Tuesday 28th February 2017

[Willow904]

@RobertSnozers

Finally, I disagree with your assertion that the only alternative to full single market membership is the hardest of hard Brexits - I suspect Hugo may have led you up the garden path here with his constant mantra that talking about 'access' to the single market is meaningless. Of course it isn't, that's what trade deals are for, and furthermore Britain is in a different position having been a member which will enable it to negotiate a much closer relationship than other countries can.

I'm basing this assumption on what those we will be negotiating with in the EU have been saying about no pick 'n' mix deals.

Tusk tells May she will not be allowed to adopt a pick and mix approach to the Brexit negotiations. By that he appears to mean that Britain will not be allowed to keep the advantages of single market membership while rejecting free movement. (Tusk used the phrase “pick and choose” but clearly meant “pick and mix”.) But the journalist Georg von Harrach thinks this is a hint that the EU will not accept the compromise on customs union membership.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/bl ... efb00f5504" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

I see no reason to think the ultimate negotiating position will be greatly different. It makes sense for them to stick together on the basics. And really, anything which takes us out of the EEA is a hard Brexit because we will be on our own having to negotiate lots of trade deals with lots of people in much stronger positions than ourselves. If you say that staying in the single market isn't leaving the EU, then to me it looks like there is no such thing as a "soft" Brexit.

[AngryAsWell]

Sussex Police
‏Verified account @sussex_police
From this Wed (March 1), you will receive a £200 fine & 6 penalty points if you use your mobile while driving

" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[Willow904]

@RobertSnozers

Finally, I disagree with your assertion that the only alternative to full single market membership is the hardest of hard Brexits - I suspect Hugo may have led you up the garden path here with his constant mantra that talking about 'access' to the single market is meaningless. Of course it isn't, that's what trade deals are for, and furthermore Britain is in a different position having been a member which will enable it to negotiate a much closer relationship than other countries can.

I'm basing this assumption on what those we will be negotiating with in the EU have been saying about no pick 'n' mix deals.

Tusk tells May she will not be allowed to adopt a pick and mix approach to the Brexit negotiations. By that he appears to mean that Britain will not be allowed to keep the advantages of single market membership while rejecting free movement. (Tusk used the phrase “pick and choose” but clearly meant “pick and mix”.) But the journalist Georg von Harrach thinks this is a hint that the EU will not accept the compromise on customs union membership.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/bl ... efb00f5504" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

I see no reason to think the ultimate negotiating position will be greatly different. It makes sense for them to stick together on the basics. And really, anything which takes us out of the EEA is a hard Brexit because we will be on our own having to negotiate lots of trade deals with lots of people in much stronger positions than ourselves. If you say that staying in the single market isn't leaving the EU, then to me it looks like there is no such thing as a "soft" Brexit.

(Pick and choose is an expression, isn't it?)

I took that to mean we can't just pick and choose the bits of the EU we like while discarding the bits we don't like. It is a negotiation, after all. But from the same speech, Tusk is not saying 'single market or nothing', he is saying 'cancel Brexit or nothing'. He is quoted as saying 'By leaving the European Union, Britain will by definition be choosing "hard Brexit"'. Which strongly suggests that no 'soft' option would be on the table at all, which is rather what I was saying earlier, and 'In my opinion, the only real alternative to a "hard Brexit" is no Brexit. Even if today hardly anyone believes in such a possibility.'

But there will be a negotiation on future relationship, and it will involve the level of access to the single market, even if it's a bilateral deal the same as any other country could strike. We won't be frozen out - that really would be a 'punishment beating' and would make no sense at all. I'm not one of those people who think the EU will bend over backwards, and I think they'll be very tough negotiators, but I think the view that it's either the hardest of hard Brexits or we stay in the EU is not realistic.

By that reasoning, when Labour voted alongside the Tories to invoke article 50, they were, indeed, endorsing May's hard Brexit. Which sort of suggests all the talk about the fight just beginning is baloney. It's nearly over. Anyone who thinks May will abandon a Brexit deal at the eleventh hour in two years time to her own party's cost and Labour's gain is being very optimistic in my opinion. Not to mention her majority actually appears to be growing at the present time. For me, the only option left is to continue to object to this folly and continue to fight it. Futile it may be, but I'm never going to agree with giving "the people" what they want, when what they want is going to hurt so many people.

[HindleA]

https://www.equalityhumanrights.com/en/ ... e-your-say" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;


Housing for disabled people: have your say


EHRC

[AngryAsWell]

George Osborne laying it on the line about Brexit
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39116895" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

I seriously think there will be a move against Mayham before we exit.

