FlyTheNest

Tom Newton Dunn ‏@tnewtondunn 1m1 minute ago
EXCL: Final #GE2015 seat prediction from YouGov's Peter Kellner - Con 284, Lab 263, SNP 48, LD 31, UKIP 2, GRN 1 http://www.sunnation.co.uk/every-vote-c ... ries-tied/ …

rebeccariots2 wrote:

Tom Newton Dunn ‏@tnewtondunn 1m1 minute ago
EXCL: Final #GE2015 seat prediction from YouGov's Peter Kellner - Con 284, Lab 263, SNP 48, LD 31, UKIP 2, GRN 1 http://www.sunnation.co.uk/every-vote-c ... ries-tied/ …

He's expecting the Lib Dems and Conservatives to do well then.

PorFavor wrote:I'm back again. I couldn't say goodnight without sharing this e-mail, which I just found in my inbox. It's beautifully written and a lump came into my throat (yes, really) as I read it.


As I write this, Justine and I are on our last trip on the Labour campaign bus. We're heading back from an incredible supporter rally in Leeds to Doncaster so we can vote there first thing tomorrow morning.

So while I have this rare, quiet moment, I want to say this: thank you.

I am so proud to have fought this campaign alongside you. If our country votes for a Labour government tomorrow, it will be because of the dedication, passion and generosity of hundreds of thousands of people like you.

This truly grassroots-powered campaign has been unlike anything I've experienced in politics before. Meeting so many of you — and seeing first-hand your enthusiasm and energy for our vision of a better, fairer, more equal Britain — has been the biggest joy for me of the last six weeks.

So whatever the outcome tomorrow, I want now to celebrate and recognise the historic things we've already achieved together: the most conversations ever had with voters, the most small donations to an election campaign, the most volunteers.

I know that the vision we have spread across Britain — friend-by-friend, house-by-house, street-by-street — is one that can deliver real change for our country. It is a vision that can make lives better for millions of people, now and for generations to come.

So, as you cast your vote tomorrow, remember who we are fighting this election for: the millions who work so hard every single day but still can't make ends meet; the hundreds of thousands suffering under the weight of a Bedroom Tax they cannot escape; the young people who fear life will be worse for them than it was for their parents.

We are fighting this election for all of us. And for the part you've played — and will play tomorrow — I want to thank you, [ ], from the bottom of my heart.

Here's to you, and to a brighter future for our great country.

Ed



So, with that thought - goodnight and sleep well. See you all tomorrow.

ephemerid wrote:Spacedone - I don't know how that isn't considered social engineering or gerrymandering. Because that is what it is.

I wonder how many people, in debt and stuck in homes they have to pay bedroom tax for whilst on low wages or benefits, will take this offer up.
It's a racket.
The council is bribing people to leave, knowing that some of them will face eviction or prosecution for debt (to the council) if they don't. Either way, the Tory council gets it's mitts on properties which could command a big chunk of cash if sold privately.

I used to live in Wandsworth many years ago. Bought a little basement flat with the ex at the top of West Hill. Loved it there.

The average council rent in Wandsworth for a 2-bed flat is about £120PW.
The Local Housing Allowance for a private let 2-bed flat is £280.60PW.
Private 2-bed flats are going for between £200 and £900 a week.

No wonder they want the tenants on HB out.
The cheapest 2-bed I could find in Wandsworth is a housing association flat at £206,000.
Private ones - ex-council too - start at £250,000.

I'd be interested to know what Lady C thinks about this.

May2015 Election ‏@May2015NS 7 mins7 minutes ago
10k-person YGov poll says Tories 34 Lab 34. If they - and many others - are wrong, and Tories win by 3, it's because of methodology not MoE.

