FlyTheNest

LadyCentauria wrote:

RogerOThornhill wrote:

rearofthestore wrote: I do hope this trend continues. What will NickyB make of it?

It'll be because people are still on holiday - that's his latest excuse.

Oh, so that's what a moving weighted average is then: planeloads of tourists and their luggage off on jolly hols – and you still can't get Watney's Red Barrel 'cause you're stuck on the runway...

PorFavor wrote:

ohsocynical wrote:Whoops!

Big questions for Boris over billion dollar property deal

http://www.channel4.com/news/boris-john ... lbert-dock

Is there anything new floating about on this? It's good to not let these things be forgotten, though. Short memories are relied upon...

PorFavor wrote:Just to be irrelevant -

Is anyone here following the Hatton Garden safety deposit box robbery story? The police's main concern seems to be that the robbers didn't tidy up before they made off with the loot.

LadyCentauria wrote:

RogerOThornhill wrote:

rearofthestore wrote: I do hope this trend continues. What will NickyB make of it?

It'll be because people are still on holiday - that's his latest excuse.

Oh, so that's what a moving weighted average is then: planeloads of tourists and their luggage off on jolly hols – and you still can't get Watney's Red Barrel 'cause you're stuck on the runway...

PorFavor wrote:Just to be irrelevant -

Is anyone here following the Hatton Garden safety deposit box robbery story? The police's main concern seems to be that the robbers didn't tidy up before they made off with the loot.

TechnicalEphemera wrote:... I call this extrapolating so far that you run out of common sense.

Jason Groves @JasonGroves1
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Ukip's Diane James says she 'admires' Putin. Lib Dem Lynne Featherstone says she's 'not sure' Nato shd defend eastern Europe. Incredible

John Stevens ✔ @johnestevens
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After praising Putin, Diane James is praising Nicola Sturgeon... that might not be a compliment @LBC
9:12 PM - 9 Apr 2015

PorFavor wrote:Just to be irrelevant -

Is anyone here following the Hatton Garden safety deposit box robbery story? The police's main concern seems to be that the robbers didn't tidy up before they made off with the loot.

RogerOThornhill wrote:Here's the link to the Labour education manifesto...haven't read it yet.

http://www.labouremail.org.uk/files/upl ... 801cba.pdf

Toady's written an article for the Spectator about what Labour will do but don't bother reading it as it's junk.

ohsocynical wrote:Labour Whips retweeted
Lord Ashcroft ‏@LordAshcroft 47 mins47 minutes ago

The tables and methodology of internal polling of marginal seats by the Tories have not been shared with candidates.

I'm guessing this is bad because it was reTweeted by Labour Whips...

Desperate' Tory plot to organise own letter from doctors exposed in bombshell leaked email

http://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/generalel ... ar-AAaEPj9

utopiandreams wrote:

PorFavor wrote:Just to be irrelevant -

Is anyone here following the Hatton Garden safety deposit box robbery story? The police's main concern seems to be that the robbers didn't tidy up before they made off with the loot.

Is that a euphemism for defecated on the floor, PorFavor?

Edit: genuine question. Should that be an euphemism? I nearly put that when I wrote it but it just seemed wrong when you verbalise. It's like an hotel, which is the proper form even if we don't drop our aitches.

pk1 wrote:ITV news has done a piece on the pension changes & contacted various firms to find out what effect, if any, the new rules has made.

Phoenix Group (5m customers) report 65% of calls were from people inquiring about withdrawing their entire pension pot

Fidelity (1m customers) report 75% of calls were from people inquiring about withdrawing their entire pension pot

Hargreaves Lansdown (no number of customers given) said 31% called about taking a lump sum with 8% wanting to take it all out

Surely this wasn't what they anticipated when Webb & Osborne came up with this wheeze.

PorFavor wrote:What they'll say when they look behind the 'frig' is anybody's guess.

As well as running for the party in the local elections, Mr Langley is the vice chairman of Ukip’s Bristol branch.

Is the Tory Trident row an example of a ‘dead cat’ strategy?

http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehous ... -strategy/

RogerOThornhill wrote:Guardian headline for tomorrow is

The day the polls turned



Here's a bet - NickyB will either (i) not turn up or (ii) stick a grudging two liner on an obscure thread where hardly anyone will notice it.

I noticed that Open Seas/Tweety went AWOL as well. Sanguine's heart isn't in it and notso seems to have vanished.

Spacedone wrote:And here's the latest in the Get Ed campaign.

Ed Miliband was dating senior BBC economics journalist Stephanie Flanders when he was at the Treasury
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politic ... asury.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

PorFavor wrote:

Spacedone wrote:And here's the latest in the Get Ed campaign.

Ed Miliband was dating senior BBC economics journalist Stephanie Flanders when he was at the Treasury
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politic ... asury.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Yes - but they've disinterred an old story there.

TechnicalEphemera wrote:

PorFavor wrote:

Spacedone wrote:And here's the latest in the Get Ed campaign.

Ed Miliband was dating senior BBC economics journalist Stephanie Flanders when he was at the Treasury
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politic ... asury.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Yes - but they've disinterred an old story there.

Didn't we already know this?

Paul Mason ‏@paulmasonnews 19 mins19 minutes ago
One day, if you grow up to have the byline Chief Political Correspondent, do you want to be writing **** like this?

Spacedone wrote:

TechnicalEphemera wrote:

PorFavor wrote:
Yes - but they've disinterred an old story there.

Didn't we already know this?

Not sure that matters in a smear campaign.

