Saturday 24th & Sunday 25th January 2015

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PorFavor
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Re: Saturday 24th & Sunday 25th January 2015

Post by PorFavor »

TechnicalEphemera wrote:
ohsocynical wrote:Cas Mudde ‏@CasMudde 2 hrs2 hours ago
Exit polls allegedly have #Syriza at landslide win, some 12% ahead, which could give it absolute majority of seats and one-party government.
0 replies . 140 retweets 49 favourites
Can't be exit polls, polls close at 17:00 GMT (or if you prefer Z).
Ah, good point. I thought it (ie the time here and now) was later than that but it's not yet even 4.30pm (stating the bleedin' obvious). At least now I know why people say of me "She doesn't even know the time of day."

(Mind you, at the rate I'm typing, it will probably be gone 10pm by the time you get to see this . . . )

Edited to add -

Ah! I see that I haven't yet adjusted the clock on this site. Almost seems not worth it now.
ohsocynical
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Re: Saturday 24th & Sunday 25th January 2015

Post by ohsocynical »

Should have added...Such waste. Because if the LibDems had stuck to what Vince was saying at the time things could have been a lot different. That is what makes me angriest.

We lightly call them the 'enablers', but there has to be a more specific word for what they did. What they did was far worse. I firmly believe the blame sits squarely on their shoulders.

And given human nature, I cannot believe that any other party suddenly elevated to power and having the final say wouldn't do the same.
Last edited by ohsocynical on Sun 25 Jan, 2015 5:19 pm, edited 1 time in total.
We hang the petty thieves and appoint the great ones to public office. – Aesop
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ErnstRemarx
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Re: Saturday 24th & Sunday 25th January 2015

Post by ErnstRemarx »

TheGrimSqueaker wrote:Lot of articles in the papers today about Winston Churchill, it being the 50th anniversary of his death. Chris Bryant tweeted this last night
Chris Bryant @ChrisBryantMP
· 13h 13 hours ago
Midst all the understandable praise for Churchill’s wartime valiance, it’s worth recalling that he was never welcome in Tonypandy.
and, of course, he has made a very valid point. A deeply flawed man, it could be argued that he did far more harm than he did good during his political career; but, boy, the bit he did do good was awfully important. Simon Schama has also been tweeting on this too:
Simon Schama @simon_schama
· 29m 29 minutes ago
wonderful BBC archive including that dockers' salute; but the faces of the crowd say it all
And that is the point. However I may feel about him with my head (and I'm pretty much with Chris Bryant) emotionally, with my heart, it is something different; I was about 3 1/2 when he died and one of my earliest childhood memories is of watching the funeral on TV with my parents and grandparents - my grandfather was by then an invalid, crippled with the emphysema which eventually killed him, which was the only thing that stopped that ex-docker and wartime fireman from going to the River and watching events with his own eyes. I remember hearing the 19-gun salute and watching the RAF Lightning flypast (we were still living in Bermondsey then); and, most of all, I remember the raw emotion, the heartfelt grief on the faces of my family.

So, yes, I know this is man who sent troops into Tonypandy, who was responsible for Gallipoli, who was more than happy to sanction the use of gas against Iraqi insurgents and who is reviled in Ireland and India. But I will be remembering him respectfully over the next few days, if only to honour the memory of my late father and grandparents.
I'm atrociously late to this weekend's thread - I spent much of yesterday doing the battle of Nantwich with a friend - so can I say welcome back Grimmers? Even the short time you spent away felt a bit empty, so I'm delighted that you've rocked uphere again
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TechnicalEphemera
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Re: Saturday 24th & Sunday 25th January 2015

Post by TechnicalEphemera »

rebeccariots2 wrote:Did anyone see the Sunday Politics show? Seen some tweets re Natalie Bennett's appearance on it - sounds like Andrew Neil was quizzing her on that short list of policies that have been doing the rounds (with added media / spin distortion factor ....)
George Foulkes ‏@GeorgeFoulkes 5h5 hours ago
Green Leader Natalie Bennett totally unable to answer when challenged by @afneil on how Citizen's income would be funded #SundayPolitics

Jeremy Miles ‏@Jeremy_Miles 4h4 hours ago
Extraordinary that the @TheGreenParty haven't given a passing thought to how to pay for their wish list. Not serious. #bbcsp

Cllr Alex Bigham @alexbigham · 5h 5 hours ago
Car crash TV as @TheGreenParty leader @natalieben is skewered on their economic illiteracy by @afneil #bbcsp

Cllr Alex Bigham @alexbigham · 5h 5 hours ago
Crikey. @TheGreenParty leader @natalieben says it should be legal to be a member of ISIS and Al Qaeda in the Uk #softonterror #bbcsp

john spellar ‏@spellar 14m14 minutes ago
RT @SDoughtyMP: gobsmacked by Green leader on @daily_politics - thinks okay to be member of Al-Qaeda as long as you don't do anything bad
None of the above is a shock. Green policies are not serious, they are a wish list of left wing fantasy specifically tailored to pick up left wing votes from Labour/Lib Dem voters and non voters.

That isn't to say every policy they have is rubbish , there are some good ideas here and there, but it would actually be ethically unacceptable to enact the entire manifesto ( too much chance of triggering economic implosion).

