Friday 18th June 2021

Post by **refitman** » Fri 18 Jun, 2021 6:43 am

Morning all.

Post by **refitman** » Fri 18 Jun, 2021 7:24 am

Post by **refitman** » Fri 18 Jun, 2021 8:17 am

tinyclanger2 · Post by **tinyclanger2** » Fri 18 Jun, 2021 10:22 am

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Fri 18 Jun, 2021 10:43 am

Oh and everybody, this result is b***er all to do with Starmer.

Labour actually did still worse in the Winchester byelection (strictly speaking, GE rerun) in late 1997 when it was pushing 60% in the polls.

Willow904 · Post by **Willow904** » Fri 18 Jun, 2021 10:45 am

After 5 years of defending the Tories during the Coalition years the more liberal-leaning Libdem voters went blue in 2015 (leading to a complete Libdem wipeout to the Tories' benefit) but they've been steadily building back those votes since so the Libdem increase in votes makes sense. But what on earth happened to the Tories? They lost way more than the Libdems gained. Where did all their voters go? It's like 10,000 Tory voters just vanished into thin air.

tinyclanger2 · Post by **tinyclanger2** » Fri 18 Jun, 2021 10:51 am

Cool.

gilsey · Post by **gilsey** » Fri 18 Jun, 2021 10:52 am

gilsey · Post by **gilsey** » Fri 18 Jun, 2021 10:57 am

Willow904 wrote: ↑Fri 18 Jun, 2021 10:45 am what on earth happened to the Tories? They lost way more than the Libdems gained. Where did all their voters go? It's like 10,000 Tory voters just vanished into thin air.

The Labour voters vanishing in Hartlepool stayed at home, the tory voters here switched to LD, so in effect counted double?

Overall turnout was 52% against 77% in 2019, I think, standard for a byelection.

Willow904 · Post by **Willow904** » Fri 18 Jun, 2021 11:06 am

AnatolyKasparov wrote: ↑Fri 18 Jun, 2021 10:43 am Oh and everybody, this result is b***er all to do with Starmer.

Labour actually did still worse in the Winchester byelection (strictly speaking, GE rerun) in late 1997 when it was pushing 60% in the polls.

The Greens also lost votes, though not as much as Labour, so I'm guessing there was some tactical voting. Which would actually be a good thing, if that's the case, as Libdems taking seats off Tories where Labour can't win is kind of key to Labour winning a majority.

gilsey · Post by **gilsey** » Fri 18 Jun, 2021 11:16 am

Willow904 · Post by **Willow904** » Fri 18 Jun, 2021 11:18 am

gilsey wrote: ↑Fri 18 Jun, 2021 10:57 am
Willow904 wrote: ↑Fri 18 Jun, 2021 10:45 am what on earth happened to the Tories? They lost way more than the Libdems gained. Where did all their voters go? It's like 10,000 Tory voters just vanished into thin air.
The Labour voters vanishing in Hartlepool stayed at home, the tory voters here switched to LD, so in effect counted double?

Overall turnout was 52% against 77% in 2019, I think, standard for a byelection.

Not really. The Tories lost 17,000 votes and the Libdems gained 7,000. Turnout was down, as you say, but doesn't seem evenly spread, even if all the Libdem gain was at Tory expense. I can't see how the Tories lost that many votes without quite a lot of their voters disproportionately staying home. Could just be complacency from the large Tory majority of course, but it's definitely the first real upset for the current government I think.

Willow904 · Post by **Willow904** » Fri 18 Jun, 2021 11:37 am

From the G, from Ed Davey's speech

We can see us going up. This election result is signalling that. We’ve got huge responsibility. This Government is out of touch, it’s very right. They have trampled all over our civil liberties.

I think this is very important. When the the Libdems lost votes to the Tories post-Coalition it was to a right-wing but (at least superficially) also quite liberal Tory party under David Cameron. Boris Johnson has since steered the party towards a more populist, less liberal incarnation, in part to woo the socially conservative working class voters of the so-called 'red wall'. Is this a sign that the Tories can't align the demands of both socially conservative and socially liberal voters any more than Labour can?

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Fri 18 Jun, 2021 11:46 am

There was significant Labour to Tory switching in Hartlepool, the result wouldn't have been anything like as bad without it.

gilsey · Post by **gilsey** » Fri 18 Jun, 2021 12:05 pm

Willow904 wrote: ↑Fri 18 Jun, 2021 11:37 am From the G, from Ed Davey's speech
Is this a sign that the Tories can't align the demands of both socially conservative and socially liberal voters any more than Labour can?

