Thursday 20th October 2016

[refitman]

Morning all.

Good work Hindle & Sky last night.

[PaulfromYorkshire]

Morning. Yes was going to say the same. FTN at best - well done guys

[tinybgoat]

http://news.sky.com/story/brexit-court- ... t-10622814

The concerning news for the Government is that the three High Court judges appeared far more sceptical about its case than many had expected.
The Lord Chief Justice said twice that their argument "baffled" him.
It is entirely plausible that the Government will lose this case, which might come as a shock to Westminster.
Ultimately, it depends on the three judges.
It seems likely either way that an appeal will go to the Supreme Court to be heard by a full panel of Britain's top judges.
At this point, the Government might have to decide to change the terms of its argument, to perhaps say that Article 50 is reversible, so no rights are lost.

There's been a few mentions in last couple of weeks of Article 50 being reversible, but back in may/June it wasn't it generally considered not to be?

It is not impossible that the Supreme Court could refer the case to the European Court of Justice. This is one of the very same powers Gina Miller argues is being destroyed by Article 50.
This would appear to be the constitutional equivalent of breaking the space-time continuum.

not impossible, but unlikely?

[SpinningHugo]

http://news.sky.com/story/brexit-court- ... t-10622814

The concerning news for the Government is that the three High Court judges appeared far more sceptical about its case than many had expected.
The Lord Chief Justice said twice that their argument "baffled" him.
It is entirely plausible that the Government will lose this case, which might come as a shock to Westminster.
Ultimately, it depends on the three judges.
It seems likely either way that an appeal will go to the Supreme Court to be heard by a full panel of Britain's top judges.
At this point, the Government might have to decide to change the terms of its argument, to perhaps say that Article 50 is reversible, so no rights are lost.

There's been a few mentions in last couple of weeks of Article 50 being reversible, but back in may/June it wasn't it generally considered not to be?

It is not impossible that the Supreme Court could refer the case to the European Court of Justice. This is one of the very same powers Gina Miller argues is being destroyed by Article 50.
This would appear to be the constitutional equivalent of breaking the space-time continuum.

not impossible, but unlikely?

Sorry for a links to me, but I wrote 3 days ago about why I think art 50 is not unilaterally reversible, and why there will be no CJEU reference on the point

https://spinninghugo.wordpress.com/2016 ... rticle-50/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

(as to why the government will, in the end, win see

https://spinninghugo.wordpress.com/2016 ... on-brexit/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

but the government has argued this badly

https://spinninghugo.wordpress.com/2016 ... he-courts/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; )

[tinybgoat]

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/po ... 70921.html

Swindon (Lydiard and Freshbrook ward ) councillor Matthew Courtliff, changed sides, criticised Corbyn,
and changed sides again:

After completing the paperwork to officially join the Conservative party, he released a statement in which he criticised Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn and the party’s direction under him.
......edit...
The following morning, he declared he had made “a terrible mistake” and admitted his move was “the most stupid 24 hours of my life”.
.......edit...
His Labour colleagues appear to have welcomed him back, with The Swindon Advertiser reporting the sSwindon Labour Group has confirmed he can return to represent the party.

[adam]

From the guardian politics blog - David Davis (the leave secretary, fundamentally a nutter but occasionally with his heart in the right place about some odd things, not David Davies the shithead nutter who wants us to hate children) is answering questions

Davis says his job is to bring back the power to control immigration.

So there you go.

[StephenDolan]

From the guardian politics blog - David Davis (the leave secretary, fundamentally a nutter but occasionally with his heart in the right place about some odd things, not David Davies the shithead nutter who wants us to hate children) is answering questions

Davis says his job is to bring back the power to control immigration.

So there you go.

De de der de de
I've got the power!

[Womble44]

From the guardian politics blog - David Davis (the leave secretary, fundamentally a nutter but occasionally with his heart in the right place about some odd things, not David Davies the shithead nutter who wants us to hate children) is answering questions

Davis says his job is to bring back the power to control immigration.

So there you go.

De de der de de
I've got the power!

Who are people going to move on to once it becomes clear that stopping immigration didn't actually fix their problems?

[PorFavor]

Good morfternoon.

"Highlights" of the US Presidential debate will be shown on BBC News Channel at 11am today (ie soon).

(I missed it on account of being asleep - so thanks to Sky'sGoneOut and HindleA for last night's coverage.)



Edited - bracket related

[adam]

From the guardian politics blog - David Davis (the leave secretary, fundamentally a nutter but occasionally with his heart in the right place about some odd things, not David Davies the shithead nutter who wants us to hate children) is answering questions
So there you go.

De de der de de
I've got the power!