However since all the above is a given I doubt any green voters will be surprised, or even care that Bennett can't answer questions about implementation.
Release the Guardvarks.
Spacedone
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Re: Saturday 24th & Sunday 25th January 2015

Post by Spacedone »

rebeccariots2 wrote:Did anyone see the Sunday Politics show? Seen some tweets re Natalie Bennett's appearance on it - sounds like Andrew Neil was quizzing her on that short list of policies that have been doing the rounds (with added media / spin distortion factor ....)
George Foulkes ‏@GeorgeFoulkes 5h5 hours ago
Green Leader Natalie Bennett totally unable to answer when challenged by @afneil on how Citizen's income would be funded #SundayPolitics

Jeremy Miles ‏@Jeremy_Miles 4h4 hours ago
Extraordinary that the @TheGreenParty haven't given a passing thought to how to pay for their wish list. Not serious. #bbcsp

Cllr Alex Bigham @alexbigham · 5h 5 hours ago
Car crash TV as @TheGreenParty leader @natalieben is skewered on their economic illiteracy by @afneil #bbcsp

Cllr Alex Bigham @alexbigham · 5h 5 hours ago
Crikey. @TheGreenParty leader @natalieben says it should be legal to be a member of ISIS and Al Qaeda in the Uk #softonterror #bbcsp

john spellar ‏@spellar 14m14 minutes ago
RT @SDoughtyMP: gobsmacked by Green leader on @daily_politics - thinks okay to be member of Al-Qaeda as long as you don't do anything bad
Someone uploaded the whole thing to Youtube if anyone is interested.

[youtube]5dFn8RIXOBE[/youtube]
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TechnicalEphemera
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Re: Saturday 24th & Sunday 25th January 2015

Post by TechnicalEphemera »

Above, any chance of posting the URL my web browser throws away FTN embedded you tube.
Release the Guardvarks.
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refitman
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Re: Saturday 24th & Sunday 25th January 2015

Post by refitman »

TechnicalEphemera wrote:Above, any chance of posting the URL my web browser throws away FTN embedded you tube.
" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
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ErnstRemarx
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Re: Saturday 24th & Sunday 25th January 2015

Post by ErnstRemarx »

LadyCentauria wrote:
AngryAsWell wrote:...and now its the Greens turn for a bit of misleading press attention.

The Queen could be moved to a COUNCIL HOUSE if Green Party gains power

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/qu ... se-5034477" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Mwahahahaa. Why would someone who owns other houses in her own right need council housing? Just for starters.
I'm reminded of reading - and massively enjoying The Queen and I by Sue Townsend in the 90s. Fabulous stuff.
seeingclearly
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Re: Saturday 24th & Sunday 25th January 2015

Post by seeingclearly »

ephemerid wrote:
HindleA wrote:Morning.


http://www.theguardian.com/society/patr ... CMP=twt_gu" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;


MPs' inquiry: Five things we've learned about benefit sanctions


1. It’s official: sanctions are bad for your health
2. If you are ill to start with, sanctions are really, really bad for your health
3. Sanctioning is a postcode lottery
4. Many sanctioned people “disappear” - but why?
5. Jobcentre staff feel under pressure to sanction claimants inappropriately


"As a [jobcentre] we are very closely monitored around around sanctions rates. Each week [there is]... a print out of the percentage of sanction decisions we are making. This is clearly a bullying tool in order to bring LMDMs [labour market decision-makers, or people who decide on whether to apply a sanction] into line with senior management’s requirement for 80% of referrals to be a sanction"

There are several answers to the question posed in 4 - viz:

If a person who is referred for a "lower-level" sanction, ie. a potential disallowance of benefit for 4 weeks for the first "failure" to 12 weeks for a second within 52 weeks, their payment will be "suspended" for the time it takes for the first decision to be made and any Mandatory Reconsideration procedures; if the sanction is imposed, the time on suspension will count towards it; if it isn't, the claimant gets benefit restored and backdated.
It may be worth continuing to sign on in those circumstances, even without payment; making a new claim involves a lot of aggravation, especially if there are other passported benefits; plus the new rules stipulate that at least the first 7 days will not be paid.

If a person is referred for an "intermediate-level" sanction, ie. anything from 4 to 12 weeks for any "failure" outstanding from an earlier claim (or attached to another person with whom a claimant now has a joint claim), the decision maker can "suspend" payment for 12 weeks if they think the claimant needs a period of time to demonstrate in a new or joint claim that they are a) serious about looking for work, and b) fully compliant with whatever it was they failed on last time.
It may be worth continuing to sign on in these circumstances too, for the same reasons as before.

BUT -
Once a "first failure" sanction/disallowance has been imposed, the claimant is at more risk of a "second failure". If their benefit has been disallowed, they are less likely to be able to comply with jobsearch requirements. A "second failure" within 52 weeks of the first will result in that sanction being applied to any new claim if the claimant signs off.
If the claimant has two adverse decisions already, they will get a "Higher-level" sanction if they have a third "failure" within 52 weeks.
In that situation, the claimant would have to sign on for some time and receive no benefits for the term of the existing sanctions, plus be at risk of a "Higher-level" if they fail once more - and that could mean no benefit for 3 years.
People who continue to sign on but get no benefit are also eligible for the Work Programme, Mandatory Work Activity, and all the daft schemes and whatnot that anyone on JSA for 6 months (and WRAG ESA claimants) are expected to comply with - and failure to do so will result in a sanction if they don't.
The "Higher-level" sanction, usually of 26 weeks, applies to people who are judged to have left their jobs voluntarily or lost their jobs through "misconduct" - and although that has applied since Major's time, the difference now is that if a claimant signs on for no JSA (some do, to get access to programmes and/or other benefits) they are still subject to sanctions and in their situation another "Higher-level" sanction within 52 weeks puts them on a 156-week disallowance.

People who are sanctioned for spurious reasons, people who get the same shit week in week out, are just going to give up.
What is the point of signing on and doing all the stupid things required, like doing workfare, if one little slip or an adviser needing to hit a target means a second or third sanction which will kick you off benefit for 3 years?

