FlyTheNest

Apologies (especially to Nadia Khomami). The Guardian's wonder-web flipped me back a week when I refreshed the page. Let's Do the Time Warp!

'Tories request Twitter IP logs in probe over sick 'Miliband Stroke' poster.'
http://politicalscrapbook.net/2015/04/t ... ke-poster/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

I'm increasing unimpressed re the Rahman verdict.

http://www.pressgazette.co.uk/downfall- ... ocal-media" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

"Gilligan told the court: “We also visited another address, 37 Cavell Street, E1, a small block of about twelve flats reserved for elderly Bangladeshi people, where I was told that a number of the residents had had their blank ballot papers taken from them against their will by supporters of Lutfur Rahman and Tower Hamlets First.”"

How on earth was this done? Some supporters of Rahman turned up as the voting slips came through just as the voting slips were being picked up by the elderly residents (en masse)?

rebeccariots2 wrote:Please can somebody stop Michael Gove saying 'eye Ron clad' about their ****ing pledge.

It's iron clad - and the r is almost silent. I want to go and scream in a broom cupboard everytime I hear it repeated.

Right. Got that off my chest. Until the next time ...

Maybe he's just trying to show how clever he is, rebecca, in that he really gets irony.

yahyah wrote:'Tories request Twitter IP logs in probe over sick 'Miliband Stroke' poster.'
http://politicalscrapbook.net/2015/04/t ... ke-poster/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Oh, very classy. Just goes to show the mentality we're dealing with. Really in the Grant Shapps league (which isn't a compliment, obvs).

Close your eyes letsskip.

Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB · 1h 1 hour ago
The 3.5% CON to LAB swing would just be enough to give LAB most seats even if all Scottish seats lost.

Spacedone wrote:

Tizme1 wrote:

Tubby Isaacs wrote:

Come on let's squeeze those Greens!

When it comes to Sheffield Hallam I've got to admit to being a bit torn. Naturally I want the Greens to keep their deposit and we're close. But it's so close between Coppard and Clegg. I think in this instance I'm going to have to root for Coppard and if the Greens lose their deposit, I'll consider we're taking one for the 'team'.

As with everything it's an individual personal choice as to whether tactically vote or not and I know that some Green voters (like a friend of mine) are adamant that they'll be voting Green regardless because that's what they believe in, as is their right.

But in this particular case I really really hope that those people vote for Coppard. Clegg remaining in power might be a big factor in whether or not the Lib-Dems try to prop up the Conservatives and the Tories know it, which is why some of their own party member have been calling on their own voters to defend Clegg.

Living in a 3 way marginal, I've used tactical voting on some occasions. But now I've got to a point where I'm no longer prepared to do that. That said, if I lived in Sheffield H, I probably would one last time........

Forgot my manners earlier and didn't say ''hello''.

And now I'm about to dash out the door to go to yet another hustings!

Just saw this (after my previous error re BMG poll probably should have kept quiet)

Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB 25m25 minutes ago
Given the debate of phone/online polls worth emphasising that ComRes most vulnerable CON marginals was by phone.

Forgot to say welcome to Primecut, so hi !

& with other elections we usually have an FTN predictions thread...anyone willing to go on record with what they think will happen ?

Hi Tizme.

We've not done enough to get your vote, that's down to us, no complaints at all. If we didn't want that to happen, we should have supported a voting system where preferences can be expressed (as for the Mayor of London).

There'll be quite a few less committed Greens though who'll be voting on the basis of something less specific (every party has voters like that). I was thinking of them really.

Interestingly in Scotland, if you compare support in Westminster elections with Holyrood regions, lots of Greens seem to be voting SNP in WM. If the same level of tactical voting could happen in England, it would be very handy.

Sheffield Hallam is indeed a special case ... a very special case.

I have to admit that Labour getting elected there would probably surpass most other defenestrations and outcomes (other than an overall win for Labour of course) ... because, as someone else said, so much hangs on whether Clegg retains his leadership or not ... and, I'm sorry, for pure payback for enabling the vile Health & Social Care Act and the Bedroom Tax. There are many more that could be added to the list but those two measures alone make him deserve to lose his seat ...

