FlyTheNest

Posted: **Mon 04 May, 2015 5:51 pm**

AS blog:

A new Guardian/ICM poll suggests that large-scale tactical voting will save Nick Clegg in his constituency of Sheffield Hallam.

The poll puts Clegg on 42%, seven points clear of his young Labour rival, Oliver Coppard, who is on 35%. Ian Walker, the candidate for the Conservatives, is on 12%.

But Clegg achieves his seven-point lead only because almost half the people (48%) who say their nationwide preference is for the Conservatives are planning to support the Lib Dem.

When ICM asked voters which party they would prefer if they put the local context and candidates out of mind, Labour is out ahead, on 34%, with the Lib Dems on 32% and the Conservatives on 21%.

Posted: **Mon 04 May, 2015 5:54 pm**

Clegg's Sheffield Hallam constituency poll (Lord Ashcroft):

LABOUR 34%
CLEGG 32%

Posted: **Mon 04 May, 2015 6:08 pm**

Swarthlander wrote:Clegg could be safe... if we rely on the opinion of 500 people?

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/201 ... allam-poll" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Is that a sound poll?

Actually it's 437 people according to the ICM data.

" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Pretty small sample for a poll so the margin of error is going to be significant.

The data also states that 24% of people either haven't decided who to vote for yet or refused to answer that question.

I've no doubt Tory voters will try and keep Clegg in power as he's their greatest ally within the Lib-Dems but I seriously doubt the result will look anything like what this poll says it will.

Posted: **Mon 04 May, 2015 6:10 pm**

Tubby Isaacs wrote:Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB 43s43 seconds ago
ICM Guardian Hallam poll finds that 48% of those who'd support CON nationally are ready to swing to LD to support Clegg

It's all rather toe curling how important this one man seems to have become again ... despite his track record.

All I can do is hope that there will be a counter tactical voting move by those who might vote for other parties in Sheffield Hallam - and / or this Guardian poll is not as representative and accurate as Cleggites would like it to be.

Posted: **Mon 04 May, 2015 6:15 pm**

Just done a quick calculation using the Comres margin of error tool and worked out that the margin of error, assuming a similar voter turnout in Sheffield Hallam as 2010, is 4.67%.

Posted: **Mon 04 May, 2015 6:22 pm**

Just seen Eddi Reader's tweet basically saying Murphy shouldn't have gone to Glasgow it was provocative ... and am very depressed. What has it come to when parties are being told they shouldn't campaign somewhere during an election?

Posted: **Mon 04 May, 2015 6:23 pm**

Looking at the weighting, it looks like they had to weight the 18-24 year old group up by 20% due to undersampling but there's almost no change in weighting for any group above age 35. Sounds like it's that potential phone poll problem of younger generations not having landlines and/or going home for the bank holiday weekend from university.

Posted: **Mon 04 May, 2015 6:24 pm**

rebeccariots2 wrote:Just seen Eddi Reader's tweet basically saying Murphy shouldn't have gone to Glasgow it was provocative ... and am very depressed. What has it come to when parties are being told they shouldn't campaign somewhere during an election?

I hope it shakes up voters in Scotland, do they want to live under Salmond's stormtroopers ?

Posted: **Mon 04 May, 2015 6:26 pm**

rebeccariots2 wrote:Just seen Eddi Reader's tweet basically saying Murphy shouldn't have gone to Glasgow it was provocative ... and am very depressed. What has it come to when parties are being told they shouldn't campaign somewhere during an election?

I'm still laughing at Sturgeon's "Those weren't our nationalists."

Stir up nationalism and bad stuff happens every time.

Posted: **Mon 04 May, 2015 6:26 pm**

Mike Gapes retweeted
Faisal Islam ‏@faisalislam 9h9 hours ago
On Cons "push for majority": at the very least it's clear that there are very marginal Labour-Con seats, where Cons hardly turned up...

I wonder which seats he means?