Jason Beattie @JBeattieMirror
Poll by @survation has glimmer of hope for Labour: undecideds have been breaking 31%Lab, 23%Con #GE2015

'You don't have to stand up and be counted. You can sit down and be ignored if you like'

Paul Mason ‏@paulmasonnews 2 mins2 minutes ago
Wow Rupert Murdoch's Times "can reveal" the Queen is going to back Cameron. Surely they should declare victory for Cameron now?

Isabel Hardman ‏@IsabelHardman 4m4 minutes ago
Plus gossip from the ground is Helen Grant is toast in Maidstone and The Weald http://specc.ie/1dO3vVp

I’m sure you all know who you’re going to vote for and i wouldn't presume to change that - except to say that If any of you are considering, even momentarily, a vote for the Conservative Party. Then that is utterly unfathomable to me and you must be under labouring under some terrible delusion, hypnotised, disengaged to the point of being dangerous or simply an absolute unmitigated disgrace of a person.
But - if you’re planning on voting Conservative, just have a good proper think why you’re doing that. It took me a very long time to stop ordering pork belly every time it was on the menu no matter the meal, the time of day or the hygiene rating of the establishment. - We all make bad decisions through habit. That's all I’m saying.
Maybe you haven't thought about the election at all because you’ve had too much on with your “own stuff”. Maybe you’ve sworn off voting entirely - initially inspired by but more recently in defiance of, Russell Brand. Maybe you are basing your decision on who has the most “personality” Or maybe, “they” “all” seem equally odious and you wish a “curse” on all “their” “houses” You believe in short - they are all the same.
It’s easy to feel that way i think, but its dangerous - it serves only the incumbent and fundamentally - its not true, “They” are not “all” the “same”.
I have often felt underwhelmed and let down by the Labour Party in opposition primarily because too often they have seemed unwilling or unable to articulate an ethical and/or ideological argument against the policies and actions of the coalition which have, to my mind, been entirely driven by ideology (albeit duplicitously obfuscated with protestations of fiscal necessity in times of crisis).
I wanted to hear big, brave arguments being made about humanity and compassion and responsibility. Arguments based in ethical ideas and idealogical integrity. I wanted someone to point out that the Conservative reliance on ultra wealthy donors is not the same as the Labour reliance on the unions and that serving the self interest of the wealthy has never sent good things trickling down to the poor. I wanted the terms of the debate to shift and the premise of the entire argument to change from fiscal legitimacy to social justice and it never did.
It has felt, to me, for a long time like the Labour Party have been trying to win a game, the rules of which have been defined by the Conservative party and allowed to stand unchallenged by a compliant press. A game that if they seem for a second like winning will be ruled illegitimate by the very people who invented the rules.
As i mentioned - I am currently in Australia, showing off, but even here with an entire planet between us to muffle it, i am staggered by the extent of the Conservative scaremongering, the attacks on Ed Miliband, the intimidation of those who support him and the heartbreaking success all this seems to be having in distracting people from the whole scale decimation of public services and the litany of broken promises and the sickening self interest that characterises the last five years.
So whilst there are things i wish had been said and arguments i wish had been made, whilst i feel, the strength and nature of my objections are often insufficiently represented by the opposition currently available - I am not scared of the democratically mandated politicians of the SNP (I would be absolutely delighted for them to drag the Labour party to the left in one of the sweetest coalitions i can dream of) I am not scared of Europe (I like a lot of its food and want to drive my camper van there) I am not scared of Immigration and I am not scared of higher taxes (I am ultra wealthy and you can have loads of it). I am scared of two things. - Firstly, Witches (Obviously, I'm not stupid) and secondly the prospect of another Conservative led government actively disenfranchising hundreds of thousands of people.

Obviously if you are planning on voting for Ukip then there has clearly been some mistake that has led you to my mailing list. - you don't belong here. You were probably added to my mailing list by some crafty, comedy savvy immigrant who having been wronged by your loathsome insularity is looking to exact some odd revenge by subjecting you to sporadic marketing emails from a dwindling comic force. You can just click on unsubscribe and go about your misguided and fearful day full of confused, angry and cowardly chores.

