FlyTheNest

Morning all.

Thanks for the late night vigil Hindle.

Morning!

I thought I'd construct a quick chart showing the changes in Sleaford since Blair's zenith. There was no UKIP in 1997, it was Referendum.

Britain Elects ‏@britainelects 10h10 hours ago
Horsehay & Lightmoor (Telford & Wrekin) result:
LAB: 45.9% (+20.5)
CON: 38.2% (-3.8)
UKIP: 15.9% (-1.6)
LDem and Grn didn't stand this time.

Madeley (Newcastle under Lyme) result:
IND: 64.8% (+64.8)
CON: 15.8% (-7.1)
LDEM: 10.6% (+10.6)
LAB: 8.8% (-35.5)
UKIP and Grn didn't stand.

Britain Elects ‏@britainelects Dec 6
Carnoustie (Angus) result:
IND: 43.6% (+43.6)
SNP: 32.1% (-4.3)
CON: 17.7% (+11.5)
LAB: 4.4% (-1.8)
LDEM: 2.3% (+1.4)
Ind gain from SNP.

If only we had someone who could make sense of these results!

PaulfromYorkshire wrote:Morning!

I thought I'd construct a quick chart showing the changes in Sleaford since Blair's zenith. There was no UKIP in 1997, it was Referendum.

There be a trend!

PS I note we may have already discussed the Carnoustie one because it was on Monday (strangely as AK has pointed out).

StephenDolan wrote:

PaulfromYorkshire wrote:Morning!

I thought I'd construct a quick chart showing the changes in Sleaford since Blair's zenith. There was no UKIP in 1997, it was Referendum.

There be a trend!

I don't know the area at all, but, from what I read, the chart probably reflects both the rise and fall of the various parties nationally and the changing demographic of that part of Lincolnshire.

There was also some tinkering with the boundary prior to 2010 I think.

Good morfternoon.

Nick Robinson ‏@bbcnickrobinson 3h3 hours ago
Ouch. "Foreign Secretaries are either dull or dangerous and Boris is not dull" Sir Malcolm Rifkind tells @BBCr4today

PaulfromYorkshire wrote:Nick Robinson ‏@bbcnickrobinson 3h3 hours ago
Ouch. "Foreign Secretaries are either dull or dangerous and Boris is not dull" Sir Malcolm Rifkind tells @BBCr4today

I think it was Malcolm Rifkind who once said, "You know that you're no longer a minister when you get into the back of a car and it doesn't go anywhere".


Edit - or words to that effect. I thought it was quite funny whatever\whoever. But my money's on it being Malcolm Rifkind.

Edited again to add an "and"

Capita to replace staff with robots to save money

Outsourcing giant to axe 2,000 jobs and use ‘proprietary robotic solutions’ after clients cut spending following Brexit vote (Guardian)

https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... save-money

Good-morning, everyone.

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/d ... cb67992bcc" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

David Cameron says populism cost him his job

David Cameron has used his first major speech since resigning in June to explain why he felt people voted for Brexit – and defend his decision to hold the referendum.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/12 ... eferendum/

“I believed and I still believe that the fact we hadn’t had a referendum on this issue for 40 years – in spite of the fact that the European Union was changing and changing – was beginning to poison British politics,” he said.

After Richmond, a Remainer area, how is Labour doing in a Leave seat?

Bad luck really. I have always claimed the Corbyn/McDonnell leadership was electorally doomed, but I didn't foresee Labour being squeezed between Leave and Remain parties.

I suppose that effect won't last as the EU recedes as an issue?

As for the locals: look at the *trend* and compare to 2010-. Grim.

