Saturday 2nd, Sunday 3rd & Monday 4th May 2015

rearofthestore · Post by **rearofthestore** » Sun 03 May, 2015 1:16 pm

I note from poster (The Bishop) on UK Polling Report site that there is a new separate YouGov poll for the Sun on Sunday (no connection with Sunday Times poll) that gives Labour a 1% lead
Lab 35, Con 34, Ukip 12, LD 9, Green 5, SNP/PCy 4

yahyah · Post by **yahyah** » Sun 03 May, 2015 1:21 pm

Also from one of today's YouGovs

No chance of changing mind – GB 79% : Sco 85%
Might change mind – GB 7% : Sco 9%
Don’t know – GB 11% : Sco 3%
Lowest level of decision made in London (73%) : Mid/Wales (75%)

ohsocynical · Post by **ohsocynical** » Sun 03 May, 2015 1:23 pm

Boris Johnson could face High Court challenge by campaigners if he becomes MP

h[url]ttp://www.getwestlondon.co.uk/news/west-londo ... gh-9151477[/url]

It won't happen, but hopefully might throw him out of whack for a bit...

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Sun 03 May, 2015 1:24 pm

I have to admit I find the "stone" thing a bit odd - might make slightly more sense if it ends up at Labour HQ rather than Downing St, as the Observer has suggested?

yahyah · Post by **yahyah** » Sun 03 May, 2015 1:40 pm

Having seen what the pledge stone is...it will be used for 'Red Ed's tombstone' type photoshopping in the next few days.

Still, the media will obsess about it, with Tory help.

ohsocynical · Post by **ohsocynical** » Sun 03 May, 2015 1:41 pm

AnatolyKasparov wrote:I have to admit I find the "stone" thing a bit odd - might make slightly more sense if it ends up at Labour HQ rather than Downing St, as the Observer has suggested?

I dunno. Any Conservative MP after Ed would be reminded of what Ed did and that he stuck to his word, each time they looked out of the window, or went out for a breath of fresh air. Think how they'd hate that.

ohsocynical · Post by **ohsocynical** » Sun 03 May, 2015 1:43 pm

yahyah wrote:Having seen what the pledge stone is...it will be used for 'Red Ed's tombstone' type photoshopping in the next few days.

Still, the media will obsess about it, with Tory help.

I daresay someone will photoshop a blank stone for the Conservatives. Except date of demise of course.

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Sun 03 May, 2015 1:47 pm

Ross Hawkins @rosschawkins

Citizens UK confirm that Miliband & Clegg will address their assembly tomorrow, Cameron won't - Javid goes instead
1:16 PM - 3 May 2015

18 18 Retweets
2 (Guardian Election blog, 13.45)

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Sun 03 May, 2015 1:48 pm

rearofthestore wrote:I note from poster (The Bishop) on UK Polling Report site that there is a new separate YouGov poll for the Sun on Sunday (no connection with Sunday Times poll) that gives Labour a 1% lead
Lab 35, Con 34, Ukip 12, LD 9, Green 5, SNP/PCy 4

Who may or may not be connected with anybody on here <ahem>

This poll was actually taken slightly earlier than the ST YouGov, but confirms the overall picture - still no crossover.

(even though a certain DPJ Hodges loudly proclaimed such on Thursday morning after MORI came out - he thinks the Tories will win by 6-7% btw)

RogerOThornhill · Post by **RogerOThornhill** » Sun 03 May, 2015 1:50 pm

The stone gets the focus off the SNP for a while.

Tories questioning Miliband's judgement?

Probably not a good idea since there are umpteen example of Cameron's terrible judgement that can be quoted - Coulson, Team Nigella, LOL's with R.Brooks...the list goes on and on.