Who are people going to move on to once it becomes clear that stopping immigration didn't actually fix their problems?

People who aren't immigrants but who look like they could be
Disabled people, well, they call themselves disabled
Less well off people generally, why don't they try harder
Young single mothers who only did it for the council house
Witches

Not necessarily in that order.

[ChrisDean]

https://skwalker1964.wordpress.com/2016 ... p-and-nec/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[AnatolyKasparov]

From the guardian politics blog - David Davis (the leave secretary, fundamentally a nutter but occasionally with his heart in the right place about some odd things, not David Davies the shithead nutter who wants us to hate children) is answering questions
So there you go.

De de der de de
I've got the power!

Who are people going to move on to once it becomes clear that stopping immigration didn't actually fix their problems?

But immigration isn't even going to be "stopped", anyway. Thinking it can be is a genuinely Canute-ordering-the-tide-to-go-back mentality.

At best, it can be controlled to a limited degree. That will not in any way satisfy those who fondly imagine "kicking out the IMMIGRUNTZ" will make us GREAT again. As to what they do when this becomes obvious, there are several possible answers - but few of them good

[Willow904]

I'm currently listening to Donald Trump attacking Hilary Clinton for supporting "open borders" during the debate last night.
The right wing assault on immigration and immigrants we're witnessing in the UK at the moment appears to be directly mirrored in the States and raises questions over who benefits from whipping up such jingoistic hostility towards those identified as "other". Not progressive politics, that's for sure. And that appears to be the point, as far as I can tell.

[AnatolyKasparov]

Trump still "lost" the debate overall, though. And its looking ever more like only some (late) "October Surprise" can save him now.

[HindleA]

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/b ... osd7lj714i" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;



Strict DWP Sanctions On Benefits Claimants Are Harmful And Counter-Productive, ‘Nudge Unit’ Warns

[JonnyT1234]

Witches.

No way. They'd never dare to attack Maggie.

[AngryAsWell]

Fear of foreigners is political Viagra for our limp leaders
Suzanne Moore

The reaction of a handful of people to the reuniting of teenager migrants with their families is sickening and shameful

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... CMP=twt_gu" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[JonnyT1234]

Trump still "lost" the debate overall, though. And its looking ever more like only some (late) "October Surprise" can save him now.

The Mo Mowlam technique? It might just work.

[JonnyT1234]

Protesters build taco truck 'wall' outside Donald Trump's Las Vegas hotel - The Independent
https://apple.news/A89751ex2SQKNXYf5ozDWaA" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

However, the Mexicans didn't pay for it.

[AnatolyKasparov]

Trump still "lost" the debate overall, though. And its looking ever more like only some (late) "October Surprise" can save him now.

The Mo Mowlam technique? It might just work.

Not sure what you are referring to there?

[JonnyT1234]

Trump still "lost" the debate overall, though. And its looking ever more like only some (late) "October Surprise" can save him now.

The Mo Mowlam technique? It might just work.

Not sure what you are referring to there?

Removal* of wig (then throwing on the table, dead cat style).

* Mo Mowlam when things got tricky at one point during the NI peace talks she was chairing.

Edit: clarified the MM technique

[JonnyT1234]

Mars lander lost on its descent, ESA confirms - Sky News
https://apple.news/AkrsgC88zSwqaL1vnASGM7w" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Mission controllers said they were in the dark about the fate of the Schiaparelli probe, which is believed to have touched down on Wednesday after a seven-year journey.

I've read War of the Worlds... Shot down by the Martians, duh.

[JonnyT1234]

That's 4 straight debates without a single question on climate change. Good job, everyone. - Vox
https://apple.news/AxekhU4E9RIyFB6shwmJY5w" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

‘Criminally irresponsible’ media avoid climate debate questions - ThinkProgress.org
https://apple.news/AZKW7d77ZNHaEUbSMKTFT2A" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

For the second election in a row every moderator ignored the gravest threat to our health and well-being.

[JonnyT1234]

Hillary Clinton vs Donald Trump on science, energy, and the climate - Ars Technica
https://apple.news/AMeDQJfKfS_6CqjYTxCSm4g" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Good and balanced overview of the candidate's positions on science etc. If it's TL;DR for you they range from:

Very sane, mostly sane, mostly undefined but not terribly sane, batshit insane.

Surprisingly (or not), the Libertarian isn't the batshit insane one.

[JonnyT1234]

Onshore windfarms more popular than thought, UK poll finds - the guardian
https://apple.news/Akje6DvDNSWCOTkD2uMrbQQ" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[Willow904]

Trump still "lost" the debate overall, though. And its looking ever more like only some (late) "October Surprise" can save him now.

