Friday 26th May 2017
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Welcome to FTN. New posters are welcome to join the conversation. You can follow us on Twitter @FlythenestHaven You are responsible for the content you post. This is a public forum. Treat it as if you are speaking in a crowded room. Site admin and Moderators are volunteers who will respond as quickly as they are able to when made aware of any complaints. Please do not post copyrighted material without the original authors permission.
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Friday 26th May 2017
Morning
Manchester attack: new arrest as police search for accomplices
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/liv ... lices-live" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Manchester attack: new arrest as police search for accomplices
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/liv ... lices-live" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
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Re: Friday 26th May 2017
https://thebristolcable.org/2017/05/loc ... ealthcare/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Three local health trade union branches are among the first in the country to resist government measures which they say will require NHS staff to act as ‘border guards’.
Three local health trade union branches are among the first in the country to resist government measures which they say will require NHS staff to act as ‘border guards’.
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Re: Friday 26th May 2017
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/vid ... uist-trump" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Trump diehards stay loyal in Montana's 'white man's country' – video
Trump diehards stay loyal in Montana's 'white man's country' – video
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Re: Friday 26th May 2017
Repost
https://www.theguardian.com/education/2 ... ection-ifs" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Schools face years of funding cuts if Tories win election, say reports
https://www.ifs.org.uk/publications/9252" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
https://epi.org.uk/report/election-2017 ... -analysis/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
https://www.theguardian.com/education/2 ... ection-ifs" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Schools face years of funding cuts if Tories win election, say reports
https://www.ifs.org.uk/publications/9252" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
https://epi.org.uk/report/election-2017 ... -analysis/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Last edited by HindleA on Fri 26 May, 2017 6:32 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Friday 26th May 2017
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... -in-public" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Ukip 'would ban balaclavas in public'
Ukip 'would ban balaclavas in public'
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Friday 26th May 2017
Morning all.
Glad to see Charles Clarke pop up. A former Labour home secretary would concentrate his criticism to May, right? Alas, no. Corbyn, Corbyn, Corbyn.
The reaction to Corbyn's speech beforehand by the usual suspects is another let's set the narrative attempt. Sad, but unsurprising.
Glad to see Charles Clarke pop up. A former Labour home secretary would concentrate his criticism to May, right? Alas, no. Corbyn, Corbyn, Corbyn.
The reaction to Corbyn's speech beforehand by the usual suspects is another let's set the narrative attempt. Sad, but unsurprising.
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Re: Friday 26th May 2017
Morning all.
Shocked etc.
Investigation: DfE ‘hid’ damaging Lord Nash academy cost emails
http://schoolsweek.co.uk/investigation- ... st-emails/
Shocked etc.
Investigation: DfE ‘hid’ damaging Lord Nash academy cost emails
http://schoolsweek.co.uk/investigation- ... st-emails/
Nash and his cronies decided long ago that academies were the way forward and no expense would be spared in achieving that aim. And of course those who claim to be bitterly opposed to any kind of public spending wouldn't be at all interested in this because it's Tory policy.The Department for Education has attempted to hide internal emails showing Lord Nash’s intention to massage the presentation of figures that reveal the spiralling costs of rebrokering academies.
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Re: Friday 26th May 2017
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/05/25/ar ... aining-it/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
It looks as though the Tories really were in trouble over the social care thing. Another day as front page news could have been very damaging for them. Labour need to get the campaigning back squarely on domestic issues as this is where they have an edge over the Tories. Foreign policy isn't a favourable topic for Corbyn, regardless of the rights and wrongs of It. He needs to get the conversation back to Tory manifesto pledges that are very clearly and obviously negative for large groups of voters. It was working. Intelligent and intellectual stuff about foreign wars and Islamic terrorism probably won't work.Are the Tories losing ground or regaining it?
