Tuesday 21st February 2017

[refitman]

Morning all.

[SpinningHugo]

Copeland sounds squeaky, but with so many local issues on Labour's side should be ok

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... field-seat" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

It'll go Tory in the GE.

[Lost Soul]

Febraury again...so soon !

[SpinningHugo]

Depressing from IFS

https://www.ifs.org.uk/publications/8898" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[citizenJA]

Good-morning, everyone.

[yahyah]

Paul Waugh's report on last night's PLP meeting:

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/j ... cd34c3e3fa" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;?

[yahyah]

French & German growth figures at 69 month & three year high.
UK figures due at 9.30am

https://www.theguardian.com/business/li ... iness-live" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[RogerOThornhill]

French & German growth figures at 69 month & three year high.
UK figures due at 9.30am

https://www.theguardian.com/business/li ... iness-live" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Revised UK growth figures are tomorrow - what was released just now is (are?) the public finances data.

ONS ‏@ONS 7m7 minutes ago
More
Public sector net borrowing (PSNB Ex) was £9.4bn in surplus in Jan 17, biggest surplus since Jan 2000 http://ow.ly/cKQF309ctsu" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governme ... es/jan2017" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Self-assessed tax receipts
In both January and (to a lesser extent) July receipts are particularly high due to the receipt of self-assessed Income Tax, Capital Gains Tax and self-assessed (Class 4) National Insurance contributions.

Self-assessed Income Tax and Capital Gains Tax receipts increased by £2.0 billion to £19.8 billion in January 2017 compared with January 2016; this is the highest January on record (monthly recording of self-assessed tax receipts began in April 1999).

[HindleA]

https://www.theguardian.com/society/201 ... es-slashed" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;



Council funding freeze 'means cuts to many essential services

[PorFavor]

Good morfternoon.

Heterosexual couples should not be allowed civil partnerships, court rules

Rebecca Steinfeld and Charles Keidan, a couple who say traditional marriage is patriarchal, lose court of appeal case (Guardian)

https://www.theguardian.com/society/201 ... ourt-rules

[gilsey]

Britain contingency planning for WTO rules: official
Jim Harra, a top British tax official, told MPs that preparations were underway in case the UK left the EU without a deal.
http://www.politico.eu/article/britain- ... -official/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

HMRC’s current IT system is “not scaled to handle” the volume of customs declarations that would be required if trade from the EU required similar checks to those imposed on non-EU goods, Harra said, but he told MPs that a new customs declarations service was being prepared that would be scaled to cope.

It would be “inevitable” if Britain left the EU without a deal that administration costs for business would increase, he added, suggesting that small businesses that have hitherto traded only within the EU could face the biggest additional costs.

Those business-friendly tories planning to cut red tape again.

[HindleA]

https://www.theguardian.com/careers/201 ... are_btn_tw" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Hidden disabilities at work: 'Everyday I'm fatigued and in pain'

[HindleA]

http://press.labour.org.uk/post/1575232 ... nce-of-the" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;



Labour Press
Misuse of sanctions is further evidence of the Tory Government letting vulnerable groups down - Debbie Abrahams

[HindleA]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-390315 ... ign=buffer" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;


Hospital cuts planned in most of England

[AnatolyKasparov]

Copeland sounds squeaky, but with so many local issues on Labour's side should be ok

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... field-seat" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

It'll go Tory in the GE.

It won't if boundary changes go through, as it will no longer exist in its present form.

[HindleA]

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/educa ... 90481.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;


Teacher shortages at 'crisis' point as pupil numbers set to soar, MPs warn


http://www.parliament.uk/business/commi ... hed-16-17/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[HindleA]

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... e-accounts" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;



High fines: UK pro-cannabis party must pay £23k over late accounts

[RogerOThornhill]

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/educa ... 90481.html


Teacher shortages at 'crisis' point as pupil numbers set to soar, MPs warn


http://www.parliament.uk/business/commi ... hed-16-17/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

As was pointed out this morning, it's not so much recruitment that is the issue (save for Maths and Science) but retention that is the problem. Too many changes in assessment etc - especially in the primary sector.

