Page 5 of 8

Re: Wednesday 29th April 2015

Posted: Wed 29 Apr, 2015 4:43 pm
by ohsocynical
Willow904 wrote:
Spacedone wrote:Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB 12 mins12 minutes ago
Before turnout weighting and don't know re-allocation in @LordAshcroft Swindon S poll LAB was 2% ahead
The whole election is just too close to predict. Margin of error is too big for polls to give us a definitive prediction unless one party is clearly well ahead. If there wasn't so much riding on it, election night would be fascinating. As it is, it's a bit nail-biting, isn't it?
I'm dreading it...Will be far too edgy to go to bed, and yet it's going to be fatal fascination watching the results come in.

I have promised myself an extremely expensive bottle of gin, Aldi's cheap stuff simply won't be good enough to get me throught the worst if that's what should happen. It's all I can think to do. I don't know the antidote for despair

Re: Wednesday 29th April 2015

Posted: Wed 29 Apr, 2015 4:44 pm
by Spacedone
StephenDolan wrote:The Sheffield Hallam poll, 18-24yo

Unweighted 34
Weighted 125!
Wait... what?

Re: Wednesday 29th April 2015

Posted: Wed 29 Apr, 2015 4:45 pm
by rearofthestore
ohsocynical wrote:
ephemerid wrote:
seeingclearly wrote:I've seen a fair few posts saying we haven't seen a politician like this for a long time.
Good.

It's about time - some of us have been saying he has the makings of a ( possibly great, in time) statesman.

Nice to see a few more people finally catching on.....
I've had that feeling about him from the get go. He's not just a politician who happens to be PM, he's going down in the history books as a Statesman. I'm glad I've lived long enough to see another Labour 'great' emerge.

I can't remember both names but one of his MPs said he was a cross between another famous Statesman and Harold Wilson...

I remember my dad saying about Wilson that he was a cunning, clever politician.
I liked Harold Wilson. I seem to remember they called him the pragmatic PM. When he lost 1970 election it was against the odds as (if I recall) opinion polls suggested he would win. I remember I was devastated.

Re: Wednesday 29th April 2015

Posted: Wed 29 Apr, 2015 4:49 pm
by PorFavor

Can the Tory five-year tax lock work? This reality-check blog by my colleague Jamie Grierson answers that question for you.

One of Britain’s leading economists, John Kay, who has run the Institute for Fiscal Studies and been a professor at Oxford University and the London Business School, said he was “not aware of this kind of legislation being introduced before”. But it is possible.

The coalition brought in similar changes to the law with welfare when they introduced a statutory 1% cap on annual increases in benefits.

Whether it is a good idea is a different question. Income tax, VAT and national insurance contributions make up around 60% of all tax revenues.
The response doesn't answer the question at all. And "Whether it is a good idea" is not a different question - it is, at best, playing with semantics.

Re: Wednesday 29th April 2015

Posted: Wed 29 Apr, 2015 4:51 pm
by tinybgoat
rearofthestore wrote:
pk1 wrote:Sheffield Hallam:
Labour way ahead of Clegg before adjustment
Table 2
Q.2 If there was a general election tomorrow, which party would you vote for?
Base: All respondents
That's promising, Historically it's been a Conservative seat, with no chance of Labour getting in + a lot of liberal votes from 2010 were just tactical to keep conservatives out. (guilty)

Re: Wednesday 29th April 2015

Posted: Wed 29 Apr, 2015 4:56 pm
by ohsocynical
Richard Calhoun ‏@richardcalhoun 2 mins2 minutes ago
Ashcroft poll: Nigel Farage on course to lose South Thanet http://www.cityam.com/214804/ashcroft-p ... -sheffield" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; … via @CityAM

Re: Wednesday 29th April 2015

Posted: Wed 29 Apr, 2015 5:00 pm
by tinybgoat
Spacedone wrote:
StephenDolan wrote:The Sheffield Hallam poll, 18-24yo

Unweighted 34
Weighted 125!
Wait... what?
Hmm,Maybe it's a phone poll, and nobody under age of 24 has a landline??
Or they were all out leafleting
:?

