Thursday 2nd April 2015

daydreamer · Post by **daydreamer** » Thu 02 Apr, 2015 6:21 pm

ohsocynical wrote:
daydreamer wrote:@Ohso,

I suppose I'm too late for Bakewell and Peanut Brittle
I make my own puff pastry and have some left over so I daresay there'll be more goodies tomorrow....

Ohh, save some for me.

tinyclanger2 · Post by **tinyclanger2** » Thu 02 Apr, 2015 6:22 pm

Rebecca wrote:
TheGrimSqueaker wrote:
pk1 wrote:From AS blog:
So if you doubt social media is too telling of general public opinion though, how come hacks everywhere publish so many articles that were created on twitter ?
Nice to see Andrew and his colleagues have abandoned any pretence of even handedness; if social media is supporting Labour/Miliband that couldn't possibly be a reflection of how the unwashed masses really feel, could it. I know I've said it before, but the MSM have lost much of their influence although they refuse to admit it; I think AK pointed out yesterday, the Tories haven't won a majority post-internet age.
The thing is,if people using social media to voice their opinions are not the general public ,who are they?And why are the voices of thousands of 'not the general public' people worth less than those of well paid journalists writing for unashamedly biased media outlets?
I wonder if my house will be clean and tidy after thee election,12.30 and I haven't even washed the dishes.

Oxbridge

yahyah · Post by **yahyah** » Thu 02 Apr, 2015 6:25 pm

The Indie has been very positive about the Ed interview too.

& just remembered some more famous Labour supporters for Ernst: Prunella Scales & Timothy West.

Tubby Isaacs · Post by **Tubby Isaacs** » Thu 02 Apr, 2015 6:32 pm

Credit Suisse's research department not exactly coming across as non-Tory here.

http://uk.businessinsider.com/credit-su ... 992-2015-4" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

However, a Labour-led government is likely to pursue a much looser fiscal policy (not least because infrastructure spending will not be included in the arithmetic to balance the budget and the SNP is anti-austerity). Additionally, we see a high probability of increases in public sector wages (with 72% of Labour funding coming from the Trade Unions), as well as a rise in the minimum wage (which Labour plans to increase to £8 per hour by 2020, from £6.50 currently). In such an event, we think that the pace of monetary tightening would be faster. Our Head of European economics, Neville Hill, believes that under a Labour minority government the UK policy rate would be 1.75% at the end of 2016 (compared to a forward curve predicting 82bp) against 1.25% under a Conservative minority government.

pk1 · Post by **pk1** » Thu 02 Apr, 2015 6:39 pm

yahyah wrote:The Indie has been very positive about the Ed interview too.

& just remembered some more famous Labour supporters for Ernst: Prunella Scales & Timothy West.

Stephen Tomkinson too - watching DCI Banks reminded me.

Tubby Isaacs · Post by **Tubby Isaacs** » Thu 02 Apr, 2015 6:43 pm

tinyclanger2 wrote: Oxbridge

Where they do PPE, and where people know the Mediamacro stuff is bollocks.

pk1 · Post by **pk1** » Thu 02 Apr, 2015 6:45 pm

Tubby Isaacs wrote:Credit Suisse's research department not exactly coming across as non-Tory here.

http://uk.businessinsider.com/credit-su ... 992-2015-4" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

However, a Labour-led government is likely to pursue a much looser fiscal policy (not least because infrastructure spending will not be included in the arithmetic to balance the budget and the SNP is anti-austerity). Additionally, we see a high probability of increases in public sector wages (with 72% of Labour funding coming from the Trade Unions), as well as a rise in the minimum wage (which Labour plans to increase to £8 per hour by 2020, from £6.50 currently). In such an event, we think that the pace of monetary tightening would be faster. Our Head of European economics, Neville Hill, believes that under a Labour minority government the UK policy rate would be 1.75% at the end of 2016 (compared to a forward curve predicting 82bp) against 1.25% under a Conservative minority government.

Look at their prediction:

We expect a 45% probability of a Conservative minority (vs polls implying 35%) and a 40% probability of a Labour minority (vs polls implying 48%). These expectations are based on: the experience of the 1992 election, when polls swung in the week before polling day; the personal approval rating of David Cameron and the loss of support for UKIP.

Excuse me for taking a sceptical opinion on a firm that cites the 1992 polling as the basis for their predictions.

