FlyTheNest

SNP supporters in meltdown if Jim Murphy gets elected.

StephenDolan wrote:

Tubby Isaacs wrote:Load of marginal polls out at 4.

http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2015/05/mi ... marginals/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Looks like Croydon could be going to the wire then. Fingers crossed for Wirral West, would love to see here out on her ear; and I am delighted with the prospect of Stewart Jackson being given the boot.

bit of fun from Sky News:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KyISprZ ... e=youtu.be

Croydon Central is disappointing (but not sure I really believe it)

Pudsey and Stourbridge are both winnable on those figures if Labour's ground game is good - Jim Murphy might yet hold on as well?

AnatolyKasparov wrote:Croydon Central is disappointing (but not sure I really believe it)

Pudsey and Stourbridge are both winnable on those figures if Labour's ground game is good - Jim Murphy might yet hold on as well?

Stourbridge is probably not winnable. A fairly sensible Tory MP.

Has Ashcroft shown any slim majority Labour seats likely to fall to the Conservatives in marginal polling?

Tubby Isaacs wrote:Labour Candidate in Norwich North is an uber-Blairite. Wish we could lose her and save another.

Jessica Asato is the acceptable face of the Progress tendency IMO.

She is also the (now sadly widowed) d-i-l of the one and only David Butler, which should count for something.

Asato wrote to Burnham telling him he was talking silly nonsense about making the NHS preferred provider. Don't trust her at all.

I'm sorry for her personal tragedy, of course.

Well, Labour either got double my donation or none of it. The site couldn't process it.

Is it busier today?

PorFavor wrote:Has anyone, in the light of the Guardian's coming out for Labour, ventured to look at any of the posts below the line (eg on the Election Blog)? I suppose I really should lino my girders and have a mooch about there myself, if I want to know how it's gone down.

Nope, not yet.

StephenDolan wrote:Has Ashcroft shown any slim majority Labour seats likely to fall to the Conservatives in marginal polling?

I haven't seen a single one.
I've seen several falling to Labour.

Adam Wagner ‏@AdamWagner1 34m34 minutes ago
Ipso rejects complaints Katie Hopkins’ migrants column was discriminatory - out of scope of Editors’ Code http://www.theguardian.com/media/2015/m ... column-sun" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; …

Ipso seems just as toothless, gutless and craven as the last press self regulatory system.

RobertSnozers wrote:

StephenDolan wrote:Has Ashcroft shown any slim majority Labour seats likely to fall to the Conservatives in marginal polling?

I believe he is more or less resigned to not gaining any seats off Labour, or he'd be making a lot more noise. Instead, he's mainly talking about holding onto seats that Labour might take off them and concentrating on seats the Tories might take from the LibDems (his view is that the Tories are doing better at holding onto marginal seats than uniform swing suggests, but the LibDems are doing better at holding onto their seats, restricting the Tories from getting out of jail).

Thanks RS and CJA.
Cameron and his 'only 23 more seats' is sounding more foolish by the day.

James Tapsfield ‏@JamesTapsfield 3m3 minutes ago
James Tapsfield retweeted Jo Swinson
Hugh Grant and now John Cleese. Lib Dems surely unstoppable in Scotland now

That's mean.

There was an Ashcroft poll last year showing Labour and Tories tied in Soton Itchen, but (as he admitted) having it out of student term time possibly skewed the figures. His most recent poll there (in March I think) had Labour clearly ahead.

Other seats mentioned as possible Tory "against the grain" wins include Hampstead/Kilburn (Labour well ahead in an Ashcroft poll last summer but nothing since) and Birmingham Northfield (no surveys I know of, annoyingly) Some Tory fantasists optimists still think they have a chance against Ed Balls, too

frightful_oik wrote:bit of fun from Sky News:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KyISprZ ... e=youtu.be

Sheer genius coming out from their team! Whoever is actually making these for Sky News should be up for an award.

Eric Joyce has been found guilty of assaulting two teenage boys in a London shop last year.

rebeccariots2 wrote:

pk1 wrote:Remarkably sullen tweet by Ashcroft:

@LordAshcroft · 2m 2 minutes ago
Waiting now for the BBC to formally endorse Labour....

