Thursday 7th May

Post by **refitman** » Fri 08 May, 2015 1:22 am

Newcastle upon Tyne Central

Lab hold with a 36.1% majority, 57% turnout
candidates votes %
Chi Onwurah 19,301 55.0% Labour
Simon Kitchen 6,628 18.9% Cons
Daniel Thompson 5,214 14.9% Ukip
Nick Cott 2,218 6.3% Lib Dem
Alexander Johnson 1,724 4.9% Green

pk1 · Post by **pk1** » Fri 08 May, 2015 1:22 am

Battersea, Con hold

Swing Lab to Con 1.7%

tinyclanger2 · Post by **tinyclanger2** » Fri 08 May, 2015 1:23 am

I feel so terrible for the many decent British people, and especially those of you on here who have worked so hard to give Labour a chance.

Post by **refitman** » Fri 08 May, 2015 1:23 am

Cons hold Battersea.

WelshIan · Post by **WelshIan** » Fri 08 May, 2015 1:23 am

cons hold battersea - swing lab to con 1.7%

LadyCentauria · Post by **LadyCentauria** » Fri 08 May, 2015 1:24 am

Battersea: Cons hold (sad about this as was a hopeful challenge although would have required largeish swing which has gone the wrong way)

howsillyofme1 · Post by **howsillyofme1** » Fri 08 May, 2015 1:25 am

I think we are looking at a Tory majority

pk1 · Post by **pk1** » Fri 08 May, 2015 1:27 am

howsillyofme1 wrote:I think we are looking at a Tory majority

640 seats still to declare !

AngryAsWell · Post by **AngryAsWell** » Fri 08 May, 2015 1:27 am

Nick Tyrone ‏@NicholasTyrone · 3 mins3 minutes ago
Big rumour now is that Balls has lost his seat...

This is after the earlier one

mbc1955 · Post by **mbc1955** » Fri 08 May, 2015 1:27 am

If the Lib Dems have completely collapsed then, stepping aside from the larger picture for a moment, it is only deserved, and something that I have been predicting from five years ago. I am a lifelong Liberal voter, and I was unforgivably betrayed and the eradication of the Lib Dems is a fitting fate.

Between this and Farage, this may be a night of winning battles but a war lost without recovery.

howsillyofme1 · Post by **howsillyofme1** » Fri 08 May, 2015 1:28 am

pk1 wrote:
howsillyofme1 wrote:I think we are looking at a Tory majority
640 seats still to declare !

I know but exit poll looks about right - and if we are seeing swings to the Tories in London then what about elsewhere?

The Lib Dem vote in Tory/Labour marginals is going more to the Tories than Labour

AngryAsWell · Post by **AngryAsWell** » Fri 08 May, 2015 1:28 am

BBC Wales Politics ‏@WalesPolitics · 36 secs37 seconds ago
Wrexham:

Lab 12,181
Con 10,350
UKIP 5,072
PC 2,501
LD 1,735
Green 669
Ind 211

pk1 · Post by **pk1** » Fri 08 May, 2015 1:30 am

Wrexham, Lab holdThe

2.9% Lab to Con

TechnicalEphemera · Post by **TechnicalEphemera** » Fri 08 May, 2015 1:30 am

Tish wrote:Oh god this is horrible.

It looks like the LibDems have totally collapsed and their vote has scattered to the wind. I'm baffled as to why anyone who voted LibDem last time would cross to the Tories now, but looking at the Tooting result that seems to be what has happened. Add UKIP eating into the Labour vote and the rise and rise of the SNP and its like a perfect storm sending us straight to hell.

This looks like the SNP factor at play. In some respects things would have been better for Labour if the Indyref had gone yes, it would have removed the Tories strongest card. Lib Dems breaking Tory in Con/Lab marginals is a big issue.

I guess we can look at a potential Tory majority here. But as others have said, hang tough.

Cameron has to fight Euro Ref, the global economy is cooling and he will have a small majority.

One problem may be if he pushes EVEL through, this will only be possible with a majority as the DUP won't have it.

Lib Dems have some big decisions to make now.

Hobiejoe · Post by **Hobiejoe** » Fri 08 May, 2015 1:32 am

Fuck.

edit* sorry, F$$%. Nuneaton

pk1 · Post by **pk1** » Fri 08 May, 2015 1:33 am

If LDs are reduced to 10 or so & Cons short of 10, will Clegg really throw his party in with them again ?

Post by **refitman** » Fri 08 May, 2015 1:34 am

Possible recount in Twickenham (Cable).