Everybody with an interest in polling knows that the polling then was so far out that each polling organisation has dramatically improved their methodology.

Tubby Isaacs · Post by **Tubby Isaacs** » Thu 02 Apr, 2015 6:45 pm

Twitter's cool. Chewing the fat with Simon Wren-Lewis and David Blanchflower....

rebeccariots2 · Post by **rebeccariots2** » Thu 02 Apr, 2015 6:56 pm

Paul Waugh ‏@paulwaugh 1h1 hour ago
Rumour is that Ladbrokes CEO may be withdrawing from Tory letter too, and apparently Tijane Thiam not happy either.

Who he?

frightful_oik · Post by **frightful_oik** » Thu 02 Apr, 2015 6:59 pm

rebeccariots2 wrote:
Paul Waugh ‏@paulwaugh 1h1 hour ago
Rumour is that Ladbrokes CEO may be withdrawing from Tory letter too, and apparently Tijane Thiam not happy either.
Who he?

Man from the Pru who's moving to Credit Suisse or UBS or summat.

TheGrimSqueaker · Post by **TheGrimSqueaker** » Thu 02 Apr, 2015 7:00 pm

I see the Guardian have something up about Astra-Zeneca and Ladbrokes distancing themselves from The Letter, but are too cowardly to open comments!! Suspect this one is going to run and run, Shapps really is a useless wally, isn't he.

So, I said to myself, do I watch the debate or do I watch The Big Bang Theory .... Sheldon and the gang win!

Post by **PaulfromYorkshire** » Thu 02 Apr, 2015 7:02 pm

diGriz wrote:
PorFavor wrote:@ diGriz

I've been meaning to say this for some time now . . .

When I look at your picture\avatar thingy, I always see a side-on image of a black and white duck. It took time for me to realise that it was something different but, even now, the duck is the first thing I see and I have to crank my brain round (almost audibly) to move away from it. A bit like that old woman\young woman drawing, if you know the one I mean.

Message ends . . .
It was unintentional but happy accident. A pre-existing photo I had to tweak in photoshop to size it as an avatar.

I used to see that duck too. But I can't any more

ohsocynical · Post by **ohsocynical** » Thu 02 Apr, 2015 7:03 pm

Tubby Isaacs wrote:Credit Suisse's research department not exactly coming across as non-Tory here.

http://uk.businessinsider.com/credit-su ... 992-2015-4" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

However, a Labour-led government is likely to pursue a much looser fiscal policy (not least because infrastructure spending will not be included in the arithmetic to balance the budget and the SNP is anti-austerity). Additionally, we see a high probability of increases in public sector wages (with 72% of Labour funding coming from the Trade Unions), as well as a rise in the minimum wage (which Labour plans to increase to £8 per hour by 2020, from £6.50 currently). In such an event, we think that the pace of monetary tightening would be faster. Our Head of European economics, Neville Hill, believes that under a Labour minority government the UK policy rate would be 1.75% at the end of 2016 (compared to a forward curve predicting 82bp) against 1.25% under a Conservative minority government.

Ian ‏@Mancman10 10 mins10 minutes ago
Ladbrokes,Astra Zenica & Credit Suisse all now say the Tory party & Telegraph didn't have permission to use their CEO's names in the letter

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Thu 02 Apr, 2015 7:04 pm

rebeccariots2 wrote:
Paul Waugh ‏@paulwaugh 1h1 hour ago
Rumour is that Ladbrokes CEO may be withdrawing from Tory letter too, and apparently Tijane Thiam not happy either.
Who he?

Hello!

Tidjane Thiam (born 29 July 1962)[1] is a French Ivorian businessman and former politician who will become the Chief Executive of Credit Suisse in June 2015.[3] Born in Côte d'Ivoire, he holds dual Ivorian and French citizenship.Wikipedia)

I'm getting confused now about Credit Suisse's stance. Although, as he is presumably not entitled to vote here, Mr Thiam should keep quiet, in any case. Although if he'd been conned, perhaps I'm being rather harsh.

