Monday 21st November 2016

Post by **refitman** » Mon 21 Nov, 2016 7:10 am

Morning all.

tinyclanger2 · Post by **tinyclanger2** » Mon 21 Nov, 2016 8:34 am

Labour getting in under Blair was a blip - I doubt it will happen again
The serfs have never stopped tugging their forelocks for long enough for it to matter

yahyah · Post by **yahyah** » Mon 21 Nov, 2016 8:40 am

Attlee, Wilson ? Blips too ? Suppose they were in the sense that they lay between seemingly endless Tory governments, but 1945 was one hell of a blip wasn't it ?

tinyclanger2 · Post by **tinyclanger2** » Mon 21 Nov, 2016 8:52 am

tinyclanger2 · Post by **tinyclanger2** » Mon 21 Nov, 2016 8:52 am

blips

tinyclanger2 · Post by **tinyclanger2** » Mon 21 Nov, 2016 8:53 am

we're useless

RogerOThornhill · Post by **RogerOThornhill** » Mon 21 Nov, 2016 9:06 am

Morning all.

Britain sleepwalking into care crisis, Ros Altmann warns

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-38047078

Britain is in danger of "sleepwalking into a social care crisis", a former pensions minister has warned.

Ros Altmann called on the government to use tax breaks to help people save for care in later life, as she said the cost of funding provision was pushing the NHS in England to breaking point.

She said she warned other ministers of looming problems last year.

The Department of Health said it was significantly raising the funds local authorities have access to for care.

tinyclanger2 · Post by **tinyclanger2** » Mon 21 Nov, 2016 9:26 am

https://www.theguardian.com/environment ... nt-schemes" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
no money for flood management

tug tug

tinybgoat · Post by **tinybgoat** » Mon 21 Nov, 2016 9:43 am

Thought this was an interesting example, of the difficulty in realising one of Trump's populist policies:

http://www.zdnet.com/article/could-trum ... an-iphone/

It's no secret that President-elect Donald
Trump isn't happy that iPhones are manufactured in China rather than the US. During his campaign he pledged that he would "get Apple to start making their computers and their iPhones on our land, not in China," and it appears that this prompted Apple to look into the feasibility of shifting production.

tinybgoat · Post by **tinybgoat** » Mon 21 Nov, 2016 10:11 am

tinyclanger2 wrote:https://www.theguardian.com/environment ... nt-schemes
no money for flood management

tug tug

Wasn't that meant to be funded by increased insurance premium?

http://www.moneywise.co.uk/news/2016-03 ... d-defences

gilsey · Post by **gilsey** » Mon 21 Nov, 2016 10:26 am

yahyah wrote:Attlee, Wilson ? Blips too ? Suppose they were in the sense that they lay between seemingly endless Tory governments, but 1945 was one hell of a blip wasn't it ?

One hell of a blip on the back of everyone pitching in together during WW2. The plebs were needed and they knew it.

RogerOThornhill · Post by **RogerOThornhill** » Mon 21 Nov, 2016 10:40 am

Another u-turn then - this time about having employees on boards.

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PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Mon 21 Nov, 2016 10:48 am

Good morfternoon.

Labour's Rebecca Long-Bailey (sounds like an architectural feature - but I digress), in her response to Theresa May's speech to the CBI, going on about the "elite" again. Wrong word! Conjures up thoughts of people like the Quing and Bertie Wooster (whom everybody loves, don't they?) rather than hard-nosed business types, although RB does try emphasise that the latter category is what she's talking about. Too late, though - the seed has been planted. Get a grip! Basic psychology.

tinyclanger2 · Post by **tinyclanger2** » Mon 21 Nov, 2016 11:00 am

quite.
useless.

StephenDolan · Post by **StephenDolan** » Mon 21 Nov, 2016 11:08 am

PorFavor wrote:Good morfternoon.