Posted: **Mon 04 May, 2015 6:33 pm**

rebeccariots2 wrote:
Tubby Isaacs wrote:Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB 43s43 seconds ago
ICM Guardian Hallam poll finds that 48% of those who'd support CON nationally are ready to swing to LD to support Clegg
It's all rather toe curling how important this one man seems to have become again ... despite his track record.

All I can do is hope that there will be a counter tactical voting move by those who might vote for other parties in Sheffield Hallam - and / or this Guardian poll is not as representative and accurate as Cleggites would like it to be.

Or, what's left of the parliamentary party tell him where to go on May 8th. They won't like him cosying up to the Tories if the arithmetic says a deal with Lab would be better. Especially if he's just lost 25-35 of their MPs.

Posted: **Mon 04 May, 2015 6:33 pm**

Blair McDougall ‏@blairmcdougall 3m3 minutes ago
Nicola Sturgeon's 'this is nothing to do with me' line just isn't good enough. The mob was led by this SNP activist.

https://twitter.com/search?q=blair%20mcdougall&src=typd" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Posted: **Mon 04 May, 2015 6:37 pm**

rebeccariots2 wrote:Just seen Eddi Reader's tweet basically saying Murphy shouldn't have gone to Glasgow it was provocative ... and am very depressed. What has it come to when parties are being told they shouldn't campaign somewhere during an election?

If the atmosphere in Scotland is really as toxic as that tweet implies for supporters of the union, I'm beginning to understand why Labour, Libdem and Tory supporters are all willing to vote tactically for each other in order to effectively opose the nationalists, who have the advantage of being represented by a single party, when unionist support is split three ways. Until Scotland develops a plurality of parties on the nationalist as well as unionist side, the political dynamic will remain skewed with those who support the union, roughly half the population, with possibly little to no representation in Westminster, which won't be very healthy for our democracy imo.

Posted: **Mon 04 May, 2015 6:40 pm**

Jim Murphy's gone up in my estimation, never been a fan of his but he is up against this sort of **** and still managed to smile.

Posted: **Mon 04 May, 2015 6:45 pm**

Plaid people, apart from some of the Welsh language obsessives don't behave like the worst of their Scots counterparts, thankfully.

The days of Welsh Nat bombs and fires & Meibion Glyndŵr are long gone, but how long before some of the nuttier SNP activists emulate them ?

Posted: **Mon 04 May, 2015 6:52 pm**

yahyah wrote:
rebeccariots2 wrote:Just seen Eddi Reader's tweet basically saying Murphy shouldn't have gone to Glasgow it was provocative ... and am very depressed. What has it come to when parties are being told they shouldn't campaign somewhere during an election?

I hope it shakes up voters in Scotland, do they want to live under Salmond's stormtroopers ?

This one doesn't! (Not that anybody could deduce that from my posts)

Posted: **Mon 04 May, 2015 6:53 pm**

We had this? Unaccountably, not in other media outlets.

http://www.morningstaronline.co.uk/a-c5 ... penses-row" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Posted: **Mon 04 May, 2015 6:56 pm**

Tubby Isaacs wrote:Eddi Reader ‏@eddireader 5h5 hours ago
@BBCJamesCook walking into a YES city and trying to create chaos and aggro.. Jim Murphy is a trouble maker

Pathetic. As a wise man replies.

Graeme ‏@talkstough 1m1 minute ago
.@eddireader @BBCJamesCook Shall we just simplify things then & call it "a No country" and shutdown all debate then? Idiotic, divisive post.

Also a few comments BTL Over There and on Twitter saying that Eddie Izzard dressing up as Nicola Sturgeon was also provocative.

Posted: **Mon 04 May, 2015 7:00 pm**

mikems wrote:We had this? Unaccountably, not in other media outlets.

http://www.morningstaronline.co.uk/a-c5 ... penses-row" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Thank you for the link. Why am I not surprised that she shares with Philip Davies? But I do like the way the Morning Star calls them 'claimants'. Damn right.