TheGrimSqueaker · Post by **TheGrimSqueaker** » Sun 03 May, 2015 1:52 pm

ohsocynical wrote:
AnatolyKasparov wrote:I have to admit I find the "stone" thing a bit odd - might make slightly more sense if it ends up at Labour HQ rather than Downing St, as the Observer has suggested?
I dunno. Any Conservative MP after Ed would be reminded of what Ed did and that he stuck to his word, each time they looked out of the window, or went out for a breath of fresh air. Think how they'd hate that.

Absolutely. And it is a clear statement of intent, that he intends to stand by his pledges and, after all, an eight foot high stone is harder to expunge from existence than a website.

Ed Miliband ‏@Ed_Miliband · 1m1 minute ago
Five years ago Nick Clegg promised to scrap tuition fees but he then trebled them. I’ve said I will cut tuition fees. I won’t break my word.

Ed Miliband ‏@Ed_Miliband · 4m4 minutes ago
I will cut tuition fees. If I don’t do it, I won’t stand for PM in five years. There should be consequences when people’s trust is let down.

utopiandreams · Post by **utopiandreams** » Sun 03 May, 2015 1:55 pm

AnatolyKasparov wrote:I have to admit I find the "stone" thing a bit odd - might make slightly more sense if it ends up at Labour HQ rather than Downing St, as the Observer has suggested?

I agree it's odd, Anatoly. Perhaps Ed has it in mind as a parting gift for Dave to erect in his own back garden, a centre-piece for his Chipping Norton circle to bang their heads against.

Edit: slightly reworded as centre-piece for his circle

Willow904 · Post by **Willow904** » Sun 03 May, 2015 1:56 pm

I just dropped into the Guardian's election blog to find everyone talking about "Ed's stone". Was very confused there for a while, until I found the original story. As I said in my comment in the G, that's one big pledge card! I think the Tories are jealous. How long before a Tory politics student from Exeter makes Cameron an even bigger one?

ohsocynical · Post by **ohsocynical** » Sun 03 May, 2015 2:04 pm

RogerOThornhill wrote:The stone gets the focus off the SNP for a while.

Tories questioning Miliband's judgement?

Probably not a good idea since there are umpteen example of Cameron's terrible judgement that can be quoted - Coulson, Team Nigella, LOL's with R.Brooks...the list goes on and on.

Tories can't afford the limelight on their broken promises, but have they even thought of that? I can't seem to find any signs that their attempts at blackening Ed and Labour are properly thought through.

SpinningHugo · Post by **SpinningHugo** » Sun 03 May, 2015 2:07 pm

It is not so much the stone as the pledges I object to. They are hopelessly open textured (compare the 97 pledge list). They are just we pledge 'more loveliness'.

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Sun 03 May, 2015 2:08 pm

Speaking after a Liberal Democrat rally in Bermondsey, where justice minister Simon Hughes is campaigning to remain MP, Nick Clegg was asked why a referendum on the EU was not one of the party’s six red lines:

How the parties interact with each other and whether the red lines are compatible or not with each other is entirely dependent on the mandate that is given to each political party in the ballot box on Thursday. (Guardian Election Blog, 13.56)

I see. Hold on a minute - no, I don't.

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Sun 03 May, 2015 2:15 pm

SpinningHugo wrote:It is not so much the stone as the pledges I object to. They are hopelessly open textured (compare the 97 pledge list). They are just we pledge 'more loveliness'.

I thought for a moment there that you were passing an aesthetic judgement on the carving.

RogerOThornhill · Post by **RogerOThornhill** » Sun 03 May, 2015 2:18 pm

Allow me a moment of personal grief - we've just been relegated. Couldn't win against a 10-man team with 9 changes and 2 debutants.

SpinningHugo · Post by **SpinningHugo** » Sun 03 May, 2015 2:18 pm

Mind you, it does look a bit like a tombstone. And that isn't a good look.

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Sun 03 May, 2015 2:22 pm

SpinningHugo wrote:Mind you, it does look a bit like a tombstone. And that isn't a good look.