There was a case recently in Scotland in which a claimant who has found temporary work was signing off for a while; he was judged to have failed to do what he was supposed to have done and his last few weeks' benefit was sanctioned. 5 "failures" were cited, 5 jobs which the claimant was judged not to have applied for, and 5 sanction referrals were made.
When this chap finishes his temporary job, there is no point him signing on again because there remain 5 outstanding sanction referrals which may apply to any new claim he makes. The decision maker is not allowed to impose 5 sanctions at once; but out of 5 referrals, one of them will probably stick. So this guy would have to wait the standard 7 days before he can register a claim at all, then probably at least 4 weeks of signing on for zero benefit (probably longer if the figures are any indication) then one "failure" and he's out.

We know that since 2011, 1.9 Million people have been sanctioned. Last year alone, more than a million sanction referrals were made, and nearly 500,000 disallowances were imposed on about 350,000 people - so some had more than one disallowance.
Of the 1.9M, only 400,000 went into employment - so 1.6M people were without work or benefits for varying periods, and some of those will be on the intermediate or higher levels and thus under threat of or completely out of benefit for 3 years.

DWP doesn't know or care what happens to all those people. If they were claiming benefits, they are not people who are not working through choice. Whilst there are people who are "economically inactive" because they choose to be, there is no evidence to suggest that this group of people have found work. People who move to other benefits are not included in the figures because DWP knows where they are and they counted in other cohorts.

Sanctioned people disappear because there is nowhere for them to go. If they don't find work or claim another benefit, they're lost to the system. I suspect that they feel it is pointless to engage with it.
I am also convinced that this is deliberate - the new sanctions regime is set up in a way that guarantees an increasing number of people will be locked out of JSA completely for years at a time. The longer you sign on, the greater the risk of this happening.
Recent figures show that someone claiming JSA for 6 months is likely to be sanctioned at least once; longer than a year on JSA and they will be sanctioned at least twice - that means that those who sign on for more than a year are more likely than not to be given a "Higher-level" sanction at some point.
Work Programme providers can refer a case directly to a decision maker now. A claimant on the WP is 5 times more likely to get a sanction than they are to find a job; those who stay for the full 2 years (so far, that's more than 800,000 people) and don't find work go on to the new Help To Work scheme which has draconian conditions, so they are even more likely to get a third and thus 3-year sanction.

This is what the sanctions system is for. If people won't get off benefits, job or not, they'll be taken off.
The JSA claimant count is dropping - and this is the main reason why.
I think people who can are removing themselves, sanction or not, because the stress is too great, and family and friends are providing for them. Even if it's not happening to you the demoralising effects of watching others being sanctioned on a regular basis, and seeing the subsequent melt downs and knowing you can do or say nothing because of the security presence, really takes a toll. And when the people who get the sanctions are the very weak and very poor there's a whole load of mental baggage that accrues. When your turn comes around you have to maintain some outward equilibrium even while churning inside. Which can feel like being complicit. This is what was described to me. By someone likely to jump off. How this impacts households I don't know, and it's hard to find out what the knockin effects are. But if it's to keep minds intact, then I guess this is what families do for each other. There's other aspects but this is the one I know. :wall:
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diGriz
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Re: Saturday 24th & Sunday 25th January 2015

Post by diGriz »

Just caught up on the last 24 hrs here, it does seem the Leon Brittan thing has been eclipsed by some MEP I've not heard of changing parties/fortunes... And that's just on this forum. If what is distilled from the media here has run dry then I'm guessing the media aren't touching it.

What the fuck happened to our media? Do I need to forge a tin foil hat or what?
PorFavor
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Re: Saturday 24th & Sunday 25th January 2015

Post by PorFavor »

I've watched (most of) the Natalie Bennett video. Wince-making. I have a lot of sympathy with some Green sentiments but should their leader not be more familiar with the content of their website and be able to explain things?

Polls have now closed in Greece.
Hobiejoe
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Re: Saturday 24th & Sunday 25th January 2015

Post by Hobiejoe »

Polls just closed in Greece, exit polls should be out shortly. The Graun's live blog said actual results should be coming in in just a few hours.
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Re: Saturday 24th & Sunday 25th January 2015

Post by Hobiejoe »

PorFavor wrote:I've watched (most of) the Natalie Bennett video. Wince-making. I have a lot of sympathy with some Green sentiments but should their leader not be more familiar with the content of their website and be able to explain things?

Polls have now closed in Greece.
Oh snap! And you say you type too slowly :lol:
Tubby Isaacs
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Re: Saturday 24th & Sunday 25th January 2015

Post by Tubby Isaacs »

PorFavor wrote:I've watched (most of) the Natalie Bennett video. Wince-making. I have a lot of sympathy with some Green sentiments but should their leader not be more familiar with the content of their website and be able to explain things?

Polls have now closed in Greece.
The Citizens' Income looked like a massive liability to me straightaway. I think the membership have been far too easily impressed by people with their own hobby horses. It's as if the Tories have lapped up everything that's been in a Bow Group pamphlet- actually they probably have now, but they didn't use to. Problem is that you add up all the spending commitments and you've got problems, even when they're fairly modest (ie cheaper rail fares). Citizens Income is in a whole different league.
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Re: Saturday 24th & Sunday 25th January 2015

Post by PorFavor »

BBC News24 saying that the signs are that Syriza are on course for outright victory.
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ephemerid
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Re: Saturday 24th & Sunday 25th January 2015

Post by ephemerid »

Hobiejoe wrote:Polls just closed in Greece, exit polls should be out shortly. The Graun's live blog said actual results should be coming in in just a few hours.

Latest news says 35% to 39% Syriza - with the Greek system, that gives them a working majority.

If they do it, I will be celebrating!