[AngryAsWell]

UK nuclear power stations 'could be forced to close' after Brexit
Leaving Euratom treaty will shut down nuclear industry if international safety agreements are not made in time, MPs told

https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... ter-brexit" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;


News like this won't help her hang on either

[gilsey]

George Osborne laying it on the line about Brexit
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39116895" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

I seriously think there will be a move against Mayham before we exit.

We'd get him instead?

[RogerOThornhill]

Re the sex ed in schools...utterly shambolic.

" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Freddie Whittaker‏ @FCDWhittaker 52s52 seconds ago
More
So the situation here is that ITV reported plan for sex education, government notified commons it would give written statement, and has not.

[gilsey]

On the point about whether we can negotiate trade deals alongside the exit deal, there is a clue in A50

A Member State which decides to withdraw shall notify the European Council of its intention. In the light of the guidelines provided by the European Council, the Union shall negotiate and conclude an agreement with that State, setting out the arrangements for its withdrawal, taking account of the framework for its future relationship with the Union.

Obviously, we won't know the framework unless we're talking about the future relationship at the same time as the withdrawal arrangements.
I've heard both from different EU people, referring to that point, or saying no negotiations before exit.
It's yet another uncertainty.

[AngryAsWell]

George Osborne laying it on the line about Brexit
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39116895" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

I seriously think there will be a move against Mayham before we exit.

We'd get him instead?

He's a moderate now - don't ya know?
Road to Damascus an all that. The brexiteers would be out in a flash, back to the backbenches.
But seriously, at least we would get a better brexit deal - and then get to vote the bugger out.
And NO I am not supporting him "at all", just pointing out that whilst every one is looking at Labours problems, Mayham could have a few problems of her own on the horizon if she keeps ignoring the so-called soft tories.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Johnson used his speech to make clear that the government did not see the referendum result as a green light for protectionism.

In the face of Osborne’s warning and calls by the US president, Donald Trump, for more protections, Johnson said his government was pro-trade and pro-globalisation.

So Stoke, Blaenau Gwent, Rotherham etc are really after more trade with China, India etc?

There's a very easy wedge to be driven between the Brexiters by a united and skilled Opposition. Problems are deeper than Corbyn, of course.

[RogerOThornhill]

Re the sex ed in schools...utterly shambolic.

" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Freddie Whittaker‏ @FCDWhittaker 52s52 seconds ago
More
So the situation here is that ITV reported plan for sex education, government notified commons it would give written statement, and has not.

Wait. Announced now. Written presumably.

[gilsey]

On the point about whether we can negotiate trade deals alongside the exit deal, there is a clue in A50

A Member State which decides to withdraw shall notify the European Council of its intention. In the light of the guidelines provided by the European Council, the Union shall negotiate and conclude an agreement with that State, setting out the arrangements for its withdrawal, taking account of the framework for its future relationship with the Union.

Obviously, we won't know the framework unless we're talking about the future relationship at the same time as the withdrawal arrangements.
I've heard both from different EU people, referring to that point, or saying no negotiations before exit.
It's yet another uncertainty.

I suspect we won't have enough negotiators of sufficient skill and experience to do both at once.

Agreed.

It's very relevant to this E50-60bn they're asking for, isn't it, if you were going to pay for ongoing single market access a la Norway, presumably the lump sum would be substantially discounted.

[gilsey]

On the subject of Osborne, who should have thought of the problems of brexit before he agreed with calling a referendum, can someone cleverer than me embed this graph?

" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[RogerOThornhill]

Oh, apparently not then? Previous info from Sian Griffiths (who is admittedly fairly useless)

Freddie Whittaker‏ @FCDWhittaker 5m5 minutes ago
More
SRE update: We're told written statement from Greening still expected, but looking unlikely today #sexeducation

[Tubby Isaacs]

Incompetence, or have some frothers blocked it?

[Tubby Isaacs]

Populist relaunch.

[HindleA]

Will be here/not here when made/not made



http://www.parliament.uk/business/publi ... tatements/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[HindleA]

http://www.mind.org.uk/information-supp ... LW9KHqnxpV" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;



MIND campaign re.PIP

[Tubby Isaacs]

The loss in Copeland was really serious. I don’t think some of the reasons put forward are compelling.

I’m very straightforward that if things don’t improve there is no prospect of us winning a general election.

It is a very bad result for the Labour party and we need to be honest about that.

A number of things came up, including the direction of travel of the Labour party, Labour’s ability to communicate and understand what people are saying to them and, of course, the leadership of the Labour Party and we all know that.

Keir Starmer. He's at least not taking us for fools, even if he didn't do very well over Brexit.