PaulfromYorkshire wrote:http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/d ... cb67992bcc

David Cameron says populism cost him his job

Good grief. His decision to offer a referendum to stop Ukip taking votes off the Tories in 2015 is the only reason we are in this mess. His shallow political manoeuvring has put the future of our country at great risk and he was the one in charge, calling all the shots, yet it's somehow someone else's fault he lost his referendum that he decided to call? I understand offering a referendum to win the election, but why the hell did he give himself just 6 months to counter 2 decades of anti-EU propagand a in the press? Given "leave" had been polling well ahead of "remain" just a few years previously during the Eurozone crisis, it was surely clear that remain was coming from behind and could well lose in a snap vote. Why on earth didn't he give himself more time to make the case for "in"? I've never understood that and would genuinely be interested in his thinking, supposing there was any thinking, of course, which is not a given.

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SpinningHugo wrote:After Richmond, a Remainer area, how is Labour doing in a Leave seat?

Bad luck really. I have always claimed the Corbyn/McDonnell leadership was electorally doomed, but I didn't foresee Labour being squeezed between Leave and Remain parties.

I suppose that effect won't last as the EU recedes as an issue?

As for the locals: look at the *trend* and compare to 2010-. Grim.

You have no idea why people voted as they did.

You could just as easily say that divided parties such as UKIP and Labour fared badly.

Or you could just be grateful that in both by-elections the electorate saw off nasty racist candidates. I am.

PaulfromYorkshire wrote:http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/d ... cb67992bcc

David Cameron says populism cost him his job

Didn't it?

Isn't Leave moronic ill-informed populism of the worst Ukip inspired kind.

SpinningHugo wrote:

PaulfromYorkshire wrote:http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/d ... cb67992bcc

David Cameron says populism cost him his job

Didn't it?

Isn't Leave moronic ill-informed populism of the worst Ukip inspired kind.

Unthinking ignorant populism kept him in his job in 2015 and then bit him in 2016. He is absolutely in the heart of the problem.

Willow904 wrote:

PaulfromYorkshire wrote:http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/d ... cb67992bcc

David Cameron says populism cost him his job

Good grief. His decision to offer a referendum to stop Ukip taking votes off the Tories in 2015 is the only reason we are in this mess. His shallow political manoeuvring has put the future of our country at great risk and he was the one in charge, calling all the shots, yet it's somehow someone else's fault he lost his referendum that he decided to call? I understand offering a referendum to win the election, but why the hell did he give himself just 6 months to counter 2 decades of anti-EU propagand a in the press? Given "leave" had been polling well ahead of "remain" just a few years previously during the Eurozone crisis, it was surely clear that remain was coming from behind and could well lose in a snap vote. Why on earth didn't he give himself more time to make the case for "in"? I've never understood that and would genuinely be interested in his thinking, supposing there was any thinking, of course, which is not a given.

I'm confident he doesn't think deeply at all, Willow, and this noise he's making now is part of his fictional story created and called, his life.

PaulfromYorkshire wrote:

SpinningHugo wrote:After Richmond, a Remainer area, how is Labour doing in a Leave seat?

Bad luck really. I have always claimed the Corbyn/McDonnell leadership was electorally doomed, but I didn't foresee Labour being squeezed between Leave and Remain parties.

I suppose that effect won't last as the EU recedes as an issue?

As for the locals: look at the *trend* and compare to 2010-. Grim.

You have no idea why people voted as they did.

You could just as easily say that divided parties such as UKIP and Labour fared badly.

Or you could just be grateful that in both by-elections the electorate saw off nasty racist candidates. I am.

Ukip placed rather well (astonishingly).

The "divided party" excuse can't last forever. Anymore than "it is the Bitterites fault." Blair left office a decade ago, and most of us have left.

SpinningHugo wrote:

PaulfromYorkshire wrote:

SpinningHugo wrote:After Richmond, a Remainer area, how is Labour doing in a Leave seat?

Bad luck really. I have always claimed the Corbyn/McDonnell leadership was electorally doomed, but I didn't foresee Labour being squeezed between Leave and Remain parties.

I suppose that effect won't last as the EU recedes as an issue?

As for the locals: look at the *trend* and compare to 2010-. Grim.