Labour's Rebecca Long-Bailey (sounds like an architectural feature - but I digress), in her response to Theresa May's speech to the CBI, going on about the "elite" again. Wrong word! Conjures up thoughts of people like the Quing and Bertie Wooster (whom everybody loves, don't they?) rather than hard-nosed business types, although RB does try emphasise that the latter category is what she's talking about. Too late, though - the seed has been planted. Get a grip! Basic psychology.

Yep. The long get all the buzzwords in response comes across as Blah blah blah.

I'd like to see the initial response as a couple of tight sentences max. Frances OGrady is far better at this, as is Ed Miliband these days. Get the core response out into the usual outlets, flesh it out in interviews, referencing the core response phrase are least once.

Too simplistic?

gilsey · Post by **gilsey** » Mon 21 Nov, 2016 11:17 am

The conditions for Labour's previous successes are falling apart. Where do we go from here?

BY BRIDGET PHILLIPSON
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/st ... e-do-we-go" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Have we had this? It's very good, very depressing too.

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Mon 21 Nov, 2016 11:25 am

I referenced it last night - its a good piece, but a smidgen of optimism might not have gone amiss I agree.

Willow904 · Post by **Willow904** » Mon 21 Nov, 2016 11:39 am

AnatolyKasparov wrote:I referenced it last night - its a good piece, but a smidgen of optimism might not have gone amiss I agree.

If it was optimistic it wouldn't be honest, I suspect. However, although the author makes the point that the right policy to follow may not always be what is popular, she falls short of highlighting the role of politicians in making popular the policies they think are right. There is too much chasing popular sentiment from one wing of the party and too much sitting back and expecting popular sentiment to come round to them from the other. Some of the problem stems from clear division in the party as to what is the right policy, but some of it stems from a lack of leadership and a lack of understanding of the importance of leadership skills in shaping public opinion.

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Mon 21 Nov, 2016 11:42 am

I'm not advocating false optimism, just a recognition that the political climate can change in unexpected ways (as the last few years must surely have demonstrated) and that this government will offer opportunities that a reasonably united and self confident opposition could exploit.

The point that there is a wider crisis of centre-left politics throughout the developed world is one that can't be emphasised enough, however.

SpinningHugo · Post by **SpinningHugo** » Mon 21 Nov, 2016 11:45 am

AnatolyKasparov wrote:I referenced it last night - its a good piece, but a smidgen of optimism might not have gone amiss I agree.

It is much too optimistic, as it assumes something can be done. It can't. Scotland, for example, is permanently gone.

The other problem with it is that although it is ok at analysing the problem it suggests no real solution. It is at the same level as Miliband calling for 'deep thinking'. You need to be a bit more specific.

It also underplays how catastrophic any election campaign will be for Labour. The Tories will go after Corbyn and McDonnell for their past statements about the IRA and things like tax, and Labour will be stuffed. MPs outside of the core group won't be able to go on TV as they wont be able to answer the questions like "if you don't have confidence in Corbyn as leader, how can you have confidence in him as PM?"

If we want Labour to be the vehicle to remove the Tories from power, and I am not at all sure we do as its brand is now so badly damaged, it has to be on a very long timeframe. 2025, or 2030.

it is hard for people like the author to face up to the fact that all their efforts are a sunk cost. Lost. Being realistic isn't cheering, but there are even worse things to worry about (like climate change and so on).

Take comfort in things other than politics is what I do.

SpinningHugo · Post by **SpinningHugo** » Mon 21 Nov, 2016 11:51 am

Willow904 wrote:
AnatolyKasparov wrote:I referenced it last night - its a good piece, but a smidgen of optimism might not have gone amiss I agree.
If it was optimistic it wouldn't be honest, I suspect. However, although the author makes the point that the right policy to follow may not always be what is popular, she falls short of highlighting the role of politicians in making popular the policies they think are right. There is too much chasing popular sentiment from one wing of the party and too much sitting back and expecting popular sentiment to come round to them from the other. Some of the problem stems from clear division in the party as to what is the right policy, but some of it stems from a lack of leadership and a lack of understanding of the importance of leadership skills in shaping public opinion.

