Saturday 2nd, Sunday 3rd & Monday 4th May 2015

AngryAsWell · Post by **AngryAsWell** » Sat 02 May, 2015 5:54 pm

Royal Baby names: latest odds.

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Post by **letsskiptotheleft** » Sat 02 May, 2015 5:54 pm

But before I go, I was working with someone yesterday, new to the job, father of three, was working with autistic teenagers in Cardiff, he left when a new private firm took over and dropped the wages to the minimum wage.

He googled the new owners, an accountant and property developer. Now they could be genuine, but somehow I doubt it. Social care packages would be the first thing I would bring back "in house" especially when some care packages are worth 250,000+.

Post by **letsskiptotheleft** » Sat 02 May, 2015 5:55 pm

to you too yahayah, and everyone else who needs one.

rebeccariots2 · Post by **rebeccariots2** » Sat 02 May, 2015 6:06 pm

AngryAsWell wrote:Royal Baby names: latest odds.

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Perhaps there needs to be the name of a place / country on that list - just to satisfy the anti Katie Hopkins urge. Should be properly UK, British mind.

frightful_oik · Post by **frightful_oik** » Sat 02 May, 2015 6:08 pm

I'd call her Millie. Thoroughly modern name after all. But I agree with those odds; Vote Conservative is a shoe-in.

frightful_oik · Post by **frightful_oik** » Sat 02 May, 2015 6:10 pm

letsskiptotheleft wrote: to you too yahayah, and everyone else who needs one.

Well I do after what those overpaid *******s I support did today!

Reading!? I mean bloody Reading!

No offence ohso

RogerOThornhill · Post by **RogerOThornhill** » Sat 02 May, 2015 6:14 pm

frightful_oik wrote:
letsskiptotheleft wrote: to you too yahayah, and everyone else who needs one.
Well I do after what those overpaid *******s I support did today!
Reading!? I mean bloody Reading!

No offence ohso

Gutted for you - play off place there for the taking and...it's gone. Not sure it's as bad as us (L.Orient) - lost last year's play-off final and look like we're down tomorrow.

AngryAsWell · Post by **AngryAsWell** » Sat 02 May, 2015 6:16 pm

#VoteCameronOut already at No. 3 trending

utopiandreams · Post by **utopiandreams** » Sat 02 May, 2015 6:24 pm

Blimey I've just switched on the telly and scrolled through the channel list and see there was a two hours forty minute ITV News Special bulletin! Rhetorical question: what's that all about?

RogerOThornhill · Post by **RogerOThornhill** » Sat 02 May, 2015 6:31 pm

utopiandreams wrote:Blimey I've just switched on the telly and scrolled through the channel list and see there was a two hours forty minute ITV News Special bulletin! Rhetorical question: what's that all about?

A look back at the life story so far of The Baby I expect.

Tubby Isaacs · Post by **Tubby Isaacs** » Sat 02 May, 2015 6:43 pm

letsskiptotheleft wrote:Funny how no one mentions Sheffield when it comes to the SNP and celebrating too early.

Very good point.

I will love it we don't lost too badly to them, love it.

Tubby Isaacs · Post by **Tubby Isaacs** » Sat 02 May, 2015 6:43 pm

RogerOThornhill wrote:
frightful_oik wrote:
letsskiptotheleft wrote: to you too yahayah, and everyone else who needs one.
Well I do after what those overpaid *******s I support did today!
Reading!? I mean bloody Reading!

No offence ohso

Gutted for you - play off place there for the taking and...it's gone. Not sure it's as bad as us (L.Orient) - lost last year's play-off final and look like we're down tomorrow.

You want to see Cheltenham.

frightful_oik · Post by **frightful_oik** » Sat 02 May, 2015 6:45 pm

RogerOThornhill wrote:
frightful_oik wrote:
letsskiptotheleft wrote: to you too yahayah, and everyone else who needs one.
Well I do after what those overpaid *******s I support did today!
Reading!? I mean bloody Reading!

No offence ohso
Gutted for you - play off place there for the taking and...it's gone. Not sure it's as bad as us (L.Orient) - lost last year's play-off final and look like we're down tomorrow.

Good luck tomorrow Roger. We just had too many injuries. And, as you know, it's never the useless ones that get injured is it.

Tubby Isaacs · Post by **Tubby Isaacs** » Sat 02 May, 2015 6:47 pm

letsskiptotheleft wrote: to you too yahayah, and everyone else who needs one.

