Friday 21st October 2016

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refitman
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Friday 21st October 2016

Post by refitman »

Morning all.
PaulfromYorkshire
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Re: Friday 21st October 2016

Post by PaulfromYorkshire »

http://www.examiner.co.uk/news/west-yor ... y-12057279" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

batley-spen-election-labours-tracy
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Willow904
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Re: Friday 21st October 2016

Post by Willow904 »

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... bert-court" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Tories retain Witney and Labour holds Batley and Spen in byelections
I read the Guardian all the way through, but the actual results are nowhere to be seen. How close did the Libdems get in Witney? I'll try the BBC, I guess. Paul's link above has the Batley and Spen result at any rate.

Edited for stupid predictive text.
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Willow904
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Re: Friday 21st October 2016

Post by Willow904 »

Robert Courts (Con) - 17,313 (45.02%)
Liz Leffman (Lib Dem) - 11,611 (30.19%)
Duncan Enright (Lab) - 5,765 (14.99%)
Larry Sanders (Green) - 1,363 (3.54%)
Dickie Bird (UKIP) - 1,354 (3.52%)
Dr Helen Salisbury (NHAP) - 433 (1.13%)
Daniel Skidmore (Ind) - 151 (0.39%)
Mad Hatter (Loony) - 129 (0.34%)
Nicholas Ward (Ind) - 93 (0.24%)
David Bishop (Bus Pass Elvis) - 61 (0.16%)
Lord Toby Jug (Eccentric) - 59 (0.15%)
Winston McKenzie (Eng Dem) - 52 (0.14%)
Emilia Arno (Love) - 44 (0.11%)
Adam Knight (Ind) - 27 (0.07%)
Turnout - 46.74%
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-37719170" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

The BBC is still useful for some things. Should have tried there first :)
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PorFavor
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Re: Friday 21st October 2016

Post by PorFavor »

Witney by-election -


From The Oxford Times:

Conservative (Robert Courts) - 17,313 (45.02%)

LibDem (Liz Leffman) - 11,611 (30.19%)

Labour (Duncan Enright) - 5,765 (14.99%)

http://www.oxfordtimes.co.uk/news/14815 ... d_results/
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Re: Friday 21st October 2016

Post by PorFavor »

@Willow904

Just gave you the edited highlights as it wouldn't let me copy and paste. Your version is better!
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Re: Friday 21st October 2016

Post by PorFavor »

Witney byelection: Lib Dems resurgent as Tories hold on with slashed majority

Victorious Conservative candidate Robert Courts makes swift exit from count as Liberal Democrats surge to second place and Labour slips to third (Guardian)
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... d-majority
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Re: Friday 21st October 2016

Post by PorFavor »

Good morfternoon.
PaulfromYorkshire
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Re: Friday 21st October 2016

Post by PaulfromYorkshire »

Awful

Tracy Brabin heckled right through her acceptance speech

http://www.examiner.co.uk/news/west-yor ... 2-12028576" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

scroll down a bit.
Womble44
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Re: Friday 21st October 2016

Post by Womble44 »

PaulfromYorkshire wrote:Awful

Tracy Brabin heckled right through her acceptance speech

http://www.examiner.co.uk/news/west-yor ... 2-12028576" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

scroll down a bit.
Presumably right wingers will be repeatedly called on by the media to condemn it?
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JonnyT1234
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Re: Friday 21st October 2016

Post by JonnyT1234 »

May: UK will remain at centre of EU decision-making until Brexit - the guardian
https://apple.news/ARqbCoScbSB6fPO-5nTRzBw" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Speaking of disgusting behaviour...
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PorFavor
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Re: Friday 21st October 2016

Post by PorFavor »


Theresa May has angered European leaders by telling her first EU summit that she expects Britain to be at the centre of European decision-making until Brexit takes place.

In a brief speech at the end of an EU dinner in Brussels, the prime minister said Britain wanted to continue to play a central role in meetings and decisions until it leaves the EU.

The speech angered fellow leaders, according to Manfred Weber, leader of the Christian Democrats in the European parliament. He said: “When somebody wants to leave a club, it is not normal that such a member wants to decide about the future of this club. That is really creating a lot of anger about the behaviour of the British government.

