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Re: Wednesday 8th April 2015

Posted: Wed 08 Apr, 2015 12:25 pm
by mikems
For tories social media is more or less just another way of hurling abuse at 'lefties'. They don't make good use of it, because they are bereft of rational arguments which people can agree with.

Re: Wednesday 8th April 2015

Posted: Wed 08 Apr, 2015 12:31 pm
by Willow904
Labour are more than holding their own on abolishing nom-dom status. The Tories are floundering and the press, for once, has little to help them. From Andrew Sparrow's blog:
The Tories have been in touch to point out that Jolyon Maugham, the independent tax expert that Labour has been citing (see 11.45am), is a Labour party member. (But, as I recall, they did not seem to mind when it transpired that a third of the business figures who signed the pro-Tory Telegraph letter were Tory donors.)
Labour did well to hold onto this until now, as announcing it after an impartial article in the FT calling for an end to nom-dom rules adds a lot of weight to their arguments. It also follows on well from Ed Miliband's pledge to act to make British dependencies acting as tax havens to fulfill new UN transparency objectives. It fits part of a larger global push to rein in tax avoidance and leaves the Tories on the wrong side of a global argument.

Re: Wednesday 8th April 2015

Posted: Wed 08 Apr, 2015 12:38 pm
by AngryAsWell
I've got a tab open with Duncan Bannatyne's opinion of the non-dom policy. Not sure if the link was from here or not, so will post it again just in case.

Duncan Bannatyne: Why Non-Doms have an ‘unfair’ advantage in business

http://www.bmmagazine.co.uk/news/duncan ... -business/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Re: Wednesday 8th April 2015

Posted: Wed 08 Apr, 2015 12:49 pm
by rearofthestore
So Nick Clegg says
Let’s look at maybe ending non-dom status after a certain period of time.
Obviously 215 years isn't long enough!

Re: Wednesday 8th April 2015

Posted: Wed 08 Apr, 2015 12:50 pm
by yahyah
SDLP [unsurprisingly] have stated they will support Labour if they win seats.

Notice Craig David's wife Joanna Gosling, a presenter on BBC News, is saying Labour's non-dom policy is a mess, and giggled when quoting Ed Ball's earlier statement.

She used to be pretty neutral, the stress of seeing the Tories going slowly down the drain must be getting to her.

Re: Wednesday 8th April 2015

Posted: Wed 08 Apr, 2015 12:53 pm
by danesclose
Afternoon all (said in a PC George Dixon voice)
In case anyone hasn't seen or heard it, the New Statesman has the full transcript of Naughtie skewering Morgan over the taxing of non-doms.

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/20 ... y-tax-what

Re: Wednesday 8th April 2015

Posted: Wed 08 Apr, 2015 1:26 pm
by utopiandreams
AnatolyKasparov wrote:I am nowhere near as pessimistic.

Of course *some* people - quite a large number - still uncritically consume what the MSM feeds them, but it is way down on what it used to be.

Not only is newspaper circulation, in particular, massively less than what it was - but surveys repeatedly show people far less ready to believe them as well.

Tories believe they can re-run the 1992 campaign this time round - they can't.
I'm not sure whether this was a response to me, AnatolyKasparov, if it were I do agree to some extent. Nevertheless I still think television is the main source of news and sadly most channels are not as even handed as I would like. Of course I have my own leanings so may have a biased view.

Re: Wednesday 8th April 2015

Posted: Wed 08 Apr, 2015 1:34 pm
by ScarletGas
Norman Smith just on the "State broadcaster" bigging up the conservative line on non doms.

No surprise that he is following CCO line but he appears to be totally at odds with the rest of the press pack.Even the right wing side of the press acknowledge the strength of the policy and it has wrong footed the tories.

His report was partial,not mentioning the Ed Balls rebuttal,and insisting that this had caused confusion and is "a gift to the conservatives"

He needs get get his backside out of Westminster and talk to some of the electorate rather than Lynton Crosby

Re: Wednesday 8th April 2015

Posted: Wed 08 Apr, 2015 1:41 pm
by FuriousGeorge
Afternoon all.

Not sure if this has any traction but this from BLT on the Guardian Live blog is intriguing...

"A thought.