"Fall seven times, get up eight" - Japanese proverb
Re: Friday 26th May 2017
This is really depressing if the Tories win, as is likely:
https://www.theguardian.com/education/2 ... ection-ifs" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
I'm still doubtful about Labour's proposal to abolish tuition fees, though. Grants historically were provided in a system that restricted HE places to match graduate demand. Without that restriction on places, this is a hugely expensive policy that may not justify itself as an investment in required skills. Although learning for the sake of it is a nice thing, it's an awful lot of money and in the same manifesto there is no money made available to reverse benefit and tax credit freezes, which is disappointing. Although this is obviously about appealing to young voters, it feels right on the edge of the cynical vote buying stunt performed by the Libdems. Higher education and its funding, along with apprenticeships and 16 &18 year exams systems, need a proper wholesale review, though I appreciate sensible, long term reforms don't really make for catchy vote winners. I guess the sheer cost of abolishing such fees would force a review and overhaul of place numbers, types of courses and university structures anyway. At least Labour doing better in the polls means consideration of their policies and what they might mean is now less of a pointless exercise.
https://www.theguardian.com/education/2 ... ection-ifs" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
As Labour are simply aiming to get back to and stay where education funding was in 2015, that should really read that secondary schools will be £500 per pupil per year worse off under the Tories by 2022. That's a lot.The IFS costed Labour’s promise to reverse the cuts seen in recent years at an additional £4.8bn, which would see school budgets rise over the next five years. Overall, secondary schools in England would get £500 more per pupil per year under Labour than under the Conservatives, the IFS calculated.
I'm still doubtful about Labour's proposal to abolish tuition fees, though. Grants historically were provided in a system that restricted HE places to match graduate demand. Without that restriction on places, this is a hugely expensive policy that may not justify itself as an investment in required skills. Although learning for the sake of it is a nice thing, it's an awful lot of money and in the same manifesto there is no money made available to reverse benefit and tax credit freezes, which is disappointing. Although this is obviously about appealing to young voters, it feels right on the edge of the cynical vote buying stunt performed by the Libdems. Higher education and its funding, along with apprenticeships and 16 &18 year exams systems, need a proper wholesale review, though I appreciate sensible, long term reforms don't really make for catchy vote winners. I guess the sheer cost of abolishing such fees would force a review and overhaul of place numbers, types of courses and university structures anyway. At least Labour doing better in the polls means consideration of their policies and what they might mean is now less of a pointless exercise.
"Fall seven times, get up eight" - Japanese proverb
Re: Friday 26th May 2017
https://amp.theguardian.com/business/20 ... -manifesto" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Obviously political parties tend to be overly optimistic with their plans when hoping to get elected. It's just hard to see with either the Tories or Labour what the reality might look like compared to the ideal. Neither seems to be acknowledging the realities of Brexit, making this feel rather like a "take a look at what you could have won" election.IFS makes damning assessment of Tory and Labour manifestos
Neither party’s general election manifesto sets out an honest set of choices, says leading thinktank
"Fall seven times, get up eight" - Japanese proverb
Re: Friday 26th May 2017
You could say JC might as well be hung for a sheep as for a lamb, the Scum the other night laid into him with no justification whatsoever, then there's Iain Martin. The tories haven't really started on his foreign policy views yet, and possibly wouldn't have bothered if the polls hadn't swung against them.Willow904 wrote:https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/05/25/ar ... aining-it/
It looks as though the Tories really were in trouble over the social care thing. Another day as front page news could have been very damaging for them. Labour need to get the campaigning back squarely on domestic issues as this is where they have an edge over the Tories. Foreign policy isn't a favourable topic for Corbyn, regardless of the rights and wrongs of It. He needs to get the conversation back to Tory manifesto pledges that are very clearly and obviously negative for large groups of voters. It was working. Intelligent and intellectual stuff about foreign wars and Islamic terrorism probably won't work.Are the Tories losing ground or regaining it?
He might as well get his real views out there for those with ears to hear.
Looking for the positives here!
