Wednesday 16th January 2019

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PaulfromYorkshire
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Wednesday 16th January 2019

Post by PaulfromYorkshire »

Morning!

A good piece from Freedland

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... may-errors" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

defeat-may-errors
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Re: Wednesday 16th January 2019

Post by HindleA »

Anybody with a scintilla of knowledge stated that you cannot save money from cutting cost saving allowances,especially in the "to thosewho need it most"or whatever the chosen patronising bullshit phrase .It is not just the attempt of denial,unequivocal.clear evidence that the cheapest method to provide a personal budget,which in effect DLA/PIP is ,so for example access to the motabilty scheme rather than the State deciding Access to Work and taxis at far extra cost and less independence.
Last edited by HindleA on Wed 16 Jan, 2019 8:06 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Wednesday 16th January 2019

Post by HindleA »

Steve Webb mysteriously forgetting he was pensions' minister and voted for the both have to be state pension age change.Next he'll decry the bedroom tax.
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Re: Wednesday 16th January 2019

Post by HindleA »

Think I should stop at twelve bags of crisps(though more like bag of crisp,these days)
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Re: Wednesday 16th January 2019

Post by HindleA »

"A free crisp with every bag of air!!!!"
PaulfromYorkshire
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Re: Wednesday 16th January 2019

Post by PaulfromYorkshire »

Guy Verhofstadt
@guyverhofstadt

It is not up to me, as a humble Belgian, to lecture Brits on what to do, but I think it’s time the national interest overtakes narrow party politics & cross party politics redefines the red lines imposed by hardliners in the Conservative party. We are ready for this. #Brexit
My emphasis

So there is a way forward it seems.
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Re: Wednesday 16th January 2019

Post by citizenJA »

Good-morning, everyone
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Re: Wednesday 16th January 2019

Post by adam »

PaulfromYorkshire wrote:
Guy Verhofstadt
@guyverhofstadt

It is not up to me, as a humble Belgian, to lecture Brits on what to do, but I think it’s time the national interest overtakes narrow party politics & cross party politics redefines the red lines imposed by hardliners in the Conservative party. We are ready for this. #Brexit
My emphasis

So there is a way forward it seems.
The EU have fairly consistently said 'if these are your red lines then this is what is possible and that's the end of it, but the door is always open for you to move closer if you accept the 'costs' that come with a closer association.'
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citizenJA
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Re: Wednesday 16th January 2019

Post by citizenJA »

Wait. I thought Corbyn was enabling Tory Brexit.
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Re: Wednesday 16th January 2019

Post by citizenJA »

Who have we always been at war with today
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Re: Wednesday 16th January 2019

Post by adam »

May's plans to talk to 'senior parliamentarians' in a cross-party attempt to move forward appear to exclude the ideas of rethinking her red lines or of talking at all to the leader of the opposition. There's a surprise.
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Willow904
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Re: Wednesday 16th January 2019

Post by Willow904 »

I think changing the declaration on the future relationship was always going to be possible, though I think the EU is deadly serious about not re-opening the WA and that includes the backstop.

As both the ERG and many in Labour have been adamant the backstop is unacceptable, for May to get a tweaked deal through will involve some huge backtracking from many of those who voted against her deal last night, which currently doesn't seem very likely.

Does that, therefore, mean a further referendum may be her only viable option, if she survives the no confidence vote?
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Re: Wednesday 16th January 2019

Post by citizenJA »

Following May's catastrophic defeat, she promised seeking cross-party support. Her not doing so today make her actions those of an unprincipled, lying, terrifying person. May is playing with the lives of millions in order to save herself and her Tory party. Why hasn't May resigned? Why hasn't she called a GE now that her and her party have demonstrated they're incapable of governing the UK?
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Re: Wednesday 16th January 2019

Post by citizenJA »

Glaring with hatred at the opposition across the room isn't sufficient leadership.
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Re: Wednesday 16th January 2019

Post by adam »

Willow904 wrote:I think changing the declaration on the future relationship was always going to be possible, though I think the EU is deadly serious about not re-opening the WA and that includes the backstop.