:clap: :dance: :hug: :clap: :dance: :hug:
"Poverty is the worst form of violence" - Mahatma Gandhi
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diGriz
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Re: Saturday 24th & Sunday 25th January 2015

Post by diGriz »

PorFavor wrote:BBC News24 saying that the signs are that Syriza are on course for outright victory.
I take it everyone will come out singing Brown's praises tomorrow for not taking us into the Euro.Image
AnatolyKasparov
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Re: Saturday 24th & Sunday 25th January 2015

Post by AnatolyKasparov »

Greek exit polls are notoriously unreliable ;)

Still, looking good at this stage. Also looks like PASOK have held on to representation narrowly, might have been kinder to put them out of their misery.
"IS TONTY BLAIR BEHIND THIS???!!!!111???!!!"
PorFavor
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Re: Saturday 24th & Sunday 25th January 2015

Post by PorFavor »

ephemerid wrote:
Hobiejoe wrote:Polls just closed in Greece, exit polls should be out shortly. The Graun's live blog said actual results should be coming in in just a few hours.

Latest news says 35% to 39% Syriza - with the Greek system, that gives them a working majority.

If they do it, I will be celebrating!

:clap: :dance: :hug: :clap: :dance: :hug:
It may surprise you (it was you, wasn't it?) - that Clive Myrie (reporting live from Greece) doesn't look surprised.
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TechnicalEphemera
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Re: Saturday 24th & Sunday 25th January 2015

Post by TechnicalEphemera »

Tubby Isaacs wrote:
PorFavor wrote:I've watched (most of) the Natalie Bennett video. Wince-making. I have a lot of sympathy with some Green sentiments but should their leader not be more familiar with the content of their website and be able to explain things?

Polls have now closed in Greece.
The Citizens' Income looked like a massive liability to me straightaway. I think the membership have been far too easily impressed by people with their own hobby horses. It's as if the Tories have lapped up everything that's been in a Bow Group pamphlet- actually they probably have now, but they didn't use to. Problem is that you add up all the spending commitments and you've got problems, even when they're fairly modest (ie cheaper rail fares). Citizens Income is in a whole different league.
The citizens income is bollocks, not only is it expensive but it isn't a game changer either. It has to be revenue neutral by design, and it clearly isn't.
Release the Guardvarks.
Rebecca
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Re: Saturday 24th & Sunday 25th January 2015

Post by Rebecca »

Afternoon everyone.
Thanks for posting the Bennett interview,I think maybe the Greens might want to rethink their position re inclusion in the leaders debates.She failed to answer any of the questions,just waffled on about this fairer world we will be living in in 30 years time.
And though a citizens income sounds nice,there is no way the greens can show how they will pay for it,and even if they could,£71 per week is NOT going to pay your rent/mortgage/bills.
What she said about carers allowance is rubbish too,as you can earn £100 per week without CA being withdrawn.
I would have loved to have seen her telling her maj to live in a council house,what with the australian accent and all.
This is not a party anywhere near fit to govern,so just as well they won't be getting another 300 mps anytime soon.
Changing the subject,during the indy ref,I read many yes posters wanting the railways back in public ownership and no fracking.This could only be achieved with freedom from their dark overlords.Now Jim Murphy is proposing both measures,the snps at the Scotsman seem to have changed their minds.
ohsocynical
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Re: Saturday 24th & Sunday 25th January 2015

Post by ohsocynical »

ErnstRemarx wrote:
LadyCentauria wrote:
AngryAsWell wrote:...and now its the Greens turn for a bit of misleading press attention.

The Queen could be moved to a COUNCIL HOUSE if Green Party gains power

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/qu ... se-5034477" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Mwahahahaa. Why would someone who owns other houses in her own right need council housing? Just for starters.
I'm reminded of reading - and massively enjoying The Queen and I by Sue Townsend in the 90s. Fabulous stuff.
I was telling all on here yesterday that they should read it. And Camilla.
We hang the petty thieves and appoint the great ones to public office. – Aesop
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citizenJA
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Re: Saturday 24th & Sunday 25th January 2015

Post by citizenJA »

diGriz wrote:
refitman wrote:
diGriz wrote:Hi all, does anyone have a decent source that shows Osborne has borrowed more in five years than every Labour government combined? Thanks.
Fraser Nelson, over at the Spectator: http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehous ... an-labour/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Might also be worth having a trawl through Portes' articles in the Indy.
I will. I can source the more in three years than Labour's 13 but I really wanted to confirm more than all Labour governments combined which I've seen posted a lot on the net but I've not seen the figures.
http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/psa/publi ... ime-series

Statistical bulletin: Public Sector Finances, December 2013 This product is designated as National Statistics

Part of Public Sector Finances, December 2013 Release
Data in this release (3) Released: 22 January 2014 Download PDF

Net debt and net borrowing: time series
Public sector net debt as a percentage of GDP, 1975/76 to 2012/13
Excluding the temporary effects of financial interventions
This posted link above is probably what you're looking for. I've done some research & I've posted the dry documents full of promises & more promises without any of the original promises being kept. A lot of words & graphs & stuff.

Please find below links to the documents containing data demonstrating George Osborne is the worst Chancellor in the universe. I've got the links to his Emergency Budget speech in the Hansard record. The deficit was supposed to be gone now.
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Re: Saturday 24th & Sunday 25th January 2015

Post by Hobiejoe »

Is it just me, or is anyone else deriving a great deal of vicarious excitement and satisfaction in following an election in which a left-wing anti-austerity party is set fair for a cracking result?

Yes, I know, beware dodgy exit polls &tc, but it looks like the Greeks have taken against The Narrative laid out for them by The Great'n'The Good. I'll drink to that - στην υγειά σας Image
Tubby Isaacs
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Re: Saturday 24th & Sunday 25th January 2015

Post by Tubby Isaacs »

TechnicalEphemera wrote:
Tubby Isaacs wrote:
PorFavor wrote:I've watched (most of) the Natalie Bennett video. Wince-making. I have a lot of sympathy with some Green sentiments but should their leader not be more familiar with the content of their website and be able to explain things?