Sullen and way off the mark.

Is the man that stupid? The BBC can't endorse any political party, regardless of how it currently reports news & it's certainly not preferential toward Labour. What is Ashcroft's problem?

Survation/@dailymirror (change vs Apr 23)

LAB 34 (+5)
CON 33 (nc)
UKIP 16 (-2)
LD 9 (-1)
SNP 4 (nc)
GRE 3 (-1)

citizenJA wrote:

rebeccariots2 wrote:

pk1 wrote:Remarkably sullen tweet by Ashcroft:

Sullen and way off the mark.

Is the man that stupid? The BBC can't endorse any political party, regardless of how it currently reports news & it's certainly not preferential toward Labour. What is Ashcroft's problem?

I honestly think he throws in these asides on occasion to show he is still loyal to "the team".

AnatolyKasparov wrote:

citizenJA wrote:

rebeccariots2 wrote: Sullen and way off the mark.

Is the man that stupid? The BBC can't endorse any political party, regardless of how it currently reports news & it's certainly not preferential toward Labour. What is Ashcroft's problem?

I honestly think he throws in these asides on occasion to show he is still loyal to "the team".

Stupidity it is then, in my opinion. I don't have the money or resources to belong to Ashcroft's Tory club. Edited to add - I didn't get my heart removed either.

@pk1

I'll be with you in spirit (I wish I could be there in person).

LadyCentauria wrote:

frightful_oik wrote:bit of fun from Sky News:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KyISprZ ... e=youtu.be

Sheer genius coming out from their team! Whoever is actually making these for Sky News should be up for an award.

That is great. Thank you.

(The use of Leanne Wood is utterly epic ... worth it for that alone.)

pk1 wrote:Survation/@dailymirror (change vs Apr 23)

LAB 34 (+5)
CON 33 (nc)
UKIP 16 (-2)
LD 9 (-1)
SNP 4 (nc)
GRE 3 (-1)

Hurrah!

I hope he's wrong about Battersea. It's one of our neighbouring seats, was my home for nearly eight years, and Labour has got one heck of a ground campaign under way, there, with a lot of funding going into it. I'd love to see Will Martindale win the seat.

rebeccariots2 wrote:

Adam Wagner ‏@AdamWagner1 34m34 minutes ago
Ipso rejects complaints Katie Hopkins’ migrants column was discriminatory - out of scope of Editors’ Code http://www.theguardian.com/media/2015/m ... column-sun" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; …

Ipso seems just as toothless, gutless and craven as the last press self regulatory system.

Funny that....

Emily Ashton ‏@elashton 20m20 minutes ago
A teen just dropped his jeans in front of Nick Clegg after asking for a selfie http://www.buzzfeed.com/emilyashton/a-t ... nick-clegg" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; … (Pic: PA)

RobertSnozers wrote:

TheGrimSqueaker wrote:

StephenDolan wrote: http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2015/05/mi ... marginals/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Looks like Croydon could be going to the wire then. Fingers crossed for Wirral West, would love to see here out on her ear; and I am delighted with the prospect of Stewart Jackson being given the boot.

In East Renfrewshire, Jim Murphy has narrowed the gap from nine points to three since my previous poll earlier this month. This seems largely down to Conservative voters – the Tory share is down five points, and Labour’s up five, since my last survey, and remaining Conservatives are less likely to rule out moving to Labour than in most seats. Nearly a quarter of those who voted Conservative in the constituency in 2010 now say they plan to vote for Jim Murphy.

Unfortunately for the Tories, Labour voters seem unwilling to return the favour in Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & Tweeddale, where the SNP have extended their lead from two points to eleven. Only 7% of 2010 Labour voters have switched to the Tories, and 82% of current Labour supporters rule out doing so.

I don't particularly care about him winning, but would be hilarious to see him "survive with Tory votes". Which are of course totally different from vacuous "none of the above" voters who are going to the SNP from the Lib Dems.

PorFavor wrote:From an e-mail just received from Ed Miliband\Labour:

"I will be joined [in Brighton] by a very special guest who will come out and endorse us on Monday."

