Wednesday 25th November 2015

[HindleA]

I hope attention is paid to making a more effective vaccine to deal with a particularly determined virus.

[ohsocynical]

BBC Breaking News ‏@BBCBreaking 40m40 minutes ago
There were estimated 43,900 excess deaths in England and Wales last winter, highest number since 1999, figures show http://bbc.in/1Ia3dGp

Strike me like a bolt out of the blue - I wasn't expecting this - the ONS always cautioned me to remember that cold temperatures aren't the sole or perhaps even primary cause of excess winter deaths.
I'm stunned at this news.
I've only looked at the main points thus far but I've linked the ONS research released today below.

"Respiratory diseases were the underlying cause of death in more than a third of all excess winter deaths in 2014/15."

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/subnation ... b-ewm.html

Pollution.

Yes. I hadn't thought of that.

[ephemerid]

By the way - whoever RebeccaRiotsXV3 on the G politics blog is - it isn't me.

Hugo?

[AnatolyKasparov]

Seriously, if it is SH he needs to take a proper look at himself. Impersonating others on forums is genuinely not cool.

[RogerOThornhill]

Can't believe that Osborne came out with that "no money left" letter again. And got the wording wrong.

[StephenDolan]

There was no money left. Sigh.

[RogerOThornhill]

I really don't understand how they can do this.

Osborne says housing associations have been brought onto the public balance sheet.

That statistical change will be backdated to 2008.

The OBR has produced new forecasts.

Debt was meant to be 83.6% this year, he says. On the new measure, it is 82.5%, he says.

Why 2008 for a start, and why should it be backdated?

[StephenDolan]

Why Osborne u turn is bad for Corbyn. So say Allegra Stratton and Jonathan Freedland.

[yahyah]

And it wasn't classed as a particularly severe winter or so I understand.
It has to be because of fuel costs. Nothing's changed on that front has it?

They are saying a major factor was the flu virus and a less effective vaccine.

& cutting the budget for public service ads to remind at risk groups to go for their (even less than effective) vaccine ?

When I was still working, over ten years ago, our practice, and others in Gloucestershire sent letters to pensioners inviting them for their vaccinations. Are they still doing so now ?

[yahyah]

Can't believe that Osborne came out with that "no money left" letter again. And got the wording wrong.

Really? They're still pushing that?

The 'magic money tree' seems alive and blooming for Tory pet projects though.

[HindleA]

Big victory for Osborne by breaching his own cap and reversing policy to outflank Labour,or something like that.

[PorFavor]

Would the backdating to 2008 (Housing Associations on balance sheet) now make a theoretical difference to the figures for the last Labour Government?

And allowing the flogging off of Local Authority assets to allow them to spend the proceeds on day-to-day needs - a quick fix and rather short sighted, surely?

[yahyah]

Here it comes again. The party for hard working people.

[youtube]nfwJ387cs00[/youtube]

Thanks for posting that Toby.

I played it to my husband and he says he first heard the song about 1966 in a pub in Halifax at a folk evening. His father was a skilled weaver, so it has resonance for him.

Will be looking up more Chumbawumba as they did a version of an Italian partisan song, and that's an area that I am spending time researching, socialist songs of Italy.

[TheGrimSqueaker]

Big victory for Osborne by breaching his own cap and reversing policy to outflank Labour,or something like that.

Apparently Gideon doing so many u-turns he is in danger of screwing himself into the ground is bad news for Labour, and has shot all of McDonnell's foxes.

[AnatolyKasparov]

Whatever he said today, the chatterati were going to proclaim Gidiot a genius. Its what they do

[yahyah]

Oh So ....did you mean to thank the stalker ? Presume Rusty's link is not good news for the NHS.

[StephenDolan]

Local government, sell all your assets, you'll be quids in.

This is such a fantastic idea he'll be banning BTL landlords, it's for their own good, making them lots of cash that they can spend spend spend!

[ephemerid]

I really don't understand how they can do this.