Ian Cameron was a non-dom, yes?

One can inherit non-dom status.

David Cameron has never published his tax affairs.

If he's a non-dom and that comes out - that's the election."

Re: Wednesday 8th April 2015

Posted: Wed 08 Apr, 2015 2:05 pm
by PaulfromYorkshire
:lol:

Re: Wednesday 8th April 2015

Posted: Wed 08 Apr, 2015 2:19 pm
by pk1
FuriousGeorge wrote:Afternoon all.

Not sure if this has any traction but this from BLT on the Guardian Live blog is intriguing...

"A thought.

Ian Cameron was a non-dom, yes?

One can inherit non-dom status.

David Cameron has never published his tax affairs.

If he's a non-dom and that comes out - that's the election."
Wow.

Just wow !

Ok, how do we pursue this ?

Re: Wednesday 8th April 2015

Posted: Wed 08 Apr, 2015 2:21 pm
by ohsocynical
Michael Beall retweeted
Britain Elects ‏@britainelects 16 hrs16 hours ago
Latest YouGov poll (06 - 07 Apr):
LAB - 35% (+2)
CON - 33% (-1)
UKIP - 14% (+1)
LDEM - 8% (-2)
GRN - 5% (+1)

Re: Wednesday 8th April 2015

Posted: Wed 08 Apr, 2015 2:25 pm
by Tubby Isaacs
yahyah wrote:SDLP [unsurprisingly] have stated they will support Labour if they win seats.

Notice Craig David's wife Joanna Gosling, a presenter on BBC News, is saying Labour's non-dom policy is a mess, and giggled when quoting Ed Ball's earlier statement.

She used to be pretty neutral, the stress of seeing the Tories going slowly down the drain must be getting to her.
Craig David?!

Re: Wednesday 8th April 2015

Posted: Wed 08 Apr, 2015 2:28 pm
by FuriousGeorge
Tubby Isaacs wrote:
yahyah wrote:SDLP [unsurprisingly] have stated they will support Labour if they win seats.

Notice Craig David's wife Joanna Gosling, a presenter on BBC News, is saying Labour's non-dom policy is a mess, and giggled when quoting Ed Ball's earlier statement.

She used to be pretty neutral, the stress of seeing the Tories going slowly down the drain must be getting to her.
Craig David?!
Image

Re: Wednesday 8th April 2015

Posted: Wed 08 Apr, 2015 2:29 pm
by Tubby Isaacs
mikems wrote:For tories social media is more or less just another way of hurling abuse at 'lefties'. They don't make good use of it, because they are bereft of rational arguments which people can agree with.
Yes, they're hopeless. Labour in Scotland isn't very good at it, but better for England and Wales.

Re: Wednesday 8th April 2015

Posted: Wed 08 Apr, 2015 2:30 pm
by Tubby Isaacs
utopiandreams wrote:
AnatolyKasparov wrote:I am nowhere near as pessimistic.

Of course *some* people - quite a large number - still uncritically consume what the MSM feeds them, but it is way down on what it used to be.

Not only is newspaper circulation, in particular, massively less than what it was - but surveys repeatedly show people far less ready to believe them as well.

Tories believe they can re-run the 1992 campaign this time round - they can't.
I'm not sure whether this was a response to me, AnatolyKasparov, if it were I do agree to some extent. Nevertheless I still think television is the main source of news and sadly most channels are not as even handed as I would like. Of course I have my own leanings so may have a biased view.
See your point.

The BBC is disgraceful now.

Re: Wednesday 8th April 2015

Posted: Wed 08 Apr, 2015 2:31 pm
by ohsocynical
From February 2015
HSBC files reveal how UK's non-dom tax concession is being exploited
Leaked files show how controversial tax status, aimed at encouraging foreign investors to spend time in UK, is used to legally hide fortunes in HSBC’s Swiss private bank

http://www.theguardian.com/business/201 ... -exploited

Re: Wednesday 8th April 2015

Posted: Wed 08 Apr, 2015 2:37 pm
by TheGrimSqueaker
Tubby Isaacs wrote:
yahyah wrote:SDLP [unsurprisingly] have stated they will support Labour if they win seats.

