Friday 6th January 2017

Post by **refitman** » Fri 06 Jan, 2017 7:10 am

Morning all.

Willow904 · Post by **Willow904** » Fri 06 Jan, 2017 8:55 am

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/201 ... s-tell-may" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Theresa May is being urged to set out her plans for Brexit in more detail or risk losing the backing of moderate Conservatives.

As discussed yesterday, keeping her plans secret isn't exactly going to be easy for Theresa May, if, indeed, that's her intention.

tinybgoat · Post by **tinybgoat** » Fri 06 Jan, 2017 9:02 am

Theresa Maybe, Britain’s indecisive premier
After six months, what the new prime minister stands for is still unclear—perhaps even to her

http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/2 ... rhaps-even
Had trouble getting economist article to open, but good summary of it on 'another angry voice'

http://anotherangryvoice.blogspot.co.ke ... e.html?m=1

Willow904 · Post by **Willow904** » Fri 06 Jan, 2017 9:07 am

https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... its-errors" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

The Bank of England’s chief economist has admitted his profession is in crisis having failed to foresee the 2008 financial crash and having misjudged the impact of the Brexit vote.

Andrew Haldane, said it was “a fair cop” referring to a series of forecasting errors before and after the financial crash which had brought the profession’s reputation into question.

Blaming the failure of economic models to cope with “irrational behaviour” in the modern era, the economist said the profession needed to adapt to regain the trust of the public and politicians.

Economists failed to predict head in sand behaviour of UK businesses and consumers.

An interesting footnote to this article re productivity:

Haldane said: “I’ll give an example of where Britain is punching well below its weight and that’s in core numeracy skills. There are 17 million people who have levels of numeracy that are no better than those expected of primary age children. In a recent OECD study that looked at numeracy as it applies to financial literacy, the UK came 17th, just above Albania, on questions of financial literacy.”

He added that the UK’s lack of numeracy skills across more than half the working population was a key reason for its lack of productivity growth since the financial crisis.

I hadn't come across lack of numeracy as a reason for our lack of productivity before. We are surely one of the few advanced economies that stops teaching maths at 16, however, so there's a solution right there, if only we could wean ourselves off of the early specialisation of A levels.

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Fri 06 Jan, 2017 9:24 am

Morning

https://www.theguardian.com/housing-net ... t#comments" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

January is the cruellest month for families with just 50p to pay the rent
Dawn Foster

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Fri 06 Jan, 2017 9:31 am

https://www.theguardian.com/society/201 ... are_btn_tw" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Half a million older people spend every day alone, poll shows

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Fri 06 Jan, 2017 9:43 am

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-38526285" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Hospitals warn over pressure of patient numbers

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Fri 06 Jan, 2017 9:46 am

https://www.theguardian.com/social-care ... icated-tax" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

For equitable and sustainable social care we need a dedicated tax
Paul Burstow

(Posting/linking does not necessarily mean agreement)

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Fri 06 Jan, 2017 10:30 am

Willow904 wrote:https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... its-errors
The Bank of England’s chief economist has admitted his profession is in crisis having failed to foresee the 2008 financial crash and having misjudged the impact of the Brexit vote.

Andrew Haldane, said it was “a fair cop” referring to a series of forecasting errors before and after the financial crash which had brought the profession’s reputation into question.

Blaming the failure of economic models to cope with “irrational behaviour” in the modern era, the economist said the profession needed to adapt to regain the trust of the public and politicians.
Economists failed to predict head in sand behaviour of UK businesses and consumers.

An interesting footnote to this article re productivity:
Haldane said: “I’ll give an example of where Britain is punching well below its weight and that’s in core numeracy skills. There are 17 million people who have levels of numeracy that are no better than those expected of primary age children. In a recent OECD study that looked at numeracy as it applies to financial literacy, the UK came 17th, just above Albania, on questions of financial literacy.”

He added that the UK’s lack of numeracy skills across more than half the working population was a key reason for its lack of productivity growth since the financial crisis.
I hadn't come across lack of numeracy as a reason for our lack of productivity before. We are surely one of the few advanced economies that stops teaching maths at 16, however, so there's a solution right there, if only we could wean ourselves off of the early specialisation of A levels.