You would think so. Interesting times.

Willow904 · Post by **Willow904** » Fri 18 Jun, 2021 12:07 pm

Also from the G:

Education secretary Gavin Williamson has urged pupils to keep regularly taking coronavirus tests twice a week to help “break chains of transmission” reports PA.

In an open letter to secondary school pupils and their parents in England he said: “With the increase in cases with variants of concern, it is important to continue regular testing in order to detect cases of coronavirus, stay ahead of the virus and keep Covid out of the classroom.”

Parents were co-opted without consultation to do these tests, on their own time, with no real explanation of how it can prevent outbreaks in schools. This looks like an admittance of what I've suspected which is the huge outlay in purchasing and distributing these lateral flow tests to schools is virtually akin to flushing money down the drain because there is zero monitoring of what's happening to them. Many are likely binned unused as it's becoming apparent fewer and fewer parents and pupils are bothering with it. It's also more than possible that "inconvenient" results are ignored and not reported. It's actually a pretty signicant invasion of personal life by the government yet there has been little effort on their part to explain why it's necessary and to generate buy-in among those expected to do it. Not to mention the above claim that taking these tests can “break chains of transmission” doesn't appear to be supported by any actual evidence from real world usage (I'm not saying the tests don't work, I'm saying there's no evidence they are effective when being used as they are currently, administered by amateurs and relying on accurate reporting by individuals who may or may not give a toss about the wider initiative).

gilsey · Post by **gilsey** » Fri 18 Jun, 2021 12:16 pm

These are the tests that the US FDA have told us to throw in the trash?

The logical conclusion is that the govt have spent part of that £37bn on them so we'll use them regardless.

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Fri 18 Jun, 2021 12:18 pm

gilsey wrote: ↑Fri 18 Jun, 2021 12:05 pm
Willow904 wrote: ↑Fri 18 Jun, 2021 11:37 am From the G, from Ed Davey's speech
Is this a sign that the Tories can't align the demands of both socially conservative and socially liberal voters any more than Labour can?
You would think so. Interesting times.

At the very least, it gives the Tories something to think about.

RogerOThornhill · Post by **RogerOThornhill** » Fri 18 Jun, 2021 12:58 pm

The state of this...yeah the reason nobody's even noticed is because it isn't happening. What a pillock.

gilsey · Post by **gilsey** » Fri 18 Jun, 2021 1:50 pm

AnatolyKasparov wrote: ↑Fri 18 Jun, 2021 12:18 pm
gilsey wrote: ↑Fri 18 Jun, 2021 12:05 pm
Willow904 wrote: ↑Fri 18 Jun, 2021 11:37 am From the G, from Ed Davey's speech
Is this a sign that the Tories can't align the demands of both socially conservative and socially liberal voters any more than Labour can?
You would think so. Interesting times.
At the very least, it gives the Tories something to think about.

Gives Labour something to think about as well.

As many have already been saying, if tories have nailed their colours to the socially conservative mast, wouldn't Labour be better doing the opposite.

Opposition, the clue's in the name.

Sky'sGoneOut · Post by **Sky'sGoneOut** » Fri 18 Jun, 2021 1:52 pm

The local election results in the South East made it pretty clear something was afoot in the Shires but it was drowned out by the Tory triumphilism over Hartlepool. Being profoundly clueless about the politics of the area I'm not going to offer an opinion on why it's happening, but I will say it should have come as no surprise to anyone that Boris Johnson has a soft underbelly.

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Fri 18 Jun, 2021 3:56 pm

Amersham is still trying to recover from its previous brush with fame.

"The town has been used in a number of films, including:

Murder at the Gallop (1963)" (Wikipedia)

tinybgoat · Post by **tinybgoat** » Fri 18 Jun, 2021 4:17 pm

Also Four Weddings and a Funeral.
Dominic Raab went to school there
And (I think) Oliver Cromwell's wife was from Chesham.

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Fri 18 Jun, 2021 4:33 pm

Was that the school he was meant to be attending, or did he get lost and wander in off the street?

tinybgoat · Post by **tinybgoat** » Fri 18 Jun, 2021 4:57 pm

Hopefully he'll have been ferried in from Gerrard's Cross by coach, I'd hate to think of him being loose on the streets.