Spacedone wrote:Jesus wept...

Paul Mason ‏@paulmasonnews 2 mins2 minutes ago
Wow Rupert Murdoch's Times "can reveal" the Queen is going to back Cameron. Surely they should declare victory for Cameron now?

Spacedone wrote:Jesus wept...

Paul Mason ‏@paulmasonnews 2 mins2 minutes ago
Wow Rupert Murdoch's Times "can reveal" the Queen is going to back Cameron. Surely they should declare victory for Cameron now?

rebeccariots2 wrote:One for the Grim Squeaker if they are still around ...

Isabel Hardman ‏@IsabelHardman 4m4 minutes ago
Plus gossip from the ground is Helen Grant is toast in Maidstone and The Weald http://specc.ie/1dO3vVp

AngryAsWell wrote:A question for Team Miliband: why isn’t he cruising to victory?
If Labour fails, it will have more to do with the leader’s caution than his Moses complex
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general ... ctory.html

Tweeted as "Why I think Ed M deserves a chance"

RogerOThornhill wrote:

Spacedone wrote:Jesus wept...

Paul Mason ‏@paulmasonnews 2 mins2 minutes ago
Wow Rupert Murdoch's Times "can reveal" the Queen is going to back Cameron. Surely they should declare victory for Cameron now?

Hopefully someone might remind her about Cameron giving away that she purred down the phone after the referendum result.

In any case, it's the Cabinet Secretary who takes control not HMQ. She'll be guided by her officials and by Heywood - that is after all their job.

Spacedone wrote:

AngryAsWell wrote:A question for Team Miliband: why isn’t he cruising to victory?
If Labour fails, it will have more to do with the leader’s caution than his Moses complex
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general ... ctory.html

Tweeted as "Why I think Ed M deserves a chance"

Still here...

Moses complex? WTF? How many different ways can they think up to mention that he's Jewish?

Spacedone wrote:That "Wow" 10,000 superpoll that the Sun was bigging up?

May2015 Election ‏@May2015NS 7 mins7 minutes ago
10k-person YGov poll says Tories 34 Lab 34. If they - and many others - are wrong, and Tories win by 3, it's because of methodology not MoE.

People are questioning why they added that bit about the Tories winning by 3 at the end.

yahyah wrote:See you later.

Am also nervous because my husband's going for aortic aneurysm screening today.
I know it is just precautionary, but when my anxiety receptors are stimulated everything gets me twitchy.

LadyCentauria wrote:

ephemerid wrote:Spacedone - I don't know how that isn't considered social engineering or gerrymandering. Because that is what it is.

I wonder how many people, in debt and stuck in homes they have to pay bedroom tax for whilst on low wages or benefits, will take this offer up.
It's a racket.
The council is bribing people to leave, knowing that some of them will face eviction or prosecution for debt (to the council) if they don't. Either way, the Tory council gets it's mitts on properties which could command a big chunk of cash if sold privately.

I used to live in Wandsworth many years ago. Bought a little basement flat with the ex at the top of West Hill. Loved it there.

The average council rent in Wandsworth for a 2-bed flat is about £120PW.
The Local Housing Allowance for a private let 2-bed flat is £280.60PW.
Private 2-bed flats are going for between £200 and £900 a week.

No wonder they want the tenants on HB out.
The cheapest 2-bed I could find in Wandsworth is a housing association flat at £206,000.
Private ones - ex-council too - start at £250,000.

I'd be interested to know what Lady C thinks about this.

Yes, it's gerrymandering/social-cleansing and it's despicable. There are very few parts of this Tory-Flagship borough where you could rent a 2-bed private flat with the LHA alone. And, as I said above, the council has had a range of move-out-for-money offers for as long as I can remember but, out of around 16,000 council properties, only around 1,000 households are subject to the Under-Occupancy Penalty. They re-jigged their criteria for acceptance to the waiting list, when the Coalition Government gave them that power, and it plunged from many thousands to, I think, around 5,000.