You have no idea why people voted as they did.

You could just as easily say that divided parties such as UKIP and Labour fared badly.

Or you could just be grateful that in both by-elections the electorate saw off nasty racist candidates. I am.

Ukip placed rather well (astonishingly).

The "divided party" excuse can't last forever. Anymore than "it is the Bitterites fault." Blair left office a decade ago, and most of us have left.

But none of us know why these results are what they are. I'm just showing how you can use them to support pretty much any agenda you happen to have.

These by elections are both bad labour results in different ways, but they are also not terribly illustrative of much in a more general big picture way. If Labour didn't even come that close in Sleaford in 97/2001 then it's a seat they will never ever win, and I'm minded to think that they shouldn't have glorified Zach's attempts at principle by standing against him.

I suppose they might create some hope that Labour look again at the path they are taking about the EU and about immigration. But not much hope.

adam wrote:

SpinningHugo wrote:

PaulfromYorkshire wrote:http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/d ... cb67992bcc

David Cameron says populism cost him his job

Didn't it?

Isn't Leave moronic ill-informed populism of the worst Ukip inspired kind.

Unthinking ignorant populism kept him in his job in 2015 and then bit him in 2016. He is absolutely in the heart of the problem.

Yes, exactly, adam, Cameron was a populist himself, he indulged in it recklessly and irresponsibly.

Cameron's interview is astonishingly full of shit, even for him.

So you will see a greater emphasis on trying to help those who are left behind.

Those who you have very intentionally and deliberately worked to leave behind.

but defended his career-defining decision to call the EU referendum, saying the issue of Europe had “poisoned” British politics for 40 years.

Because you and your colleagues and fellow travellers have nurtured it, encouraged it, developed it and relied upon it, and have never stood up for the right arguments.

Some countries have seen decades of lost growth

Like us, because of your policies

Labour have very little organisation in Sleaford/NH (few candidates in local elections, always a telling sign) which explains why their vote fell by more than in Witney - also a safe Tory seat with the LibDems rising, but one where Labour has a visible and active presence in certain parts.

I don't think Brexit has as much to do with it as some are saying (if it had, UKIP would surely have done better than they did - actually down on last year despite taking 2nd this time)

Only two separate pieces before lunchtime on Labour coming 4th in a by-election and how the world is falling in on the party?

Come on Guardian, you're slipping.

Not that surprised by the Sleaford result. Labour have never had a chance there. I wouldn't be surprised if tactical voting to prevent a UKIP win played a part.

Most surprising thing is that the Tory woman is an NHS hospital doctor. What the **** does she think has been happening to the NHS over the last six years?

nickyinnorfolk wrote:Not that surprised by the Sleaford result. Labour have never had a chance there. I wouldn't be surprised if tactical voting to prevent a UKIP win played a part.

Most surprising thing is that the Tory woman is an NHS hospital doctor. What the **** does she think has been happening to the NHS over the last six years?

Tidying up Labour's mess. What else?

County council elections, in May''s post Article 50 honeymoon, are going to be like this, I fear.

Would be a good time for Jez to walk, if so. They need to find a successor. All the 40 or so Jez loyalists need is about 15 more MPs for their choice, and they'll win.

Not sure if there is going to be a post Article 50 "honeymoon", but point taken.

Though we shouldn't forget that Labour did significantly better in last May's elections (Scotland excepted) "than expected".

There's a good round up of Trump's appointments so far in the guardian here - each new appointment is more suggestion that he will govern like he campaigned.

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I'm feeling sentimental. I thoroughly deserve it, but please don't make fun of me too much.

adam wrote:There's a good round up of Trump's appointments so far in the guardian here - each new appointment is more suggestion that he will govern like he campaigned.

It's like the Roman Empire falling into degenerated chaos.