Re: Wednesday 29th April 2015

Posted: Wed 29 Apr, 2015 5:00 pm
by Primecut
Hello

I've been meaning to register for a while but the BMG poll has pushed me to do so to see if anyone can answer a simple question - should the breakdown of polls reflect a region's % of population/constituencies? I ask because the BMG tables seem to have the 'Southern' region over-represented based on both at approx 36% whereas, if UKPR list of constituencies for the South East & South West is correct (157 out of 533), it should be something like 29%. Given that the south of England is predominately tory, surely this would create a bias towards them? Might it also explain 11% for the LDs given the south west has historically been their base?

Re: Wednesday 29th April 2015

Posted: Wed 29 Apr, 2015 5:00 pm
by ohsocynical
PorFavor wrote:

Can the Tory five-year tax lock work? This reality-check blog by my colleague Jamie Grierson answers that question for you.

One of Britain’s leading economists, John Kay, who has run the Institute for Fiscal Studies and been a professor at Oxford University and the London Business School, said he was “not aware of this kind of legislation being introduced before”. But it is possible.

The coalition brought in similar changes to the law with welfare when they introduced a statutory 1% cap on annual increases in benefits.

Whether it is a good idea is a different question. Income tax, VAT and national insurance contributions make up around 60% of all tax revenues.
The response doesn't answer the question at all. And "Whether it is a good idea" is not a different question - it is, at best, playing with semantics.
Michael White's article in the Guardian [link posted earlier] was scathing.

Re: Wednesday 29th April 2015

Posted: Wed 29 Apr, 2015 5:02 pm
by rearofthestore
The next poll now up
Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB 1m1 minute ago
LAB have 3% lead in CON's 50 most vulnerable seats to LAB according to ComRes/ITV poll. A 3.5% CON to LAB swing

More

Re: Wednesday 29th April 2015

Posted: Wed 29 Apr, 2015 5:02 pm
by ohsocynical
Primecut wrote:Hello

I've been meaning to register for a while but the BMG poll has pushed me to do so to see if anyone can answer a simple question - should the breakdown of polls reflect a region's % of population/constituencies? I ask because the BMG tables seem to have the 'Southern' region over-represented based on both at approx 36% whereas, if UKPR list of constituencies for the South East & South West is correct (157 out of 533), it should be something like 29%. Given that the south of England is predominately tory, surely this would create a bias towards them? Might it also explain 11% for the LDs given the south west has historically been their base?
Can't answer your question, but nice to see you....

Re: Wednesday 29th April 2015

Posted: Wed 29 Apr, 2015 5:04 pm
by PorFavor
ohsocynical wrote:Richard Calhoun ‏@richardcalhoun 2 mins2 minutes ago
Ashcroft poll: Nigel Farage on course to lose South Thanet http://www.cityam.com/214804/ashcroft-p ... -sheffield" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; … via @CityAM
If I were given the straight choice between Nick Clegg losing or Nigel Farage winning, I'd have to opt for Nick Clegg losing.

Re: Wednesday 29th April 2015

Posted: Wed 29 Apr, 2015 5:06 pm
by TechnicalEphemera
rearofthestore wrote:The next poll now up
Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB 1m1 minute ago
LAB have 3% lead in CON's 50 most vulnerable seats to LAB according to ComRes/ITV poll. A 3.5% CON to LAB swing

More
Not really good enough unfortunately. Labour need a bit more than that.

Re: Wednesday 29th April 2015

Posted: Wed 29 Apr, 2015 5:06 pm
by ephemerid
Why is there any concern over the nicked/missing ballot papers?

When you go to vote, you show your Polling Card/ID to the (usually civil service and/or otherwise vetted) clerk.
He/she checks you on the list and gives you your polling slip.
You make your X in the appropriate box/spoil your paper.

Then YOU put it in the ballot box.

Your Polling Card is sent to you personally, it is checked against your address by the clerk; if your name isn't on the list you can't vote and you will not be given a ballot paper; if someone wanders in with a stolen paper and tries to vote the checking system will prevent them from doing so.