As I said in another place (again) - opening scene of 2001 A Space Odyssey

ephemerid · Post by **ephemerid** » Sun 03 May, 2015 2:23 pm

Andrew Neil was very worried about the Pledge Stone on the Sunday Politics.

He asked Chris Leslie if he had planning permission for it.

TheGrimSqueaker · Post by **TheGrimSqueaker** » Sun 03 May, 2015 2:25 pm

ohsocynical wrote:
RogerOThornhill wrote:The stone gets the focus off the SNP for a while.

Tories questioning Miliband's judgement?

Probably not a good idea since there are umpteen example of Cameron's terrible judgement that can be quoted - Coulson, Team Nigella, LOL's with R.Brooks...the list goes on and on.
Tories can't afford the limelight on their broken promises, but have they even thought of that? I can't seem to find any signs that their attempts at blackening Ed and Labour are properly thought through.

Interesting tweet from Bonnie Greer earlier this morning:

At last...@TheSunNewspaper's political editor admits that rightwing press got #Miliband thing wrong..and they messed up.
#Torypress
#bbcsp

So does that mean that they won't be doing more of the same this week? And did Newton Dunn basically just admit that it was a coordinated campaign?

TheGrimSqueaker · Post by **TheGrimSqueaker** » Sun 03 May, 2015 2:26 pm

SpinningHugo wrote:It is not so much the stone as the pledges I object to. They are hopelessly open textured (compare the 97 pledge list). They are just we pledge 'more loveliness'.

After five years of the Coalition bastards wouldn't a bit of loveliness be a welcome change?

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Sun 03 May, 2015 2:27 pm

Tbf to the Observer, a very well written editorial endorsing Labour today - arguably better than the Graun's.

Slightly odd perhaps that they haven't allowed comments on it.......

Willow904 · Post by **Willow904** » Sun 03 May, 2015 2:30 pm

ephemerid wrote:Andrew Neil was very worried about the Pledge Stone on the Sunday Politics.

He asked Chris Leslie if he had planning permission for it.

It's just jealousy, the Tories want a giant pledge card too, bless.

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Sun 03 May, 2015 2:34 pm

TheGrimSqueaker wrote:
ohsocynical wrote:
AnatolyKasparov wrote:I have to admit I find the "stone" thing a bit odd - might make slightly more sense if it ends up at Labour HQ rather than Downing St, as the Observer has suggested?
I dunno. Any Conservative MP after Ed would be reminded of what Ed did and that he stuck to his word, each time they looked out of the window, or went out for a breath of fresh air. Think how they'd hate that.
Absolutely. And it is a clear statement of intent, that he intends to stand by his pledges and, after all, an eight foot high stone is harder to expunge from existence than a website.

Ed Miliband ‏@Ed_Miliband · 1m1 minute ago
Five years ago Nick Clegg promised to scrap tuition fees but he then trebled them. I’ve said I will cut tuition fees. I won’t break my word.

Ed Miliband ‏@Ed_Miliband · 4m4 minutes ago
I will cut tuition fees. If I don’t do it, I won’t stand for PM in five years. There should be consequences when people’s trust is let down.

(my bold)
Well said.

TheGrimSqueaker · Post by **TheGrimSqueaker** » Sun 03 May, 2015 2:36 pm

Willow904 wrote:
ephemerid wrote:Andrew Neil was very worried about the Pledge Stone on the Sunday Politics.

He asked Chris Leslie if he had planning permission for it.
It's just jealousy, the Tories want a giant pledge card too, bless.

Where are they going to find a magic drawing board that big?

Post by **refitman** » Sun 03 May, 2015 2:37 pm

TheGrimSqueaker wrote:File this one under "Truth is stranger than fiction". Among the local council seats being contested on Thursday is the Wombwell Ward of Barnsley Metropolitan Council and the UKIP candidate for the seat will be a Mr Wayne Kerr!!

https://www.barnsley.gov.uk/media/36780 ... l_ward.pdf" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

That's where I live! Glad I've seen that in advance, otherwise I'd start laughing in the polling booth.