In defence of tactical voting, I did it in 1992, and it worked out wonderfully. Lib Dem elected, Major under serious pressure with a small majority (reduced to zilch by by-elections).

On the other hand, it went very badly in 2010 for lots of people.

Clegg accused Labour of 'po-faced piety'.
I am literally speechless with flabbergastedness. How can the Po-faced piety Meister point the finger at anyone else. And he's in the same party as Simon Hughes for pity's sake.

yahyah wrote:Forgot to say welcome to Primecut, so hi !

& with other elections we usually have an FTN predictions thread...anyone willing to go on record with what they think will happen ?

No.

Has anyone else who has donated to Oliver Coppard got their credit card or bank statements handy ?

I just noticed, when checking my credit card bill for errors etc. that all my other debits are labelled GBR for Great Britain but the payment I made to what I presume was Coppard's website has been paid to 'Paypal Sheffield DHA' in Luxembourg. I don't use Paypal.

I donated a while back to him also, didn't notice the payment details for that and have shredded my credit card bill for then.

yahyah wrote:Forgot to say welcome to Primecut, so hi !

& with other elections we usually have an FTN predictions thread...anyone willing to go on record with what they think will happen ?

I think we came up with the same figures (or close enough) for the Referendum. So - after you . . . .

letsskiptotheleft wrote:

yahyah wrote:Forgot to say welcome to Primecut, so hi !

& with other elections we usually have an FTN predictions thread...anyone willing to go on record with what they think will happen ?

No.

Oh go on Letsskip. You know you really really want to

PorFavor wrote:Apologies (especially to Nadia Khomami). The Guardian's wonder-web flipped me back a week when I refreshed the page. Let's Do the Time Warp!

And here I constructed a conspiracy of some sort having had just read the polling data information from a company I've never heard about until today!

Apologies.

Isabel Hardman ‏@IsabelHardman 4m4 minutes ago
If @tomgreatrexmp loses his seat next week, it’s a sign Scottish Labour are screwed. Here’s how his campaign is going http://specc.ie/1DWyKTy" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Greatrex sounds like a good MP - and he's been really active in opposing / exposing the WCA flaws and injustices.

The description of his door step campaigning reminds me of our candidate - he also engages in long discussions with people over local issues and seems to have the details at his fingertips - very reassuring. Makes me have faith that he will be a very good constituency MP if elected.

Will have a think about my prediction PF.

Good night all.
Have to go to demolish a huge amount of roast potatoes.
Was distracted by the Clegg Hallam & Farage Thanet polls earlier and for some reason cooked triple portions.

rearofthestore wrote:Just saw this (after my previous error re BMG poll probably should have kept quiet)

Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB 25m25 minutes ago
Given the debate of phone/online polls worth emphasising that ComRes most vulnerable CON marginals was by phone.

Interesting!

yahyah wrote:Will have a think about my prediction PF.

Good night all.
Have to go to demolish a huge amount of roast potatoes.
Was distracted by the Clegg Hallam & Farage Thanet polls earlier and for some reason cooked triple portions.

Goodnight, Yahyah.

@ Primecut

Hello, there.

Sorry about the delayed reaction. You'll get used to it!

@ yahyah

Goodnight.

yahyah wrote:Has anyone else who has donated to Oliver Coppard got their credit card or bank statements handy ?

I just noticed, when checking my credit card bill for errors etc. that all my other debits are labelled GBR for Great Britain but the payment I made to what I presume was Coppard's website has been paid to 'Paypal Sheffield DHA' in Luxembourg. I don't use Paypal.

I donated a while back to him also, didn't notice the payment details for that and have shredded my credit card bill for then.

Same thing happened to me through donation to the Labour party. I don't have a Paypal account either. My account showed up the amount properly debited.

rebeccariots2 wrote:Please can somebody stop Michael Gove saying 'eye Ron clad' about their ****ing pledge.

It's iron clad - and the r is almost silent. I want to go and scream in a broom cupboard everytime I hear it repeated.

Right. Got that off my chest. Until the next time ...