So if 250,000 ballot papers are missing, the only problem is getting new ones printed in time for next Thursday.
If it would make the Electoral Commission or worried voters happy, they could mark them in some way.

The vast majority of electoral fraud in this country is done through postal voting - and it's a bit too late to worry about that.
I would imagine any polling clerk who suddenly had an extra quarter of a million voters turning up would have a conniption - and something would be done about it.

As it's Eastleigh, and the Libbing Dead are keen to hang on there, some lunatic from LibDem voice might have foolishly engaged in some skulduggery not quite understanding how polling actually works; judging by their witterings I wouldn't be at all surprised,
As for Hastings, Amber Rudd the incumbent Tory, has a very slender majority.

Re: Wednesday 29th April 2015

Posted: Wed 29 Apr, 2015 5:07 pm
by frightful_oik
ohsocynical wrote:
Primecut wrote:Hello

I've been meaning to register for a while but the BMG poll has pushed me to do so to see if anyone can answer a simple question - should the breakdown of polls reflect a region's % of population/constituencies? I ask because the BMG tables seem to have the 'Southern' region over-represented based on both at approx 36% whereas, if UKPR list of constituencies for the South East & South West is correct (157 out of 533), it should be something like 29%. Given that the south of England is predominately tory, surely this would create a bias towards them? Might it also explain 11% for the LDs given the south west has historically been their base?
Can't answer your question, but nice to see you....
Ditto that! Welcome Primecut.

Re: Wednesday 29th April 2015

Posted: Wed 29 Apr, 2015 5:08 pm
by PorFavor
ephemerid wrote:Why is there any concern over the nicked/missing ballot papers?

When you go to vote, you show your Polling Card/ID to the (usually civil service and/or otherwise vetted) clerk.
He/she checks you on the list and gives you your polling slip.
You make your X in the appropriate box/spoil your paper.

Then YOU put it in the ballot box.

Your Polling Card is sent to you personally, it is checked against your address by the clerk; if your name isn't on the list you can't vote and you will not be given a ballot paper; if someone wanders in with a stolen paper and tries to vote the checking system will prevent them from doing so.

So if 250,000 ballot papers are missing, the only problem is getting new ones printed in time for next Thursday.
If it would make the Electoral Commission or worried voters happy, they could mark them in some way.

The vast majority of electoral fraud in this country is done through postal voting - and it's a bit too late to worry about that.
I would imagine any polling clerk who suddenly had an extra quarter of a million voters turning up would have a conniption - and something would be done about it.

As it's Eastleigh, and the Libbing Dead are keen to hang on there, some lunatic from LibDem voice might have foolishly engaged in some skulduggery not quite understanding how polling actually works; judging by their witterings I wouldn't be at all surprised,
As for Hastings, Amber Rudd the incumbent Tory, has a very slender majority.
You're not required to take your polling card to the polling station, though. Or produce any form of identification.

Re: Wednesday 29th April 2015

Posted: Wed 29 Apr, 2015 5:09 pm
by Eric_WLothian
tinybgoat wrote: Hmm,Maybe it's a phone poll, and nobody under age of 24 has a landline??
Or they were all out leafleting
:?
Given the number of nuisance calls, I guess they'll be lucky to get many polite responses. My phone routes 'number withheld' and 'number unavailable' calls straight to the answerphone!

Re: Wednesday 29th April 2015

Posted: Wed 29 Apr, 2015 5:11 pm
by ephemerid
Hello Primecut.

I think we need Anatoly or TE someone who understands this stuff (there are a few here) to answer that.

Hopefully they'll be along later to help you.

Meanwhile, have a pew and a nice cup of Lavazza espresso. I've made it special, like.
I've got some lemon chessecake too (I ate the last of the polenta cake, and I am not sorry)

Re: Wednesday 29th April 2015

Posted: Wed 29 Apr, 2015 5:11 pm
by ephemerid
Hello Primecut.

I think we need Anatoly or TE someone who understands this stuff (there are a few here) to answer that.

Hopefully they'll be along later to help you.