The employment minister, who has claimed various sums reaching up to £1,830 a month since 2010 for rent, listed two non-existent companies as landlords at the London property she shares with fellow Tory claimant Philip Davies.

Posted: **Mon 04 May, 2015 7:01 pm**

1. New Twitterstorm this evening in progress - hashtag #ToriesOutNow

2. Eddi Reader sings like and angel but perhaps shouldn't speak.

3. Tish - de nada.

xx

Posted: **Mon 04 May, 2015 7:04 pm**

#toriesoutnow trending top. Which is nice.

Posted: **Mon 04 May, 2015 7:16 pm**

C4 News just showed a clip of Gordon Brown.

I'm going to miss him.

Posted: **Mon 04 May, 2015 7:16 pm**

TheGrimSqueaker wrote:
Tubby Isaacs wrote:Eddi Reader ‏@eddireader 5h5 hours ago
@BBCJamesCook walking into a YES city and trying to create chaos and aggro.. Jim Murphy is a trouble maker

Pathetic. As a wise man replies.

Graeme ‏@talkstough 1m1 minute ago
.@eddireader @BBCJamesCook Shall we just simplify things then & call it "a No country" and shutdown all debate then? Idiotic, divisive post.
Also a few comments BTL Over There and on Twitter saying that Eddie Izzard dressing up as Nicola Sturgeon was also provocative.

He went up in my estimation when he dressed up as Robert Watson Watt (Scottish pioneer of radar) in "Castles in the Sky".

Posted: **Mon 04 May, 2015 7:22 pm**

Eric_WLothian wrote:
TheGrimSqueaker wrote:
Tubby Isaacs wrote:Eddi Reader ‏@eddireader 5h5 hours ago
@BBCJamesCook walking into a YES city and trying to create chaos and aggro.. Jim Murphy is a trouble maker

Pathetic. As a wise man replies.

Graeme ‏@talkstough 1m1 minute ago
.@eddireader @BBCJamesCook Shall we just simplify things then & call it "a No country" and shutdown all debate then? Idiotic, divisive post.
Also a few comments BTL Over There and on Twitter saying that Eddie Izzard dressing up as Nicola Sturgeon was also provocative.
He went up in my estimation when he dressed up as Robert Watson Watt (Scottish pioneer of radar) in "Castles in the Sky".

He was damned good in that. But I'm a massive fan anyway.

Posted: **Mon 04 May, 2015 7:28 pm**

TheGrimSqueaker wrote:
Eric_WLothian wrote:
TheGrimSqueaker wrote: Also a few comments BTL Over There and on Twitter saying that Eddie Izzard dressing up as Nicola Sturgeon was also provocative.
He went up in my estimation when he dressed up as Robert Watson Watt (Scottish pioneer of radar) in "Castles in the Sky".
He was damned good in that. But I'm a massive fan anyway.

Yes he was good in that. He toned down the 'Izzard' a lot more than in his usual acting.

Posted: **Mon 04 May, 2015 7:35 pm**

Eddie Izzard ran 51 marathons in 63 days, or something equally ridiculous.

Still, he shouldn't show his face in Glasgow.

Imagine the furore if Labour, in Scotland at it's most merciless showed the same contempt for it's challengers, nationalists, sorry, but I have no time for them.

I have read that Wales is a colony, run by colonist quislings, funnily enough the bloke who wrote such nonsense lived in England, of course he talked about hireath, the emotional calling back to Wales, but he earned his coin in an occupying land.

Wankers.

Posted: **Mon 04 May, 2015 7:44 pm**

: Harrow East Tory Leaflet.jpg (89.62 KiB) Viewed 8978 times

Virendra Sharma ‏@VirendraSharma 5m5 minutes ago
Virendra Sharma retweeted bipin gami
Appalling divisive politics from the Tories in Harrow, Slough and Southall

Please tell me that isn't a real piece of Tory election 'literature'.

