Saturday 14th & Sunday 15th December 2019

[tinybgoat]

In my more cynical moments I do wonder how much interest *certain people* will show about AS in Labour once Corbyn has gone.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/who-can-r ... -semitism/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
"Who might replace Labour’s Corbyn and how have they responded to anti-Semitism? and how have they responded to anti-Semitism?"

Unlike the rest of the candidates to succeed Corbyn, Phillips is not a member of Labour Friends of Palestine & the Middle East. Rather, she is a member of Labour Friends of Israel.

[citizenJA]

Just a few votes changed some constituencies - literally. A handful of votes.
I've just learned Dennis Skinner lost his seat.

[tinybgoat]

https://www.theguardian.com/law/2019/de ... libel-case" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
"Judge makes preliminary ruling in Carole Cadwalladr libel case"

From a couple of days ago - Nice to have some positive news & worth reading whole article,

In drawing his conclusions Saini cautioned against an overly legalistic interpretation of the meaning of words in resolving legal disputes, and emphasised that the ordinary reader or listener would not minutely analyse possible interpretations of words like a libel lawyer.

“Lawyers (and I include judges in that category) cannot resist turning any exercise where language is being considered into an exercise in construction of words,” he said.

[PorFavor]

Just a few votes changed some constituencies - literally. A handful of votes.
I've just learned Dennis Skinner lost his seat.

Never been a big fan, I must confess.

[citizenJA]

Just a few votes changed some constituencies - literally. A handful of votes.
I've just learned Dennis Skinner lost his seat.

Never been a big fan, I must confess.

I understand.

[AnatolyKasparov]

He passed his sell-by date a while ago if truth be told, maybe should have retired as an MP at 65 as he originally planned.

This time round, he was too ill to do any campaigning and didn't turn up at the count to hear the end of an era officially confirmed.

All just a bit sad.

[citizenJA]

Does Labour have to have one leader? Don't give the media one person to knock around.

[AFinch]

Tommy Corbyn on twitter. He attached an image of a document. The headline is:

From the three proudest sons on the planet

" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

The feed is interesting. Many, many in agreement with his sons.

By the way I think Corbyn is right to step down.

The place on social media (Reddit) where I found this is much less kind to him, of course.

[citizenJA]

Goodnight, everyone.
love,
cJA

[gilsey]

Who will be father of the house?

[frog222]

In my more cynical moments I do wonder how much interest *certain people* will show about AS in Labour once Corbyn has gone.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/who-can-r ... -semitism/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
"Who might replace Labour’s Corbyn and how have they responded to anti-Semitism? and how have they responded to anti-Semitism?"

Unlike the rest of the candidates to succeed Corbyn, Phillips is not a member of Labour Friends of Palestine & the Middle East. Rather, she is a member of Labour Friends of Israel.

Thanks for the link TBG !
Noting this week's attacks still continuing on Corbyn's supposed AS we can expect any of the shadow ministers mentioned to be equally susceptible to Israeli - inspired destabilisation operations.

The only safe pair of hands is ... <b>Foghorn ! </b>

PS the only 'possible' I can visualise calling out the nigglers with a resounding " BOLLOCKS!" is Emily Thornberry

haha, we do live in interesting times

[PorFavor]

By the way - apologies to anyone who may have received a mysterious private message from me, yesterday (about foxes). I got in a bit of a tangle.


Edited - typo

[Lost Soul]

From another forum I visit - primarily climbing and hill walking. Interesting to read the range of views.

https://www.ukhillwalking.com/forums/of ... ect-713601" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[MsChin]

He passed his sell-by date a while ago if truth be told, maybe should have retired as an MP at 65 as he originally planned.

This time round, he was too ill to do any campaigning and didn't turn up at the count to hear the end of an era officially confirmed.

All just a bit sad.

Yes, Skinner should have gone ages ago and if nothing else, should have heeded the warning when his brother lost his council seat at NE Derbyshire last May. He's not been an active campaigner for many years and has relied on others in the CLP to do the donkey work, many of whom are not that young themselves. I also understood he'd just had a hip (?) replacement hence was unable to attend the count.

I still feel it's a great shame to end an illustrious career this way. I would have loved to see him as Father of the House.

[AnatolyKasparov]

Who will be father of the house?

Sir Peter Bottomley, I think?