(cJA emphasis)

Interesting number cited

StephenDolan · Post by **StephenDolan** » Fri 06 Jan, 2017 10:30 am

HindleA wrote:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-38526285

Hospitals warn over pressure of patient numbers

Oh I do wish Labour would leave their comfort zone and stop banging on about the crisis in the NHS. It's only immigration that counts to people now. /sarcasm

Morning all btw.

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Fri 06 Jan, 2017 10:31 am

Good-morning, everyone.

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Fri 06 Jan, 2017 10:47 am

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... are_btn_tw" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

What’s wrong with spending your benefits on prosecco? Nothing
Phil McDuff

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Fri 06 Jan, 2017 10:48 am

Benefit cap article appears to understate those affected.

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Fri 06 Jan, 2017 10:50 am

https://www.theguardian.com/environment ... -five-days" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

London breaches annual air pollution limit for 2017 in just five days
Brixton Road in Lambeth has already broken legal limits for toxic air for the entire year, with many other sites across the capital set to follow

RogerOThornhill · Post by **RogerOThornhill** » Fri 06 Jan, 2017 10:52 am

Mornign all.

So many aspects to this. What a mess.

Wakefield trust walkout leaves special measures school in six-year limbo

http://schoolsweek.co.uk/wakefield-trus ... ear-limbo/

A second trust given a slice of £5 million northern academy hub funding has walked away from a school in special measures – meaning it has now been in limbo waiting for a permanent sponsor for six years.

The Wakefield City Academies Trust (WCAT) will no longer sponsor Hanson academy, in Bradford, after it finishes a 12-month “try before you buy” period in which it provided support to the school.

WCAT, which was handed some of £5 million government funding given to five trusts to take over failing schools and drive up standards in the north, has refused to explain why it is now walking away from Hanson.

It is the second of the northern trusts to pull out from schools in the region.

You can see my answer to the comment that tried to pin all the blame on the Foundation and LA which is only partially right.

Foundations were used for the old grant maintained who didn't want to go back to being an LA maintained school.

It, somewhat ironically, shows the government's line about 'autonomy' in academies up to be a lie since the whole point about sponsors taking over failing schools is that they have the legal power to intervene.

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Fri 06 Jan, 2017 11:01 am

https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2017 ... ugh-london" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

'Spat on and ignored': what I've learned from a month sleeping rough in London"

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Fri 06 Jan, 2017 11:06 am

Today is the last day to take your Xmas stuff down, everybody

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Fri 06 Jan, 2017 11:14 am

https://www.theguardian.com/law/2017/ja ... o-10-years" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Maximum sentence for stalking to rise to 10 years

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Fri 06 Jan, 2017 11:15 am

AK,thanks.

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Fri 06 Jan, 2017 11:15 am

Done,apart from Rudolph,doing his annual protest of "A reindeer isn't just for Christmas thing"

StephenDolan · Post by **StephenDolan** » Fri 06 Jan, 2017 11:35 am

'However, a viewer complained to the Trust - the final stage of the BBC complaints process - that the question in the fuller interview with Mr Corbyn was “substantively different” to the one Ms Kuenssberg paraphrased in the news report.'

That's totally unlike Kuenssberg hey?

http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/1500 ... l__report/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Fri 06 Jan, 2017 11:36 am

Modern diesel cars produce 10 times more toxic air pollution than heavy trucks and buses, new European data has revealed.

The stark difference in emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx) is due to the much stricter testing applied to large vehicles
in the EU, according to the researchers behind a new report. They say the same strict measures must be applied to cars.

NOx pollution is responsible for tens of thousands of early deaths across Europe, with the UK suffering a particularly high toll.
Much of the pollution is produced by diesel cars, which on the road emit about six times more than allowed in the official lab-based tests.

- Damian Carrington

https://www.theguardian.com/environment ... data-shows" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

We're living in a time and place where leadership allow lives compromised, endangered and shortened by pollution.
Individual people can't make the necessary changes required for meaningful change. Wealthy nations have resources
and political will enough stockpiling war machines and funding, building other expensive disasters. The necessary changes
saving people and the environment are possible. Government leadership chooses suffering and premature death for people instead.