Notice Craig David's wife Joanna Gosling, a presenter on BBC News, is saying Labour's non-dom policy is a mess, and giggled when quoting Ed Ball's earlier statement.

She used to be pretty neutral, the stress of seeing the Tories going slowly down the drain must be getting to her.
Craig David?!
Craig Oliver, OGRFG's Director of Communications.

Interesting things happening at the BBC. While many of them are still loyally acting as mouthpieces for CCHQ, Nick and Norman especially, a few seem to be breaking ranks; Eddie Mair has always done his own thing, but James Naughtie seems to be flexing his (slightly) leftie muscles a bit and even Evan Davis is skewering Tories with aplomb. Makes you wonder if they have seen the writing on the wall and are looking toward their survival in a post-Tory BBC, or whether Nick Robinson's enforced absence (and nice to see him making a recovery from his illness) has loosened control.

Re: Wednesday 8th April 2015

Posted: Wed 08 Apr, 2015 2:37 pm
by utopiandreams
FuriousGeorge wrote:... David Cameron has never published his tax affairs.

If he's a non-dom and that comes out - that's the election."
I should point out that I really don't know, FuriousGeorge, but I would have thought a serving Prime Minister would have to give up such status should they have it. I've looked at MPs' standards on the parliament website before responding, but to no avail. Perhaps there are others that could put us straight. If nobody here knows I may have a meander and pose such question to Andrew Sparrow or RClayton; he's generally up on such matters.

Re: Wednesday 8th April 2015

Posted: Wed 08 Apr, 2015 2:43 pm
by StephenDolan
BBC news app.

Key Points

Labour say they would end non-domicile tax status

But a video emerges of Ed Balls saying the policy would cost the country money

The Tories say the plans are "a shambles"

This bias is betraying the principles of the BBC.

Re: Wednesday 8th April 2015

Posted: Wed 08 Apr, 2015 2:43 pm
by FuriousGeorge
utopiandreams wrote:
FuriousGeorge wrote:... David Cameron has never published his tax affairs.

If he's a non-dom and that comes out - that's the election."
I should point out that I really don't know, FuriousGeorge, but I would have thought a serving Prime Minister would have to give up such status should they have it. I've looked at MPs' standards on the parliament website before responding, but to no avail. Perhaps there are others that could put us straight. If nobody here knows I may have a meander and pose such question to Andrew Sparrow or RClayton; he's generally up on such matters.
Yes thats what I would have thought to be honest. However with Dave, you never know... :-)

Of course if he had published his tax return like he promised to....

Re: Wednesday 8th April 2015

Posted: Wed 08 Apr, 2015 2:47 pm
by Willow904
pk1 wrote:
FuriousGeorge wrote:Afternoon all.

Not sure if this has any traction but this from BLT on the Guardian Live blog is intriguing...

"A thought.

Ian Cameron was a non-dom, yes?

One can inherit non-dom status.

David Cameron has never published his tax affairs.

If he's a non-dom and that comes out - that's the election."
Wow.

Just wow !

Ok, how do we pursue this ?
With great difficulty? Someone posted btl on the G that Ian Cameron was a non-dom but I wasn't sure so I tried to check and found nothing. Still, it's always worth reminding people that David Cameron promised to publish his tax returns and then didn't. What's he got to hide?

Re: Wednesday 8th April 2015

Posted: Wed 08 Apr, 2015 2:50 pm
by PaulfromYorkshire
For info, this is what Osborne promised on non-doms in October 2007
So let me be absolutely straight with you

There are currently a number of people living in Britain who register for non-domiciled tax status offshore.

It is a good thing for Britain that they live here and bring their talent and their investment to our economy.

I make this promise: I am not going to tax all that income as Gordon Brown has persistently threatened to do.

But in return for that promise and the certainty it brings, we will charge a flat annual levy of around £25,000 for those who register for non-domicile status.

It is easy to administer, difficult to avoid and strikes the right balance between a fair tax system and a competitive economy.

Re: Wednesday 8th April 2015

Posted: Wed 08 Apr, 2015 2:50 pm
by RogerOThornhill
I would imagine that BBC presenters must be quite nervous of seeing non-doms being targeted.

After all, given the tax status of some of them, it might be them and their 'companies' next...