But having said that we have no problem with either recruiting or retaining - in fact the spend on advertising over the past 4 years is about 30 quid! And that was for our clerk. It's all about offering decent career and professional development...HT has a PhD, 5 teachers with Masters degrees already, and another 5 on their dissertations. A further 10 have started. One teacher with his Masters has started a doctorate.

[PorFavor]

11:57

[Boris]Johnson also told MPs that Brexit should be seen as “Bre-entry” into the world.
(Politics Live, Guardian)

Yes. I've missed the world all this time. "Bre-entry"? I suppose that means "Bre-entry".

[PorFavor]

Britain contingency planning for WTO rules: official
Jim Harra, a top British tax official, told MPs that preparations were underway in case the UK left the EU without a deal.
http://www.politico.eu/article/britain- ... -official/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

HMRC’s current IT system is “not scaled to handle” the volume of customs declarations that would be required if trade from the EU required similar checks to those imposed on non-EU goods, Harra said, but he told MPs that a new customs declarations service was being prepared that would be scaled to cope.

It would be “inevitable” if Britain left the EU without a deal that administration costs for business would increase, he added, suggesting that small businesses that have hitherto traded only within the EU could face the biggest additional costs.

Those business-friendly tories planning to cut red tape again.

And did you read this article, yesterday?

Post-Brexit customs gridlock could choke UK trade, experts warn

Leading tranport[sic] figures urge ministers to act to prevent a return of customs checks leaving UK economy in chaos
(Guardian)

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/201 ... perts-warn

[AnatolyKasparov]

Good morfternoon.

Heterosexual couples should not be allowed civil partnerships, court rules

Rebecca Steinfeld and Charles Keidan, a couple who say traditional marriage is patriarchal, lose court of appeal case (Guardian)

https://www.theguardian.com/society/201 ... ourt-rules

A shame IMO.

Case for new legislation, perhaps?

[HindleA]

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/201 ... heavy-rain" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;



Storm Doris to batter Britain with 80mph winds and heavy rain
Met Office predicts widespread travel disruption and danger of injury from flying debris and warns people to be prepared

[HindleA]

Unsurprisingly,but still disappointingly Government rejects calls/recommendations to introduce a right to time off to care.

[RogerOThornhill]

Oops.

EXCL Humiliation for government as just 10 ex-prison wardens join jail reserve scheme

https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/ho ... rdens-join

The HMPS Reserve Scheme hoped to build a pool of 100 former officers employed on flexible contracts to help ease "operational pressures" in the system.

Chris Grayling began recruiting for the scheme in 2014 when he was still Justice Secretary, but it failed to launch until November the following year.

Ministers have now been forced to admit that it is a long way from meeting its goals.

Answering a written parliamentary question, Justice Minister Lord Keen said "As at 30 September 2016, the date of the most recent published figures, there were 10 prison officer reserves..

Anyone keeping count of all of these clever wheezes that simply don't work?

[yahyah]

More bad news for badgers.
Andrea Leadsom announced widening the cull at the NFU conference this morning.

[Willow904]

Oops.

EXCL Humiliation for government as just 10 ex-prison wardens join jail reserve scheme

https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/ho ... rdens-join

The HMPS Reserve Scheme hoped to build a pool of 100 former officers employed on flexible contracts to help ease "operational pressures" in the system.

Chris Grayling began recruiting for the scheme in 2014 when he was still Justice Secretary, but it failed to launch until November the following year.

Ministers have now been forced to admit that it is a long way from meeting its goals.

Answering a written parliamentary question, Justice Minister Lord Keen said "As at 30 September 2016, the date of the most recent published figures, there were 10 prison officer reserves..

Anyone keeping count of all of these clever wheezes that simply don't work?

Wheezes like this, you mean?