The only election leaflet I've had is from Labour, nothing from any other parties and no knocks on the door.

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Sun 03 May, 2015 2:37 pm

PorFavor wrote:
Speaking after a Liberal Democrat rally in Bermondsey, where justice minister Simon Hughes is campaigning to remain MP, Nick Clegg was asked why a referendum on the EU was not one of the party’s six red lines:

How the parties interact with each other and whether the red lines are compatible or not with each other is entirely dependent on the mandate that is given to each political party in the ballot box on Thursday. (Guardian Election Blog, 13.56)
I see. Hold on a minute - no, I don't.

Neither do I. I trust the man having his promises carved in stone.

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Sun 03 May, 2015 2:38 pm

Any chance of extending this thread into tomorrow given that Monday is a bank holiday? Just a thought

ohsocynical · Post by **ohsocynical** » Sun 03 May, 2015 2:42 pm

David Cameron ‏@David_Cameron 25 mins25 minutes ago

There's only one way to deliver the things that matter, and that's with a strong economy. So vote for it on Thursday:

" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; …

Deary me. Who thought up this Tweet for Cameron?

TechnicalEphemera · Post by **TechnicalEphemera** » Sun 03 May, 2015 2:43 pm

The thing with the stone is the media has to talk about Labours policies to mock it.

Finally shut the tossers up about the SNP and post election wrangling.

Talking of which, if Cameron can't secure a majority without SNP/Labour, the second the SNP state they will vote his government down he has to go by convention.

It has become clear that the PM cannot secure the majority of the house.

TheGrimSqueaker · Post by **TheGrimSqueaker** » Sun 03 May, 2015 2:45 pm

TechnicalEphemera wrote:The thing with the stone is the media has to talk about Labours policies to mock it.

Finally shut the tossers up about the SNP and post election wrangling.

Talking of which, if Cameron can't secure a majority without SNP/Labour, the second the SNP state they will vote his government down he has to go by convention.

It has become clear that the PM cannot secure the majority of the house.

A point was made in the Other Place that the person who has the ultimate say on whether something is constitutional or not, i.e. whether OGRFG can cling to power without the numbers, is the Speaker of the House. Which puts Hague's tawdry attempt to dispose of him before dissolution into an interesting new light.

SpinningHugo · Post by **SpinningHugo** » Sun 03 May, 2015 2:55 pm

What are we all doing on Thursday night then?

I'll be staying in quietly watching the results on TV. The Labour part post-election party I went to in 92 (in a marginal we managed to win) was so depressing that I have no attended one since.

For the avoidance of doubt, this won't be 92. EM will be PM.

tinyclanger2 · Post by **tinyclanger2** » Sun 03 May, 2015 2:56 pm

Miliband's got stones, I'll give him that

(cue Basil Brush)

SpinningHugo · Post by **SpinningHugo** » Sun 03 May, 2015 2:58 pm

TheGrimSqueaker wrote:
TechnicalEphemera wrote:The thing with the stone is the media has to talk about Labours policies to mock it.

Finally shut the tossers up about the SNP and post election wrangling.

Talking of which, if Cameron can't secure a majority without SNP/Labour, the second the SNP state they will vote his government down he has to go by convention.

It has become clear that the PM cannot secure the majority of the house.
A point was made in the Other Place that the person who has the ultimate say on whether something is constitutional or not, i.e. whether OGRFG can cling to power without the numbers, is the Speaker of the House. Which puts Hague's tawdry attempt to dispose of him before dissolution into an interesting new light.

The Speaker has nothing to do with who forms the government (or when Cameron must resign).

This all may be important come May 8th, which is why I have spent some time writing about it all

https://spinninghugo.wordpress.com/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

It is all VERY exciting.

