Owen Smith leadership

yahyah · Post by **yahyah** » Fri 12 Aug, 2016 8:15 am

If anyone sees a video link of last night's debate, please can you post it here ?
Thanks.

pala · Post by **pala** » Fri 12 Aug, 2016 11:28 am

Hustings 11/08/2016

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4xrpWKON1JQ

It's on the Labour Party YouTube Channel by the next day

ohsocynical · Post by **ohsocynical** » Fri 12 Aug, 2016 11:35 am

Dear Owen Smith: backing the racist prevent strategy won't win you this election, it will lose Labour votes.

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/ali-mil ... _hp_ref=uk" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

yahyah · Post by **yahyah** » Fri 12 Aug, 2016 1:28 pm

Thanks pala.

AngryAsWell · Post by **AngryAsWell** » Sat 13 Aug, 2016 9:58 pm

I’ll overturn disadvantage. Theresa May’s Tories will entrench it’
Owen Smith

Labour leadership candidate Owen Smith says scrapping the subsidy for privileged private schools will raise hundreds of millions of pounds for Sure Start

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... are_btn_tw" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

yahyah · Post by **yahyah** » Mon 15 Aug, 2016 7:48 am

''Owen Smith accuses government of covering up privatisation in the NHS''.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/ho ... 90411.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

He's making a speech today at Trafford General hospital, the first in the world to give free healthcare for all.

AngryAsWell · Post by **AngryAsWell** » Mon 15 Aug, 2016 9:11 pm

Young Labour Activist: Why I Now...support Owen

http://www.owen2016.com/young_labour_activist" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

AngryAsWell · Post by **AngryAsWell** » Mon 15 Aug, 2016 10:45 pm

Emergency motion at this evenings CLP meeting (Perth & Kinross)
No confidence motion in JC

" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Tue 16 Aug, 2016 11:06 am

Hmm, have you checked the date on that?

yahyah · Post by **yahyah** » Tue 16 Aug, 2016 12:50 pm

Oh. is it an oldie ?

yahyah · Post by **yahyah** » Tue 16 Aug, 2016 12:52 pm

June 2016. Maybe they've all seen the light since then. Or not depending on your viewpoint.

Am just going over to the main thread, bet I got some flak for posting it there

yahyah · Post by **yahyah** » Tue 16 Aug, 2016 5:43 pm

Polling of the public, via Mike Smithson:

Who'd make best Labour leader: Smith 58%, Corbyn 42%
Who'd make best PM: Smith 62%, Corbyn 38%

http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics ... 21461.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

yahyah · Post by **yahyah** » Wed 17 Aug, 2016 7:00 am

Leadership hustings today are early - 9am on BBC2
Victoria Deryshire is presenting.

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Wed 17 Aug, 2016 12:19 pm

yahyah wrote:Polling of the public, via Mike Smithson:

Who'd make best Labour leader: Smith 58%, Corbyn 42%
Who'd make best PM: Smith 62%, Corbyn 38%

http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics ... 21461.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Good figures for Smith on the face of it.

However, it is likely that his "support" includes a lot of people who would *never* vote Labour in any circumstances. Such "support" is effectively worthless.

What we really need is questions like this confined to either present or possible Labour supporters (the latter group is of even greater interest, arguably)

Lost Soul · Post by **Lost Soul** » Wed 17 Aug, 2016 5:13 pm

Local CLP nomination meeting ( Sheffield Heeley ) - the one I didn't go to and as suggested - I do regret it...
Not such a landslide is it ?

Dear

I am emailing to inform you to inform you of the result of the Nomination Meeting held last Friday.

The results were as follows:

Jeremy Corbyn 61 votes

Owen Smith 57 votes

Spoilt papers 2

This result has been forwarded to the Labour Party nationally.

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Wed 17 Aug, 2016 7:40 pm

Lost Soul

Actual numbers in clp nominations

338 of which (309 no nom)

285 C 53 S

(95%reporting))15,066 Corbyn 7,585 -Smith

between 7-15 % turnout of members in clp meets.

I am in a neighbouring constituency,similarly I didn't attend.There are some claims of the quieter Smith non attendee effect but I am not sure and only just over half made a nominiation.

Lost Soul · Post by **Lost Soul** » Wed 17 Aug, 2016 8:01 pm

Thanks HindleA

Much is being made of our result being a Corbyn endorsement - but it's pretty close , a lot closer than I was expecting.
particularly for the People's republic of South Yorkshire.
7 to 15% is very low - surely tells us very little about potential results.