Meanwhile, have a pew and a nice cup of Lavazza espresso. I've made it special, like.
I've got some lemon chessecake too (I ate the last of the polenta cake, and I am not sorry)

Re: Wednesday 29th April 2015

Posted: Wed 29 Apr, 2015 5:13 pm
by ohsocynical
ephemerid wrote:Why is there any concern over the nicked/missing ballot papers?

When you go to vote, you show your Polling Card/ID to the (usually civil service and/or otherwise vetted) clerk.
He/she checks you on the list and gives you your polling slip.
You make your X in the appropriate box/spoil your paper.

Then YOU put it in the ballot box.

Your Polling Card is sent to you personally, it is checked against your address by the clerk; if your name isn't on the list you can't vote and you will not be given a ballot paper; if someone wanders in with a stolen paper and tries to vote the checking system will prevent them from doing so.

So if 250,000 ballot papers are missing, the only problem is getting new ones printed in time for next Thursday.
If it would make the Electoral Commission or worried voters happy, they could mark them in some way.

The vast majority of electoral fraud in this country is done through postal voting - and it's a bit too late to worry about that.
I would imagine any polling clerk who suddenly had an extra quarter of a million voters turning up would have a conniption - and something would be done about it.

As it's Eastleigh, and the Libbing Dead are keen to hang on there, some lunatic from LibDem voice might have foolishly engaged in some skulduggery not quite understanding how polling actually works; judging by their witterings I wouldn't be at all surprised,
As for Hastings, Amber Rudd the incumbent Tory, has a very slender majority.
I take numbers outside the polling station, and a lot of people turn up without their card. They have to give their name and address though to get the polling paper.

Re: Wednesday 29th April 2015

Posted: Wed 29 Apr, 2015 5:16 pm
by pk1
tinybgoat wrote:
Spacedone wrote:
StephenDolan wrote:The Sheffield Hallam poll, 18-24yo

Unweighted 34
Weighted 125!
Wait... what?
Hmm,Maybe it's a phone poll, and nobody under age of 24 has a landline??
Or they were all out leafleting
:?
It was an online poll, not phone.

Re: Wednesday 29th April 2015

Posted: Wed 29 Apr, 2015 5:19 pm
by Tubby Isaacs
Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB 16m16 minutes ago
The 3.5% CON to LAB swing would just be enough to give LAB most seats even if all Scottish seats lost.

Re: Wednesday 29th April 2015

Posted: Wed 29 Apr, 2015 5:20 pm
by Tubby Isaacs
ohsocynical wrote:
Primecut wrote:Hello

I've been meaning to register for a while but the BMG poll has pushed me to do so to see if anyone can answer a simple question - should the breakdown of polls reflect a region's % of population/constituencies? I ask because the BMG tables seem to have the 'Southern' region over-represented based on both at approx 36% whereas, if UKPR list of constituencies for the South East & South West is correct (157 out of 533), it should be something like 29%. Given that the south of England is predominately tory, surely this would create a bias towards them? Might it also explain 11% for the LDs given the south west has historically been their base?
Can't answer your question, but nice to see you....
Seconded on both points!

Re: Wednesday 29th April 2015

Posted: Wed 29 Apr, 2015 5:21 pm
by citizenJA
TechnicalEphemera wrote:
rearofthestore wrote:The next poll now up
Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB 1m1 minute ago
LAB have 3% lead in CON's 50 most vulnerable seats to LAB according to ComRes/ITV poll. A 3.5% CON to LAB swing

More
Not really good enough unfortunately. Labour need a bit more than that.
"in CON's 50 most vulnerable seats"
It's a specific 3.5% Tory to Labour swing in those 50 vulnerable Tory seats, not across the nation.

Re: Wednesday 29th April 2015

Posted: Wed 29 Apr, 2015 5:23 pm
by ohsocynical
Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB 1h1 hour ago

31% of 2010 CON voters in @LordAshcroft Sheffield Hallam poll say they are voting for Clegg

Re: Wednesday 29th April 2015

Posted: Wed 29 Apr, 2015 5:26 pm
by ephemerid
PorFavor wrote:
ephemerid wrote:Why is there any concern over the nicked/missing ballot papers?