[HindleA]

Just an example as to importance of proper scrutiny/oversight

Ministerial Statement
Children & Social Work Bill

At the Commons Committee stage for the Children and Social Work Bill, I agreed to investigate whether there were any gaps in the legal aid eligibility for parents where the local authority was applying for an adoption placement order for their child.
My officials and officials from the Ministry of Justice have investigated this, and found that there are a very small group of parents who are at risk of having their child permanently removed via an adoption placement order, but who are not entitled to non-means and non-merits tested legal aid to challenge this decision in the courts. This is because the Regulations which define ‘parents’ (or those with ‘parental responsibilities’) say that free legal aid must be given for parents going through ‘care proceedings’. Most adoption placement order decisions are made within wider care proceedings. But a small number of adoption placement order applications are made on their own.
I have discussed these issues with Sir Oliver Heald QC MP, Minister of State, Ministry of Justice. The Ministry of Justice holds responsibility for the legal aid budget, and has agreed to make a change to the eligibility rules.
The change will ensure that all parents who are subject to any court proceedings which could result in their child being placed for adoption will now be entitled to non-means and non-merits tested legal aid, so that they can access appropriate legal representation in all cases.
These changes will come into effect later this year.

[HindleA]

Won't be comfortable listening but reminder of File on 4 prog re social care at 8pm.


http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b08g58fl" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[HindleA]

"Peers have defeated the government in a bid to stem the tide of pub closures. As the Press Association reports, the House of Lords backed by 278 votes to 188, a majority of 90, a move to require planning permission to be sought for a change of use or demolition of premises. Supporters of the amendment said this would enable local people to give their view on any proposed changes as part of the planning process. The vote to remove so-called permitted development rights from pubs came during the report stage of the neighbourhood planning bill"

[Tubby Isaacs]

On the subject of Osborne, who should have thought of the problems of brexit before he agreed with calling a referendum, can someone cleverer than me embed this graph?

" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Here you go.



Very important stuff. Shows they don't care about the deficit at all.

Note the £21bn for the raised personal allowance there. In the 2010 leaders debates, Cameron said it was a lovely idea,but we couldn't afford to raise the threshold even to £10,000.

[HindleA]

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/ec ... ays-brexit" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;


Why Philip Hammond's Budget headache will become Theresa May's Brexit nightmare

[Tubby Isaacs]

This is why politics is so much harder than it looks. Populist tax cuts are popular. Where's anybody going to get that £21bn from easily?

I don't at all think the new team in Labour had any appreciation of this sort of stuff.

[PorFavor]

"Peers have defeated the government in a bid to stem the tide of pub closures. As the Press Association reports, the House of Lords backed by 278 votes to 188, a majority of 90, a move to require planning permission to be sought for a change of use or demolition of premises. Supporters of the amendment said this would enable local people to give their view on any proposed changes as part of the planning process. The vote to remove so-called permitted development rights from pubs came during the report stage of the neighbourhood planning bill"

I think that's quite an important development, culturally. Thanks for the information.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Matt Whittaker‏ @MattWhittakerRF 11h11 hours ago
More
Looking further forward, independent forecast changes imply a potential £29bn reduction in next week's borrowing forecast relative to AS16

Of course this a revision from crap to merely bad, but it'll provide some space for Hammond on business rates.

[HindleA]

Nearby MP is chairman of APPG on pubs.

[AngryAsWell]

Won't be comfortable listening but reminder of File on 4 prog re social care at 8pm.


http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b08g58fl" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Oh heavens - this is horrible, I don't know what I would have done if this were my parents (lucky I was able to care for them myself) but god, I'd probably be locked up.

[PorFavor]

French police officer accidentally fires gun during Hollande speech

The safety catch on the officer’s rifle was reportedly off and the shot was fired when he tripped while adjusting his position. The bullet pierced the marquee roof, hitting a waiter in the leg and a railway employee in the foot, according to Pierre N’Gahane, state prefect of the Charente region.
(Guardian)

That's not funny. No, really.

(Hope the injured are ok.)

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/ ... nde-speech

[Tubby Isaacs]

Always money for pet policies. Raising inheritance tax threshold.

https://www.theguardian.com/money/2017/ ... uth-divide" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Graham Brady, whose Altrincham and Sale constituency is in the top 100, argued that inheritance tax was unfair, particularly in areas with high property values.

“People have been taxed on their income, and they should not face penal tax charges when they leave something to their children,” he said. “It is worth saying that the lesson of recent decades is that, if this tax was left unreformed more and more families around the country would be sucked into it when it was originally intended for the very wealthiest.”