BTL is pretty universally despairing at how petty this stuff is.

TechnicalEphemera wrote:

LadyCentauria wrote:

RogerOThornhill wrote: It'll be because people are still on holiday - that's his latest excuse.

Oh, so that's what a moving weighted average is then: planeloads of tourists and their luggage off on jolly hols – and you still can't get Watney's Red Barrel 'cause you're stuck on the runway...

You wouldn't want Watneys Red Barrel. Have a nice British (or American) craft ale instead.

The weighted moving average is actually a valid concept, but Nicky B stole it from Nate Silver. It basically averages all the polls within a time window but places additional emphasis on more recent polls.

However where I part company with the muppet is his concept that it has a trend that can be predicted. It doesn't, polls do not have long term trends, they react to events. So he draws arbitrary lines and fits his average to that, hence his belief in the famous crossover point. I call this extrapolating so far that you run out of common sense.

Flanders, who has dated – although not simultaneously – Ed Miliband and Ed Balls, has form.

frightful_oik wrote:

LadyCentauria wrote:

RogerOThornhill wrote: It'll be because people are still on holiday - that's his latest excuse.

Oh, so that's what a moving weighted average is then: planeloads of tourists and their luggage off on jolly hols – and you still can't get Watney's Red Barrel 'cause you're stuck on the runway...

Lady Centauria, you are Mr Smoketoomuch and I claim my Party Seven.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yz2LaJOVAiA

tinyclanger2 wrote:edited in case my message, in itself, breached football magic rules

RogerOThornhill wrote:The Stephanie Falnders / Ed Miliband thing/fling?

yes...it was in the telegraph nearly 4 years ago and probably before that even.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/culture/tvan ... borne.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Flanders, who has dated – although not simultaneously – Ed Miliband and Ed Balls, has form.

Seriously, who cares?

Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB 1 min1 minute ago

After last week's 4% CON lead tonight's ComRes/Mail phone poll has
Con 34% (-2)
Lab 33% (+1)
Lib Dem 12% (+3)
UKIP 12% (NC)

Sam Coates Times ‏@SamCoatesTimes 1 min1 minute ago
Exclusive: Awful news for Labour in Scotland as SNP take biggest YouGov lead
(compared to last week)
SNP 49 +3
Lab 25 -4
Con 18 +2
LD 4 +1

Spacedone wrote:

Sam Coates Times ‏@SamCoatesTimes 1 min1 minute ago
Exclusive: Awful news for Labour in Scotland as SNP take biggest YouGov lead
(compared to last week)
SNP 49 +3
Lab 25 -4
Con 18 +2
LD 4 +1

Didn't YouGov just change their methodology again?

ohsocynical wrote:Faisal Islam ‏@faisalislam 32 secs33 seconds ago
Comres/itv/mail has Conservatives ahead by 1%, phone poll, but lead down 2.

Con 34,
lab 33,
Libs 12,
UKIP 12...

Good news for Clegg. Up 3

Simply changing the structure of schools, turning them into academies or setting up new Free Schools, has failed to
deliver high standards. Free Schools are failing at a greater rate than other schools, one in five academies is
underperforming and whole areas have been left to languish.

Labour understands that simply changing a school’s structure is not enough; raising standards requires local oversight of school performance, help for struggling schools and great teaching and leadership. Most of all it requires a shared local mission to turn things around. So we will end the centralisation of powers in education, giving all schools the freedoms to innovate currently only granted to some.

We will also introduce new Directors of School Standards, appointed locally and with a remit to tackle underperformance
and respond to the views of parents. Building on the success of London Challenge, Directors of School Standards will build collaboration between schools, identify problems and intervene early to help fix them. To put an end to low expectations and chronic underperformance each local area will agree its own ‘Standards Challenge’ – an area-wide school improvement plan including a new public target for raising standards and attainment locally, for which the Director of School Standards
will be accountable.

Directors of School Standards will also be responsible for commissioning new schools where there is a local shortage
of places, encouraging innovative bids from established providers, good local authorities, parents, teachers and
entrepreneurs. Labour will end the underperforming Free Schools programme and the wasteful practice of building schools in areas without a shortage of school places. This money will instead be spent where it is needed so Labour can deliver enough school places to cap infant classes at 30 pupils or under.

PorFavor wrote:

ohsocynical wrote:Faisal Islam ‏@faisalislam 32 secs33 seconds ago
Comres/itv/mail has Conservatives ahead by 1%, phone poll, but lead down 2.

Con 34,
lab 33,
Libs 12,
UKIP 12...

Good news for Clegg. Up 3

Great beat combo the Clegg Up 3. It's rumoured that the lead singer might be leaving in May, though.


Edited to add an "r"

TechnicalEphemera wrote:

PorFavor wrote:

ohsocynical wrote:Faisal Islam ‏@faisalislam 32 secs33 seconds ago
Comres/itv/mail has Conservatives ahead by 1%, phone poll, but lead down 2.

Con 34,
lab 33,
Libs 12,
UKIP 12...

Good news for Clegg. Up 3

Great beat combo the Clegg Up 3. It's rumoured that the lead singer might be leaving in May, though.


Edited to add an "r"

That is a poll that says outlier. Who answers a phone these days?

PorFavor wrote:

TechnicalEphemera wrote:

PorFavor wrote: Great beat combo the Clegg Up 3. It's rumoured that the lead singer might be leaving in May, though.


Edited to add an "r"

That is a poll that says outlier. Who answers a phone these days?

You may well ask. ('Phone canvassing - largely a waste of time, in my opinion; but I do what I can.)