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Fri 18 Jun, 2021 5:00 pm

Sky'sGoneOut wrote: ↑Fri 18 Jun, 2021 1:52 pm The local election results in the South East made it pretty clear something was afoot in the Shires but it was drowned out by the Tory triumphilism over Hartlepool. Being profoundly clueless about the politics of the area I'm not going to offer an opinion on why it's happening, but I will say it should have come as no surprise to anyone that Boris Johnson has a soft underbelly.

Mayoral results as well, but Starmer then had his post-Hartlepool meltdown - which ensured even more that nobody would notice.

Sky'sGoneOut · Post by **Sky'sGoneOut** » Fri 18 Jun, 2021 5:06 pm

PorFavor wrote: ↑Fri 18 Jun, 2021 3:56 pm Amersham is still trying to recover from its previous brush with fame.

"The town has been used in a number of films, including:

Murder at the Gallop (1963)" (Wikipedia)

Best remembered (at least by me) for the fleeting appearance of this 'cat'.

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Fri 18 Jun, 2021 5:27 pm

The Amersham Variant.

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Fri 18 Jun, 2021 5:37 pm

Looking distinctly possible there might be another Yorkshire byelection before too long.

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Fri 18 Jun, 2021 5:45 pm

Would you care to expand (not physically)?

tinyclanger2 · Post by **tinyclanger2** » Fri 18 Jun, 2021 5:45 pm

That cat is excellent.

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Fri 18 Jun, 2021 6:28 pm

"British food and drink exports to EU fall by £2bn in first quarter of 2021

Industry body says analysis of HMRC data shows structural rather than teething problems with Brexit" (Guardian)

Yes. It surprised me, too.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... er-of-2021

Post by **refitman** » Fri 18 Jun, 2021 7:09 pm

Remember when Rayner seemed like a person with integrity?

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Fri 18 Jun, 2021 7:23 pm

PorFavor wrote: ↑Fri 18 Jun, 2021 5:45 pm Would you care to expand (not physically)?

Wakefield.

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Fri 18 Jun, 2021 8:46 pm

Thank you.

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Fri 18 Jun, 2021 9:04 pm

Quite lively in the football so far, no goals though.

Post by **refitman** » Fri 18 Jun, 2021 9:52 pm

AnatolyKasparov wrote: ↑Fri 18 Jun, 2021 7:23 pm
PorFavor wrote: ↑Fri 18 Jun, 2021 5:45 pm Would you care to expand (not physically)?
Wakefield.

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/202 ... ar-old-boy

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Fri 18 Jun, 2021 11:09 pm

And thank you for the link.

Sky'sGoneOut · Post by **Sky'sGoneOut** » Sat 19 Jun, 2021 12:19 am

O Flower of Scotland
When will we see your like again?
That fought and died for
Your wee bit Hill and Glen
And stood against him
Proud Edward's Army
And sent him homeward tae think again.

Ha ha, get it up ye ya English bastar....

Sorry. I may be a bit drunk and I also had to deal with an idiot who's dog was attacking a hedgehog in the park on the way home.

Sky'sGoneOut · Post by **Sky'sGoneOut** » Sat 19 Jun, 2021 1:13 am

Yeah it was only a draw but the English media assumed it was going to be a walkover whith Ingerlund's superstars trouncing the plucky Scot's with consumate ease.

Which didn't happen. At all.

Which once again pokes a finger in the eye of the idea that England is good at anything. Because let's not beat around the bush here, Scotland are shit. We've made teams like Israel and Austria look good, we can't defend or score goals most of the time, and yet tonight, England made us look like a decent football team.

So fly all your Union Jack flags and pretend to the world that your fat emperor is wearing clothes while we ready ourselves to be free of the delusional and toxic dead weight that England has become.

Sky'sGoneOut · Post by **Sky'sGoneOut** » Sat 19 Jun, 2021 1:55 am

Heh, I may have gone a little over the top.

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Sat 19 Jun, 2021 1:56 am

After your earlier comment about Boris Johnson's "soft underbelly", for my own well-being I have to imagine that the Emperor's wearing clothes. The alternative is too revolting to contemplate.

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Sat 19 Jun, 2021 2:07 am

Sky'sGoneOut · Post by **Sky'sGoneOut** » Sat 19 Jun, 2021 2:27 am