guardian)
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... zed-middleNo ideological alternative has really caught on enough to sweep aside Thatcher’s vision of Britain, but the fact that high earnings are now a source of social shame demonstrates how tawdry and discredited it has become. Let’s bear that in mind as our current prime minister exhorts us to vote for it again.
Edited to tidy up
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Re: Saturday 22nd & Sunday 23rd April 2017
Mostly that is 2015 candidates who had indicated they would have been willing to stand again, I presume.Willow904 wrote:Presumably because they had nothing better to do.The Liberal Democrats
The party selected 326 candidates last year and 70 or so before the snap election was announced.
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Re: Saturday 22nd & Sunday 23rd April 2017
Regardless of who they are, this article suggests they were already officially selected for the next election in 2020 well before such selections would normally take place. On the back of Brexit referendum chaos, a reasonable pre-caution. And despite Tory protestations, the Guido Fawkes article suggests they have done at least some preliminary work on selections back in February. If Labour have likewise been preparing for an early election, and Corbyn has been telling us he has the party on a campaign footing since last year, they have been very quiet on the candidate selection front.AnatolyKasparov wrote:Mostly that is 2015 candidates who had indicated they would have been willing to stand again, I presume.Willow904 wrote:Presumably because they had nothing better to do.The Liberal Democrats
The party selected 326 candidates last year and 70 or so before the snap election was announced.
"Fall seven times, get up eight" - Japanese proverb
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Re: Saturday 22nd & Sunday 23rd April 2017
Hi WillowWillow904 wrote:Regardless of who they are, this article suggests they were already officially selected for the next election in 2020 well before such selections would normally take place. On the back of Brexit referendum chaos, a reasonable pre-caution. And despite Tory protestations, the Guido Fawkes article suggests they have done at least some preliminary work on selections back in February. If Labour have likewise been preparing for an early election, and Corbyn has been telling us he has the party on a campaign footing since last year, they have been very quiet on the candidate selection front.
Don't forget the proposed boundary changes! I'm not an expert on this, but our neighbouring constituency has a sitting Labour MP and was set to disappear. So what was to happen to her? Presumably she would have been a good candidate for one of the neighbouring constituencies?
Everyone seems to have forgotten about this issue.
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Re: Saturday 22nd & Sunday 23rd April 2017
FWIW As far as I know my London Marathon record in the pink dressing gown chainsmoking Frankie Howard impersonator (40-45) category set in 2003 still stands,will check later.
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Re: Saturday 22nd & Sunday 23rd April 2017
Yes, I think Labour policy was not to select until after the proposed boundary changes were passed (or, possibly, not?)
And it would be surprising if other parties hadn't taken a similar line.
Which does also point to the "selections" referred to above just being people saying they would stand in the (seemingly unlikely) event of a snap election.
And it would be surprising if other parties hadn't taken a similar line.
Which does also point to the "selections" referred to above just being people saying they would stand in the (seemingly unlikely) event of a snap election.
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Re: Saturday 22nd & Sunday 23rd April 2017
Which backs up my point that the Libdems have had nothing better to do than go around checking who would be willing to stand in the event of a snap election!AnatolyKasparov wrote:Yes, I think Labour policy was not to select until after the proposed boundary changes were passed (or, possibly, not?)
And it would be surprising if other parties hadn't taken a similar line.
Which does also point to the "selections" referred to above just being people saying they would stand in the (seemingly unlikely) event of a snap election.
If Labour are only asking now, they have a little catching up to do, though obviously with considerably more MPs in place than the Libdems, they've less to do generally.
Meanwhile, I remain convinced that No 10 has been planning this "snap" election for some considerable time, which doesn't rule out potential election fraud prosecutions as a contributory factor, as they have been a potential issue for the Tories and their slim majority for some time.
"Fall seven times, get up eight" - Japanese proverb