FlyTheNest

Nicola Sturgeon (@NicolaSturgeon)

One last point - if PM thinks we won't know terms of Brexit by autumn next year, she must think her own timetable will fail.
March 16, 2017

(Politics Live, Guardian)

AnatolyKasparov wrote:...does May want to be the PM who saw its demise any more than Cameron did?

ScarletGas wrote:The gospel according to Saint Theresa.

"And, more than that, I think it would not be fair to the people of Scotland because they’d be being asked to take a crucial decision without the necessary information, without knowing what the future partnership will be or what the alternative of an independent Scotland would look like"

Does this remind you of anything? Say something that happened around June last year.

We ,of course had all the necessary information then didn't we!

Tubby Isaacs wrote:May has a point. If the issue of leaving the UK is that it's screwed up its relationship with its main market, then there's a case that you need to see the final relationship it will have with its main market.

When Cameron held the EU referendum our relationship with the EU wasn't up in the air.

Think Sturgeon is over reaching here. What if May were to announce a Customs Union position was her policy just before the referendum? Ruth Davidson would hammer her. "Not even leaving our main market! See! SNP only care about one thing"

Tubby Isaacs wrote:Leverage over May within the UK. That's not really an argument for leaving.

Eric_WLothian wrote:

Tubby Isaacs wrote:Leverage over May within the UK. That's not really an argument for leaving.

If Sturgeon gets her referendum, I wouldn't expect her to win. None of the big questions raised in 2014 have been answered and with the price of oil plummeting, the economic prognosis is considerably worse. The fact that 60% of Scottish voters voted for the UK to stay in the EU is irrelevant. In or out of the UK, Scotland will still be out of the EU. (It seems to me to be illogical to vote to remain in the EU but not in the UK).

If May blocks it, the Unionists (55% in 2014) are surely going to be satisfied. Why would any of them throw a hissy fit at not getting a referendum they don't want?

May could, of course, allow a referendum, gambling that there will be another 'no' vote that would effectively finish Sturgeon as FM.

Mhairi Hunter‏
@MhairiHunter

Tories! We're starting #Scotref campaigning in May. If you want it to go on for 4 years instead of 18 months that's up to you.

Tubby Isaacs wrote:

Eric_WLothian wrote:

Tubby Isaacs wrote:Leverage over May within the UK. That's not really an argument for leaving.

If Sturgeon gets her referendum, I wouldn't expect her to win. None of the big questions raised in 2014 have been answered and with the price of oil plummeting, the economic prognosis is considerably worse. The fact that 60% of Scottish voters voted for the UK to stay in the EU is irrelevant. In or out of the UK, Scotland will still be out of the EU. (It seems to me to be illogical to vote to remain in the EU but not in the UK).

If May blocks it, the Unionists (55% in 2014) are surely going to be satisfied. Why would any of them throw a hissy fit at not getting a referendum they don't want?

May could, of course, allow a referendum, gambling that there will be another 'no' vote that would effectively finish Sturgeon as FM.

I think there's some mileage for Sturgeon in "the facts have changed". An SNP-Labour coalition wasn't impossible then. Nobody expects Labour to be near UK government soon. Plus Brexit of course.

Did you see Richard Murphy? Unpleasant, unevidenced post that the GERs are a load of rubbish based on devious/incompetent union statisticians in London. Unpleasant Nats lapping it up. And Murphy lapping them up.

I've complained to UK Stats about it.

ScarletGas wrote:The gospel according to Saint Theresa.

"And, more than that, I think it would not be fair to the people of Scotland because they’d be being asked to take a crucial decision without the necessary information, without knowing what the future partnership will be or what the alternative of an independent Scotland would look like"

Does this remind you of anything? Say something that happened around June last year.

We ,of course had all the necessary information then didn't we!

Eric_WLothian wrote:

Tubby Isaacs wrote:

Eric_WLothian wrote: If Sturgeon gets her referendum, I wouldn't expect her to win. None of the big questions raised in 2014 have been answered and with the price of oil plummeting, the economic prognosis is considerably worse. The fact that 60% of Scottish voters voted for the UK to stay in the EU is irrelevant. In or out of the UK, Scotland will still be out of the EU. (It seems to me to be illogical to vote to remain in the EU but not in the UK).

If May blocks it, the Unionists (55% in 2014) are surely going to be satisfied. Why would any of them throw a hissy fit at not getting a referendum they don't want?

May could, of course, allow a referendum, gambling that there will be another 'no' vote that would effectively finish Sturgeon as FM.

I think there's some mileage for Sturgeon in "the facts have changed". An SNP-Labour coalition wasn't impossible then. Nobody expects Labour to be near UK government soon. Plus Brexit of course.