As both the ERG and many in Labour have been adamant the backstop is unacceptable, for May to get a tweaked deal through will involve some huge backtracking from many of those who voted against her deal last night, which currently doesn't seem very likely.

Does that, therefore, mean a further referendum may be her only viable option, if she survives the no confidence vote?
I've yet to see any suggestion anywhere that she won't survive the confidence vote. 100+ tory MPs and the 10 DUP MPs who all voted down her personal flagship policy yesterday will all put their names to confidence in her government today, it seems.
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Re: Wednesday 16th January 2019

Post by PaulfromYorkshire »

Willow904 wrote:I think changing the declaration on the future relationship was always going to be possible, though I think the EU is deadly serious about not re-opening the WA and that includes the backstop.

As both the ERG and many in Labour have been adamant the backstop is unacceptable, for May to get a tweaked deal through will involve some huge backtracking from many of those who voted against her deal last night, which currently doesn't seem very likely.

Does that, therefore, mean a further referendum may be her only viable option, if she survives the no confidence vote?
But if we look at what Corbyn said
Labour has laid out its priorities consistently: no deal must be taken off the table; a permanent customs union must be secured; and people’s rights and protections must be guaranteed so they do not fall behind.
This could be achieved tomorrow. Backstop no longer needed. A majority of Labour and Nationalist MPs would support it and probably enough Tories. Job done.

I know it's not that simple. But there is a way forward.
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Re: Wednesday 16th January 2019

Post by PaulfromYorkshire »

adam wrote:
Willow904 wrote:I think changing the declaration on the future relationship was always going to be possible, though I think the EU is deadly serious about not re-opening the WA and that includes the backstop.

As both the ERG and many in Labour have been adamant the backstop is unacceptable, for May to get a tweaked deal through will involve some huge backtracking from many of those who voted against her deal last night, which currently doesn't seem very likely.

Does that, therefore, mean a further referendum may be her only viable option, if she survives the no confidence vote?
I've yet to see any suggestion anywhere that she won't survive the confidence vote. 100+ tory MPs and the 10 DUP MPs who all voted down her personal flagship policy yesterday will all put their names to confidence in her government today, it seems.
And I hope they all get punished at the ballot box next time for their duplicity.

At the end of the day they care about Brexit, but they care about their own jobs more!
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Re: Wednesday 16th January 2019

Post by howsillyofme1 »

Good morning all

Belated Happy New Year

May has three options.

Agree something with the opposition parties which will mean a softer Brexit than she wants and won't be acceptable to the Tories. Party will be torn apart

The other option will be referendum which will probably need to be three way to have any chance of winning enough votes (her deal vs remain vs no deal). Thing is that will not work because a lot of people will not accept remain and another lot will not accept no deal

The final option is to do nothing and crash out without a deal. Majority in Parliament against that and I am sure that she will not be 'allowed' to do that. Although, Parliamentary procedures are hard to read and it may come down to Bercow and even the Supreme Court

The best option for the country is the first one but unlikely happen as she has shown no inclination to do this .- unless of course you are confident about winning another referendum (and she won't do this either)

And do you know what is a fac about this that makes me most angry - the Tories who think this woman is not competent to lead the country through Brexit, who voted against her deal are not prepared to bring her down and allow another leader to think again. Soubry et al are complicit in this

And do you know who you cannot blame although most do - Jeremy Corbyn! Thanks to Kier Starmer as well for being a voice of calm but also Corbyn's bloody mindedness. I am still waiting for one of his critics to tall me something that has happened that would have put us in a position where the Tories lost their version of Brexit (harder than the other parties) by 230 votes and put us in a position where there is a glimmer of hope?