From 'my' wing of the party it is fatalism. They know they have lost for good. The party has been transformed. I know Labour Mps with my views who don't quit because

1. They are MPs and feel it would betray their electorate

and

2. They have put so much of their lives into Labour that they don't want to just give it up.

but their reason tells them they are stuffed. the Labour party is no longer a realistic vehicle for anything other than Corbynism. The crushing defeat to come will jut make things worse not better. Once Labour ceased to be a viable party of government it lost the constraint of trying to tailor what it stood for to accommodate the electorate. Why bother?

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Mon 21 Nov, 2016 12:01 pm

Don't worry SH, Mr Tony is going to return and save us all

SpinningHugo · Post by **SpinningHugo** » Mon 21 Nov, 2016 12:04 pm

AnatolyKasparov wrote:Don't worry SH, Mr Tony is going to return and save us all

My point of course being that he isn't. And nor is anyone else.

Even your best most optimistic take is the line of Wilkins Micawber "Something will turn up."

Well no. All the evidence points to nothing turning up and things getting worse still.

RogerOThornhill · Post by **RogerOThornhill** » Mon 21 Nov, 2016 12:05 pm

StephenDolan · Post by **StephenDolan** » Mon 21 Nov, 2016 12:06 pm

All the evidence points to nothing turning up.

An interesting turn of phrase.

RogerOThornhill · Post by **RogerOThornhill** » Mon 21 Nov, 2016 12:09 pm

Meanwhile the economic illiteracy continues...

George Osborne Verified account
‏@George_Osborne

Good to see briefing that corporation tax should be cut again. We got it from 28% to 17%. Next step let's go to 15% & show UK open to biz

So what does business need to invest?

1. A market and hence
2. Demand
3. Certainty

Given this...

https://www.euractiv.com/section/uk-eur ... nto-doubt/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

why on earth does business need yet another CT cut? That won't persuade them to invest if 1-3 above isn't there.

SpinningHugo · Post by **SpinningHugo** » Mon 21 Nov, 2016 12:09 pm

StephenDolan wrote:All the evidence points to nothing turning up.

An interesting turn of phrase.

"Something unexpected might happen"

Really? Is that the best hope?

I don't have anything else to offer either.

Wait. Let time pass and see if something happens or someone competent turns up.

But don't hope too much, or you'll get upset when it goes badly.

Willow904 · Post by **Willow904** » Mon 21 Nov, 2016 12:13 pm

AnatolyKasparov wrote:I'm not advocating false optimism, just a recognition that the political climate can change in unexpected ways (as the last few years must surely have demonstrated) and that this government will offer opportunities that a reasonably united and self confident opposition could exploit.

The point that there is a wider crisis of centre-left politics throughout the developed world is one that can't be emphasised enough, however.

It's certainly true that the Tory party won't be able to escape facing its own schism eventually. Labour is having its nervous breakdown first because it doesn't have the prize of current power to motivate those of diverse opinion to keep up the appearance of a united front. Labour is also less divided on its idea of final destination, with disagreement focusing more on method of rallying support. The Tories are currently locked in a more existential battle because the means and the power are there to provide victory to one side over the other. Whether the Eurosceptics win their hard Brexit or the free marketeers win their soft one, will have serious implications for the future of the party. May is not exactly the most skillful of politicians, with a small majority, so I don't think it unreasonable to hold out hope that she will eventually take a false step and the cracks in the Tory party will start to show.

NonOxCol · Post by **NonOxCol** » Mon 21 Nov, 2016 12:17 pm

Hello.

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Video. NSFW.

AngryAsWell · Post by **AngryAsWell** » Mon 21 Nov, 2016 12:17 pm

SpinningHugo wrote:
StephenDolan wrote:All the evidence points to nothing turning up.

An interesting turn of phrase.
"Something unexpected might happen"

Really? Is that the best hope?