Posted: **Mon 04 May, 2015 7:46 pm**

Spacedone wrote:Looking at the weighting, it looks like they had to weight the 18-24 year old group up by 20% due to undersampling but there's almost no change in weighting for any group above age 35. Sounds like it's that potential phone poll problem of younger generations not having landlines and/or going home for the bank holiday weekend from university.

I can't see how phone poll of 500 people would necessarily give good cross section,
there's a big difference across the constituency,
our end (Crookes ) is likely to be strongly Labour,
Posher bits more lib/con.
Think it's going go be a lot tighter than poll suggests, also hoping someTories saying they'll vote Clegg, may not vote lib-dem, when moment comes.

Posted: **Mon 04 May, 2015 7:50 pm**

Is this true or more fabrication by a poster I had a disagreement with last night ? He is responding to another poster who said the East Ren situation could be foreseen.

Since East Ren Labour people had helpfully told them about the event, and Izzard’s presence would guarantee the publicity, then the results were inevitable.
Same as Labour disrupting Plaid campaigning in the Arfon constituency over the last few days by following them around dressed in fox costumes and running in between them and the passers by they are talking to and yapping. to drown them out

I can't ask him for evidence since I decided not to engage with him again but it's alarming if he is speaking the truth.

Posted: **Mon 04 May, 2015 7:53 pm**

rebeccariots2 wrote:
Harrow East Tory Leaflet.jpg

Virendra Sharma ‏@VirendraSharma 5m5 minutes ago
Virendra Sharma retweeted bipin gami
Appalling divisive politics from the Tories in Harrow, Slough and Southall
Please tell me that isn't a real piece of Tory election 'literature'.

That line at the bottom says

Electoral Commission application in progress

WTF does that mean ??

Posted: **Mon 04 May, 2015 7:56 pm**

Heard on Sky News just news, William and Kate have a few big houses so there's a chance of a third child. No further comment etc..

Neil and Glenys Kinnock out and about in Barry tonight, hope that shows that it is worth it and still all in play?

Posted: **Mon 04 May, 2015 7:59 pm**

pk1 wrote:
rebeccariots2 wrote:
Harrow East Tory Leaflet.jpg

Virendra Sharma ‏@VirendraSharma 5m5 minutes ago
Virendra Sharma retweeted bipin gami
Appalling divisive politics from the Tories in Harrow, Slough and Southall
Please tell me that isn't a real piece of Tory election 'literature'.
That line at the bottom says
Electoral Commission application in progress

WTF does that mean ??

I noticed that too PK. I wondered if it is some third party group who want to campaign for a Conservative vote and have realised they have to register with the EC - so have done so but haven't yet been approved or whatever the official recognition is called.

I just can't believe the Tories would be so daft and awful to put out something like that - it's such a slur - possibly defamatory of both Labour and Lib Dems and just downright nasty in using caste divisions ... unbelievable.

Posted: **Mon 04 May, 2015 7:59 pm**

pk1 wrote:Is this true or more fabrication by a poster I had a disagreement with last night ? He is responding to another poster who said the East Ren situation could be foreseen.

Since East Ren Labour people had helpfully told them about the event, and Izzard’s presence would guarantee the publicity, then the results were inevitable.
Same as Labour disrupting Plaid campaigning in the Arfon constituency over the last few days by following them around dressed in fox costumes and running in between them and the passers by they are talking to and yapping. to drown them out
I can't ask him for evidence since I decided not to engage with him again but it's alarming if he is speaking the truth.

First I have heard about such "goings on" in Arfon. Though I have been out of synch.

Posted: **Mon 04 May, 2015 8:16 pm**

Goodnight, everyone.

Posted: **Mon 04 May, 2015 8:22 pm**

letsskiptotheleft wrote:
I have read that Wales is a colony, run by colonist quislings, funnily enough the bloke who wrote such nonsense lived in England, of course he talked about hireath, the emotional calling back to Wales, but he earned his coin in an occupying land.

Wankers.