Approximately 37% of the American population is comprised of ethnic minorities as opposed to about 13% of the UK population (if Wiki is accurate!). Winning a mandate to oppose multi-culturalism from an electorate with such a high proportion of voters from multi-cultural backgrounds is a much bigger hill for Trump to climb than is facing the right wing in the UK. My point wasn't about the likelihood of success, anyway, but the motivation and the motivation, of course, is the usual right wing classic of divide and rule. It needs to be resisted and the only way to do that, it seems to me, is to counter the anti-immigrant rhetoric at every opportunity, not pander to it.

[JonnyT1234]

Presidential debate: Iran streams Trump v Clinton showdowns as 'anti-American propaganda' - The Independent
https://apple.news/AVcmya5s2TPalJkOL5oHA9A" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Likely to be more effective than faked propaganda, too.

[SpinningHugo]

May be of interest

Here I argue why 'Turing's law' is wrong

https://spinninghugo.wordpress.com/2016 ... -is-wrong/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[AnatolyKasparov]

Trump still "lost" the debate overall, though. And its looking ever more like only some (late) "October Surprise" can save him now.

Approximately 37% of the American population is comprised of ethnic minorities as opposed to about 13% of the UK population (if Wiki is accurate!). Winning a mandate to oppose multi-culturalism from an electorate with such a high proportion of voters from multi-cultural backgrounds is a much bigger hill for Trump to climb than is facing the right wing in the UK. My point wasn't about the likelihood of success, anyway, but the motivation and the motivation, of course, is the usual right wing classic of divide and rule. It needs to be resisted and the only way to do that, it seems to me, is to counter the anti-immigrant rhetoric at every opportunity, not pander to it.

Agree with all that, of course. Trying to out-UKIP and the likes is a futile exercise for centre/left parties - and just costs you your self respect in the process, too.

[AngryAsWell]

May be of interest

Here I argue why 'Turing's law' is wrong

https://spinninghugo.wordpress.com/2016 ... -is-wrong/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Well said Hugo, I was thinking this myself last night as I watched an elderly man put the same case on television. He doesn't want a pardon, he wants his prosecution removing from all records.

[SpinningHugo]

May be of interest

Here I argue why 'Turing's law' is wrong

https://spinninghugo.wordpress.com/2016 ... -is-wrong/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Well said Hugo, I was thinking this myself last night as I watched an elderly man put the same case on television. He doesn't want a pardon, he wants his prosecution removing from all records.

Didn't see. Channel?

[AngryAsWell]

May be of interest

Here I argue why 'Turing's law' is wrong

https://spinninghugo.wordpress.com/2016 ... -is-wrong/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Well said Hugo, I was thinking this myself last night as I watched an elderly man put the same case on television. He doesn't want a pardon, he wants his prosecution removing from all records.

Didn't see. Channel?

Newsnight - Evan Davies was interviewing him

[AngryAsWell]

Well said Hugo, I was thinking this myself last night as I watched an elderly man put the same case on television. He doesn't want a pardon, he wants his prosecution removing from all records.

Didn't see. Channel?

Newsnight - Evan Davies was interviewing him

http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b0 ... t-19102016" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Evan Davis with reports on child refugees, customs unions, the future of banks, a retrospective pardon for gay men, and writer John Banville.

edit to add link

[StephenDolan]

Lewis going after May over her response to BHS style business, Nandy going after her over the handling of the Goddard fiasco. Good to see. Should get that polling lead down from 18

[AnatolyKasparov]

Though it is a shame Nandy hasn't returned to the SC - she is one of the few (continuing) resignees who I genuinely miss in the front line.

[AngryAsWell]

Theresa May is considering a major shift in the way immigration numbers are recorded
Whether foreign students should be counted as immigrants in official data is up for review

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/po ... 71631.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Always thought it was stupid to count them anyway

[AngryAsWell]

Are Europeans taking Brexit seriously enough?

http://www.itv.com/news/2016-10-20/are- ... ly-enough/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[AnatolyKasparov]

They are probably taking it more seriously than the disgraced Liam Fox is?

[HindleA]

http://www.pcs.org.uk/en/news_and_event ... ract-ended" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;


Major win as scandal-hit contract ended
20 October 2016
The scandal-hit Concentrix tax credits contract is being brought back in-house with immediate effect

[RogerOThornhill]

Afternoon. I've been lurking since taking the Y5 swimming this morning. Spent the afternoon going through thesis line-by-line - boring but necessary.

This is interesting from a No 10 policy wonk - haven't read it all but this bit caught my eye earlier.