One world, like it or not - John Martyn
Re: Friday 26th May 2017
On the contrary, Labour's fiscal stimulus is exactly what we'll need to start to combat the Brexit recession. The IFS are known for 'not doing macro', so they don't take the wider economic effects into account.Willow904 wrote:https://amp.theguardian.com/business/20 ... -manifesto
Obviously political parties tend to be overly optimistic with their plans when hoping to get elected. It's just hard to see with either the Tories or Labour what the reality might look like compared to the ideal. Neither seems to be acknowledging the realities of Brexit, making this feel rather like a "take a look at what you could have won" election.IFS makes damning assessment of Tory and Labour manifestos
Neither party’s general election manifesto sets out an honest set of choices, says leading thinktank
One world, like it or not - John Martyn
Re: Friday 26th May 2017
The positive is that the Tories appear to be vulnerable on domestic policy. I'd just like to see Labour getting back to exploiting that.gilsey wrote:You could say JC might as well be hung for a sheep as for a lamb, the Scum the other night laid into him with no justification whatsoever, then there's Iain Martin. The tories haven't really started on his foreign policy views yet, and possibly wouldn't have bothered if the polls hadn't swung against them.Willow904 wrote:https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/05/25/ar ... aining-it/
It looks as though the Tories really were in trouble over the social care thing. Another day as front page news could have been very damaging for them. Labour need to get the campaigning back squarely on domestic issues as this is where they have an edge over the Tories. Foreign policy isn't a favourable topic for Corbyn, regardless of the rights and wrongs of It. He needs to get the conversation back to Tory manifesto pledges that are very clearly and obviously negative for large groups of voters. It was working. Intelligent and intellectual stuff about foreign wars and Islamic terrorism probably won't work.Are the Tories losing ground or regaining it?
He might as well get his real views out there for those with ears to hear.
Looking for the positives here!
"Fall seven times, get up eight" - Japanese proverb
Re: Friday 26th May 2017
There's a difference between capital investment and day to day spending. We need more capital spending and Labour are right to borrow for that and it will pay dividends eventually (we are currently paying the price for Osborne's slash in capital spending back in 2010) but money to pay for day to day spending needs to come from tax revenue and Brexit is going to affect that, how can it not? Taxing corporations and high earners more at the same time as we leave the EU has implications that would not be there if we weren't Brexiting, that's the reality that I fear is missing from Labour's manifesto (and which makes Tory plans even more ominous than they already feel, which is quite ominous enough). The Libdems are possibly being the most realistic with their penny on income tax to pay for vital health and social care services that we all rely on. The Tories reduced income taxes for middle and upper middle earners, who were winners rather than losers from "austerity" and that has cost us a lot in revenue that is not easy to replace just by taxing a very few of the highest earners. Of course, voters won't vote for tax rises, something we saw at the last Holyrood elections where Labour were hammered for a similar honesty, so I'm not advocating Labour say what they would really do, just pointing out the unknown element of it all, when you consider how policies proposed now will be derailed by Brexit.gilsey wrote:On the contrary, Labour's fiscal stimulus is exactly what we'll need to start to combat the Brexit recession. The IFS are known for 'not doing macro', so they don't take the wider economic effects into account.Willow904 wrote:https://amp.theguardian.com/business/20 ... -manifesto
Obviously political parties tend to be overly optimistic with their plans when hoping to get elected. It's just hard to see with either the Tories or Labour what the reality might look like compared to the ideal. Neither seems to be acknowledging the realities of Brexit, making this feel rather like a "take a look at what you could have won" election.IFS makes damning assessment of Tory and Labour manifestos
Neither party’s general election manifesto sets out an honest set of choices, says leading thinktank
"Fall seven times, get up eight" - Japanese proverb
Re: Friday 26th May 2017
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DAvStV_XoAAUUUE.jpg:large" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
The above is an example of where I would actually hope Labour in government would do something differently than what they say in their manifesto because in their manifesto the poorest aren't much better off than under current Tory plans. The Libdem manifesto is better on this, finding money to reverse Tory cuts.