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/630951 ... of-Defence" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

British military reservists hugely undermanned, say army whistleblowers

ARMY reservist units are “woefully undermanned” with only one in ten recruits turning up for duty, whistleblowers said last night.

[AnatolyKasparov]

More bad news for badgers.
Andrea Leadsom announced widening the cull at the NFU conference this morning.

I had almost forgotten about her, too.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Oops.

EXCL Humiliation for government as just 10 ex-prison wardens join jail reserve scheme

https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/ho ... rdens-join

The HMPS Reserve Scheme hoped to build a pool of 100 former officers employed on flexible contracts to help ease "operational pressures" in the system.

Chris Grayling began recruiting for the scheme in 2014 when he was still Justice Secretary, but it failed to launch until November the following year.

Ministers have now been forced to admit that it is a long way from meeting its goals.

Answering a written parliamentary question, Justice Minister Lord Keen said "As at 30 September 2016, the date of the most recent published figures, there were 10 prison officer reserves..

Anyone keeping count of all of these clever wheezes that simply don't work?

It's always the same wheeze. Scheme launched to distract from big picture, goes nowhere.

[Tubby Isaacs]

11:57

[Boris]Johnson also told MPs that Brexit should be seen as “Bre-entry” into the world.
(Politics Live, Guardian)

Yes. I've missed the world all this time. "Bre-entry"? I suppose that means "Bre-entry".

Boris Johnson, yesterday,

[SpinningHugo]

Looks like an easy win in Stoke, with Ukips coming third. Postal voting brutal

http://uk.businessinsider.com/ukip-face ... aim-2017-2" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[Tubby Isaacs]

https://www.railnews.co.uk/news/2017/02 ... k-hs2.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

FoE is unhappy for a different reason -- the lack of a connection between HS2 and HS1. FoE director Craig Bennett told the BBC: "We think the money would be much better spent on a range of much smaller sustainable transport infrastructure projects to deliver real improvements to regular commuters and other train travellers over a far quicker timescale."

That's exactly what's happening anyway.

[SpinningHugo]

Though the Tories odds in Stoke have shortened dramatically from 50/1

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/bri ... ning-party" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Labour need to worry about the Tories not Ukips, who are a spent force. Nuttall is just a bad joke.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Other recent rail news.

http://www.railmagazine.com/news/networ ... -confirmed" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Trenitalia buys c2c from National Express. Its franchise runs till 2029.

There's a big trend towards foreign governments running rail franchises now. It's a strange situation, but it does suggest that franchises aren't a licence to print money. Cost of capital has to be low to make any money. And they can doubtless learn a lot from all the new stuff happening in rail here.

Whether state operators are enough to provide competition for bids in the future, I don't know.

[AnatolyKasparov]

Though the Tories odds in Stoke have shortened dramatically from 50/1

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/bri ... ning-party" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Labour need to worry about the Tories not Ukips, who are a spent force. Nuttall is just a bad joke.

I suspect at least some the Tory move is a knee jerk reaction to May's visit yesterday - "it means the Tories must think they are in with a chance".

Of second place, that is........

Another possible pointer is that there are almost no Tory posters up by all accounts - Labour leads the way there, but both UKIP and the LibDems have some.

[PorFavor]

Good morfternoon.

Heterosexual couples should not be allowed civil partnerships, court rules

Rebecca Steinfeld and Charles Keidan, a couple who say traditional marriage is patriarchal, lose court of appeal case (Guardian)

https://www.theguardian.com/society/201 ... ourt-rules

A shame IMO.

Case for new legislation, perhaps?

Yes. I think the court was more or less suggesting that it was necessary.

[PorFavor]

Though the Tories odds in Stoke have shortened dramatically from 50/1

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/bri ... ning-party" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Labour need to worry about the Tories not Ukips, who are a spent force. Nuttall is just a bad joke.

I suspect at least some the Tory move is a knee jerk reaction to May's visit yesterday - "it means the Tories must think they are in with a chance".

Of second place, that is........