A50 vote
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Re: Wednesday 16th January 2019

Post by citizenJA »

PaulfromYorkshire wrote:---
...look at what Corbyn said
Labour has laid out its priorities consistently: no deal must be taken off the table; a permanent customs union must be secured; and people’s rights and protections must be guaranteed so they do not fall behind.
This could be achieved tomorrow. Backstop no longer needed. A majority of Labour and Nationalist MPs would support it and probably enough Tories. Job done.

I know it's not that simple. But there is a way forward.
(cJA edit)
Yep, feasible alternatives are available. Never let it be forgotten regardless of what gets spun.
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Re: Wednesday 16th January 2019

Post by adam »

PaulfromYorkshire wrote:snippity snip snip Backstop no longer needed.
You're going to need to convince me about this.
the United Kingdom will maintain full alignment with those rules of the Internal Market and the Customs Union which, now or in the future, support North-South cooperation, the all-island economy and the protection of the 1998 Agreement.
December 2017 agreeement. My emphasis. The withdrawal agreement as it stands meets the requirement of keeping NI within the single market rules in default of a wider agreement that functionally agrees that. It's a reasonable starting point that anything Labour worked towards would have to do the same. What they're proposing doesn't.

Leaving aside the fact that the whole thing is a crock of shit, May screwed this whole thing up in December 2017 with the agreement she had to concede to then on Ireland in order to keep some kind of process moving forward. The media let her respond to that agreement by letting her and her government say 'no, no, that's not what we agreed'.
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Re: Wednesday 16th January 2019

Post by PaulfromYorkshire »

@hsom

Yes Corbyn and Starmer have got Labour in a place where they can be a voice of reason and consensus.

Fingers crossed!
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Re: Wednesday 16th January 2019

Post by citizenJA »

The majority of MPs, having voted against the best leadership could manage, have no reputable choice other than declaring no confidence in that failed leadership.
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Re: Wednesday 16th January 2019

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adam wrote:
PaulfromYorkshire wrote:snippity snip snip Backstop no longer needed.
You're going to need to convince me about this.
the United Kingdom will maintain full alignment with those rules of the Internal Market and the Customs Union which, now or in the future, support North-South cooperation, the all-island economy and the protection of the 1998 Agreement.
December 2017 agreeement. My emphasis. The withdrawal agreement as it stands meets the requirement of keeping NI within the single market rules in default of a wider agreement that functionally agrees that. It's a reasonable starting point that anything Labour worked towards would have to do the same. What they're proposing doesn't.

Leaving aside the fact that the whole thing is a crock of shit, May screwed this whole thing up in December 2017 with the agreement she had to concede to then on Ireland in order to keep some kind of process moving forward. The media let her respond to that agreement by letting her and her government say 'no, no, that's not what we agreed'.
The elephant in the room is freedom of movement. But we all know that developments there are possible even without Brexit. It's essential that individuals can move freely from Ireland into NI to do their business, study, see family etc., but that needn't give them the right to live there permanently.
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Re: Wednesday 16th January 2019

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PaulfromYorkshire wrote:The elephant in the room is freedom of movement. But we all know that developments there are possible even without Brexit. It's essential that individuals can move freely from Ireland into NI to do their business, study, see family etc., but that needn't give them the right to live there permanently.
The problem with this is that I find it difficult to believe that the rest of the EU - all of the countries individually, because I think it would have to be all of them without dissent - would gift the UK free movement of any but not all of services, capital, labour and goods without the UK meeting all of the 'costs' (financial and legal/administrative) that they all have to meet. One way or another, that's what leaving the Irish border as it is now will mean unless we have a deal that keeps either the whole UK or just NI functionally within the rules of the custom's union (which might be dealt with by a more general FTA which seems to be a genuinely possible endpoint) and the custom's union (which doesn't, given our red lines).

Labour policy at some point needs to deal with the question of whether we separate NI out from the rest of the UK economy (in which case there should be a referendum on that question, at least NI wide, arguably UK wide) or we keep the whole UK functionally within the single market as well as the custom's union.