“If you want to leave please do so, but don’t decide for the European Union.” (Guardian)
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... til-brexit

I don't know (because I wasn't there), but I imagine that Theresa May probably said this as much to convey the idea that we were bestowing a big British honour upon everyone as much as anything else.

I'm not surprised they're pissed off. I mean, even as members we chose to opt out of things we didn't like. So now, as (almost) non-members this statement must be very grating to the others.
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Re: Friday 21st October 2016

Post by PorFavor »

@JonnyT1234

Whoopsish.
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JonnyT1234
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Re: Friday 21st October 2016

Post by JonnyT1234 »

Willow904 wrote: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-37719170" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

The BBC is still useful for some things. Should have tried there first :)
The Guardian is rubbish for results during elections. The same was true for the referendum and locals where their tally of seats lagged behind the BBC's by over 30 minutes and longer at some points.
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JonnyT1234
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Re: Friday 21st October 2016

Post by JonnyT1234 »

We are approaching the Trumpocene, a new epoch where climate change is just a big scary conspiracy - the guardian
https://apple.news/Av0UVFWRQTIykEzmW3ztVnA" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Have discovered that the quite possibly stupidest, most mind-numbingly ignorant man on Earth writes for Breitbart. James Delingpole certainly whores himself about, doesn't he.
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PorFavor
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Re: Friday 21st October 2016

Post by PorFavor »

To echo AngryAsWell (from yesterday) - where's citizenJA? I hope all's well. Although I don't like to imply that people need permission not to make an appearance here . . .
nickyinnorfolk
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Re: Friday 21st October 2016

Post by nickyinnorfolk »

PaulfromYorkshire wrote:Awful


Tracy Brabin heckled right through her acceptance speech

http://www.examiner.co.uk/news/west-yor ... 2-12028576" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

scroll down a bit.
Morning all.

They were shouting things like 'racist' and 'fascist'. The irony-meter just exploded.

I saw photos of Tracy in the Guardian and elsewhere where she appeared to be alone on stage during her acceptance speech, it's only from seeing that footage that it becomes apparent that she was standing away from that motley bunch of other candidates, all of whom most deservedly lost their deposits.

I haven't been on here for ages so it's nice to be back. It's been a very dispiriting few months politically.
It's still dreadful but there are chinks of light. Parliament has just gained an excellent MP in Tracy albeit under tragic circumstances. Corbyn is doing his job in PMQs and holding this excreable government to account. Witney's Tory majority slashed due to fears in Middle England about Brexit.
PorFavor
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Re: Friday 21st October 2016

Post by PorFavor »

JonnyT1234 wrote:We are approaching the Trumpocene, a new epoch where climate change is just a big scary conspiracy - the guardian
https://apple.news/Av0UVFWRQTIykEzmW3ztVnA" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Have discovered that the quite possibly stupidest, most mind-numbingly ignorant man on Earth writes for Breitbart. James Delingpole certainly whores himself about, doesn't he.

Sulphur or sulfur?
PaulfromYorkshire
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Re: Friday 21st October 2016

Post by PaulfromYorkshire »

PorFavor wrote:
JonnyT1234 wrote:We are approaching the Trumpocene, a new epoch where climate change is just a big scary conspiracy - the guardian
https://apple.news/Av0UVFWRQTIykEzmW3ztVnA" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Have discovered that the quite possibly stupidest, most mind-numbingly ignorant man on Earth writes for Breitbart. James Delingpole certainly whores himself about, doesn't he.

Sulphur or sulfur?
Oh don't start that one again! Sulfur of course :twisted:
nickyinnorfolk
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Re: Friday 21st October 2016

Post by nickyinnorfolk »

Just looking at this photo of Cameron and May canvassing with Robert Courts.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article ... -Spen.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Scroll down for pic.

Elsewhere I've heard that Cameron is seething with resentment at May, and May despises Cameron. But they were worried enough about Witney voters rejecting Brexit supporting Courts that they felt they had to throw everything they had at the campaign.

May looks exhausted.