It's possible that Labour are hoping that a rise in the national minimum wage will release some current welfare spending that can be re-distributed to reverse benefit freezes, but they don't actually say so.
It's possible that Labour are hoping that a rise in the national minimum wage will release some current welfare spending that can be re-distributed to reverse benefit freezes, but they don't actually say so.
Last edited by Willow904 on Fri 26 May, 2017 10:30 am, edited 1 time in total.
"Fall seven times, get up eight" - Japanese proverb
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Re: Friday 26th May 2017
I had to admit to laughing out loud at this...poor Will.
" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
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Re: Friday 26th May 2017
Oh dear...
Katie Hopkins sacked by LBC following Manchester attack 'final solution' comments
http://www.independent.co.uk/arts-enter ... 56776.html
Katie Hopkins sacked by LBC following Manchester attack 'final solution' comments
http://www.independent.co.uk/arts-enter ... 56776.html
Katie Hopkins is to leave LBC with immediate effect, the radio station has confirmed.
The announcement comes shortly after Hopkins said that a "final solution" is needed following the Manchester terror attack. A controversial tweet even by her standards, it appeared to imply that there should be a genocide of Muslims, her use of 'final solution' presumably referring to the Nazis' plan to murder all Jews within reach.
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Re: Friday 26th May 2017
Following on from that, it appears that free speech does, after all, have its limits...
No doubt Spiked will be along soon to defend her...
No doubt Spiked will be along soon to defend her...
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Re: Friday 26th May 2017
https://www.bma.org.uk/news/media-centr ... -pressures" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
BMA analysis shows that NHS patients endured one of the worst winters on record, with year-round crisis set to become the norm
BMA analysis shows that NHS patients endured one of the worst winters on record, with year-round crisis set to become the norm
Re: Friday 26th May 2017
Labour up in the polls, Tories on the ropes, and the scabs are out in force. Neil Coyle on Sky claiming that there is no link between our foreign policy and terror.
Re: Friday 26th May 2017
Good-morning, everyone
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Re: Friday 26th May 2017
The point is, in private at least our top military/spooks/diplomats would never claim there is "NO LINK". It is a fatuous assertion.Temulkar wrote:Labour up in the polls, Tories on the ropes, and the scabs are out in force. Neil Coyle on Sky claiming that there is no link between our foreign policy and terror.
Unfortunately, one side effect if this Labour rise in the polls is for real would be Coyle retaining his seat.
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Re: Friday 26th May 2017
yeah but a hung parliament and another coalition would see the scabs completely frozen out, they will simply become irrelevant.AnatolyKasparov wrote:The point is, in private at least our top military/spooks/diplomats would never claim there is "NO LINK". It is a fatuous claim.Temulkar wrote:Labour up in the polls, Tories on the ropes, and the scabs are out in force. Neil Coyle on Sky claiming that there is no link between our foreign policy and terror.
Unfortunately, one side effect if this Labour rise in the polls is for real would be Coyle retaining his seat.
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Re: Friday 26th May 2017
http://m.insidehousing.co.uk/7020167.ar ... esuccess=1#" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
From Inside Housing
Revealed: less than half of Right to Buy replacements are for social rent
Less than half of the council homes built to replace those sold under the Right to Buy are at social rents, an exclusive Inside Housing investigation has revealed.
Since 2012, councils have been allowed to keep a portion of the receipt from a Right to Buy home to build a replacement, with a total of 10,644 started so far against 51,352 sales.
But Freedom of Information Act responses from 111 councils – 75% of those building replacements – showed only 48% (3,962) of the 8,109 new homes they had started were at social rents.
Affordable rent, which is set at up to 80% of the market rate and is much higher than social rents in many areas of the country, made up 3,971 replacements with the remainder temporary housing and other tenures.