Though a high Corbyn score made tickle Smith supporters into putting their X in a box.

yahyah · Post by **yahyah** » Thu 18 Aug, 2016 7:53 am

I stayed off the internet after coming in from gardening yesterday so missed this, apologies if someone linked this on the main thread yesterday.

https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Mike Smithson tweeting on yesterday's IpspsMori polling.
Not good.
Full tables here https://www.ipsos-mori.com/Assets/Docs/ ... tables.pdf" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Am skipping most of the daily thread as life is too short, - only so much of being told off for being wrong that one can take, after that it just gets boring

Not sure some realise that you can bump people off social media and forums, but can't do that to 40 million voters in the voting booth. It was what the Cybernats failed to realise.

The elephant in the room question, and the one that seems to cause most grump from hardcore Corbyn supporters if it is raised, is how exactly will Labour under Corbyn prosper in electoral terms.

Mike Smithson@
Terrible leader satisfaction for Corbyn from Labour voters. Just 39% say they are satisfied.

MikeSmithson@
Today's 68% net satisfaction gap that May has over Corbyn with @Ipsos Mori is the largest that
I can recall between PM and Leader of Opposition.

MikeSmithson@
If this was a normal party this polling would finish off Corbyn

MikeSmithson@
IpsosMori
Cons 45% (+9)
Labour 34% (-1)
Lib Dems 7% (-4)
UKIP 6% ( -2%)

Someone wake me when the nightmare is over. Euphoria over winning nominations from a small % of eligible voters in CLPs looks pretty meaningless when those figures are so clear, and other polls show similar. May is seen as competent, the honeymoon period will probably wane, but that shouldn't be taken for granted.

No doubt Anatoly, even handed as always, can find something positive to say

yahyah · Post by **yahyah** » Thu 18 Aug, 2016 8:15 am

HindleA wrote:Lost Soul

Actual numbers in clp nominations

338 of which (309 no nom)

285 C 53 S

(95%reporting))15,066 Corbyn 7,585 -Smith

between 7-15 % turnout of members in clp meets.

I am in a neighbouring constituency,similarly I didn't attend.There are some claims of the quieter Smith non attendee effect but I am not sure and only just over half made a nomination.

Can remember one of the articles on Mike Smithson's blog, pointing out that Corbyn's campaign, and Momentum, have focused on getting as many nominations as possible whereas Smith's campaign have concentrated their efforts elsewhere. Presumably because nominations aren't that important, other than to boost morale of the activists, they don't represent all the party CLPs as a lot don't bother, and only a small proportion of members vote in them - about 11% of those eligible in the CLPs who do nominate on average.

I just wish the wider view was about how to beat the Tories, not winning small, meaningless battles.
Yesterday's polling shows how much Labour are behind, in so many ways.

yahyah · Post by **yahyah** » Thu 18 Aug, 2016 8:44 am

If Anatoly does pop in -

I notice the Indie have published a poll similar to that the Telegraph used to run.
It asks people what they think will happen, which is not the same as how they will/would vote.

Cannot really see the point of a poll like that, other than to give the paper a chance for an ambiguous headline.
Think the Telegraph used to use it to give the Tories a boost.

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Fri 19 Aug, 2016 11:37 am

No, the latest polling is not good. But is that a surprise, given everything that has gone on?

A few things, though. The latest MORI poll originally had the Tories at 41%, it was only bumped up to 45% (implausibly high IMO, given that they have not managed that in a GE since 1979) once likelihood to vote was taken into account. It is fairly predictable that Tory supporters tell pollsters they are more likely to turn out at present.

Theresa May's personal ratings are high, but also soft IMO. After all, its not like she has actually *done* much so far - and she is thus still very much a blank slate who people can project their own desires on to (and about few things is this truer than the vexed question of our future post referendum - many of the 52% hope "Brexit is Brexit" means what they want it to mean, lots in the 48% still hope she will sort out a sensible "soft Brexit" deal) Sooner or later she is going to have to actually govern, and that means making actual choices and p***ing people off.

As for Labour, we can only hope that next month brings *some* sort of resolution......

yahyah · Post by **yahyah** » Fri 19 Aug, 2016 11:45 am

Saw this on Mike Smithson's twitter feed.

