Friday 8th May 2015

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pk1
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Re: Friday 8th May 2015

Post by pk1 »

PorFavor wrote: What can I say?
I just blubbed when I got mine. There is nothing that can cheer me today, nothing at all.
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rebeccariots2
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Re: Friday 8th May 2015

Post by rebeccariots2 »

Isabel Hardman ‏@IsabelHardman 7m7 minutes ago
V.much recommend this post by @jreedmp on what happened to Labour last night. Thoughtful and honest http://specc.ie/1DWaocl
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tinyclanger2
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Re: Friday 8th May 2015

Post by tinyclanger2 »

Campaigns are about future & Cameron was viewed as having the more optimistic vision for future by 10+ pts
OK so basically I'm just in some sort of alternative reality, because I don't remember any bit of campaigning where Cameron was either.
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PorFavor
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Re: Friday 8th May 2015

Post by PorFavor »

pk1 wrote:
PorFavor wrote: What can I say?
I just blubbed when I got mine. There is nothing that can cheer me today, nothing at all.
I know how you feel. Not that I expect that to be of the slightest consolation.
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daydreamer
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Re: Friday 8th May 2015

Post by daydreamer »

tinyclanger2 wrote:
Campaigns are about future & Cameron was viewed as having the more optimistic vision for future by 10+ pts
OK so basically I'm just in some sort of alternative reality, because I don't remember any bit of campaigning where Cameron was either.
The country's jumped the shark :(
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rebeccariots2
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Re: Friday 8th May 2015

Post by rebeccariots2 »

Rentoul's tweets today have been utterly vile.
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daydreamer
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Re: Friday 8th May 2015

Post by daydreamer »

RobertSnozers wrote:Just had a long chat with my dad, who came up with a point that I hadn't arrived at. I haven't studied the figures so I can't say if it works or not, but it looks as though Ukip did far more damage to Labour than to the Tories. Apparently a lot of the Conservative marginals that Labour needed to take had large Ukip votes, while the Tory vote seemingly held up.

This is going to be a problem. We're going to have leftists telling Labour they should have been leftier, Blairites telling them they should have been more neoliberal and bigots like Danczuk will tell Labour they should have been more down on the foreigners.
Yes, it'll be a real problem, unfortunately.
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rebeccariots2
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Re: Friday 8th May 2015

Post by rebeccariots2 »

RobertSnozers wrote:Just had a long chat with my dad, who came up with a point that I hadn't arrived at. I haven't studied the figures so I can't say if it works or not, but it looks as though Ukip did far more damage to Labour than to the Tories. Apparently a lot of the Conservative marginals that Labour needed to take had large Ukip votes, while the Tory vote seemingly held up.

This is going to be a problem. We're going to have leftists telling Labour they should have been leftier, Blairites telling them they should have been more neoliberal and bigots like Danczuk will tell Labour they should have been more down on the foreigners.
Yes - the attack is from all sides. The Ukip rise in Wales is really scary. They outpolled Plaid here and in other seats. But a large part of the answer does have to be to make sure there is a real connection between candidates and communities - as we've been discussing.
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tinyclanger2
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Re: Friday 8th May 2015

Post by tinyclanger2 »

I was seething about this earlier, but on reflection (at least currently) think UKIP's take of votes from Labour needs looking at with a cool head. In the NL (which is the only other country I know much about), Geerd Wilders achieved similar traction among the "WWCM" contingent who are worried about economic migrants taking jobs. I am not saying this is rational I am just saying this is the belief.
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AngryAsWell
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Re: Friday 8th May 2015

Post by AngryAsWell »

General Election: 7 May 2015
The final opinion polls before the election were clearly not as accurate as we would like, and the fact that all the pollsters underestimated the Conservative lead over Labour suggests that the methods that were used should be subject to careful, independent investigation.

The British Polling Council, supported by the Market Research Society, is therefore setting up an independent enquiry to look into the possible causes of this apparent bias, and to make recommendations for future polling.