[PorFavor]

Who will be father of the house?

Sir Peter Bottomley, I think?

Yes.

[adam]

Generally, but particularly in support of AK's post about vote share in elections over the years - I'd be more impressed with 'we always knew this was going to happen' (which basically is Nick Cohen's 'We fucking told you so you fucking idiots') if they hadn't all been saying exactly the same thing before 2017. 'Nobody was ever going to vote for this manifesto... except they did, in very significant numbers, two years ago. Nobody is ever going to vote for him... except they did, in very significant numbers, two years ago. Brexit has broken the country - and will literally do so through the next parliament.

I think we need to take people at face value, their views, their beliefs. People know full well that Johnson is full of shit. They know - because they must do, because it's completely obvious and any other interpretation is obviously nonsense - that there is no prospect of a deal being done by the end of 2020. They know - because they must do, because is's completely obvious and any other interpretation is obviously nonsense - that we still have to make a decision about how much sovereignty we're prepared to give up, and how many rules made by other people that we won't have any say in we will choose to accept, in order to finalise some kind of trade deal.

People must know this, and we must assume that people know this. People aren't stupid. They just don't care.

[adam]

Who will be father of the house?

Sir Peter Bottomley, I think?

Yes.

Have you just inadvertantly disclosed your secret identity?

[HindleA]

The Party was monumentally stupid in facillitating his name on the ballot for the leadership.The hard left mentality is pernicious I don't give a fuck about how many members or attendees at a bloody rally,it means the square root of fuck all.The media bias and billionaire relentless refrain was excruciating,childish and patronising in the extreme.Self pitying hard done toness,which does no more than self confirm and as ever provide the excuse of not winning.Despite repeated "advice"to fuck off out of a now somehow deemed socialist party (inconvenient non socialist policies mysteriously ignored)I remain

[adam]

But the entire point here is that 2017 suggests how close to success this came. If that hadn't happened, if the experience of the leadership was a string of frankly disappointing national rounds of local polls, very poor EU elections and then this GE then there would be no argument. But that didn't happen.

[AnatolyKasparov]

And not letting a left winger on the ballot in 2015 could have had all sorts of negative consequences.

You only have to look at the state of certain once mighty social democratic parties on the continent to see that.

[MsChin]

But the entire point here is that 2017 suggests how close to success this came. If that hadn't happened, if the experience of the leadership was a string of frankly disappointing national rounds of local polls, very poor EU elections and then this GE then there would be no argument. But that didn't happen.

Maybe nationally, but not in areas like mine in South Yorkshire nor over the county border in Bolsover, where Skinner's majority fell massively in 2017, and in Killamarsh where the first Tories were elected to the parish council.

I'm with our Hindle here. The writing's been on the wall for a while and no-one was listening.

[MsChin]

And not letting a left winger on the ballot in 2015 could have had all sorts of negative consequences.

You only have to look at the state of certain once mighty social democratic parties on the continent to see that.

Indeed. But why choose someone who would be perceived as yet another middle class left winger who has lot of grand ideas but no real idea of how the other half live?

I genuinely like Corbyn but he was never going to appeal to yer average working class northerner.

[AnatolyKasparov]

It wasn't really a "choice" tbh, Corbyn was literally the only left winger willing and able to stand four years ago. And even then he did so reluctantly.

[MsChin]

It wasn't really a "choice" tbh, Corbyn was literally the only left winger willing and able to stand four years ago. And even then he did so reluctantly.

Fair point. You'll have to forgive me for just turning up and whingeing, I know you're all just as gutted as I am.

[adam]

And not letting a left winger on the ballot in 2015 could have had all sorts of negative consequences.

You only have to look at the state of certain once mighty social democratic parties on the continent to see that.

Indeed. But why choose someone who would be perceived as yet another middle class left winger who has lot of grand ideas but no real idea of how the other half live?

I genuinely like Corbyn but he was never going to appeal to yer average working class northerner.

Most of labour's gains in 2017 were in the midlands, the north and wales. The places the tories beat them this time. If 2017 didn't happen, this argument would be irrefutable. But 2017 did happen and this argument seems weak because of it.

None of this whinging by me helps where we are now, obviously. Part of my whinging is the fact that Miliband, and Brown, faced exactly the same kind of shit from the press, who don't hate particularly left wing labour leaders, they just hate labour leaders.