GetYou · Post by **GetYou** » Fri 08 May, 2015 1:37 am

This is horrible, like 92 all over again. Lib dems going over to the Tories, ukip taking more from labour than the Tories, worst of all worlds. Bollockios

tinyclanger2 · Post by **tinyclanger2** » Fri 08 May, 2015 1:38 am

Which could suggest that we are indeed a predominantly vile people. I was hoping it wasn't the case.

pk1 · Post by **pk1** » Fri 08 May, 2015 1:41 am

Recount in Nuneaton

howsillyofme1 · Post by **howsillyofme1** » Fri 08 May, 2015 1:42 am

pk1 wrote:Recount in Nuneaton

for win, or for lost deposit?

tinyclanger2 · Post by **tinyclanger2** » Fri 08 May, 2015 1:43 am

Apologies for accusing nation of being vile. Was a low moment.

What do we do between now and 5 years time to turn this around. I'm game.

WelshIan · Post by **WelshIan** » Fri 08 May, 2015 1:43 am

GetYou wrote:This is horrible, like 92 all over again. Lib dems going over to the Tories, ukip taking more from labour than the Tories, worst of all worlds. Bollockios

And Scotland going almost completely SNP.

tinyclanger2 · Post by **tinyclanger2** » Fri 08 May, 2015 1:44 am

My own feeling is:

#1 - make sure Miliband stays as leader

pk1 · Post by **pk1** » Fri 08 May, 2015 1:44 am

howsillyofme1 wrote:
pk1 wrote:Recount in Nuneaton
for win, or for lost deposit?

No idea I'm afraid.

RogerOThornhill · Post by **RogerOThornhill** » Fri 08 May, 2015 1:46 am

Could Dimbleby be any ,more biased?

A discussion about the possibility of Cameron maybe being the last PM of he UK and Dimbleby comes out with "So it's Labour who's to blame!"

Tories will come to regret the "Beware of the Scots!" rhetoric they've used in this election.

AngryAsWell · Post by **AngryAsWell** » Fri 08 May, 2015 1:46 am

tinyclanger2 wrote:My own feeling is:

#1 - make sure Miliband stays as leader

Agree 100%

Hobiejoe · Post by **Hobiejoe** » Fri 08 May, 2015 1:47 am

AngryAsWell wrote:
tinyclanger2 wrote:My own feeling is:

#1 - make sure Miliband stays as leader
Agree 100%

Absolutely.

howsillyofme1 · Post by **howsillyofme1** » Fri 08 May, 2015 1:48 am

tinyclanger2 wrote:My own feeling is:

#1 - make sure Miliband stays as leader

A potential must...he had a good campaign

The issue for me is where does the country go from here - Scotland has a leftish hue but the aim is for breakaway and England is a purple shade of blue.

Where does Labour go from here....?

On the positive side the Tories will have to govern, the SNP will have to play a useful role in Westminster and 2010 will seem a long way away in 2020

Labour cannot make the mistakes of the Tories after the 2001 election

pk1 · Post by **pk1** » Fri 08 May, 2015 1:50 am

@bbckamal Nick Clegg's official spokesman admits Lib Dem leader "disappointed" about #GE2015 Admits is a "bad night" @BBCElection

Post by **refitman** » Fri 08 May, 2015 1:51 am

Clwyd South
Lab hold with a 6.8% majority, 64% turnout
candidates votes %
Susan Elan Jones 13,051 37.2% Labour
David Nicholls 10,649 30.4% Cons
Mandy Jones 5,480 15.6% Ukip
Mabon ap Gwynfor 3,620 10.3% Plaid
Bruce Roberts 1,349 3.9% Lib Dem
Duncan Rees 915 2.6% Green

RogerOThornhill · Post by **RogerOThornhill** » Fri 08 May, 2015 1:52 am

Terrible result in Numeaton - swing Lab to Con of 3%

Tubby Isaacs · Post by **Tubby Isaacs** » Fri 08 May, 2015 1:52 am

RogerOThornhill wrote:Could Dimbleby be any ,more biased?

A discussion about the possibility of Cameron maybe being the last PM of he UK and Dimbleby comes out with "So it's Labour who's to blame!"

Tories will come to regret the "Beware of the Scots!" rhetoric they've used in this election.

They don't care at all.

They're already thinking of the tax competition they can have with Scotland.

yahyah · Post by **yahyah** » Fri 08 May, 2015 1:54 am

Morning everyone.

Am half asleep, shell shocked, been listening to the radio on headphones in bed.

Is it too early to think it is as bad as it might look ?

Hobiejoe · Post by **Hobiejoe** » Fri 08 May, 2015 1:55 am

RogerOThornhill wrote:Terrible result in Numeaton - swing Lab to Con of 3%

Swing in the Hobiejoe kitchen back to despair.

On top of which Simon Hughes is splurging his mantra on ITV. Although he is, true to nature squirming.

But the LD's are now an irrelevance.