AngryAsWell · Post by **AngryAsWell** » Sat 02 May, 2015 6:54 pm

#VoteCameronOut Now at No 1 having knocked Prince George off the top!

TheGrimSqueaker · Post by **TheGrimSqueaker** » Sat 02 May, 2015 6:55 pm

AngryAsWell wrote:#VoteCameronOut already at No. 3 trending

rebeccariots2 · Post by **rebeccariots2** » Sat 02 May, 2015 6:55 pm

Just been reading UK Polling Report. A poster there suggests that a further term of Conservative government with the of support any other sell out servatives they can muster will mean the introduction of regional pay and benefits ... which they couldn't do in this term. I think they're right. And I'm betting some of the 12 billion savings in 'welfare' is predicated on that.

TheGrimSqueaker · Post by **TheGrimSqueaker** » Sat 02 May, 2015 6:55 pm

AngryAsWell wrote:#VoteCameronOut Now at No 1 having knocked Prince George off the top!

Snap!

ohsocynical · Post by **ohsocynical** » Sat 02 May, 2015 7:18 pm

Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB 2 mins2 minutes ago

Coming up at 7.30pm - although some have broken the embargo already, is the ComRes phone poll for the IoS/S Mirror

TheGrimSqueaker · Post by **TheGrimSqueaker** » Sat 02 May, 2015 7:30 pm

RobertSnozers wrote:I know we're not supposed to talk about football here, so I won't. But I shall offer a football-based analogy to the forthcoming general election where a team, let's call it Ipswich Town, standing here for Labour, aren't quite able to get the most goals, or seats in the final match, or campaign, but because of the wider mathematics of the Championship, or parliament, are able to move forward to the play-offs, or post-election talks. So I think that analogy should give hope to all 'Ipswich Town' fans even if they still have to overcome Norwich City, or the Tory ~~scum~~ Party

Not sure Ed Balls would thank you for equating Norwich with the Tories.

ohsocynical · Post by **ohsocynical** » Sat 02 May, 2015 7:34 pm

John McTernan retweeted
Lord Ashcroft ‏@LordAshcroft 46 secs46 seconds ago

ComRes poll CON 33% LAB 33% UKIP 13% LDEM 8% GRNS 7%

rebeccariots2 · Post by **rebeccariots2** » Sat 02 May, 2015 7:36 pm

Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB · 1m 1 minute ago
If it continues this close then LAB looks set to win most seats

Tubby Isaacs · Post by **Tubby Isaacs** » Sat 02 May, 2015 7:40 pm

Keiran Pedley ‏@keiranpedley 4m4 minutes ago
ComRes have Labour and Conservative neck and neck again. Phone and online starting to converge? Bad news for Cameron #GE2015

rebeccariots2 · Post by **rebeccariots2** » Sat 02 May, 2015 7:47 pm

For those of you not feeling very optimistic or grounded today - I advise not following any links to the Labour Uncut article that people are beginning to tweet about. It claims that Milibrand rushed off to do the interview with Russell Brand because initial postal vote tallies suggested Labour weren't doing well and his team went into a panic.

Lots of people are rubbishing Labour Uncut as an unreliable / biased source. Best not to let this tangential (trying to be polite but might have actually made up a word there) view into the mix IMO.

rebeccariots2 · Post by **rebeccariots2** » Sat 02 May, 2015 7:51 pm

Jon Trickett ‏@jon_trickett 7m7 minutes ago
Two polls so far. Neck and neck nationally. But I am quite certain we are ahead in our key seats. All out for a Labour victory. #ToriesOut

rebeccariots2 · Post by **rebeccariots2** » Sat 02 May, 2015 7:58 pm

Isabel Oakeshott retweeted
Lord Ashcroft ‏@LordAshcroft 12m12 minutes ago
"Call me Dave"-the unauthorised biography of David Cameron by myself and @IsabelOakeshott can be pre-ordered here https://www.bitebackpublishing.com/books/call-me-dave" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; … …

What a title.

RogerOThornhill · Post by **RogerOThornhill** » Sat 02 May, 2015 7:59 pm

rebeccariots2 wrote:
Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB · 1m 1 minute ago
If it continues this close then LAB looks set to win most seats

Expect:

1. Some more unfunded giveaways
2. Some really virulently nasty stories that the tabloids have been keeping up their sleeves just in case. Bound to be a "Labour bigwigs knew about Janner years ago" and the perennial "Harman and the truth about PIE" (again).