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Fri 06 Jan, 2017 11:42 am

http://www.disabilitynewsservice.com/op ... -cover-up/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Opposition parties call for inquiry into ministers’ WCA deaths ‘cover-up

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Fri 06 Jan, 2017 12:21 pm

https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... bles-claim" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Southern rail crisis: Grayling backs regulator after 'shambles' claim
Transport secretary denies chief inspector is ‘government place-man’ as union derides report saying driver-only operation is safe

Tubby Isaacs · Post by **Tubby Isaacs** » Fri 06 Jan, 2017 12:40 pm

https://fullfact.org/economy/are-driver ... ains-safe/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

The Rail Safety and Standards Board say Driver Only Operation is safe too.

Tubby Isaacs · Post by **Tubby Isaacs** » Fri 06 Jan, 2017 12:45 pm

Bloke on another reports useless Labour Party admin. Resigned after McDonnell's "Brexit opportunity.. corporate elites" rubbish. Sent email to CLP, who forwarded it to national party and a couple of people talked about trying to convince him not to leave. Sent back to CLP. Then polite but generic email sent to him. How does he know this? The whole internal email exchange was included in the reply. This took weeks.

Joining Lib Dems.

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Fri 06 Jan, 2017 12:56 pm

Worth pointing out that "Labour party admin" is mostly not under the control of the present leadership.

GetYou · Post by **GetYou** » Fri 06 Jan, 2017 12:57 pm

Tubby Isaacs wrote:Bloke on another reports useless Labour Party admin. Resigned after McDonnell's "Brexit opportunity.. corporate elites" rubbish. Sent email to CLP, who forwarded it to national party and a couple of people talked about trying to convince him not to leave. Sent back to CLP. Then polite but generic email sent to him. How does he know this? The whole internal email exchange was included in the reply. This took weeks.

Joining Lib Dems.

I don't understand this. Signing up with the party who got into bed with the Tories because they have better admin?
Yeah, I'm joining the Conservatives because they use a better quality of headed paper darling.

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Fri 06 Jan, 2017 12:58 pm

http://press.labour.org.uk/post/1554794 ... ity-growth" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Labour Press
Tories are failing on productivity growth - Jonathan Reynolds

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Fri 06 Jan, 2017 12:59 pm

And resigning from the party over McDonnell's (admittedly highly stupid) speech - its not actually PARTY POLICY you know!

gilsey · Post by **gilsey** » Fri 06 Jan, 2017 1:01 pm

Willow904 wrote:https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... its-errors

The Bank of England’s chief economist has admitted his profession is in crisis having failed to foresee the 2008 financial crash and having misjudged the impact of the Brexit vote.

I've seen quite a bit of commentary about the Treasury's dire predictions for the post-EUref period being rubbish, but in truth we'll never know. Cameron said he'd press the A50 button the next day, but he didn't. The instant recession predictions might have come true if he had.

Tubby Isaacs · Post by **Tubby Isaacs** » Fri 06 Jan, 2017 1:03 pm

RogerOThornhill wrote:Mornign all.

So many aspects to this. What a mess.

Wakefield trust walkout leaves special measures school in six-year limbo

http://schoolsweek.co.uk/wakefield-trus ... ear-limbo/

A second trust given a slice of £5 million northern academy hub funding has walked away from a school in special measures – meaning it has now been in limbo waiting for a permanent sponsor for six years.

The Wakefield City Academies Trust (WCAT) will no longer sponsor Hanson academy, in Bradford, after it finishes a 12-month “try before you buy” period in which it provided support to the school.

WCAT, which was handed some of £5 million government funding given to five trusts to take over failing schools and drive up standards in the north, has refused to explain why it is now walking away from Hanson.

It is the second of the northern trusts to pull out from schools in the region.
You can see my answer to the comment that tried to pin all the blame on the Foundation and LA which is only partially right.

Foundations were used for the old grant maintained who didn't want to go back to being an LA maintained school.

It, somewhat ironically, shows the government's line about 'autonomy' in academies up to be a lie since the whole point about sponsors taking over failing schools is that they have the legal power to intervene.