If it's the second of them - why on earth would anybody chose that over just remaining? Not a rhetorical question.
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Re: Wednesday 16th January 2019

Post by howsillyofme1 »

I think a fair criticism of Labour's plan and 6 tests is why not Remain. I also think it is unfair to be too critical though of people who are not party to any negotiations and discussions. What a Labour deal or recommendation would be is not possible to say

On FoM...legally that ends on March 29th and the question is what replaces it.

All I can say the laissez faire current application of FoM in UK is a mile away from what I experience here. There is plenty of opportunity to find something that complies but brings in more rigour. The problem is it would probably need a UK wide id cards and registration - the UK lack of official id seems ridiculous to me (I have a friend who has just returned to UK and cannot provide an accepted id with address so cannot open a bank account). The continued use of utility bills is laughable
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Re: Wednesday 16th January 2019

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adam wrote:
PaulfromYorkshire wrote:The elephant in the room is freedom of movement. But we all know that developments there are possible even without Brexit. It's essential that individuals can move freely from Ireland into NI to do their business, study, see family etc., but that needn't give them the right to live there permanently.
The problem with this is that I find it difficult to believe that the rest of the EU - all of the countries individually, because I think it would have to be all of them without dissent - would gift the UK free movement of any but not all of services, capital, labour and goods without the UK meeting all of the 'costs' (financial and legal/administrative) that they all have to meet. One way or another, that's what leaving the Irish border as it is now will mean unless we have a deal that keeps either the whole UK or just NI functionally within the rules of the custom's union (which might be dealt with by a more general FTA which seems to be a genuinely possible endpoint) and the custom's union (which doesn't, given our red lines).

Labour policy at some point needs to deal with the question of whether we separate NI out from the rest of the UK economy (in which case there should be a referendum on that question, at least NI wide, arguably UK wide) or we keep the whole UK functionally within the single market as well as the custom's union.

If it's the second of them - why on earth would anybody chose that over just remaining? Not a rhetorical question.
Don't forget we can probably do more or less what I propose on FoM without Brexit.
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Re: Wednesday 16th January 2019

Post by howsillyofme1 »

PfY

My experience

Arrive and passport scanned
3 months free visit
After 3 months have to demonstrate I have health insurance and register with commune
Given temporary permit for 1 year
If get job then get 5 year permit
If not then temporary can be renewed or not depending on circumstances
After 5 years can request settlement permit but requires demonstration of integration
Renew every 5 years and can be downgraded

All permits cost 100 pounds each issuance

Police can demand to see permit and any contracts etc will need this. For the Swiss there is a state id card that has same function

Every time I leave the passport us scanned

There is no reason why an acceptable compromise is not possible. The only caveat is that EU and UK citizens are treated equally so if EU need id then so do you. If jobs are available then EU have to be treated equally and allowed to apply and then settle in country (Swiss have even got a bit of concession on this too)

Let Labour negotiate and see what the deal is. Do not assume it will be the same as Mays which is confounded by her red lines. The backstop is an issue for her because she has such strict red lines that no-one can thinks it will not need to be used (or an extension to transition with extra cash and rule taking) as an alternative
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Re: Wednesday 16th January 2019

Post by GetYou »

Good points from Ken Clarke. Head burying in sand response from May.
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Re: Wednesday 16th January 2019

Post by Willow904 »

adam wrote:
PaulfromYorkshire wrote:The elephant in the room is freedom of movement. But we all know that developments there are possible even without Brexit. It's essential that individuals can move freely from Ireland into NI to do their business, study, see family etc., but that needn't give them the right to live there permanently.
The problem with this is that I find it difficult to believe that the rest of the EU - all of the countries individually, because I think it would have to be all of them without dissent - would gift the UK free movement of any but not all of services, capital, labour and goods without the UK meeting all of the 'costs' (financial and legal/administrative) that they all have to meet. One way or another, that's what leaving the Irish border as it is now will mean unless we have a deal that keeps either the whole UK or just NI functionally within the rules of the custom's union (which might be dealt with by a more general FTA which seems to be a genuinely possible endpoint) and the custom's union (which doesn't, given our red lines).

