FlyTheNest

frightful_oik wrote:

SpinningHugo wrote:

pk1 wrote:So, if EdM resigns, who do you want to take over ?

Personally I'm not sure there is anybody in the Shadow Cab that I'd vote for.

I would vote for Dan Jarvis though.

We needed 30+ seats that went Tory. We didn't get them because of the leader and the political strategy adopted.

Charlie Whelan, and others, lost this in 2010 with their selfish naivety.

Umunna is the best bet, or possibly even Creasy (but I don't think her personal circumstances allow.

If it is Burnham, Labour has given up trying to win.

Ridiculous! We have to analyse why the right won. It's complex but one factor is that the electorate aren't interested in politics. Another is that the media are owned by the right. Ummuna won't solve either of those problems. He just regurgitates soundbites.

tinyclanger2 wrote:I hope this isn't a post-mortem (if it is apologies). I think that the problem is not Labour - and certainly not Ed - but the fact that the political landscape has changed so much. We need to adapt to that. Grassroots engagement, the single issue approach. And not dividing ourselves. We need all of us non-Tories to form a strong anti-bastard coalition to fight this strategically, rather than continue to compete with each other.

SpinningHugo wrote:

AngryAsWell wrote:

yahyah wrote:Please can we hold back on ditching Ed talk until later in the day.

It just feels too raw just now.

Agree, I don't want a different leader.

I do. I think even Miliband will now accept that that is what we need.

The failure here is of Labour to beat the Conservatives … Labour has barely increased the share of the vote.

pk1 wrote:

LadyCentauria wrote:

RobertSnozers wrote:Is it too much to ask that we leave the 'what Labour did wrong' and 'who follows Ed' for another day?

I second that!

Yes you're right & I should never have asked the question but it was done in the best interests of the party because the last thing we need is a prolonged leadership contest

tinyclanger2 wrote:So Anatoly and Hugo - what's a realistic outlook for maximising any potential advantage of the current situation (slimness of Tory majority, etc), while minimising any long-term irreverisble (eg: Brexit) damage of the Tory/SNP partnership made in hell.

TechnicalEphemera wrote:

SpinningHugo wrote:

TechnicalEphemera wrote:
I think we lost because of the SNP factor.

.

I think it is very important that this view doesn't take hold (LIvingstone peddling it now).

Add on every Scottish seat, and we still lose.

We needed a bigger tent. not an even smaller one than those who wanted a break from Blair voted for in 2010.

You are missing the point. It isn't the Scottish seats, it is worse.

The Tories were able to convince Southern England that Labour meant an SNP coalition and the Scots would steal all their money.

It was toxic, it was all the media talked about and in seats like Nuneaton it heavily influenced voters. How much airtime did Sturgeon get in this election for a party not represented in most seats.

SpinningHugo wrote:

tinyclanger2 wrote:So Anatoly and Hugo - what's a realistic outlook for maximising any potential advantage of the current situation (slimness of Tory majority, etc), while minimising any long-term irreverisble (eg: Brexit) damage of the Tory/SNP partnership made in hell.

I am afraid I only have downsides.

First the Tories can get through boundary changes: making victory even harder.

Second they can, at a minimum, get through the Smith Commission reforms, excluding Scottish votes in rest of UK matters where devolved.

It really matters whether the majority is 2 or 8.

If it is 2, we can stop things like repeal of the Human Rights Act.

If not, not.

tinyclanger2 wrote:

The failure here is of Labour to beat the Conservatives … Labour has barely increased the share of the vote.

Sturgeon. It's all Labour's fault.
I know you here predicted it, but Jesus wept.

howsillyofme1 wrote:Morning all

Despite the shock, sadness and despair I would still say we have got to carry on and grow this magnificent forum.....the discourse brightens my day and it reminds me of the good we have in the country - despite what certain of our fellow countrymen have done

We cannot afford to have a time of introspection - we need to ensure that the leader for the next 5 years is in place and supported within weeks, not months. I would hope to still see Ed but if that is not possible then go quickly and agree on 5 points to hold the Tories to account on!

There is space for positivity...the majority will be slim, the Tories will tear themselves apart over Europe...it is unavoidable I think and they have made a lot of promises

If the supposition is right that it was fear of the SNP (and it will be interesting to compare LE and GE votes to get some inkling of that) then perhaps the electorate are not so wedded to the Tory plans and could turn....

The fightback has to start on Monday, the months of waiting after 2010 helped sow the seeds for yesterday and the same mistake should not be made now. If Ed goes then I suggest Jarvis...not the experience but the Tories will be petrified of someone with his background

howsillyofme1 wrote:Morning all

Despite the shock, sadness and despair I would still say we have got to carry on and grow this magnificent forum.....the discourse brightens my day and it reminds me of the good we have in the country - despite what certain of our fellow countrymen have done

We cannot afford to have a time of introspection - we need to ensure that the leader for the next 5 years is in place and supported within weeks, not months. I would hope to still see Ed but if that is not possible then go quickly and agree on 5 points to hold the Tories to account on!

There is space for positivity...the majority will be slim, the Tories will tear themselves apart over Europe...it is unavoidable I think and they have made a lot of promises

If the supposition is right that it was fear of the SNP (and it will be interesting to compare LE and GE votes to get some inkling of that) then perhaps the electorate are not so wedded to the Tory plans and could turn....

The fightback has to start on Monday, the months of waiting after 2010 helped sow the seeds for yesterday and the same mistake should not be made now. If Ed goes then I suggest Jarvis...not the experience but the Tories will be petrified of someone with his background

SpinningHugo wrote:You could have replayed Livingstone from 92 alongside his line from 2015. The same analysis. Wrong then, wrong now.