The suspense is killing me already.

LadyCentauria wrote:I hope he's wrong about Battersea. It's one of our neighbouring seats, was my home for nearly eight years, and Labour has got one heck of a ground campaign under way, there, with a lot of funding going into it. I'd love to see Will Martindale win the seat.

Battersea is hugely gentrified, probably even in comparison to 2010. Rare London seat probably trending Tory.

Surprised at the margin though.

RobertSnozers wrote:

pk1 wrote:Eric Joyce has been found guilty of assaulting two teenage boys in a London shop last year.

What?? The trial has only just opened. The prosecution has only just put its case. They can't have a verdict already can they? Did he change his plea?

Nope, just found guilty at Magistrates Court:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-32557123" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Tubby Isaacs wrote:It's her parents' car, sadly.

Am I getting too cynical ?
Anyone can buy an aerosol, Tory MP included, particularly one worried about where the lost Lib Dem votes may be going.

michael ‏@hannahr391956 6 mins6 minutes ago
@Hughesy53

Cath Shuttleworth works for bbc breakfast as an analyst

yahyah wrote:

Tubby Isaacs wrote:It's her parents' car, sadly.

Am I getting too cynical ?
Anyone can buy an aerosol, Tory MP included, particularly one worried about where the lost Lib Dem votes may be going.

If you're cynical, so am I. It's the first thing I thought looking at her face photographed next to the car.

ohsocynical wrote:michael ‏@hannahr391956 6 mins6 minutes ago
@Hughesy53

Cath Shuttleworth works for bbc breakfast as an analyst

Might help explain its pro-government bias, then - its business coverage especially is often just straightforward propaganda.

Anne Begg ‏@annebegg 7m7 minutes ago
“@MidWalesMike: Victory for Vox Political: DWP ordered to give details of benefit-related deaths http://wp.me/p4Sru1-32H" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; ” Excellent news!

Good ruling.

But bet they still won't disclose them. They will appeal and appeal again, fight to the absolute end, not to release information they don't want to.

diGriz wrote:Well, Labour either got double my donation or none of it. The site couldn't process it.

Is it busier today?

We've go to bloody win, the amount of dosh we've stumped up

Haven't been a Labour member during an election since my long gone yoof.
It is very expensive, and like Cats Protection with little sad kitties, they know how to hook you.

Anne McGuire retweeted
Bradendavy ‏@BradenDavy 15m15 minutes ago
Ashcroft poll in Jim Murphys seat shows 18-25 yr olds clearly rejecting Nationalism!
#Labour 46%
#SNP 29%
#Tory 22%
#Green 2%
#GE15 #GE2015

That rather bears out Anatoly's point earlier. Good stuff.

Peter Jukes @peterjukes · 23m 23 minutes ago
Every reviewer noted the passion and anger of these 'members of the public': I feel completely duped

These Tory dirty tricks are repellent.
As one of the retweets on Jukes' Twitter page points out -'Imagine if these were Lab rather than Tory "undecideds" - press anti-BBC vendetta wd now be in full swing'.

We have got to win next week.

AnatolyKasparov wrote:Croydon Central is disappointing (but not sure I really believe it)

Pudsey and Stourbridge are both winnable on those figures if Labour's ground game is good - Jim Murphy might yet hold on as well?

Croydon Central is an odd constituency. The north is very urban, lots of terraced houses and small council estates, the south is commuter land built among golf courses and parklands; you can almost draw a line across it, with the north (places like Addiscombe) being fairly solid Labour and the south (Shirley and Fairfield) voting Tory. The wild card is New Addington, a former council estate (and, to be frank, one of the grimmest places I have ever been to) swings all over the place; used to be BNP, probably now a mixture of UKIP, working class Tories and Labour supporters. It all depends what happens to that UKIP vote, if it really is softening as much as Ashcroft says then it looks as though they are drifting to the Tories. But this is definitely, to borrow a phrase one where we shall see .......

Jim Murphy. I'm not the man's greatest fan, but there would be something quite satisfying about seeing him cling on, just to piss off all of those who forecast his downfall.