John Healey, Labour’s housing spokesperson, said the figures show that the Conservatives’ “damaging approach” to Right to Buy is “failing”.
From Inside Housing
Revealed: less than half of Right to Buy replacements are for social rent
Less than half of the council homes built to replace those sold under the Right to Buy are at social rents, an exclusive Inside Housing investigation has revealed.
Since 2012, councils have been allowed to keep a portion of the receipt from a Right to Buy home to build a replacement, with a total of 10,644 started so far against 51,352 sales.
But Freedom of Information Act responses from 111 councils – 75% of those building replacements – showed only 48% (3,962) of the 8,109 new homes they had started were at social rents.
Affordable rent, which is set at up to 80% of the market rate and is much higher than social rents in many areas of the country, made up 3,971 replacements with the remainder temporary housing and other tenures.
John Healey, Labour’s housing spokesperson, said the figures show that the Conservatives’ “damaging approach” to Right to Buy is “failing”.
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Re: Friday 26th May 2017
https://www.channel4.com/news/factcheck ... he-economy" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
FactCheck Q&A: Which party has a better track record on the economy?
FactCheck Q&A: Which party has a better track record on the economy?
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Re: Friday 26th May 2017
Great news about Hopkins.
One thing that should be mentioned about her - she is often described as a "former meteorologist". She's not, rather a former admin worker in the Met Office.
Now I'm an admin worker, so no shame in that. It matters when she uses the "authority" of her supposed former position to claim global warming is a scam, though
One thing that should be mentioned about her - she is often described as a "former meteorologist". She's not, rather a former admin worker in the Met Office.
Now I'm an admin worker, so no shame in that. It matters when she uses the "authority" of her supposed former position to claim global warming is a scam, though
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Re: Friday 26th May 2017
http://paullewismoney.blogspot.co.uk/20 ... still.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
A QUARTER OF ADVISERS' INCOME STILL COMES FROM COMMISSION
A QUARTER OF ADVISERS' INCOME STILL COMES FROM COMMISSION
Re: Friday 26th May 2017
I thought Jeremy Corbyn's speech was measured, thoughtful, and held no shock\horror elements for the press to froth about (I'm sure they'll try, though). It was a shrewd move to make it - contrary to my fears.
Edited - typo
Edited - typo
Re: Friday 26th May 2017
Good morfternoon.
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Re: Friday 26th May 2017
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Myers isn't noted for being a Corbyn enthusiast.
And that bit in the middle about "That assessment in now way reduces the guilt of those who attack our children"? Funny how that will be brushed aside...
Myers isn't noted for being a Corbyn enthusiast.
And that bit in the middle about "That assessment in now way reduces the guilt of those who attack our children"? Funny how that will be brushed aside...
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Re: Friday 26th May 2017
And Fallon pops up lol.
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Re: Friday 26th May 2017
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/ju ... -good-harm" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
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Re: Friday 26th May 2017
No sooner said than done...RogerOThornhill wrote:Following on from that, it appears that free speech does, after all, have its limits...
No doubt Spiked will be along soon to defend her...
http://www.spiked-online.com/newsite/ar ... Sgkc2jyvct" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
What a dick.
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Re: Friday 26th May 2017
The Guardian does give quotes from Jeremy Corbyn's speech which make Boris Johnson look stupid. Not difficult, I realise.14:37
Boris Johnson calls Corbyn's terror policy speech 'absolutely monstrous' (Politics Live, Guardian)
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Re: Friday 26th May 2017
FFS these liberal easilly offended mobsters.
Re: Friday 26th May 2017
The Conservatives are getting a bit hysterical.
Edited to add - Amber Rudd's joined in, now.
Edited to add - Amber Rudd's joined in, now.
Re: Friday 26th May 2017
I assume, owing to the time lag since the speech was made, the Conservatives have had to wait for instructions.
