Thursday 23rd February 2017

[Tubby Isaacs]

Britain Elects‏@britainelects 29m
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ITV reports the Tories are confident of gaining Copeland and that Labour are hoping to edge Stoke Central.

Shit.

[adam]

Britain Elects‏@britainelects 29m
More
ITV reports the Tories are confident of gaining Copeland and that Labour are hoping to edge Stoke Central.

Shit.

They might be right, but at this time in oldham the reports were that UKIP were going to push Labour right to the line, and instead Labour increased their majority comfortably. They might be right, but it's worth waiting to see. Although perhaps not until 3am.

[adam]

The conservatives winning in Copeland would indeed be a historically poor result, but UKIP failing to win in Stoke would be a first order catastrophe for them. They could hardly have cherry picked a better by election to have a run at, they have their biggest current name running... and we don't know what's happened, but if they fail to win it really should shake them to their foundations. Edited to add -but I somehow suspect that this will not be how the story runs.

Odds on Farage back in charge of his one man band before Easter?

[RogerOThornhill]

Bloke on another board predicts Nuttall will come fourth in the two horse race in Stoke because Brexit pensioners won't walk too war in bad weather for a liar like him.

Here's hoping.

Said right from when he was being touted as a candidate that it was a really, really bad idea - losing badly when you're the leader is not a good look at all. Might well prompt a call for Nigel to return (not that he's any better at winning a seat though).

[PorFavor]

The conservatives winning in Copeland would indeed be a historically poor result, but UKIP failing to win in Stoke would be a first order catastrophe for them. They could hardly have cherry picked a better by election to have a run at, they have their biggest current name running... and we don't know what's happened, but if they fail to win it really should shake them to their foundations.

Odds on Farage back in charge of his one man band before Easter?

Yes - he can just as easily commute from the US as he did from Brussels.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Does Farage need UKIP for his transatlantic media career? May is basically reading his old script. He can sit on her shoulder.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Bloke on another board predicts Nuttall will come fourth in the two horse race in Stoke because Brexit pensioners won't walk too war in bad weather for a liar like him.

Here's hoping.

Said right from when he was being touted as a candidate that it was a really, really bad idea - losing badly when you're the leader is not a good look at all. Might well prompt a call for Nigel to return (not that he's any better at winning a seat though).

They might have been thinking that Farage missed opportunities at Eastleigh and Haywood and Middleton, and not to make that mistake.

Nuttall just isn't up to it, full stop.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Britain Elects‏@britainelects 6m6 minutes ago
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Barton (Kettering) result:
LDEM: 57.0% (+57.0)
CON: 29.8% (-19.3)
UKIP: 9.4% (-14.1)
GRN: 3.7% (-3.5)
No Labour unlike previous.

Wow.

No Labour candidate in Chigwell, Epping Forest either.

That's pretty bad. Party politics is in the news before Parliamentary by-elections. You think they could get someone up.

[PorFavor]

Got to go (back) to bed.

Night night.

[Tubby Isaacs]

The Lib Dem candidate in Copeland is Rebecca Hanson. She posts on the Local Schools Network. I'm impressed.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Yeah, and he can tantalize his UK fans with talk of a return sometimes.

[RogerOThornhill]

Liz McInnesVerified account‏@LizMcInnesMP 34m34 minutes ago
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"Stoke is not one of our target seats" @DouglasCarswell Hmmm. So casual they were about it, they put their leader up as candidate...#bbcqt

[Tubby Isaacs]

Charterlands (South Hams) result:
LDEM: 46.1% (+46.1)
CON: 39.3% (-25.0)
LAB: 10.7% (+10.7)
GRN: 3.9% (-15.6)
No Ind unlike previous.

[Tubby Isaacs]

(((Dan Hodges)))Verified account
‏@DPJHodges
Labour source re-Copeland: "Early samples look like we will win".

Apol for source.

[RogerOThornhill]

Dear oh dear...