Osborne says housing associations have been brought onto the public balance sheet.

That statistical change will be backdated to 2008.

The OBR has produced new forecasts.

Debt was meant to be 83.6% this year, he says. On the new measure, it is 82.5%, he says.

Why 2008 for a start, and why should it be backdated?

"How to re-write history" 101, Roger.

HAs have now been in the public sector for 7 years.
They weren't in the public sector in any of the previous 7 years but now they have been.
HAs generated economic activity outside the public sector but now that activity has been recorded as in the public sector.
Therefore, all that activity counts towards public sector spending/borrowing during the past 7 years.
Thus profits made can now be used to make debts look better.

Additionally, all new 7 year backdated public sector housing can be "gifted" by IDS to benefit scroungers. This is very very fair indeed.

I know that you understand this, Roger.

So, all public schools AKA charities will be subject to the 7 year backdating rules.
Eton and Harrow will have been in the public sector for 7 years.
The Hoi Polloi will accept this as they are public schools.
So excellent schools in the private sector which are public really will become public schools in the public sector, thus really really public.

Obviously.

Next - all public sector services eg. health care, social care, education, and justice, which have really really been in the public sector for 70 years which is obviously far too long will now be in the private sector. Backdated for 70 years.

Go on. Act surprised....

[HindleA]

Two seconds on decimating income of the unstated sick/disabled

[yahyah]

Is he raising stamp duty on second homes and buy to lets ?

[TobyLatimer]

Same conditionality ?

May as well scrap WCA & sack Maximus then

ScreenShot01104.jpg (36.67 KiB) Viewed 6596 times

[PorFavor]

Local government, sell all your assets, you'll be quids in.

This is such a fantastic idea he'll be banning BTL landlords, it's for their own good, making them lots of cash that they can spend spend spend!

Yes - I was thinking "spend, spend, spend", too. Viv Nicholson, wasn't it?

[RogerOThornhill]

The devil really must be in the detail...lots of goodies, no cuts to the police or FCO.

So where has he got the money from?

[HindleA]

https://www.gov.uk/government/topical-e ... eview-2015" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;.



Here soon.

[PorFavor]

Am I the only one here who is relieved that it's John McDonnell to make the response?

[AnatolyKasparov]

Am I the only one here who is relieved that it's John McDonnell to make the response?

Rather than Jez, you mean?

I can see why you say that, but just imagine if it was his predecessor as SC - Chris Leslie - here now. And shudder.

[yahyah]

McDonnell on BBC now

[yahyah]

Tories sneering.

[PorFavor]

Am I the only one here who is relieved that it's John McDonnell to make the response?

Rather than Jez, you mean?

Yes - that is what I mean.

[yahyah]

Mmm...you may have a point PF.

[yahyah]

Harry ColeVerified account ‏@MrHarryCole 4m4 minutes ago
John McDonnell has now thrown his copy of Mao's red book across the table at Osborne. Extraordinarily bad prop and "joke" fell very flat.


He didn't seem to be watching what the BBC were showing.
Even the Speaker seemed amused.

[Maeght]

By the way - whoever RebeccaRiotsXV3 on the G politics blog is - it isn't me.

I worked that out very quickly. That Rebecca uses a lot of "bad" language and you don't.

[refitman]

From Sparrow's blog:

John McDonnell's response to Osborne

John McDonnell, the shadow chancellor, is responding to George Osborne now. Having to respond to statements of this kind is the hardest task any parliamentarian ever has to undertake (because the opposition gets no advance warning of what is in these statements) and no one ever really triumphs in this role.

McDonnell started by taunting Osborne for the fact that he failed completely to cut the deficit in one parliament as he promised in 2010. McDonnell’s argument was sound, although his attempt to lecture the Tories on deficit reduction and economic credibility prompted laughing from the government benches.

McDonnell is going through cuts in the announcement now. He says that he Department for Business is almost being closed down, and that the solar energy industry is being killed off.