Posted a response.

gilsey · Post by **gilsey** » Fri 06 Jan, 2017 1:04 pm

GetYou wrote:
Tubby Isaacs wrote:Bloke on another reports useless Labour Party admin. Resigned after McDonnell's "Brexit opportunity.. corporate elites" rubbish. Sent email to CLP, who forwarded it to national party and a couple of people talked about trying to convince him not to leave. Sent back to CLP. Then polite but generic email sent to him. How does he know this? The whole internal email exchange was included in the reply. This took weeks.

Joining Lib Dems.

I don't understand this. Signing up with the party who got into bed with the Tories because they have better admin?
Yeah, I'm joining the Conservatives because they use a better quality of headed paper darling.

I don't particularly want to make excuses for the Labour Party, but if you're a membership organisation and your numbers double or treble in a short period, it's inevitably going to take a toll on your admin.

Tubby Isaacs · Post by **Tubby Isaacs** » Fri 06 Jan, 2017 1:12 pm

GetYou wrote:
Tubby Isaacs wrote:Bloke on another reports useless Labour Party admin. Resigned after McDonnell's "Brexit opportunity.. corporate elites" rubbish. Sent email to CLP, who forwarded it to national party and a couple of people talked about trying to convince him not to leave. Sent back to CLP. Then polite but generic email sent to him. How does he know this? The whole internal email exchange was included in the reply. This took weeks.

Joining Lib Dems.

I don't understand this. Signing up with the party who got into bed with the Tories because they have better admin?
Yeah, I'm joining the Conservatives because they use a better quality of headed paper darling.

There's a clue in the question why he joined the Lib Dems.

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Fri 06 Jan, 2017 1:12 pm

https://www.theguardian.com/society/201 ... ter-crisis" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Three die at Worcestershire hospital amid NHS winter crisis
One woman reportedly died of heart attack after waiting 35 hours in corridor at ‘extremely busy’ Worcestershire Royal hospital

Tubby Isaacs · Post by **Tubby Isaacs** » Fri 06 Jan, 2017 1:13 pm

gilsey wrote:
GetYou wrote:
Tubby Isaacs wrote:Bloke on another reports useless Labour Party admin. Resigned after McDonnell's "Brexit opportunity.. corporate elites" rubbish. Sent email to CLP, who forwarded it to national party and a couple of people talked about trying to convince him not to leave. Sent back to CLP. Then polite but generic email sent to him. How does he know this? The whole internal email exchange was included in the reply. This took weeks.

Joining Lib Dems.

I don't understand this. Signing up with the party who got into bed with the Tories because they have better admin?
Yeah, I'm joining the Conservatives because they use a better quality of headed paper darling.
I don't particularly want to make excuses for the Labour Party, but if you're a membership organisation and your numbers double or treble in a short period, it's inevitably going to take a toll on your admin.

It shouldn't do- it's not like having a huge increase in train passengers or anything.

Tubby Isaacs · Post by **Tubby Isaacs** » Fri 06 Jan, 2017 1:19 pm

AnatolyKasparov wrote:And resigning from the party over McDonnell's (admittedly highly stupid) speech - its not actually PARTY POLICY you know!

He's the Shadow Chancellor and Corbyn's best mate, not a left over Blairite Minister for Paper Clips. And unrebuked. Tim Farron distanced himself from Vince Cable's drivel promptly.

Tubby Isaacs · Post by **Tubby Isaacs** » Fri 06 Jan, 2017 1:21 pm

I'll put my response on that Schoolsweek story here.

Tubby Isaacs

Hang on.

The DfE handpicked this lot to the tune of £5m. They’re as near as it gets in some areas to a “flagship” chain. I agree with you, it looks like there are deep, longstanding problems. So it could take a few years of incremental improvement, nobody much would criticize that. But this looks like a very rapid failure or government not giving them time. I think of it less as a “market” (Central Government is too involved for it to be one) but like a football manager model.

It might confirm what lots of people suspect- that there are nowhere near enough competent academy chains to drive up standards in the way the government wants.
January 6, 2017 at 1:03 pm

Willow904 · Post by **Willow904** » Fri 06 Jan, 2017 1:38 pm

gilsey wrote:
Willow904 wrote:https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... its-errors

The Bank of England’s chief economist has admitted his profession is in crisis having failed to foresee the 2008 financial crash and having misjudged the impact of the Brexit vote.
I've seen quite a bit of commentary about the Treasury's dire predictions for the post-EUref period being rubbish, but in truth we'll never know. Cameron said he'd press the A50 button the next day, but he didn't. The instant recession predictions might have come true if he had.