I can't abide this stuff. They haven't been taxed on the unearned gain, have they?

Spending's gone up. Some taxes do. Tough shit.

[PorFavor]

Ok. I edited my last post to remove the "Advertisement" header thingy. Sue me.


Edited - "remove" for "read"

[gilsey]

This is why politics is so much harder than it looks. Populist tax cuts are popular. Where's anybody going to get that £21bn from easily?

I don't at all think the new team in Labour had any appreciation of this sort of stuff.

Look at the graph again. Even if you say 16/17 can't be changed, the total for that year is 30bn, so there's 15bn still to come for those 4 things. They don't have to raise taxes, just stop cutting them now, and there's the NHS money we need.

Have you seen Richard Murphy's table that shows Labour govts always repay more debt? Conservatives can't resist giveaways to their mates.

[RogerOThornhill]

Always money for pet policies. Raising inheritance tax threshold.

https://www.theguardian.com/money/2017/ ... uth-divide" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Graham Brady, whose Altrincham and Sale constituency is in the top 100, argued that inheritance tax was unfair, particularly in areas with high property values.

“People have been taxed on their income, and they should not face penal tax charges when they leave something to their children,” he said. “It is worth saying that the lesson of recent decades is that, if this tax was left unreformed more and more families around the country would be sucked into it when it was originally intended for the very wealthiest.”

I can't abide this stuff. They haven't been taxed on the unearned gain, have they?

Spending's gone up. Some taxes do. Tough shit.

It's even worse when you consider that the people who are paying that extra tax are the children who've done nothing to "earn" their inheritance apart from the accident of birth.

So they get a bit less - tough.

[AngryAsWell]

Channel 4 News
‏Verified account @Channel4News

PM's top adviser Nick Timothy challenged by @MichaelLCrick over his role in #electionexpenses investigation – full report

" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Michael Crick not letting go of this

[Tubby Isaacs]

This is why politics is so much harder than it looks. Populist tax cuts are popular. Where's anybody going to get that £21bn from easily?

I don't at all think the new team in Labour had any appreciation of this sort of stuff.

Look at the graph again. Even if you say 16/17 can't be changed, the total for that year is 30bn, so there's 15bn still to come for those 4 things. They don't have to raise taxes, just stop cutting them now, and there's the NHS money we need.

Have you seen Richard Murphy's table that shows Labour govts always repay more debt? Conservatives can't resist giveaways to their mates.

I haven't. I expect that's pretty much down to Gordo's first four years where they were incredibly austere, but sounds interesting.

I was meaning in 2020, they'll presumably get something like this facing them. It'll be very tough.

[AngryAsWell]

Can do' folk get to see foreign secretary have narcissistic breakdown
John Crace
‘Why can’t you be honest about Brexit?’ Boris was asked. He just looked confused

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... are_btn_tw" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[AngryAsWell]

Cornwall asks for Government funding after Brexit, doesn’t get it
Read more at: https://inews.co.uk/essentials/news/uk/ ... t-funding/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Perhaps they should have done a little forward thinking before voting.

[HindleA]

[HindleA]

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... uth-divide" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;


Cutting inheritance tax now exposes a warped sense of priorities

[HindleA]

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/02/28/opin ... p=cur&_r=0" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;


The fight for Obamacare has turned

[HindleA]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the ... 9eb379dd64" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;




Donald Trump’s A+/C+ presidency

[HindleA]

http://www.haaretz.com/us-news/1.774524" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;




Trump Reportedly Suggests Wave of anti-Semitic Incidents Could Be False Flags Perpetrated by Jews

[AngryAsWell]

Ford set to cut more than 1,000 jobs in Bridgend, ITV News understands

http://www.itv.com/news/2017-02-28/ford ... derstands/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[AngryAsWell]

Every hospital ordered to change its logo by NHS “identity managers” in move which prompts ridicule

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/02 ... gers-move/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[HindleA]

http://www.independent.co.uk/arts-enter ... 03416.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;


I, Daniel Blake exclusive roundtable with Ken Loach, Mark Steel, and Edith Bowman

[HindleA]

http://www.sunderlandecho.com/our-regio ... -1-8412525" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;


Charity fears for Sunderland’s young homeless after funding cut

[Tubby Isaacs]

http://www.independent.co.uk/arts-enter ... 03416.html


I, Daniel Blake exclusive roundtable with Ken Loach, Mark Steel, and Edith Bowman

Can Loach stay there, instead of trying to prop up Jez?

[Tubby Isaacs]

McDonnell's bypassed the fake news MSM by speaking to Socialist Worker.

It's pitiful stuff as well.