He says he never expected to be outdone in nationalisation by Osborne. He says he, McDonnell, wants to nationalise rail. But Osborne wants to sell British assets to Chinese state companies.

McDonnell brandishes a copy of Mao’s Little Red Book, and he quotes from it: “We must learn to do economic work from all, no matter who they are.” He thought this advice would come in handy for Osborne, McDonnell says.

He says this is not an economic plan but a political fix.

[citizenJA]

Respiratory disease is a leading cause of death in England and Wales...
it also has the largest seasonal effect of all of the causes...

In 2014/15, 78% more people died from respiratory diseases in the winter,
compared with the non-winter period. Pneumonia accounted for the largest
proportion of these deaths.

This is significantly higher than in 2013/14, when there were 30% more
respiratory disease deaths in the winter compared with the non-winter period.

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/subnation ... e-of-death

In England and Wales, respiratory disease is the leading cause of death 365 days of the year.

Levels of influenza in 2014/15 were higher than recent years, as were peak
intensive care numbers, but were lower than 2010/11 which saw very high
levels of influenza...[but not mortality rates - Excess Winter Mortality
was higher in 2014/15 than in 2010/11]

...the influenza vaccine in 2010/11 was around 50% effective, compared
with the 34% effectiveness in 2014/15.

...the predominant influenza virus in winter 2014/15 was influenza A(H3N2).
This strain of flu had a particularly noticeable effect on the elderly, resulting
in numerous care-home outbreaks and far higher levels of excess mortality
than the last notable H3N2 season of 2008/09.

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/subnation ... enza-rates

[refitman]

@PK - if you have something to say, say it to our faces, don't snipe on twitter.

[Willow904]

John McDonnell was good.

Much of his response was in an article he wrote for the Guardian yesterday. It was simple and effective.

He was, for want of a better word, very 'peppy' in his response. He gave Labour supporters something to cheer and exuded a sense of having the upper hand on Osborne purely by appearing to be really rather enjoying himself. Providing a little theatre is no bad thing and McDonnell certainly knows how to entertain. I'm very curious to learn how he's gone down with the public at large. Voters seem to rather favour the 'characters' and McDonnell is certainly quite the character!

[TechnicalEphemera]

Seriously, if it is SH he needs to take a proper look at himself. Impersonating others on forums is genuinely not cool.

Definitely not.

The levels of panic and hysteria among the 'Corbyn must die!' set are reaching epic proportions. I expect there will be no level to which some will not stoop. It's going to make the sniping at Miliband look cuddly.

If only any of that were true.

In general there is absolutely no need to invent stuff to attack Corbyn with. The panic is merely from those desperate to avoid a crushing Tory majority in 2020. This is quite different from Miliband where the establishment genuinely feared he might become PM.

[refitman]

Seriously, if it is SH he needs to take a proper look at himself. Impersonating others on forums is genuinely not cool.

Definitely not.

The levels of panic and hysteria among the 'Corbyn must die!' set are reaching epic proportions. I expect there will be no level to which some will not stoop. It's going to make the sniping at Miliband look cuddly.

If only any of that were true.

In general there is absolutely no need to invent stuff to attack Corbyn with. The panic is merely from those desperate to avoid a crushing Tory majority in 2020. This is quite different from Miliband where the establishment genuinely feared he might become PM.

In general there is absolutely no need to invent stuff to attack Corbyn with

So why all the fuss about singing/not singing/bowing/kneeling?

[StephenDolan]

Seriously, if it is SH he needs to take a proper look at himself. Impersonating others on forums is genuinely not cool.

Definitely not.

The levels of panic and hysteria among the 'Corbyn must die!' set are reaching epic proportions. I expect there will be no level to which some will not stoop. It's going to make the sniping at Miliband look cuddly.

If only any of that were true.

In general there is absolutely no need to invent stuff to attack Corbyn with. The panic is merely from those desperate to avoid a crushing Tory majority in 2020. This is quite different from Miliband where the establishment genuinely feared he might become PM.