I didn't know 'chaos' was pronounced with a keɪ instead of a /tʃ/ until I was ten years old. I knew what the word meant from
reading it in context a few years prior to the pronunciation lesson. English is my first and only language. I've been asked about
my accent since I was a kid. Moving around a lot, a child picks up all kinds of different people lingo.

Afternoon all.

I've been on a round trip to sunny Milton Keynes with a short coffee stop to catch my breath before heading home. 3 copies of *that* deposited but have to wait until early Feb for the next awards committee sitting since I missed one that took place earlier this week.

Fake Audiences Update - BBC QT
http://linkis.com/org.uk/VM2kr" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Lucy Powell MP ‏@LucyMPowell 3h3 hours ago
How the PM misled Parliament on grammars - great @SchoolsWeek investigation into the PM's response to my PMQ

http://schoolsweek.co.uk/did-theresa-ma ... ign=buffer" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

AnatolyKasparov wrote:Not sure if there is going to be a post Article 50 "honeymoon", but point taken.

Though we shouldn't forget that Labour did significantly better in last May's elections (Scotland excepted) "than expected".

They did, but in much better territory. Council Councils are their weakest. They did OK in 2013, but they should in opposition be winning a few of them. I think it'll be tough. May will have just invoked Article 50, there'll be a "cake and eat it" plan, and it'll seem fairly heady.

It'll be tough whoever is in charge, but a 3rd place should finish Jez.

Non populist Cameron-

the economy
benefits
pensions triple lock (unaffordable, per Philip Hammond)
raising tax threshold
EU
wind farms
speed cameras

Sure to be a lot more.

council tax

Uber is treating its drivers as sweated labour, says report

Earnings are often less than minimum wage and ‘barely sufficient to sustain existence’, according to MP Frank Field (Guardian)

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/ ... nimum-wage

StephenDolan wrote:

nickyinnorfolk wrote:Not that surprised by the Sleaford result. Labour have never had a chance there. I wouldn't be surprised if tactical voting to prevent a UKIP win played a part.

Most surprising thing is that the Tory woman is an NHS hospital doctor. What the **** does she think has been happening to the NHS over the last six years?

Tidying up Labour's mess. What else?

She's evidently not stupid, being a doctor and all that. It's weird though how brain washed even clever people can be.

Sarah Wollaston must wonder though, especially since her own daughter escaped to work in Oz.

I didn't see Question Time but I know she was on it along with the nightmare of Farage, Mensch and Will Self

https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2016/ ... red-doping" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;


Russian state doped more than 1,000 athletes and corrupted London 2012

TORY MP’S COMMENTS ON UK TRADE DEALS SHOWS HOW LITTLE MANY PROMINENT BREXITERS KNOW

https://politicalscrapbook.net/2016/12/ ... ters-know/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

EU negotiators will offer Brits an individual opt-in to remain EU citizens, chief negotiator confirms
Exclusive: Guy Verhofstadt has fast-tracked the plan and will include it in his mandate

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/po ... 65271.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Tubby Isaacs wrote:

AnatolyKasparov wrote:Not sure if there is going to be a post Article 50 "honeymoon", but point taken.

Though we shouldn't forget that Labour did significantly better in last May's elections (Scotland excepted) "than expected".

They did, but in much better territory. Council Councils are their weakest. They did OK in 2013, but they should in opposition be winning a few of them. I think it'll be tough. May will have just invoked Article 50, there'll be a "cake and eat it" plan, and it'll seem fairly heady.

It'll be tough whoever is in charge, but a 3rd place should finish Jez.

Yeah and one of those brilliant alternative candidates will step up and take over. I mean it's been so long since they had a chance to stand.

[Actually Starmer & Thornberry are getting so much chance to shine that they may be in a different place]

Again, I'm not convinced public reaction to invoking A50 will be that euphoric.

One possible benefit to Labour is that it will close off the chimera of the referendum result somehow being ignored/reversed to all but the totally delusional, and help the public to focus on what will actually happen. And on that, the vast majority of Labour is actually united - no to any "hard" Brexit.