Laura McInerneyVerified account‏@miss_mcinerney 4m4 minutes ago
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"I think grammar schools should be for everybody" says an audience member who appears not to know what a grammar school is #bbcqt

I think that makes them a comprehensive...

[Tubby Isaacs]

Liz McInnesVerified account‏@LizMcInnesMP 34m34 minutes ago
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"Stoke is not one of our target seats" @DouglasCarswell Hmmm. So casual they were about it, they put their leader up as candidate...#bbcqt

So it's Thanet and... Anybody? Bueller?

Thurrock?

[Temulkar]

Turned over from QT when Greening started speaking about education, turn back ten mins later and she is still talking, has she just been allowed a speech?

[HindleA]

Screech

[adam]

Dear oh dear...

Laura McInerneyVerified account‏@miss_mcinerney 4m4 minutes ago
More
"I think grammar schools should be for everybody" says an audience member who appears not to know what a grammar school is #bbcqt

I think that makes them a comprehensive...

They should be for everybody, and everybody should be above average.

[RogerOThornhill]

Britain Elects‏@britainelects 4m4 minutes ago
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Stoke on Trent Central turnout:
38.2% (21,220 votes)

Not bad for a fairly vile day for an election...I can imagine a lot thinking "sod it - not going out especially to vote".

[RogerOThornhill]

Right, that's me done - early into school tomorrow.

[HindleA]

Latest Excess death figures


https://www.gov.uk/government/statistic ... rveillance" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[HindleA]

https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/arti ... ngs-on-jet" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;


Air Force Stumped by Trump's Claim of $1 Billion Savings on Jet

[HindleA]

Apparently Hammond doing something about social care,sadly far too late for some.

[HindleA]

Postal vote in Stoke pretty evenly spread,despite my six.
.

[HindleA]

Presuming Nuttall knows where he is,he would have learnt Fenton is one of the six.

[HindleA]

Here are the results.

Paul Nuttall - Ukip - 5,233

Gareth Snell - Labour - 7,853

Jack Brereton - Conservative - 5,154

Zulfiqar Ali - Liberal Democrat - 2,083

Adam Colclough - Green - 294

Mohammad Akram - Independent - 56

The Incredible Flying Brick - Monster Raving Loony - 127

Godfrey Davies - Christian Peoples - 109

Barbara Fielding - Independent - 137

David Furness - BNP - 124

[HindleA]

Pleased for cja and partner who worked their socks off.

[HindleA]

I knew the Tory candidate's name,Hancock didn't,should I be worried?

[HindleA]

http://press.labour.org.uk/post/1576341 ... nt-central" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;


Labour Press
Gareth Snell speech at Stoke-on-Trent Central by-election

[HindleA]

Gareth Snell (Lab) 7,853 (37.09%, -2.22%)
Paul Nuttall (Ukip) 5,233 (24.72%, +2.07%)
Jack Brereton (C) 5,154 (24.35%, +1.80%)
Zulfiqar Ali (LD) 2,083 (9.84%, +5.67%)
Adam Colclough (Green) 294 (1.39%, -2.22%)
Barbara Fielding (Ind) 137 (0.65%)
The Incredible Flying Brick (Loony) 127 (0.60%)
David Furness (BNP) 124 (0.59%)
Godfrey Davies (CPA) 109 (0.51%)
Mohammed Akram (Ind) 56 (0.26%)

Lab maj 2,620 (12.38%)
2.14% swing Lab to Ukip

[HindleA]

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... byelection" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[HindleA]

Copeland, result:
CON: 44.3% (+8.5)
LAB: 37.3% (-4.9)
LDEM: 7.2% (+3.8)
UKIP: 6.5% (-9.0)
IND: 2.6% (+2.6)
GRN: 1.7% (-1.3)

[HindleA]

Copeland By-election

Labour: 11601
Tories: 13748
UKIP: 2025
LD: 2552

[seeingclearly]

Copeland results look pretty clear, Conservative gains from ukip, and Libdem gains from Labour..... oh well, nothing that new then. But they will tar stoke with it anyway, and Labour itself.