Re: Wednesday 8th April 2015

Posted: Wed 08 Apr, 2015 2:55 pm
by FuriousGeorge
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politic ... peers.html

That's from 2009, suggesting that in at that time there was nothing to legally stop them being both an MP and a non-dom. So I suppose the question is did the Coalition bring any legislation in to address this when they were in power?

If they didnt, then I suppose technically he could be PM and non-dom.

Re: Wednesday 8th April 2015

Posted: Wed 08 Apr, 2015 2:58 pm
by TheGrimSqueaker
Speaking of shenanigans .......

We received a "We called by to ask for your vote" flyer from the Tories today ..... delivered by the Royal Mail!!

Re: Wednesday 8th April 2015

Posted: Wed 08 Apr, 2015 3:01 pm
by Willow904
utopiandreams wrote:
FuriousGeorge wrote:... David Cameron has never published his tax affairs.

If he's a non-dom and that comes out - that's the election."
I should point out that I really don't know, FuriousGeorge, but I would have thought a serving Prime Minister would have to give up such status should they have it. I've looked at MPs' standards on the parliament website before responding, but to no avail. Perhaps there are others that could put us straight. If nobody here knows I may have a meander and pose such question to Andrew Sparrow or RClayton; he's generally up on such matters.
Labour passed new rules in 2010, shortly before the election, that required those sitting in either house to be registered for tax in the UK. Lord Ashcroft gave up his non-dom status to comply. Five other Lords left and Zac Goldsmith had to relinquish his non-dom status to become an MP. It's all here in a Guardian article:

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/201 ... dom-status" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

What I don't know, of course, is whether giving up non-dom status is a permanent thing. Can you just resume it if you leave parliament? Could be an incentive there for someone with large overseas wealth not to abolish it. Of course, David Cameron never inherited large overseas wealth from his father, just a mere £300,000, which I though was a bit mean really when his brother and sisters inherited property running into the millions, but at least it makes him all squeaky clean regarding the possibility of benefiting from non-dom status at some point.....doesn't it?

Re: Wednesday 8th April 2015

Posted: Wed 08 Apr, 2015 3:02 pm
by pk1
Green Party EB:

[youtube]PPgS7p40ERg[/youtube]

Finally got it to embed !

Re: Wednesday 8th April 2015

Posted: Wed 08 Apr, 2015 3:02 pm
by ohsocynical
http://www.cambridgetax.co.uk/ctp/Expats_FAQs.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Re: Wednesday 8th April 2015

Posted: Wed 08 Apr, 2015 3:04 pm
by TheGrimSqueaker
FuriousGeorge wrote:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politic ... peers.html

That's from 2009, suggesting that in at that time there was nothing to legally stop them being both an MP and a non-dom. So I suppose the question is did the Coalition bring any legislation in to address this when they were in power?

If they didnt, then I suppose technically he could be PM and non-dom.
It is fairly unlikely though. Cameron pressured Zac Goldsmith into giving up his non dom status when he became a PPC, and he'd done so by the time he was elected; he'd have to be a major hypocrite to have done that if his own status was ..... oh, wait, I can spot the flaw in my own argument. :lol:

Re: Wednesday 8th April 2015

Posted: Wed 08 Apr, 2015 3:04 pm
by ScarletGas
Just spotted that evenTom Bradby (certainly no leftie) has tweeted that BBC , line on non doms is ridiculous.

When he criticises both the BBC and by implication CCO something has gone seriously wrong for the establishment.

By the way (not that it changes much) Joanna Gosling is either separated or actually divorced from Craig Oliver I seem to recall.

Re: Wednesday 8th April 2015

Posted: Wed 08 Apr, 2015 3:09 pm
by PorFavor
Simon Hughes on BBC News24 saying (re non-dom tax status) principles don't mean a thing. I paraphrase - but only slightly.

Re: Wednesday 8th April 2015

Posted: Wed 08 Apr, 2015 3:11 pm
by Tubby Isaacs
http://www.publicfinance.co.uk/news/201 ... overspend/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
The NHS in England is projected to have overspent its budget by more than £600m in 2014/15, an analysis by the Health Foundation has found, despite the service receiving an extra £900m in funding.
Fancy that, with an election coming....

Just like it underspent when debt looked like rising.