When you go to vote, you show your Polling Card/ID to the (usually civil service and/or otherwise vetted) clerk.
He/she checks you on the list and gives you your polling slip.
You make your X in the appropriate box/spoil your paper.

Then YOU put it in the ballot box.

Your Polling Card is sent to you personally, it is checked against your address by the clerk; if your name isn't on the list you can't vote and you will not be given a ballot paper; if someone wanders in with a stolen paper and tries to vote the checking system will prevent them from doing so.

So if 250,000 ballot papers are missing, the only problem is getting new ones printed in time for next Thursday.
If it would make the Electoral Commission or worried voters happy, they could mark them in some way.

The vast majority of electoral fraud in this country is done through postal voting - and it's a bit too late to worry about that.
I would imagine any polling clerk who suddenly had an extra quarter of a million voters turning up would have a conniption - and something would be done about it.

As it's Eastleigh, and the Libbing Dead are keen to hang on there, some lunatic from LibDem voice might have foolishly engaged in some skulduggery not quite understanding how polling actually works; judging by their witterings I wouldn't be at all surprised,
As for Hastings, Amber Rudd the incumbent Tory, has a very slender majority.
You're not required to take your polling card to the polling station, though. Or produce any form of identification.

Really? I wouldn't know as I've always taken my polling card.

Still, it makes no odds.

How would the voter be able to vote more than once? The only way would be to hide an extra ballot paper into the folds of the one given to you by the clerk, and when the boxes are emptied it would be obvious that something dodgy is going on; plus, when the votes are counted and the figures don't tally with the turnout as it appears to the clerks in the station, there'd be an enquiry.
Postal votes will not be accepted unless they are accompanied by the postal voting statement, so a bunch of random ballot papers turning up without attached statements won't be counted.

It can be fixed by issuing new papers with some sort of mark on anyway - that way any of the lost/stolen ones can be taken out of the count. What with this and the Hull error, a few councils will be spending a bit more than they planned.....

Re: Wednesday 29th April 2015

Posted: Wed 29 Apr, 2015 5:27 pm
by citizenJA
Mike Smithson
‏@MSmithsonPB
LAB have 3% lead in CON's 50 most vulnerable seats to LAB according to ComRes/ITV poll. A 3.5% CON to LAB swing

Image

" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Re: Wednesday 29th April 2015

Posted: Wed 29 Apr, 2015 5:30 pm
by rebeccariots2
RobertSnozers wrote: Apropos of nothing, a Green leaflet came through my door yesterday. On it, the candidate listed among his interests/achievements 'writing fiction e-books including an autobiography'.

???
Thank you. That has just made me cackle out loud. And I had come in to the house very down after having one of those sudden moments of recollection and grief that hit you like a sledgehammer - driving up to the cottage, opening my car door and there was no Musica running down the path and pushing her nose into my lap to say hello, can we go for a walk, now .... why does grief do that, come out of nowhere like that?

Re: Wednesday 29th April 2015

Posted: Wed 29 Apr, 2015 5:32 pm
by Spacedone
citizenJA wrote:Mike Smithson
‏@MSmithsonPB
LAB have 3% lead in CON's 50 most vulnerable seats to LAB according to ComRes/ITV poll. A 3.5% CON to LAB swing

Image

" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
The fifty seats where fieldwork was conducted are: North Warwickshire, Thurrock, Hendon, Cardiff North, Sherwood, Stockton South, Broxtowe, Lancaster and Fleetwood, Amber Valley, Waveney, Wolverhampton South West, Morecambe and Lunesdale, Carlisle, Stroud, Weaver Vale, Lincoln, Plymouth, Sutton and Devonport, Dewsbury, Warrington South, Bedford, Brighton Kemptown, Pudsey, Brentford and Isleworth, Hove, Enfield North, Hastings and Rye, Ipswich, Halesowen and Rowley Regis, Nuneaton, Gloucester, Northampton North, Bury North, Kingswood, Erewash, Blackpool North and Cleveleys, City of Chester, Croydon Central, Worcester, Keighley, Wirral West, Cannock Chase, Harrow East, Loughborough, Warwick and Leamington, South Swindon, Ealing Central and Acton, Pendle, Stevenage, Elmet and Rothwell, Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire.