Another possible pointer is that there are almost no Tory posters up by all accounts - Labour leads the way there, but both UKIP and the LibDems have some.

I wonder if Doris will affect things much.

[PorFavor]

The Labour peer and QC Lady Kennedy of the Shaws rejected the claim that peers simply had to accept the result of the referendum, saying this was a “degrading of public discourse and a poisoning of honest debate”. She went on:

I will support vital amendments and if they aren’t accepted I’m going to vote against this bill. This House should be urging a rethink on this whole project. This House should be saying: not in our name.
(Politics Live, Guardian)

[SpinningHugo]

Though the Tories odds in Stoke have shortened dramatically from 50/1

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/bri ... ning-party" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Labour need to worry about the Tories not Ukips, who are a spent force. Nuttall is just a bad joke.

I suspect at least some the Tory move is a knee jerk reaction to May's visit yesterday - "it means the Tories must think they are in with a chance".

Of second place, that is........

Another possible pointer is that there are almost no Tory posters up by all accounts - Labour leads the way there, but both UKIP and the LibDems have some.

I suspect it is more to do with Ukips obvious collapse. Their vote will drift back to the Tories. Labour first, Tories second, Ukips 3rd.

Labour really ought to be holding Stoke Central mind you....

As with all of the local election by-elections, the issues will be more local than in a GE, and that masks structural weaknesses.

May local elections could be a bit brutal though. Aren't those the ones last contested in 2012? Labour was well ahead then, as it should be 2 years into a Parliament as opposition. The years after this should be easier for Corbyn as Labour then fell away quite quickly.

[citizenJA]

Looks like an easy win in Stoke, with Ukips coming third. Postal voting brutal

http://uk.businessinsider.com/ukip-face ... aim-2017-2" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Labour in Stoke and Labour people from all over the country work hard, it's not easy. We won't know the result until after the 23rd.

[citizenJA]

The Labour peer and QC Lady Kennedy of the Shaws rejected the claim that peers simply had to accept the result of the referendum, saying this was a “degrading of public discourse and a poisoning of honest debate”. She went on:

I will support vital amendments and if they aren’t accepted I’m going to vote against this bill. This House should be urging a rethink on this whole project. This House should be saying: not in our name.
(Politics Live, Guardian)

Praise the Lords

[citizenJA]

Though the Tories odds in Stoke have shortened dramatically from 50/1

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/bri ... ning-party" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Labour need to worry about the Tories not Ukips, who are a spent force. Nuttall is just a bad joke.

I suspect at least some the Tory move is a knee jerk reaction to May's visit yesterday - "it means the Tories must think they are in with a chance".

Of second place, that is........

Another possible pointer is that there are almost no Tory posters up by all accounts - Labour leads the way there, but both UKIP and the LibDems have some.

I suspect it is more to do with Ukips obvious collapse. Their vote will drift back to the Tories. Labour first, Tories second, Ukips 3rd.

Labour really ought to be holding Stoke Central mind you....

As with all of the local election by-elections, the issues will be more local than in a GE, and that masks structural weaknesses.

May local elections could be a bit brutal though. Aren't those the ones last contested in 2012? Labour was well ahead then, as it should be 2 years into a Parliament as opposition. The years after this should be easier for Corbyn as Labour then fell away quite quickly.

(cJA edit)

'as with all the local election by-election, the issues will be more local than in a GE...'
If you ignored the UKIP candidate, media barrage, EU referendum result and a visit from the PM who'd not normally notice or care if Stoke and people living here disappeared I might agree with that.

[AnatolyKasparov]

Seven local council byelections last week:

Cheshire East - a gain for the localist Bollington First grouping from the Tories in a two member ward split between them two years ago, with just over half the vote and a swing of 15%. Four years earlier in 2011 two Tories had been returned, but BF were only just behind. Back then Labour had been a close third, but they fell back on GE day and dropped about another 10 points now as voters seemingly moved behind the best placed non-Tory candidate. LibDems not far behind on 10%, almost unchanged on GE day but well short of the levels they could get on the old Macclesfield DC when they could actually win in a good year. Greens last but with almost 9%, decent for their first showing here.