I don't have anything else to offer either.

Wait. Let time pass and see if something happens or someone competent turns up.

But don't hope too much, or you'll get upset when it goes badly.

Have a hug Hugo, you sound really down.
All good things must come to an end, so too must bad ones. We just have to hang on in till they do.

(I don't disagree with you, just trying to be Barby Bright-side)

tinyclanger2 · Post by **tinyclanger2** » Mon 21 Nov, 2016 12:34 pm

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/ ... -in-the-uk" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

not sure this is very relevant given it was polled in August. Still, reported today.

tinyclanger2 · Post by **tinyclanger2** » Mon 21 Nov, 2016 12:36 pm

Theresa May expected to try and match Donald Trump's corporation tax cuts
The Prime Minister is looking to win back the business vote - in a speech that contrasts with some earlier attacks
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/po ... 29191.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

yeah those spectacularly economically competent Tories

StephenDolan · Post by **StephenDolan** » Mon 21 Nov, 2016 12:41 pm

tinyclanger2 wrote:
Theresa May expected to try and match Donald Trump's corporation tax cuts
The Prime Minister is looking to win back the business vote - in a speech that contrasts with some earlier attacks
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/po ... 29191.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
yeah those spectacularly economically competent Tories

I look forward to the BBC economy bod outlining how much we currently take from CT and what we'd take from the proposed 15% rate. Don't forget to stick the Laffer Curve up their...

Even better, let's hear from Richard Murphy and TPA.

tinyclanger2 · Post by **tinyclanger2** » Mon 21 Nov, 2016 12:43 pm

Just another cost of Brexit.

Wow we really showed Europe didn't we.

tinybgoat · Post by **tinybgoat** » Mon 21 Nov, 2016 12:47 pm

Labour did not crash the economy.

http://www.libdemvoice.org/labour-did-n ... 52516.html

Can't seem to copy/paste, but surprised to see it there.

RogerOThornhill · Post by **RogerOThornhill** » Mon 21 Nov, 2016 12:52 pm

StephenDolan wrote:
tinyclanger2 wrote:
Theresa May expected to try and match Donald Trump's corporation tax cuts
The Prime Minister is looking to win back the business vote - in a speech that contrasts with some earlier attacks
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/po ... 29191.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
yeah those spectacularly economically competent Tories
I look forward to the BBC economy bod outlining how much we currently take from CT and what we'd take from the proposed 15% rate. Don't forget to stick the Laffer Curve up their...

Even better, let's hear from Richard Murphy and TPA.

I've been out of the game too long to remember precisely but I;m pretty sure there was a limit to how much dividends could be paid out - think it was a set percentage of company profits but will stand corrected if anyone else knows.

All it does is give money to companies that have plenty already and leave the public finances looking worse. Utterly clueless.

yahyah · Post by **yahyah** » Mon 21 Nov, 2016 12:53 pm

tinybgoat wrote:Labour did not crash the economy.

http://www.libdemvoice.org/labour-did-n ... 52516.html

Can't seem to copy/paste, but surprised to see it there.

Better late than never from a Lib Dem.
It would have been a help if Clegg and his pals hadn't spent their time in government spouting that Labour did crash the economy. Clegg was always moaning that Labour hadn't apologised for it, and he used that phrase.

Willow904 · Post by **Willow904** » Mon 21 Nov, 2016 12:54 pm

tinybgoat wrote:Labour did not crash the economy.

http://www.libdemvoice.org/labour-did-n ... 52516.html

Can't seem to copy/paste, but surprised to see it there.

They're in the market for disillusioned Labour votes. Flattery gets you everywhere and all that.

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Mon 21 Nov, 2016 12:59 pm

yahyah wrote:
tinybgoat wrote:Labour did not crash the economy.

http://www.libdemvoice.org/labour-did-n ... 52516.html

Can't seem to copy/paste, but surprised to see it there.
Better late than never from a Lib Dem.
It would have been a help if Clegg and his pals hadn't spent their time in government spouting that Labour did crash the economy. Clegg was always moaning that Labour hadn't apologised for it, and he used that phrase.