Re: Friday 26th May 2017
So we talk about it when, Mr Personal Anecdote?15:25
But the Lib Dem leader Tim Farron has criticised Jeremy Corbyn for giving his speech today. (Politics Live, Guardian)
Edited to tidy up
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Re: Friday 26th May 2017
one name sprang to mind immediately.http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world ... 57686.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Pigeon 'caught carrying large stash of drugs in miniature backpack by Kuwait customs officials'
apologies for even thinking it.
(L)
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Re: Friday 26th May 2017
I'm no great fan of ... (etc etc) but I was pretty appalled to see Clarke's 'contribution' this morning. Wtf? really.StephenDolan wrote:Morning all.
Glad to see Charles Clarke pop up. A former Labour home secretary would concentrate his criticism to May, right? Alas, no. Corbyn, Corbyn, Corbyn.
The reaction to Corbyn's speech beforehand by the usual suspects is another let's set the narrative attempt. Sad, but unsurprising.
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Re: Friday 26th May 2017
Saw of an anecdote today of him having to canvass on his own during the 2010 campaign because even his local activists were sick of the systematic "well lunched" disloyalty.tinyclanger2 wrote:I'm no great fan of ... (etc etc) but I was pretty appalled to see Clarke's 'contribution' this morning. Wtf? really.StephenDolan wrote:Morning all.
Glad to see Charles Clarke pop up. A former Labour home secretary would concentrate his criticism to May, right? Alas, no. Corbyn, Corbyn, Corbyn.
The reaction to Corbyn's speech beforehand by the usual suspects is another let's set the narrative attempt. Sad, but unsurprising.
Norwich South is rather better served by its incumbent (and hopefully future) MP.
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Re: Friday 26th May 2017
What,L,?Yeah I know you only have an occasional spliff,they did apologise for their thought.Seeking an UN Resolution on the matter,maybe a bit of an overreaction.
Re: Friday 26th May 2017
The IFS are standing in for the BBC on this, imo, presumably wishing to appear impartial. To pretend that the manifestos are equally rubbish in economic terms is doing Labour a great injustice.gilsey wrote:On the contrary, Labour's fiscal stimulus is exactly what we'll need to start to combat the Brexit recession. The IFS are known for 'not doing macro', so they don't take the wider economic effects into account.Willow904 wrote:https://amp.theguardian.com/business/20 ... -manifesto
Obviously political parties tend to be overly optimistic with their plans when hoping to get elected. It's just hard to see with either the Tories or Labour what the reality might look like compared to the ideal. Neither seems to be acknowledging the realities of Brexit, making this feel rather like a "take a look at what you could have won" election.IFS makes damning assessment of Tory and Labour manifestos
Neither party’s general election manifesto sets out an honest set of choices, says leading thinktank
Sorry I had to delete your second comment because of PfY's nesting rule!
A shortfall of tax revenues against current spending wouldn't be a problem for a year or two, so badly do we need that fiscal stimulus. Here's an alternative view.
http://www.primeeconomics.org/articles/ ... -telescope" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
One world, like it or not - John Martyn
Re: Friday 26th May 2017
Both Boris Johnson and Tim Farron are being exposed for the hypocrites that they are over at Politics Live (Guardian).
Boris Johnson won't care much - but Tim Farron has dented his halo.
Boris Johnson won't care much - but Tim Farron has dented his halo.
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Re: Friday 26th May 2017
https://www.theguardian.com/education/2 ... hakespeare" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
A plague o' both your houses: error in GCSE exam paper forces apology
A plague o' both your houses: error in GCSE exam paper forces apology
Re: Friday 26th May 2017
From the article -HindleA wrote:https://www.theguardian.com/education/2 ... hakespeare
A plague o' both your houses: error in GCSE exam paper forces apology
The Guardian - rarely disappoints in these areas. Poignant.One of England’s biggest exam boards has been forced to apologised [sic] after thousands of students sat an English literature GCSE paper with a mistake in it. (Guardian)
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Re: Friday 26th May 2017
I would say it's a schoolboy error but in this case it seems the schoolboys knew best...HindleA wrote:https://www.theguardian.com/education/2 ... hakespeare
A plague o' both your houses: error in GCSE exam paper forces apology
If I'm not here, then I'll be in the library. Or the other library.