They're not going to give No 10 up easily...

Spacedone · Post by **Spacedone** » Sat 02 May, 2015 7:59 pm

rebeccariots2 wrote:For those of you not feeling very optimistic or grounded today - I advise not following any links to the Labour Uncut article that people are beginning to tweet about. It claims that Milibrand rushed off to do the interview with Russell Brand because initial postal vote tallies suggested Labour weren't doing well and his team went into a panic.

Lots of people are rubbishing Labour Uncut as an unreliable / biased source. Best not to let this tangential (trying to be polite but might have actually made up a word there) view into the mix IMO.

Don't postal votes get counted at the same time as every other vote?

Tubby Isaacs · Post by **Tubby Isaacs** » Sat 02 May, 2015 8:03 pm

Labour Uncut proving they want Labour to lose.

"Revealing" something bad for Labour in the last week.

Kick them out.

TechnicalEphemera · Post by **TechnicalEphemera** » Sat 02 May, 2015 8:04 pm

Spacedone wrote:
rebeccariots2 wrote:For those of you not feeling very optimistic or grounded today - I advise not following any links to the Labour Uncut article that people are beginning to tweet about. It claims that Milibrand rushed off to do the interview with Russell Brand because initial postal vote tallies suggested Labour weren't doing well and his team went into a panic.

Lots of people are rubbishing Labour Uncut as an unreliable / biased source. Best not to let this tangential (trying to be polite but might have actually made up a word there) view into the mix IMO.
Don't postal votes get counted at the same time as every other vote?

I don't know, but given the mechanisms of the count I would suggest so.

I would also ask when have we ever had a by-election where people knew ahead of the count the running total of postal votes?

And finally as a panic measure doing an interview with Brand doesn't cut it.

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Sat 02 May, 2015 8:05 pm

Postal vote opening sessions
When are postal votes opened and how do you
know when an opening session is taking place?

It is likely that several opening sessions will take place before
polling day, as well as on polling day itself.

The Constituency Returning Officer must give election agents at
least 48 hours’ notice of when and where the sessions will take
place. They will also tell them how many postal voting agents will
be allowed to attend each session.

There will be a final opening session after the polls have closed to open any postal votes delivered to polling stations.
This session may be held at the count venue or in another location.

Duty to maintain secrecy

Anyone attending an opening session must not attempt to look
at identifying marks or numbers on ballot papers, disclose how
any particular ballot paper has been marked or pass on any
such information gained from the session. Anyone found guilty of
breaching these requirements can face a fine of up to £5,000, or
may be imprisoned for up to six months.

http://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/_ ... voting.pdf" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Sat 02 May, 2015 8:05 pm

I don't know if it's any sort of indicator but I've been 'phone canvassing this evening and, instead of being fairly pleasant as they have been up to date, the Conservatives I've contacted (bar one - but even he was very vehement) have been very shirty.

TechnicalEphemera · Post by **TechnicalEphemera** » Sat 02 May, 2015 8:08 pm

citizenJA wrote:Postal vote opening sessions
When are postal votes opened and how do you
know when an opening session is taking place?

It is likely that several opening sessions will take place before
polling day, as well as on polling day itself.

The Constituency Returning Officer must give election agents at
least 48 hours’ notice of when and where the sessions will take
place. They will also tell them how many postal voting agents will
be allowed to attend each session.

There will be a final opening session after the polls have closed to open any postal votes delivered to polling stations.
This session may be held at the count venue or in another location.

Duty to maintain secrecy

Anyone attending an opening session must not attempt to look
at identifying marks or numbers on ballot papers, disclose how
any particular ballot paper has been marked or pass on any
such information gained from the session. Anyone found guilty of
breaching these requirements can face a fine of up to £5,000, or
may be imprisoned for up to six months.

http://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/_ ... voting.pdf" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Ah well there you go. But that Brand interview was pretty early in the process.

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Sat 02 May, 2015 8:10 pm

https://www.facebook.com/labourparty/vi ... =2&theater

Ed Miliband and Ronnie O'Sullivan video.

Eric_WLothian · Post by **Eric_WLothian** » Sat 02 May, 2015 8:12 pm

Spacedone wrote:
rebeccariots2 wrote:For those of you not feeling very optimistic or grounded today - I advise not following any links to the Labour Uncut article that people are beginning to tweet about. It claims that Milibrand rushed off to do the interview with Russell Brand because initial postal vote tallies suggested Labour weren't doing well and his team went into a panic.