[RogerOThornhill]

From tomorrow's front pages...

Boris Johnson has drawn up plans to run a "revolutionary" government that will see ministers sacked, Whitehall departments abolished and civil servants replaced by external experts in a bid to "reshape" the economy, The Sunday Times writes.

*cough* Bonfire of the Quangos *cough*

I'm sure that'll go just fine...

[RogerOThornhill]

From the Sunday Telegraph...

Dominic Cummings, Mr Johnson’s chief aide, is to spearhead plans for radical reforms to the civil service, including a review of the processes for hiring and firing officials, to ensure Whitehall delivers the Prime Minister’s agenda.

...a year later.

*shit happens*
"This is awful. Why didn't someone tell me this would happen?"
"Erm...you fired them last year Prime Minister"

If the experience of free schools and academies is repeated, lost will be done too quickly, and things will fail because nothing has been put in place until it's too late.

[gilsey]

Good morning.

It's been snowing.

[gilsey]

If the experience of free schools and academies is repeated, lots will be done too quickly, and things will fail because nothing has been put in place until it's too late.

Maintained schools in England outperform academies and free schools in national exams taken at the end of year 6, and pupils in multi-academy trusts do worse on average, figures show.

[gilsey]

From tomorrow's front pages...

Boris Johnson has drawn up plans to run a "revolutionary" government that will see ministers sacked, Whitehall departments abolished and civil servants replaced by external experts in a bid to "reshape" the economy, The Sunday Times writes.

*cough* Bonfire of the Quangos *cough*

I'm sure that'll go just fine...

I thought we'd had enough of experts?

[gilsey]

I would love it if someone, anyone, would go beyond Corbyn being the wrong choice for leader and tell me a viable story of how one of the other candidates could have won an election?

People have forgotten that New Labour won because the tories had lost their reputation for economic competence in 1992.

Black Wednesday occurred in the United Kingdom on 16 September 1992, when the British government was forced to withdraw the pound sterling from the European Exchange Rate Mechanism after a failed attempt to keep the pound above the lower currency exchange limit mandated by the ERM.

Labour's failure to fight back against the charge that they crashed the economy in 2008/9 has been absolutely catastrophic and the 'moderates' are the ones responsible, personally I will never not blame Ed Balls for the loss in 2015. Which of Cooper, Burnham, etc would have fought back? Only Corbyn and McDonnell have taken it on.

Look at this today, from Flint. It is so stupid in macroeconomic terms I despair.

Referring to Labour’s spending promises, she says “it was all free” and working class people are wise to that.

Labour have no hope unless and until they can teach the working class, all over again, that there is a magic money tree and it's called the economic multiplier.
Keynes taught us this in the 1930s.
Attlee showed us again in 1945.
Where is the Labour candidate with the economic literacy to stand up as McDonnell has? Labour's performance in 2017 meant the tories had to move on austerity to win this time.

While I'm having a rant I'll just throw in that the lazy description of Corbyn as hard left is ridiculous.

[Willow904]

But the entire point here is that 2017 suggests how close to success this came. If that hadn't happened, if the experience of the leadership was a string of frankly disappointing national rounds of local polls, very poor EU elections and then this GE then there would be no argument. But that didn't happen.

The 2017 manifesto was restrained by moderating forces. The 2019 manifesto was clearly the radical offer Corbyn and McDonnell had wanted all along.

The 2017 campaign benefited from some of the experience of previous campaigns. By 2019 the old guard had moved on and Corbyn appointments and ruling body were firmly in charge.

The EU elections were barely fought, good long standing Labour MEPs were given no support, the results were dire.

Although it was clear PR and Brexit was going to impact Labour heavily in the EU vote, it's the way the campaign was poorly, almost negligently run, that I'm getting at here. Labour no longer felt like the heavy hitting professional force it once was. And this GE their presence locally was the weakest yet. Back in 2010 there were Labour posters up all over the village. No more. Perhaps GEs aren't fought with posters anymore, but whatever they are fought with now Labour sure as hell haven't got enough if it. For all the incredible membership numbers, our local activist base has dwindled, run almost single handedy now by our lovely local Labour councillor who receives as much support as ever in local elections but was unable to rouse that support for Labour in the national vote.