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- Prime Minister
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Re: Friday 26th May 2017
Farron rushing to attack JC today before he had even delivered his speech was not a great look.
"IS TONTY BLAIR BEHIND THIS???!!!!111???!!!"
Re: Friday 26th May 2017
@gilsey
I don't particularly disagree. The general thrust of government spending from Labour is better than further Tory shrinking of the state, I just feel the Labour commitment to not tax anyone on less than £80,000 a year ignores both just how much Osborne has already depleted our tax base through tax cuts and just how much our tax revenues are likely to fall further due to Brexit.
My point is a broad one, really, about how both manifestos have been drawn up based on now when we know with so much more certainty than usual that all the assumptions they are based on are on the cusp of changing quite significantly. It's always true, circumstances always change, hence the impossibility of manifesto promises being anything more than hopeful pledges, it's just this time it feels extra false and I'm left wondering what either party will really do.
As for fiscal stimulus, our country's benefit system kicks in during a downturn in the economy, hence creating that stimulus - the automatic stabilizers. Osborne undermined their impact with benefit freezes, the benefit freezes I have been grumbling about because Labour seem to have forgotten to reverse quite a lot of them, something which is vitally important with Brexit looming and threatening to push us into recession. Corbyn's manifesto is good with big ideas, but ignores the huge damage done by Osborne's tax cuts for middle and higher middle earners and by benefit cuts for the poorest and the urgent need to reverse both. Bear in mind, a rise in NMW leads to a drop in tax credits, so families in particular won't feel the full benefit of this policy unless tax credits are made more generous again, so forgetting to reverse tax credit cuts feels like a real oversight from Labour. And not asking above average earners who were net winners under Osborne to contribute a bit more just feels a bit cowardly, although probably electorally smart.
I don't particularly disagree. The general thrust of government spending from Labour is better than further Tory shrinking of the state, I just feel the Labour commitment to not tax anyone on less than £80,000 a year ignores both just how much Osborne has already depleted our tax base through tax cuts and just how much our tax revenues are likely to fall further due to Brexit.
My point is a broad one, really, about how both manifestos have been drawn up based on now when we know with so much more certainty than usual that all the assumptions they are based on are on the cusp of changing quite significantly. It's always true, circumstances always change, hence the impossibility of manifesto promises being anything more than hopeful pledges, it's just this time it feels extra false and I'm left wondering what either party will really do.
As for fiscal stimulus, our country's benefit system kicks in during a downturn in the economy, hence creating that stimulus - the automatic stabilizers. Osborne undermined their impact with benefit freezes, the benefit freezes I have been grumbling about because Labour seem to have forgotten to reverse quite a lot of them, something which is vitally important with Brexit looming and threatening to push us into recession. Corbyn's manifesto is good with big ideas, but ignores the huge damage done by Osborne's tax cuts for middle and higher middle earners and by benefit cuts for the poorest and the urgent need to reverse both. Bear in mind, a rise in NMW leads to a drop in tax credits, so families in particular won't feel the full benefit of this policy unless tax credits are made more generous again, so forgetting to reverse tax credit cuts feels like a real oversight from Labour. And not asking above average earners who were net winners under Osborne to contribute a bit more just feels a bit cowardly, although probably electorally smart.
"Fall seven times, get up eight" - Japanese proverb
Re: Friday 26th May 2017
The Times says its YouGov poll (see 11.07am), if replicated at a general election, would give the Conservatives a majority of just two.
Lord Ashcroft, a former Tory deputy chairman who is now a polling specialist, is running a model based on multilevel regression and poststratification, or MRP (don’t ask.) He says his model now implies a majority of 142. (Politics Live, Guardian)