Labour policy at some point needs to deal with the question of whether we separate NI out from the rest of the UK economy (in which case there should be a referendum on that question, at least NI wide, arguably UK wide) or we keep the whole UK functionally within the single market as well as the custom's union.

If it's the second of them - why on earth would anybody chose that over just remaining? Not a rhetorical question.
Well, there are some rational reasons and they revolve around the concept of "ever closer union". Our opt outs and decision not to join the Euro has put the UK at odds with the principle of ever closer union for some years. Free movement aside, much of the leave vote appears to be an emotional rather than practical decision. That is to say, removing ourselves from the risk of further political integration in future seems as big a motivator as reversing any particular part of our current relationship. I'm thinking particularly of things such as the fear of an EU army happening at some point. If the vote is as much about changing the future direction of our relationship with the EU as it is about changing specific things that happen now, there's a genuine point to leaving the EU but remaining in the single market. Not only does it change some things right away - such as CAP or fisheries - but it changes our potential future. Gone is the pressure, through ever closer union, to adopt the Euro or contribute to an EU army. Meanwhile the introduction, through whatever specific arrangement, of a major economy to the single market from outside the EU will inevitably change the relationship between the two and the idea that the UK would have no influence over how such a relationship would evolve is a view I find to be on the very pessimistic end of probability.

Ultimately though, I do agree. The choices seem to be Canada type FTA, but sacrificing the integrity of the United Kingdom; single market and customs union, fulfilling the referendum mandate, but sacrificing a lot of control over rules and regs; or remain in the EU.

All have some things in their favour. All have some big drawbacks (we should never have seriously considered leaving the EU at this time in the way we did, but it's done now and so trying to remain after trying to leave will come with downsides, even if it really is the most sensible thing to do).

In some ways, I could live with any of the options if done right for the right reasons, but personally I feel the UK needs to be in the single market to remain aligned to the EU with no possibility of being aligned to our disadvantage to the US instead, which appears to be the likely outcome of a harder Brexit, if not immediately, eventually as the right wing will never be out of power forever.
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Re: Wednesday 16th January 2019

Post by adam »

You make lots of good points, although to date we have successfully removed ourselves from all sorts of issues about 'ever closer union' - especially on currency union and on Schengen, so it seems, at the very least, overwhelmingly arguable that we would be able to continue to do so from where we are now.

The big issue about fisheries in particular appears to be that we are fighting for the right to protect the thing we don't need - exclusive access to our waters - at the cost of the thing we do need - free and frictionless access to european markets for our fish. It's a good candidate for summing up the whole mess.
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Re: Wednesday 16th January 2019

Post by AnatolyKasparov »

#FBPE types *still* screaming at Corbyn not May, I see........
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Re: Wednesday 16th January 2019

Post by adam »

I'm not sure but I think, with SF's 7 MPs not in the house and assuming Tuplip Sidiqq is not there today and not paired, that if every opposition (ie not Tory or DUP) MP votes with the government we will get something like a 325/312 government win against the motion (discounting a deputy speaker from each side) - which would suggest that whilst there is no indication of any government-side MP voting against, what you'd need to find is about 6 or 7 government side MPs to say they are going to vote against, or about a dozen saying they were going to abstain. (Not sure where Sylvia Herman stands. I've counted party affiliations from the 2017 vote ignoring those who have since lost the whip on one side or the other).
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Re: Wednesday 16th January 2019

Post by AnatolyKasparov »

If nothing else, today's vote might be useful in seeing if any MPs on either side can't be relied on "in extremis".