Leightonvw
''No serious dispute that Labour under Jeremy Corbyn will lose election by big margin.
But does that matter to Labour members ? Not so sure''

Leighton V Williams is a Prof. of Economics & Finance, Director of the Political Forecasting Unit & Director of the Betting Research Unit at Nottingham Trent University.

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Fri 19 Aug, 2016 11:51 am

Of course it matters to most of them, and to suggest otherwise is incredibly patronising tbh.

(and literally nothing in politics is in "no dispute", especially not in times like now)

The problem for Corbyn's internal opponents is that many Labour people are not convinced they would do any better. Add to that the equally undoubted fact that many of them are (rightly IMO) not liked or trusted, and we see why Smith has an uphill task - despite the quite attractive program he has put forward.

yahyah · Post by **yahyah** » Fri 19 Aug, 2016 1:08 pm

He says he is not so sure. Not a patronising statement when you see what some members think/write/say ?
Note I use the word some, Williams should have too.

But it is always interesting to see what experts think isn't it ?
People ignoring them in the Brexit vote didn't work out well.

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Fri 19 Aug, 2016 1:20 pm

Some of the people who think/write/say stuff like that are actually trolls posing as "Corbynistas". A few have been exposed now.

There are people in the Labour party who don't particularly care about winning elections - there always have been, it didn't start last summer (I really would recommend people reading back issues of left publications such as New Statesman/Tribune if they ever get the chance, to dispel any doubts about this)

During his time as party leader, Neil Kinnock often used a rhetorical formulation along the lines of "purity without power is pointless, but power without principles is futile and self defeating" - the latter was partly a way of getting at the SDP and its offspring, but no less true for that. If people on the hard left have too often been seduced by the allure of the former, then much of the present day party "establishment" has succumbed to the latter (maybe including Neil, to some degree)

If Corbyn wins again - and if he does, most of those re-electing him will be well aware of his shortcomings and in no way blind cultists intoxicated by their own "purity" - it will be because they do not trust his opponents to oppose the government in a meaningful way *as well as* try to get elected. Indeed, the problem is that many don't even get that doing the former is now necessary to have any hope of achieving the latter - as in most of the developed world now, people are no longer seduced by "me-tooism" (even if lobby hacks still are)

Forgive me for rambling a bit here, this is me "thinking aloud" to a degree

AngryAsWell · Post by **AngryAsWell** » Fri 19 Aug, 2016 8:33 pm

Why I had to leave Corbyn’s dysfunctional shadow cabinet
Heidi Alexander
"It wasn’t good enough for the leader to routinely defer to his shadow chancellor when confronted with a difficult decision – a shadow chancellor who on three separate occasions undermined my efforts to agree collective positions on health matters. It wasn’t good enough for the leader to say one thing to me, only for his political secretary to phone a day later and say: “He may have said that, but I know what he really thinks.” It wasn’t good enough for the leader to read his position from a typed up script at shadow cabinet meetings discussing the prospect of military action against Isis in Syria or the EU referendum. And it wasn’t good enough that whenever he appeared on TV, his description of a process, or his analysis of a problem, ended in confusion or despair on the party’s position – article 50, counterterrorism, “7.5 out of 10” on Brexit.

I hated being part of something so inept, so unprofessional, so shoddy. There was no effort to build a team. Good people recruited to his office soon left."

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... ow-cabinet" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

yahyah · Post by **yahyah** » Sat 20 Aug, 2016 7:38 am

Owen Smith seems to be getting criticism because of his complaint that Corbyn only met with him once in nine months.

Corbyn supporters have been tweeting & sharing that Corbyn met Smith at the weekly Shadow Cabinet meetings. The implication being that Smith is therefore wrong, lying or should feel ashamed [embarrassed face icons used] at being so wrong in what he said.

It made me laugh to see just how desperate some seem to disparage Smith.

How long is the Shadow Cabinet meeting. A few hours ? Half a day with tea breaks ?

There are thirty five Shadow cabinet members eligible to attend those meetings.
Each with an important brief and responsibility. Divide the number of people attending with the number of hours available to discuss direction/plans/work achieved/future aims and there surely can't be much time available. That's without the other issues that Shadow Cabinets will have to discuss, with the 24 hour news cycle pushing the agenda.

What successful organisation or company would expect its senior staff or management to work effectively without regular one to one or smaller team meetings to motivate, set targets, discuss progress etc ?
I asked my husband, who had a long career in senior management and training for several household name companies, and attended Oxford University Templeton College's courses on such matters as team working, leadership etc., what he thought. He just shook his head, and said the more he hears the more depressed he feels about his vote last year.