And the way to avoid a crushing Tory majority is how? Please outline the steps involved.

[TechnicalEphemera]

John McDonnell was good.

Much of his response was in an article he wrote for the Guardian yesterday. It was simple and effective.

He was, for want of a better word, very 'peppy' in his response. He gave Labour supporters something to cheer and exuded a sense of having the upper hand on Osborne purely by appearing to be really rather enjoying himself. Providing a little theatre is no bad thing and McDonnell certainly knows how to entertain. I'm very curious to learn how he's gone down with the public at large. Voters seem to rather favour the 'characters' and McDonnell is certainly quite the character!

I am not sure if his response was good or bad, seemed rather thin to me. However realistically what else was he going to say. Cooper might have done better but she has years of experience behind her.

As with all Osborne statements this will unravel in due course, at which point McDonnell will have an opportunity.

However in general McDonnell is a bit of a surprise, quite an efficient politician that Labour really should have found some sort of role for.

[citizenJA]

Apologies, RR2, for replicating your ONS Excess Winter Deaths (EWDs) link!

[TechnicalEphemera]

Definitely not.

The levels of panic and hysteria among the 'Corbyn must die!' set are reaching epic proportions. I expect there will be no level to which some will not stoop. It's going to make the sniping at Miliband look cuddly.

If only any of that were true.

In general there is absolutely no need to invent stuff to attack Corbyn with. The panic is merely from those desperate to avoid a crushing Tory majority in 2020. This is quite different from Miliband where the establishment genuinely feared he might become PM.

And the way to avoid a crushing Tory majority is how? Please outline the steps involved.

1. Get a sensible policy platform that is popular with the majority of the country (not a few hundred thousand party members).
2. Put in place a competent and electable team to campaign on that policy platform.
3. Aggressively oppose the government and hope circumstances and incompetence means they annoy enough people to get a shot at power.
4. Retain political credibility on the economy, defence and leadership so people will take a risk with their vote.

Miliband wasn't a million miles away in 2015, he fell on circumstances and the fact the government was still seen as broadly competent. His policy platform was broadly popular but the leadership stuff hurt him a bit especially combined with the SNP.

[citizenJA]

Am I the only one here who is relieved that it's John McDonnell to make the response?

Rather than Jez, you mean?

Yes - that is what I mean.

I think John McDonnell wonderful in his job.

[StephenDolan]

If only any of that were true.

In general there is absolutely no need to invent stuff to attack Corbyn with. The panic is merely from those desperate to avoid a crushing Tory majority in 2020. This is quite different from Miliband where the establishment genuinely feared he might become PM.

And the way to avoid a crushing Tory majority is how? Please outline the steps involved.

1. Get a sensible policy platform that is popular with the majority of the country (not a few hundred thousand party members).
2. Put in place a competent and electable team to campaign on that policy platform.
3. Aggressively oppose the government and hope circumstances and incompetence means they annoy enough people to get a shot at power.
4. Retain political credibility on the economy, defence and leadership so people will take a risk with their vote.

Miliband wasn't a million miles away in 2015, he fell on circumstances and the fact the government was still seen as broadly competent. His policy platform was broadly popular but the leadership stuff hurt him a bit especially combined with the SNP.

Point 2.
Who, when and how?

[pk1]

..

[TheGrimSqueaker]

And the way to avoid a crushing Tory majority is how? Please outline the steps involved.

1. Get a sensible policy platform that is popular with the majority of the country (not a few hundred thousand party members).
2. Put in place a competent and electable team to campaign on that policy platform.
3. Aggressively oppose the government and hope circumstances and incompetence means they annoy enough people to get a shot at power.
4. Retain political credibility on the economy, defence and leadership so people will take a risk with their vote.

Miliband wasn't a million miles away in 2015, he fell on circumstances and the fact the government was still seen as broadly competent. His policy platform was broadly popular but the leadership stuff hurt him a bit especially combined with the SNP.

Point 2.
Who, when and how?

Not Diane Abbott, ever.