Why we lost the Brexit vote

http://www.politico.eu/article/why-we-l ... d-cameron/

Our European counterparts pointed out that the number of immigrants moving to the U.K. was relatively limited, compared to, for example, Germany.

Finally, as we tried to argue that the U.K. faced a unique set of circumstances, which required a fundamental redraft of the relevant European rules, we struggled to provide evidence to support our case.

We tried using absolute numbers: three million migrants likely to come over the next 10 years, 6 percent of Lithuania’s population living in the U.K. already. We highlighted the pressure on public services like schools and hospitals. And we appealed to European leaders to consider the impact of migratory flows on their own economies.

These arguments were quickly shot down. Our European counterparts pointed out that the number of immigrants moving to the U.K. was relatively limited, compared to, for example, Germany. Or they called attention to the fact that European migrants paid more tax and used fewer public services than British citizens, which was true.

They noted that our economy was growing, that we were almost at full employment, and thus that migration was more or less inevitable. They showed us how our rate of financial distribution to the areas under pressure was much lower than, say, Germany’s, and concluded that we should just spend a lot more money addressing the challenges there.

We were never able to counter these arguments. To be honest, we failed to find any evidence of communities under pressure that would satisfy the European Commission. At one point we even asked the help of Andrew Green at MigrationWatch, an organization that has been critical of migration. But all he could provide was an article in the Daily Telegraph about a hospital maternity ward in Corby. There was no hard evidence.

That's pretty bad for a thinktank that is on speed-dial by the right wing press and used for alarmist "we're doomed!" articles. No hard evidence?

[PorFavor]

Quiet, innit? (As AnatolyKasparov would probably say.)

[JonnyT1234]

Are Europeans taking Brexit seriously enough?

http://www.itv.com/news/2016-10-20/are- ... ly-enough/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

And now we are realising [Um, who is this 'we'? Much of that 'we' were fully aware of this years ago...]that not only will each and every one of our 27 former partners, but many of the regions of our former partners, are going to have to give unanimous consent before a deal can be done.

That’s the future trading relationship with the continent that, we are regularly reassured, is going to be “pretty straightforward”.

So no wonder the leaders across the dinner table from Mrs May this evening are going to be looking pretty relaxed.

They believe they have almost all the cards, and that if some tough love is going to be required with London, they are ready to administer it.

They don't have 'almost all the cards', they have every single one of them but one. We have nothing in our hand at all except that one, single card. Prevarication. Of course they're relaxed about the situation. I'm firmly of the belief that they'll be delighted if we left as quickly as possible, less delighted if we change our minds and stayed (because we'd whine about it constantly, as per), but horrified if we fart about and don't do anything constructive for years thus paralysing the EU as well as our own society.

That's the only card we have: do (some of) what we want or we'll drag you down with us. And it's a very weak one.

[tinyclanger2]

So Theresa May will try and put the continent right this evening over dinner, when she gives the other 27 an informal account of her Government’s thinking.

I used to think that Italy had comedy politicians what with Belusconi and everything but with Johnson, Patel, Davis, May and others the shoe is on the other foot.

Innit.

[tinyclanger2]

Are Europeans taking Brexit seriously enough?

http://www.itv.com/news/2016-10-20/are- ... ly-enough/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

I think they just think we've lost it. Apart from the ones that are coming over to poach businesses and talent. The brain drain has already started and we've not triggered Article 50 yet.

Is anyone writing the screen play for the (not too) futuristic dystopia, Little England?

[tinyclanger2]

I do notice that when I arrive, everyone else scarpers.

Is it coincidence?

[JonnyT1234]

The most damning of all the words in this article below are these ones:

Having avoided detailed questions about his finances for years...

Now then, remind us just whose fault that might be, hmmm?

David Cameron's adviser feared Panama Papers would end boss's career - the guardian
https://apple.news/Ae7vO54vjSbC5Ym-uhN68DQ" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[RogerOThornhill]

Oh...bye!

[JonnyT1234]

UK will get a hard Brexit if May pursues tough approach – Hollande - the guardian
https://apple.news/Avc1FQbF_Sq2JsPwB3zmKqQ" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

“I refuse to imagine a Europe where lorries and hedge funds are free to cross borders but citizens are not,” he [Schulz] said.

The unedifying sight of EU leaders scrambling to give us everything we ask for continues apace, I see...

[tinyclanger2]

Am here to waffle inanely.
(I like to play to my strengths)

[tinyclanger2]

https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... -him-a-job" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Philip Green: Blair gave him a knighthood, Cameron gave him a job

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/po ... 71836.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
MPs have unanimously voted to strip Sir Philip Green of his Knighthood