Sounds much the same as the infamous "wings over Scotland" SNP-supporting hate-site, run by the "Rev" Stuart Campbell, based in... Bath.

Posted: **Mon 04 May, 2015 8:22 pm**

Had a look at Alan Pugh, Labour PPC, twitter feed and took this snapshot. I think the foxes are part of the big pro wildlife / common decency campaign targeting MPs / parties that have supported fox hunting (Plaid has / does) and the badger cull (Plaid were the architects of the failed badger cull in Wales). I think Alan Pugh - along with Irranca Davies, Paul Flynn and several other Labour MPs in Wales - is one of the strong voices against animal cruelty. Plaid are very touchy about their record on this - they complained to the police when we were doing street stalls and leafleting in Carmarthenshire and Ceredigion (quite legitimately) and tried to get us moved or arrested. They also barracked and heckled peaceful marches through Aberystwyth organised by the Dyfi Badger Group.

How yappy, loud or anything else these foxes are - I simply don't know. They look pretty jolly in that photo.

: Arfon Anti Fox Hunting Protestors.jpg (88.34 KiB) Viewed 9906 times

Posted: **Mon 04 May, 2015 8:23 pm**

PorFavor wrote:Goodnight, everyone.

Night PF

Posted: **Mon 04 May, 2015 8:33 pm**

Hmmm. Clegg

I never expected us to take that. Lovely to do so, as it would have killed off a Con and LD coalition but the gap is too big, and if you know Sheffield Hallam you'll know it is Tory territory really.

But.

That is quite a big gap, and not very encouraging. It also shows Con + LD tactical voting.

If anyone is interested in the minutiae of what happens after May 8th and whether the SNP have a veto you might be interested in a disagreement that is going on.

https://spinninghugo.wordpress.com/2015 ... m-tomkins/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Posted: **Mon 04 May, 2015 8:36 pm**

Apologies if someone has already posted this. The Independent comes out ...

EDITORIAL
Monday 4 May 2015
In defence of liberal democracy
Only a legitimate government with a proper mandate and a commitment to the Union can prevent the fragmentation of our country
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/edi ... 24221.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Posted: **Mon 04 May, 2015 8:56 pm**

rebeccariots2 wrote:Apologies if someone has already posted this. The Independent comes out ...

EDITORIAL
Monday 4 May 2015
In defence of liberal democracy
Only a legitimate government with a proper mandate and a commitment to the Union can prevent the fragmentation of our country
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/edi ... 24221.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

For all its faults, another Lib-Con Coalition would both prolong recovery and give our kingdom a better chance of continued existence.

the one that is faltering right now?

This title casts no vote. But we prize strong, effective government, consider nationalism guilty until proven innocent, and say that if the present Coalition is to get another chance, we hope it is much less conservative, and much more liberal.

i.e. we really want to say vote Tory but daren't do it because our readers would leave in droves.

Hardly surprising given the attitudes of its editor.

Posted: **Mon 04 May, 2015 8:59 pm**

And this:

On raising the income tax threshold, the pupil premium, early years learning and apprenticeships the Lib Dems have been a force for progress, and if he returns to government Mr Clegg should insist on being Education Secretary.

Clegg?

Clegg??

FFS! he was the idiot who announced the universal infants FSM without it having gone through the education dept. Tories won't wear that at all. Far more likely to be Laws given that Paul Marshall (his fellow Orange Book editor) is still there on the DfE board.

Posted: **Mon 04 May, 2015 9:00 pm**

Mark Ferguson ‏@Markfergusonuk 46m46 minutes ago
Not ashamed to say it brought a tear to my eye >> "A nation and a movement" - Scottish Labour election broadcast http://labli.st/1ELSsVx" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

I can see why.

Posted: **Mon 04 May, 2015 9:02 pm**

Mark Millar ‏@mrmarkmillar · 4h4 hours ago
A thought: When I publicly went from Lab to SNP I got no abuse in 3 yrs. Today I went SNP to Lab & got over 100 abusive tweets in 1 hr.