Re: Wednesday 29th April 2015

Posted: Wed 29 Apr, 2015 5:33 pm
by TechnicalEphemera
ephemerid wrote:Hello Primecut.

I think we need Anatoly or TE someone who understands this stuff (there are a few here) to answer that.

Hopefully they'll be along later to help you.

Meanwhile, have a pew and a nice cup of Lavazza espresso. I've made it special, like.
I've got some lemon chessecake too (I ate the last of the polenta cake, and I am not sorry)
I don't understand sampling that well, it is a dark art.

Somebody will have a carefully calculated representative sample, and they will try and poll people who match that sample. But what those profiles look like I don't have a clue.

The next problem any polling company faces is compensating for honesty ( the shy ToryKip problem) and they all make assumptions on turnout, which can be problematic. I wonder what is being assumed for student voters in Sheffield Hallam. Traditionally these folks didn't turn out, but if they feel particularly motivated the differential turnout could sink him.

Re: Wednesday 29th April 2015

Posted: Wed 29 Apr, 2015 5:36 pm
by pk1
rebeccariots2 wrote:
RobertSnozers wrote: Apropos of nothing, a Green leaflet came through my door yesterday. On it, the candidate listed among his interests/achievements 'writing fiction e-books including an autobiography'.

???
Thank you. That has just made me cackle out loud. And I had come in to the house very down after having one of those sudden moments of recollection and grief that hit you like a sledgehammer - driving up to the cottage, opening my car door and there was no Musica running down the path and pushing her nose into my lap to say hello, can we go for a walk, now .... why does grief do that, come out of nowhere like that?
I don't know why but can testify that it absolutely does & by god, it's as if you've been catapulted back to *that* day.

:hug:

Re: Wednesday 29th April 2015

Posted: Wed 29 Apr, 2015 5:36 pm
by tinybgoat
pk1 wrote:
tinybgoat wrote:
Spacedone wrote: Wait... what?
Hmm,Maybe it's a phone poll, and nobody under age of 24 has a landline??
Or they were all out leafleting
:?
It was an online poll, not phone.
I have no idea then.
Have just noticed that there's a 1 pt lead
labour over liberal for local candidate

And a 7 pt lead for national party

That doesn't make sense!

Re: Wednesday 29th April 2015

Posted: Wed 29 Apr, 2015 5:37 pm
by rebeccariots2
Please can somebody stop Michael Gove saying 'eye Ron clad' about their ****ing pledge.

It's iron clad - and the r is almost silent. I want to go and scream in a broom cupboard everytime I hear it repeated.

Right. Got that off my chest. Until the next time ...

Re: Wednesday 29th April 2015

Posted: Wed 29 Apr, 2015 5:38 pm
by citizenJA
A ComRes/ITV poll of the 50 most marginal Conservative-held seats show Cameron’s party is trailing Labour by three points collectively across the seats.

The study showed Labour currently stand at 40% in these key battleground seats, with the Conservatives on 37%. ComRes suggested that if those results were replicated on election day with a uniformswing across all these constituencies, it would see Labour win 40 of the 50 seats.

Andrew Hawkins, chairman of ComRes, said: “There are crumbs of comfort for both main parties. For the Conservatives there is enough queasiness about Labour doing a deal with the SNP to shift potential votes, and for Labour there is the comfort of overtaking their main rivals across these key marginals.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/liv ... f1d796065d" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
(my bold)
Wait - what?
Tory comfort because of 'queasiness about Labour doing deal with the SNP'?
Is that a statistical term I'm not aware of?
'Queasiness'?
How was that measured, please?

"...for Labour there is the comfort of overtaking their main rivals across these key marginals"
Yes, it's comforting for Labour, how necessary was it to even write that?
Because it was real important to get that balance just right between the Tory comfort 'queasiness' factor & the Labour comfort of leading?