To be fair to Mr Gove he is Scottish.

rebeccariots2 wrote:

Tim Ross ‏@TimRossDT 1h1 hour ago
Lib Dems stressing that Ashcroft doesn't name the candidates in Sheffield Hallam poll. The party's polling includes names and puts Clegg up.

I think you really only need the first three words of that tweet ...

Do the Lib Dems think that there are voters in the Sheffield Hallam constituency who don't know Clegg is the Lib Dem candidate? That is a very slender straw they are clutching at there.


@Primecut, welcome to the pleasure dome!!

rebeccariots2 wrote:

Isabel Hardman ‏@IsabelHardman 4m4 minutes ago
If @tomgreatrexmp loses his seat next week, it’s a sign Scottish Labour are screwed. Here’s how his campaign is going http://specc.ie/1DWyKTy" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Greatrex sounds like a good MP - and he's been really active in opposing / exposing the WCA flaws and injustices.

The description of his door step campaigning reminds me of our candidate - he also engages in long discussions with people over local issues and seems to have the details at his fingertips - very reassuring. Makes me have faith that he will be a very good constituency MP if elected.

Katy Clark is another one who is very good, though bit to the left of me.

Sheila Gilmour is good too.

Losing them to some SNP droids is going to be very painful.

I still find it incredible that the SNP are on course for some of the gains mooted about.

But hey, I'm a red Tory so what the hell do I know?

Tubby Isaacs wrote:

rebeccariots2 wrote:

Isabel Hardman ‏@IsabelHardman 4m4 minutes ago
If @tomgreatrexmp loses his seat next week, it’s a sign Scottish Labour are screwed. Here’s how his campaign is going http://specc.ie/1DWyKTy" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Greatrex sounds like a good MP - and he's been really active in opposing / exposing the WCA flaws and injustices.

The description of his door step campaigning reminds me of our candidate - he also engages in long discussions with people over local issues and seems to have the details at his fingertips - very reassuring. Makes me have faith that he will be a very good constituency MP if elected.

Katy Clark is another one who is very good, though bit to the left of me.

Sheila Gilmour is good too.

Losing them to some SNP droids is going to be very painful.

Droids?

yahyah wrote:Has anyone else who has donated to Oliver Coppard got their credit card or bank statements handy ?

I just noticed, when checking my credit card bill for errors etc. that all my other debits are labelled GBR for Great Britain but the payment I made to what I presume was Coppard's website has been paid to 'Paypal Sheffield DHA' in Luxembourg. I don't use Paypal.

I donated a while back to him also, didn't notice the payment details for that and have shredded my credit card bill for then.

I wonder if you've been hacked. Luxembourg? That's weird.
I'd check with the campaign manager.

I had a Paypal account that I used just a couple of times.
I hadn't used it for some time, and it and the bank card I'd used on it were hacked.
Somehow they'd got in- it wasn't the ebay thing as I've never used ebay.

The names used for the payments (which started off at ten or twenty pounds) were the same names as the payees on the account - but the money didn't go to them. It went to Luxembourg.
I'd had problems with Paypal closing the account, as they were insistent it was the bank's fault (it wasn't) then later the names were French or Vietnamese-sounding and the amounts were higher.

The bank were terrific and dealt with Paypal for me as it was obvious that the problem originated with them; I got the stolen money back, and the bank informs me whenever another attempt on the account is made.
The bank account and card that the Paypal account were linked to were closed at once - but I still get messages from Paypal saying I've paid Mr.X £300 or whatever. All I can do is report it as phishing.

Obviously I closed the account eventually - 2 years on, it's still happening occasionally on the closed accounts. Very odd.

yahyah wrote:Has anyone else who has donated to Oliver Coppard got their credit card or bank statements handy ?

I just noticed, when checking my credit card bill for errors etc. that all my other debits are labelled GBR for Great Britain but the payment I made to what I presume was Coppard's website has been paid to 'Paypal Sheffield DHA' in Luxembourg. I don't use Paypal.

I donated a while back to him also, didn't notice the payment details for that and have shredded my credit card bill for then.

You don't need to have a Paypal account to pay into a Paypal account. They do direct transfers from banks too. It's not a scam site if that's what you are worried about, plenty of places use Paypal eg Ebay.