Polls have now closed in Greece.
The Citizens' Income looked like a massive liability to me straightaway. I think the membership have been far too easily impressed by people with their own hobby horses. It's as if the Tories have lapped up everything that's been in a Bow Group pamphlet- actually they probably have now, but they didn't use to. Problem is that you add up all the spending commitments and you've got problems, even when they're fairly modest (ie cheaper rail fares). Citizens Income is in a whole different league.
The citizens income is bollocks, not only is it expensive but it isn't a game changer either. It has to be revenue neutral by design, and it clearly isn't.
It can't be revenue neutral, unless the basic income is less than current JSA, surely?

Greens hate means testing, and have a funny view that it costs more than whatever they decide the extra universal amount should be.

There's a reason Gordo and all embraced it, and it probably wasn't because they wanted to create jobs in the DWP.
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ephemerid
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Re: Saturday 24th & Sunday 25th January 2015

Post by ephemerid »

seeingclearly wrote:

I think people who can are removing themselves, sanction or not, because the stress is too great, and family and friends are providing for them. Even if it's not happening to you the demoralising effects of watching others being sanctioned on a regular basis, and seeing the subsequent melt downs and knowing you can do or say nothing because of the security presence, really takes a toll. And when the people who get the sanctions are the very weak and very poor there's a whole load of mental baggage that accrues. When your turn comes around you have to maintain some outward equilibrium even while churning inside. Which can feel like being complicit. This is what was described to me. By someone likely to jump off. How this impacts households I don't know, and it's hard to find out what the knockin effects are. But if it's to keep minds intact, then I guess this is what families do for each other. There's other aspects but this is the one I know. :wall:

I think people are removing themselves as and when they can - if they feel they can manage, why would they subject themselves to the humiliation, the snooping, the unpaid work, the pointless courses, all that crap for no money or the threat of no money? If they can't manage, but are being made ill, those fortunate enough to have family and friends get rescued and supported - but that will have a financial and human cost too. But as long as government doesn't have to meet those costs, it doesn't care.

People who fight and make a fuss get "Compliance Visits" from DWP - although these have always happened to a limited degree, the increase is another recent development which is spreading, and it's no coincidence that people who take legal action are being targeted.

The viciousness of government in this is disgusting - it is becoming very obvious that the implementation of the WRA is designed to get people off benefit at any cost. Billions have been spent on this, millions are losing entitlement or just giving up.
Making a claim at all is hard enough; maintaining one is harder still; and if UC ever happens it will make matters much worse.

This is what the future looks like if the Tories get in again -
Claimant numbers WILL be cut, by fair means or foul - and however many people suffer, government can pretend it's managing the economy and all these people never needed benefits at all.
They don't care that it's not true; they don't care that these people have no work and no income; they see them as nothing more than just collateral damage in the pursuit of small government.
They don't give a shit if the tax receipts fall; they won't need them because they won't be paying out social security.

The sanctions system will ensure that an ever-increasing number of people are locked out of benefit for 3 years. People will adjust - they will steal and they will live on the fringes and they will cause problems. But that's OK because they can go to work in prison.
New "products" from the likes of Unum will become the norm and people will spend a fortune on cover that never pays out; firms like Maximus will take over the administration (they've started already as they run the Health and Work Service and ESA/WCA) and both will behave in exactly the same way they have in the USA and people will be left penniless.

This whole sanctions thing is just part of the slow dismantling of the welfare state - they're doing it with this, the NHS, education, justice. Just think what they've done in the past 5 years - it's a massive amount; and another 5 will do the job.

That's why I am getting really fed up with people from left-leaning parties nit getting behind Labour. I totally disapprove of their current shadow benefit people and their attitude generally; I don't like what they did on this in government and I am as sure as I can be that Labour will not be doing much to improve my situation any tome soon even if they win - but I do know that they will not do what the Tories have done and will continue to do.
We need Labour in now - and they need a working majority to halt the worst excesses; I have no idea if they will be open to negotiation on social security, and on a purely selfish basis I shouldn't be voting for them. But the greater good is more important and I seriously believe that this country is finished if the Tories get in again.

They really fucking scare me.
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Re: Saturday 24th & Sunday 25th January 2015

Post by ohsocynical »

PorFavor wrote:BBC News24 saying that the signs are that Syriza are on course for outright victory.
Someone commented in Twitter earlier that exit polls are notoriously inaccurate in Greece. Finger's crossed they've got it right this time.
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Re: Saturday 24th & Sunday 25th January 2015

Post by citizenJA »

diGriz wrote:Hi all, does anyone have a decent source that shows Osborne has borrowed more in five years than every Labour government combined? Thanks.
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Re: Saturday 24th & Sunday 25th January 2015

Post by ephemerid »

PorFavor wrote:
ephemerid wrote:
Hobiejoe wrote:Polls just closed in Greece, exit polls should be out shortly. The Graun's live blog said actual results should be coming in in just a few hours.

Latest news says 35% to 39% Syriza - with the Greek system, that gives them a working majority.

If they do it, I will be celebrating!

:clap: :dance: :hug: :clap: :dance: :hug:
It may surprise you (it was you, wasn't it?) - that Clive Myrie (reporting live from Greece) doesn't look surprised.

Yes, it was me, PF.

So now he will be known Chez Ephie as the "semi-permanently surprised Clive Myrie"

Good. I quite fancy him when he's not doing the :shock: thing.

As a person who lives in a country with a left-wing government (which does its best despite being regularly trodden on by the big money bullies elsewhere) I am very happy for the Greeks if they get one too.

Those people have suffered enough. A few tens of billions in WW2 reparations wouldn't go amiss either.