Mark Millar, for those unfamiliar with him, is a writer and one of the biggest names in the comic book world. Several of his works have been made into films, most notable Kick Ass and The Secret Service. That tweet perfectly illustrates both the fact that it is not all as one-sided as the 45ers would have us believe and the levels of intimidation being used by their side.

Night PF.

Posted: **Mon 04 May, 2015 9:05 pm**

: Kirsten Oswald Letter.jpg (46.03 KiB) Viewed 9874 times

This is the strangest election.

Posted: **Mon 04 May, 2015 9:06 pm**

TheGrimSqueaker wrote:
Mark Millar ‏@mrmarkmillar · 4h4 hours ago
A thought: When I publicly went from Lab to SNP I got no abuse in 3 yrs. Today I went SNP to Lab & got over 100 abusive tweets in 1 hr.
Mark Millar, for those unfamiliar with him, is a writer and one of the biggest names in the comic book world. Several of his works have been made into films, most notable Kick Ass and The Secret Service. That tweet perfectly illustrates both the fact that it is not all as one-sided as the 45ers would have us believe and the levels of intimidation being used by their side.

Night PF.

Thanks - I saw that earlier and didn't know who he was - so good to find out.

Posted: **Mon 04 May, 2015 9:09 pm**

Mark Ferguson ‏@Markfergusonuk 18m18 minutes ago
What is it about the top-rate-tax-rising, non-dom-abolishing, mansion-taxing Labour Party that the Independent doesn’t like? I can’t imagine

Posted: **Mon 04 May, 2015 9:16 pm**

rebeccariots2 wrote:
TheGrimSqueaker wrote:
Mark Millar ‏@mrmarkmillar · 4h4 hours ago
A thought: When I publicly went from Lab to SNP I got no abuse in 3 yrs. Today I went SNP to Lab & got over 100 abusive tweets in 1 hr.
Mark Millar, for those unfamiliar with him, is a writer and one of the biggest names in the comic book world. Several of his works have been made into films, most notable Kick Ass and The Secret Service. That tweet perfectly illustrates both the fact that it is not all as one-sided as the 45ers would have us believe and the levels of intimidation being used by their side.

Night PF.
Thanks - I saw that earlier and didn't know who he was - so good to find out.

Mark Millar, top chap. The Kick-Ass movies are brilliant, in an unhinged sort of way. I am surprised about the SNP Tory letter, why write that? Did Sturgeon sanction it?

Posted: **Mon 04 May, 2015 9:18 pm**

rebeccariots2 wrote:
Mark Ferguson ‏@Markfergusonuk 18m18 minutes ago
What is it about the top-rate-tax-rising, non-dom-abolishing, mansion-taxing Labour Party that the Independent doesn’t like? I can’t imagine

The Indy editorial reads like something out of the 1950s with its archaic language. Presumably written by the same editor who advocates the end of free healthcare.

The final nail in the papers credibility.

Posted: **Mon 04 May, 2015 9:19 pm**

RogerOThornhill wrote:And this:

On raising the income tax threshold, the pupil premium, early years learning and apprenticeships the Lib Dems have been a force for progress, and if he returns to government Mr Clegg should insist on being Education Secretary.
Clegg?

Clegg??

FFS! he was the idiot who announced the universal infants FSM without it having gone through the education dept. Tories won't wear that at all. Far more likely to be Laws given that Paul Marshall (his fellow Orange Book editor) is still there on the DfE board.

And of course there was already extra funding for schools with poorer pupils long before the Pupil Premium.

Posted: **Mon 04 May, 2015 9:19 pm**

Warning - Sun You Gov bollocks.

43m43 minutes ago
Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB
Exciting times. @StigAbell of the Sun says tonight's YouGov is not a 1% CON lead or a 1% LAB one. The tension mounts.

Of course it hasn't been accompanied by the usual Sun cheerleading so maybe Stig is having fun.

FlyTheNest

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