East Staffordshire DC - LibDem hold in this single member ward, meaning they retain their one seat on the council. This ward voted Labour in 2003, but the LibDems gained it four years later and consolidated their grip in the following two elections despite the less favourable national climate for the party by then. That trend continued now, a 5 point swing to the yellows meaning they took over half the vote and beat Labour by over two to one. Tories came third here even back in 2003, and went one worse now as they were pipped by UKIP who stood here for the first time and took nearly 12% whilst the Tories endured a double figure decrease.

Uttlesford DC - a rare double elections saw something also fairly unusual recently, a LibDem loss as they dropped both the seats they were defending to a local Residents group (who had some successes elsewhere in this borough two years ago but did not stand here) That was the first election here on new boundaries, but this area was previously a LibDem stronghold going back to the turn of the century so the scale of their defeat - Residents took nearly 60 per cent whilst the LibDems dropped by 23 points and saw their share more than halved - has to raise some eyebrows, and as often is the case local factors seem to have played a part; in this case opposition to proposed housing development locally (the runner up in 2015, ahead of the Tories, had been an Independent campaigning on this issue - they were one of the Residents winners now) Tories down to 10%, more than halved - whilst UKIP got just 5% trying their luck here, that was however enough to overtake Labour who also dropped from their GE day score. Despite the local issues at play, a pair of Greens came last, gaining just 8 and 6 votes respectively.

Dudley - Labour hold of a safe ward with 60 per cent and a tiny swing from UKIP since last year. This is a council where UKIP got organised earlier than most, and that shows in the results here - whilst they have never won or indeed really come that close to challenging Labour, they have come second in every election since their first showing in 2006 with the sole exception of GE day in 2010 when the Tories edged them out for second (and their candidate then later defected to UKIP and was elected to the council elsewhere in their new colours) Going back, there was a small swing to UKIP from the 2015, but a swing of about 8% since UKIP annus mirabilis in 2014 - they were down about 2% on last May. Tories on 10%, very little changed - Greens last on 2%, they did not stand last year but this is a bit down on previous showings in the 2011-15 period.

Oldham - Labour hold in a normally safe ward (only exception since the 2004 all out elections was in 2008 when the Tories won by a handful of votes, something they have not since come close to repeating) with well over half the vote, though this was down 7 points on last year when they approached two thirds. Partly this was due to UKIP not standing then, but the second placed Tories still managed to edge upwards from then despite this. UKIP first stood here in a previous mid-2012 byelection and took a distant second, they than ran Labour fairly close in their 2014 "wave" before falling back badly on GE day - and the less than 12% they managed now was halved even from then. Greens down on last May, as were the LibDems who came last with just 1% - their recent revival clearly has not reached everywhere yet

Forest of Dean DC - this saw that once in a blue moon event, not just a Green gain but one from their supposed ideological opposites UKIP. As may not come as a surprise given that outcome, this ward has a fairly convoluted recent electoral history - two years ago it split 1Ind/1Lab/1UKIP (in that order) and the 2011, 2007 and 2003 elections all saw the same outcome; 1Ind/2Lab with the Independent (as last time) topping the poll. Greens had actually polled respectably here on GE day in what was a close race overall - their sole candidate finishing ahead of the last placed Tory and Labour hopefuls - but their winning share of 35% was still over double what they had achieved then. Tories weren't far behind the second placed UKIP candidate in 2015 (and actually beat the third Labour candidate, who polled much less well than their two running mates for some reason) and can perhaps be satisfied with a 7 point increase moving them clearly into second spot. Labour only increased slightly and were relegated to third - they will probably have hoped for better, but it seems likely quite a few of their possible voters plumped for the Green this time. UKIP were the unequivocal losers, their 11 per cent barely half of what they had achieved last time. LibDems stood here for the first time this century, but last place with less than 7% again showed that their recent resurgence is an uneven thing.