Presumably Paypal are doing an Amazon and are registered in Luxembourg for tax purposes.

PaulfromYorkshire wrote:

Tubby Isaacs wrote:

rebeccariots2 wrote: Greatrex sounds like a good MP - and he's been really active in opposing / exposing the WCA flaws and injustices.

The description of his door step campaigning reminds me of our candidate - he also engages in long discussions with people over local issues and seems to have the details at his fingertips - very reassuring. Makes me have faith that he will be a very good constituency MP if elected.

Katy Clark is another one who is very good, though bit to the left of me.

Sheila Gilmour is good too.

Losing them to some SNP droids is going to be very painful.

Droids?

Robots.

PaulfromYorkshire wrote:

rebeccariots2 wrote:Please can somebody stop Michael Gove saying 'eye Ron clad' about their ****ing pledge.

It's iron clad - and the r is almost silent. I want to go and scream in a broom cupboard everytime I hear it repeated.

Right. Got that off my chest. Until the next time ...

To be fair to Mr Gove he is Scottish.

And you can stop being so ****ing reasonable.

letsskiptotheleft wrote:I still find it incredible that the SNP are on course for some of the gains mooted about.

But hey, I'm a red Tory so what the hell do I know?

I wonder how many "shy" Labour voters are out there? The nats have been a bit vicious at times; I can't help feeling that some of their much-vaunted support is actually just people who are going to vote Labour but just say they're not to keep the nats quiet.

My mate in Glasgow (who is a very red Labour person) was campaigning for independence - but she wanted Scottish self-determination and is convinced that many diehard Labour voters in her area will stay with Labour.
You can be Labour and still want independence - my mate reckons that having a strong Labour or trades union presence at Holyrood can only be a good thing if independence ever happens; but as long as the Scots are ruled partially from Westminster she thinks Labour is the only option for her. She thinks that there are more people like her than the nats think.

If Smithson is right, and Labour get a 3.5% swing from the Tories in those 50 seats, then losing a few in Scotland won't be the end of the world. Personally, I'm inclined to think that Labour won't lose as many seats in Scotland as the nats hope.

I'm no too worried about Wales.

yahyah wrote:Has anyone else who has donated to Oliver Coppard got their credit card or bank statements handy ?

I just noticed, when checking my credit card bill for errors etc. that all my other debits are labelled GBR for Great Britain but the payment I made to what I presume was Coppard's website has been paid to 'Paypal Sheffield DHA' in Luxembourg. I don't use Paypal.

I donated a while back to him also, didn't notice the payment details for that and have shredded my credit card bill for then.

Paypal are registered in Luxembourg, if that helps. They're one of the biggest online payment providers in the world, people trust them, so I presume that's why they were chosen to process online donations. Finding a bank above reproach to do your financial business has gotten a lot harder since the Co-op became prey to a couple of hedge funds, hasn't it?

Tubby Isaacs wrote:

PaulfromYorkshire wrote:

Tubby Isaacs wrote: Katy Clark is another one who is very good, though bit to the left of me.

Sheila Gilmour is good too.

Losing them to some SNP droids is going to be very painful.

Droids?

Robots.

So the "robot" who is standing against Greatrex (who I do like) is

Margaret [Ferrier] is a 54 year old full-time working mother of a 22 year old daughter, who is currently studying teacher training at Glasgow University.

She works for a blue chip manufacturing construction company in Motherwell where she manages a team within the Commercial Sales Department.

She was born and bred in Glasgow, moved to Rutherglen in 1972-1990 and has lived in Cambuslang for 15 years. She is an elected community councillor within Halfway and as a member of Amnesty International was always someone who wanted to stand up for people’s human rights and equality.

She has worked as a volunteer for the Citizens Advice Bureau giving her an insight into how invaluable a service the CAB delivers for many people who have no other route to go down and are desperate for advice.

Edited to say I'm not sure that would convince me, but....

TheGrimSqueaker wrote:

rebeccariots2 wrote:

Tim Ross ‏@TimRossDT 1h1 hour ago
Lib Dems stressing that Ashcroft doesn't name the candidates in Sheffield Hallam poll. The party's polling includes names and puts Clegg up.