TechnicalEphemera · Post by **TechnicalEphemera** » Fri 08 May, 2015 1:55 am

yahyah wrote:Morning everyone.

Am half asleep, shell shocked, been listening to the radio on headphones in bed.

Is it too early to think it is as bad as it might look ?

It is probably worse than it looks if Nuneaton is a guide.

tinyclanger2 · Post by **tinyclanger2** » Fri 08 May, 2015 1:57 am

I guess a lot of people must just think they're a lot better off than they are. And have no idea what's coming.

I guess there's a few quid left in the country for the Tories to empty into their pockets before they leave it for someone who actually gives a shit to come and rebuild it

WelshIan · Post by **WelshIan** » Fri 08 May, 2015 1:57 am

Hobiejoe wrote:
AngryAsWell wrote:
tinyclanger2 wrote:My own feeling is:

#1 - make sure Miliband stays as leader
Agree 100%
Absolutely.

I agree he has to stay.
But how many MPs will agree with that? The press will be saying he has to go, and that will be relentless, and people like Danczuk will also say he has to go.

Anyway, we need to wait and see what the final picture is. Labour may end up with 10 more seats than the exit poll suggests and that gives a rather different view of the end result.

edit to add:
Although Nuneaton may suggest 250 for Labour is far too optimistic.

AngryAsWell · Post by **AngryAsWell** » Fri 08 May, 2015 1:57 am

Aaron John Bastani
‏@AaronBastani BBC worse than Berlusconi owned media in Italy according to @FedCampagna #GeneralElection #GE2015

Worth a read of the attached on the status

pk1 · Post by **pk1** » Fri 08 May, 2015 1:58 am

Ashcroft did constituency polling in Nuneaton & found an expected swing of 5% Con to Lab !

http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2015/03/nuneaton-2/

TechnicalEphemera · Post by **TechnicalEphemera** » Fri 08 May, 2015 1:58 am

WelshIan wrote:
Hobiejoe wrote:
AngryAsWell wrote: Agree 100%
Absolutely.
I agree he has to stay.
But how many MPs will agree with that? The press will be saying he has to go, and that will be relentless, and people like Danczuk will also say he has to go.

Anyway, we need to wait and see what the final picture is. Labour may end up with 10 more seats than the exit poll suggests and that gives a rather different view of the end result.

Not sure about that. Tories must have Labour seats in play on this result.

yahyah · Post by **yahyah** » Fri 08 May, 2015 1:59 am

Well, at least it looks as if Farage won't get in.

pk1 · Post by **pk1** » Fri 08 May, 2015 2:01 am

@PaulTwinn
Rumour from the count in Southwark says it looks like Simon Hughes might have lost his seat to Labour.

WelshIan · Post by **WelshIan** » Fri 08 May, 2015 2:02 am

TechnicalEphemera wrote:
WelshIan wrote:
Anyway, we need to wait and see what the final picture is. Labour may end up with 10 more seats than the exit poll suggests and that gives a rather different view of the end result.
Not sure about that. Tories must have Labour seats in play on this result.

Yeah, hadn't seen the Nuneaton swing when I wrote that.

howsillyofme1 · Post by **howsillyofme1** » Fri 08 May, 2015 2:02 am

yahyah wrote:Well, at least it looks as if Farage won't get in.

One Farage is better than a Tory majority Government

It looks like there will be virtually no Liberals now either

A real game changing election....and not for the better

rebeccariots2 · Post by **rebeccariots2** » Fri 08 May, 2015 2:02 am

We've got the BBC Wales coverage on in the background. It is depressing in its patronising and crass treatment of young people ... truly awful.

More depressing than that though is the rise of Ukip in all of the results declared so far. I am utterly chilled by what this could mean for the next Assembly elections where we have PR in play.

yahyah · Post by **yahyah** » Fri 08 May, 2015 2:04 am

pk1 wrote:@PaulTwinn
Rumour from the count in Southwark says it looks like Simon Hughes might have lost his seat to Labour.

It should make me smile but am feeling too low to smirk.

WelshIan · Post by **WelshIan** » Fri 08 May, 2015 2:06 am

pk1 wrote:@PaulTwinn
Rumour from the count in Southwark says it looks like Simon Hughes might have lost his seat to Labour.

good. fingers crossed.

WelshIan · Post by **WelshIan** » Fri 08 May, 2015 2:09 am

Neil Kinnock good here (on the BBC)

There are enough people who are willing to accept that myth and then think they are voting for their own security by voting for Conservative candidates
...

The awful thing is, it’s not simply those people who, relatively innocently, are working against their own interests. The real price will be paid by those who truly are innocent.

LadyCentauria · Post by **LadyCentauria** » Fri 08 May, 2015 2:11 am

Ceredigion: LD hold