It must have been a great strain for both her and Cameron to swallow their mutual contempt.
Last edited by nickyinnorfolk on Fri 21 Oct, 2016 10:22 am, edited 3 times in total.
nickyinnorfolk
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Re: Friday 21st October 2016

Post by nickyinnorfolk »

Cameron also despises Courts for being a Brexiteer. He'd thought he'd be able to parachute his former aide and election agent, Natasha Whitmill, into the seat. He awarded her an OBE. She's only 32 and has done nothing of note apart from being a professional toadie.
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JonnyT1234
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Re: Friday 21st October 2016

Post by JonnyT1234 »

PaulfromYorkshire wrote:Oh don't start that one again!
It's much too phthalate for that.
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PaulfromYorkshire
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Re: Friday 21st October 2016

Post by PaulfromYorkshire »

Mark Steel has been on great form recently hasn't he?

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/ref ... 72156.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
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JonnyT1234
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Re: Friday 21st October 2016

Post by JonnyT1234 »

Tories want Gary Lineker axed for backing refugees - and he's having none of it - Mirror Online
https://apple.news/AcrHG0dZqQSSa5Pfa5e7d3A" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Compare and contrast treatment of BBC for Clarkson (racism, violence) versus Lineker (compassion, empathy).
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AnatolyKasparov
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Re: Friday 21st October 2016

Post by AnatolyKasparov »

LibDems and Labour (just) outpolled the Tories in Witney. That only previously happened in the 1997 and 2001 Labour landslides.
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Willow904
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Re: Friday 21st October 2016

Post by Willow904 »

AnatolyKasparov wrote:LibDems and Labour (just) outpolled the Tories in Witney. That only previously happened in the 1997 and 2001 Labour landslides.
Yes, but they've swapped places, with the Libdems taking 30% of the vote this time round when it was Labour taking 30% back in 1997. So not especially encouraging for Labour, although Corbyn doesn't seem to have made much difference one way or another with Labour on a similar percentage to the 2015 GE, I believe.
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RogerOThornhill
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Re: Friday 21st October 2016

Post by RogerOThornhill »

Morning all.

Rushing around a bit this morning as I;m off to Derby soon for a couple of days.

A lot of comment on that Twitter about rewarding HTs that was on Newsnight. If that statistic about HTs coming in and excluding kids to get their results looking better is true, then they ought to be named and shamed. Totally unacceptable.
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RogerOThornhill
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Re: Friday 21st October 2016

Post by RogerOThornhill »

So how long before Hammond says "Bugger this, I'm not standing for that sort of treatment"?

May embarrasses Hammond in dispute over migrant numbers
Theresa May’s office publicly slapped down Philip Hammond yesterday by declaring that he was categorically wrong to suggest that there might be a change in the way that migrant numbers were counted.

Downing Street issued an unusually aggressive statement the day after the chancellor said that he was “having conversations within government” over changes. Mr Hammond wants to exclude foreign students from the net migration count.

The decision to embarrass the chancellor publicly is likely to worsen relations between No 10 and No 11, which have come under strain over issues including Mrs May’s comments about the work of the…
No link as in the Times and that's all I could see but you the picture.
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AnatolyKasparov
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Re: Friday 21st October 2016

Post by AnatolyKasparov »

Willow904 wrote:
AnatolyKasparov wrote:LibDems and Labour (just) outpolled the Tories in Witney. That only previously happened in the 1997 and 2001 Labour landslides.
Yes, but they've swapped places, with the Libdems taking 30% of the vote this time round when it was Labour taking 30% back in 1997. So not especially encouraging for Labour, although Corbyn doesn't seem to have made much difference one way or another with Labour on a similar percentage to the 2015 GE, I believe.
LibDems had the "mo" here from the start, Labour's vote actually held up rather better than nearly everybody thought (lots of predictions it would drop below 10%)

Worth remembering that the LibDems came second in Witney at the 2005 and 2010 GEs, as well as the 1980s.
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frightful_oik
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Re: Friday 21st October 2016

Post by frightful_oik »

RogerOThornhill wrote:Morning all.

Rushing around a bit this morning as I;m off to Derby soon for a couple of days.