We are pleased to announce that Professor Patrick Sturgis, who is Professor of Research Methodology and Director of the ESRC National Centre for Research Methods, has agreed to chair the enquiry, and will take the lead in setting its terms of reference. The membership of the enquiry will be announced in due course.
http://www.britishpollingcouncil.org/ge ... -may-2015/
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tinyclanger2
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Re: Friday 8th May 2015

Post by tinyclanger2 »

If I recall yesterday, there was one rogue, (new)? polling company calling a much higher number of Tory seats and it was pretty much sidelined. Anyone remember it?
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PorFavor
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Re: Friday 8th May 2015

Post by PorFavor »

The interesting thing would be to know how much polls affect turnout (on "both" sides - ie perceived leaders and laggers).
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TheGrimSqueaker
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Re: Friday 8th May 2015

Post by TheGrimSqueaker »

rebeccariots2 wrote:Rentoul's tweets today have been utterly vile.
Plus ça change ......
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PorFavor
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Re: Friday 8th May 2015

Post by PorFavor »

tinyclanger2 wrote:If I recall yesterday, there was one rogue, (new)? polling company calling a much higher number of Tory seats and it was pretty much sidelined. Anyone remember it?
Yes - I remember its existence and seeing the figures (which were much derided). Can't for the life of me remember the name of the polling company, though. Which is probably what you wanted to know. You find it, type it and hum it. I'll edit it . . . .



Edited to add

Did it begin with a "B"?
Last edited by PorFavor on Fri 08 May, 2015 3:19 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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LadyCentauria
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Re: Friday 8th May 2015

Post by LadyCentauria »

UKIP came 2nd in 120 seats and 3rd in 324...
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yahyah
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Re: Friday 8th May 2015

Post by yahyah »

letsskiptotheleft wrote:Personally I'd be quite happy with Tom Watson being deputy PM. Someone willing to get stuck in, with the odd two footed tackle.

Murdoch hates him. Ok, Murdoch hates anyone in Labour but he hates Tom Watson because of exposing phone hacking.

I'm not suggesting we try and find someone Murdoch approves of - Murdoch can go screw himself....just someone that isn't going to send Sun journos into spasms of hate every minute of the day.
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TheGrimSqueaker
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Re: Friday 8th May 2015

Post by TheGrimSqueaker »

PorFavor wrote:
tinyclanger2 wrote:If I recall yesterday, there was one rogue, (new)? polling company calling a much higher number of Tory seats and it was pretty much sidelined. Anyone remember it?
Yes - I remember its existence and seeing the figures (which were much derided). Can't for the life of me remember the name of the polling company, though. Which is probably what you wanted to know. You find it, type it and hum it. I'll edit it . . . .



Edited to add

Did it begin with a "B"?
BMG?
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AngryAsWell
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Re: Friday 8th May 2015

Post by AngryAsWell »

Ray woolford ‏@Raywoolford · 1 min1 minute ago
Wellcome 2 Tory election win .We Care food bank shop landlord wants to put rent up from £7.500 per year 2 £28.000 ! We will have 2 relocate
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Re: Friday 8th May 2015

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LadyCentauria
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Re: Friday 8th May 2015

Post by LadyCentauria »

St. Ives: Con gain - Andrew George is out
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Re: Friday 8th May 2015

Post by LadyCentauria »

Final result Con 331; Lab 232; SNP 56; LD 8; Green 1; UKIP 1; Plaid Cymru 3; Democratic Unionist Party 8; Sinn Fein 4; SDLP 3; UUP3; independent 1
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TheGrimSqueaker
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Re: Friday 8th May 2015

Post by TheGrimSqueaker »

AngryAsWell wrote:Ray woolford ‏@Raywoolford · 1 min1 minute ago
Wellcome 2 Tory election win .We Care food bank shop landlord wants to put rent up from £7.500 per year 2 £28.000 ! We will have 2 relocate
And so it begins ......
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GetYou
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Re: Friday 8th May 2015

Post by GetYou »

5 more years of me not we

5 more years of fear not hope

The people of this country have spoken, and said "fuck the other guy"

Not sure if I can bear to live here anymore.
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Re: Friday 8th May 2015

Post by StephenDolan »

TheGrimSqueaker wrote:
AngryAsWell wrote:Ray woolford ‏@Raywoolford · 1 min1 minute ago
Wellcome 2 Tory election win .We Care food bank shop landlord wants to put rent up from £7.500 per year 2 £28.000 ! We will have 2 relocate
And so it begins ......
Generation Rent, if you didn't vote Labour you've scuppered yourself.
And the same goes for public sector workers, the low paid,...
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daydreamer
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Re: Friday 8th May 2015

Post by daydreamer »

GetYou wrote:5 more years of me not we

5 more years of fear not hope

The people of this country have spoken, and said "fuck the other guy"

Not sure if I can bear to live here anymore.
I sure as hell don't want to depress anyone any further than they already are, but it'll probably be more than 5 years after they've put into place their boundary changes and enacted EVEL :cry: Don't underestimate their desire to remain in permanent power at any cost.
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PorFavor
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Re: Friday 8th May 2015

Post by PorFavor »

Ok.