Tubby Isaacs · Post by **Tubby Isaacs** » Thu 02 Apr, 2015 7:07 pm

pk1 wrote:
Tubby Isaacs wrote:Credit Suisse's research department not exactly coming across as non-Tory here.

http://uk.businessinsider.com/credit-su ... 992-2015-4" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

However, a Labour-led government is likely to pursue a much looser fiscal policy (not least because infrastructure spending will not be included in the arithmetic to balance the budget and the SNP is anti-austerity). Additionally, we see a high probability of increases in public sector wages (with 72% of Labour funding coming from the Trade Unions), as well as a rise in the minimum wage (which Labour plans to increase to £8 per hour by 2020, from £6.50 currently). In such an event, we think that the pace of monetary tightening would be faster. Our Head of European economics, Neville Hill, believes that under a Labour minority government the UK policy rate would be 1.75% at the end of 2016 (compared to a forward curve predicting 82bp) against 1.25% under a Conservative minority government.
Look at their prediction:

We expect a 45% probability of a Conservative minority (vs polls implying 35%) and a 40% probability of a Labour minority (vs polls implying 48%). These expectations are based on: the experience of the 1992 election, when polls swung in the week before polling day; the personal approval rating of David Cameron and the loss of support for UKIP.
Excuse me for taking a sceptical opinion on a firm that cites the 1992 polling as the basis for their predictions.

Everybody with an interest in polling knows that the polling then was so far out that each polling organisation has dramatically improved their methodology.

Yes, exactly. There was a general flaw in methods, not some Damascene conversion in the polling booths.

How much is this buffoon paid?

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Thu 02 Apr, 2015 7:07 pm

I shall stay up to watch the 7-leader programme. Waste of effort going to bed, if last time was anything to go by. I shall need your company.

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Thu 02 Apr, 2015 7:10 pm

There *was* actually a late swing in 1992 (those of us active in that election generally agree there regardless of our political persuasion)

It was less than the polls suggested, though, due to their flawed methodology (as was also the case in 1970)

Btw people shouldn't think these things are only one way - most surveys prior to the first 1974 GE predicted a comfortable Tory win.

Tubby Isaacs · Post by **Tubby Isaacs** » Thu 02 Apr, 2015 7:10 pm

Tweeted your point, PK.

Tubby Isaacs · Post by **Tubby Isaacs** » Thu 02 Apr, 2015 7:11 pm

AnatolyKasparov wrote:There *was* actually a late swing in 1992 (those of us active in that election generally agree there regardless of our political persuasion)

It was less than the polls suggested, though, due to their flawed methodology (as was also the case in 1970)

Btw people shouldn't think these things are only one way - most surveys prior to the first 1974 GE predicted a comfortable Tory win.

How much swing?

TheGrimSqueaker · Post by **TheGrimSqueaker** » Thu 02 Apr, 2015 7:11 pm

Cracking piece in the Mirror about Harry Leslie Smith and the campaigning he is doing for Labour at the moment. The man is a force of nature.

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/vo ... ar_twitter" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Thu 02 Apr, 2015 7:14 pm

@ PaulfromYorkshire

Did you really used to see the duck - or are you just humouring me? It's a lovely duck. Shame you can't see it any more (if you could previously). Try looking to (your) right of the picture initially, and it might come quack. Sorry. Back.

TechnicalEphemera · Post by **TechnicalEphemera** » Thu 02 Apr, 2015 7:20 pm

PorFavor wrote:
rebeccariots2 wrote:
Paul Waugh ‏@paulwaugh 1h1 hour ago
Rumour is that Ladbrokes CEO may be withdrawing from Tory letter too, and apparently Tijane Thiam not happy either.
Who he?

Hello!

Tidjane Thiam (born 29 July 1962)[1] is a French Ivorian businessman and former politician who will become the Chief Executive of Credit Suisse in June 2015.[3] Born in Côte d'Ivoire, he holds dual Ivorian and French citizenship.Wikipedia)
I'm getting confused now about Credit Suisse's stance. Although, as he is presumably not entitled to vote here, Mr Thiam should keep quiet, in any case. Although if he'd been conned, perhaps I'm being rather harsh.

I don't think they have a view.

Their forecast is intended to give investors a view of probabilities and consequences of different governments. This is a purely financial view, not a political one.

All of the signaTories* stated they were signing in a personal capacity. This immediately raised my eyebrows because they are also leveraging their companies to make their personal view somehow important. If I did that in my company (say in a technology policy argument) I would need to have corporate approval to do so. The brand is bigger and more valuable than any individual (even the CEO), and reputational damage is a big deal.

So either this gentleman was misled into what he was signing, or his company have had a word in his ear. Ladbrokes and AZ seem to fall into the former category.