And they should get their Marbles back. In every respect.
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Re: Saturday 24th & Sunday 25th January 2015

Post by TechnicalEphemera »

Tubby Isaacs wrote:
TechnicalEphemera wrote:
Tubby Isaacs wrote: The Citizens' Income looked like a massive liability to me straightaway. I think the membership have been far too easily impressed by people with their own hobby horses. It's as if the Tories have lapped up everything that's been in a Bow Group pamphlet- actually they probably have now, but they didn't use to. Problem is that you add up all the spending commitments and you've got problems, even when they're fairly modest (ie cheaper rail fares). Citizens Income is in a whole different league.
The citizens income is bollocks, not only is it expensive but it isn't a game changer either. It has to be revenue neutral by design, and it clearly isn't.
It can't be revenue neutral, unless the basic income is less than current JSA, surely?

Greens hate means testing, and have a funny view that it costs more than whatever they decide the extra universal amount should be.

There's a reason Gordo and all embraced it, and it probably wasn't because they wanted to create jobs in the DWP.
I mean the proposal itself has to be revenue neutral. Given it screws around with taxation and personal allowances it can be self funding. Of course people have to pay more tax, and you have to convince people like me that the tax increase is being well spent; which I don't think you could.

Far better to change the sanctions regime, and stop persecuting the disabled because that is something most people will pay more tax to support.
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Re: Saturday 24th & Sunday 25th January 2015

Post by RogerOThornhill »

Remember that QE that was announced the other day?

How about it being used partly to buy Greek debt which is then written down to very low interest rates.

The timing of that announcement might not have been a coincidence...
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Re: Saturday 24th & Sunday 25th January 2015

Post by rebeccariots2 »

I've watched the NB interview now - and I agree with people saying she / the Greens really need to be on top of the figures and costings much more. The Leaders debates are definitely going to cover the economy ... leaders will have to know both their own key figures, the general UK figures and the wider context.

I'm going to commend Bennett however - yes, I am - for keeping going and actually being quite good at holding Neil at bay - she's obviously developed some good tactical practices in the way she phrases things and does some quick repetitions to stop him butting in. And I'm also going to commend her for being able to stay relatively cool, not lose her composure, and have some humour and a smile available at the end.

Then I'm going to commend Andrew Neil - ye gods, you are all shrieking - yes, I am - for a stiletto like line of attack in the way he cumulatively threaded all his questions together to build a damning case re the insecurity and contradictions between policies and their effects - the absence of costings, lower tax base, exodus of wealthier people, reduction in free trade / import controls, followed by general immigration relaxations, reduction of armed forces capabilities and arms generally, decriminalisation of membership of terrorist organisations.

Saw some discussion on other threads with differing views - some thinking it was real car crash - others saying it could never work having Green party policies quizzed by a capitalist.

I don't usually watch his Daily or Sunday politics. I'm assuming - and heard via tweets - that he gave a similar grilling to Jim Murphy and then Nicola Sturgeon.
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Re: Saturday 24th & Sunday 25th January 2015

Post by ohsocynical »

I fear that a lot of the middle classes who have gone off the Tories, will be voting Green.
When it comes to Labour I guarantee there is still a lingering impression of the bad old union days - not the miners - but the car industry and the newspaper print unions and if you dig a little deeper I promise you'd find their mental vision of a Labour voter is still wearing a cloth cap, and a muffler around the neck standing in a factory yard voting for an all out strike. Or living on an estate, with the lager, flat screen TV blah, blah, blah.

Television has a lot to answer for.

In a discussion on FTN a while back we were talking about the working class opting for the Tory party in the past because it was seen as the more respectable party. It wasn't because the Conservatives were going to make people in their position better off. It's all about perception and the Greens are going to fill the Tories spot.
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Re: Saturday 24th & Sunday 25th January 2015

Post by TechnicalEphemera »

ohsocynical wrote:I fear that a lot of the middle classes who have gone off the Tories, will be voting Green.
When it comes to Labour I guarantee there is still a lingering impression of the bad old union days - not the miners - but the car industry and the newspaper print unions and if you dig a little deeper I promise you'd find their mental vision of a Labour voter is still wearing a cloth cap, and a muffler around the neck standing in a factory yard voting for an all out strike. Or living on an estate, with the lager, flat screen TV blah, blah, blah.

Television has a lot to answer for.

In a discussion on FTN a while back we were talking about the working class opting for the Tory party in the past because it was seen as the more respectable party. It wasn't because the Conservatives were going to make people in their position better off. It's all about perception and the Greens are going to fill the Tories spot.
I can assure you the middle classes will not be voting green. The entire green economic policy is set up to hammer the middle classes, and turkeys don't vote for Christmas.

Of course if they do the Tory party will sink without trace.
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Re: Saturday 24th & Sunday 25th January 2015

Post by rebeccariots2 »

MENTALLY ME ‏@stuckinscared 22h22 hours ago
I'm disabled - I'm scared
My daughter is disabled - I'm scared for her
I have disabled friends - I'm scared for them
#FinishTheTories

Lisa Kelly ‏@MCLisax
@stuckinscared my husband is disabled, I am scared too. My dad is battling cancer, I am scared too. I am voting labour in May #labour
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Re: Saturday 24th & Sunday 25th January 2015

Post by Tubby Isaacs »

Greens aren't going to be anywhere near power though. It's a free lunch, in a "of course I'd pay more taxes" way.
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Re: Saturday 24th & Sunday 25th January 2015

Post by rebeccariots2 »

SNP MSP complains to Sturgeon over Ewing’s backing for Buccleuch coal gas plans
http://www.robedwards.com/2015/01/compl ... plans.html
A bitter behind-the-scenes row between two leading nationalists about exploiting onshore gas has resulted in a complaint to the First Minister, Nicola Sturgeon, the Sunday Herald can reveal.