A lot of comment on that Twitter about rewarding HTs that was on Newsnight. If that statistic about HTs coming in and excluding kids to get their results looking better is true, then they ought to be named and shamed. Totally unacceptable.
Doing anything interesting in Derby Roger?
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PaulfromYorkshire
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Re: Friday 21st October 2016

Post by PaulfromYorkshire »

AnatolyKasparov wrote:
Willow904 wrote:
AnatolyKasparov wrote:LibDems and Labour (just) outpolled the Tories in Witney. That only previously happened in the 1997 and 2001 Labour landslides.
Yes, but they've swapped places, with the Libdems taking 30% of the vote this time round when it was Labour taking 30% back in 1997. So not especially encouraging for Labour, although Corbyn doesn't seem to have made much difference one way or another with Labour on a similar percentage to the 2015 GE, I believe.
LibDems had the "mo" here from the start, Labour's vote actually held up rather better than nearly everybody thought (lots of predictions it would drop below 10%)

Worth remembering that the LibDems came second in Witney at the 2005 and 2010 GEs, as well as the 1980s.
Yes surely the story here is that the Tories are not doing quite as well as the stratospheric polls suggest.
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Re: Friday 21st October 2016

Post by PaulfromYorkshire »

Though here they are

Rothwell (Kettering) result:
CON: 48.3% (+10.6)
LAB: 34.4% (-6.7)
UKIP: 7.5% (-8.5)
GRN: 5.2% (+0.0)
LDEM: 4.6% (+4.6)
Con GAIN from Lab.
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Re: Friday 21st October 2016

Post by RogerOThornhill »

frightful_oik wrote:
RogerOThornhill wrote:Morning all.

Rushing around a bit this morning as I;m off to Derby soon for a couple of days.

A lot of comment on that Twitter about rewarding HTs that was on Newsnight. If that statistic about HTs coming in and excluding kids to get their results looking better is true, then they ought to be named and shamed. Totally unacceptable.
Doing anything interesting in Derby Roger?
The Quad arts centre on the marketplace is good for a meal or coffee or a movie.
Tell me to mind my own business if you want btw :D
Seeing a jazz group tonight and meeting up with an old work colleague tomorrow. Probably get time to take in the cathedral, art gallery and a couple of other bits. When I was thinking about going to see the band I realised my work colleague had moved up there so we arranged to meet.

Anyway time I was off.

Bye all.
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Re: Friday 21st October 2016

Post by PaulfromYorkshire »

All very confusing. We need an expert to do a round-up ;-)

Witham North (Braintree) result:
LAB: 37.5% (+6.1)
CON: 34.0% (-4.8)
GRN: 25.1% (+4.7)
LDEM: 3.4% (-5.9)
LAB Gain

Bumpstead (Braintree) result:
CON: 64.8% (+3.0)
UKIP: 14.8% (-4.8)
LAB: 8.3% (-10.2)
LDEM: 7.4% (+7.4)
GRN: 4.6% (+4.6)
Con HOLD.
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Re: Friday 21st October 2016

Post by AnatolyKasparov »

PaulfromYorkshire wrote:Though here they are

Rothwell (Kettering) result:
CON: 48.3% (+10.6)
LAB: 34.4% (-6.7)
UKIP: 7.5% (-8.5)
GRN: 5.2% (+0.0)
LDEM: 4.6% (+4.6)
Con GAIN from Lab.
Yes, by some distance Labour's worst result yesterday (and backing up that we have a bit of a "Midlands problem")

Also dropped two Welsh seats - to Plaid and an Independent - but those were both much trickier defences on paper.

And that result in Essex compensates to some degree :)
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Re: Friday 21st October 2016

Post by Womble44 »

JonnyT1234 wrote:Tories want Gary Lineker axed for backing refugees - and he's having none of it - Mirror Online
https://apple.news/AcrHG0dZqQSSa5Pfa5e7d3A" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Compare and contrast treatment of BBC for Clarkson (racism, violence) versus Lineker (compassion, empathy).
The reaction to Clarkson getting sacked was when I realised quite how thick and short-sighted a rather significant minority of people actually are. I refuse to believe they'd accept a co-worker hitting them, no matter how valuable or profitable that person was, why do they think someone else should? I can now see that some people voting against human rights, social security, etc. Literally do so because they don't think it will not affect them in the immediate future, and give absolutely no thought to problems later.