* copyright PaulfromYorkshire Ltd.

TechnicalEphemera · Post by **TechnicalEphemera** » Thu 02 Apr, 2015 7:23 pm

AnatolyKasparov wrote:There *was* actually a late swing in 1992 (those of us active in that election generally agree there regardless of our political persuasion)

It was less than the polls suggested, though, due to their flawed methodology (as was also the case in 1970)

Btw people shouldn't think these things are only one way - most surveys prior to the first 1974 GE predicted a comfortable Tory win.

I don't think there was a particularly late swing in 92. I think the polls were wrong, and there was never the momentum on the ground. Many people wanted to vote Labour but perversely the economy was so buggered they daren't risk it.

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Thu 02 Apr, 2015 7:31 pm

TechnicalEphemera wrote:
AnatolyKasparov wrote:There *was* actually a late swing in 1992 (those of us active in that election generally agree there regardless of our political persuasion)

It was less than the polls suggested, though, due to their flawed methodology (as was also the case in 1970)

Btw people shouldn't think these things are only one way - most surveys prior to the first 1974 GE predicted a comfortable Tory win.
I don't think there was a particularly late swing in 92. I think the polls were wrong, and there was never the momentum on the ground. Many people wanted to vote Labour but perversely the economy was so buggered they daren't risk it.

There is certainly some truth in your last point - the inclinations of some back then to "cling to nurse" were rather depressingly obvious in retrospect.

Also, of course, that quite a few felt they had already had a "change of government" when Thatcher went and Major - for all his failings - was a much more likeable figure than Cameron will ever be. Kinnock was also seen by some as tired and familiar (certainly his campaigning then had little of the zip of 1987 - one of the few moments when he let himself be himself, the Sheffield rally, was of course used against him)

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Thu 02 Apr, 2015 7:45 pm

I know that the 7-leader thing is already unwieldy, but I'm starting to think that the DUP should have been represented in the light of David Cameron perhaps looking to them to provide him with support.

ohsocynical · Post by **ohsocynical** » Thu 02 Apr, 2015 7:47 pm

TechnicalEphemera wrote:
PorFavor wrote:
rebeccariots2 wrote: Who he?

Hello!

Tidjane Thiam (born 29 July 1962)[1] is a French Ivorian businessman and former politician who will become the Chief Executive of Credit Suisse in June 2015.[3] Born in Côte d'Ivoire, he holds dual Ivorian and French citizenship.Wikipedia)
I'm getting confused now about Credit Suisse's stance. Although, as he is presumably not entitled to vote here, Mr Thiam should keep quiet, in any case. Although if he'd been conned, perhaps I'm being rather harsh.
I don't think they have a view.

Their forecast is intended to give investors a view of probabilities and consequences of different governments. This is a purely financial view, not a political one.

All of the signaTories* stated they were signing in a personal capacity. This immediately raised my eyebrows because they are also leveraging their companies to make their personal view somehow important. If I did that in my company (say in a technology policy argument) I would need to have corporate approval to do so. The brand is bigger and more valuable than any individual (even the CEO), and reputational damage is a big deal.

So either this gentleman was misled into what he was signing, or his company have had a word in his ear. Ladbrokes and AZ seem to fall into the former category.

* copyright PaulfromYorkshire Ltd.

Ladbrooks Tweeted that the signing and subsequent standing aside via letter, was in a purely personal capacity. I replied that if the press did their job properly such as showing or reading out the letter that's all over the Twittersphere, then there wouldn't be such confusion.

And as THE letter has Shapps sticky fingers all over it, I bet they [Cons] weren't looking at the names as such, but the companies behind the names.

ohsocynical · Post by **ohsocynical** » Thu 02 Apr, 2015 7:51 pm

I wonder how Shapps got those so called hard headed, shrewd business men to let their names be used?

ohsocynical · Post by **ohsocynical** » Thu 02 Apr, 2015 7:54 pm

Mr Ohso is refusing to watch any more on the TV. He says it's a fix and as he's not feeling too good at present, I'd better not upset him.

I'm going to watch the debate on the computer with my earphones on

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Thu 02 Apr, 2015 7:56 pm

Noooh! SQuirreL! Please don't . . . .

Edited to add a "u". I'm agitated.

StephenDolan · Post by **StephenDolan** » Thu 02 Apr, 2015 8:04 pm

A lot of sweaty brows.