Lots of people are rubbishing Labour Uncut as an unreliable / biased source. Best not to let this tangential (trying to be polite but might have actually made up a word there) view into the mix IMO.
Don't postal votes get counted at the same time as every other vote?

There were similar allegations during the referendum - but it was Ruth Davidson in the limelight:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-s ... s-29489288

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Sat 02 May, 2015 8:13 pm

Goodnight, everyone.

Tubby Isaacs · Post by **Tubby Isaacs** » Sat 02 May, 2015 8:14 pm

TechnicalEphemera wrote:
Spacedone wrote:
rebeccariots2 wrote:For those of you not feeling very optimistic or grounded today - I advise not following any links to the Labour Uncut article that people are beginning to tweet about. It claims that Milibrand rushed off to do the interview with Russell Brand because initial postal vote tallies suggested Labour weren't doing well and his team went into a panic.

Lots of people are rubbishing Labour Uncut as an unreliable / biased source. Best not to let this tangential (trying to be polite but might have actually made up a word there) view into the mix IMO.
Don't postal votes get counted at the same time as every other vote?
I don't know, but given the mechanisms of the count I would suggest so.

I would also ask when have we ever had a by-election where people knew ahead of the count the running total of postal votes?

And finally as a panic measure doing an interview with Brand doesn't cut it.

They're making it up.

ohsocynical · Post by **ohsocynical** » Sat 02 May, 2015 8:15 pm

ohsocynical wrote:John McTernan retweeted
Lord Ashcroft ‏@LordAshcroft 46 secs46 seconds ago

ComRes poll CON 33% LAB 33% UKIP 13% LDEM 8% GRNS 7%

Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB 44 mins44 minutes ago
Tonight's ComRes phone poll for IoS/S Mirror has with comparisons on last Tuesday poll

Con 33% -2
Lab 33% -2
LD 8% +1
UKIP 13% +2
GN 7% +1

Post by **refitman** » Sat 02 May, 2015 8:15 pm

PorFavor wrote:Goodnight, everyone.

Night PF.

Not staying up to watch the fight?

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Sat 02 May, 2015 8:16 pm

I think everything we know about Ed Miliband & the Labour party campaign so far rule out an act of panic. I was unsurprised Miliband did the Brand interview. I wasn't surprised Ed did an excellent job of the interview. Panic? I'm unhappy if that was suggested. I'm panicking but I'm not as organised or naturally composed. I don't have the expertise of Ed Miliband & the rest of the Labour party leadership. I'm practising. Some day soon, I hope not to panic so easily.

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Sat 02 May, 2015 8:17 pm

PorFavor wrote:Goodnight, everyone.

Goodnight, PF.

TechnicalEphemera · Post by **TechnicalEphemera** » Sat 02 May, 2015 8:17 pm

Eric_WLothian wrote:
Spacedone wrote:
rebeccariots2 wrote:For those of you not feeling very optimistic or grounded today - I advise not following any links to the Labour Uncut article that people are beginning to tweet about. It claims that Milibrand rushed off to do the interview with Russell Brand because initial postal vote tallies suggested Labour weren't doing well and his team went into a panic.

Lots of people are rubbishing Labour Uncut as an unreliable / biased source. Best not to let this tangential (trying to be polite but might have actually made up a word there) view into the mix IMO.
Don't postal votes get counted at the same time as every other vote?
There were similar allegations during the referendum - but it was Ruth Davidson in the limelight:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-s ... s-29489288

Sampling is pretty dubious, in a tight election probably very subject to confirmation bias.

I guess we will find out soon enough, but to me it seems more like a rumour given how early in the process it would have been.

rebeccariots2 · Post by **rebeccariots2** » Sat 02 May, 2015 8:17 pm

Spacedone wrote:
rebeccariots2 wrote:For those of you not feeling very optimistic or grounded today - I advise not following any links to the Labour Uncut article that people are beginning to tweet about. It claims that Milibrand rushed off to do the interview with Russell Brand because initial postal vote tallies suggested Labour weren't doing well and his team went into a panic.

Lots of people are rubbishing Labour Uncut as an unreliable / biased source. Best not to let this tangential (trying to be polite but might have actually made up a word there) view into the mix IMO.
Don't postal votes get counted at the same time as every other vote?