Re: Wednesday 29th April 2015

Posted: Wed 29 Apr, 2015 5:42 pm
by pk1
Just picked this up on UKPR:

UKIP politician David Coburn has been indefinitely banned from Wikipedia after attempting to alter an article about himself 69 times in six days.

:lol:

Re: Wednesday 29th April 2015

Posted: Wed 29 Apr, 2015 5:46 pm
by tinybgoat
citizenJA wrote:
A ComRes/ITV poll of the 50 most marginal Conservative-held seats show Cameron’s party is trailing Labour by three points collectively across the seats.

The study showed Labour currently stand at 40% in these key battleground seats, with the Conservatives on 37%. ComRes suggested that if those results were replicated on election day with a uniformswing across all these constituencies, it would see Labour win 40 of the 50 seats.

Andrew Hawkins, chairman of ComRes, said: “There are crumbs of comfort for both main parties. For the Conservatives there is enough queasiness about Labour doing a deal with the SNP to shift potential votes, and for Labour there is the comfort of overtaking their main rivals across these key marginals.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/liv ... f1d796065d" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
(my bold)
Wait - what?
Tory comfort because of 'queasiness about Labour doing deal with the SNP'?
Is that a statistical term I'm not aware of?
'Queasiness'?
How was that measured, please?

"...for Labour there is the comfort of overtaking their main rivals across these key marginals"
Yes, it's comforting for Labour, how necessary was it to even write that?
Because it was real important to get that balance just right between the Tory comfort 'queasiness' factor & the Labour comfort of leading?
Is it the number going green?

Re: Wednesday 29th April 2015

Posted: Wed 29 Apr, 2015 5:48 pm
by ohsocynical
pk1 wrote:Just picked this up on UKPR:

UKIP politician David Coburn has been indefinitely banned from Wikipedia after attempting to alter an article about himself 69 times in six days.

:lol:
Perhaps it was his punctuation.

Re: Wednesday 29th April 2015

Posted: Wed 29 Apr, 2015 5:50 pm
by Tizme1
Tubby Isaacs wrote:Image

Come on let's squeeze those Greens!
When it comes to Sheffield Hallam I've got to admit to being a bit torn. Naturally I want the Greens to keep their deposit and we're close. But it's so close between Coppard and Clegg. I think in this instance I'm going to have to root for Coppard and if the Greens lose their deposit, I'll consider we're taking one for the 'team'. :o

Re: Wednesday 29th April 2015

Posted: Wed 29 Apr, 2015 5:54 pm
by PorFavor
@ ohsocynical and for anyone here who cares about commas . . .

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P_i1xk07o4g

Re: Wednesday 29th April 2015

Posted: Wed 29 Apr, 2015 6:01 pm
by letsskiptotheleft
I have stopped "following" Smithson and Ashcroft on twitter, I am pretty much polled out, it's getting to the point I am having nervous anticipation at the thought of another one, if such a thing exists.

A week to go and the Tories have nothing left to chuck in Labours direction, the shit hasn't stuck, but Christ it is too close to call and I no longer have the nerve to think about polls. Of course much depends on the Hallam result, Clegg's instincts are Tory, and he would undoubtedly favour them in a hotch potch coalition.

Re: Wednesday 29th April 2015

Posted: Wed 29 Apr, 2015 6:01 pm
by PorFavor
Evening summary
Nadia Khomami

Nadia Khomami

There’s less than two weeks to go to the election (Guardian Election Blog)
Well, yes. I suppose, technically, that's true but . . . .




Edited
Comma!

Re: Wednesday 29th April 2015

Posted: Wed 29 Apr, 2015 6:03 pm
by utopiandreams
danesclose wrote:Following Ed Miliband's interview with Russell Brand, David Cameron decided he'd better "get down with Da kidz"

[youtube]gyYFeHOvAv4[/youtube]
Thanks, danesclose, that's put the kibosh on what I had in mind. I was thinking of somebody/something rather childish for Cameron to be interviewed by/on. Seems he's already done so, I should have guessed. As I said on the G, I deliberately avoided Roberts and maiden name in my Hilda story because it all seemed too credible.