The monarchy, at least in its present bloated, outdated form, is on my "must go" list (this isn't new for me but it's shot up my agenda of priorities). I think the monarchy goes a fair way to being responsible for why the British are so happy, eager even, to be treated like dirt. They revel in it.
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daydreamer
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Re: Friday 8th May 2015

Post by daydreamer »

StephenDolan wrote:
TheGrimSqueaker wrote:
AngryAsWell wrote:Ray woolford ‏@Raywoolford · 1 min1 minute ago
Wellcome 2 Tory election win .We Care food bank shop landlord wants to put rent up from £7.500 per year 2 £28.000 ! We will have 2 relocate
And so it begins ......
Generation Rent, if you didn't vote Labour you've scuppered yourself.
And the same goes for public sector workers, the low paid,...
I'm a public sector worker and low paid (likely to become even more low paid as public services are decimated and outsourced to Serco and Amey, - if I even keep my job in the doubtless next round of redundancies, and at the mercy of the DWP gestapo), and I did vote Labour. Sadly, it had no affect as I'm in a safe Labour seat. We need to get rid of FPTP.
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daydreamer
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Re: Friday 8th May 2015

Post by daydreamer »

PorFavor wrote:Ok.

The monarchy, at least in its present bloated, outdated form, is on my "must go" list (this isn't new for me but it's shot up my agenda of priorities). I think the monarchy goes a fair way to being responsible for why the British are so happy, eager even, to be treated like dirt. They revel in it.
This. :heart:
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StephenDolan
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Re: Friday 8th May 2015

Post by StephenDolan »

Now that the election is over, can we expect Carney to justify keeping interest rates low?

Presumably the AAA rating will be returning soon too.
seeingclearly
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Re: Friday 8th May 2015

Post by seeingclearly »

PorFavor wrote:This may be (probably is) the wrong time but . . .

Whilst Tony Blair was in office, I wrote to Labour saying that political education\civics - call it what you will - was something that was woefully neglected in our education system and needed some serious beefing up. I received a very snippy reply. Apparently it was all in hand and everything was as it should be. A missed opportunity - whether through arrogance or calculation I can't decide.
I wrote a magnificent reply to this and lost it, but yes could not agree more. I studied regional history at a non British school from the age of fifteen, and civics too,in what I can only cal grand style. Texts books from half a dozen nations and when history was being made we studied directly from contemporary journals and papers. No TV at all and of course no internet. It brought everything to life and the crossover between history and politics was emphasised. I guess it's why I'm a political watcher. I've forgotten a lot more than I remember I was nearly fifteen when I went there.

I have to say I was not a little envious of my classmates, they could use log books and slide rules too, and knew calculus and were eight years into learning Latin, and could translate speeches by people I'd never heard of direct from their text books. Some of them could also debate abstruse philosophicAl points from commentaries on Buddhist and Hindu teachings.

They treated me a bit like a rare but rather stupid exotic, for them, species, and wanted to know about television. I told them about Dixon of Dock Green, and Perry Mason, and Dr Kildare, but they only really became enthusiastic when I mentioned civil rights, which they'd all seen on the newsreels at the pictures. Was England like that too, they wanted to know, and I assured them that it wasn't, and yes everyone could sit on the same part of the bus. I caught up in history and civics, loved them, what an eye opener into how things worked, but maths and Latin are still distant shores, though inexplicably I'm great with plant names and anatomy! I'm still learning about social history here though. Was very taken with The Iron Heel a few years ago, which strictly speaking isn't from here, it kind of seems an appropriate mention today.