AngryAsWell wrote:

howsillyofme1 wrote:Morning all

Despite the shock, sadness and despair I would still say we have got to carry on and grow this magnificent forum.....the discourse brightens my day and it reminds me of the good we have in the country - despite what certain of our fellow countrymen have done

We cannot afford to have a time of introspection - we need to ensure that the leader for the next 5 years is in place and supported within weeks, not months. I would hope to still see Ed but if that is not possible then go quickly and agree on 5 points to hold the Tories to account on!

There is space for positivity...the majority will be slim, the Tories will tear themselves apart over Europe...it is unavoidable I think and they have made a lot of promises

If the supposition is right that it was fear of the SNP (and it will be interesting to compare LE and GE votes to get some inkling of that) then perhaps the electorate are not so wedded to the Tory plans and could turn....

The fightback has to start on Monday, the months of waiting after 2010 helped sow the seeds for yesterday and the same mistake should not be made now. If Ed goes then I suggest Jarvis...not the experience but the Tories will be petrified of someone with his background

If Labour get rid of Ed I will leave the party. Simple as that.

yahyah wrote:

AngryAsWell wrote:

frightful_oik wrote: Ridiculous! We have to analyse why the right won. It's complex but one factor is that the electorate aren't interested in politics. Another is that the media are owned by the right. Ummuna won't solve either of those problems. He just regurgitates soundbites.

And - tin foil or not - I truly believe this election has been fixed.

We need someone with the brainpower [not me obviously] to work out turnouts & check how many people may have not been registered.

Maybe Anatoly or someone can provide some more idea of why the polls why so wrong, but if voter registration was a problem then the polls would be as they were, yet the result as it was - if that makes sense.

AngryAsWell wrote:

howsillyofme1 wrote:Morning all

Despite the shock, sadness and despair I would still say we have got to carry on and grow this magnificent forum.....the discourse brightens my day and it reminds me of the good we have in the country - despite what certain of our fellow countrymen have done

We cannot afford to have a time of introspection - we need to ensure that the leader for the next 5 years is in place and supported within weeks, not months. I would hope to still see Ed but if that is not possible then go quickly and agree on 5 points to hold the Tories to account on!

There is space for positivity...the majority will be slim, the Tories will tear themselves apart over Europe...it is unavoidable I think and they have made a lot of promises

If the supposition is right that it was fear of the SNP (and it will be interesting to compare LE and GE votes to get some inkling of that) then perhaps the electorate are not so wedded to the Tory plans and could turn....

The fightback has to start on Monday, the months of waiting after 2010 helped sow the seeds for yesterday and the same mistake should not be made now. If Ed goes then I suggest Jarvis...not the experience but the Tories will be petrified of someone with his background

If Labour get rid of Ed I will leave the party. Simple as that.

tinyclanger2 wrote:I hope this isn't a post-mortem (if it is apologies). I think that the problem is not Labour - and certainly not Ed - but the fact that the political landscape has changed so much. We need to adapt to that. Grassroots engagement, the single issue approach. And not dividing ourselves. We need all of us non-Tories to form a strong anti-bastard coalition to fight this strategically, rather than continue to compete with each other.

TechnicalEphemera wrote:I think the polls are wrong because the pollsters don't know what they are doing.

I think they adjust samples using snake oil. Internet polling and phone polling seem equally useless.

The entire industry is finished this morning.

yahyah wrote:Just to add...in my constituency the council handled the Coalition's changes in voting registration very well. Labour here got 9.7%, only 5.8% in 2010.

Could that be a factor ?

adam wrote:

TechnicalEphemera wrote:Big picture, the coalition government has taken a hammering, 50 odd seats down. The fact the Tories have managed to cling to power won't change that. People are going to get very angry at Cameron very quickly (I give it 6 months).

But the government won't give a fuck. As someone's said ATL at the graun, with a majority the convention is that they can force through any manifesto commitment against the house of lords. They will do what the fuck they like and people are sheep. I give up.

daydreamer wrote:

yahyah wrote:Just to add...in my constituency the council handled the Coalition's changes in voting registration very well. Labour here got 9.7%, only 5.8% in 2010.

Could that be a factor ?

Has I've been avoiding the MSM, could someone please tell me what Dan Jarvis' % was, up or down? I only mention as Barnsley Council, as far as I know, automatically registered everyone. Everyone I know didn't have to do a thing but still received their polling cards. If Yahyah's theory holds any water at all then his % will have gone up? Though, don't forget it is a safe Labour seat.

AngryAsWell wrote:David Green retweeted
Dr Katy Shaw ‏@DrKatyShaw · 3 hrs3 hours ago
Theresa May confirms Data Communications Bill will goahead now LibDems are gone - this is Snoopers Charter. Welcome to next 5 years #GE2015

NonOxCol wrote:Do what you like with the psephology, I just think Britain is full of selfish c***s. I suspected it was true for most of the last five years, now I know.

daydreamer wrote:

yahyah wrote:Just to add...in my constituency the council handled the Coalition's changes in voting registration very well. Labour here got 9.7%, only 5.8% in 2010.

Could that be a factor ?

Has I've been avoiding the MSM, could someone please tell me what Dan Jarvis' % was, up or down? I only mention as Barnsley Council, as far as I know, automatically registered everyone. Everyone I know didn't have to do a thing but still received their polling cards. If Yahyah's theory holds any water at all then his % will have gone up? Though, don't forget it is a safe Labour seat.

ohsocynical wrote:If they let Ed go...That's it for me.

Harry Leslie Smith ‏@Harryslaststand · 1h1 hour ago
70 years on Victory in Europe Day seems a little sadder to me b/c we have now officially replaced hope with fear #GE2015