They get 'verified' in batches in advance. Verification is checking they are valid numbers / names for the constituency register ... and party reps are present for it. But they are not supposed to allocate them towards parties. However, it is apparently fairly easy to keep a kind of tally if you are watching the process.

I know some of this because we were discussing the various processes today after our stint on the doorsteps.

utopiandreams · Post by **utopiandreams** » Sat 02 May, 2015 8:18 pm

citizenJA wrote:... Tories are pilfering freebooters. Labour have planned ahead...

Personally I feel that both Labour and Tories are freebooters, гражданка, although Miliband does seem a little different, albeit he won't decry the Trident replacement. It got me thinking about human rights and nuclear weapons and led me to 'Weapons of Mass Destruction and Human Rights' from The International and Security Network: http://www.isn.ethz.ch/Digital-Library/ ... n&id=48001.

Relevant chapter (pdf): http://mercury.ethz.ch/serviceengine/Fi ... rights.pdf

I've just skimmed the first half and it does look interesting, but shall return to it when I've finished browsing the rest of the posts here.

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Sat 02 May, 2015 8:20 pm

rebeccariots2 wrote:
Spacedone wrote:
rebeccariots2 wrote:For those of you not feeling very optimistic or grounded today - I advise not following any links to the Labour Uncut article that people are beginning to tweet about. It claims that Milibrand rushed off to do the interview with Russell Brand because initial postal vote tallies suggested Labour weren't doing well and his team went into a panic.

Lots of people are rubbishing Labour Uncut as an unreliable / biased source. Best not to let this tangential (trying to be polite but might have actually made up a word there) view into the mix IMO.
Don't postal votes get counted at the same time as every other vote?
They get 'verified' in batches in advance. Verification is checking they are valid numbers / names for the constituency register ... and party reps are present for it. But they are not supposed to allocate them towards parties. However, it is apparently fairly easy to keep a kind of tally if you are watching the process.

I know some of this because we were discussing the various processes today after our stint on the doorsteps.

But it's against the rules to discuss what has been tallied, isn't it?

ohsocynical · Post by **ohsocynical** » Sat 02 May, 2015 8:21 pm

PorFavor wrote:Goodnight, everyone.

Night PF

rebeccariots2 · Post by **rebeccariots2** » Sat 02 May, 2015 8:23 pm

citizenJA wrote:
rebeccariots2 wrote:
Spacedone wrote: Don't postal votes get counted at the same time as every other vote?
They get 'verified' in batches in advance. Verification is checking they are valid numbers / names for the constituency register ... and party reps are present for it. But they are not supposed to allocate them towards parties. However, it is apparently fairly easy to keep a kind of tally if you are watching the process.

I know some of this because we were discussing the various processes today after our stint on the doorsteps.
But it's against the rules to discuss what has been tallied, isn't it?

Yes, I believe so. But I also seem to remember some pretty hefty rumours about postal votes being leaked out before the last election here. I'll have to check with others locally to see if my memory is right or not.

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Sat 02 May, 2015 8:25 pm

Dave: The Unauthorised Biography

What a deplorable piece of work that would have to be to make it through possible litigation.

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Sat 02 May, 2015 8:26 pm

rebeccariots2 wrote:
citizenJA wrote:
rebeccariots2 wrote: They get 'verified' in batches in advance. Verification is checking they are valid numbers / names for the constituency register ... and party reps are present for it. But they are not supposed to allocate them towards parties. However, it is apparently fairly easy to keep a kind of tally if you are watching the process.

I know some of this because we were discussing the various processes today after our stint on the doorsteps.
But it's against the rules to discuss what has been tallied, isn't it?
Yes, I believe so. But I also seem to remember some pretty hefty rumours about postal votes being leaked out before the last election here. I'll have to check with others locally to see if my memory is right or not.

I'm sure everything was done lawfully. I'm not just saying that. TE is correct.

MsChin · Post by **MsChin** » Sat 02 May, 2015 8:31 pm

Good evening.

Postal votes are kept face down during verification, as are those from the ballot boxes. Verification just confirms that none of the ballots have gone astray. There's no way anyone can guess how many have gone to which party at that stage. Next step is to place face up, check ballots are legitimate and chuck into piles/open boxes for each party or spoiled votes. That can help with estimating the outcome but is by no means certain. Then you bundle into 100s or whatever to aid the count, which has to tally to the verified total. Elections processes are probably the most transparent thing any government ever gave us.