So, while everyone else will no doubt concentrate on policies and personalities, when asking what went wrong perhaps a little thought needs to be given to organisation, professionalism, experience and what's been happening at the local level. The electoral machine appears to be working in the cities, the apparatus to elect Labour mayors seems to be working for the national vote, but once you get out of the main cities Labour appears to be in serious decline and a new figurehead and set of policies is unlikely to change that on its own.

[gilsey]

The 2019 manifesto was clearly the radical offer Corbyn and McDonnell had wanted all along.

The fundamental investment proposal was absolutely right for the country and we have missed out on a fantastic opportunity to move forward.

[gilsey]

Don't disagree about the campaign.

[Willow904]

I would love it if someone, anyone, would go beyond Corbyn being the wrong choice for leader and tell me a viable story of how one of the other candidates could have won an election?

People have forgotten that New Labour won because the tories had lost their reputation for economic competence in 1992.

Black Wednesday occurred in the United Kingdom on 16 September 1992, when the British government was forced to withdraw the pound sterling from the European Exchange Rate Mechanism after a failed attempt to keep the pound above the lower currency exchange limit mandated by the ERM.

Labour's failure to fight back against the charge that they crashed the economy in 2008/9 has been absolutely catastrophic and the 'moderates' are the ones responsible, personally I will never n!ot blame Ed Balls for the loss in 2015. Which of Cooper, Burnham, etc would have fought back? Only Corbyn and McDonnell have taken it on.

Look at this today, from Flint. It is so stupid in macroeconomic terms I despair.

Referring to Labour’s spending promises, she says “it was all free” and working class people are wise to that.

Labour have no hope unless and until they can teach the working class, all over again, that there is a magic money tree and it's called the economic multiplier.
Keynes taught us this in the 1930s.
Attlee showed us again in 1945.
Where is the Labour candidate with the economic literacy to stand up as McDonnell has? Labour's performance in 2017 meant the tories had to move on austerity to win this time.

While I'm having a rant I'll just throw in that the lazy description of Corbyn as hard left is ridiculous.

I thought the panel of economists McDonnell put together to try to counter the partisan attacks on Labour's economic competence was a sound idea but the early attempts to gain impregnable economic credibility were quickly abandoned. So Labour entered yet another GE campaign with no plan to rebut the predictable biased presentation of their economic agenda. Even I was left with an uncomfortable sense that it all sounded too good to be true. To the naturally cautious older voter it sounded, as I've seen one person quoted, like a fairy tale. It was like McDonnell understood at the outset what the biggest hurdle to getting the country to embrace a more socialist agenda would be and then somehow forgot.

[AnatolyKasparov]

I don't think that the manifesto this time was "too radical" - not least because radicalism is what we now need.

I do think that the 2017 one was more coherent, however. And concentrating on a few key themes, as we did then, is what brings electoral success.

[Willow904]

The 2019 manifesto was clearly the radical offer Corbyn and McDonnell had wanted all along.

The fundamental investment proposal was absolutely right for the country and we have missed out on a fantastic opportunity to move forward.

There are details and priorities within the manifesto that I would take issue with, but the capital investment plan certainly wasn't one of them. My comment, however, was to highlight differences between 2017 and 2019 that may explain the different results, other than Brexit. I emphasise the "may", though. I'm speculating, not asserting.

[gilsey]

The proposals on the environment were underdeveloped in 2017.

My comment originally started 'Apart from broadband/rail fares/WASPI the fundamental investment proposal was right'. I took it out because I don't think it made more than a tiny difference. If people had bought the need for the big investment programme the bells and whistles wouldn't have put them off.
I've seen complaints that the platform hadn't been laid out well enough in advance but I don't blame the leadership for that, I think it's the effect of the MSM not giving them any space.
In 2017 they were at least given space once the campaign started, it was noticeably different this time.

[gilsey]

It was like McDonnell understood at the outset what the biggest hurdle to getting the country to embrace a more socialist agenda would be and then somehow forgot.

He didn't forget the message, he forgot the need to keep repeating it.

[Willow904]

The proposals on the environment were underdeveloped in 2017.

My comment originally started 'Apart from broadband/rail fares/WASPI the fundamental investment proposal was right'. I took it out because I don't think it made more than a tiny difference. If people had bought the need for the big investment programme the bells and whistles wouldn't have put them off.
I've seen complaints that the platform hadn't been laid out well enough in advance but I don't blame the leadership for that, I think it's the effect of the MSM not giving them any space.
In 2017 they were at least given space once the campaign started, it was noticeably different this time.