Maybe Labour should split the leader job into a job share.
Corbyn to address crowds of supporters, and do that sort of thing he's good at and loves doing, and Smith, or someone else, to work on the important communication and team management elements of the job ?

AngryAsWell · Post by **AngryAsWell** » Sat 20 Aug, 2016 9:44 pm

Labour politician with the biggest mandate of all backs @owensmith2016

" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

yahyah · Post by **yahyah** » Sun 21 Aug, 2016 7:14 am

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/201 ... lls-labour" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Can see the bitter attacks Sadiq is getting on social media.

They can't all be M15.

A lot of people seem to think it was Corbyn that won London and Sadiq has betrayed Corbyn and them.

So, how come Labour's London Assembly vote went down and Sadiq's vote beat that of the party ?

If it was the Corbyn magic wouldn't there have been a significant rise, rather than loss, of votes for Labour seats ?

Mile Smithson says Sadiq's win was his own.

yahyah · Post by **yahyah** » Sun 21 Aug, 2016 9:22 am

GeorgeEaton@

London polling approval ratings: Sadiq +30, Corbyn -25.

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Sun 21 Aug, 2016 10:09 am

Mike Smithson is not exactly an unbiased observer when it comes to Corbyn tbf.

pk1 · Post by **pk1** » Sun 21 Aug, 2016 10:56 am

Smithson has no dog in the fight though. He's a LD remember.

As for London, remember too that Sadiq was only seen with Corbyn twice throughout the campaign. I know many people who actively went canvassing for Sadiq but who wouldn't vote for Corbyn, either in the leadership election nor at a general election - they'd abstain rather than vote for him, as would I.

yahyah · Post by **yahyah** » Sun 21 Aug, 2016 11:01 am

You seem to be moving to the dark side Anatoly

Careful, it happened to me, and took a lot of grief to move back.

Maybe I should just read pro-Corbyn stuff ? I tried that for a while, it doesn't actually help.

yahyah · Post by **yahyah** » Sun 21 Aug, 2016 11:02 am

Should think Smithson would like a Labour leader Farron could work with in the event of a hung parliament.

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Sun 21 Aug, 2016 11:04 am

No, I'm still voting for Smith. But you admit you lacked objectivity re JC in the past, which is why it is needed all the more now

pk1 - Smithson's hostility to Corbyn has been evident from the start - yes he is a LibDem, a right leaning one who was a fan of Dave for a shamefully long time

yahyah · Post by **yahyah** » Sun 21 Aug, 2016 11:21 am

I'm not sure I lacked objectivity about him when I voted for him.
I wanted Labour to move to the left, fell for his 'gentler politics, spiel.
My husband reminds me I warned him that Corbyn came with a hell of a lot of baggage, and there would be some unpleasant fellow travellers in his corner. Have been proved right. Should have listened to my better instincts last year.

It was actually starting to listen to interviews on playback, like McDonnell unable to actually deny his response when told Labour could split and things like that, and reading source material, other than taking it through spun mediation that helped change my mind not to support him any longer.

So, what is your view of the London results then ? How is the difference between Sadiq's ratings and votes compared to Corbyn and the Assembly votes to be understood ?

yahyah · Post by **yahyah** » Mon 22 Aug, 2016 7:00 am

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-s ... s-37150430" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Kezia Dugdale endorses Owen. I suppose she'll get booed, like Sadiq was last night.
Video of it here:
" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

&

''I founded a Momentum branch but I'm voing for Owen Smith''
https://leftfootforward.org/2016/08/i-f ... wen-smith/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

yahyah · Post by **yahyah** » Mon 22 Aug, 2016 7:22 am

Mike Smithson implied the other day that there would be a YouGov poll of Labour members out this week.
Now he doesn't seem to know if there will be.

If anyone sees one, can you post it here please ?
Will be busy this week, and won't have time or patience to wade through the main thread.

See you later you 'orrible, 'sanctimonious, spiteful bullies'

Keep your chins up and plates full of cake.

yahyah · Post by **yahyah** » Mon 22 Aug, 2016 8:58 am

Owen Jones@
If a Labour politician who nominated Corbyn and is popular with the electorate is seen as the enemy, there is no hope.

tinybgoat · Post by **tinybgoat** » Mon 22 Aug, 2016 10:09 am

yahyah wrote:Mike Smithson implied the other day that there would be a YouGov poll of Labour members out this week.
Now he doesn't seem to know if there will be.