I'm wittering a bit, I know, but underneath I'm utterly gutted, not least by Mr Ed, who I really think ought to go off and put together a bunch of caring intelligent knowledgeable international people and start a new forward looking social and environmental party which will sweep the boards of our tired global politics and engage people in ways they haven't been engaged before. I don't want it to be based on the way many activists have been over the last decade, there's too much nonsense embedded in their movements. I'd like to see the good things though, he's so capable, and really deserved an awful lot more.

Apologies for not keeping you company last night I had to go somewhere where I could be a lot more vocal and work through things without giving offence. And thanks for the pages and pages of heartfelt reaction to last night events.

I was heartened by two things. The constituency across the road from me which has been a mixture of kippers and decent people got rid of the awful John Hemmings and voted Labour. Merthyr and Rhymney where Tredegar is and where my grandfather is buried and my brother was baptised also Labour. I don't know why that was a comfort, but it was.

I'm not least gutted because my young 'un, now going on 24 with no prospect of work, had been sceptical of the prospect of change, and I'd been holding out the possibility of a change of government. I should have taken Eds lead and not offered any promises, but then again when good ones were not just offered, but promised and backed up they were ignored. There were a fair few people hoping for a remission from Bedroom Tax, among other hopes and dreams now lost.
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Re: Friday 8th May 2015

Post by Tubby Isaacs »

StephenDolan wrote:So more powers to Scotland and EVEL asap. Sturgeon and Cameron must be very pleased.
Yep.

These proper Scottish MPs who for the first time will give Scotland a voice at Westminster are going to be voting on fewer matters.
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tinyclanger2
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Re: Friday 8th May 2015

Post by tinyclanger2 »

The Conservatives benefited disproportionately from the collapse of the Lib Dems. Effectively, all their gains came from the Lib Dems.
So basically, if the sodding LibDems hadn't basically set themselves up as Tories things would probably have been very different. But what can we get done in opposition?

- Leveson - boycott? But it would have to be serious. Who would lead it? Brand?
- EVEL - this is toxic and the wrong solution to the deliberately misdiagnosed problem - this has the potential to stir a hideous English nationlaism which will make the SNP look like kittens.
- Europe - ???
- Britain - ???
- Bedroom tax
- Food banks
- (specialist on disability benefits please add the main things here)
- voter engagement - citizenship
- anti-bastard coalition-building
- anything else

the list is potentially endless, and we have very little time (though as mentioned earlier, at the same time far too long).
Which existing groups/movements are best placed to lead which issues?

I understand Labour have a leader to appoint, but in the meantime they need to start on their bits of this.
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tinyclanger2
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Re: Friday 8th May 2015

Post by tinyclanger2 »

Still at least it's going to be pretty easy not to risk switching the telly on for a year or five. Should make me a bit more efficient.
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Re: Friday 8th May 2015

Post by PorFavor »

I'm at a complete loss at the moment to come up with what we should be fighting to replace this lot with. Replace them we must and as quickly as possible. But what (mainly) or who do we get behind in order to do it? I don't want to live in a medieval theme-park but I feel rudderless. At times like these I think I get the point of "The Prisoner". A bit like I do with calculus and cricket. But I can't pin it down for very long.

Sorry if I'm not making sense. But I think we lost the "what" along with the "who" today.
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Re: Friday 8th May 2015

Post by StephenDolan »

tinyclanger2 wrote:
The Conservatives benefited disproportionately from the collapse of the Lib Dems. Effectively, all their gains came from the Lib Dems.
So basically, if the sodding LibDems hadn't basically set themselves up as Tories things would probably have been very different. But what can we get done in opposition?

- Leveson - boycott? But it would have to be serious. Who would lead it? Brand?
- EVEL - this is toxic and the wrong solution to the deliberately misdiagnosed problem - this has the potential to stir a hideous English nationlaism which will make the SNP look like kittens.
- Europe - ???
- Britain - ???
- Bedroom tax
- Food banks
- (specialist on disability benefits please add the main things here)
- voter engagement - citizenship
- anti-bastard coalition-building
- anything else

the list is potentially endless, and we have very little time (though as mentioned earlier, at the same time far too long).
Which existing groups/movements are best placed to lead which issues?

I understand Labour have a leader to appoint, but in the meantime they need to start on their bits of this.