Re: Wednesday 8th April 2015

Posted: Wed 08 Apr, 2015 3:13 pm
by pk1
Richard Murphy is delighted at this non-dom annoucement.

Look at his reply to @Andrew's 9.14am post

:lol:

Re: Wednesday 8th April 2015

Posted: Wed 08 Apr, 2015 3:16 pm
by utopiandreams
Willow904 wrote:... Labour passed new rules in 2010, shortly before the election, that required those sitting in either house to be registered for tax in the UK. Lord Ashcroft gave up his non-dom status to comply. Five other Lords left and Zac Goldsmith had to relinquish his non-dom status to become an MP. It's all here in a Guardian article:

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/201 ... dom-status" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; ..
Thanks, Willow904. Well worth a read, it does vaguely ring a bell.
It was revealed today that five fellow peers have resigned from the Lords following the introduction of a new law that requires anyone sitting in either house of parliament to be registered in the UK for tax purposes.
Please follow Willow's link if that whets your appetite.

Edit: oh well seems I'm repeating you, Willow.

Re: Wednesday 8th April 2015

Posted: Wed 08 Apr, 2015 3:22 pm
by ohsocynical
Super-rich paying no income tax
Only a fraction of Britain's super-rich are paying income tax, the Standard reveals today.
At least 400 UK-based individuals earn, or are capable of making, £10m a year.
But only 65 paid income tax, according to the latest figures obtained under the Freedom of Information Act. The rest use a battery of sophisticated but legal techniques to avoid paying.

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/news ... me-tax.html

_______________________________

Examples of non-dom status: Wikepedia.

Most migrant workers (including those from within the EEA) would classify as non-doms. However, since the non-dom exemption applies only to income sourced from outside of the United Kingdom, the majority of people making use of the tax exemption are wealthy individuals with income from outside of the United Kingdom (e.g. from foreign savings). Typical such individuals include senior company executives, bankers, lawyers, business owners and international recording artists.
__________________________________

Non-doms. There are estimated to be 116,000 people born outside the UK or whose father was born outside the UK who do not regard the UK as their permanent home but live here for part of the year. These non-doms pay no UK tax on overseas income or gains that are not brought into the UK. However, after 7 years they must pay an annual fee of £90,000? (Thought it was £30,000.)

That said, according to Alexander Lebedev, a Russian oligarch and owner of The Independent, London is now the money laundering capital of the world with UK firms aiding corrupt officials and criminals from across the globe to hide trillions of US dollars of ill-gotten gains. He claims that British-based banks have helped hide more than US$6trillion in nefarious payments and criminal proceeds since 2000 and warned that the City of London is now the epicentre of a global financial services racket. He also claims that since the turn of the millennium as much as US$1trillion has been stolen from Russia. Seems like the UK National Crime Agency, which only came into existence in 2013, will need a lot of 'picks and shovels' in the coming years!

http://www.just1world.org/offshore-tax-havens.htm

Re: Wednesday 8th April 2015

Posted: Wed 08 Apr, 2015 3:35 pm
by letsskiptotheleft
Marginal Con-Lab seats, 10 of them at 16.00hrs.

Here we go again.

Re: Wednesday 8th April 2015

Posted: Wed 08 Apr, 2015 3:37 pm
by ohsocynical
ITV News ‏@itvnews 3 hrs3 hours ago
Ed Balls: Tories edited my non-dom interview http://www.itv.com/news/update/2015-04- ... dom-video/
_________

Patrick Wintour ‏@patrickwintour 4 hrs4 hours ago
When you are on the wrong side of popular opinion and you have to edit a tape to distort meaning, and are pleased with yourself, a problem.
__________

John Prescott ‏@johnprescott 3h3 hours ago
Hi @Conservatives. Maybe you'd like to edit this video too? He's a Tory MP against #nomdom
https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=p ... Adqimz4rXU
___________

Boboty ‏@robyatkins 4 mins4 minutes ago
The tories hate it, the bbc hate it, the telegraph fiddled with the video cos they hate it. Ed got it right again!”
___________

Tim Montgomerie @montie 3 hrs3 hours ago
One thing about the non dom policy. It's an issue rather than an opinion poll, letter or stunt. This dull election feels real for first time