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Sun 03 May, 2015 2:58 pm

Chris Riddell on the consequences of a Conservative victory
Observer comment cartoon
The grim reaper looms …

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfre ... aper-looms

tinyclanger2 · Post by **tinyclanger2** » Sun 03 May, 2015 2:59 pm

SpinningHugo wrote:What are we all doing on Thursday night then?

I'll be staying in quietly watching the results on TV. The Labour part post-election party I went to in 92 (in a marginal we managed to win) was so depressing that I have no attended one since.

For the avoidance of doubt, this won't be 92. EM will be PM.

I'll be here with spreadsheet and vermouth.
In equal measure.

frightful_oik · Post by **frightful_oik** » Sun 03 May, 2015 3:00 pm

RogerOThornhill wrote:Allow me a moment of personal grief - we've just been relegated. Couldn't win against a 10-man team with 9 changes and 2 debutants.

Heartfelt sympathies Roger. I know how you feel.

ohsocynical · Post by **ohsocynical** » Sun 03 May, 2015 3:02 pm

abby
‏@twcuddleston

I still don't understand why journalists went to my nans house, how would she know what #milifandom was? She's in her 70's!

So young bless her heart. This did make me laugh.

tinyclanger2 · Post by **tinyclanger2** » Sun 03 May, 2015 3:10 pm

Graun blog:

accused of his policies lacking compassion, Osborne "rejects the prism".

Vox populi, chaps.

ohsocynical · Post by **ohsocynical** » Sun 03 May, 2015 3:11 pm

Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB 11 hrs11 hours ago
Poll of Polls from Prof John Curtice in S Tel has CON 1% - which would lead to

CON 274 seats
LAB 292 seats

http://bit.ly/1GQuwBe" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

SpinningHugo · Post by **SpinningHugo** » Sun 03 May, 2015 3:17 pm

ohsocynical wrote:Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB 11 hrs11 hours ago
Poll of Polls from Prof John Curtice in S Tel has CON 1% - which would lead to

CON 274 seats
LAB 292 seats

http://bit.ly/1GQuwBe" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

If people are interested in betting, my view is that Smithson is right and the current 'spread' between Lab and Con is too big on sportingindex, and is well worth a 'sell'.I have chucked on a tenner a seat (which is big money if it pays off).

Willow904 · Post by **Willow904** » Sun 03 May, 2015 3:33 pm

http://www.headoflegal.com/2015/04/19/e ... olas-keys/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

There seems to be a !ot of disagreement over what happens if no party wins an overall majority. I found the above a very good discussion of historical precedent. If Cameron can't get a Queen's Speech through he must resign, if he hasn't done so already, and the Queen will invite the leader of the party most likely to be able to command a majority to become PM which would normally be the biggest or next biggest party. There is no necessity for this leader to already have put together a majority before he becomes PM and present a Queen's Speech, so he doesn't have to do a deal with any other party in order to enter a minority government.

Of course, what would happen if a PM refused to resign having lost a Queen's Speech is anyone's guess as it's never happened and I'm guessing this is where the speaker would come in as he would have the ability to allow a motion of "no confidence" be put to the house in order to remove him. No one really thinks it would come to that, though, surely?

yahyah · Post by **yahyah** » Sun 03 May, 2015 3:44 pm

SpinningHugo wrote:What are we all doing on Thursday night then?

I'll be staying in quietly watching the results on TV. The Labour part post-election party I went to in 92 (in a marginal we managed to win) was so depressing that I have no attended one since.

For the avoidance of doubt, this won't be 92. EM will be PM.

I hope you'll be here sometime in the night Hugo.

My strategy is to ignore it all on Thursday, do my weekly shop, go walking and physically exhaust myself. Then go to bed early, without mini-radio on and sleep, setting the alarm for 2am and then check the results on Radio 4.

Will log onto FTN & switch on the TV in the early hours for news, views, and hopefully, some sort of celebration.