The south Scotland MSP, Joan McAlpine, has privately protested about the behaviour of the Scottish energy minister, Fergus Ewing, after he carpeted her for criticising the Duke of Buccleuch’s plans to mine coalbed methane at Canonbie in Dumfries and Galloway.

Ewing’s undisguised support for developing underground gas was damaging the government’s credibility in communities across Scotland, McAlpine warned Sturgeon. Canonbie residents fear that they have been “sold out” in a “stitch-up” by the minister. ...
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Re: Saturday 24th & Sunday 25th January 2015

Post by citizenJA »

ImageFigure 3: Public Sector net debt, financial year
All data excluding public sector banks

Figure 3 illustrates public sector net debt excluding banking groups (PSND ex) between 1997/98 and 2013/14. PSND ex represents the amount of money the public sector owes to UK private sector organisations and overseas institutions, largely as a result of government liabilities on the bonds (gilts) and Treasury bills it has issued.

The increases in debt between 2008/09 and 2010/11 were larger than in the early part of the decade as the economic downturn meant public sector net borrowing excluding public sector banks (PSNB ex) increased. Since then it has continued to increase but at a slower rate.

At the end of 2013/14, PSND ex was £1,402.1 billion, an increase of £103.0 billion on the previous year.

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/psa/publi ... r-net-debt
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Re: Saturday 24th & Sunday 25th January 2015

Post by Willow904 »

TechnicalEphemera wrote:
ohsocynical wrote:I fear that a lot of the middle classes who have gone off the Tories, will be voting Green.
When it comes to Labour I guarantee there is still a lingering impression of the bad old union days - not the miners - but the car industry and the newspaper print unions and if you dig a little deeper I promise you'd find their mental vision of a Labour voter is still wearing a cloth cap, and a muffler around the neck standing in a factory yard voting for an all out strike. Or living on an estate, with the lager, flat screen TV blah, blah, blah.

Television has a lot to answer for.

In a discussion on FTN a while back we were talking about the working class opting for the Tory party in the past because it was seen as the more respectable party. It wasn't because the Conservatives were going to make people in their position better off. It's all about perception and the Greens are going to fill the Tories spot.
I can assure you the middle classes will not be voting green. The entire green economic policy is set up to hammer the middle classes, and turkeys don't vote for Christmas.

Of course if they do the Tory party will sink without trace.
The Green activist in the BBC piece had to be pretty well off, though. He had a huge detached house covered in solar panels and loads of land....I guess what I'm saying is that being green in general is harder when you're poor. New energy efficient boilers, washing machines, cavity wall insulation etc all take a really, really long to pay for themselves in savings, even if you're lucky enough to have the money up front to invest in them. How many people in the lowest income brackets vote or are likely to vote green? (And I mean people who have always been on minimum wage, not those who never went back to proper full-time work after being made redundant, having already paid off their large detached house....). It's a genuine question, I'm not trying to stereotype green supporters, it's just all the ones I've met do actually seem to be middle class and I had assumed this to be generally the case. I'm happy to be put right.
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Re: Saturday 24th & Sunday 25th January 2015

Post by diGriz »

Thanks CitizenJA. Appreciated and bookmarked. Image
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Re: Saturday 24th & Sunday 25th January 2015

Post by rebeccariots2 »

Iain Martin ‏@iainmartin1 8m8 minutes ago
Amjad Bashir, UKIP defector to Tories, deselected in 2012 by Respect says @georgegalloway - Whoops. Via @DJack_Journo http://www.respectparty.org/2015/01/25/ ... y-respect/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; …
From that link:
“Clearly Bashir does not have any real political principles or commitment.” said Respect MP George Galloway, “only naked opportunism and self-interest. He represents the revolving door principle in politics. The Tories are welcome to him because he will cause them embarrassment. Fortunately Respect was able to act before he did it to us.”
Galloway was unwilling to specify what the issues over Bashir’s sacking were. “But they were sufficiently grave to make us realise that he was not a fit and proper person to represent Respect. Clearly both UKIP and the Tories have lower standards,” the MP said.
:lol:

Sorry diGriz - you are entirely right about this story having eclipsed the enquiries re Leon Brittan in the press - which it shouldn't have if our press was working well. But I couldn't resist.
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citizenJA
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Re: Saturday 24th & Sunday 25th January 2015

Post by citizenJA »

diGriz wrote:Thanks CitizenJA. Appreciated and bookmarked. Image
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Re: Saturday 24th & Sunday 25th January 2015

Post by PorFavor »

Syriza's lead narrows to 10%

Syriza lead over New Democracy may not quite as large as first predicted according to an update exit poll. It puts Syriza 10 points ahead of New Democracy. (Guardian - 3 mins ago)
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Re: Saturday 24th & Sunday 25th January 2015

Post by rebeccariots2 »

Willow904 wrote:
TechnicalEphemera wrote:
ohsocynical wrote:I fear that a lot of the middle classes who have gone off the Tories, will be voting Green.
When it comes to Labour I guarantee there is still a lingering impression of the bad old union days - not the miners - but the car industry and the newspaper print unions and if you dig a little deeper I promise you'd find their mental vision of a Labour voter is still wearing a cloth cap, and a muffler around the neck standing in a factory yard voting for an all out strike. Or living on an estate, with the lager, flat screen TV blah, blah, blah.

Television has a lot to answer for.

In a discussion on FTN a while back we were talking about the working class opting for the Tory party in the past because it was seen as the more respectable party. It wasn't because the Conservatives were going to make people in their position better off. It's all about perception and the Greens are going to fill the Tories spot.
I can assure you the middle classes will not be voting green. The entire green economic policy is set up to hammer the middle classes, and turkeys don't vote for Christmas.