RogerOThornhill · Post by **RogerOThornhill** » Thu 02 Apr, 2015 8:06 pm

Sounds like there's a deal over Iran.

Mad Mel and Israel will be furious...

ohsocynical · Post by **ohsocynical** » Thu 02 Apr, 2015 8:10 pm

Clegg straight into no one's going to win outright so there'll be coalition of some sort.
Nige straight into immigration.

Natalie Benefit. business like.

Nicola Sturgeon pretty ok.

Cameron. Straight into budget defecit. Economic plan 2 mill in work cut taxes, fastest growing economy. unemployment down.

Leanne Wood. Nothing much said just support Wales.

Ed. Raise min wage. NHS. Young. short and to the point.

ohsocynical · Post by **ohsocynical** » Thu 02 Apr, 2015 8:18 pm

I think I preferred Paxman questioning Cameron. But even so Cam is sweating.

Farage in like an attack dog about the deficit and Nat. Debt. Did well.

Bennet sensible. All of them so far knocking Dave's arguments down.

Sturgeon doing the same.

ohsocynical · Post by **ohsocynical** » Thu 02 Apr, 2015 8:19 pm

Clegg arguing against everything he voted for.

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Thu 02 Apr, 2015 8:22 pm

Nick Clegg also said that at the last General Election we were asked to vote for what sort of coalition we wanted (I paraphrase - he was more wordy). That is simply and totally untrue.

Edited - brackets

Spacedone · Post by **Spacedone** » Thu 02 Apr, 2015 8:25 pm

Turned it on for a second, heard Farage shouting about the country's "maxed out credit card" and switched off again.

ohsocynical · Post by **ohsocynical** » Thu 02 Apr, 2015 8:25 pm

That fucking Cameron read out the joke letter about sorry there's no money left.

frightful_oik · Post by **frightful_oik** » Thu 02 Apr, 2015 8:26 pm

the moderator has lost it.

daydreamer · Post by **daydreamer** » Thu 02 Apr, 2015 8:26 pm

PorFavor wrote:Nick Clegg also said that at the last General Election we were asked to vote for what sort of coalition we wanted (I paraphrase - he was more wordy). That is simply and totally untrue.

Edited - brackets

Ohso & PF

Thanks to you both for keeping us up to date. It's above and beyond the call of duty. I don't know how you can stomach Clegg and Cameron.

Typical Clegg with his bare-faced lies

How's Ed doing?

RogerOThornhill · Post by **RogerOThornhill** » Thu 02 Apr, 2015 8:27 pm

Cameron has just, with "a copy of the letter" there, got the quote wrong.

What a fucking liar.

ohsocynical · Post by **ohsocynical** » Thu 02 Apr, 2015 8:27 pm

Plaid repeating Labour voted for the 30 million austerity cut.

Spacedone · Post by **Spacedone** » Thu 02 Apr, 2015 8:28 pm

Before I switched off did I heard Cameron talking about some tax legislation they brought in this week? Awfully convenient timing that.

daydreamer · Post by **daydreamer** » Thu 02 Apr, 2015 8:28 pm

Spacedone wrote:Turned it on for a second, heard Farage shouting about the country's "maxed out credit card" and switched off again.

Yeah, I can't bear to watch it either.

daydreamer · Post by **daydreamer** » Thu 02 Apr, 2015 8:28 pm

ohsocynical wrote:That fucking Cameron read out the joke letter about sorry there's no money left.

ohsocynical · Post by **ohsocynical** » Thu 02 Apr, 2015 8:29 pm

Farage will have upset the Scots because he said tax payer are fed up seeing all the money going across Hadrians wall.

daydreamer · Post by **daydreamer** » Thu 02 Apr, 2015 8:30 pm

ohsocynical wrote:Plaid repeating Labour voted for the 30 million austerity cut.

I hope Ed's getting the chance to correct that.

ohsocynical · Post by **ohsocynical** » Thu 02 Apr, 2015 8:30 pm

Greens saying about the austerity vote again.

ohsocynical · Post by **ohsocynical** » Thu 02 Apr, 2015 8:31 pm

Bennet not very smooth.

ohsocynical · Post by **ohsocynical** » Thu 02 Apr, 2015 8:32 pm

The women shouted Ed down !!!!!

ohsocynical · Post by **ohsocynical** » Thu 02 Apr, 2015 8:33 pm

asking Cameron where the welfare cuts are going to be?