Not sure it'll go according to plan, am not one to sleep well if anxious.

LadyCentauria · Post by **LadyCentauria** » Sun 03 May, 2015 3:48 pm

SpinningHugo wrote:Mind you, it does look a bit like a tombstone. And that isn't a good look.

Is that just because we're only accustomed to seeing words carved on gravestones/tombstones, and rolls of 'the glorious dead' these days? Other than those, what do we have in the modern day? I suppose we could count "Nation shall speak peace unto Nation" in Old Broadcasting House's reception, or "To the friendship of English speaking peoples" over the main door of Bush House, or "Heavens! what a goodly Prospect spreads around. Of Hills and Dales, and Woods, and Lawns, and Spires, And glittering Towns, and gilded Streams, till all the stretching Landskip into smoke decays!" which is part of a poem, carved in a spiral, on a circular stone atop King Henry's Mound in Richmond Park. The first two require people to look up, which they rarely seem to do, and the third calls for people to look down but not many seem to do that, either.

In line of sight, well, for those who look at the back of the massive stone bench outside the Supreme Court, there's a poem by Andrew Motion which I regard as his best work:

Tides tumbled sand through seas long-lost to earth; sand hardened into-stone – stone cut, then brought
To frame the letter of our four nations’ law and square the circle of a single court.

Here Justice sits and lifts her steady scales within the Abbey’s sight and Parliaments
But independent of them both. And bound by truth of principle and argument.

A thousand years of judgment stretch behind – the weight of rights and freedoms balancing
With fairness and with duty to the world: the clarity time-honoured thinking brings.

New structures but an old foundation stone: the mind of Justice still at liberty
Four nations separate but linked as one: the light of reason falling equally.

There are other places with inspirational words and pledges and promises carven into stone but these are the four I know best. They are vastly outnumbered by funerary stones and commemorations of lives lost, the stock in trade of the mason's craft, sadly.

BTW, I enjoyed reading your blog posts, Hugo. Re: the one in response to thingy-whose-name-has-just-escaped-me, I'm of your view on the matter and have been telling a lot of people, recently, that they can ignore the FTPA at the point of a General Election and the creation of a new Government immediately post-GE.

tinyclanger2 · Post by **tinyclanger2** » Sun 03 May, 2015 3:52 pm

Cameron is a complete and utter ****

I know it's not news, but a feel a bit better.

AngryAsWell · Post by **AngryAsWell** » Sun 03 May, 2015 3:56 pm

The permanent secretary to the Treasury, Sir Nicholas Macpherson, has argued that the 2008 financial crisis was “a banking crisis pure and simple”, contradicting Conservative claims that it was caused by Labour over-spending.
His surprising remarks come after Ed Miliband came under pressure on a leader’s question time debate last week that Labour government had overspent, a view strengthened by the notorious letter left by the former Liam Byrne treasury chief secretary to his successor saying there is “no money left”.

A fact well known - but good to see it in print

http://www.theguardian.com/business/201 ... are_btn_tw" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

ohsocynical · Post by **ohsocynical** » Sun 03 May, 2015 3:56 pm

Off topic, but I've just been watching a crow chase off a Red Kite. The Kite has begun to hover over our house because of the birds that come down to feed. I only put seed and bread scraps out, but today threw out a small amount of stewing steak that had been in the freezer for quite a while. It's proved very popular and I doubt the Kite will get any of it....

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Sun 03 May, 2015 3:59 pm

Financial crisis not caused by Labour over-spending, says top Treasury official
Patrick Wintour

Patrick Wintour

Sir Nicholas Macpherson, the permanent secretary to the Treasury, has argued that the 2008 financial crisis was “a banking crisis pure and simple”, contradicting Conservative claims that it was caused by Labour over-spending, Patrick Wintour reports. (Guardian Election Blog, 15.26)

Oh, wonderful! That's made my day!