I have great sympathy for economists on this as they study economics not human behaviour. They were not to know that the vast majority of people, especially businesses and investors, would react to a Brexit vote by pretending it wasn't really happening. As you say, the triggering of article 50 will be the real test of their predictions, when such head in sand behaviour becomes untenable. There is also a general ignoring of the fact that Carney took prompt actions to try to limit the impact of the vote which seem to have been modestly successful.

Tubby Isaacs · Post by **Tubby Isaacs** » Fri 06 Jan, 2017 1:54 pm

Most economic forecasts were longer term.

Tubby Isaacs · Post by **Tubby Isaacs** » Fri 06 Jan, 2017 1:55 pm

Jonathan Portes ‏@jdportes Jan 5

So UK labour market will be centrally planned by Whitehall based on sectoral lobbying. What could possibly go wrong?

gilsey · Post by **gilsey** » Fri 06 Jan, 2017 1:59 pm

tinybgoat wrote:
Theresa Maybe, Britain’s indecisive premier
After six months, what the new prime minister stands for is still unclear—perhaps even to her
http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/2 ... rhaps-even
Had trouble getting economist article to open, but good summary of it on 'another angry voice'

http://anotherangryvoice.blogspot.co.ke ... e.html?m=1

AAV blog links to a previous post about May, which includes this gem.

talks in mind-numbingly stupid platitudes like "Brexit means Brexit" and "living within our means" as if the public are just a gigantic collection of total halfwits who can be easily fobbed off with ridiculous economic fairy stories and tautological gibberish.

http://anotherangryvoice.blogspot.co.uk ... a-may.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
So far it appears she's right about the public, but we must go on hoping for better things.

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Fri 06 Jan, 2017 2:00 pm

I like Jonathan Portes.

Tubby Isaacs · Post by **Tubby Isaacs** » Fri 06 Jan, 2017 2:03 pm

Simon Jenkins clickbait.

Tubby Isaacs · Post by **Tubby Isaacs** » Fri 06 Jan, 2017 2:07 pm

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... sh-failure" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Economists have completely failed us. They’re no better than Mystic Meg
Simon Jenkins

The predictions were mostly long term. And we haven't started leaving yet. Should be 6 months in.

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Fri 06 Jan, 2017 2:29 pm

Every person must support and/or vote as their conscience dictates.
I remain a Labour party member and encourage everyone to vote, support and join the Labour party.
Though not directly related, I understand 'tactical' voting better now than I did some years ago.
I understand why it's done. We live with imperfect systems in place.

I'm honest and worthy of trust. Without that integrity, nothing I do or say is worth a hill of beans.
I'll be quiet if and when I think it's best for me to do so. I'm not great at gauging when silence or
speaking out is best. I'm not very wise. I grew up listening to magical thinking. My parents were
insane people. I'll tolerate a high level of off-the-wall thinking from others if they're not actively
violent. I'm intuitive. It's a good gift, intuition. I don't switch it on like a light, it's not something
I control. Learning greater tact and wise decision-making takes practice. I continue to practice.

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Fri 06 Jan, 2017 2:33 pm

Tubby Isaacs wrote:https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... sh-failure

Economists have completely failed us. They’re no better than Mystic Meg
Simon Jenkins
The predictions were mostly long term. And we haven't started leaving yet. Should be 6 months in.

Yes! I'm fed up with people who know better being obtuse about that.

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Fri 06 Jan, 2017 2:34 pm

Tubby Isaacs wrote:Simon Jenkins clickbait.

His work has been junk recently.

yahyah · Post by **yahyah** » Fri 06 Jan, 2017 2:42 pm

Sky political correspondent Darren McCaffrey:

''Wondering where Corbyn is ? Well I'm told his 'reboot' as UK Labour leader will happen on Tuesday in a major speech from Essex.''

Tubby Isaacs · Post by **Tubby Isaacs** » Fri 06 Jan, 2017 2:46 pm

Nicola Sturgeon, channels the Sheriff from Blazing Saddles.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... -brexit-eu" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Give us Soft Brexit or we'll go for indy.