If anyone sees one, can you post it here please ?
Will be busy this week, and won't have time or patience to wade through the main thread.

See you later you 'orrible, 'sanctimonious, spiteful bullies'
Keep your chins up and plates full of cake.

You want us to go & get stuffed.

Ok. Yum, munch.

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Mon 22 Aug, 2016 12:10 pm

yahyah wrote:Owen Jones@
If a Labour politician who nominated Corbyn and is popular with the electorate is seen as the enemy, there is no hope.

Jones has had plenty to say since last night, by no means all of it aimed at Corbynistas. His take down of the execrable Tom Blenkinsop was

yahyah · Post by **yahyah** » Mon 22 Aug, 2016 12:34 pm

tinybgoat wrote:
yahyah wrote:Mike Smithson implied the other day that there would be a YouGov poll of Labour members out this week.
Now he doesn't seem to know if there will be.

If anyone sees one, can you post it here please ?
Will be busy this week, and won't have time or patience to wade through the main thread.

See you later you 'orrible, 'sanctimonious, spiteful bullies'
Keep your chins up and plates full of cake.
You want us to go & get stuffed.
Ok. Yum, munch.

In the nicest possible way, and without causing any adverse health events of course.

yahyah · Post by **yahyah** » Mon 22 Aug, 2016 12:42 pm

Saw some of Owen's speech from Pontypridd.
Some interesting ideas there, and he seems to have gone up a notch, seems more confident.

Liked it, and have moved to a position of feeling very positive about his potential.
He's also very likeable, if you ignore the bile from the usual suspects.
He also seems to have direct ways of trying to heal the rift in the party and reassure people that members will have more sway.

Have gone to feeling like a supporter of Owen's, rather than just thinking 'he can't do any worse than Corbyn'

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Mon 22 Aug, 2016 12:59 pm

Its not Smith I worry about - I think his instincts are mostly sound. Its the "dark forces" in the background that would be emboldened by his victory.

I hope that he is willing and able to stand up to them.

yahyah · Post by **yahyah** » Mon 22 Aug, 2016 1:42 pm

Some people are worried by 'dark forces' that would be emboldened by another Corbyn win.
It's yet another reason why I won't back him again.

and sorry if am behind the loop on Dugdale, the Beeb were pushing it as news.
I meant to put 'hardly a surprise' but forgot to. She's a brave lass, getting flak from the SNP and Labour people.
Must need a skin as thick as a rhino.

Can't remember if Carwyn's endorsed Smith, but would be shocked if he doesn't.

AngryAsWell · Post by **AngryAsWell** » Mon 22 Aug, 2016 2:12 pm

Susan Wilde ‏@Susan_Wilde 6h6 hours ago
If your ballot arrives today and you're not sure why we are so keen on #OwenSmith for #LabourLeadership watch this:

" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

AngryAsWell · Post by **AngryAsWell** » Mon 22 Aug, 2016 3:01 pm

Labour leadership: Could Corbyn lose?

http://ciceroelections.com/2016/08/22/c ... rbyn-lose/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Mon 22 Aug, 2016 4:24 pm

yahyah wrote:Some people are worried by 'dark forces' that would be emboldened by another Corbyn win

They shouldn't be, such fringe elements have no real power.

Whereas the people I am talking about have the backing of media magnates and shadowy plutocrats - even if they have little actual popular support.

yahyah · Post by **yahyah** » Mon 22 Aug, 2016 5:21 pm

I know that Anatoly, what I was referring to is the corrosive effect of some of those more extreme people on the far left.

They may not be the rich and powerful but they still make things difficult for the chances of another Labour government. It's a bit like the effect of the EU referendum Leave win, people become emboldened and start flexing their muscles.

There may not be many of them, and they certainly don't represent the average Corbyn voter, but they will be as destructive to Labour as they always have been.

AngryAsWell · Post by **AngryAsWell** » Mon 22 Aug, 2016 9:34 pm

Ian ‏@Mancman10 32s32 seconds ago
Ian Retweeted Martin Collinson
I don't want a movement,i want a Labour party that's electable to help save the NHS,stop cuts, not a protest party!Ian added,

Martin Collinson @MartinCollinson
@Mancman10 @davrwu Who cares what the polls say? We're building a movement that will transform society permanently, and that takes time.
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Really really despair, how many more must suffer before they realise "A Movement" means nothing when you are queuing at the food bank with hungry kids?