Did you see Richard Murphy? Unpleasant, unevidenced post that the GERs are a load of rubbish based on devious/incompetent union statisticians in London. Unpleasant Nats lapping it up. And Murphy lapping them up.

I've complained to UK Stats about it.

Can't see an SNP-Lab coalition working, personally. The SNP aren't known as the Tartan Tories for nothing!
Scotland will be out of the EU, either as an independent country or as part of the UK, so, unlike Sturgeon, I don't see that the facts have really changed - at least as far as Brexit is concerned. This leaves a choice of either sharing any UK-negotiated trade deals as part of the UK or trying to go it alone. I know which I prefer.

You may be interested in the analysis of Murphy's arguments here:

http://chokkablog.blogspot.co.uk/

Mhairi Hunter‏
@MhairiHunter

Tories! We're starting #Scotref campaigning in May. If you want it to go on for 4 years instead of 18 months that's up to you.

Tubby Isaacs wrote:

Mhairi Hunter‏
@MhairiHunter

Tories! We're starting #Scotref campaigning in May. If you want it to go on for 4 years instead of 18 months that's up to you.

I think they'll skip the first 3 years, and attack you for not sorting the schools etc.

Tubby Isaacs wrote: I reckon the Tories would be delighted to have 3 years of letting the SNP bang on about independence.

Tubby Isaacs wrote:Where would a transitional UK-EU deal leave the SNP? It might not be too bad, provided the EU are satisfied there aren't too many Wilders types with chances in general elections. Not easy to persuade people to leave the UK, if so.

Eric_WLothian wrote:

Tubby Isaacs wrote:Where would a transitional UK-EU deal leave the SNP? It might not be too bad, provided the EU are satisfied there aren't too many Wilders types with chances in general elections. Not easy to persuade people to leave the UK, if so.

I suspect the SNP are hoping to get in before any inkling of a deal - so they can campaign on a hypothetical Brexit result.

https://www.theguardian.com/tv-and-radi ... h-bake-off" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Noel Fielding and Sandi Toksvig to host new Great British Bake Off
New presenters will join new judge Prue Leith and Bake Off stalwart Paul Hollywood in the Channel 4 version of the show

Something of a throwback to classic 1970s Dutch ideals of openness and radicalism, Klaver has a Moroccan father and a mother of Indonesian descent. The far-right populism of Geert Wilders, rather than Muslim immigration, is the real threat to Dutch culture and traditions, he has repeatedly said.

Properly leftwing parties in Europe had to fight the rise of the far right by standing up for their ideals, he said on Wednesday.

“What I would say to all my leftwing friends in Europe: don’t try to fake the populace,” he said. “Stand for your principles. Be straight. Be pro-refugee. Be pro-European. We’re gaining momentum in the polls. You can stop populism.”

Tubby Isaacs wrote:

Eric_WLothian wrote:

Tubby Isaacs wrote:Where would a transitional UK-EU deal leave the SNP? It might not be too bad, provided the EU are satisfied there aren't too many Wilders types with chances in general elections. Not easy to persuade people to leave the UK, if so.

I suspect the SNP are hoping to get in before any inkling of a deal - so they can campaign on a hypothetical Brexit result.

That's exactly what they're trying. But controlling the timing as the UK government do, is an advantage. They can pop up with as soft a Brexit they can get away with in their party, and catch the SNP out. I don't yet buy that it's a gift to Sturgeon that the Scottish Parliament could be blocked from holding a referendum exactly when it wants.

Eric_WLothian wrote:

Tubby Isaacs wrote:

Eric_WLothian wrote: I suspect the SNP are hoping to get in before any inkling of a deal - so they can campaign on a hypothetical Brexit result.

That's exactly what they're trying. But controlling the timing as the UK government do, is an advantage. They can pop up with as soft a Brexit they can get away with in their party, and catch the SNP out. I don't yet buy that it's a gift to Sturgeon that the Scottish Parliament could be blocked from holding a referendum exactly when it wants.

Don't forget the SNP conference this weekend. A "nasty English Tories blocking the will of the Scottish people" gripe for the acolytes.

Tubby Isaacs wrote:Surely she wouldn't do a May and talk herself into trouble high on conference buzz.

adam wrote:There is much too much assumption here that electorates are reasonable and rational people who will make sensible decisions.

By the 90s, New Labour – flush with money under Tony Blair – were the big transgressors. Indeed, I remember doorstepping Blair over the amount of money spent in the Wirral South byelection. I later learned it was around £500,000, about 50 times the legal limit.

Dana Schwartz‏Verified account @DanaSchwartzzz 21h21 hours ago
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