Labour didn't take many marginals. This was the main reason. The Lib Dems collapse was the cherry on top.
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Re: Friday 8th May 2015

Post by yahyah »

& just to say I don't take offence at Tizme calling one of the Watford candidates The Dotty Mare.
Some may see that as offensive as dotty means mentally unbalanced.

As someone who was diagnosed with OCD, and has suffered anxiety & depression during my years - it doesn't bother me to call someone a name like that. I call myself potty or mad.

I, and many others here think Pippa Bartolotti is potty, not Dotty.
But she doesn't look like a horse, so maybe Potty Bat rather than Dotty Mare ?
She's got great hair though.
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Re: Friday 8th May 2015

Post by PorFavor »

@tinyclanger2

I've just read your post and I think we're singing from the same hymn sheet. Except mine appears to be written in Sanskrit.
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Re: Friday 8th May 2015

Post by tinyclanger2 »

Whereas I went for a minor local dialect of Old Saxon.
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Re: Friday 8th May 2015

Post by StephenDolan »

So... Andy Coulson. Was there a restart date?
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Re: Friday 8th May 2015

Post by TechnicalEphemera »

StephenDolan wrote:
SpinningHugo wrote:The advantages the Labour opposition had are enormous. They include

(i) The collapse off the Liberal Democrats.

Soon after the 2010 General Election, the Liberal Democrat vote more than halved. In 2010 the Liberal Democrats received 23% of the vote. In 2015 only .The proximate cause of this change was the reneging on the promise not to raise tuition fees. These votes, at least initially, seemed to go to Labour, which received an immediate poll boost.

This alone, should have been enough to give Labour victory.

(ii) The rise of Ukip.

In the 2010 General Election Ukip received 3% of the vote. In 2015 . Now, some of these voters were drawn from Labour, or non-voters, but a plurality came from the Conservative party.

This alone should have been enough to give Labour victory.

(iii) Austerity and Incompetence

In 2010 Mervyn King warned that "whoever wins this election will be out of power for a whole generation because of how tough the fiscal austerity will have to be".

http://www.theguardian.com/business/201 ... ion-victor

In other European countries this has proven so. Whatever one thinks of the policy on austerity, its unpopularity was bound to hit the parties of government.

This has been exacerbated by several instances of government incompetence. The Health and Social Care Act as a largely pointless and unpopular reform, appearing to give a lie to the promise of 'no top down reorganisation of the NHS." (Claiming that it was in fact bottom up was a subtlety lost on most.) Ian Duncan Smith was, as we all know, the worst and most incompetent minister in living memory.

Outside of Scotland, this election was extraordinarily propitious for Labour.

Now, Scotland was something beyond the current leadership's control. They were not responsible for the decades of Labour neglect in Scotland, nor the independence referendum, nor to the surge of feeling that gave rise to on both sides of the border.

But, the major factor in the defeat was the leadership.

The leader elected was an indulgent choice. He was, and remains in my view, the weakest of all the serious candidates. For five years we have had drift. The policy review was a joke. His pivot to the left and abandonment of the positions adopted by the last government were predicated on the 3 factors I listed above giving victory. .

This has proven a terrible mistake.

Now some of the more absolutist amongst you will claim Labour should not sell its soul for power.

This is a bad mistake. It is very hard for a modern government to transform society for the good. Very easy to make things much worse quickly, and inflict horrific misery on the least well off. The Lib Dems may have been Quislings, and have suffered the fate they deserved, but they did operate as a brake.

We are about to find out what a Tory majority government can do.

The first duty of the Labour party is to keep the Tories out. Everything on top is a bonus.

We cannot afford to be as purist and self indulgent as we have been.
SH the main driver was the failure to address the Labour overspending caused the crash myth early and repelling often. I realise in a partisan media environment that this was hard but that careless and profligate badge stuck.
No - the main driver as Lib Dem polling shows, Guardian and personal anecdotes suggest was Scotland. Specifically fear of the SNP drove a desire for a stable government. People voted Tory aiming for continuity (they won't get it).