Re: Wednesday 8th April 2015

Posted: Wed 08 Apr, 2015 3:40 pm
by utopiandreams
All this talk of non-dom status has reminded me that barely a month ago IDS claimed on three separate occasions that I saw that HMRC had collected an extra £100bn through either tightening of loopholes or prosecutions, 1600 one day and 2600 the next. Of course it was all nonsense designed to deflect attention away from his UC debacle. I did comment at the time on the G that Osborne must have been furious as the latest tax return figures were due any day. Just saying as I'd hate people to forget those that are running our ministries. 'And while I'm on such topic would the voters of Chingford and Woodford Green care to ponder on this before casting their vote, whatever their loyalties may be? Of course there is so much more we can lay at his door, but lying and idiocy shall do for starters.

Re: Wednesday 8th April 2015

Posted: Wed 08 Apr, 2015 3:45 pm
by ohsocynical
Lord Ashcroft, the mystery peer who is keeping the Tories guessing

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/po ... 86686.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Re: Wednesday 8th April 2015

Posted: Wed 08 Apr, 2015 3:51 pm
by AngryAsWell
pk1 wrote:Richard Murphy is delighted at this non-dom annoucement.

Look at his reply to @Andrew's 9.14am post

:lol:
Have looked but can't find it ...

Re: Wednesday 8th April 2015

Posted: Wed 08 Apr, 2015 3:54 pm
by TheGrimSqueaker
PaulfromYorkshire wrote::lol:
As somebody said on Twitter, if that was my child I would be so proud!

Re: Wednesday 8th April 2015

Posted: Wed 08 Apr, 2015 3:55 pm
by StephenDolan
AngryAsWell wrote:
pk1 wrote:Richard Murphy is delighted at this non-dom annoucement.

Look at his reply to @Andrew's 9.14am post

:lol:
Have looked but can't find it ...
http://www.taxresearch.org.uk/Blog/2015 ... om-status/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Re: Wednesday 8th April 2015

Posted: Wed 08 Apr, 2015 4:01 pm
by pk1
Ashcroft has Labour gaining Harrow East, Hove, Morecambe & Lunesdale as well as Pudsey Stockton South

Re: Wednesday 8th April 2015

Posted: Wed 08 Apr, 2015 4:04 pm
by StephenDolan
pk1 wrote:Ashcroft:
Cool. Lib Dems getting hammered. It's almost as if the loaned 2010 Lib Dem voters that were previously Labour voters have returned.

Re: Wednesday 8th April 2015

Posted: Wed 08 Apr, 2015 4:11 pm
by letsskiptotheleft
James Wharton, the prematurely aged Brylcreamed Tory looks like he's on his way out.

All not lost. But Kingswood, God Lord, wake up Bristol.

Re: Wednesday 8th April 2015

Posted: Wed 08 Apr, 2015 4:12 pm
by ohsocynical
Tom Wilson ‏@feedthedrummer 10 mins

Ashcroft poll shows Labour kicking out last Tory in Teesside, 5 point lead for @LouiseBaldock

Re: Wednesday 8th April 2015

Posted: Wed 08 Apr, 2015 4:21 pm
by ohsocynical
Reasons to be cheerful:

Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB 3 mins3 minutes ago

Of the 10 @LordAshcroft seat polls UKIP sees falls of up to 10% on his previous polling

Re: Wednesday 8th April 2015

Posted: Wed 08 Apr, 2015 4:24 pm
by Tubby Isaacs
Let's Skip has never liked this Ford bloke. She's wise on this evidence.
Rob Ford (Britain) ‏@robfordmancs 13m13 minutes ago
@NCPoliticsUK Kingswood has v talented MP too - Chris Skidmore. Strong local profile, smart, effective.
Pure frontbench mouthpiece with conflicts of interest.

Re: Wednesday 8th April 2015

Posted: Wed 08 Apr, 2015 4:39 pm
by ohsocynical
Re: yesterday's query about getting the vote out.

Huw Irranca-Davies retweeted

Paul Goodman ‏@PaulGoodmanCH 27 mins27 minutes ago

In all ten marginals in today's @LordAshcroft polling, more voters say they have heard from Labour than the Conservatives #GroundWar