I think you really only need the first three words of that tweet ...

Do the Lib Dems think that there are voters in the Sheffield Hallam constituency who don't know Clegg is the Lib Dem candidate? That is a very slender straw they are clutching at there.


@Primecut, welcome to the pleasure dome!!

(cough)cleggs standing (cough)

rebeccariots2 wrote:

PaulfromYorkshire wrote:

rebeccariots2 wrote:Please can somebody stop Michael Gove saying 'eye Ron clad' about their ****ing pledge.

It's iron clad - and the r is almost silent. I want to go and scream in a broom cupboard everytime I hear it repeated.

Right. Got that off my chest. Until the next time ...

To be fair to Mr Gove he is Scottish.

And you can stop being so ****ing reasonable.

Sorry Rebecca

It is indeed rare for me to come out on Gove's side

From over there.

Here’s an update on the top Google queries today, which are all Russell Brand related:

1. Ed Miliband Russell Brand
2. Ed Miliband Russell Brand interview
3. Ed Miliband Russell Brand YouTube
4. The Trews Ed Miliband
5. Russell Brand Ed Miliband full interview

diGriz wrote:From over there.

Here’s an update on the top Google queries today, which are all Russell Brand related:

1. Ed Miliband Russell Brand
2. Ed Miliband Russell Brand interview
3. Ed Miliband Russell Brand YouTube
4. The Trews Ed Miliband
5. Russell Brand Ed Miliband full interview

Not that they are also Ed Miliband related or anything but still...

ephemerid wrote:

letsskiptotheleft wrote:I still find it incredible that the SNP are on course for some of the gains mooted about.

But hey, I'm a red Tory so what the hell do I know?

I wonder how many "shy" Labour voters are out there? The nats have been a bit vicious at times; I can't help feeling that some of their much-vaunted support is actually just people who are going to vote Labour but just say they're not to keep the nats quiet.

My mate in Glasgow (who is a very red Labour person) was campaigning for independence - but she wanted Scottish self-determination and is convinced that many diehard Labour voters in her area will stay with Labour.
You can be Labour and still want independence - my mate reckons that having a strong Labour or trades union presence at Holyrood can only be a good thing if independence ever happens; but as long as the Scots are ruled partially from Westminster she thinks Labour is the only option for her. She thinks that there are more people like her than the nats think.

If Smithson is right, and Labour get a 3.5% swing from the Tories in those 50 seats, then losing a few in Scotland won't be the end of the world. Personally, I'm inclined to think that Labour won't lose as many seats in Scotland as the nats hope.

I'm no too worried about Wales.

I do hope you are right, not too worried about Wales either, I can see Williams holding on in B&R, doubtful the Tories will make gains, Cardiff North is gone for them, praying we are in with a good shout in the Vale, Aberconwy and down west too.

ephemerid wrote:

letsskiptotheleft wrote:I still find it incredible that the SNP are on course for some of the gains mooted about.

But hey, I'm a red Tory so what the hell do I know?

I wonder how many "shy" Labour voters are out there? The nats have been a bit vicious at times; I can't help feeling that some of their much-vaunted support is actually just people who are going to vote Labour but just say they're not to keep the nats quiet.

My mate in Glasgow (who is a very red Labour person) was campaigning for independence - but she wanted Scottish self-determination and is convinced that many diehard Labour voters in her area will stay with Labour.
You can be Labour and still want independence - my mate reckons that having a strong Labour or trades union presence at Holyrood can only be a good thing if independence ever happens; but as long as the Scots are ruled partially from Westminster she thinks Labour is the only option for her. She thinks that there are more people like her than the nats think.

If Smithson is right, and Labour get a 3.5% swing from the Tories in those 50 seats, then losing a few in Scotland won't be the end of the world. Personally, I'm inclined to think that Labour won't lose as many seats in Scotland as the nats hope.

I'm no too worried about Wales.

I'm happy to read this. Thank you, Ephemerid.