Quite a few LibDems parroted the asinine "maxed out the national credit card" soundbite as well.

If anything even more unforgivable because it helped entrench the fallacious but pervasive "a government's finances should be run just like a household's" mentality.

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Mon 21 Nov, 2016 1:20 pm

Good-afternoon, everyone.

Willow904 · Post by **Willow904** » Mon 21 Nov, 2016 1:22 pm

I like the way Clive Lewis sets the Tories' lack of investment in an international context:

Britain has been falling short of other countries’ R&D spend for years, something reflected in our long-term productivity problem. With even the chancellor admitting that the economy is in for a rough time as we navigate Brexit, and the future of EU-backed science funding now in question, it has never been more important for Government to be stoking the flames of innovation by committing significant public backing to R&D. But today’s commitment will leave us well below the OECD average, and well below the 3% of GDP that the OECD recommends.

This instantly gives accusations of underfunding more substance. This is something I'd like to see more of. People need to be able to evaluate objectively how the Tories' are running the country and comparing how much the UK spends on things like health and transport and research and development with other countries we like to think of as our equals can help in this.

Edited to add the quote is from the G live blog.

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Mon 21 Nov, 2016 1:31 pm

Here is Clive Lewis, the shadow business secretary, on Theresa May’s speech.

While I welcome the government’s commitment to start reversing the decline in research and development (R&D) spend, this is woefully inadequate and risks being too little too late (Politics Live, Guardian - my emphasis)

Stop it! Stop being so apparently thankful for crumbs. Go for outright attack without the polite preamble (which is probably the only bit that sticks in people's minds).

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Mon 21 Nov, 2016 1:33 pm

I edited the above to state that the emphasis is mine

AngryAsWell · Post by **AngryAsWell** » Mon 21 Nov, 2016 2:02 pm

Interesting..

Jo Maugham QC
‏@JolyonMaugham
I can't disclose details but I am already working up a potential CJEU reference from outside UK raising revocability

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gilsey · Post by **gilsey** » Mon 21 Nov, 2016 2:04 pm

Choices.

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Mon 21 Nov, 2016 2:07 pm

Labour party leaders and people, we are the antithesis of right-wing nutters, let's act accordingly. No rule says populist leaders must
get there by stoking hate. Inspire and gain confidence of people with love of life that made lefties of us in the first place. Lighten up
and offer wholesome fun instead. People are anxious, busy. No thundering, solemn sermons. Give our joyful, genuine selves, up front
and sincere. We are comfortable within ourselves. Does anyone other than family see our lightness? Please, share it widely. Our work
is ourselves, have a good time, don't be afraid of the future, plan for it the best we can.

Play.
Surrender.
Let people see our joy.
Don't compete for dominance and we'll be indomitable.

I dedicate this post to the man who inspired these reflections, Ed Balls.

gilsey · Post by **gilsey** » Mon 21 Nov, 2016 2:14 pm

Here's a properly scary graph. Red line is now.

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Mon 21 Nov, 2016 2:22 pm

SpinningHugo doing a rendition of Wild Cherry's Play That Funky Music wearing a Labour Hell Yes T-shirt live in public would cheer me up no end. Do it for the people, country and the Labour party.

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Mon 21 Nov, 2016 2:39 pm

Tories have 33-point lead over Labour on economic competence, ICM poll suggests

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/bl ... ad2d75bc1f" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

We don't need no stinking economic competence
economic competence is for sissies

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Mon 21 Nov, 2016 3:09 pm

Pat McFadden doing the same thing. Is it just that they like the sound of their own voices? Are they modelling themselves on past orators?

That contribution could have been less than half as long, and more than twice as punchy. The first (long) paragraph's-worth could have been done away with for starters.

(The text is over at Politics Live, 14.41, Guardian)