It's worse than selfish, because it actually goes against their interests as well as those of others
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Re: Friday 21st October 2016

Post by Willow904 »

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/10/20/ic ... permarket/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
New YouGov data shows that customers of the Boston branch of Iceland are likely to be the most Brexit-supporting in the country - with Co-op in Lambeth the most pro-Remain
There's a graph for all the supermarkets. It's quite freaky, as I do rather like the Co-op. And I've never shopped in Iceland, ever.
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GetYou
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Re: Friday 21st October 2016

Post by GetYou »

Womble44 wrote:It's worse than selfish, because it actually goes against their interests as well as those of others
That in a nutshell sums up the main problem with politics in this country :wall:
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Re: Friday 21st October 2016

Post by gilsey »

I don't think we've had this, from a few days ago.
Brexit: how a single word became the most powerful rhetorical device in a generation
Kevin Morrell, Professor of Strategy and British Academy Mid-Career Fellow, Warwick Business School, University of Warwick
https://theconversation.com/brexit-how- ... tion-66871" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Comparing 'brexit' with 'the deficit'.
Denying agency
In coalition, the Conservative party inherited a fiscal crisis but managed to frame its response – austerity – as something it had no choice over. The Tories positioned themselves as compelled to tackle “the deficit”. This, together with phrases like “clearing up Labour’s mess”, “balancing the nation’s books” and “long-term economic plan”, enabled them to implement severe budgetary constraints while still retaining enough support from the electorate.

The strategy was used to evade responsibility for spending cuts, even while large investments were protected in pet areas such as the HS2 rail project. “The deficit” helped them pursue a potentially divisive policy agenda without haemorrhaging support.

Currently “Brexit” is being fashioned to press for policy choices that were never voted on. Rather than acknowledging this is a new, radically complex and enormous policy agenda, “Brexit” is being explained simply as “instructions” that are following “the mandate; the will of the people”.
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gilsey
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Re: Friday 21st October 2016

Post by gilsey »

And this from Conservativehome (!) comparing brexit with the Iraq war (!!). This one's a bit wordy.
Garvan Walshe: The Government is making the same five strategic mistakes on Brexit that we made in Iraq
http://www.conservativehome.com/thecolu ... -iraq.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
2. Believing your own propaganda

We had told ourselves that Iraqis would not only be grateful for Saddam’s removal, but also happy to work under our tutelage to establish a pro-Western democratic regime there. This, our own propaganda, turned out to be completely wrong.

The equivalent Brexit mistake is to overestimate the ease with which Britain can do side-deals to obtain goods and services market access while closing its labour market to Europeans. Government ministers still talk about Germany’s desire to sell us their cars and France’s to supply us their wine and cheese. They need to get real. The reason England is uncomfortable with the EU is that it is a political project not just an economic one. That is why its continued existence means a lot more to the Germans and the French than the size of their exports of stereotypical goods.
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Re: Friday 21st October 2016

Post by SpinningHugo »

Willow904 wrote:
AnatolyKasparov wrote:LibDems and Labour (just) outpolled the Tories in Witney. That only previously happened in the 1997 and 2001 Labour landslides.
Yes, but they've swapped places, with the Libdems taking 30% of the vote this time round when it was Labour taking 30% back in 1997. So not especially encouraging for Labour, although Corbyn doesn't seem to have made much difference one way or another with Labour on a similar percentage to the 2015 GE, I believe.
Interesting too that Labour membership in the constituency more than doubled from 500 to 1200, but the vote still fell.
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Re: Friday 21st October 2016

Post by SpinningHugo »

PaulfromYorkshire wrote:
AnatolyKasparov wrote:
Willow904 wrote: Yes, but they've swapped places, with the Libdems taking 30% of the vote this time round when it was Labour taking 30% back in 1997. So not especially encouraging for Labour, although Corbyn doesn't seem to have made much difference one way or another with Labour on a similar percentage to the 2015 GE, I believe.
LibDems had the "mo" here from the start, Labour's vote actually held up rather better than nearly everybody thought (lots of predictions it would drop below 10%)

Worth remembering that the LibDems came second in Witney at the 2005 and 2010 GEs, as well as the 1980s.
Yes surely the story here is that the Tories are not doing quite as well as the stratospheric polls suggest.

