AnatolyKasparov wrote:Its just four weeks - four weeks! - ago from now that we were all nervously, but eagerly, waiting for 10 PM and the exit poll.
Encouraged by all those reports of huge turnouts, if nothing else......
Had a glance at Wintour's piece today - I could pick holes in it as many others could and in some cases have, but the thing that struck me was that Ed's team and party HQ seemed to have no idea what was coming and remained cautiously optimistic even with an hour or two of polling to go. Some have said elsewhere that they started to get "bad vibes" a few days out from the election (as in 1992) but the fact the final polls showed a slight move *to* Labour (unlike then) reassured them.
Worth remembering that even Crosby was "only" citing about 300 Tory seats on polling day - and that was widely considered (by some Tories, too) as wildly optimistic......
Still not totally sure what the hell happened
Stuff like the following isn't exactly reassuring, which makes it harder to move on in some ways:
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/i- ... ry-5703584" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
'I know I voted for me': Angry socialist who got NO votes at General Election demands recount
It's basically very sloppy which makes me wonder how many other counts were equally sloppy. Mislaying all a candidates votes is a concern.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article ... litch.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
The chaos in east London comes as fears of an alleged postal voting scam were raised in the key marginal seat of Milton Keynes today after the expected four ballot boxes of pre-cast votes turned into a staggering 18 BOXES.
The surprise number of ballot boxes, which are counted in advance of the main count, contained 4,600 voting papers, many more than the usual number of postal votes cast in the area.
There has been no official figures for postal votes issued and postal votes returned. Why?
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/201 ... ves-london" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Vehicle containing blank election ballot papers destined for polls in Eastbourne as well as Hastings and Rye has been stolen in London, say police
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/201 ... ournemouth" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Dozens queue to complain in Hackney, wrong ballot papers issued in two wards of Bournemouth, and some expats say forms arrived too late
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-26520836" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Mr Mawrey, a deputy High Court judge and election commissioner, said in one case last year he had come across 14 different ways that postal ballots could be manipulated.
"Postal voting on demand, however many safeguards you build into it, is wide open to fraud," he told Radio 4's Today.
"And it's open to fraud on a scale that will make election rigging a possibility and indeed in some areas a probability."
Of course, if all the above are too conspiracy-theory for you, there's always the much more likely rigging of the polls to make them appear as close as possible so those on the left, complacent they'd get an Ed Miliband led coalition whatever happened, didn't bother to turn out to support Labour, while those on the right, worried about the closeness of the polls, were encouraged out to vote Tory. The close polls almost certainly influenced Tories who had flirted with Ukip at any rate.
One way or another, analysis of exactly what happened on election night has been very thin on the ground, hasn't it? Quite apart from anything else, I've seen very little retrospective discussion of just how the SNP motivated tens of thousands of new voters to turn out and vote for them, an impressive trick that you would normally expect to occupy political pundits for days. The idea being bandied around was that they hammered Labour, but the transfer of votes wasn't quite an annihilation - without all those extra, virgin voters, it would have been considerably closer. There's a registration/political engagement story related to the referendum that is being ignored by the English press and I just can't fathom why, because from an objective, academic point of view it's fascinating.
I guess it's the swiftness with which the press put the election behind them which has surprised me most. It seemed to be over before I even got up at 6.00am on 8th May - move along, no more to see here, Miliband's gone, Clegg's gone, Farage's (not) gone, move along, it's all over, all hail the Tory majority, no looking behind you, no election stats to pore over, job done. It's a bit surreal somehow and I don't really know why.