Of course if they do the Tory party will sink without trace.
The Green activist in the BBC piece had to be pretty well off, though. He had a huge detached house covered in solar panels and loads of land....I guess what I'm saying is that being green in general is harder when you're poor. New energy efficient boilers, washing machines, cavity wall insulation etc all take a really, really long to pay for themselves in savings, even if you're lucky enough to have the money up front to invest in them. How many people in the lowest income brackets vote or are likely to vote green? (And I mean people who have always been on minimum wage, not those who never went back to proper full-time work after being made redundant, having already paid off their large detached house....). It's a genuine question, I'm not trying to stereotype green supporters, it's just all the ones I've met do actually seem to be middle class and I had assumed this to be generally the case. I'm happy to be put right.
I thought pretty much the same re the bit on the activist. For a young person emerging into this society and job market now - unless they had parents with money - it would be very very difficult to set themselves up to be able to live like that. The activist was of an age where he had been able to acquire enough assets / land etc to choose to earn only half of the median wage and be able to live on that. I think the options would be very much restricted for people now .... probably have to look at far more community living rather than individual households.
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Re: Saturday 24th & Sunday 25th January 2015

Post by ohsocynical »

Owen Jones ‏@OwenJones84 10 mins10 minutes ago
A load of dazed, ecstatic leftists accustomed to glorious defeat adjusting to what looks like an actual victory in Athens tonight

@OwenJones84 it is time UK took this stance and look after the vulnerable

More
Captain Swing ‏@CountryStandard 5 mins5 minutes ago
@OwenJones84 Remember Manolis Glezos and Apostolos Santas, also Welsh Greek socialist Betty Bartlett Ambatielos

More
Pete Garrard ‏@LiverpoolPeteG 5 mins5 minutes ago
@OwenJones84 Great Greek news; Podemos in Spain too will strengthen. Documents shredded, money moved, tax staff bribed. The rich mobilise.

@dimayray
If Syriza gains control, it means the Greeks have used their vote to create change. That's a good lesson for us all.

Phil Fandango ‏@twitchingphil 13 mins13 minutes ago
@dimayray If only we had the party's to offer an alternative here. Or at least ones that have a chance of governing or influencing that.


Just look at that last Tweet. Defeatist or what.
We hang the petty thieves and appoint the great ones to public office. – Aesop
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Re: Saturday 24th & Sunday 25th January 2015

Post by PorFavor »

ohsocynical wrote:Owen Jones ‏@OwenJones84 10 mins10 minutes ago
A load of dazed, ecstatic leftists accustomed to glorious defeat adjusting to what looks like an actual victory in Athens tonight

@OwenJones84 it is time UK took this stance and look after the vulnerable

More
Captain Swing ‏@CountryStandard 5 mins5 minutes ago
@OwenJones84 Remember Manolis Glezos and Apostolos Santas, also Welsh Greek socialist Betty Bartlett Ambatielos

More
Pete Garrard ‏@LiverpoolPeteG 5 mins5 minutes ago
@OwenJones84 Great Greek news; Podemos in Spain too will strengthen. Documents shredded, money moved, tax staff bribed. The rich mobilise.

@dimayray
If Syriza gains control, it means the Greeks have used their vote to create change. That's a good lesson for us all.

Phil Fandango ‏@twitchingphil 13 mins13 minutes ago
@dimayray If only we had the party's to offer an alternative here. Or at least ones that have a chance of governing or influencing that.


Just look at that last Tweet. Defeatist or what.

More to the point - just look at that grocers' (or grocer's - depending on how many grocers you get to the pound) apostrophe.
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Re: Saturday 24th & Sunday 25th January 2015

Post by AngryAsWell »

JP Janson De Couet retweeted


Old Holborn ‏@Holbornlolz · 3m3 minutes ago
Golden Dawn end up 3rd with 6.2%
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Re: Saturday 24th & Sunday 25th January 2015

Post by TechnicalEphemera »

The thing people like Jones need to remember is that Greece is not the UK. When they say we should have an equivalent it isn't clear what that actually means. The UKs debts are not held on a foreign currency and we aren't running a 7% current account credit to pay back those debts.
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Re: Saturday 24th & Sunday 25th January 2015

Post by PorFavor »

BBC News24 are still saying (seconds ago) that a Syriza clear victory is expected.

Edited

I think that should be "BBC News24 is still saying . . . . "
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Re: Saturday 24th & Sunday 25th January 2015

Post by ohsocynical »

@Willow94

The Green activist in the BBC piece had to be pretty well off, though. He had a huge detached house covered in solar panels and loads of land....I guess what I'm saying is that being green in general is harder when you're poor. New energy efficient boilers, washing machines, cavity wall insulation etc all take a really, really long to pay for themselves in savings, even if you're lucky enough to have the money up front to invest in them. How many people in the lowest income brackets vote or are likely to vote green? (And I mean people who have always been on minimum wage, not those who never went back to proper full-time work after being made redundant, having already paid off their large detached house....). It's a genuine question, I'm not trying to stereotype green supporters, it's just all the ones I've met do actually seem to be middle class and I had assumed this to be generally the case. I'm happy to be put right.
You are quite right. To be honest some of the voters I was thinking of are the yummie mummy typs. I've heard them. They might have voted for Blair because he wasn't really Labour [He admitted it]. He wasn't in the Labour mold.

It's exactly the point I was trying to get across to Temulka a while back. People can't worry about the future when they need help now.

Thousands like me would love to have all the latest green technology, but can't afford it. Would love to eat only organic, can't afford it. I would love to know the small amount of meat Mr Ohso and I do eat is kindly farmed, but can't afford it.
If we could, it would make a lot of sense to support and ultimately vote Green, but, having been involved in the discussions over the last week and hearing the views of Green and Labour on the environment, I rather think Friends of the Earth are nearer my ideal.
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