Mike Fraser retweeted
NumbrCrunchrPolitics ‏@NCPoliticsUK 27 mins27 minutes ago

Some very heavy hints being dropped about tomorrow's Ipsos MORI/Standard poll - language suggests a shift towards the Tories

Sorry LetsSkip

Ooh I've just had a treat!

I've just looked out of my window, and there's a lovely white waxing gibbous moon sitting in a cerulean almost cloudless sky.

It's just lovely.

Shock as US economy grows just 0.2%
All the latest economic and financial news, as US recovery almost grinds to a halt...
Financial markets rattled by weak GDP number ahead of Fed meeting

http://www.theguardian.com/business/liv ... fakis-live" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Unsurprising.
Get money & resources to the people, fools, unless you dig feudalism.

ephemerid wrote:Ooh I've just had a treat!

I've just looked out of my window, and there's a lovely white waxing gibbous moon sitting in a cerulean almost cloudless sky.

It's just lovely.

Same here, absolutely stunning day & I've spent too much of it doing chores, reading, posting & fretting far too much. Always something new to learn. I need to unlearn. My partner came home & his cheerfulness is wonderful.
love
cJA

From Philip Cowley.

letsskiptotheleft wrote:

ephemerid wrote:

letsskiptotheleft wrote:I still find it incredible that the SNP are on course for some of the gains mooted about.

But hey, I'm a red Tory so what the hell do I know?

I wonder how many "shy" Labour voters are out there? The nats have been a bit vicious at times; I can't help feeling that some of their much-vaunted support is actually just people who are going to vote Labour but just say they're not to keep the nats quiet.

My mate in Glasgow (who is a very red Labour person) was campaigning for independence - but she wanted Scottish self-determination and is convinced that many diehard Labour voters in her area will stay with Labour.
You can be Labour and still want independence - my mate reckons that having a strong Labour or trades union presence at Holyrood can only be a good thing if independence ever happens; but as long as the Scots are ruled partially from Westminster she thinks Labour is the only option for her. She thinks that there are more people like her than the nats think.

If Smithson is right, and Labour get a 3.5% swing from the Tories in those 50 seats, then losing a few in Scotland won't be the end of the world. Personally, I'm inclined to think that Labour won't lose as many seats in Scotland as the nats hope.

I'm no too worried about Wales.

I do hope you are right, not too worried about Wales either, I can see Williams holding on in B&R, doubtful the Tories will make gains, Cardiff North is gone for them, praying we are in with a good shout in the Vale, Aberconwy and down west too.

I've got a feeling that Plaid might take Ceredigion this time around ... just a feeling.

letsskiptotheleft wrote:

ephemerid wrote:

letsskiptotheleft wrote:I still find it incredible that the SNP are on course for some of the gains mooted about.

But hey, I'm a red Tory so what the hell do I know?

I wonder how many "shy" Labour voters are out there? The nats have been a bit vicious at times; I can't help feeling that some of their much-vaunted support is actually just people who are going to vote Labour but just say they're not to keep the nats quiet.

My mate in Glasgow (who is a very red Labour person) was campaigning for independence - but she wanted Scottish self-determination and is convinced that many diehard Labour voters in her area will stay with Labour.
You can be Labour and still want independence - my mate reckons that having a strong Labour or trades union presence at Holyrood can only be a good thing if independence ever happens; but as long as the Scots are ruled partially from Westminster she thinks Labour is the only option for her. She thinks that there are more people like her than the nats think.

If Smithson is right, and Labour get a 3.5% swing from the Tories in those 50 seats, then losing a few in Scotland won't be the end of the world. Personally, I'm inclined to think that Labour won't lose as many seats in Scotland as the nats hope.

I'm no too worried about Wales.

I do hope you are right, not too worried about Wales either, I can see Williams holding on in B&R, doubtful the Tories will make gains, Cardiff North is gone for them, praying we are in with a good shout in the Vale, Aberconwy and down west too.

Roger Hugh Williams has got a battle on his hands. The Tory could well sneak in; our Matthew is working his socks off and thinks it's not impossible for him to sneak in.

RHW was supposed to be retiring. I'm glad he didn't - if a new face came along the vote would probably go to the Tory.
Voters round here like their locals.

It's all a bit worrying and exciting at the same time.