While we can debate the merits of candidates and the piss poor decision of the pre Ed leadership to piss around for ages doing nothing, the SNP dragon consumed pretty much everything.
Release the Guardvarks.
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Re: Friday 8th May 2015

Post by Willow904 »

PorFavor wrote:I'm at a complete loss at the moment to come up with what we should be fighting to replace this lot with. Replace them we must and as quickly as possible. But what (mainly) or who do we get behind in order to do it? I don't want to live in a medieval theme-park but I feel rudderless. At times like these I think I get the point of "The Prisoner". A bit like I do with calculus and cricket. But I can't pin it down for very long.

Sorry if I'm not making sense. But I think we lost the "what" along with the "who" today.
I guess we wait for "events". They're bound to come along and Cameron is bound to be on the wrong side of them. It wasn't the Tory party that defeated Labour, it was the Iraq War and the global financial crisis. In some ways Cameron got lucky, he had Merkel and Hollande to deal with Putin, but he'll have to deal with something that cant be solved with a few lies in the sycophantic press eventually and then we'll see what he's really made of.
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Re: Friday 8th May 2015

Post by yahyah »

Maybe know we can understand why Ed was so vehement about no deals with the SNP.
The very idea was toxic to a mass of voters.
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Re: Friday 8th May 2015

Post by letsskiptotheleft »

yahyah wrote:Maybe know we can understand why Ed was so vehement about no deals with the SNP.
The very idea was toxic to a mass of voters.

And yet it didn't matter how many times Miliband said there would be no coalition both Sturgeon and the Tories kept bringing it up, knowing uncertainty and opposition to a deal went down like a sack of shite in England. It suited both sides to put doubt into voters minds.

A pincer movement you could say, if I was a cynic I would say it was almost organised.
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LadyCentauria
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Re: Friday 8th May 2015

Post by LadyCentauria »

Missed this cartoon that Steve Bell posted last night:
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfre ... ch-cartoon
Image
This time, I'm gonna be stronger I'm not giving in...
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Willow904
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Re: Friday 8th May 2015

Post by Willow904 »

yahyah wrote:Maybe know we can understand why Ed was so vehement about no deals with the SNP.
The very idea was toxic to a mass of voters.
With EVEL, the Tories are turning into an English nationalist party, so voters have run in fear from one nationalist party into the arms of another.
Cameron has already said he'll be a one nation leader, so I think we can safely say that's the end of the union, then.
"Fall seven times, get up eight" - Japanese proverb
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tinyclanger2
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Re: Friday 8th May 2015

Post by tinyclanger2 »

letsskiptotheleft wrote:
yahyah wrote:Maybe know we can understand why Ed was so vehement about no deals with the SNP.
The very idea was toxic to a mass of voters.

And yet it didn't matter how many times Miliband said there would be no coalition both Sturgeon and the Tories kept bringing it up, knowing uncertainty and opposition to a deal went down like a sack of shite in England. It suited both sides to put doubt into voters minds.

A pincer movement you could say, if I was a cynic I would say it was almost organised.
I have to say there is a strong strand of the cynic in me.
LET'S FACE IT I'M JUST 'KIN' SEETHIN'
PorFavor
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Re: Friday 8th May 2015

Post by PorFavor »

Thanks x 31.
Repeat when necessary.

(I think I got the number right).
letsskiptotheleft
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Re: Friday 8th May 2015

Post by letsskiptotheleft »

I wish in hindsight Scotland had gone last September, it certainly wouldn't that've been any worse last night. Continually bleating what a rotten deal they have had. So has virtually every region.
yahyah
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Re: Friday 8th May 2015

Post by yahyah »

letsskiptotheleft wrote:
yahyah wrote:Maybe know we can understand why Ed was so vehement about no deals with the SNP.
The very idea was toxic to a mass of voters.

And yet it didn't matter how many times Miliband said there would be no coalition both Sturgeon and the Tories kept bringing it up, knowing uncertainty and opposition to a deal went down like a sack of shite in England. It suited both sides to put doubt into voters minds.

A pincer movement you could say, if I was a cynic I would say it was almost organised.
All helped by the kind Uncle Rupert.
yahyah
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Re: Friday 8th May 2015

Post by yahyah »

letsskiptotheleft wrote:I wish in hindsight Scotland had gone last September, it certainly wouldn't that've been any worse last night. Continually bleating what a rotten deal they have had. So has virtually every region.
And we wouldn't have had to listen to Sturgeon whining 'the Voice of Scotland' ten million times.
She'd have been forced to whinge to herself.
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