When my neighbour moved from her 4-bed maisonette (blocks on this estate each contain either 2 to 4-bed places or 1 to 3-bed, and all low-rise) to the sheltered-flats over the road, I honestly expected that the council would sell her old place – open market would be well in excess of £350,000 – and was pleasantly surprised when a new family moved in as council tenants. They'd been on the transfer-list to up-size since long before the U-OP was introduced, though.

seeingclearly wrote:

ephemerid wrote:If you live in social or council housing in the Borough of Wandsworth, and you are eligible for the Under Occupation Penalty, you might get a letter from the council offering new accommodation - in Birmingham.

Wandsworth Cllr. Simon Hogg, who represents Latchmere and Battersea in the borough, has Tweeted a copy of the letter. In it, the council says it has properties in the private sector in the Birmingham area available to rent.
If you move, you can get £2,000 in expenses, plus between £3,500 to £5,000 cash depending on how many bedrooms there are in your current home in Wandsworth. Move from a 2-bed in Battersea to a one-bed in Brum and you get £5,500 in total.

That council is controlled by a Conservative majority.

I wonder how many people, struggling with money, will take up this bribe to be socially cleansed from their community?

That will be perhaps why it's impossible to find a one bedroom flat in Brum, with a shower, ground floor and will take DSS. Oh and somewhere close to the LHA. stupid me for not realising. Next thought, where do Brummies move to? And where did the people from that place go?

rebeccariots2 wrote:

George Eaton ‏@georgeeaton 9m9 minutes ago
Lab 46 - Con 33 in new @YouGov London poll - biggest lead for a year. Labour on course for 8-10 gains. http://bit.ly/1DRXuMi

Britain Elects ‏@britainelects 8m8 minutes ago
Latest London YouGov poll (YouGov | 29 Apr - 01 May):
LAB - 46% (+2)
CON - 33% (+1)
LDEM - 9% (+1)
UKIP - 8% (-2)
GRN - 3% (-2)

LadyCentauria wrote:

seeingclearly wrote:

ephemerid wrote:If you live in social or council housing in the Borough of Wandsworth, and you are eligible for the Under Occupation Penalty, you might get a letter from the council offering new accommodation - in Birmingham.

Wandsworth Cllr. Simon Hogg, who represents Latchmere and Battersea in the borough, has Tweeted a copy of the letter. In it, the council says it has properties in the private sector in the Birmingham area available to rent.
If you move, you can get £2,000 in expenses, plus between £3,500 to £5,000 cash depending on how many bedrooms there are in your current home in Wandsworth. Move from a 2-bed in Battersea to a one-bed in Brum and you get £5,500 in total.

That council is controlled by a Conservative majority.

I wonder how many people, struggling with money, will take up this bribe to be socially cleansed from their community?

That will be perhaps why it's impossible to find a one bedroom flat in Brum, with a shower, ground floor and will take DSS. Oh and somewhere close to the LHA. stupid me for not realising. Next thought, where do Brummies move to? And where did the people from that place go?

This is why the business of not building council/social housing is such a bloody stupid idea, massively compounded by (especially) London Councils holding out chequebooks to guarantee rents (for between one and three years) to private landlords anywhere who'll accept nominated ex-council tenants! Of course, many of the tenants who accept the council's offer to them of money-if-you-move-away-and-go-private will not understand that they are kissing goodbye to any chance of ever moving back to their original area let alone ever being housed by a council again, whilst looking forward to moving again every year or two – or simply at any hint they want a repair done! And, these tenants probably wo'n't have any understanding that they're wrecking the chances of other people to get housed in the areas they're moving to, or give much (if any) thought to where the Brummies who wo'n't be able to live in Brum are supposed to go.

It's all a total shit-storm.

May I join you at that wall, please? Ta.