"Who would you vote for in a General Election?" Just not the same question.

I suspect Tory support is overstated, but so is Labour's. A national campaign would be brutal.
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Re: Friday 21st October 2016

Post by SpinningHugo »

FWIIW this from YouGov strikes me as likelier to be closer to the truth than IPSOS/MORI

CON 42% ±0
LAB 26% -2
UKIP 12% +1
LD 8% -1
GRN 5% +2
Fieldwork 19-20 Oct, change from 11-12 Oct
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Re: Friday 21st October 2016

Post by StephenDolan »

One of these days, an increase in government borrowing won't be classed as a shock or surprise in the news headlines.
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Re: Friday 21st October 2016

Post by SpinningHugo »

Owen Jones tends to save the stuff people don't want to hear for his blog

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tinybgoat
Speaker of the House
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Re: Friday 21st October 2016

Post by tinybgoat »

I came across this website, randomly, whilst searching for 'abracadabra brexit', and came up with a blog entry, where the writer talks about a day trip to Wales, including Aberfan.

https://aliyasminali.wordpress.com/2016 ... xit-wales/

Reading a more recent entry, she has this:
https://aliyasminali.wordpress.com
The British Election Study analysis of the referendum vote suggests that voters identify more strongly with ‘Leave’ or ‘Remain’ as labels, than with the political parties. So my radical suggestion is that for the duration of this parliament, and in the next general election, we rest party labels in parliament, and regroup MPs and peers as The Brexit Party and The Grown-Up Party.
Don't think it's a unique idea, but it's good reading.

Also talking of Wales, hope Yahyah's OK.
StephenDolan
First Secretary of State
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Re: Friday 21st October 2016

Post by StephenDolan »

SpinningHugo wrote:Owen Jones tends to save the stuff people don't want to hear for his blog

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It's another good piece by him. I'll ignore your snide intro. Or does writing that mean I haven't? Anyway.
I especially liked the end

"Better to upset people now than to wake up after a general election that decimates Labour and consigns us to right-wing Tory rule for a generation to come." Nail. Head.
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AngryAsWell
Prime Minister
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Re: Friday 21st October 2016

Post by AngryAsWell »

Scottish Westminster voting intention:
SNP: 49% (-1)
CON: 20% (+5)
LAB: 17% (-7)
LDEM: 8% (-)
(via BMG / 28 Sep - 04 Oct)
Chgs. vs. GE2015

I don't think I've ever been this sad & heavy hearted over politics :(
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frightful_oik
Whip
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Re: Friday 21st October 2016

Post by frightful_oik »

StephenDolan wrote:
SpinningHugo wrote:Owen Jones tends to save the stuff people don't want to hear for his blog

" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
It's another good piece by him. I'll ignore your snide intro. Or does writing that mean I haven't? Anyway.
I especially liked the end

"Better to upset people now than to wake up after a general election that decimates Labour and consigns us to right-wing Tory rule for a generation to come." Nail. Head.
Indeed. The PLP won't like being told to STFU unless they've got something useful to say. And again the snap election canard.
Shake your chains to earth like dew
Which in sleep had fallen on you-
Ye are many - they are few."
StephenDolan
First Secretary of State
Posts: 3725
Joined: Mon 25 Aug, 2014 10:15 pm

Re: Friday 21st October 2016

Post by StephenDolan »

AngryAsWell wrote:Scottish Westminster voting intention:
SNP: 49% (-1)
CON: 20% (+5)
LAB: 17% (-7)
LDEM: 8% (-)
(via BMG / 28 Sep - 04 Oct)
Chgs. vs. GE2015

I don't think I've ever been this sad & heavy hearted over politics :(
Yes. Be interesting to see how the next set of Scottish polls are.
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