(I expect Labour will be looking with interest at what its former currently whipless members do)
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Re: Wednesday 16th January 2019

Post by PaulfromYorkshire »

Great discussions on here today :-)
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Re: Wednesday 16th January 2019

Post by Willow904 »

I'm only reading it on the G live blog, but May is coming across pretty badly so far. I rather doubt her delivery style can improve much on the written message.
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Re: Wednesday 16th January 2019

Post by citizenJA »

Willow904 wrote:I'm only reading it on the G live blog, but May is coming across pretty badly so far. I rather doubt her delivery style can improve much on the written message.
May says the government is building a country that is fairer and that works for everyone.
It will carry on doing that, acting in the national interest, she says.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/li ... cfe6d9117d" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
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Re: Wednesday 16th January 2019

Post by citizenJA »

It's pointless attempting engagement with May
She's impossible
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Re: Wednesday 16th January 2019

Post by Willow904 »

For instance:
Is May saying she will rule out under any circumstances the UK joining a customs union?

May says the government must deliver what people voted for.
Except the public didn't vote to leave the customs union when May made it a manifesto pledge in the 2017 GE. Instead, they took away the majority she needed to do so, leading precisely to the impasse now that has led to this vote of no confidence.

:wall:
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Re: Wednesday 16th January 2019

Post by citizenJA »

the situation is absurd
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Re: Wednesday 16th January 2019

Post by adam »

citizenJA wrote:the situation is absurd
Just to make it more absurd
Strong sense of a holding status from May and No10. Key for the next six hours is not to say anything that would upset the apple cart in either direction. Allies are suggesting there will be much more to say later tonight.
Is she going to win the confidence vote and then announce things that would have cost her votes if she'd announced earlier? That would be almost funny.
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Re: Wednesday 16th January 2019

Post by adam »

Copy and paste from the guardian's blog but it's worth it
She says Byrne intervened just as she was getting to the point in her speech where she was going to talk about the economy. Byrne was the Labour Treasury who left a note for the Tories saying there as no money left.

Byrne says he was leaving a note for his successor in accordance with a tradition going back to Churchill. He was proud to be part of a Labour Treasury team that stopped a depression, he says. He says the Tories backed Labour’s spending plans. And now, under the Tories, the debate has double.
Good on you Liam.
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Re: Wednesday 16th January 2019

Post by AnatolyKasparov »

I have never been a Byrne fan, but still utterly despise David Laws for "sneaking" in that fashion.
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Re: Wednesday 16th January 2019

Post by citizenJA »

It's regrettable the adversarial political system currently in place doesn't allow for greater nuance. There's no room. It's either, 'you're with us' or 'you're against us'. It's all or nothing. I think May and her minority government are broken and their continued leadership isn't in the best interests of the country. MPs need to vote they've no confidence in government today.
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Re: Wednesday 16th January 2019

Post by citizenJA »

oh, great
Government conscription of education personnel for the Tory Brexit effort
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Re: Wednesday 16th January 2019

Post by HindleA »

https://www.gov.uk/government/publicati ... espondence" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

https://www.gov.uk/government/publicati ... tions-2019" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
HindleA
Prime Minister
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Re: Wednesday 16th January 2019

Post by HindleA »

https://www.theguardian.com/society/201 ... ion-credit" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
PaulfromYorkshire
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Re: Wednesday 16th January 2019

Post by PaulfromYorkshire »

Great Tweet

Dawn Foster
@DawnHFoster

Universities minister Sam Gyimah did not explain why he was knocking on constituents’ doors asking if they knew the difference between the IRA and IMF. Maybe we’ll never know.
HindleA
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Re: Wednesday 16th January 2019

Post by HindleA »

https://www.theguardian.com/society/201 ... -community" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
PaulfromYorkshire
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Re: Wednesday 16th January 2019

Post by PaulfromYorkshire »

Apart from Gyimah isn't Unis minister any more.
PaulfromYorkshire
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Re: Wednesday 16th January 2019

Post by PaulfromYorkshire »

Tiger wetness Tweets resign in double trouble for Corbyn critic giving supportive speech (3,9).
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