I'm not so sure. Labour started out with a fully costed manifesto that would at least have held them steady on economic grounds against a Tory party that is never held to the same standards and then proceeded to torpedo it with an enormous unfunded offer to Waspi women that wasn't in it. To "right a wrong" that Labour hadn't laid anywhere near enough groundwork for to convince voters it was worthy of borrowing a shitload of money for. The point made that Theresa May would be a qualifying recipient just underlying the strange incoherence of priorities at the heart of Labour's offer.

[Sky'sGoneOut]

That article on the Guardian from Sedgefield is heartbreaking. My ex's Dad came from Trimdon, we used to go to the Durham parade with all the banners, I just can't get my head around it. If they didn't like Corbyn because he wasn't 'patriotic' enough that was their right, but to vote fucking Conservative? For those who did my contempt knows no bounds. Voting Tory in Sedgefield is like Susan George in Straw Dogs voting for her rapist, same for the idiots in Blyth. They make me sick to my stomach.

[gilsey]

I entirely agree with you about WASPI, but there was more support for it than I expected from other quarters, not least the SNP, so I'm not sure about the effect.


pto

[gilsey]

“When the axe came into the woods, many of the trees said, “At least the handle is one of us.”

[gilsey]

I think the most disturbing line I've seen on the GE is this, quote from a piece in the G but I've seen it elsewhere.

in Wrexham, north Wales – another formerly solid Labour seat that elected a Conservative for the first time in its history. Mike Evans, whose family has run the ME Butchers business since 1911, described Johnson’s victory as “fantastic news”.

He has voted for Labour in the past but believes the Tories will bring about the change he thinks is needed in north Wales. “I didn’t believe in Corbyn’s policies – his changes to public services went too far. We’d have gone backwards.”

Asked if he liked Johnson, Evans sighed. “I think he’s the best of a bad bunch but it’s brilliant that the town has turned blue. It’s been Labour for too long. We need a change. Things can’t get worse.”

So this is from the FT

John Burn-Murdoch
@jburnmurdoch
K we now have a new leader for strongest correlation, and I think this is narratively significant:

The share of workers in low-skilled jobs was a bigger predictor of swing than either Brexit vote or graduates.

Suggests this was more working class revolt than Brexit election.

So the working class revolted by..... voting for the incumbent government?

I know there's been plenty of talk about Leave voters not knowing what they were voting for, but the idea that people don't actually know who the government is, is terrifying.

[Willow904]

That so many working class people in Labour seats had the same idea at the exact same time that the best answer to poor Tory governance was more Tories is certainly curious and not a little suspicious. No doubt if we were privy to the secretive and unregulated targeted online advertising these voters were exposed to it would make a lot more sense. It would also be possible for the opposition to attempt to counter it. Anyone who suggests cheating isn't a significant factor in who wins has clearly never followed F1. And now Johnson has a majority it's going to be harder than ever to put a stop to it.

[AnatolyKasparov]

Not denying all the above, but since when were butchers (and similar small tradespeople) "working class"?

Increasingly, it seems to just "mean" anybody who doesn't have a degree.

[gilsey]

Fair point.

Also, many young people with degrees are still living with their parents and in insecure jobs, while their school pals who became tradesmen are doing nicely.

I think it's fair to say that a butcher in Wrexham would be viewed as working class by a London journo.
Our former neighbour's father owned a butcher's shop, possibly more than one, I never asked, she was educated privately and certainly considered herself to have moved on.

It's not a very useful descriptor nowadays.

[Willow904]

Average teacher pay is £28,000. Teachers have at least a degree, often a post grad qualification too. Teachers are generally considered "middle class".

Average plumber pay is £30,000. Plumbers are usually educated to GCSE or 'A' level. Apprenticeship with an already qualified plumber is only route to qualification. Plumbers are generally considered "working class".

One has a vested interest in better funding for public services as offered by Labour and one has a vested interest in stopping free movement of people (cheaper competition) from the EU as offered by the Tories.

It really isn't as simple as "working" or "middle" class, is it?

[citizenJA]

Good afternoon, everyone.