Corbyn has made some good appointments. I think McDonnell was a good choice (although he may have done himself massive damage with the Little Red Book stunt today); Hilary Benn seems to be doing a decent job as Foreign Secretary; Burnham forced a U-turn on the police cuts, so I think it is a given that he is doing ok; Alexander, Powell, Smith and Berger are all starting to do decent work in their briefs; but Diane Abbott is a massive liability and Maria Eagle is just not the right person for Defence (which is a surprise, because she was decent enough at Transport & Defra). And my views on Tom Watson are known here; he seems to have gone invisible, maybe JC should check what he is up to!! :-p

[Rebecca]

@PK - if you have something to say, say it to our faces, don't snipe on twitter.

No problem !

Here's exactly what I said & I stand by every word ! btw, don't think it's your place to order others what to do, is it ??

kathy ‏@kb32904 17m17 minutes ago
Posters at @FlythenestHaven think @SpinningHugo behind clone RR2 account without observing that Hugo *rarely*uses bad language. #factsmatter

You all know Hugo's posting style & he seldom ever uses/used bad language so perhaps acknowledge that this place probably has generated more than a few malcontents since it's birth & before any of you think it must be me, you'd be utterly wrong to think so !

So long.

Blimey PK,whatever is wrong with you?Seriously.
Obviously,you are very unhappy with the ftn community,well,fair enough.
But what do you possibly gain from lurking here?Then dashing in for a nasty little swipe,then off again.
Wouldn't a cup of tea and a biscuit be more fun?
It would be like me reading the Sun(Would rather chew my own arms off)in order to bitch about it later.What's the point?
Nobody suggested that you were spoofing rebecca riots,what's with the ego?

[HindleA]

Dear Osborne and associated patronising barely human beings.You have a skewed view of your own imaginations.As much as the "vulnerable"(ie those you deliberately made so ,to prove you right)are grateful for a two second non mention of "support" in lieu of adequate,cost saving income to attend to assessed sickness/disability needs.;conditional support,predicated on penalisation,first,ask questions later(100 a week visitations I believe was the McVey figure to ascertain whether the penalisation should stand),it would be more honest(I understand your difficulty with such a concept)to outline that you are to lop off a third off the income of the sick/disabled.Inveterate deceitful coward that you are you avoided that.Nor indeed the parents of pre school children,regardless of situation,similarly conditionally supported with,as yet,non agreed or indeed adequately evident in any way,childcare.1.3 million is your figure,are there any others,that we should know about?

[citizenJA]

And it wasn't classed as a particularly severe winter or so I understand.
It has to be because of fuel costs. Nothing's changed on that front has it?

They are saying a major factor was the flu virus and a less effective vaccine.

I was told at the time by someone from PHE that there was an error with the creation of one version of the vaccine, and that in some circumstances this could actually give people flu - but I was absolutely not to tell anyone this as it was still overall safer for people to have the vaccine than not. I don't know if this is true - it certainly seems to be the case that there were strains missed. This is a bit of an occupational hazard - the drug companies, WHO etc have to guess which strains will be prevalent in any given winter and include those particular cells into the vaccines for that season, and by the law of averages sometimes they will guess wrong or a strain will have mutated. But it's something to keep an eye on to see if it happens again.

Yes, RobertSnozers, that's what I read about the vaccine some months ago - many apologies for not having the information at hand. I remember the transparency and candour from the organisations involved reassuring and credible. It wasn't something that could be fixed, it wasn't a matter of someone fouling up, it was, like you wrote, an occupational hazard. It was found out too late to make another vaccine the virus strain the vaccine was up against rendered the vaccine less effective.

[rebeccariots2]

Sarah Wollaston MP ‏@sarahwollaston 21m21 minutes ago
Pleased to hear from Prime Minister that Govt have agreed to ACAS conciliation. I hope @TheBMA will now suspend strike action

So ... looks like they've realised they can't allow Hunt to carry on as he is and completely **** things up.

Yet another climb down.