Re: Wednesday 29th April 2015

Posted: Wed 29 Apr, 2015 6:07 pm
by citizenJA
PorFavor wrote:
Evening summary
Nadia Khomami

Nadia Khomami

There’s less than two weeks to go to the election (Guardian Election Blog)
Well, yes. I suppose, technically, that's true but . . . .




Edited
Comma!
General Election Poll Prepared on behalf of MAY 2015 27/04/15
Tables prepared by BMG Research on behalf of the MAY 2015 Page 4
Table 1
Q1. Base weights
Q1. The next General Election is now less than 2 weeks away

http://www.bmgresearch.co.uk/wp-content ... ntions.pdf" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
From the BMG research/poll thing.

Re: Wednesday 29th April 2015

Posted: Wed 29 Apr, 2015 6:09 pm
by rebeccariots2
Tim Ross ‏@TimRossDT 1h1 hour ago
Lib Dems stressing that Ashcroft doesn't name the candidates in Sheffield Hallam poll. The party's polling includes names and puts Clegg up.
I think you really only need the first three words of that tweet ...

Re: Wednesday 29th April 2015

Posted: Wed 29 Apr, 2015 6:09 pm
by Spacedone
Tizme1 wrote:
Tubby Isaacs wrote:Image

Come on let's squeeze those Greens!
When it comes to Sheffield Hallam I've got to admit to being a bit torn. Naturally I want the Greens to keep their deposit and we're close. But it's so close between Coppard and Clegg. I think in this instance I'm going to have to root for Coppard and if the Greens lose their deposit, I'll consider we're taking one for the 'team'. :o
As with everything it's an individual personal choice as to whether tactically vote or not and I know that some Green voters (like a friend of mine) are adamant that they'll be voting Green regardless because that's what they believe in, as is their right.

But in this particular case I really really hope that those people vote for Coppard. Clegg remaining in power might be a big factor in whether or not the Lib-Dems try to prop up the Conservatives and the Tories know it, which is why some of their own party member have been calling on their own voters to defend Clegg.

Re: Wednesday 29th April 2015

Posted: Wed 29 Apr, 2015 6:10 pm
by letsskiptotheleft
Nigel Lawson in tomorrow Spectator questioning the Tories spending plans, expect it to be virtually ignored by the BBC.

Re: Wednesday 29th April 2015

Posted: Wed 29 Apr, 2015 6:12 pm
by utopiandreams
ephemerid wrote:
seeingclearly wrote:I've seen a fair few posts saying we haven't seen a politician like this for a long time.
Good.

It's about time - some of us have been saying he has the makings of a ( possibly great, in time) statesman.

Nice to see a few more people finally catching on.....
'And on that score, ephemerid, something that struck me in the last few days was Cameron blathering on about stupid ideas Ed had gathered from around the world (can't remember exactly what he said). Whatever, my feeling at the time was international discourse and cooperation is exactly what is needed in politics today, to tackle corporations for one, and just look how well our Dave is received overseas.

Re: Wednesday 29th April 2015

Posted: Wed 29 Apr, 2015 6:12 pm
by PorFavor
rebeccariots2 wrote:
Tim Ross ‏@TimRossDT 1h1 hour ago
Lib Dems stressing that Ashcroft doesn't name the candidates in Sheffield Hallam poll. The party's polling includes names and puts Clegg up.
I think you really only need the first three words of that tweet ...

Oh, very good!

Re: Wednesday 29th April 2015

Posted: Wed 29 Apr, 2015 6:15 pm
by Swarthlander
PorFavor wrote:
Evening summary
Nadia Khomami

Nadia Khomami

There’s less than two weeks to go to the election (Guardian Election Blog)
Well, yes. I suppose, technically, that's true but . . . .
Wow! And I thought there was just over a week to go. :?

eevning oll. :D

Re: Wednesday 29th April 2015

Posted: Wed 29 Apr, 2015 6:23 pm
by letsskiptotheleft
Guardian asking for Mike Smith's opinion on Miliband again..


Fuck off, go and have a game of tennis with Cliff Richard, you knob!!

And, breathe easy now girl.