Wokingham, finally a Friday contest provided the LibDems with much their best news of the week as they gained a seat from the Tories with almost 60 per cent and a swing of over 13 per cent. This ward safely returned 3 Tory councillors in the 2004 all-out elections, and for the following decade it remained safe for them even though the LibDems almost invariably came second - until 2012 when they slumped to 4th and last. What followed couldn't really have been predicted then - following a local controversy the LibDems had a go in the 2014 elections and very nearly won. It was still close even on GE day, and then last year the LibDems only fell short by a handful of votes again; so while this win was (unlike some recent LibDem triumphs) fairly forseeable, the scale - trouncing the Tories by almost 2 to 1 - was still impressive. Prior to last year UKIP had fought this ward in every election since 2004, 9 elections in a row overall - an impressive record for them; but they may have wished they hadn't re-entered the fray here as their 4 per cent was well short of many of those showings. They did beat Labour, though, as the latter saw their (always pretty meagre) share here more than halved.

Four contests this week, one today and then three on "Super Thursday".

[HindleA]

https://www.gov.uk/government/consultat ... ation-levy" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;


Open consultation
The passenger rail public service obligation levy

[HindleA]

" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;



Delivering real results for Londoners

[yahyah]

Lord Butler of Brockwell, a former Cabinet Secretary and crossbencher, has told the Lords the public should get a vote on the final Brexit deal.

Well done that man. He seems to be able to distinguish between a 're-run of June 23rd's vote' and a vote on the final Brexit deal. Not that difficult, but as Willow said the other day about something related, you have to be inclined to it.

[gilsey]

I hope those on twitter are following Simon Schama lately, he's brilliant on Trump.
" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[RogerOThornhill]

Looks like there is a NAO report out tomorrow about free schools...Toby Young is getting a little twitchy about it. The tweets embedded here were quickly deleted after Freddie Whittaker tweeted back.

" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[AnatolyKasparov]

May local elections could be a bit brutal though. Aren't those the ones last contested in 2012? Labour was well ahead then, as it should be 2 years into a Parliament as opposition. The years after this should be easier for Corbyn as Labour then fell away quite quickly.

Well, no - not in England anyway (which was the large majority of them) Those were, of course, defended last year with only minimal losses for Labour overall.

There are local elections in both Scotland and Wales which were last fought then, having said that. Of the former the less said the better (though Labour's epoch making collapse since then can't really be blamed on Corbyn - even by the likes of you - and having those elections by STV will lessen the scale of the cull anyway) Wales could be interesting though, if you are looking for genuine Labour weakness (or not, possibly)

The elections in England this May (county councils mostly, plus a few unitaries) could still be brutal, of course, but for UKIP more than Labour (who generally, as you indicated, performed a tad underwhelmingly) It was the big kipper breakthrough nationwide, so they have a fair bit to lose. And its not impossible they could end up losing most of it, and ending up on the margins again (outside Essex, Kent and Lincs anyway)

[Willow904]

Lord Butler of Brockwell, a former Cabinet Secretary and crossbencher, has told the Lords the public should get a vote on the final Brexit deal.

Well done that man. He seems to be able to distinguish between a 're-run of June 23rd's vote' and a vote on the final Brexit deal. Not that difficult, but as Willow said the other day about something related, you have to be inclined to it.

There is the danger with a further referendum that people will vote with as little applied thought as they did the first time, but at least they will be voting for something rather than not for something, if you get my drift.

The last EU referendum was like asking people if they wanted to give up FPTP or not, with no concrete indication of what it would be replaced with, just a lot of waffle about how you could have PR or you could have AV or you could an electoral college system like the States or, you know, anything you like really, we'll just make that bit up once we've had the referendum.....

[yahyah]

From the link that Gilsey posted:

" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Not sure whether to , or

What does it even mean ?
''If properly done it's a meaning that's as big as anything there is''

''those states where I won by double, double, double digits'' Trump's version of the Rule of Three ?