Iain Martin retweeted
Kayleigh Anne ‏@Ceilidhann 16m16 minutes ago
Kayleigh Anne retweeted Alan Roden
Can't imagine why he wouldn't want to do deals with SNP.

When was the last time there was such concerted, overt hassling of candidates / political party at an election? I haven't been aware of this sort of anger since Thatcher ... anyone?

From the Sparrow Blog:

There’s more to come from the Russell Brand Ed Miliband interview. Here’s the trailer for the video, which is due to be published on Monday.

Wonder if there is any connection with the enigmatic Brighton announcement?

[youtube]D7dtg4o-_-A[/youtube]

Catherine Shuttleworth is the Director of Get Savvy Marketing Ltd so I doubt very much that she & the BBC Breakfast lady are one & the same.

http://companycheck.co.uk/company/05822 ... ecretaries" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Let's stick to the facts & not get involved in telling untruths about others, even if they are our political opponents !

rebeccariots2 wrote:

Protestors At Miliband Glasgow Rally.jpg

Iain Martin retweeted
Kayleigh Anne ‏@Ceilidhann 16m16 minutes ago
Kayleigh Anne retweeted Alan Roden
Can't imagine why he wouldn't want to do deals with SNP.

When was the last time there was such concerted, overt hassling of candidates / political party at an election? I haven't been aware of this sort of anger since Thatcher ... anyone?

Arthur Miller's the Crucible but without the Claviceps purpurea theory?

The extremist wing of the SNP (most of it ?) have to push the Red Tory twollop.

It'll be their excuse if their voting out Labour MPs means a Tory government gets in.
''Make's nae difference if we get the Red or Blue Tories'' will be their bull**** response.

pk1 wrote:Catherine Shuttleworth is the Director of Get Savvy Marketing Ltd so I doubt very much that she & the BBC Breakfast lady are one & the same.

http://companycheck.co.uk/company/05822 ... ecretaries" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Let's stick to the facts & not get involved in telling untruths about others, even if they are our political opponents !

TheGrimSqueaker wrote:From the Sparrow Blog:

There’s more to come from the Russell Brand Ed Miliband interview. Here’s the trailer for the video, which is due to be published on Monday.

Wonder if there is any connection with the enigmatic Brighton announcement?

[youtube]D7dtg4o-_-A[/youtube]

He's endorsed Caroline Lucas though. But he didn't endorse the Greens as a party so maybe it is him.

Would prefer it were someone a little more credible to be honest.

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/robin-l ... 87216.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;?
Huff Post on the Great Big Tory Scum Lie

pk1 wrote:Catherine Shuttleworth is the Director of Get Savvy Marketing Ltd so I doubt very much that she & the BBC Breakfast lady are one & the same.

http://companycheck.co.uk/company/05822 ... ecretaries" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Let's stick to the facts & not get involved in telling untruths about others, even if they are our political opponents !

You may well be right. But some BBC staff have their salaries paid into companies to save paying so much tax ?

May be a set up like that ?

But commend your desire for the truth.
It's easy to go in the wrong direction with these things.

tinyclanger2 wrote:

rebeccariots2 wrote:

Protestors At Miliband Glasgow Rally.jpg

Iain Martin retweeted
Kayleigh Anne ‏@Ceilidhann 16m16 minutes ago
Kayleigh Anne retweeted Alan Roden
Can't imagine why he wouldn't want to do deals with SNP.

When was the last time there was such concerted, overt hassling of candidates / political party at an election? I haven't been aware of this sort of anger since Thatcher ... anyone?

Arthur Miller's the Crucible but without the Claviceps purpurea theory?

You got me there for a moment - had to visit wikipedia (don't worry I wasn't adjusting any biogs of my opponents).

Claviceps purpurea is an ergot fungus that grows on the ears of rye and related cereal and forage plants. Consumption of grains or seeds contaminated with the survival structure of this fungus, the ergot sclerotium, can cause ergotism in humans and other mammals.[1][2] C. purpurea most commonly affects outcrossing species such as rye (its most common host), as well as triticale, wheat and barley. It affects oats only rarely

Do you think it's mass 'ergotism' that's got Scotland going then?